Economic: 2016 and beyond

[Buddy]

I just wanted to post this for anyone interested in "economics/investments".  The Economic Cycle Research Institute....is a consulting and economic modeling firm that has been around for a LONG TIME.  It was founded by one of the "original" economic modelers....and it is a site that I "frequent" at least a few times a month.  It does NOT have an "ideological bent" in either direction.....and is mostly concerned with "business cycles" around the world.

Their outlook for 2016...and maybe into 2017 is not particularly "rosy".  Here is a good read from a recent article at their site:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/harvard-scientist-a-former-solar-skeptic-now-sees-the-light

I would also note.....that the 4th year (or in this case the 8th year) of a presidential cycle in the US is NOTORIOUSLY BAD for equities.  I am NOT an equity analyst...and NOT a financial advisor....but I tell my friends to "keep their powder dry" till later in the year this year (likely late September to mid October) before wading back into the equity market.

I mentioned it elsewhere on this site a few weeks ago....but the solar and alternative energy stocks have been "pulling back" for a couple years now....and I suggest that they "MAY BOTTOM" this summer or early fall.  Just something for you to look at....

If the trends in the Arctic ice sheet....and the Greenland melt continue.....investors will be looking at the alternative energy sector with much more interest.

I also have suggested in the past......that I believe a "Marshall type plan" for alternative energy internationally will be LIKELY HAPPEN at some point in the NEAR FUTURE (WITHIN 3 years).  The dots are starting to connect BOTH on a physics level.....and from a psychological (and logical) level internationally.

[johnm33]

Worth a read on this subject, and a possible list of names to check out. I try to keep abreast of Hudsons work and play catch up witj what Keene and Schiffer are saying as and when. http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/

[Buddy]

By the way.....an additional note to part of my earlier post:

I also have suggested in the past......that I believe a "Marshall type plan" for alternative energy internationally will be LIKELY HAPPEN at some point in the NEAR FUTURE (WITHIN 3 years).  The dots are starting to connect BOTH on a physics level.....and from a psychological (and logical) level internationally.

There is a "monetary/fiscal" tug of war going on in economies around the world right now.  They have been trying to keep a lid on spending....while trying to recharge economies.  The Fed in the US has been "prodding" Congress to "get off the schnid" (ie to get going) and do some fiscal stimulus.

My "thesis".....is that fiscal stimulus in coming years will be from two areas:  (1) infrastructure for alternative energy.....transportation/homes/work, and (2) basic materials needed for #1.

If you are going to build infrastructure.....what about building infrastructure that SAVES PEOPLE MONEY IN COMING YEARS AND DECADES.

The changeover in energy systems worldwide is NOW taking place.  My thesis is that governments will step in and help this along.  Especially as they discover that the FIRST ONES TO DO THIS....will profit by it (ie energy costs will continue to come down in coming years as BOTH efficiency of alternative energy transportation costs AND a DROP in residential/commercial energy costs WILL DROP IN COMING YEARS/DECADES (which is just like a tax cut).

I know this is "off topic" (but at least I'm in the right category)......and this will positively impact alternative energy and related areas (ie building more efficient homes and buildings....more efficient transportation......less expensive car insurance as self driving cars come online...etc).

 

[Csnavywx]

We're 1-2 trillion behind on traditional infrastructure maintenance and repairs here in the U.S. Why would politicians vote for mass renewables first over crumbling roads, transit and bridges?

[Buddy]

We're 1-2 trillion behind on traditional infrastructure maintenance and repairs here in the U.S. Why would politicians vote for mass renewables first over crumbling roads, transit and bridges?

The choice is pretty easy for me.  We HAVE been putting off repairs and maintenance for a LONG TIME.  Some of it IS crucial (bridges for instance).  I am NOT saying to avoid the MOST critical of repairs...they need to be done.

BUT.....now more and more people are discovering that global warming is REAL....and it has been going on for quite a while (very slowly at first....much more rapid NOW).  And it is though we have JUST discovered that our house has been being eaten away by termites over the past 40 years...and they are getting worse.  Even though our house needs new tile.....and a paint job....and it has cracks in the driveway.  The MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE is the termites......because if the termites win....the other stuff doesn't matter.

That is where we sit with global warming now.  Now....even some of the doubters....and now getting it, and they are seeing with their own eyes what is happening.

I can tell you this:  As conditions continue to worsen (by the MONTH...and by the YEAR)....the appetite to do something about global warming is increasing QUICKLY.

Events like that up in Alberta, Canada over the last week.....has certainly got the Canadians attention (as well as many in this country).

There will be a significant appetite to put money into infrastructure for energy systems.  Some of it is now being done by the private sector (Tesla's charging stations for instance).

The countries/states/provinces that "win" the energy transition over the 20 years....will set themselves up for the next 100 years.  Those that don't....will be left behind (welcome to West Virginia).

 

[abbottisgone]

There's a bloke from Australia who runs some initiative called Beyond Zero and they produced some numbers and looked at stuff to come to the conclusion that the biggest threat was that of resource bottlenecks when the whole world realises they have to turn to Renewable Energy all at the same time.

That means people will get try and get in early to beat the cost curve... if the sea ice goes anywhere below 2012 levels I expect we will hear some murmurings of panic.

[abbottisgone]

.. if, however, sea ice in the Arctic only comes in second to 2012 then it's obviously muffled panic described as business as usual 

[Buddy]

It "looks" like solar stocks MAY have just bottomed (what is described as an INTERMEDIATE TERM bottom).  The INITIAL bottom.....was back in 2012, and then solar stocks rallied HARD for about 18 months.  Now....after PULLING BACK for the last 2 years.....they looked to have put in a "higher low"...and I expect them to rally to new highs from here.

TAN is an "ETF" (exchange traded fund).  It trades like a stock...but you can think of it as a "mutual fund" of solar stocks.  You can look it up for the exact percentages of which INDIVIDUAL stocks are held in the ETF.

SPWR is a solar stock...and is an interesting one, since it is more than 50% owned BY THE OIL COMPANY Total (French energy company).  FSLR is a thin cell solar company....and there are many other various types of solar.

Using an ETF like "TAN"....takes away INDIVIDUAL COMPANY RISK.  But of course...it is focused ONLY on solar stocks....so it has "SECTOR RISK".

Just thought I would give MY TAKE on where solar stocks are now....

[Buddy]

As the world economies continue to go through this huge changeover from dirty, climate warming...fossil fuels.....to cleaner and CHEAPER renewable energy....the world economies will get a big "boost".

It's like giving all the companies of the world an ANNUAL TAX CUT EACH YEAR.  Renewable energy will continue to get cheaper and cheaper over the next decade.  The only companies it is NOT good for are (1) fossil fuel companies, and (2) electric utilities.

And even ONE fossil fuel company saw this coming:  Total.  Total...the French energy company, bought a controlling interest in Solar Power (SPWR).  Solar Power just recently bought a battery storage company as they broaden their reach.

Interesting times.  And I live in Georgia.....where sometimes it feels like we are still heating with wale oil.....

[Buddy]

One other thing regarding equity markets over THE NEXT FIVE MONTHS (until end of September or mid October):

There are SEVERAL "issues" to watch...as I expect the OVERALL MARKET to decline:

1)  Weakness in mainland China continues
2)  Property prices in Hong Kong continue to "collapse"....and will likely bleed over to continued weakening in Canada (a lot of "hot" mainland China money has been pushing up prices....as well as in higher rent districts in New York City, Seattle, San Fran, LA, etc.)
3)  Expect Apple to miss estimated earnings once again.  Apple is 15% of the NASDAQ 100....and about 8% of the entire NASDAQ.  If Apple misses AGAIN (reports in July)....that will take the market down.
4)  Arctic sea ice:  Will be interesting to see all the "hot money" move this summer and fall.

Interesting times indeed........

[Buddy]

Article regarding energy infrastructure underfunding....

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/12/11665236/electricity-infrastructure-investments

[TerryM]

A scary view of economic collapse, using lessons from Detroit's recent past. If we add extreme weather to the equation, things move from a steady downhill slope to any number of very swift descents.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-28/what-life-will-be-after-economic-collapse


I've always looked at the larger picture but perhaps this neighborhood sized viewpoint is more realistic. Will those displaced by the latest flooding in Louisiana ever return to what the had a month ago? If not where will they land, how will they find employment, and who will provide for their needs?
Perhaps collapse occurs neighborhood by neighborhood & those that have escaped thus far simply blame the victims.
Terry

[Bruce Steele]

Terry, I don't know if you see the things the author of the collapse / prepare article is describing but there are parts and pieces of what she describes here in Calif.  Bars on windows and doors, lots of trash dumped along roads outside town, roadside ornamental plantings gone to weeds and dead trees for lack of water ,lots of people pushing
grocery carts with everything they own in them, very few police, and junked cars in people's yards. You also start to feel the hair on your back starting to rise because you can tell people are watching you.
Sometimes they ask for change and you can tell they live outside because their clothes aren't clean and showers are far between. If you are brave and start looking and walking along the railroad tracks , in riverbeds, or in the brush along the freeways you see blankets ,garbage and encampments. I am talking about hundreds and hundreds of people in some cities already living on nothing. Places where it gets over 100 degrees during the day and there just isn't a safety net for these people.
 If you ask the locals what has happened and you hear rationalizations like drugs but I wonder if it's just how people still making it try to block out the bad things. Ya some of the homeless are on drugs but there are also old people and various ethnic groups over represented and I don't think they look like
drugs  got them.
 So you kick down some pocket change ,offer some food and try to be kind. I ask them maybe to tell me about why they are on the road. I used to pick up hitchhikers cause I used to hitch hike but it just got kinda scary and I don't pick people up very often anymore. I was starting to realize I needed to figure out how to defend myself if I had to.  Anyway some of these people are pretty close to zero carbon or about as close as people get in our society. I think if you could organize them and really learn their individual stories there might be a way to provide them a little comfort and someplace to work their way back up. But there isn't much of a safety net for them and sadly I think more people are going to learn what it's like when society casts you out. And the people still with jobs and some money will have their rationalizations for it all until it's them on the street.


 

[Iceismylife]

A concept I like to think about is GWP Gross World Product.

If you move a job from a $20hr labor pool to a $1hr labor pool and the worker in the $20hr labor pool replaces their job with a $15 job then you need to overpay the new $1hr worker by $4hr or you get a contraction in GWP.

We are seeing the contraction in GWP from this.


This explanation is a bit of an oversimplification but it largely holds

[TerryM]

Bruce


For some reason I'm in a particularly anti-American mood & every attempted reply to your post appeared as a rant against your country. This wasn't/isn't my intent, so I'll keep mum until my mood brightens.


Somehow we have to provide a foolproof safety net that is inclusive. If any group is excluded the whole thing will be rightly seen as elitist and will fail.


Terry

[Bruce Steele]

Terry, There is the very deep seated belief in the rugged individual here and I am as guilty as the next guy. As things would have I was talking to a young 20 year old yesterday about collapse and his plans. He and his buddies ( I remember in my twenties having a crew to run with, drink with etc. ) talk a lot about how they think things will go down and how they plan on preparing for it. Compounds, defense and frankly some pretty morbid thoughts about that end of things. He also was interested in native foods but you could tell his group was much bigger on defense than feeding themselves. I told him some of my thoughts on preparing better on food preparation plans and putting more thought into how to store food etc. because I'm a fisherman and a farmer and that's where my mind goes but our society is rather obsessed with firearms. I don't use the G word here because I got in trouble for that but that apparently is consuming a lot of these young men's thoughts.
 I told him he might want to think about lone wolf survival plans as a back up . There aren't that many positive outcomes I can imagine for a group with too much testosterone , firearms and not a lot of knowledge about feeding themselves. Anyway I suppose this all seems off topic but it really does represent individualism taken to it's ultimate downfall, and since our society is obsessed with individualism it may mirror our ( USA ) collective fate.
 I read somewhere a quote " that even freedom can be a vice " . I think freedom and individualism combined culminate in a fatal flaw for large groups of people.  We have a problem, it is deep rooted.
 

[Iceismylife]

...
 Places where it gets over 100 degrees during the day and there just isn't a safety net for these people.
...

 And the people still with jobs and some money will have their rationalizations for it all until it's them on the street.

A good safety net starts with demand for labor.  If there is lots of work to do then the lot of the bottom is better.  Also if the wages on the bottom are better than the lot of the bottom is better.