Operational 00z GFS run has a possible 958 hpa intensive cyclone by early monday between Franz Josefs land and Novaya Severnaya.
Heck, how much transport of ice will go out to the death zone in the Atlantic?! :O
NEVEN: wrt to your discussion of a definition of a "GAC". Her is my opinion. Easiest and best way to classify these cyclones should be by minimum pressure. A GAC should be in place if two or perhaps three conditions are met:
1) Minimum pressure is below 970 hpa. Between 970-979 hpa it should be seen as a "Moderate Arctic Cyclone" e.g a "MAC"
2) By time, a GAC needs to spend some time over the Arctic basin and not fill out too easy.
(3) Time at year. Just for clarification, have the previous GACs intensity only been related to August? What are the lowest pressure readings by June and July?
In any case, we certainly have seen, and will see, a lot of IMO, "PAC MACs".
Another nomeclatura that I think should be usedif the criteria for a GAC isn't met: "IAC" - Intensive Arctic Cyclone"
Best, LMV