Dr. Slater's probabilistic model (based on ice concentration AFAIK) is giving this projection for the last days of August :
Couple of interesting observations from this projection based on this model :
- There is about 50% chance that the North-West passage will open up at the end of August
- There is less than 20% chance that the North-East passage will open up at the end of August
- There appears to be about 70% chance that a large chunk of ice in the ESS may be cut off from the main pack
- Looks like we are going into September with 4.3 M km^2 ice left, which hints at a September minimum of about 4.1 or 4.2.
- And really cool : That little red spot in the Beaufort is A-team's "Big Block" and Slater's model gives it 50% of surviving August
Of course, this is a model and, to quote Nils Bohr, predictions are hard to make, especially when pertaining to the future.
But Dr. Slater's model was spot-on last year.
P.S. Newbee question : How do I upload a picture in a forum post (rather than inserting it as a link) ?
[edit] I think I figured it out. You can upload a picture in a forum post using the "Attachments and other options" tag. But the picture will appear at the end of your post, and you cannot add any text after that. Did I get that right ?