The interesting part about the 5-day average, is that we can anticipate what it is going to happen tomorrow. The 2011 minimum ice extent is 4.34 million km2 (with 5-day avg.). so, even if tomorrow the original NSIDC daily increases by 100k km2, the 5-day average will decrease to be a little lower than the 2011 minimum ice extent.
Yesterday I forecasted that 2016 NSIDC 5-day average would be lower than the 2011 minimum, even if the original daily value (that is, without 5-day average) increases 100k km2. Interestingly, the original daily value increased 52k km2, but as I forecasted, that was not enough to overcome the inertia that the 5-day average has. So, 2016 is today below the 2011 minimum, become third lowest on record (after 2012 and 2007).
The other part of the story is that, with the 52k increase, 2016 is losing inertia to beat the 2007 minimum. Let's wait to see what it happens.
Date Original Original 5-day avg. 5-day avg.
daily drop daily drop
(M km2) (k km2) (M km2) (k km2)
Aug-24 4.939
Aug-25 4.850 89.0
Aug-26 4.710 140.0
Aug-27 4.537 173.0
Aug-28 4.707 -170.0 4.749
Aug-29 4.547 160.0 4.670 78.4
Aug-30 4.469 78.0 4.594 76.2
Aug-31 4.388 81.0 4.530 64.4
Sep-01 4.278 110.0 4.478 51.8
Sep-02 4.211 67.0 4.379 99.2
Sep-03 4.263 -52.0 4.322 56.8