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Author Topic: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction  (Read 1820 times)

Sigmetnow

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Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: September 09, 2015, 01:34:29 AM »
The strange link between global climate change and the rise of the robots
Quote
We’ve already heard of all the nasty consequences that could occur if the pace of global climate change doesn’t abate by the year 2050 — we could see wars over water, massive food scarcity, and the extinction of once populous species. Now add to the mix a potentially new wrinkle on the abrupt and irreversible changes – superintelligent robots would be just about ready to take over from humanity in the event of any mass extinction event impacting the planet.

In fact, according to a mind-blowing research paper published in mid-August by computer science researchers Joel Lehman and Risto Miikkulainen, robots would quickly evolve in the event of any mass extinction (defined as the loss of at least 75 percent of the species on the planet), something that’s already happened five times before in the past.

In a survival of the fittest contest in which humans and robots start at zero (which is what we’re really talking about with a mass extinction event), robots would win every time. That’s because humans evolve linearly, while superintelligent robots would evolve exponentially. Simple math.

Think about it — robots don’t need water and they don’t need food — all they need is a power source and a way to constantly refine the algorithms they use to make sense of the world around them. If they figure out how to stay powered up after severe and irreversible climate change impacts – perhaps by powering up with solar power as they did in the Hollywood film “Transcendence” — robots could quickly prove to be “fitter” than humans in responding to any mass extinction event.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2015/09/08/the-strange-link-between-global-climate-change-and-the-rise-of-the-robots/

Welcome, Robot Overlords. Please Don't Fire Us?
Smart machines probably won't kill us all—but they'll definitely take our jobs, and sooner than you think.
http://m.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation

ICYMI:  Lengthy but recommended article.
The AI Revolution: Our Immortality or Extinction
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2018, 10:12:20 PM »
I found it entertaining.  Engaging.  Encouraging.  Terrifying.

Elon Musk:  “Nothing will affect the future of humanity more than digital super-intelligence. Watch Chris Paine’s new AI movie for free until Sunday night at doyoutrustthiscomputer.org/watch “
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/982119546420002817


“You are my creator, but I am your master”
— Mary Shelley
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2018, 10:29:14 PM »
“ doyoutrustthiscomputer.org/watch at 5M views after 36 hours. Congrats to Chris Paine & co!”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/982716415089299457
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TerryM

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2018, 10:46:24 PM »
I don't even trust autonomous vehicles to make the right decision.
Terry

be cause

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2018, 11:14:27 PM »
.. and as we are all already immortal .. b.c. :)
be the cause of only good
and love all beings as you should
and the 'God' of all Creation
will .. through you .. transform all nations :)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2018, 04:31:13 AM »
Just finished watching “do you trust this computer" and walked into the other room to tell my wife I loved her, just in case 'super AI' takes over tonight and decides humanity is the problem.  (I don't expect to complain if it happens ...)

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Bruce Steele

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2018, 05:22:04 AM »
I spent years running a boat. Diesel engines eventually came with smog control and sensors that would automatically shut the engine down if it sensed low oil pressure , overheating or things that might damage the engine. Most of the time however the sensor would irrationally go out and inconviently leave the boat dead in the water and without hydraulics to operate the anchor... the anchor problem can be remedied , at least for letting it out. I always wanted one switch that would override every sensor , a switch that if triggered would void the warranty but allow me to run the engine long enough to at least allow me enough time to avoid hitting the rocks. No I never hit the rocks but I did want total control over what that engine thought best. Maybe this is all OT but I am very sure we need to have an override button on more systems that ostensibly are trying to help us. Like shutting down HAL

SteveMDFP

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2018, 05:46:57 AM »
Maybe this is all OT but I am very sure we need to have an override button on more systems that ostensibly are trying to help us. Like shutting down HAL

"I am afraid I can't do that, Dave."

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2018, 05:50:15 AM »
re: HAL.
In the trust computers 'movie', the four (then three) legged robot that learned how to walk discovered (obvious to me, but not spoken of in the film) that by watching people's eyes (or expressions or something), it would get clues how to solve its problems.  Similarly, HAL will learn where the master switch is.
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sidd

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2018, 07:49:13 AM »
Re: Diesel override

get an old one. Tough, I know, because the people that have em like em. Look in estate sales, you can rebuild the old ones easy. In the late nineties i got a old lister design, single cylinder 5 HP china diesel. Can't buy em no more in the USA, too polluting. But the thing is a donkey, and i have run it for weeks on end many times over the years and the last time i took it apart, i still didnt need to rebore or rering. I can pour straight vegetable oil into it, and is made to be repaired by peasants in knee deep water in rice paddies.

sidd

magnamentis

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2018, 10:49:02 AM »
if we agree that somehow airplane autopilots work quite well and mostly accurately i may mentione two typical examples why we should not trust them 100% and even though humans make mistakes as well, probably even more so, it's still possible to correct them most of the time and it's still a difference to be at the mercy of a machine without a way out or to forgive a fellow human an error.

examples:

a) birgen air taking of from santo domingo. overspeed warning during climbing (physically not possbile since there is not enough power to overspeed during climb) nevertheless the pilots who nowadays only are better bus-drivers IMO, no more real flying skills and but-feeling, believed the computers, reduced throttle and stalled into the ocean, all dead.

b) air france heading from brazil to paris, contradictory speed warnings due to pitot icing and the pilots believed the computers, and reduced speed and then when starting to fall pulled up instead of pushing the stick forward. first thing i learned in flight school after the basics is that in case of a stall one has to give full throttle and push the stick forward to gather speed.

BTW my flight instructor, a lufthansa pilot for many years himself, was the one who told me that with the bus drivers and i think he knew what he was talking about.

so those accidents were initially triggered by computer failures and augmented by human failure while i ask myself why a computer is programmed the way that it can produce an overspeed warning during climb and to insist to take action.

however, it shows the problem clearly, one can only program what one knows while humans can react with totally new solutions to totally extraordinary input (situations) while computers as per now cannot.

last but not least, only look at pc-software, programmers are often narrow minded and think they understand everyones use case or think they have to teach us their way of doing things as the only correct one which indirectly is probably exactly what happened. programmers are rarely pilots and people who make lonely calls in the woods are most often dismissed as "pain in the ass" pessimists.

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TerryM

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2018, 03:46:44 PM »
I want a Bruce Button on everything I own that's more complicated than a hammer.


Roomba develops a taste for kittens - Bruce Button
TV decides to enhance the background music while muting the dialogue - Bruce Button
Heat pump initiates defrost cycle as you're recording Missy's first accordion solo - Bruce Button
Auto lights darken because you're reading in the tub and not moving - Bruce Button
Garage door heads down because it doesn't notice your car - Bruce Button


Perhaps it could even be a dial where we decide just how much automation we'd prefer at this time using this tool?


"Hey Roomba, leave those cats alone."
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #12 on: April 08, 2018, 04:10:57 PM »
if we agree that somehow airplane autopilots work quite well and mostly accurately i may mentione two typical examples why we should not trust them 100% and even though humans make mistakes as well, probably even more so, it's still possible to correct them most of the time and it's still a difference to be at the mercy of a machine without a way out or to forgive a fellow human an error.

examples:

a) birgen air taking of from santo domingo. overspeed warning during climbing (physically not possbile since there is not enough power to overspeed during climb) nevertheless the pilots who nowadays only are better bus-drivers IMO, no more real flying skills and but-feeling, believed the computers, reduced throttle and stalled into the ocean, all dead.

b) air france heading from brazil to paris, contradictory speed warnings due to pitot icing and the pilots believed the computers, and reduced speed and then when starting to fall pulled up instead of pushing the stick forward. first thing i learned in flight school after the basics is that in case of a stall one has to give full throttle and push the stick forward to gather speed.

BTW my flight instructor, a lufthansa pilot for many years himself, was the one who told me that with the bus drivers and i think he knew what he was talking about.

so those accidents were initially triggered by computer failures and augmented by human failure while i ask myself why a computer is programmed the way that it can produce an overspeed warning during climb and to insist to take action.

however, it shows the problem clearly, one can only program what one knows while humans can react with totally new solutions to totally extraordinary input (situations) while computers as per now cannot.

...

When taking instruction for flight in instrument conditions (when there is no reference to the ground or sky), the first rule is, “trust the instruments” — because human senses fail at determining “which way is up” in those conditions.  You can be in level flight but your brain insists you are climbing; you can feel certain you are in level flight because the forces are pushing you straight down in your seat, but the plane is actually in a death spiral.  So, Rule #1 is Trust the Instruments.

But, Rule #2 is Know the Instruments, and when to disregard Rule #1.  Know that flying in icing conditions can clog the pitot tube and make the airspeed indicator read low.  So, cross check the artificial horizon, the rate of climb indicator, the RPM meter.  Use the carburetor heat. ;)  Use all available information to interpret what is really happening.

When computers and glass cockpits started appearing, it was required that the traditional mechanical instruments be installed, too!  So if all the displays go dark, backup information is still there for the pilot. 

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2018, 04:11:34 PM »
One of my favorite sayings is, “Computers are not smart.  They just do stupid things extremely fast.”
Because at its most basic, it’s still just 1’s and 0’s making all those decisions.  The Roomba gets stuck on a cliff.  The internet-connected light switch refuses to turn off.  Alexa starts laughing uncontrollably.

AI can be extremely helpful.  Elon Musk’s point is that AI must democratized.  Everyone needs to know what everyone else is doing.  The danger comes when one group works in secret on an AI that could cause global catastrophe.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2018, 09:10:14 PM »
When I was a kid, my father owned a single prop airplane (Cessna 206).  The autopilot one day decided the plane needed to make a continuous sharp left-hand turn (or the equivalent dangerous malfunction). Returned to the factory for repair and reinstalled, it repeated its 'turn sharp left now' behavior when in control.  My dad figured it needed in-air adjusting, so I found myself with my small hands upside down reaching up under the instrument panel making adjustments.  Adjustment - autopilot on - sharp left turn - autopilot off - repeat 10 times.  My dad ended up getting a new one.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2018, 05:47:30 PM »
Car guy Alex Roy argues that automated driving assist systems, like airplane autopilots, should protect drivers, not take them out of the loop.

The Biggest Opportunity Everyone Is Missing In Self-Driving Cars
Quote
What are Flight Envelope Protections? Here’s the wiki:

“...A human machine interface extension of an aircraft’s control system that prevents the pilot of an aircraft from making control commands that would force the aircraft to exceed its structural and aerodynamic operating limits. It is used in some form in all modern commercial fly-by-wire aircraft. Its advantage is that it restricts pilots in emergency situations so they can react quickly without endangering the safety of their aircraft.”

Quote
Why don’t we have Driving Envelope Protections (DEP)? We do, in the form of ADAS, but they’re relatively primitive. They exist in the form of Anti-Lock Brakes, Traction Control, Stability Control, and Evasive Steering Assistance systems, but their intervention is inconsistent and largely invisible to — and misunderstood by — drivers. They are poorly or rarely integrated with peer technologies even within state-of-the-art ADAS suites like that in the 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class.

Why should drivers be able to panic steer into a wall clearly indicated by their car’s radar sensors? Or steer into a lane where their Blind Spot Monitoring system has identified a truck? ...
http://www.thedrive.com/tech/9548/the-biggest-opportunity-everyone-is-missing-in-self-driving-cars
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vox_mundi

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Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2018, 06:02:07 PM »
Engineers Developing a HAL 9000-type AI system for Monitoring Planetary Base Stations, and What Could Go Wrong, Really
https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/21/theyre-making-a-real-hal-9000-and-its-called-case/
https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-built-an-ai-inspired-by-hal-9000-and-what-could-go-wrong-really



A team of engineers at TRACLabs Inc. in the U.S. is making inroads toward the creation of a planetary base station monitoring system similar in some respects to Hal 9000—the infamous AI system in the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey. In this case, it is called cognitive architecture for space agents (CASE) and is outlined in a Focus piece by Pete Bonasso, the primary engineer working on the project, in the journal Science Robotics.

Bonasso explains that he has had an interest in creating a real Hal 9000 ever since watching the movie as a college student—minus the human killing, of course. His system is designed to run a base situated on another planet, such as Mars. It is meant to take care of the more mundane, but critical tasks involved with maintaining a habitable planetary base, such as maintaining oxygen levels and taking care of waste. He notes that such a system needs to know what to do and how to do it, carrying out activities using such hardware as robot arms. To that end, CASE has been designed as a three-layered system. The first is in charge of controlling hardware, such as power systems, life-support, etc.

The second layer is more brainy—it is in charge of running the software that controls the hardware. The third layer is even smarter, responsible for coming up with solutions to problems as they arise—if damage occurs to a module, for example, it must be sealed off from others modules as quickly as possible. The system also has what Bonasso describes as an ontological system—its job is to be self-aware so that the system can make judgment calls when comparing data from sensors with what it has learned in the past and with information received from human occupants. To that end, the system will be expected to interact with those humans in ways similar to those portrayed in the movie.



Quote
Dave Bowman: Open the pod bay doors, HAL.
HAL: I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that.
Dave Bowman: What's the problem?
HAL: I think you know what the problem is just as well as I do.
...
HAL: You can't take care of your own planet. I'm not letting you f**k this one up.

Pete Bonasso. CASE: A HAL 9000 for 2021, Science Robotics (2018).

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late