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Author Topic: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland  (Read 1208644 times)

oren

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1000 on: October 12, 2015, 01:10:51 AM »
Beautiful and scary stuff. Community science at its best.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1001 on: October 12, 2015, 06:56:45 AM »
i think grounding line is retreating behind the sill into goginneni gorge

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1002 on: October 12, 2015, 02:54:09 PM »
Quote
Beautiful and scary stuff. Community science at its best.
We're doing quite well across many of these forums. The talent is out there; even with 'day jobs', people can find time to kick in what for them is a quick easy product. With several of these, we can pull together a pretty good real-time story. What's missing so far is the capacity to get additional instrumentation out there in response to breaking events.
Quote
grounding line is retreating behind the sill into goginneni gorge
It would otherwise seem a remarkable coincidence. Yet maximal retreat in both 2013 and 2014 was not dissimilar from now so why is the behavior different today? I don't see the 100 m deep till of AGU2015 coming into the picture until the next trough and its retrograde slope.

We could wish the raw experimental DEM data were not so opaque in the immediate vicinity of the sill (or is it? sidd has been otherwise occupied). This is a common mistake in glaciology publications, toss the data in favor of a buffed gridded interpolated 'presentation quality' graphic from which the data cannot be recovered.

There are a whole lot of assumptions going into that that obscure what is actually known right at the calving front. Please don't suggest emailing authors, that is just feeding the dog at the table. They need to publish or post their data as supplemental, as is done elsewhere in the sciences.

Today is a big day for us because Sentinel-1A is on track for a high resolution IW. These have quite satisfactory resolution and with very similar dates, offer interpretive interplay with Landsat that we are yet to fully explore.

The animation below takes a look at the regional lift spotted by Espen. This turns out to have been a very effective optical illusion caused by faint clouds in all the wrong places, according to the cloud bands of Landsat. (I was looking at thermal infrared hoping to get a blackbody temperature readout on the bubble-free deep dark blue calved icebergs, too fuzzy.)

As Espen suggests, by a fluke, satellite imagery may have caught the calving event "in the act". Given that calving in 'Chasing Ice'  lasted all of 45 minutes, this seems implausible at first. However this event is unfolding more slowly.

The data we have is still no substitute for flying a drone 4x a day on site or chartering Air Zufari for a closer look. Just as Rignot and Box have found private individuals volunteering boats for sonar projects etc, individuals pass through Illulisat with private planes and potentially the interest.

And all these mountaineering adventurers visiting Greenland, maybe two could ascend the bergs to get ice samples and temperatures (representing the deepest ice at the calving front). It would be great if we could enlist more people in the community science endeavor as satellite coverage is fairly sparse. Given the ponderous processes of grant application and academic publication, no adaptive response flexibility can be expected there.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 04:44:11 PM by A-Team »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1003 on: October 12, 2015, 06:14:44 PM »
Maybe it's time to build a hotel up there - with one of the most phantastic views on the planet, methinks a good business idea. Plus help for science, e.g. guests might then want to play with drones.  -- (Oh, another "vision": What about placing microphones or seismic sensors around, not just a dumb web cam, so the world can hear Greenland work?)

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1004 on: October 12, 2015, 08:41:54 PM »
Martin,

What a splendid idea. Just had a kick-off-meeting with some drone guys, who wanted to pick up a live IR signal from overhead powerlines and heat pipes in the ground in order to reduce heat waste. Maybe they could be persuaded to twist their drones and software to look for a temperature profile of recently capsized icebergs in the Jakobshavn Icefjord. Do you have any idea of what kind of temperature range they should be looking for?

Drone-based monitoring is already taking place close to the Fram Strait (see  http://g-e-m.dk/fileadmin/Resources/DMU/GEM/GEM/senseFly-Case-Study-Greenland-COWI.pdf ) and the Russians are planning a long-range drone operation across to the Pole in 2017 (see https://www.rt.com/news/314860-russia-heavy-arctic-drone/?utm_content=bufferc3891&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer ).

Why not have a bunch of laid-back and well-off tourists sitting comfortably in deck-chairs sipping champagne with a perfect view to the southern limb of the Jakobshavn Glacier as the live band plays this one: ). If their binocculars can no longer reach the calving ice front, they can always split the bill and send out a drone to get fresh ice for their Martinis…

You pervert!

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1005 on: October 12, 2015, 09:30:35 PM »
Here is a Sentinel hard proof of the calving Oct. 10 / 11 2015 (to avoid them from again hijacking the event as ESA did in August 2015 because I then used NASA data):


http://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2015/08/Jakobshavn_glacier_calving Released Aug. 21 2015

No mention that this was an old story released in Arctic Sea Ice blog on August 16 2015:
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-1/Chasing_ice
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 09:46:48 PM by Espen »
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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1006 on: October 12, 2015, 09:46:15 PM »
That might be the most expensive luxury hotel in the world as absolutely everything would need to be flown in with helicopters from Ilulissat that is 50km away. Ilulissat was already "interesting" pricewise as a pint of Heineken & a bottle of Carlsberg set me back 20€ in a non-fancy bar.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1007 on: October 12, 2015, 10:23:24 PM »
Nukefix,

I could have told you: Don't drink Heineken.

If you can afford a drone to the ice edge, why not send a drone back to Ilulissat to fetch one of the local brews...

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1008 on: October 12, 2015, 10:24:41 PM »
Nukefix,

I could have told you: Don't drink Heineken.

If you can afford a drone to the ice edge, why not send a drone back to Ilulissat to fetch one of the local brews...

Carlsberg is by no means better!

"Probably the worst beer in Denmark"
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 10:30:43 PM by Espen »
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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1009 on: October 12, 2015, 10:37:23 PM »
Quote
hijacking the event as ESA did in August 2015
Do folks know about the forum? Seems like we have largely blocked it from Google search, results just shows bare text and bad links, no images. So maybe they just visit the sea ice news page. I noticed ESA borrowed the 1400 m depth, a 'discussion number' I had picked out of the air for ice depth at the calving front.

Here's the scoop on drones, affordable off-the-shelf instruments and autopilot freeware, it was nicely compiled by grad student JC Ryan who flew 3 sorties over Store Glacier to the north. The question is katabatic winds, how frequent (and suddenly) do they swoop down on our favorite launching rock at the south branch? Never mind the tent blowing away like in that youTube, the drone could get knocked down.

Is it too late to launch Espen out of CPH this month? There's a direct flight to Kanger and short hops up to illulisat and the viewpoint. We don't exactly have a drone commissioned yet.

www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1/2015/

So far ESA has just posted an EW GRDH for the 12th (see Espen's animation above, or the hh hv color below), no IW. It's important to reproject these to Landsat so we get a more extensive co-located time series, done roughly below. Animation may need a click. Note how the second frame (HH polarization) does a better job on the shadowed edge.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1010 on: October 12, 2015, 11:28:58 PM »
Quote
hijacking the event as ESA did in August 2015
Do folks know about the forum? Seems like we have largely blocked it from Google search, results just shows bare text and bad links, no images. So maybe they just visit the sea ice news page. I noticed ESA borrowed the 1400 m depth, a 'discussion number' I had picked out of the air for ice depth at the calving front.

Here's the scoop on drones, affordable off-the-shelf instruments and autopilot freeware, it was nicely compiled by grad student JC Ryan who flew 3 sorties over Store Glacier to the north. The question is katabatic winds, how frequent (and suddenly) do they swoop down on our favorite launching rock at the south branch? Never mind the tent blowing away like in that youTube, the drone could get knocked down.

Is it too late to launch Espen out of CPH this month? There's a direct flight to Kanger and short hops up to illulisat and the viewpoint. We don't exactly have a drone commissioned yet.

www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1/2015/

So far ESA has just posted an EW GRDH for the 12th (see Espen's animation above, or the hh hv color below), no IW. It's important to reproject these to Landsat so we get a more extensive co-located time series, done roughly below. Animation may need a click. Note how the second frame (HH polarization) does a better job on the shadowed edge.

And they picked my original estimate of 12,5 km2

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.msg60942.html#msg60942
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 11:43:49 PM by Espen »
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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1011 on: October 13, 2015, 03:58:22 AM »
Quote
1400 m depth, a 'discussion number' I had picked out of thin air
they picked my original estimate of 12,5 km2
Nothing to see here but coincidences, move along.

The image below shows a low quality co-localization of the Oct 10th Landsat and the Oct 12th Sentinel. First note that the icebergs calved  on the 10th have been pushed out of view to way down the fjord. It appears that the area tinted pink has calved. If so, the Landsat did catch the event more or less mid-event.

Some of the larger bergs in the last weeks have had perplexing concave shapes, with cylindrical hollows on top. We've not seen this in youTubes, those bergs have been convex rounded or slab-like.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 04:13:56 AM by A-Team »

sidd

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1012 on: October 13, 2015, 06:58:40 AM »
Re:We could wish the raw experimental DEM data were not so opaque in the immediate vicinity of the sill (or is it? sidd has been otherwise occupied)

i continue to be, but from memory, the Bamber(2013) reconstruction of bed topo already incorporated Morlinghem mass balance model ...

for direct measurement of bed topo, suggest mebbe CRESIS ?

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1013 on: October 13, 2015, 07:09:32 AM »
Re: Jacobshawn bed


doi: 10.3189/2014JoG14J129

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1014 on: October 13, 2015, 01:52:51 PM »
When I look at all of the images of the south branch over the last two pages of this thread, I can't  help but be amazed by how far back the northern wall of the south branch has receded. (I know, I  am obsessed with this north wall.) I have always argued that the receding main calving face has had a dramatic impact on this north wall causing rapid deterioration.  I think this is correct but I actually believe I have missed the truly big story here. It is not so much that the retreat of the main calving face of the south branch has unpinned the north wall. I think the really big story is that the receding  north wall has unpinned the main calving face. There is no going back to the old behavior on the  south branch. That northern wall helped stabilize the main calving face and it will no longer do this. I fear we are going to see a rapid retreat of the main calving face around the bend until it stabilizes again right over the sill.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1015 on: October 13, 2015, 06:48:38 PM »
That might be the most expensive luxury hotel in the world as absolutely everything would need to be flown in with helicopters from Ilulissat that is 50km away. Ilulissat was already "interesting" pricewise as a pint of Heineken & a bottle of Carlsberg set me back 20€ in a non-fancy bar.
After my half-serious joke I had a closer look at Ilulissat tourism... And now I wonder why the 4-star Hotel Arctic hasn't yet done it, as an addition to the Eqip glacier lodge. Hotel Arctic also offers nice aluminium-igloo structures at the edge of the Ice Fjord. (Famous singer Björk enjoyed staying for weeks in one.) Maybe they could be air-lifted up to the place. A perverse waste of helicopter fuel... But if it's just 50km?


http://hotelarctic.com/rooms_and_services/iglo/

http://www.glacierlodgeeqi.com/

---------------
Apropos beer price: 30y ago I was at the top glacier skiing station in Zermatt facing the Matterhorn. 0.2l of orange juice cost 6 Sfr. So 20€ for some beer doesn't sound that "expensive"...
« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 06:59:15 PM by Martin Gisser »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1016 on: October 14, 2015, 01:11:47 PM »
That might be the most expensive luxury hotel in the world as absolutely everything would need to be flown in with helicopters from Ilulissat that is 50km away. Ilulissat was already "interesting" pricewise as a pint of Heineken & a bottle of Carlsberg set me back 20€ in a non-fancy bar.
After my half-serious joke I had a closer look at Ilulissat tourism... And now I wonder why the 4-star Hotel Arctic hasn't yet done it, as an addition to the Eqip glacier lodge. Hotel Arctic also offers nice aluminium-igloo structures at the edge of the Ice Fjord. (Famous singer Björk enjoyed staying for weeks in one.) Maybe they could be air-lifted up to the place. A perverse waste of helicopter fuel... But if it's just 50km?
A single heli-trip from Ilulissat to the ice front and back costs 2400 EUR (5 people in an AS350).

http://www.touristnature.com/English/HelicopterTour.htm

Heli-time is expensive, perhaps quality beer could be air-dropped from a small plane to help to bring the prices down to mere rockstar-level :o
« Last Edit: October 14, 2015, 01:45:28 PM by nukefix »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1017 on: October 15, 2015, 12:29:06 AM »
I captured some frames of scientific interest from the May 2-14 calving event filmed by Ruben Wernberg-Poulsen on an AirZafari flight. It turns out that it is much higher resolution than the usual youTube format and is still quite sharp on a full 21" monitor. The whole 11 minutes are up at JE Box's blog http://jasonbox.net/news/

What happened here is section of the calving front broke off, rolling backwards and exposing a very deep piece that stayed intact. The 'sapphire blue' bubble-free surface of this piece faced the ocean. The surface crevasses proved to be quite superficial and shed off right away. Note the giant calved piece is quite hollowed out and not to be confused with a flat slap.
There are several different blues within the bubble-free stack and what seem to be two kinds of yellowish impurities that extend into the clear ice. The ice has no visible stratifications; indeed age isochron reflections have been lost from ice-penetrating radar for 30 km upstream, though they still can be seen beyond the sides. It's fair to say that a lot has gone on with this ice that is completely missing from the models.

The very last frame of the animation shows a nearby berg may represent the very bottom ice that was in contact with till and bedrock. It has two striations.

Jakobshavn has been calving sapphire blue ice for nearly 9 years now but the scientific community has yet to bestir itself to measure either the all-important temperature profile or strain history as recorded in the ice crystal pattern.

Given the ease of instrumented drone overflight, versus the insurmountable difficulties of drilling a conventional ice core, this has to be the top experimental priority for this ice stream. Once it runs aground on the Illulisat sill, it is relatively safe to land by helicopter and take samples.

Note a massive slab of ice like this quickly restores its intrinsic surface temperature despite being washed over by waves, floating in fjord water and siting a few days in the sun. That's because of its immense thermal inertia and better heat conductivity. This is a very thick slab of ice as can be seen from the ~30 m of freeboard.

The side show is at full size so will need a click to get started. The smaller animation looks for true sapphire blue but  not even one pixel is officially sapphire blue even at r=12. Box's site thus used some poetic license. It too needs a click.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2015, 10:28:19 AM by A-Team »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1018 on: October 15, 2015, 12:38:46 AM »
The Sentinel for the 14th is shown below. For reasons unknown, its DMI preview counterpart is totally washed out and the Sentinel from two days ago is not as clear. The next-to-last Landsat of the year comes on the 17th; after that Sentinel goes into IW mode on the 26th (and stays there until May). After this hanger-on ice is calved, I don't see much preconditioned ice upglacier, so from here on out the calving front balance tilts toward conventional glacier creep, ~30 m per day or two pixels of Landsat-8 band-8.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1019 on: October 15, 2015, 02:54:19 AM »
so the saffire blue is ice never seen before?


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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1020 on: October 15, 2015, 03:42:32 AM »
This sapphire color is very similar to the 'blue whale' seen emerging in "Chasing Ice", see earlier frame grab in #704. Jakobshavn shifted from ice shelf to grounded calvings in 2004 so presumably has been calving blue ice the last 11 years.

This is apparently the first overhead video of a calving event. A shoreline view of a horizontal slab from 2-3 km away doesn't compare with circling twice in a propeller plane at low altitude. However blue ice can be studied at leisure since it will be grounded for weeks at the fjord entrance.

One could simply watch satellite imagery, wait for a major calving event,  purchase a plane ticket to Reykjavik --> Kanger --> Illulisat, and then visit the blue ice via drone or helicopter. All for $2k.

Yet 9 out of 10 glaciologists have preferred to stay home and dry lab yet another worthless model paper that doesn't embody critical ice rheology parameters. Even when those parameters are practically handed to them on a platter.

How many frigging grad students are there at UW alone? -- I've seen 3 stay-at-home dissertations on Jakobshavn just out of Seattle. Aberystwyth had a grad student out there with a heavily instrumented drone all summer in 2013 but he never got to fly the blue ice.

So to 'scientific reticence' we need to add 'scientific passivity': wait for an employee of a tour company to alert us to a passenger who took some overhead video 16 months after the ice has melted in the North Atlantic.

The question here is not whether upper layer air bubbles in the firn have been squeezed down to nothing (or a size still appropriate for Tyndall or even Rayleigh backscatter of incident sunlight both of which fall off by ν4 ) -- of course they're severely compressed by ~1000 m of ice overburden.

JE Box suggests at the linked blog that air is now in N2 O2 clathrates whereas that doesn't seem to jibe with either the phase diagram or extensive data on the brittle zone in Greenland ice cores, since the temperature here will inevitably be on the warm side. It comes down to why the embedded air is not violently decompressing once the ice is lying on its side and the pressure is down to atmospheric. Yet looking at the slide deck, the blue slab has white sides and in some places is cascading off the sides. But not the top where the pressure is similarly low.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2015, 10:27:25 AM by A-Team »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1021 on: October 15, 2015, 09:43:09 AM »
In these icebergs the boundary between sapphire and white ice can be rather sharp (meters to tens of meters only), which might perhaps suggest that it is refrozen water instead of compressed glacial ice?

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1022 on: October 15, 2015, 11:28:34 AM »
Nukefix, I agree!

Refrozen meltwater is the most likely explanation.

As I try to recall my many hours at sea and flying over the area since the 1980ies, I have severe difficulties remembering anything like these clear blue ice formations. Yes,  occasional clear blue-ice streaks resembling water frozen in crevasses did occur, but never on the scale observed during the past couple of years.

I think A-team – in another thread – has vividly demonstrated through radar imagery, that large areas below the ice-streams in Greenland have accumulated huge amounts of refrozen meltwater near the bottom over the past decade.

The original mechanism should quite obviously be, that sills in the valleys lead to pressure melting on the upstream side and refreezing on the downstream side of the sill.

In the past 10 years or so, this process has been accentuated by meltwater from lakes on the ice surface. Môulins - going all the way from surface to bottom - will most likely form, where the flowing ice has to pass a sill. At the same time, glacial ice - near the bottom of the ice-streams – is still well below freezing, when it reaches the margin.

Let’s just wait for the day, when the bottom ice reaches the pressure-melting point everywhere, then we will no longer see these beautiful sapphire monuments of the fossil era.

Cheers P

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1023 on: October 15, 2015, 11:49:26 AM »
Quote
refrozen water instead of compressed glacial ice?
The image below shows an approximate 1 km vertical cross-section of the calving front, minus the crevassed top and whatever is missing from very bottom. Click to see at full resolution. We don't know the exact scale of the photo since the logical embedded control, the height function of the calving front, wasn't measured then or now.

While this is not ideal for purposes of spectroscopy, we do know from sharp shadows that this was a sunny day in mid-May  at 69ºN and so the angle and energy spectrum of incident light. We can only guess at the camera, its spectral sensitivity and contrast post-processing. However the video does quite well in reproducing known colors of rocks and open water much as the human eye would see them.

Colors in the vertical transect are quite complicated, there's much more going on than just blues and whites. In terms of transition sharpness in meters needed for onset of bubble collapse, we would want to consult with an optical scan of say the NEEM ice cores. These are done at sub-millimeter resolution right at the drill site, again as backscatter rather than transmission.

The originals should be archived online (since the scan is referenced in several peer-reviewed publications) but given the unique custom and culture of data-hoarding in glaciology, I'm not sure this is actually the case.

However in celebratory photographs, the ice appears bluish for the last 900 meters above bedrock. Blue is the natural color of thick pure ice for the same reason the sky and ocean are blue, Rayleigh scattering. H2O is itself clear (transparent) -- there are no spectral lines in the visible (ie does not absorb there).

The ice in the image, in terms of light transmission is very clear, like an Andy Lee Robinson melt cube. In fact, it's so clear that a large yellow volume appears to be embedded deep within this otherwise transparent ice.

Meltwater, either moulin or autochthonously produced from friction or pressure variation, could refreeze on the bottom under some phase diagram circumstances (such as suggested by P-Maker). However those conditions are narrow and not necessarily met. It seems a stretch to refreeze 800 m of bottom ice in that way in the short time this ice has been in rapid transit. At 15 km a year, not that long ago this calved ice was far past the ablation zone, sourced from 100 kyr of mundanely stratified ice sheet.

It is not rocket science to experimentally determined the temperature profile from top to bottom. There's been blue ice conveniently stranded on the terminal moraine all summer. According to the heat equation, the true temperature will be retained quite well for weeks after calving. This data will greatly reduce the theoretical sand castles that still need to be considered.

In terms of remelting/refreezing, the re-equilibrated temperatures of steam-drilled cores in and adjacent to the ice stream are on the cold side, -25ºC in mid- nterior. However the very lowest section would be warmer and we have no real grip on how geothermal heating or basal friction vary along the south branch. The latter would vary markedly by season and with velocity trends. However if the lower interior ice were anywhere near melting, Jakobshavn would be thinning vastly more rapidly than observed. Which it may very well do in the fairly near-term future.

The bizarre bottom refreeze or buoyancy upheaval structures seen upglacier from Petermann and Zachariae are largely restricted, for reasons unknown, to northern Greenland. The farthest south these features get is an isolated upwelling at Epiq for which there are hand-waving theories but no convincing explanation. (An explanation must not just explain an occurrence but also explain all the absences of occurrences.) Needless to say, I've looked but not found any in the Jakobshavn area.

I've examined all 22 years of ice penetrating radar data too for layering  -- Jakobshavn is densely sampled almost every year, more than anywhere else in Greenland. Even though the west central Greenland ice sheet is entirely unperturbed and exactly as expected in its stratifications over 99% of its area, no structures can be seen in the ice stream itself, even though easily identified age layers reach the coast at Swiss Camp and Kanger.

Thus the ice feeding the south branch comes in well-stratified top to bottom but something then happens to it causing that to be entirely lost from the whole column, not just lower ice. These radar-reflective layers are associated with huge paleo volcanic events, not so much with tephra shards but rather deposited ionic polarity. Usually flow is modeled in 2D vertical sections that would retain stratifications as there is no mechanism for enhanced diffusivity in the upper layers.

The puzzling loss of stratification has never been addressed in a journal publication (which is equally puzzling). The actual transition to loss onset is not so clear because track density is sparse above the ablation zone. (It looks dense in the second image but radar specs were not the best in some years.) That's been attributed by on-board scientists to the acute boredom of flying hour after hour over unchanging regional stratification.

We know for certain that the blue ice did not form post-event because it lasted less than 11 minutes; the berg and specific features were in view essentially the whole time and constant in appearance (after discounting for water sloshing over).
« Last Edit: October 15, 2015, 01:53:38 PM by A-Team »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1024 on: October 15, 2015, 01:10:38 PM »
A-team,

6-8 years in a row (including 2012) receiving fresh meltwater from an environment like this (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86564 ) should in my mind provide enough meltwater to build up 2/3 of a km of blue ice near the bottom of the Jakobshavn Isbræ.

If on average - meltwater from a 100 x 100 km area with approximately 1/3 of the surface covered by appr. 3 m deep lakes every summer reached the bottom - it would take only 7 summers to produce 70 km3 of refrozen ice.

With a thickness of 0.7 km across a 1 km wide cross section of the glacier front, this “blob of blue ice” would extend roughly 100 km inland.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1025 on: October 15, 2015, 02:26:00 PM »
Which of those meltwater lakes in the picture actually drain to the Jakobshavn channel (very few), how many have moulins allowing the meltwater to reach bedrock (hardly any), how much meltwater gets frozen on the bottom (possibly none), how much gushes out the bottom of the calving frontinto the ocean (lots, based on Rignot's sonar measurments of glaciers just to the north), why is the surface elevation of the Jakobshavn icestream steadily dropping (rather than rising from all the ice being added to the bottom), where did the 800 m of original ice go, why is the internal temperature still so cold, where are the till layers in the blue ice from bottom refreezing the 100 m of hydrated till sitting on the bedrock?

It's equally important to explain 100's of meters of upper white ice in the calving video as explain the blue. I see no other option than scattering from firn air bubbles. We know that whole white-to-blue pressure collapse story in great detail from Greenland ice cores and this is a good match to ice depths here. And the very bottom ice from a core is discolored just like the dirty brown berg representing bottom (final slide). We're looking at the rectangular slab version of a cylindrical ice core. End of story, Occam's Razor.

The story told today on the ice sheet just to the south is that meltwater develops very efficient drainage channels over the season. Injected fluorescene dye exits very quickly indeed. Later on, the tunnels close off as meltwater freezes within them (just like a lava tube). After a big late-season rain, the meltwater drains very inefficiently over a broad surface and the whole local ice sheet is lifted up temporarily by its hydraulic pressure. As best I can recall, bottom refreeze-on is just a theoretical exercise from RB Alley about ten years back concerning very special circumstances under which it might happen.

For many west-side marine terminating glaciers, the warm ocean waters would not have the effect they are having on calving fronts without turbulent mixing from meltwater exiting basally at high velocity. While I would suggest (from the asymmetry) that the primary exit channel for Jakobshavn meltwater is in the southeast corner of the calving front, some calving fronts that have been experimentally studied have multiple exit points.

No experimental measurements of meltwater inflow or discharge volume exist for Jakobshavn's south branch at this time. It is too risky to get anywhere near the calving front in an expensively equipped boat because of melange movement and the possibility of a calving event.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2015, 02:59:22 PM by A-Team »

Timothy Astin

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1026 on: October 15, 2015, 03:05:54 PM »
Professor Box does say on his news page in a label on a picture of the blue ice "air bubbles compressed into clathrates and/or refrozen meltwater"; and in the text " Extreme pressure from 500-900 m ice overburden plus extreme strain due to friction between the glacier and its bed, strain heating, all seem to compress air bubbles straining the white ice into denser blue ice. Else, likely pressure melting, possible freeze-on of melt water or sea water may also be at play to produce the curious sapphire blue basal ice on display in this extremely large iceberg calving event."

So he does seem to cover all the bases!

One additional observation: seen early on in the film, the darkest blue ice does seem to be localised laterally along the calving face.  I infer that this corresponds to the deepest topography of the outflow.


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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1027 on: October 15, 2015, 03:09:55 PM »
Hi A-team, no offence

Please have a look at this article: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n7/full/ngeo2179.html (paywalled), which I must admit I have not yet had time to read.

I noted from the abstract from 2014, that a mechanism - like the one I suggested - has already been identified further north in Greenland.

Apparently, it is not only
Quote
“just a theoretical exercise from RB Alley about ten years back concerning very special circumstances under which it might happen.”

Timothy, thanks!

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1028 on: October 16, 2015, 02:54:08 AM »
"..After a big late-season rain, the meltwater drains very inefficiently over a broad surface and the whole local ice sheet is lifted up temporarily by its hydraulic pressure."

With ice 9/10ths the density of water (roughly) then for uplift to occur you need a closed system containing the ice mass and water with a free surface level at least 9/10ths of the height/depth of the ice mass in order for the displacement uplift to equal the ice mass. 

Such a sealed system must prevail with the Antarctic's Lake Vostok (50 km wide by 250 km long) to support the ice mass above this huge lake and its 200 m to 800 m water depth, otherwise the 4000 metres of ice above would simply crush down to the lake floor.  So in the core hole they drilled a free water surface must persist about 400 metres or less below the surface of the ice.

But is it really likely that any substantial area of an active fast-moving glacier would be able to create the necessary hydraulic water tightness to achieve uplift?  Seems unlikely to me.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1029 on: October 16, 2015, 10:00:38 AM »
Can someone explain to an amateur glaciologist like myself what this transport and refreezing of meltwater does to the temperature of the ice-stream? (yes, direct measurements would help)

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1030 on: October 16, 2015, 10:26:05 AM »
Just watched the video. Superb. And he's only 13 years old! I am thinking how many videos like this exist but haven't been uploaded. A drone campaign would provide so many insights and statistics. Considering that JH is the canary in the coalmine, humanity should be more observant.

I am wondering about the rolling over backwards, with the huge piece popping up feet first. Is that a common failure behavior? What is the mechanism behind it?

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1031 on: October 16, 2015, 10:28:49 AM »
I am wondering about the rolling over backwards, with the huge piece popping up feet first. Is that a common failure behavior? What is the mechanism behind it?
Since ice is buoyant the slice has no other choice but to roll over once it has cracked off the ice-stream.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1032 on: October 16, 2015, 10:50:11 AM »
Nukefix,

Actual measurements in these tracts are – as A-team says – hard to find.

A few point to consider though (JIB is shorthand for Jakobshavn Isbræ):

1)   Advection of cold (-25 C) glacial ice at a speed of up to 15 km/y in the deeper core of the JIB ice-stream will provide a large freezing capacity
2)   Blue lakes do drain through the ice and are the most likely source of pure, “bubble-free” water on both sides of the JIB canyon some 30-100 km from the front
3)   The clean and transparent sapphire ice is most likely not formed at the bottom of the canyon, otherwise silt and dirt would be visible and make the ice opaque
4)   I faintly recall from a number of tracer experiment on the JIB in the 1980ies, that dye tracers were impossible to track at the glacier front
5)   The main difference between the “cigar” of  refrozen meltwater under JIB and other “plumes” of refrozen meltwater under ice-streams further north in Greenland is most likely the very fast advection of cold ice through JIB

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1033 on: October 16, 2015, 10:58:48 AM »
"...The smaller animation looks for true sapphire blue but finds not even one pixel of it at Jakobshavn..."

What is the practical distinction between the readily-perceived-by-eye Very Blue of the ice shown in the video and 'true sapphire blue' ice?

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1034 on: October 16, 2015, 12:24:27 PM »
I am wondering about the rolling over backwards, with the huge piece popping up feet first. Is that a common failure behavior? What is the mechanism behind it?

I think a commentary on a video posted here in the last month or two suggested that it was common despite people tending to expect the top to topple forwards to be more common.

Mechanism - entirely wild speculating here: It either has to topple forwards or feet first else it is still in same orientation being pushed forwards by the glacier. Toppling forwards is perhaps inhibited because rotating that way the back bottom of the calved wants to dig into and/or lift the base of un-calved glacier which is under a lot of pressure and hence strongly resisted. Hence calving more likely to happen when there is some movement at the base of the calved piece - while there is a limit to how far the top can rotate, just a little sagging of the back edge will tend to keep the movement at the base going.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1035 on: October 16, 2015, 03:17:18 PM »
About the roll behaviour giving feet up first...

The calving face is a tensional (extensional) crack.
The natural angle of a fully confined extensional, normal fault at depth is to dip at about 30 degrees to the vertical. As the surface, near-vertical crevasse propogates downwards, it will curve to approach the dip angle of a normal fault. The dipping normal fault will continue until it reaches the base of the glacier. This means that the toe of the calved slice starts off further down the fjord than the top of the slice.

So it is natural for quite narrow calved slabs to roll backwards, as seen at Jakobshaven and at Zachariae Isstrom.  This also accounts for the observed concave upper face of the calved berg (being the fracture face left from a previous calving).

The same bounding fracture shape is seen in rock landslides.

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1036 on: October 16, 2015, 09:54:51 PM »
I guess Greenland must be secured for a while, with those Sapphires in the books?

Here is another "Flip the Sapphire":
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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1037 on: October 17, 2015, 12:45:09 AM »
Quote
people expect topple forwards... inhibited because the back bottom of the calved wants to dig into and/or lift the base of un-calved glacier.
Right, someone even tested this in a instrumented tank for the Helheim seismic article.

Since scientists don't keep records on Jakobshavn, we are working from 3 happenstantial youTube posts, of which 2 toppled back and 1 forward. It seems impossible to recover earlier events. The relevant record should go back to 2004 when Jakobshavn first started calving off a ground zone. Presumably height of ice, depth to bedrock, slope of bedrock, bottom till and seasonal velocity figure in somewhere.

Rolling to hydrostatic equilibrium is a wonderful textbook concept but right now we seem to have a pencil balanced on its head at the calving front (see latest Sentinel above) and I'm predicting it will still be there on tomorrow afternoon's Landsat. Actually my expectations are low: opaque clouds.

Quote
observed concave upper face of the calved berg (being the fracture face left from a previous calving).
Nice comment! Ice remains subject to brittle fracture right up to the melting temperature; rocks are relevant.

We know in this instance that the top of the berg was previously exposed to ocean water along its entire length. For how long? JE Box did not disclose the calving date other than May 2014. I couldn't pin it down any better than [May 15th, June 1st] with the few clear Landsats on file.

It matters if the face had been exposed to ocean water all winter. More likely it is quite fresh, maybe ten days of exposure. If any ocean ice were frozen on to the freshwater glacial ice, I would expect it to be shaken off by the turbulence of the event. I don't expect crystal growth across the interface could hold it together.

The bottom is also a fresh face but just now being exposed to sea water. It is complimentary to the new glacier calving face for which we can only see the part above the waterline. To test the concavity prediction, we could maybe track the time to meltdown to get at thickness but this becomes iffy as the berg strands, breaks into pieces, flushes out in the bay, becoming unrecognizable given the sparce Landsats left this season. Even if we got another event, we wouldn't know if it too was a rollback.

Quote
What is the practical distinction between the readily-perceived-by-eye Very Blue of the ice shown in the video and 'true sapphire blue' ice?
Well, the idea was to seed a full-blown virtual spectrophotometric scan of the top-to-bottom transect; that is, map the transect's trajectory through color cube space. Will we see a gradient on horizontal layering or a sharp bubble cutoff? The seed didn't sprout -- no one has jumped in to do this. (It's a freebie in Gimp or Photoshop.)

You can see already though that there are many shades of yellow, white and blue here, none of which are legal sapphire blue. This is not emission or transmission but reflectance of sunlight already diminished from blackbody spectrum by atmospheric adsorption lines. Various optical complications arise from angular ice surfaces.

Espen linked to an Alaskan berg rollover video. As ice melts on the bottom, the berg can suddenly find itself too far out of hydrostatic equilibrium. The colors tell a different story here. This little berg started off all white, not from bubbles but just from poor firn compaction. The part in the water soon gets evened out by melt, turning it blue. The white freeboard  will turn blue very shortly after the tip.

This won't happen with the berg here. The white stayed white even as it sat facing ocean water for ten days. Water overwash has no effect on the white -- it can't get at the bubbles, they go the whole 300 meters through to the other face. The edge though is white from fragmentation roughening; the plane returned to Illulisat before the blue could fully play out on the underwater portion..
« Last Edit: October 17, 2015, 01:21:40 AM by A-Team »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1038 on: October 18, 2015, 05:08:38 PM »
The Landsat bureaucrats have pulled another plug out from under Jakobshavn time series. Although there's still plenty of sunlight and the low angle shots are among the very most valuable for shadowing topography, they've stop acquiring path 8 and path 10 leaving us with only path 9 for the 26th, if that.

The acquisition schedule is only posted 4 days ahead. Oddly it is showing a path 8, row 11 for Monday day 292, a scene that it didn't acquire last go-round. This erratic scheduling is very bizarre considering how many monitored sites worldwide benefit from a regular time series.
http://landsat.usgs.gov//L8_Pend_Acq/y2015/Oct/Oct-19-2015.txt

Petermann at 82ºN got cut off on Sept 27th. That doesn't matter so much for our purposes since things have frozen up and there is satisfactory monitoring with Sentinel. We need IW acquisition mode at Jakobshavn, that doesn't kick in unti the 26th.

The figure below shows late season Landsat-8 for the two previous years. In 2013-14, quite sharp Oct 31st and Nov 1st images were taken. As the illumination dims, pixels in the visible wavelength bands tend to reside more and more in the lower corner of the color cube. Even at 12-bit depth, the ability to get natural color out via contrast adjustment diminishes just as it does for our eyes at twilight. However in terms of monitoring calving front and berg displacement, the loss of color is not too important.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2015, 12:02:03 AM by A-Team »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1039 on: October 18, 2015, 05:53:00 PM »
I took a deep dive into the Dark Internet yesterday, finding three breakthrough AGU2011 abstracts never resulting in journal articles, a rather good 2012 article that was refused in peer review but persists as a ghostly discussion paper, a scanned 1996 paper only available at ResearchGate even though neither author joined, a masters thesis and Ph.D dissertation from a seismic geologist who left BP after Maconda went to grad school and then joined Chevron this May without writing up journal articles, an AGU 2015 abstract from his thesis adviser, and a cryptic abstract from an uncommunicative Chinese scientist that may be the most important of all.

These concern seismic and gravity tools applied to Jakobshavn to find out what is going on under the ice. Radar at best can get to the bottom of this ice but seismic can provide information on till depth and density, hydration state, liquid deformation and reworking under glacier movement as well as liquid water and surprisingly distinguish crystal orientation fabrics (COFs). Gravity can get at the geology of bedrock and possibly a fault that defined the later deep channel of the glacier.

Over the last 20 years, each incoming result seems to contradict all the previous ones. Have we finally reached the end game in 2015 about basal traction under the ice stream?

More details in a bit but mostly I've learned in doing this that we are far better off studying neighboring Store Glacier than spinning our wheels experimentally and theoretically at Jakobshavn, an ice stream that remains out of reach. There's a very impressive ongoing research program there called SAFIRE (Subglacial Access and Fast Ice Research Experiment) for which we need a separate forum.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2015, 11:50:40 PM by A-Team »

nukefix

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1040 on: October 19, 2015, 12:01:23 PM »
Here's the S-1 IW from 18.10.2015...loads of new icebergs form the recent calvings are present

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1041 on: October 19, 2015, 05:55:10 PM »
That is an awesome Sentinel. With any luck with Landsat clouds tomorrow, we should be able to tell in the future which Sentinel bergs have blue ice without having to fall back on a Landsat.

The animation below compares it to the 10 Oct 15 Landsat. Since 8 days have elapsed, the ice stream has advanced something like 16 pixels (assuming 15 m resolution and 30 m/velocity = 2 pixels/day x 8 days). In the last frame, I cut out the ice stream and advanced it 16 pixels to bring it into synch with the Sentinel.

The red calving front boundary for the 18th is duplicated on the last frame (the manually advanced Landsat). It's clear from this that the new calving front took out the preconditioned ice at the predicted boundary.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2015, 07:01:49 PM by A-Team »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1042 on: October 19, 2015, 07:19:33 PM »
Is this a new product from Sentinel? Now I am starting to get impressed!

Watch the northern "shore" of the southern branch? The island is starting to be more "visible"
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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1043 on: October 19, 2015, 08:51:22 PM »
Quote
The island is starting to be more "visible"
What island?

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1044 on: October 19, 2015, 08:58:05 PM »
Quote
The island is starting to be more "visible"
What island?

Here:
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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1045 on: October 19, 2015, 09:26:36 PM »
Lets name it while we are at it: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Island. Or in Danish: Arktis Havis Forum Ø. Or in short ASIF Ø Somehow similar to Sif in the Nordic Mythology who was the wife of Thor, should be accepted by the place name committee that be.

https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sif
« Last Edit: October 19, 2015, 09:50:05 PM by Espen »
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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1046 on: October 19, 2015, 09:33:45 PM »
This re-posted image from Reply #225 helps to clarify the implications if the ASI Forum Island becomes exposed:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1047 on: October 19, 2015, 11:21:20 PM »
Quote
ASIF Ø Somehow similar to Sif wife of Thor, should be accepted by the place name committee
What about floating the notion of Æspen Ølsen to the committee?

Note the only information about what is under the ice comes from a single 2008 Cresis radar overflight, namely 20080710_05_010. Everything else is kridging (interpolation), ie guesswork. As you can see the data is far too sparse for that to be effective at this scale. The data we have shows the ice surface in 2012 to be a 165 m knob at the end of a peninsula that is slightly above sea level.

Bedrock itself is ambiguous because of poor functionality of the 2008 radar but Cresis does show it peeking out 35 m above sea level (lower dotted green intersected with vertical dotted red). That is 500 m*6 pxl/86 pxl = 35 m. So unless the ice has thinned markedly over the last seven years, we have 165-35 = 130 m of ice to go before any dome rock is exposed.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2015, 11:58:51 PM by A-Team »

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1048 on: October 19, 2015, 11:54:37 PM »
The Landsat for Oct 19th is so cloudy that I had to use an older path 8 row 12 just to crop it out of the larger scene. Not a lot of information in this...
« Last Edit: October 20, 2015, 12:04:10 AM by A-Team »

nukefix

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Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland
« Reply #1049 on: October 20, 2015, 09:36:54 AM »
Lets name it while we are at it: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Island. Or in Danish: Arktis Havis Forum Ø. Or in short ASIF Ø Somehow similar to Sif in the Nordic Mythology who was the wife of Thor, should be accepted by the place name committee that be.

https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sif
Picking a name from Inuit mythology would be more prudent I think.