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werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3700 on: July 29, 2016, 11:46:30 PM »
On SST's. Can't remember having seen +8dC readings in the NE-Barentsz Sea. On MODIS there's extreme blue-green colouring of algae visible (which could be related to the high SST's).

It was V. Petoukhov back in '10 who suggested a relation between very low sea ice extent in the Barentsz-Kara sector and greater possibility of severe winter outbreaks in N-NE Europe.
He based it on the '05-'06 winter. It provoked strong anticyclonic weather later in winter.
Something similar occurred '09-'10, '10-'11 and '11-'12. But everything is in such turmoil that it's hard to filter out a pattern. Extreme anomalous SST's in early winter could very well present us with a new nasty surprise.

PS having watched the latest UniBremen pic, I noticed that the 'ice-arm' into the ESS/up to Wrangel Island (a common feature in former summers) is now responding to cyclone-alley. And the stretch of the 'ice-arm' is almost exactly on the axis of the +7-+9dC winter anomaly.
I fear that the arm won't be able to stand much more disturbance...

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3701 on: July 29, 2016, 11:58:07 PM »
On SST's. Can't remember having seen +8dC readings in the NE-Barentsz Sea. On MODIS there's extreme blue-green colouring of algae visible (which could be related to the high SST's).
From Neven's graphic, I'm struck by the significant heat in the Bering as well, which weatherwise I think will have much greater effect than similarly high SST's in the Chukchi, as they will persist far longer into the fall and winter, with similar unknown but undoubted influence on the weather.

Again, at the least, the heat there will provide a boost for cyclones rolling up the Asian eastern seaboard.
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werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3702 on: July 30, 2016, 12:07:22 AM »
Back in fall '11 I wrote about the then extreme anomalous SST's in the same sector. It could be that this year the anomaly will be even bigger.
I mused on the effects when all that heat would be released to the atmosphere in first winter's darkness:
One: it influences/strengthens existing Rossby-wave patterns, carrying blockades
Two: it disrupts normal lower tropospheric flow through a strong cyclonic pattern (snow in Europe!) Three: it influences the latitudinal circulation in the Polar Cell, strengthening the Polar low level high. In december the AO should return to negative. Fiercely.

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3703 on: July 30, 2016, 12:21:24 AM »
Could you please elaborate a little?  Which causality exists between the situation in Barents/Kara and the European winter?

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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3704 on: July 30, 2016, 12:40:37 AM »
Beaufort SST anomalies in 2012, wow.
The lower SSTs this year respond to the direct bottom melting that keeps taking heat from the open ocean. Since June MYI ice has been steadily advected into the Beaufort. In 2012 Beaufort ice retreat was mostly due to insolation and compaction, leaving the open ocean behind, warming up. Ice was pushed away. That is two completely different ways to lose ice.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3705 on: July 30, 2016, 01:40:22 AM »
Yes, I agree. There are two ways for the atmosphere condition to influence the ice melt. One way for melting is to compact the ice by the northward wind(usually dominant by high pressure). The melting pond absorb the solar radiation together with the warm air to heat up the ice . Another way is to break up the ice and dispersing the ice floes southward(dominant by cyclone). It is widely accepted that the ice is much more fragile to resist the stretch than compact. The broken ice concentration is low and the heat transfer is enhanced as increasing perihery contacted with air and sea water. If a northward wind occurs(occupied by high pressure), the lower concentration and the warm air will push the melt rate to a local maximum. This year the arctic is influenced by cyclone and high pressure in turn. The frequent dispersion and compaction ice behavior weaken the ice. More and more an important factor in the coming week.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3706 on: July 30, 2016, 03:48:53 AM »
The weather predicted by ECMWF shows a trend that high pressure will gradually take over the Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukichi sea(considering the accuracy of six day prediction, only a trend). The Arctic Oscillation shows there will be a negative value in coming weeks which means the high pressure and warm air will push the storm southward.

Just as I have mentioned before, the storms break and disperse the ice. The warm air and sea water eat the ice. It is absolutely a great high efficiency of melting weather condition with the combination of storm and warm air occurs in turn. Whether the sea ice extent will break the record of 2012, the coming week is a decisive battle.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3707 on: July 30, 2016, 04:44:02 AM »
Nice clear 7/29/2016 shot of the Lincoln Sea approaches to Nares strait.  The strait is completely open, and ice from the Lincoln is now being exported to Baffin.  Detail shows just how broken up this ice is, and vulnerable to any sort of force.
...

From the Nares Strait Flushing Poll thread, ice that overwintered in the Lincoln Sea is just now approaching Kane Basin.  The first "Lincoln Sea ice" has about 300 km to go to reach Baffin Bay which may take 10 - 15 days. OF course, as you wrote, ice is being exported to Baffin Bay and it is all broken into small floes. 

In my mind, I regularly contrast this year's experience with what happened in winter of 2006-07 when Nares Strait never closed - ice was exported all winter, spring, summer and autumn (then closed up for the winter of 2007-08).  I wonder how much this contributed to that record year's ice loss.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3708 on: July 30, 2016, 08:36:19 AM »
Just a quick note :
At this time, high albedo surface will cool down, while low albedo surface warms up.
A quick check using Andreas numbers of radiative balance suggests that at this time the break-even point is at 0.8 albedo. This number will go down as we move into August, but by looking at a typical picture of the melting zone :



(this one from the Healy at 76 N)
this suggests that the ice is still quite "pristine" (high albedo) and thus it will no longer top-melt so easily, but the (low albedo) open water is still absorbing a lot of heat which will warm up the ocean and cause bottom melt for quite a while.

In general, with these lows dominating the Arctic since early June, I feel that bottom-melt caused by heat absorbed by open water, appears to be the dominant source of melting this year.
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JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3709 on: July 30, 2016, 10:17:08 AM »
July 25/ 1434z - July 29/2313z

Roughly 105 hours.  The persistent vertically stacked, and occluded cyclone affords few opportunities to see through the clouds.  One can get a few glimpses, but not enough to make much of an assessment. 

All imagery courtesy of the SUOMI/VIIRS and the university of Alaska at fairbanks.
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?commit=Search&search%5Bend%5D=&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B4%5D=1&search%5Bstart%5D=&utf8=
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3710 on: July 30, 2016, 10:43:11 AM »
This year will probably go down as a below average melt year, weather forcing wise, yet the volume of ice we will see lost will still be very high. I'm sure that as we move toward a seasonally ice free basin the ice/basin 'conditions itself' for just that so volumes that were not able to melt out in past times will be able to melt over 'average' weather melt seasons?

A thinning of the pack, a younging up of the ice, a continual warming of the waters in the upper horizons of the ocean and alterations to the workings in the atmosphere above over the year all make 'melt out' ever more achievable.

I remember that whilst other were mouthing 'recovery' in the years after 2007 I was busy being stunned at the volumes 'average' weather melt seasons lost. 2010's volume losses were not made during a 'perfect melt storm' year but a pretty 'average' kinda year?

For me 2016 was always going to be the year that gave us the ice cover to possibly face the earliest return of the 'Perfect Melt Storm' synoptics in 2017. The amount of FY ice ( as a percentage of the pack) and the 2016/17 winter thickening might provide us with a pack that has to face a 2007 type melt season with high export and melt. How would this year have fared under such forcings?
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3711 on: July 30, 2016, 11:12:24 AM »
This year will probably go down as a below average melt year, weather forcing wise, yet the volume of ice we will see lost will still be very high. I'm sure that as we move toward a seasonally ice free basin the ice/basin 'conditions itself' for just that so volumes that were not able to melt out in past times will be able to melt over 'average' weather melt seasons?

A thinning of the pack, a younging up of the ice, a continual warming of the waters in the upper horizons of the ocean and alterations to the workings in the atmosphere above over the year all make 'melt out' ever more achievable.

I remember that whilst other were mouthing 'recovery' in the years after 2007 I was busy being stunned at the volumes 'average' weather melt seasons lost. 2010's volume losses were not made during a 'perfect melt storm' year but a pretty 'average' kinda year?

For me 2016 was always going to be the year that gave us the ice cover to possibly face the earliest return of the 'Perfect Melt Storm' synoptics in 2017. The amount of FY ice ( as a percentage of the pack) and the 2016/17 winter thickening might provide us with a pack that has to face a 2007 type melt season with high export and melt. How would this year have fared under such forcings?

just a brief popping up in between to remind about who said what:

my "poof" theory, first mentioned in may 2016 is obviously becoming true, nice to see that more and more
members get aware of it, just was a bit of an energy consuming discussion when it was obvious only for a few.

looking at uni-hamburg concentration image each user who is here longer than 2-3 years can clearly predict
which ice will be gone and it's more than 40% of the remaining extent per today. except in case of extremely cold weather conditions of course, weather is always the remaining unknown factor.

the key IMO was fragmentation and the far underestimated lack of thickness (by many if not most ) it's absolutely logical that if the ice is dozens of centimeters thinner that it will be gone a lot earlier, despite of the fact that melting conditions were not favouring extreme melt in the CAB ( there were events but in general it was on the average to cooler side with relative little insolation )

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png


peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3712 on: July 30, 2016, 12:49:37 PM »
This year will probably go down as a below average melt year, weather forcing wise, yet the volume of ice we will see lost will still be very high. I'm sure that as we move toward a seasonally ice free basin the ice/basin 'conditions itself' for just that so volumes that were not able to melt out in past times will be able to melt over 'average' weather melt seasons?

A thinning of the pack, a younging up of the ice, a continual warming of the waters in the upper horizons of the ocean and alterations to the workings in the atmosphere above over the year all make 'melt out' ever more achievable.

I remember that whilst other were mouthing 'recovery' in the years after 2007 I was busy being stunned at the volumes 'average' weather melt seasons lost. 2010's volume losses were not made during a 'perfect melt storm' year but a pretty 'average' kinda year?

For me 2016 was always going to be the year that gave us the ice cover to possibly face the earliest return of the 'Perfect Melt Storm' synoptics in 2017. The amount of FY ice ( as a percentage of the pack) and the 2016/17 winter thickening might provide us with a pack that has to face a 2007 type melt season with high export and melt. How would this year have fared under such forcings?

just a brief popping up in between to remind about who said what:

my "poof" theory, first mentioned in may 2016 is obviously becoming true, nice to see that more and more
members get aware of it, just was a bit of an energy consuming discussion when it was obvious only for a few.

looking at uni-hamburg concentration image each user who is here longer than 2-3 years can clearly predict
which ice will be gone and it's more than 40% of the remaining extent per today. except in case of extremely cold weather conditions of course, weather is always the remaining unknown factor.

the key IMO was fragmentation and the far underestimated lack of thickness (by many if not most ) it's absolutely logical that if the ice is dozens of centimeters thinner that it will be gone a lot earlier, despite of the fact that melting conditions were not favouring extreme melt in the CAB ( there were events but in general it was on the average to cooler side with relative little insolation )

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png



The vulnerable thin ice will probably not survive a lot in the future. You see after the cliff since 2007, what happens to the sea ice. There is no statistical average return even the weather is favorable to the sea ice. The new era of arctic sea ice may cannot resist any weather pattern. As the increasing evaporation from the arctic open sea in summer, the stormy becomes a trend just like the other ocean in the world(of course, the only sea without tropical cyclone)The peace but high presure domiant, nope! The cold but stormy weather, nope! All these weather pattern will contribute melting in different ways.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3713 on: July 30, 2016, 01:53:59 PM »
If that comes to happen, would that also push the warm waters from the Kara into the Laptev?
There were clear skies in the Severnaya Zemlya, these images are from Worldview, July 28 and 29. Wind is indeed driving ice and water from Kara into the Laptev. It is 15-20km of drift in a single day but not sure if this will persist. There is also a sinuous band of previously opened water, perhaps glacier discharge instead of ocean current?.
The ice in this part of the Laptev sea is broken but very dense, I would not be surprised at all if it does not open up this year.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2016, 02:19:25 PM by seaicesailor »

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3714 on: July 30, 2016, 03:45:31 PM »
Yes, Seaicesailor, in September the ice could very much look like 2007 - but with significant less volumen and consistence.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3715 on: July 30, 2016, 04:08:03 PM »
Now that export toward Fram and Svalbard is increasing a lot (and if the wild forecasts came to happen we may have more in August), it is interesting to verify if the West Spitsbergen current is keeping its strength and level of SST. It seems so (courtesy of the NRL):



FWIW, the glb HYCOM+CICE www. contains verification of temperature and salinity computations by comparing them against satellite observations at different regions of the globe. Not sure what the rms and bias plots mean but it is worth comparing performance in Atlantic and Pacific regions with Arctic regions.
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/observations.html

@ Thawing Thunder no open seas, no insolation or warmth for months. I can imagine only sustained winds from the continent could open it up

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3716 on: July 30, 2016, 05:59:38 PM »
For me 2016 was always going to be the year that gave us the ice cover to possibly face the earliest return of the 'Perfect Melt Storm' synoptics in 2017.

I've been saying that all year too.

I wonder if we will see a rapid pick up of melt in August or not?  That might just be enough to drive it well into top 3 territory this year.  But my expectation is it will finish somewhere about 4th.

too much depends on the weather to tell with any certainty and the weather has been, to put it mildly, changeable.
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3717 on: July 30, 2016, 09:06:58 PM »
I wonder if we will see a rapid pick up of melt in August or not?  That might just be enough to drive it well into top 3 territory this year.  But my expectation is it will finish somewhere about 4th.

I wouldn't be surprised if NSIDC extent finished 4th, but I would be surprised if Wipneus' home-brew area isn't in the top 3, and 1st seems about as likely as 4th to me.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3718 on: July 30, 2016, 10:34:43 PM »
My (gut-)feeling is, there is an ugly August to happen. The last days IMO showed a big growth in poof-potential and if 2016 still holds up to 2012 in one week from now, everything is possible. So the final extend may be 4th but area and volumen should compete for the podium and even the first place.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 01:19:05 AM by Thawing Thunder »
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3719 on: July 30, 2016, 10:44:53 PM »
The ice this year in the Siberian is starting to look a lot like a slushie.  Note that although the coverage is reasonably solid it is very hard to find any floes that are bigger than a pixel, with some to be found towards the bottom right.

In contrast the Siberian sector in 2012 looked like fairy floss.

Even if we did get a great arctic cyclone this year, would the ice disappear as fast as it did in 2012?
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meddoc

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3720 on: July 30, 2016, 11:18:32 PM »

Reggie

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3721 on: July 31, 2016, 12:44:25 AM »

12Patrick

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3722 on: July 31, 2016, 02:34:25 AM »
It is working fine with this link

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Says my connection is not private..

Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3723 on: July 31, 2016, 03:06:03 AM »
Says my connection is not private..

Finally, a question in my discipline. :p  They've configured their website to present credentials that are issued by an internal DISA authority.  Browsers will reject any credential that isn't derived from a chain of authority that ultimately pays a yearly extortion fee because Verisign yachts.

This issuer hasn't done that song and dance, so your browser is warning you.  Always be cautious when bending the rules, but sea ice animations in .mil would be a Rube Goldberg attack vector.  Not impossible and you "should check", but...

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3724 on: July 31, 2016, 04:12:31 AM »
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3725 on: July 31, 2016, 05:27:23 AM »
Cause for concern from today's SIC Polarview map by University of Bremen?

Understood already from previous days that the Siberian, Alaskan and Atlantic sides are disintegrating. That happens in other years as well.

But look at the remaining side: the 'sanctuary' side off the Canadian Arctic Coast. Ice is seen leaking out the Nares Strait - which is too narrow to drain the sanctuary in a single season - and that is also not unusual. The feature that does look unusual to me is that the region of sanctuary around the Nares Strait entrance is showing as yellow and then, going away from the entrance, that progresses to red, light crimson and then a solid band of dark crimson indicating a band of 100% concentration extending all the way from the Alaskan side to the Atlantic side of the sanctuary.

  That indicates to me that, even in the sanctuary, the ice pack has little mechanical strength and is moving with the winds. The low pressure system has dispersed the ice around the Nares Strait entrance and pushed it over towards a high concentration band.

   I've seen it everywhere else in the Arctic in previous years but can't remember it having been so obvious in the sanctuary region for thicker ice.

  Likely it's happened and I just haven't remembered it. However, I don't see it in as clearly in previous years on the representative dates I checked in Neven's year-to-year comparison webpage. Here is the link and graphic for 1 August (but is 30 July for this year, 2016):
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0801

The dispersed region of sanctuary is arrowed and labelled "1".
The 100% concentration band across the sanctuary is arrowed and labelled "2".
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 05:33:32 AM by slow wing »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3726 on: July 31, 2016, 05:27:41 AM »
Down 88,053 km2 today. Biggest in a few days now. Starting look like we are going to land somewhere in the middle.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3727 on: July 31, 2016, 05:37:44 AM »
Cause for concern from today's SIC Polarview map by University of Bremen?

Understood already from previous days that the Siberian, Alaskan and Atlantic sides are disintegrating. That happens in other years as well.

But look at the remaining side: the 'sanctuary' side off the Canadian Arctic Coast. Ice is seen leaking out the Nares Strait - which is too narrow to drain the sanctuary in a single season - and that is also not unusual. The feature that does look unusual to me is that the whole region of sanctuary around the Nares Strait entrance is showing as yellow and then, going away from the entrance, that progresses to red, light crimson and then a solid band of dark crimson indicating a band of 100% concentration extending all the way from the Alaskan side to the Atlantic side of the sanctuary.

  That indicates to me that, even in the sanctuary, the ice pack has little mechanical strength and is moving with the winds. The low pressure system has dispersed the ice around the Nares Strait entrance and pushed it over towards a high concentration band.

   I've seen it everywhere else in the Arctic in previous years but can't remember it having been so obvious in the sanctuary region for thicker ice.

  Likely it's happened and I just haven't remembered it. However, I don't see it in as clearly in previous years on the representative dates I checked in Neven's year-to-year comparison webpage. Here is the link and graphic for 1 August (but is 30 July for this year, 2016):
I have said before and still believe that not only is Nare's opening up allowing ice to move south, but also warm water to mix northward. That combined with the dispersion could work as a one-two combo.
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epiphyte

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3728 on: July 31, 2016, 06:54:33 AM »

just a brief popping up in between to remind about who said what:

my "poof" theory, first mentioned in may 2016 is obviously becoming true, nice to see that more and more
members get aware of it, just was a bit of an energy consuming discussion when it was obvious only for a few.


In the spirit of suppressing, rather than succumbing to, the fit of ego-stroking that seems to be going on around here these days, I beg to differ. Viz:

          http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/08/poof-its-gone.html

This in particular was no less (or more) true back then than it is now:

Quote
It troubles me that so much weight is given to the rate of decline in area+extent as an indicator of the progress of the melt season. I think that this is becoming less and less relevant as the volume distribution becomes more even every year - I.e. you would expect that the year there is an ice-free September, there might still be a very high percentage of the April area/extent in early August.

Here today, gone tomorrow. I'm not saying it's this year - but on the year it happens, it will happen fast - and IMO anyone tracking progress by comparison with past years CT area decline will be very surprised to see it go.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3729 on: July 31, 2016, 09:09:12 AM »
for comparison

Thank you, Jai!
[edit: A little additional investigation comparing this to the Cryosphere Today Sept. 21 2015 extent suggests to me that the current 2016 .025+ anomaly band inner edge may provide a reasonable proxy for end of season extent. It will be interesting to compare.]

Interesting JD  I would agree except that this feels different.  The images of the CAB that show through the clouds are revealing conditions much worse than I can remember.  I do not think that we will be able to compare this year with any other.  At this point, for myself, SIE is inconsequential, what matters now is how much more ice mobility there is and what volume can be pushed by winds to the warm external edge, leaving growing gaps for increased mid-pack albedo driven bottom-melt. 

It may be too early to tell but it seems to me that the warm winter, weakened ice structure, early fracture, separation from the fast ice on greenland side and the increased fracture/mobility of the final ice mass is going to be the model for tracking conditional changes.  I believe that very soon these will be the metrics we watch and compare to estimate how early we will reach 'ice free' conditions as the defining characteristic of each years melting season.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3730 on: July 31, 2016, 09:47:01 AM »
Cause for concern from today's SIC Polarview map by University of Bremen?

It is a big concern, this heat wave is another manifestation of 2016 being the warmest year on record so far.
Last year we had another one but this one looked worse IMO.
The weather forecast suggests however that the wave is about to end, another one to start.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3731 on: July 31, 2016, 09:57:54 AM »
I am not sure that if the ice is free in Laptev sea,  we can say the ice pack is floating except the anchor in Canadian side. However, the anchor is not stable so far, because you see the ice floes in Nare strait and other straits along the canadian sides. I wonder if the huge ice pack will be moved away from the Canadian side to Pacific side or Atlantic side under the strong storm effect in late August and early September. If that happens, the melting could be interesting.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3732 on: July 31, 2016, 10:11:38 AM »
To be more rigorous, and in view of the too few comments from experts on weather this season, I may be posting the maps of mean and standard deviation SLP of ECWMF ensembles. This is an ensemble of predictions that have been generated with slightly different initial conditions so wherever they agree, it is more reliable, and wherever they don't, expect alterations. That is the way I read it.
Thursday is a good example for an exercise, a > 1025hPa over Beaufort seems a good bet but the positioning of its couple on the low side is uncertain.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3733 on: July 31, 2016, 10:22:52 AM »
Ah, Sailor,

That ECMWF pic illustrates what I've been watching this morning too. After weeks of deceivingly dull Lows, next week ECMWF forecasts an interesting line-up which could last several days.

At first, the Pole-ESS ice-arm gets a battering by strong winds on the side of the latest Low. Then, high pressure in the Beaufort/Bering region takes over. That could be the first compaction mode this summer. The East-Sib Islands bite could grow well into the direction of the Pole.
The same line-up will start regenerating flow through Fram Strait.


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3734 on: July 31, 2016, 10:32:07 AM »
Werther, where are you people hiding? :) Nice

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3735 on: July 31, 2016, 10:51:43 AM »
This could be an inquiry more suitable for the "stupid questions" thread, but maybe somebody more familiar with "weather" and atmospheric modeling could address it here any way :

I understand why the Arctic has "lows" in summer. After all, it is the coldest spot around, and cold means air contracts and thus forms a low. But then why is it that the "highs" over lower latitude in summer seem to dominate over the oceans ? For example :



Note the highs over the Atlantic and (the ridiculously-resilient-ridge) over the Pacific.
In summer the oceans are relatively cool and land is relatively warm, so why are these highs over the oceans rather than over land and not the other way around ?
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PhilDPortsmouth

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3736 on: July 31, 2016, 11:24:12 AM »
"After all, it is the coldest spot around, and cold means air contracts and thus forms a low. But then why is it that the "highs" over lower latitude in summer seem to dominate over the oceans ?"
Hi Rob,
I think it is the other way round, hot air rises, expands and forms low pressure, cold air sinks, becomes more dense and forms high pressure.
Met Office have a nice graphic http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/how-weather-works/highs-and-lows/pressure
BW
Phil

iceman

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3737 on: July 31, 2016, 11:47:11 AM »
   ....
At first, the Pole-ESS ice-arm gets a battering by strong winds on the side of the latest Low. Then, high pressure in the Beaufort/Bering region takes over. That could be the first compaction mode this summer. The East-Sib Islands bite could grow well into the direction of the Pole.
The same line-up will start regenerating flow through Fram Strait.

Hesitate to dispute Werther, but I don't see any sign of increasing Fram Strait export in the coming week. In fact Greenland Sea ice is likely to continue its decline in the face of warm temps and winds shifting to northerly.

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3738 on: July 31, 2016, 12:01:29 PM »
 The forecast high pressure system, presuming it eventuates and follows the predicted path, would be more bad news for the ice.

  The well-established effect of compaction of sea ice by a high is towards the centre of the high pressure region. In this case, however, the high is forecast for the Beaufort Sea, where there is very little ice left and which is by now actually a killing zone for ice.

  So it would drag yet more ice in towards the Beaufort, stealing it from the Central Arctic Basin, where it would presumably melt away.

  Shown is the ClimateReanalyser forecast 5 days from now, by when the high has settled in the Beaufort Sea.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 12:17:43 PM by slow wing »

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3739 on: July 31, 2016, 12:17:16 PM »
This could be an inquiry more suitable for the "stupid questions" thread, but maybe somebody more familiar with "weather" and atmospheric modeling could address it here any way :

I understand why the Arctic has "lows" in summer. After all, it is the coldest spot around, and cold means air contracts and thus forms a low. But then why is it that the "highs" over lower latitude in summer seem to dominate over the oceans ?

Note the highs over the Atlantic and (the ridiculously-resilient-ridge) over the Pacific.
In summer the oceans are relatively cool and land is relatively warm, so why are these highs over the oceans rather than over land and not the other way around ?

Neven, feel free to move this if it's a clog.

Subtropical ridging is driven largely by the Sun warning the equatorial regions, creating an area of rising air, the intertropical convergence often called the ITCZ.   The rising air then moves poleward, and descends at around 30° north and south.   Descending air creates these high pressure systems, and they move north and south with the seasons.  The Hadley cell basically.

Since the oceans lack topography and don't really have diurnal warming and cooling, the weather patterns are relatively stable, and are modified by larger oscillations such as ENSO, AMO, NAO, PDO to name a few.  So these high pressures, or ridges you are noticing, are semi permanent features, but fluctuate due to the factors I mentioned above. 

Low pressure outside of the tropics, is largely driven by baroclinic processes, basically clashes of warm and cold air, and are associated with rising air, where high pressure has sinking air.  There are also fronts, which divide warm and cold air, as mid latitude cyclone almost always have a warm and a cold side.  Persistent cyclones like we have been seeing, can have very complex fronts, and "occlusions" (areas where cold fronts catch warm fronts).

As air rises, it cools, and warms as it sinks.  The "dry" adiabatic rate is 9.8°C/km, and the "wet" adiabatic rate is 5.5°C/km.  A rising parcel of air, that has less than 100% relative humidity will cool at the dry rate, once the temperature cools to the dew point, it begins to condensate and form clouds, and now cools at the wet rate.

Sinking air tends to"dry" out the clouds.  So when looking at 850mb temps (roughly 1500m high), if this air is able to mix down to the surface, it can theoretically warm as much as 15°C, under ideal circumstances.

I track a great deal of winter storms, as I generally receive over 2 meters of snow in the winter.  So I'm just following the arctic because I don't have snowstorms to track.  :)  and because it's important to weather and climate.
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3740 on: July 31, 2016, 02:52:25 PM »
It's just one measurement - IMO possibly less valuable than usual this year because the ice is so broken up.
This is captured in the compactness measure of Area/Extent that Neven has elaborated on several times, for example here: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/06/2016-melting-momentum-part-2.html

For the time of year, 2016 is now at approximately record low compactness, i.e., there are lots of holes in the ice.

With two days of added data, the 2016 trend line has shot up (a bit less on the CAMAS graph):

How is 2016 doing now? My guess is we have fallen back to 2012-ish levels.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3741 on: July 31, 2016, 03:53:18 PM »
It is working fine with this link

Bear in mind that the model underlying ACNFS is admittedly not "working fine" at present:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1602.msg84108.html#msg84108
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3742 on: July 31, 2016, 06:41:08 PM »
Very intrigued with an elongated area of low concentration in Chukchi sea ice that started to appear about ten days ago, now showing almost open water, and a bite that is well aligned with one of the Chukchi sea currents per the text books. The region seems to persist in the same location during the ten days regardless of drift. Is the current flow reaching so far or just coincidence? In any case, Chukchi ice retreat is relatively late for now (Melt extent images downloaded from ADS-NIPR Vishop)

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3743 on: July 31, 2016, 06:56:59 PM »
Very intrigued with an elongated area of low concentration in Chukchi sea ice that started to appear about ten days ago, now showing almost open water, and a bite that is well aligned with one of the Chukchi sea currents per the text books. The region seems to persist in the same location during the ten days regardless of drift. Is the current flow reaching so far or just coincidence? In any case, Chukchi ice retreat is relatively late for now (Melt extent images downloaded from ADS-NIPR Vishop)
I tend to think the highly post processed image will lose some useful information. If you look at the map from EOSDIS, the difference will be obvious.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3744 on: July 31, 2016, 07:55:01 PM »
The last two weeks in motion
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3745 on: July 31, 2016, 09:55:43 PM »
for comparison

Thank you, Jai!
[edit: A little additional investigation comparing this to the Cryosphere Today Sept. 21 2015 extent suggests to me that the current 2016 .025+ anomaly band inner edge may provide a reasonable proxy for end of season extent. It will be interesting to compare.]

Interesting JD  I would agree except that this feels different.  The images of the CAB that show through the clouds are revealing conditions much worse than I can remember.
<snippage>
Agree, Jai; It may be I'm being too conservative.  The next few weeks well be very interesting, especially in view of weather changes coming up suggesting widespread high pressure over the region.

That will have less impact on areas above 85N as insolation starts its sharp decline towards the equinox, but it is still very relevant at and below 80N.  Combined with the high seawater temperatures driving bottom melt, it may be 2012 may not be as far out of reach as we thought.

For a certainty, even if area and extent do not plummet, we are losing huge amounts of volume, and still more MYI.  It is far from optimal.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3746 on: July 31, 2016, 10:15:57 PM »
Today is day # 213 of 365.  DMI N80 temps typically fall below 0°C around day 230.  To a rough approximation then, we can expect refreeze to match melt in another two weeks north of 80°.

Marginal ice zones next to open water (the Laptev bite and the Atlantic sector) could continue a bit longer, but the central CAB only has a couple of weeks to reduce extent before it starts refreezing.

After that, compaction events will not have as large an effect because the interstitial openings will start being filled with new ice.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3747 on: July 31, 2016, 10:39:19 PM »
Very intrigued with an elongated area of low concentration in Chukchi sea ice that started to appear about ten days ago, now showing almost open water, and a bite that is well aligned with one of the Chukchi sea currents per the text books. The region seems to persist in the same location during the ten days regardless of drift. Is the current flow reaching so far or just coincidence? In any case, Chukchi ice retreat is relatively late for now (Melt extent images downloaded from ADS-NIPR Vishop)
I tend to think the highly post processed image will lose some useful information. If you look at the map from EOSDIS, the difference will be obvious.
I hear you, but the high resolution instrument can't see through the clouds. There is an amazing animation of this area here though,
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg84530.html#msg84530
with much more than one visible-light image per day, but short due to clouds.
Fluctuations can be seen near the edge, seems like a river to me, but I think what we see in the AMSR2 images goes much further into the pack.
Just a thought:
Annual mean flow of the Mackenzie river: ~9,000 m3/s (wikipedia)
Annual mean flow thru the Bering strait: northward, ~0.8 Sv (800,000m3/s)
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/bstrait.html

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3748 on: July 31, 2016, 10:43:27 PM »
Let me illustrate with some ECMWF imaginery:
This might be an, albeit short, compaction mode at t+96 h:



And this a line-up conducive for some Fram Strait export at t+192 h (less certain!):



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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3749 on: August 01, 2016, 12:34:28 AM »
Today is day # 213 of 365.  DMI N80 temps typically fall below 0°C around day 230.  To a rough approximation then, we can expect refreeze to match melt in another two weeks north of 80°.

Marginal ice zones next to open water (the Laptev bite and the Atlantic sector) could continue a bit longer, but the central CAB only has a couple of weeks to reduce extent before it starts refreezing.

After that, compaction events will not have as large an effect because the interstitial openings will start being filled with new ice.

Ktonine  I doubt very much that temps of 0'C will stop the melt . Last year the melt continued for a further 40 days in the CAB  , 2012 continued melting for another 50 days from now . Why would/should bottom melt etc halt in 14 days ?
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