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Author Topic: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)  (Read 46952 times)

Hyperion

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #300 on: May 28, 2017, 07:26:21 PM »
Guess its how you define mating benefits. Theres lots of studies showing women being more attracted to agresive behaviours and strongly masculine high testosterone features when fertile but the opposite the rest of the month.
And personally I think its probably the women more to blame for our predicament than the men. They are instinctively primed to be attracted to wealth that supports offspring. And generally too focused on nurturing only what is under their roof. And men tend to do only what they approve of. The divide and control game of foisting the nuclear family model and unnatural lifetime monogomy on us for the industrial devolution has had dire consequences.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #301 on: May 29, 2017, 01:08:32 AM »
While all kinds of decision makers are claiming progress in controlling GHG emissions the linked data indicates that these anthropogenic emissions are actually accelerating instead of decelerating, and that according to NOAA the CO₂ -equiv at the end of 2015 was 485 ppm. Most disturbing is the rapid growth in atmospheric methane concentrations, and I note that in NOAA's conversion of methane into CO₂-equiv they use the old formula (see the IPCC 2007 curve in the image in Reply #14) for methane's GWP, thus they are dumbing down these numbers by declining to utilize the most current science presented by Drew Shindell 2009 (see the figure in Reply #14):

http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html


         Global Radiative Forcing, CO2-equivalent mixing ratio, and the AGGI 1979-2013
                         Global Radiative Forcing (W m-2)           CO2-eq
                                                                                     (ppm)        AGGI
Year     CO2     CH4    N2O   CFC12 CFC11 15-minor  Total Total   1990 = 1   %change

2013   1.882  0.496   0.184   0.167   0.059   0.114  2.901   478      1.340        2.0
2014   1.908  0.499   0.187   0.166   0.058   0.116  2.935   481      1.356        1.6
2015   1.939  0.504   0.190   0.165   0.058   0.118  2.974   485      1.374        1.8

CH4   ΔF = β(M½ - Mo½) - [f(M,No) - f(Mo,No)]   β = 0.036


See also:
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/19052016/global-co2-emissions-still-accelerating-noaa-greenhouse-gas-index

Extract: "The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not just rising, it's accelerating, and another potent greenhouse gas, methane showed a big spike last year, according to the latest annual greenhouse gas index released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"This inventory shows the rate of releases are increasing. It's going completely in the wrong direction, with no sign that the planet as a whole has the problem under control," said Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist in the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who wasn't involved in compiling the inventory.

The index, now in its 10th year, measures how much of the sun's warmth is trapped in the atmosphere by gases like CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. The data is compiled from a global network of measuring stations, including the famed observatory atop Mauna Loa, known for having the longest continuous record of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Mauna Loa's CO2 levels for the northern hemisphere are currently about 4 ppm higher than this time last year. Scientists there predict it may not dip below 400 ppm again.
NOAA's index shows that CO2 concentration has risen by an average of 1.76 parts per million since it was established in 1979, and that increase is accelerating. In the 1980s and 1990s, it rose about 1.5 ppm per year. Over the last five years, the rate of increase has been about 2.5 ppm, said Ed Dlugokencky, a senior scientist with NOAA's Earth Systems Research Laboratory who helped compile the inventory."

Edit: I note that if one assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 35 instead of 25 (per the plot in Reply #14), then NOAA's calculated value for the CO2-eq for 2015 would be 518ppm instead of 485ppm; which is a big difference, and one that NOAA should publically acknowledge.

The linked NOAA website entitled: "THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)" was updated in Spring of 2017 with GHG data through the end of 2016 (see the attached images).  I note that if one assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 35 instead of 25 (per AR5), then NOAA's calculated value for the CO2-eq for 2016 would be 521ppm instead of 489ppm; which is a big difference, and one that NOAA should publically acknowledge.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

 Global Radiative Forcing, CO2-equivalent mixing ratio, and the AGGI
                         Global Radiative Forcing (W m-2)           CO2-eq
                                                                                     (ppm)        AGGI
Year     CO2     CH4    N2O   CFC12 CFC11 15-minor  Total Total   1990 = 1   %change

2013   1.882  0.496   0.184   0.167   0.059   0.114  2.901   478      1.340        2.0
2014   1.908  0.499   0.187   0.166   0.058   0.116  2.935   481      1.356        1.6
2015   1.939  0.504   0.190   0.165   0.058   0.118  2.974   485      1.374        1.8
2016   1.985  0.507   0.193   0.164   0.057   0.121  3.027   489      1.399        2.5

CH4   ΔF = β(M½ - Mo½) - [f(M,No) - f(Mo,No)]   β = 0.036
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 01:39:24 AM by AbruptSLR »
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nicibiene

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #302 on: May 29, 2017, 07:56:59 AM »
Found a paper from Dec 2016, Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071930/full

Abstract:

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #303 on: May 29, 2017, 06:32:00 PM »
nicibiene,

Thank you very much for the link, and for convenience I provide the following slightly more complete reference & smaller image of the associated Figure 3:

M. Etminan, G. Myhre, E. J. Highwood & K. P. Shine (27 December 2016), "Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071930

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071930/full

Abstract: "New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario."

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #304 on: June 01, 2017, 03:25:01 AM »
The linked article entitled: "Climate science bedeviled by 'tipping points'", discusses the very real risks of climate change tipping points:

https://phys.org/news/2017-01-climate-science-bedeviled.html

Extract: "Of the many things that keep climate scientists awake at night, tipping points may be the scariest.

To start with, these thresholds for deep, sometimes catastrophic change in the complex web of Earth's natural forces, caused by man-made global warming, are largely invisible.

You can't see them on the horizon, and could easily cross one without noticing.

Also, there is no turning back—at least not on a human timescale."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #305 on: June 03, 2017, 07:05:12 PM »
Thanks Abrupt, it will take some time to make a video with the suggested science. Will post it here when ready, cheers.

Hansen"s March 2016 YouTube video explains ice-climate feedback:


“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #306 on: June 04, 2017, 03:34:29 PM »
The linked reference presents new findings that the retreat of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet at the end of the last ice age resulted in the explosive release of methane from Arctic seafloor hydrates as overpressure from the ice sheet disappeared.  The researchers find that serves as a good past analogy of what may likely happen in the near-term future if the WAIS were to collapse, and/or if marine terminating glaciers in Greenland were to retreat rapidly.  As methane has a GWP100 of about 35 such explosive releases of methane could have a significant impact on global warming this century.  Such short-term methane forcings would be superimposed on top of Hansen's ice-climate feedback mechanism; and it is stupid that such likely temporary positive feedback mechanisms are not included in either AR5 or CMIP5 upper bound scenarios (see the attached image):


K. Andreassen, A. Hubbard, M. Winsborrow, H. Patton, S. Vadakkepuliyambatta, A. Plaza-Faverola, E. Gudlaugsson, P. Serov, A. Deryabin, R. Mattingsdal, J. Mienert & S. Bünz (02 Jun 2017), "Massive blow-out craters formed by hydrate-controlled methane expulsion from the Arctic seafloor",Science, Vol. 356, Issue 6341, pp. 948-953, DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4500

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6341/948

Abstract: "Widespread methane release from thawing Arctic gas hydrates is a major concern, yet the processes, sources, and fluxes involved remain unconstrained. We present geophysical data documenting a cluster of kilometer-wide craters and mounds from the Barents Sea floor associated with large-scale methane expulsion. Combined with ice sheet/gas hydrate modeling, our results indicate that during glaciation, natural gas migrated from underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs and was sequestered extensively as subglacial gas hydrates. Upon ice sheet retreat, methane from this hydrate reservoir concentrated in massive mounds before being abruptly released to form craters. We propose that these processes were likely widespread across past glaciated petroleum provinces and that they also provide an analog for the potential future destabilization of subglacial gas hydrate reservoirs beneath contemporary ice sheets."

"Methane takes the quick way out
Accounting for all the sources and sinks of methane is important for determining its concentration in the atmosphere. Andreassen et al. found evidence of large craters embedded within methane-leaking subglacial sediments in the Barents Sea, Norway. They propose that the thinning of the ice sheet at the end of recent glacial cycles decreased the pressure on pockets of hydrates buried in the seafloor, resulting in explosive blow-outs. This created the giant craters and released large quantities of methane into the water above."

See also:

http://gizmodo.com/hundreds-of-giant-seafloor-craters-produced-by-explosiv-1795721166

Extract: "The explosive release of methane gas from subglacial sediments produced massive craters on the seafloor. During a recent expedition to the area, Andreassen’s team documented well over a hundred of these craters, which measured between 300 and 1,000 meters (980 to 3,280 feet) wide. Hundreds of smaller craters measuring less than 300 meters wide were also observed, and the researchers identified more than 600 methane flares in-and-around the craters that are still spewing the gas, though at rates far lower than what transpired during the explosive phase. Some of these craters were identified in the 1990s, but new scanning techniques allowed the researchers to survey the seafloor comprehensively.

Importantly, Andreassen said similar blowouts could happen in the near future on account of climate change. Areas in front of retreating ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica could host underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs. These blowouts don’t happen very often, but their environmental impacts could be greater than the impacts of slow and gradual methane seepage, explained Andreassen."

&
https://phys.org/news/2017-06-massive-craters-methane-blow-outs-arctic.html

Extract: ""Our study provides the scientific community with a good past analogue for what may happen to future methane releases in front of contemporary, retreating ice sheets" concludes Andreassen."
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 03:43:22 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #307 on: June 04, 2017, 04:31:39 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Remember the Carbon Footprint of War"'; which points out that the carbon footprint of wars can be significant and has been left out of AR5 & CMIP5 forcing scenarios:

http://www.psr.org/chapters/oregon/assets/pdfs/remember-the-carbon-footprint.pdf
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― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #308 on: June 18, 2017, 05:02:44 PM »
The Wikipedia article (see the first link) is entitled: "8.2 kiloyear event", and it discusses a likely near instantaneous freshwater hosing event about 8.2 kya (6,200 B.C.E.) that is speculated to have caused an ice-climate interaction (ala Hansen) that caused a several century long cooling event in the North Hemisphere and abrupt sea level rise (SLR). The second linked pdf discusses the fingerprint effect on SLR for the abrupt drainage of Lake Agassiz-Ojibway (see the first image).  I cite this event as an example of an upper bound of which might happen if the grounded marine glacier in the Byrd Subglacier Basin (BSB) were to sustain an abrupt collapse due to propagating cliff failures; which per the second attached image, I believe could happen circa 2060.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event

Extract: "The 8.2 kiloyear cooling event may have been caused by a large meltwater pulse from the final collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet of northeastern North America, most likely when the glacial lakes Ojibway and Agassiz suddenly drained into the North Atlantic Ocean.

The initial meltwater pulse caused between 0.5 and 4 m (1 ft 8 in and 13 ft 1 in) of sea-level rise. Based on estimates of lake volume and decaying ice cap size, values of 0.4–1.2 m (1 ft 4 in–3 ft 11 in) circulate. Based on sea-level data from the Mississippi Delta, the very final stage of the Lake Agassiz–Ojibway (LAO) drainage occurred at 8.31 to 8.18 ka and ranges from 0.8 to 2.2 m. The sea-level data from the Rhine–Meuse Delta indicate a 2–4 m (6 ft 7 in–13 ft 1 in) of near-instantaneous rise at 8.54–8.2 ka, in addition to 'normal' post-glacial sea-level rise. Meltwater pulse sea-level rise was experienced fully at great distance from the release area. Gravity and rebound effects associated with the shifting of water masses meant that the sea-level fingerprint was smaller in areas closer to the Hudson Bay. The Mississippi delta records ≈20%, northwest Europe records ≈70% and Asia records ≈105% of the globally averaged amount. The cooling of the 8.2 kiloyear event was a temporary feature; however, the sea-level rise of the meltwater pulse was permanent."

&

Roblyn A. Kendall, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Glenn A. Milne, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist & Yongxiang Li (2008), "The sea-level fingerprint of the 8.2 ka climate event", Geology.

http://www.tulane.edu/~tor/documents/Geology2008.pdf

Abstract: "The 8.2 ka cooling event was an abrupt, widespread climate instability. There is general consensus that the episode was likely initiated by a catastrophic outflow of proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway through the Hudson Strait, with subsequent disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, the total discharge and flux during the 8.2 ka event remain uncertain. We compute the sea-level signature, or “fingerprint,” associated with the drainage of Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, as well as the expected sea-level signal over the same time period due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to the Late Pleistocene deglaciation. Our analysis demonstrates that sites relatively close to the lakes, including the West and Gulf Coasts of the United States, have small signals due to the lake release and potentially large GIA signals, and thus they may not be optimal field sites for constraining the outflow volume. Other sites, such as the east coast of South America and western Africa, have significantly larger signals associated with the lake release and are thus better choices in this regard."

Edit: In case it is not clear to all readers, I provide the third attached image that compares SLR fingerprint effects for ice mass loss from the GIS (panel a) & the WAIS (panel b).  Thus an abrupt (say in one or two days) collapse of much of the ice in the BSB before 2060, not only would sea level rise in the NH but so would GMSTA and Arctic Amplification.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2017, 05:52:25 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #309 on: June 25, 2017, 02:55:41 PM »
In the Flint Michigan case state official have been charged with involuntary manslaughter due to their "depraved-indifference" to the risks that their actions were incurring to human life.  At some point (if we are not already past this point) the actions of government officials regarding climate change (think Team Trump) will meet the legal definition of "depraved-indifference" and then we can put these heartless officials into prison for very long terms:

"Michigan officials charged in Flint Legionnaires' outbreak"

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/14/health/flint-water-crisis-legionnaires-manslaughter-charges/

Extract: "Several Michigan state officials, including some who reported to Gov. Rick Snyder, have been charged with involuntary manslaughter in connection with a Legionnaires' outbreak that killed 12 people during the Flint water crisis, the Michigan attorney general's office said Wednesday.

"That arrogance that people would want to sweep this away and that there are nameless, faceless bureaucrats who caused this and no one responsible is outrageous," he said adding that this is proof the system is working."

See also the linked Wikipedia article entitled: "Depraved-heart murder"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depraved-heart_murder

Extract: "In United States law, depraved-heart murder, also known as depraved-indifference murder, is an action where a defendant acts with a "depraved indifference" to human life and where such act results in a death. In a depraved-heart murder, defendants commit an act even though they know their act runs an unusually high risk of causing death or serious bodily harm to a person. If the risk of death or bodily harm is great enough, ignoring it demonstrates a "depraved indifference" to human life and the resulting death is considered to have been committed with malice aforethought."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #310 on: July 06, 2017, 06:03:27 PM »
Andre has previously posted the following reference in both the Consequences & the Science folders, but I think that it also belongs here, as this research implies that while policy makers are currently assuming that ECS is about 3C; in actuality it is likely closer to 4 to 4.5C; and if Hansen's ice-climate feedback is correct then it may be closer to 6C before the end of this century (assuming we stay on a BAU pathway for 10 to 20 more years), due to the accumulation of heat in the Pacific, and Southern, Oceans since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Cristian Proistosescu and Peter J. Huybers (05 Jul 2017), "Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity", Science Advances, Vol. 3, no. 7, e1602821, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1602821

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821

Extract: "The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report widened the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) range from 2° to 4.5°C to an updated range of 1.5° to 4.5°C in order to account for the lack of consensus between estimates based on models and historical observations. The historical ECS estimates range from 1.5° to 3°C and are derived assuming a linear radiative response to warming. A Bayesian methodology applied to 24 models, however, documents curvature in the radiative response to warming from an evolving contribution of interannual to centennial modes of radiative response. Centennial modes display stronger amplifying feedbacks and ultimately contribute 28 to 68% (90% credible interval) of equilibrium warming, yet they comprise only 1 to 7% of current warming. Accounting for these unresolved centennial contributions brings historical records into agreement with model-derived ECS estimates."

See also the linked article entitled: "Why the climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than weather records suggest"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-climate-sensitive-carbon-dioxide-weather.html

Extract: "According to their statistical analysis, historical weather observations reveal only a portion of the planet's full response to rising CO₂ levels. The true climate sensitivity will only become manifest on a time scale of centuries, due to effects that researchers call "slow climate feedbacks".

To understand this, it is important to know precisely what we mean when we talk about climate sensitivity. So-called "equilibrium climate sensitivity", or slow climate feedbacks, refers to the ultimate consequence of climate response – in other words, the final effects and environmental consequences that a given greenhouse gas concentration will deliver.

These can include long-term climate feedback processes such as ice sheet disintegration with consequent changes in Earth's surface reflection (albedo), changes to vegetation patterns, and the release of greenhouse gases such as methane from soils, tundra or ocean sediments. These processes can take place on time scales of centuries or more. As such they can only be predicted using climate models based on prehistoric data and paleoclimate evidence.

On the other hand, when greenhouse gas forcing rises at a rate as high as 2–3 parts per million (ppm) of CO₂ per year, as is the case during the past decade or so, the rate of slow feedback processes may be accelerated.

Measurements of atmosphere and marine changes made since the Industrial Revolution (when humans first began the mass release of greenhouse gases) capture mainly the direct warming effects of CO₂, as well as short-term feedbacks such as changes to water vapour and clouds.
A study led by climatologist James Hansen concluded that climate sensitivity is about 3℃ for a doubling of CO₂ when considering only short-term feedbacks. However, it's potentially as high as 6℃ when considering a final equilibrium involving much of the West and East Antarctic ice melting, if and when global greenhouse levels transcend the 500-700ppm CO₂ range."

Edit: Panel A of the attached image has the slow feedback mode.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2017, 06:41:53 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #311 on: July 11, 2017, 04:54:13 PM »
The linked reference presents research confirming that we indeed have entered an era of the ongoing anthropogenically driven Sixth Mass Extinction; and hopefully, I do not need to comment on the human mental illness associated with this calamity:

Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich, and Rodolfo Dirzo (2017), "Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines", PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1704949114

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/07/05/1704949114

Significance: "The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in vertebrates, even in common “species of low concern.” Dwindling population sizes and range shrinkages amount to a massive anthropogenic erosion of biodiversity and of the ecosystem services essential to civilization. This “biological annihilation” underlines the seriousness for humanity of Earth’s ongoing sixth mass extinction event."

Abstract: "The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth’s sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #312 on: July 14, 2017, 05:52:37 PM »
The linked reference cites findings from an improved version of CESM that increases ESC from 4.1C to 5.6C.  If this is actually experienced this coming century, this is bad news for both people & the current biota:

William R. Frey & Jennifer E. Kay (2017), "The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity", Climate Dynamics; pp 1–20, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3796-5

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3796-5?utm_content=bufferfdbc0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes."
« Last Edit: August 26, 2017, 08:06:19 PM by AbruptSLR »
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« Reply #313 on: August 01, 2017, 05:40:15 PM »
When most people think of the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis they think of the Arctic marine hydrate Kraken (possibly associated with a projected pulse of relatively warm North Atlantic water into the Arctic Basin, circa 2035 to 2040, see the first three images).  Therefore, I propose here to call the marine hydrate Clathrate Gun mechanism associated with the likely collapse of the WAIS (see Reply #159), the Baba Yaga (Russian for boogeyman) mechanism, in honor of the movie "John Wick" aka Baba Yaga (a professional killer played by Keanu Reeves, see the 4th image).  Pleasant dreams.

See also:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogeyman
&
http://monsterlore.weebly.com/baba-yaga-the-russian-boogeyman.html

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« Reply #314 on: August 01, 2017, 06:07:45 PM »
As a follow-up to my last post (about as possible coming series of both Kraken & Baba Yaga events this century), I provide the following linked 2008 reference.

Kieran D. O'Hara (25 January 2008), "A model for late Quaternary methane ice core signals: Wetlands versus a shallow marine source", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2007GL032317

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL032317/abstract;jsessionid=2A39482FA5ADB8E882067169E1F82526.f04t01

Abstract: "A three-reservoir model with first order kinetics for methane records in the Vostok (Antarctica) and GISP2 (Greenland) ice cores reproduces the sawtooth pattern and the maximum and minimum concentrations. The model also returns an atmospheric methane relaxation time of ∼10 years for both cores, which is the same as current estimates. The characteristics of the source reservoirs are long relaxation times (33.3 and 100 ky) and high initial methane concentrations (2500 and 7000 ppm) for GISP2 and Vostok, respectively. These characteristics are consistent with gas hydrate sources in shallow marine sediments, but not with wetland sources which have insufficient storage capacity and low source strength."

Also, see the associated 2008 article entitled: "Possible Origin of Methane in Ice Core Records"; which concludes that the methane in both Antarctic and Greenland ice cores for the Late Quaternary period (0.5-1.0 million years ago) is likely associated with methane emitted from marine hydrates

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080217093816.htm


Also, with regards to the linked July 31 2017 article entitled: "Methane-eating microbes may reduce release of gases as Antarctic ice sheets melt", I note that its 'happy talk' conclusions are predicted on the assumption that the WAIS melts relatively slowly; while the Storegga submarine landslide (see the first attached image) demonstrates that if an abrupt collapse of the WAIS were to trigger Clathrate Gun-type submarine landslides, then the associate methane release would happen much too quickly for methane-eating microbes to have any meaningful impact on the amount of methane released (as may have been the case for the Late Quaternary Vostok ice core, which the second image indicates includes the Holsteinian, MIS 11c, period; which had a particularly high effective climate sensitivity, as discussed in Replies #267 & 268):

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-methane-eating-microbes-gases-antarctic-ice.html

Extract: "These tiny microorganisms may have a big impact on a warming world by preventing methane from seeping into the atmosphere when ice sheets melt, said Brent Christner, a University of Florida microbiologist and co-author on the study."
« Last Edit: August 01, 2017, 06:38:10 PM by AbruptSLR »
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« Reply #315 on: August 02, 2017, 03:51:31 PM »
As in any Baba Yaga (Boogieman) story (scenario) the Devil is in the detail, and so it is with the potential abrupt release of methane from marine hydrates beneath the WAIS (of which roughly ½ of its bed area has sediment suitable for containing hydrates).  In this regards, I provide the first two attached images that show:

(1) The elevation of the ice in the WAIS above sea level that if released abruptly by cliff failures could destabilize marine hydrate by abrupt depressurization, that could lead to a series of underwater landslides on the negative slope of the seafloor as the ground line progressively retreats;

(2) Sea passages way that could be progressively opened to allow relatively warm circumpolar deep water to circulate in the newly exposed West Antarctic seafloor, which could destabilized marine hydrates with heat.

(3) The potentially hundreds of meter of seafloor rebound that would both raise up and destabilize the geotechnical marine deposits, thus causing local destabilization areas.

The third image shows the depth to the MOHO beneath the West Antarctic indicating that large zones in this area have little or no lithosphere, which cause both high geothermal heat flux into the marine hydrates and also promotes both seismic and volcanic activity (with abrupt loss of ice) that could further destabilize the hydrates.

Lastly for this post, I note that the bottom zone of the marine ice sheet itself likely has insitu methane hydrates that could be abruptly transported to the atmosphere if/when the calved icebergs roll.
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« Reply #316 on: August 03, 2017, 05:01:03 PM »
To continue my Baba Yaga story, I note that once the WAIS starts to collapse, geoengineering will not be able to stop it, and if I am correct the WAIS may start to collapse circa 2040.  Thus as BECCS is not economically/technically practicable; I suspect that governments will find the use of geoengineering irresistible circa 2040 to 2060.  Therefore, I provide a link to the referenced research of the first climate model examination of 'cocktail geoengineering' using a combination of: "… stratospheric sulfate aerosol increase (SAI) that deflects sunlight to space and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) that enables more longwave radiation to escape to space."  The study finds that combining both SAI & CCT can restore both GMSTA and total global precipitation back to pre-industrial levels, it finds that the regional patterns would be substantially different.  Thus, I would not be surprised that the DOE will authorize an ACME Phase II in 2018 that includes modeling capabilities to study such 'cocktail geoengineering' proposal in greater detail.  That said, I am concerned that any such studies will not consider methane hydrate emission from the WAIS, nor Hansen's ice-climate feedback from a potential collapse of the WAIS this century; which would like mean that any implementation of such 'cocktail geoengineering' plans would be misguided, and potential worse than if they had not been implemented:

Long Cao, Lei Duan, Govindasamy Bala & Ken Caldeira (2017), "Simultaneous stabilization of global temperature and precipitation through cocktail geoengineering", Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074281

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074281/abstract;jsessionid=CD4EEF992F073831F2A191EFA5491888.f03t02

Abstract: "Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a backup plan to offset some aspects of anthropogenic climate change if timely CO2 emission reductions fail to materialize. Modeling studies have shown that there are trade-offs between changes in temperature and hydrological cycle in response to solar geoengineering. Here we investigate the possibility of stabilizing both global mean temperature and precipitation simultaneously by combining two geoengineering approaches: stratospheric sulfate aerosol increase (SAI) that deflects sunlight to space and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) that enables more longwave radiation to escape to space. Using the slab ocean configuration of National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, we simulate SAI by uniformly adding sulfate aerosol in the upper stratosphere and CCT by uniformly increasing cirrus cloud ice particle falling speed. Under an idealized warming scenario of abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, we show that by combining appropriate amounts of SAI and CCT geoengineering, global mean (or land mean) temperature and precipitation can be restored simultaneously to preindustrial levels. However, compared to SAI, cocktail geoengineering by mixing SAI and CCT does not markedly improve the overall similarity between geoengineered climate and preindustrial climate on regional scales. Some optimal spatially nonuniform mixture of SAI with CCT might have the potential to better mitigate climate change at both the global and regional scales."

Plain Language Summary: "Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide cause increase in both global temperatures and precipitation. Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to counteract this climate change by deliberately deflecting more sunlight from the Earth's climate system. Numerous climate modeling studies have shown that proposed solar geoengineering schemes, such as injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, can cool climate, but the amount of precipitation change per degree of temperature change is greater than that for CO2, meaning that such proposals cannot simultaneously globally restore both average temperatures and average precipitation. It has also been suggested that the Earth could be cooled by thinning cirrus clouds, but the amount of precipitation change per degree of temperature change for this method is less than that for CO2. Our climate modeling study shows, for the first time, that a cocktail of these two approaches would decrease precipitation and temperature in the same ratios as they are increased by CO2, which would allow simultaneous recovery of preindustrial temperature and precipitation in a high CO2 world at global scale. We show that although the average temperatures and precipitation can be recovered at global scale, substantial differences between the geoengineered and natural climates persist at regional scale."

See also: "Could 'cocktail geoengineering' save the climate?"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-cocktail-geoengineering-climate.html

Extract: "The team—which includes Carnegie's Ken Caldeira, Long Cao and Lei Duan of Zhejiang University, and Govindasamy Bala of the Indian Institute of Science—used models to simulate what would happen if sunlight were scattered by particles at the same time as the cirrus clouds were thinned. They wanted to understand how effective this combined set of tools would be at reversing climate change, both globally and regionally.

The good news is that their simulations showed that if both methods are deployed in concert, it would decrease warming to pre-industrial levels, as desired, and on a global level rainfall would also stay at pre-industrial levels. But the bad news is that while global average climate was largely restored, substantial differences remained locally, with some areas getting much wetter and other areas getting much drier."
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #317 on: August 06, 2017, 12:54:54 AM »
The linked video suggests that Machiavellian thinking can result from having been traumatized.  If so then to progressively work our collective way out of societal mental illness, we need help people deal better with trauma:

Title: “Niccolò Machiavelli (BBC Documentary)”



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« Reply #318 on: August 07, 2017, 08:51:35 PM »
The linked reference determines the paleoclimate sensitivity during the Middle Eocene at a latitude of 64 degrees 48 minutes in Canada (see the first image), and finds a regional climate sensitivity of about 13C.  The second image illustrates that these findings indicate exceptionally high values of Arctic Amplification during this period as the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were found to be only about 490 ppm.  While the mean global surface temperature was warmer during the Middle Eocene than today, we are warming at a much faster rate and C02e is already above 530 ppm.  This does not bode well for our collective future:

Alexander P. Wolfe, Alberto V. Reyes, Dana L. Royer, David R. Greenwood, Gabriela Doria, Mary H. Gagen, Peter A. Siver and John A. Westgate (May 2017), "Middle Eocene CO2 and climate reconstructed from the sediment fill of a subarctic kimberlite maar", GEOLOGY, July 2017; v. 45; no. 7; p. 619–622, doi:10.1130/G39002.1


https://gsw.silverchair-cdn.com/gsw/Content_public/Journal/geology/45/7/10.1130_G39002.1/1/619.pdf?Expires=1502222555&Signature=bqBU8Y3KgwV619Rh98~HEPqPp~aWdJ3w9x893T75q0T5Bn70XB~7Xvjub8K7QrFGN5OhK1RYvai3Aw5yfCYLSjKnKMt7KIMCoZnbo8drd9wtDSqrfEqLJJYFd6X7WWR~nBW9BCmhI0t2QOV2QqS7xkvQPDLc~saDe8e9-V8rrwXRI~WR-KsTvbGe2wz~XUmEU3c-lt~TD1TLajAj4Cb5EVeLNGjtF~0pt2fdKtvHMbl8C9~r5TimyGysbu5vExwPrbZvpLvfjxzipB-l5fiD7QH9qCslsthuwWOPIGGCUquL0tI6lMHQZXugcX5ix1ge4Uj7Ed6RQVvB07liZCi7mA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIUCZBIA4LVPAVW3Q
&
http://www.geosociety.org/datarepository/2017/2017202.pdf

Abstract: "Eocene paleoclimate reconstructions are rarely accompanied by parallel estimates of CO2 from the same locality, complicating assessment of the equilibrium climate response to elevated CO2. We reconstruct temperature, precipitation, and CO2 from latest middle Eocene (ca. 38 Ma) terrestrial sediments in the post eruptive sediment fill of the Giraffe kimberlite in subarctic Canada. Mutual climatic range and oxygen isotope analyses of botanical fossils reveal a humid temperate forest ecosystem with mean annual temperatures (MATs) more than 17 °C warmer than present and mean annual precipitation ~4× present. Metasequoia stomatal indices and gas-exchange modeling produce median CO2 concentrations of ~630 and ~430 ppm, respectively, with a combined median estimate of ~490 ppm. Reconstructed MATs are more than 6 °C warmer than those produced by Eocene climate models forced at 560 ppm CO2. Estimates of regional climate sensitivity, expressed as ΔMAT per CO2 doubling above preindustrial levels, converge on a value of ~13 °C, underscoring the capacity for exceptional polar amplification of warming and hydrological intensification under modest CO2 concentrations once both fast and slow feedbacks become expressed."
« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 05:49:13 PM by AbruptSLR »
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« Reply #319 on: August 09, 2017, 07:13:08 PM »
The first image of Figure 5 from the linked reference (Lunt et al 2017) indicates that the PMIP4 may well be erring on the side of least drama w.r.t. to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in the Middle Eocene (circa 35 to 39 mya) as compared to the findings of Wolfe et al 2017 (see Reply #318).

Daniel J. Lunt et. al. (2017), "The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)", Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017

https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/889/2017/gmd-10-889-2017.pdf

Abstract. Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( >800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (~50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4xCO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

Edit: See also Reply #256 for a discussion of atmospheric CO2 levels during the Early Eocene.

Edit 2: I provide the second image from Reply #256 for ease of reference.

Edit 3: Also for ease of reference, if one assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 35, then the CO2-equiv at the end of 2016 was approximately 521 ppm.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 09:45:46 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #320 on: August 12, 2017, 06:40:10 PM »
While Proistosescu & Huybers (2017) has been cited previously (see Reply #310), I nevertheless provide the linked associated Harvard Gazette article: entitled: "Reconciling predictions of climate change".  Further, I provide the attached image of a panel of the first supplemental figure from Proistosescu & Huybers (2017) that at for at least the climate model HadGEM2-ES the posterior pdf for the near future ECS has a median value of 6C with right-tailed values in the range of 8C.  While it is very difficult to say at the moment what model projections are correct, I provide the following general comments:

1. PMIP4 (see Reply #319) is currently providing input into CMIP6 that err on the side of least drama.

2. The vast majority of climate models have trouble matching the observed relatively high Arctic Amplification values from paleo periods that are a little bit warmer than today (e.g. see Reply #318).

3.  The world is currently warming at a rate that is several time faster than during the PETM.

4.  The 100-year CO₂-eq value at the end of 2016 was about 521ppm which is already at Eocene levels.

Therefore, the 'fatness' of the right-tail of the ECS pdf may well be much fatter than most scientists (particularly those that contributed to AR5) assume:

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/07/conflicting-estimates-of-rise-in-global-temperature-resolved/

Extract: "“The historical pattern of warming is that most of the warming has occurred over land, in particular over the northern hemisphere,” said Cristian Proistosescu, Ph.D ’17, the first author of the paper. “This pattern of warming is known as the fast mode — you put CO2 in the atmosphere and very quickly after that, the land in the northern hemisphere is going to warm.”

But there is also a slow mode of warming, which can take centuries to realize. That warming, which is most associated with the Southern Ocean and the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, comes with positive feedback loops that amplify the process. For example, as the oceans warm, cloud cover decreases, and a white reflecting surface is replaced with a dark absorbent surface.

The researchers developed a mathematical model to parse the two modes within different climate models.

“The models simulate a warming pattern like today’s, but indicate that strong feedbacks kick in when the Southern Ocean and Eastern Equatorial Pacific eventually warm, leading to higher overall temperatures than would simply be extrapolated from the warming seen to date,” said Peter Huybers, professor of Earth and planetary sciences in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science, and of environmental science and engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), the co-author of the paper.

Huybers and Proistosescu found that while the slow mode of warming contributes a great deal to the ultimate amount of global warming, it is barely present in present-day warming patterns. “Historical observations give us a lot of insight into how climate changes and are an important test of our climate models,” said Huybers, “but there is no perfect analogue for the changes that are coming.”"


See also:
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821
&
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cproist/pubs/ProistosescuHuybers2017SciAdv_ReconcilingSensitivity_SM.pdf
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #321 on: August 12, 2017, 07:15:06 PM »
The linked reference indicates that when the AMO is in a positive phase (as it recently has been per the attached associated image) the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal.  However, as the AMO is projected to be just now entering a negative phase, this research would indicate that for the next two, or more, decades we can expect the tropical Pacific Ocean to be warmer than normal (i.e. that El Nino events will be more frequent and more intense); which indicates that for this period the GMSTA may well be above its average trend line:

KEWEI LYU, JIN-YI YU, AND HOUK PAEK (2017), "The Influences of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Mean Strength of the North Pacific Subtropical High during Boreal Winter", Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0525.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0525.1
&
https://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Lyu-Yu-Paek.JCLI.2017.pdf

Abstract: "The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has been shown to be capable of exerting significant influences on the Pacific climate. In this study, the authors analyze reanalysis datasets and conduct forced and coupled experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to explain why the winter North Pacific subtropical high strengthens and expands northwestward during the positive phase of the AMO. The results show that the tropical Atlantic warming associated with the positive AMO phase leads to a westward displacement of the Pacific Walker circulation and a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, thereby inducing anomalous descending motion over the central tropical Pacific. The descending motion then excites a stationary Rossby wave pattern that extends northward to produce a nearly barotropic anticyclone over the North Pacific. A diagnosis based on the quasigeostrophic vertical velocity equation reveals that the stationary wave pattern also results in enhanced subsidence over the northeastern Pacific via the anomalous advections of vorticity and temperature. The anomalous barotropic anticyclone and the enhanced subsidence are the two mechanisms that increase the sea level pressure over the North Pacific. The latter mechanism occurs to the southeast of the former one and thus is more influential in the subtropical high region. Both mechanisms can be produced in forced and coupled AGCMs but are displaced northward as a result of stationary wave patterns that differ from those observed. This explains why the model-simulated North Pacific sea level pressure responses to the AMO tend to be biased northward."
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #322 on: August 12, 2017, 08:49:29 PM »
"The 100-year CO₂-eq value at the end of 2016 was about 521ppm which is already at Eocene levels."

Is this somewhere in one of the links you provided, or is there another source for it that you might kindly point me to.

Thanks ahead of time, for this and all the great work you do here.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #323 on: August 12, 2017, 11:05:11 PM »
"The 100-year CO₂-eq value at the end of 2016 was about 521ppm which is already at Eocene levels."

Is this somewhere in one of the links you provided, or is there another source for it that you might kindly point me to.

Thanks ahead of time, for this and all the great work you do here.

wili,
In Reply #301, I show how when I replace NOAA's GWP100 value of 25 for methane with the actual value of 35, I get a CO2-eq value of 521 ppm at the end of 2016.

In Reply #318, I provide a solid reference that determined a median value of atmospheric CO2 concentration during the Middle Eocene of about 490 ppm.

Best regards,
ASLR
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #324 on: August 12, 2017, 11:58:13 PM »
Thanks for the reminder, aslr
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #325 on: August 13, 2017, 12:43:29 AM »
Thanks for the reminder, aslr

wili,

My pleasure.  However, I note that even this information likely underestimates the seriousness of our current situation for reasons including:

1. The ocean has been absorbing roughly 90% of anthropogenically driven heating since about 1750; which due to the thermal inertia of the ocean, is only now resulting in slow response feedback mechanisms such as: (a) warming of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean & acceleration of the frequency of strong El Nino events and (b) warming of the Southern Ocean and the associated beginning of the activation of Hansen's ice-climate feedback mechanism.

2. If/when continued increase of atmospheric methane concentrations occur, then it is likely that one should use methane's GWP20 value of 105 instead of its GWP100 value of 35, when calculating radiative forcing.

3.  Many masking factors (such as aerosol emissions from China) will likely be eliminated within the next decade, or so, which should accelerate global warming to higher rates than we have yet seen.

4. Continued acidification of the oceans and recent disruptions to the tropical rainforests, will likely reduce the rate of CO2 absorption associated with these two carbon sinks.

5. The current rates of increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing are several times that which occurred during the PETM, so the current effective value of ECS (for the rest of this century) may well be higher than that observed during the Eocene.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #326 on: August 13, 2017, 01:27:08 AM »
Thanks again.

I tend to agree.

The other thing about the ocean CO2 sink is that as the surface warms, CO2 will less easily dissolve in the water. And old, CO2-rich waters are already making their way back to the surface, iirc.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #327 on: August 13, 2017, 12:31:17 PM »
Thanks again.

I tend to agree.

The other thing about the ocean CO2 sink is that as the surface warms, CO2 will less easily dissolve in the water. And old, CO2-rich waters are already making their way back to the surface, iirc.

Also:
1. A certain portion of the permafrost is already committed to degrade and emit both CO2 & CH4;
2. The rainforests contain at least three times the amount of peat than AR5 assumes, which will serve as an active source of both CO2 & CH4 due to the committed degradation of the rainforests around the world;
3. Finally, I provide two articles that indicate that AR5 models underestimate the amount of CO2 ventilation (from upwelling) that we are already committed to:

The first reference indicates that current climate models do not adequately account for all of the mechanisms for ocean ventilation in the high-latitude oceans.

Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Graeme A.  MacGilchrist, Peter J. Brown, D. Gwyn Evans, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Jan D. Zika (7 August 2017), "High-latitude ocean ventilation and its role in Earth's climate transitions", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0324

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/375/2102/20160324?utm_content=buffer039b9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The processes regulating ocean ventilation at high latitudes are re-examined based on a range of observations spanning all scales of ocean circulation, from the centimetre scales of turbulence to the basin scales of gyres. It is argued that high-latitude ocean ventilation is controlled by mechanisms that differ in fundamental ways from those that set the overturning circulation. This is contrary to the assumption of broad equivalence between the two that is commonly adopted in interpreting the role of the high-latitude oceans in Earth's climate transitions. Illustrations of how recognizing this distinction may change our view of the ocean's role in the climate system are offered.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world’."

The second reference indicates that deep convection mechanisms can develop in the Arctic Ocean with continued anthropogenic global warming; which would increase ocean ventilation:

Lique, C., Johnson, H.L. & Plancherel, Y. (2017), "Emergence of deep convection in the Arctic Ocean under a warming climate", Clim Dyn, DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382

https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3849-9?utm_content=buffer841ba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The appearance of winter deep mixed layers in the Arctic Ocean under a warming climate is investigated with the HiGEM coupled global climate model. In response to a four times increase of atmospheric CO 2 levels with respect to present day conditions, the Arctic Basin becomes seasonally ice-free. Its surface becomes consequently warmer and, on average, slightly fresher. Locally, changes in surface salinity can be far larger (up to 4 psu) than the basin-scale average, and of a different sign. The Canadian Basin undergoes a strong freshening, while the Eurasian Basin undergoes strong salinification. These changes are driven by the spin up of the surface circulation, likely resulting from the increased transfer of momentum to the ocean as sea ice cover is reduced. Changes in the surface salinity field also result in a change in stratification, which is strongly enhanced in the Canadian Basin and reduced in the Eurasian Basin. Reduction, or even suppression, of the stratification in the Eurasian Basin produces an environment that is favourable for, and promotes the appearance of, deep convection near the sea ice edge, leading to a significant deepening of winter mixed layers in this region (down to 1000 m). As the Arctic Ocean is transitioning toward a summer ice-free regime, new dynamical ocean processes will appear in the region, with potentially important consequences for the Arctic Ocean itself and for climate, both locally and on larger scales."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #328 on: August 18, 2017, 05:43:38 PM »
The linked reference is not all bad news, as it points out that per their 1D models the Arctic continental shelf methane hydrate stability zone (HSZ) can take ~ 10 to 20 kyrs to respond to changes in initial temperature conditions associated with the end of the last ice age.  However, while it is pleasant to think of middle of the 10 to 20 kya range, as the attached image indicates the Holocene began about 11 kya and thus we should now start to see portions of the HSZ becoming unstable due to the global temperature increase leading to the beginning of the Holocene.  This emphasizes that modelers need to get their initial conditions correct:

Valentina V. Malakhova & Alexey V. Eliseev (2017), "The role of heat transfer time scale in the evolution of the subsea permafrost and associated methane hydrates stability zone during glacial cycles", Global and Planetary Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.08.007

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818117301273

Abstract: "Climate warming may lead to degradation of the subsea permafrost developed during Pleistocene glaciations and release methane from the hydrates, which are stored in this permafrost. It is important to quantify time scales at which this release is plausible. While, in principle, such time scale might be inferred from paleoarchives, this is hampered by considerable uncertainty associated with paleodata. In the present paper, to reduce such uncertainty, one–dimensional simulations with a model for thermal state of subsea sediments forced by the data obtained from the ice core reconstructions are performed. It is shown that heat propagates in the sediments with a time scale of ∼ 10-20 kyr. This time scale is longer than the present interglacial and is determined by the time needed for heat penetration in the unfrozen part of thick sediments. We highlight also that timings of shelf exposure during oceanic regressions and flooding during transgressions are important for simulating thermal state of the sediments and methane hydrates stability zone (HSZ). These timings should be resolved with respect to the contemporary shelf depth (SD). During glacial cycles, the temperature at the top of the sediments is a major driver for moving the HSZ vertical boundaries irrespective of SD. In turn, pressure due to oceanic water is additionally important for SD ≥ 50 m. Thus, oceanic transgressions and regressions do not instantly determine onset s of HSZ and/or its disappearance. Finally, impact of initial conditions in the subsea sediments is lost after ∼ 100 kyr. Our results are moderately sensitive to intensity of geothermal heat flux."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #329 on: August 18, 2017, 11:13:16 PM »
The following reference indicates that the Bering Land Bridge (and by extension the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, which is at the same approximate elevation); flooded rapidly about 11 kya; which taken together with my last post would indicate that methane hydrates in these area could now be experiencing the destabilizing thermal pulse associated with this flooding event:

Jakobsson, M., Pearce, C., Cronin, T. M., Backman, J., Anderson, L. G., Barrientos, N., Björk, G., Coxall, H., de Boer, A., Mayer, L. A., Mörth, C.-M., Nilsson, J., Rattray, J. E., Stranne, C., Semiletov, I., and O'Regan, M.: Post-glacial flooding of the Bering Land Bridge dated to 11 cal ka BP based on new geophysical and sediment records, Clim. Past, 13, 991-1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-991-2017, 2017.

https://www.clim-past.net/13/991/2017/

Abstract. The Bering Strait connects the Arctic and Pacific oceans and separates the North American and Asian landmasses. The presently shallow ( ∼  53 m) strait was exposed during the sea level lowstand of the last glacial period, which permitted human migration across a land bridge today referred to as the Bering Land Bridge. Proxy studies (stable isotope composition of foraminifera, whale migration into the Arctic Ocean, mollusc and insect fossils and paleobotanical data) have suggested a range of ages for the Bering Strait reopening, mainly falling within the Younger Dryas stadial (12.9–11.7 cal ka BP). Here we provide new information on the deglacial and post-glacial evolution of the Arctic–Pacific connection through the Bering Strait based on analyses of geological and geophysical data from Herald Canyon, located north of the Bering Strait on the Chukchi Sea shelf region in the western Arctic Ocean. Our results suggest an initial opening at about 11 cal ka BP in the earliest Holocene, which is later than in several previous studies. Our key evidence is based on a well-dated core from Herald Canyon, in which a shift from a near-shore environment to a Pacific-influenced open marine setting at around 11 cal ka BP is observed. The shift corresponds to meltwater pulse 1b (MWP1b) and is interpreted to signify relatively rapid breaching of the Bering Strait and the submergence of the large Bering Land Bridge. Although the precise rates of sea level rise cannot be quantified, our new results suggest that the late deglacial sea level rise was rapid and occurred after the end of the Younger Dryas stadial.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #330 on: August 18, 2017, 11:27:47 PM »
The linked reference runs two modeled radiative forcing scenarios for the Eocene, one driven by high atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and one driven by reduced cloud albedo (and moderate CO₂ concentrations).  "The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference …" but different regional signatures that could be checked using both local paleodata and/or other models run with same forcing scenarios.  It goes without saying that the reduced cloud albedo scenario indicates higher climate sensitivity, and also closely matches the paleodata findings of moderate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the Eocene cited in Replies #256 & 318:

Carlson, H. and Caballero, R.: Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene, Clim. Past, 13, 1037-1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1037-2017, 2017.

https://www.clim-past.net/13/1037/2017/

Abstract. Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Edit, I provide the two attached images showing the Global Temperature for the past 500 million years and the past 5 million years, respectively; and I note that while the Panama Isthmus closed about 5 million years ago (which changes the dynamics of the paleo-ENSO cycle); nevertheless I believe that the near-future ENSO cycle is relatively susceptible to amplification via chaos theory's climate attractors.

Edit 2, for comparison I provide the third image from Foster et. al. (2017) doi: 10.1038/ncomms14845 , indicating possible future scenarios.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2017, 12:35:03 AM by AbruptSLR »
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #331 on: August 21, 2017, 01:06:33 AM »
I am now 71 years old.  During my lifetime I have met with people who sincerely believe in various absolutely bunk ideas.  Generally speaking, I think that many people have a problem understanding the invisible forces at work in the physical universe and at work in human society.  Ancient civilisations believed that gods interfered in human affairs.  People these days are far too smart to believe that bunkum - gods phooey - it's really the illuminarty-farty.

If any of you want, or have the time, to dig into what makes conspiracy theorists tick, here are two good reads.

Measuring belief in conspiracy theories.
Anthony Lantian,Dominique Muller,Cécile Nurra,Karen M. Douglas

An antidote to the conspiracy theory that the govmint has piles of money which you can use to pay your debts.
Meads v Meads Canadian Legal Information Institute

In a very long judgement, J.D. Rooke, who must have the patience of a saint, explains once and for all time why these various get out of jail / debt free schemes are total hogwash.

These two are long reads, but if you are into psychology and have a goodly supply of your favourite beverage and popcorn ...  ;D
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #332 on: August 21, 2017, 11:51:12 AM »
The linked MAHB website offers numerous & multi-disciplinary articles regarding the reality of the challenges that mankind and the biosphere are currently facing in the Anthropocene.  In this regards, I also provide a link to the MAHB archive on extinction as well as three links to the most recent articles on the website, including to one entitled "When optimism spells disaster…", that emphasizes that the cure to human stupidity is wisdom:

The Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere: connecting activists, scientists, humanists and civil society to foster global change.

https://mahb.stanford.edu/

https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-category/extinction/

Title: "When optimism spells disaster…"

https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/optimism/

Extract: "One of the most dangerous threats to the human future in this, the Age of Perils, is … optimism.

Nowadays, if you tell the tested truth about climate science, weapons of mass destruction, global pollution, extinction or, indeed, any of the ten existential threats now closing in on humanity, you are likely to provoke one of two responses.

The first is a sober “Shit. I never knew it was that bad. What’s the evidence?” followed by “What can we do about it?”

The second ranges from polite dismissal to “I don’t want to hear all that bad news”, to outright, hysterical abuse, in which you are labelled everything from a “doomsayer” and a “Malthusian” to a spreader of lies, a “greenie nutcase” or even a socialist, a Marxist or a contemptible liberal!

Human society neatly divides into folk who can handle bad news – and those who can’t. Those who put their hands over their ears and demand you shut up. Or, as Charles Darwin might have observed, those who are fit for survival – and those who ain’t.

Optimism can be a useful attribute in a general, a politician or a business manager, providing it is based on fact, not mere belief. It nurtures the resilience to endure tough times. But remaining stubbornly “optimistic” when the weight of evidence points to imminent dangers to civilization and maybe even our species is a formula for disaster, that spells inaction and, consequently, an increase in the scale of the risk. It decreases our fitness for survival. It is, in short, extremely unwise.

Many “optimists” insist that humans are so smart we will come up with technical solutions to all the leading threats we face (though how we can do this with nuclear weapons is a moot question). And it is true that technical solutions exist to most of them. However, this ignores the fact that many of our greatest institutions – governments, corporations, faiths – are unable or unwilling to take action until the threats become so vast as to be unstoppable. The technical solutions will not develop unless society sees a need for them.

In this case it is the blind optimists, rather than the realistic pessimists, who imperil our future.
..
To overcome them humanity doesn’t need optimism or pessimism. It needs to exercise a singular attribute that has stood us in good stead for over a million years: wisdom."


&

Title: "When and How Will Growth Cease?"

https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/when-how-growth-cease/

&

Title: "Contraceptual Art"
https://mahb.stanford.edu/creative-expressions/contraceptual-art/

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #333 on: August 22, 2017, 06:45:19 PM »
As our Anthropogenic forcing is a function of our likely future institutional systems, it is important to understand what our current socio-economic systems are currently experiencing, and in this regards I provide the following quote from a recent article written by Ray Dalio (head of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater).  As the subtext of the article is that we appear currently to be headed down a path of the breakdown of democracy and moving towards rightwing populists authoritarian rule (think Trump, Putin etc.); I provide the attached images of selected Darth Vader quotes:

Title: "While You Were Working - August 21"

http://www.smartbrief.co/original/2017/08/while-you-were-working-august-21

Extract: “History has shown that democracies are healthy when the principles that bind people are stronger than those that divide them, when the rule of law governs disputes, and when compromises are made for the good of the whole—and that democracies are threatened when the principles that divide people are more strongly held than those that bind them and when divided people are more inclined to fight than work to resolve their differences. Conflicts have now intensified to the point that fighting to the death is probably more likely than reconciliation.”
« Last Edit: August 22, 2017, 07:08:49 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #334 on: August 30, 2017, 11:56:01 PM »
The total radiative forcings, RFs, from the linked ORNL website article by Blasing, T.J. (that updates such RF values reported in April 2016, see the attached table) are used in the linked Wikipedia article to calculate a CO2e value of 526.6ppm; which assuming the current rate of annual increase in CO2e of about 3.5ppm indicates that early in 2017 CO2e exceeded 530ppm:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_equivalent


Extract: "To calculate the CO2e of the additional radiative forcing calculated from April 2016's updated data: ∑ RF(GHGs) = 3.3793, thus CO2e = 280 e3.3793/5.35 ppmv = 526.6 ppmv."

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html


This relatively high value of 530ppm for CO2e appears to be associated with RF associated with tropospheric ozone and its chemical interaction in the atmosphere with GHGs like methane, as discussed in the following linked references.

Stevenson et al (2013), "Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP),"Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, doi:10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/9666974.pdf

Abstract. Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410mWm−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17 %. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10 %. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3 %. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12 %), nitrogen oxides (31±9 %), carbon monoxide (15±3 %) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9±2 %); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42mWm−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mWm−2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF."

See also:

https://tes.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/climateO3/

Extract: "Tropospheric O3 is also the source of the hydroxyl radical (OH), which controls the abundance and distribution of many atmospheric constituents (including greenhouse gases such as methane and hydrochlorofluorocarbons). Ozone makes a significant contribution to the radiative balance of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, such that changes in the distribution of O3 in these atmospheric regions affect the radiative forcing of climate.

Climate Feedback and Forcing for Tropospheric Ozone


Climate forcing by O3 remains uncertain because O3 change as a function of altitude has been under-measured. In order to better understand the role of tropospheric O3 in climate, accurate temperature measurements are needed along with co-located O3 and CO profiles."

Edit: To point out the obvious, the ACCMIP reference shows significant increases in ozone RF by 2030 following a BAU pathway.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 03:05:14 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #335 on: August 31, 2017, 04:16:55 AM »
Given my priors posts on the importance of natural VOCs and ozone; the linked reference discussing the critical importance of improving regulations on anthropogenic VOC should be fully appreciated (I hope, but I not have a lot of confidence that mankind will act accordingly):

Wu et al (2017), "Ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation potential from anthropogenic volatile organic compounds emissions in China", J Environ Sci (China); 53:224-237, doi: 10.1016/j.jes.2016.03.025

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/28372747/

Abstract: "Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are major precursors for ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA), both of which greatly harm human health and significantly affect the Earth's climate. We simultaneously estimated ozone and SOA formation from anthropogenic VOCs emissions in China by employing photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP) values and SOA yields. We gave special attention to large molecular species and adopted the SOA yield curves from latest smog chamber experiments. The estimation shows that alkylbenzenes are greatest contributors to both ozone and SOA formation (36.0% and 51.6%, respectively), while toluene and xylenes are largest contributing individual VOCs. Industry solvent use, industry process and domestic combustion are three sectors with the largest contributions to both ozone (24.7%, 23.0% and 17.8%, respectively) and SOA (22.9%, 34.6% and 19.6%, respectively) formation. In terms of the formation potential per unit VOCs emission, ozone is sensitive to open biomass burning, transportation, and domestic solvent use, and SOA is sensitive to industry process, domestic solvent use, and domestic combustion. Biomass stoves, paint application in industrial protection and buildings, adhesives application are key individual sources to ozone and SOA formation, whether measured by total contribution or contribution per unit VOCs emission. The results imply that current VOCs control policies should be extended to cover most important industrial sources, and the control measures for biomass stoves should be tightened. Finally, discrepant VOCs control policies should be implemented in different regions based on their ozone/aerosol concentration levels and dominant emission sources for ozone and SOA formation potential."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #336 on: September 02, 2017, 06:37:35 PM »
The linked Australian report discusses how a failure of political, bureaucratic and corporate leadership is increasing the risk of socio-economic collapse associated with coming climate change:

Title: DISASTER ALLEY: CLIMATE CHANGE, CONFLICT & RISK"

https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/disasteralley
&
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_8c0b021047fe406dbfa2851ea131a146.pdf

Extract: "The first responsibility of a government is to safeguard the people. But the accelerating impacts of climate change will drive increasingly severe humanitarian crises, political instability and conflict, posing large negative consequences to human society which may never be undone. The Asia–Pacific region is considered to be “Disaster Alley” where some of the worst impacts will be experienced. Australia’s political, bureaucratic and corporate leaders are abrogating their fiduciary responsibilities and are ill-prepared for the real risks of climate change.
 
In this striking new Breakthrough report we look at climate change and conflict issues through the lens of sensible risk-management to draw new conclusions about the challenge we now face."

See also the associate article entitled: "A failure of imagination on climate risks", by Ian Dunlop and David Spratt.

http://www.climatecodered.org/2017/07/a-failure-of-imagination-on-climate.html

Extract: " This is an extract from Disaster Alley: Climate change, conflict and risk published recently by Breakthrough.

Because the consequences are so severe — perhaps the end of human global civilisation as we know it — researchers say that “even for an honest, truth-seeking, and well-intentioned investigator it is difficult to think and act rationally in regard to… existential risks”.

Yet the evidence is clear that climate change already poses an existential risk to global economic and societal stability and to human civilisation that requires an emergency response. Temperature rises that are now in prospect could reduce the global human population by 80% or 90%. But this conversation is taboo, and the few who speak out are admonished as being overly alarmist.

Prof. Kevin Anderson considers that “a 4°C future [relative to pre-industrial levels] is incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems, and has a high probability of not being stable”. He says: “If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 4°C, 5°C or 6°C, you might have half a billion people surviving”. Asked at a 2011 conference in Melbourne about the difference between a 2°C world and a 4°C world, Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber replied in two words: “Human civilisation”.

The Paris climate agreement voluntary emission reduction commitments, if implemented, would result in the planet warming by 3°C, with a 50% chance of exceeding that amount.

This does not take into account “long-term” carbon-cycle feedbacks — such as permafrost thaw and declining efficiency of ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks, which are now becoming relevant. If these are considered, the Paris emissions path has more than a 50% chance of exceeding 4°C warming. (Technically, accounting for these feedbacks means using a higher figure for the system’s “climate sensitivity” — which is a measure of the temperature increase resulting from a doubling of the level of greenhouse gases — to calculate the warming. A median figure often used for climate sensitivity is ~3°C, but research from MIT shows that with a higher climate sensitivity figure of 4.5°C, which would account for feedbacks, the Paris path would lead to around 5°C of warming.)

Of course, the world hopes to do a great deal better than Paris, but it may do far worse. A recent survey of 656 participants involved in international climate policy-making showed only half considered the Paris climate negotiations were useful, and 70% did not expect that the majority of countries would fulfill their promises.

The Global Challenges Foundation (GCF) says that despite scientific evidence that risks associated with tipping points “increase disproportionately as temperature increases from 1°C to 2°C, and become high above 3°C”, political negotiations have consistently disregarded the high-end scenarios that could lead to abrupt or irreversible climate change. In its Global Catastrophic Risks 2017 report, it concludes that “the world is currently completely unprepared to envisage, and even less deal with, the consequences of catastrophic climate change”.

The scientific community has generally underestimated the likely rate of climate change impacts and costs. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports are years out of date upon publication. Sir Nicholas Stern wrote of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: “Essentially it reported on a body of literature that had systematically and grossly underestimated the risks [and costs] of unmanaged climate change”.

Too often, mitigation and adaptation policy is based on least-drama, consensus scientific projections that downplay what Prof. Ross Garnaut called the “bad possibilities”, that is, the lower-probability outcomes with higher impacts."

See also:

http://www.climatecodered.org/2017/01/antarctic-tipping-points-for-multi.html
&
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Code_Red
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― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #337 on: September 05, 2017, 12:05:06 AM »
As an example of dynamical response (discussed previously in this thread), I note that in the first linked research: "Severe testing is applied to observed global and regional surface and satellite temperatures and modelled surface temperatures to determine whether these interactions are independent, as in the traditional signal-to-noise model, or whether they interact, resulting in steplike warming."  The reference concludes that indeed steplike warming occurs due to "… a store-and-release mechanism from the ocean to the atmosphere…" like the classical Lorenzian attractor case of ENSO decadal cycles.  Such steplike behavior raises the issue of what I call "Ratcheting Quasi-static Equilibrium States" that can accelerate non-linear Earth Systems response beyond the linear Earth Systems response assumed by AR5/CMIP5 researchers.  As the authors point-out such AR5/CMIP5 researcher likely missed this behavior because: "This may be due in part to science asking the wrong questions."; and they advise that such AR5/CMIP5 researchers should change how they view the output from their models.  For example, the reference shows global warming increasing much faster for a steplike response if ECS is 4.5 than for a the traditional AR5/CMIP5 interpretation; which means that ESLD researchers are exposing society to far more risk of the consequences of high ECS values than AR5/CMIP5 are leading us to believe:

Jones, R. N. and Ricketts, J. H.: Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-35, in review, 2016.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-35/
&
http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-35/esd-2016-35.pdf

The second linked reference indicates that the frequency of extreme El Nino events will increase rapidly with relatively minor increases in GMSTA; while the frequency of extreme La Nina events will increase relatively little between 1.5 and 2C GMSTA.  This indicates that climate sensitivity is higher than assumed in AR5:

Guojian Wang et al (2017), "Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization", Nature Climate Change  7, 568–572,  doi:10.1038/nclimate3351

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n8/full/nclimate3351.html?foxtrotcallback=true

The third linked reference indicates that the time required to recharge the Western Pacific warm water pool has decreased from 1.5–3.5 years, in the 1979–99 period, to 0.8–1.3 years, in the 2000–16 period.  This is a clear sign that climate sensitivity is likely accelerating from the recent past, due to increased El Nino events:

Zeng-Zhen Hu et al (2017), "On the Shortening of the Lead Time of Ocean Warm Water Volume to ENSO SST Since 2000", Scientific Reports 7, Article number: 4294, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-04566-z

http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-04566-z

Next, I note that it is well known that the primary source of CO₂ fluctuations over the ENSO cycle is due to changes in land vegetation in the tropics (from 30N to 30S), rather than due to emissions from the ocean.  In this regards, the fourth reference shows that there has been a two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations over the past several decades. 

Wang, X., Piao, S., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Myneni, R.B., Cox, P., Heimann, M., Miller, J., Peng, S.P., Wang, T., Yang, H. and Chen, A., (2014), "A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations", Nature, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/nature12915.


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v506/n7487/full/nature12915.html#extended-data

http://sites.bu.edu/cliveg/files/2014/01/wang-nature-2014.pdf

Caption for the attached image: "Figure 1 | Change in detrended anomalies in CGR and tropical MAT, in dCGR/dMAT and in ªintCGR over the past five decades. a, Change in detrended CGR anomalies at Mauna Loa Observatory (black) and in detrended tropical MAT anomalies (red) derived from the CRU data set16. Tropical MAT is calculated as the spatial average over vegetated tropical lands (23uN to 23u S).  The highest correlations between detrended CGR and detrended tropicalMAT are obtained when no time lags are applied (R50.53, P,0.01). b, Change in dCGR/dMAT during the past five decades. c, Change in cintCGR during the past five decades. In b and c, different colours showdCGR/dMATor cint CGR estimated with moving time windows of different lengths (20 yr and 25 yr). Years on the horizontal axis indicate the central year of the moving time window used to derive dCGR/dMAT or cintCGR (for example, 1970 represents period 1960–1979 in the 20-yr time window). The shaded areas show the confidence interval of dCGR/dMATand cintCGR, as appropriate, derived using 20-yr or 25-yr moving windows in 500 bootstrap estimates."

The fifth reference indicates global warming is increasing the frequency of extreme El Ninos.  As strong El Ninos increase both the temperature and induce droughts in the tropics it is clear that CO₂ emissions increase from the tropical land vegetation during strong El Ninos:

Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Sang-Wook Yeh, Soon-Il An, Kim M. Cobb, Mat Collins, Eric Guilyardi, Fei-Fei Jin, Jong-Seong Kug, Matthieu Lengaigne, Michael J. McPhaden, Ken Takahashi, Axel Timmermann, Gabriel Vecchi, Masahiro Watanabe & Lixin Wu (2015), "ENSO and greenhouse warming", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 5, Pages: 849–859, doi:10.1038/nclimate2743


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2743.html

The sixth linked reference uses CMIP5 projections to estimate that increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations accelerate during El Nino events due to reductions in terrestrial productivity:

Jin-Soo Kim, Jong-Seong Kug, Jin-Ho Yoon and Su-Jong Jeong (2016), "Increased atmospheric CO2 growth rate during El Niño driven by reduced terrestrial productivity in the CMIP5 ESMs", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00672.1


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00672.1

The seventh linked reference indicates that AR5 meaningfully underestimates future global warming from land use and land cover change (LULCC).  This is an example of a mechanisms that may result in more rapid warming in the coming decades than projected by CMIP5:

Natalie M Mahowald, Daniel Ward, Scott Doney, Peter Hess and James T Randerson (2017), "Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?", Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d
&
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d/pdf

In the eighth linked reference, the authors found that sea surface temperatures from ENSO alone could not adequately explain the size and severity of the 2015-2016 drought in the Amazon. The paper reports that the 2015-2016 drought clearly exceeded that of the 100-year events in 2005 and 2010.  The tropical Pacific SST was unable to explain the severity of the 2015-2016 drought for a several reasons including: (a) land-use changes; and (b) warming from greenhouse gases.  Simply put, man-made warming is accelerating the movement of water through the Amazon ecosystem, which can cause drought even if precipitation does not decrease. Warming also causes changes in the large-scale patterns of air motion (atmospheric circulation) that reduces rainfall in this region.

Amir Erfanian, Guiling Wang, and Lori Fomenko (2017), "Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST", Sci Rep.; 7: 5811, doi:  10.1038/s41598-017-05373-2

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5517600/


Lastly, in the ninth linked reference, Shrivastava et al (2017) states: "Several SOA processes highlighted in this review are complex and interdependent, and have non-linear effects on the properties, formation and evolution of SOA.  Current global models neglect this complexity and non-linearity, and thus are less likely to accurately predict the climate forcing of SOA, and project future climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases."  Thus, climate change induced increases in extreme El Ninos, combined with land-use changes in the tropics can result in deforestation that decreases local cloud formation from VOC emissions.

Shrivastava M, Kappa CD, Fan J, et al. (2017), "Recent Advances in Understanding Secondary Organic Aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing", Reviews of Geophysics, DOI: 10.1002/2016RG000540
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 04:31:03 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #338 on: September 05, 2017, 07:49:42 PM »
My last post cited evidence for dynamical Earth Systems responses that are underestimated in AR5 that (among other things) links the projection increase in extreme El Nino occurrences to steplike degradation of the Amazon rainforest and to the associated reduction on low altitude cloud cover (the loss of this low altitude cloud cover results in a reduction of associated negative radiative forcing) over the Amazon.  In this post, I cite evidence that the increased frequency of extreme El Nino events (associated both with 267 years of 90% of anthropogenic heat going into the ocean together with future anthropogenic warming) can lead to steplike dynamical warming from the poleward migration of high altitude clouds in the Tropical Pacific, leading to an increase in positive radiative forcing.

First, I note that extreme El Nino events telecommunicate heat to the two poles (more specifically into the North Pacific and into Western Antarctica), as shown in the first attached image (from Fogt et al 2011).

Second, the first linked 2012 article and second attached image illustrate how the bipolar seesaw can alternate warming periods in the NH and SH depending on the MOC and triggering events.

http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/deep-atlantic-circulation-during-the-last-glacial-25858002

The second linked article is entitled: "Massive Antarctic volcanic eruptions linked to abrupt Southern hemisphere climate changes", and indicates that abrupt climate change ~17.7 kya was associated with a series of halogen rich eruptions from Mt Takahe in the Byrd Subglacial Basin; which trigger bipolar seesaw cooling other NH (see the second image) 

https://phys.org/news/2017-09-massive-antarctic-volcanic-eruptions-linked.html

The third linked reference, Praetorius & Mix (2014) provides paleo-evidence of the importance of the synchronization of the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic, Oceans on Arctic amplification via a climate attractor interaction with the ENSO:

Summer K. Praetorius, Alan C. Mix, (2014), "Synchronization of North Pacific and Greenland climates preceded abrupt deglacial warming", Science 25 July 2014: Vol. 345 no. 6195 pp. 444-448 DOI: 10.1126/science.1252000

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/345/6195/444

Furthermore, the fourth linked reference indicates 14,000 years ago when the Laurentide Ice Sheet collapsed, the ENSO abruptly strengthened by about 25%:

Lu, Z., Liu, Z. & Zhu, J. (2016), "Abrupt intensification of ENSO forced by deglacial ice-sheet retreat in CCSM3", Clim Dyn,  46: 1877. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2681-3


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2681-3

The fifth linked reference confirms that the AMOC will likely slowdown in coming decades; which will certainly cause both the ENSO cycle to strengthen and for the Southern Ocean to warm:

Olson, R., An, SI., Fan, Y. et al. (2017), "North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections", Clim Dyn,  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3867-7

https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3867-7


The sixth linked reference indicates that "… the equatorial Pacific acts as a nonlinear amplifier that allows global climate to transition from deglacial to full interglacial conditions once atmospheric CO2 levels reach threshold levels.

Li Lo et. al. (2017), "Nonlinear climatic sensitivity to greenhouse gases over past 4 glacial/interglacial cycles", Scientific Reports 7, Article number: 4626, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-04031-x

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-04031-x.


The seventh linked reference discusses Hansen et al (2016)'s ice-climate feedback mechanism, where polar glacial ice sheet mass loss causes the MOC to slowdown and that in turn causes the equatorial oceans to heat up:

James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo (2016), "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous", Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.html


The eight linked reference provides field evidence supporting Hansen's ice-climate interaction mechanism.

Pepijn Bakker et al, Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge, Nature (2016). DOI: 10.1038/nature20582

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature20582.html

The ninth linked reference illustrates how warming of the equatorial ocean increases deep atmospheric convective circulations (see the third attached image) that move high altitude clouds poleward, thus increasing solar warming of the tropical oceans (which increases ECS as indicated in the fourth attached image from Andrew (2015)'s presentation at the Ringberg workshop):
Sherwood, S.C., Bony, S. and Dufresne, J.-L., (2014) "Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing", Nature; Volume: 505, pp 37–42, doi:10.1038/nature12829

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html

Also see Sherwood's (2015) presentation at the Ringberg workshop:

http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/atmosphaere/WCRP_Grand_Challenge_Workshop/Ringberg_2015/Talks/Sherwood_24032015.pdf


I further note that Trenberth criticized Hansen et al (2016) for not adequately accounting for influence of the ENSO and the Equatorial Pacific in general; which can telecommunicate energy (via both the atmosphere & the ocean) from the tropical Pacific directly to West Antarctica thereby warming the WAIS.

Finally, the tenth reference regarding the CloudSat & CALIPSO within the A-Train, shows a dramatic increase (more positive) in observed net cloud feedback as compared to prior assumptions, due both to an observed decrease in low altitude clouds and an increase in high altitude clouds:

Graeme Stephens et. al. (2017), "CloudSat and CALIPSO within the A-Train: Ten years of actively observing the Earth system", BAMS, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0324.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0324.1?utm_content=bufferebbb9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
or
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0324.1
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #339 on: September 06, 2017, 06:03:06 PM »
The linked article indicates that current climate models do not yet know how to correctly model the observed effects of local rapid warming (see the first attached image & the following extract)
Title: "Understanding Causes and Effects of Rapid Warming in the Arctic"

https://eos.org/project-updates/understanding-causes-and-effects-of-rapid-warming-in-the-arctic

Extract: "Although many individual consequences of changes in these Arctic climate parameters are known, their combined influence and relative importance for Arctic amplification are complicated to quantify and difficult to disentangle. As a result, there is not yet a consensus in the Arctic research community about the dominant mechanisms leading to the phenomenon of Arctic Amplification."

However, numerous paleo studies including Wolfe et al (2017) indicate that Arctic Amplification during periods warmer than the Holocene Thermal Maximum, was much higher than current models project (see the second attached image, and the considerations that the ocean heat content is already impacted by 267 years of anthropogenic global warming and as the ozone corrected value of CO2e is already above 530ppm):

Alexander P. Wolfe, Alberto V. Reyes, Dana L. Royer, David R. Greenwood, Gabriela Doria, Mary H. Gagen, Peter A. Siver and John A. Westgate (May 2017), "Middle Eocene CO2 and climate reconstructed from the sediment fill of a subarctic kimberlite maar", GEOLOGY, July 2017; v. 45; no. 7; p. 619–622, doi:10.1130/G39002.1

http://www.geosociety.org/datarepository/2017/2017202.pdf

Hopefully, state of the art ESM model projections will begin to consider such factors as:

(a) ECS can increase with increasing GMSTA, particularly due to an increase of the frequency of extreme ENSO events and ENSO as a climate attractor that can active other possible feedback mechanisms as discussed in my last two posts.

(b) Hosing from a collapse of the WAIS this century if/when GMSTA increases to somewhere between 2 and 2.7C above pre-industrial conditions.

(c) The influence of both rainfall and GMSTA increase on both permafrost degradation and methane emissions from thermokarst lakes.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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« Reply #340 on: September 09, 2017, 12:01:56 AM »
The linked "… and Then There's Physics" article discusses climate feedbacks beyond the strict definition of ECS.  However, it does not discuss when slow response feedback began to become activated (~1750?), the impacts of the rate & magnitude of radiative forcing, synergy between feedback mechanisms, dynamical responses, ice-climate feedback, cloud feedback uncertainties, etc.

Title: "Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity"

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/09/07/beyond-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity/

Extract related to the attached image: "This is illustrated quite nicely by the figure on the right, which shows the surface temperature anomaly, on the x-axis, and top-of-the atmosphere radiative imbalance, on the y-axis. The black line is the case in which we assume feedbacks remain constant; this produces what is typically referred to as the Effective Climate Sensitivity. We expect, however, that temperature dependent feedbacks and the pattern of the warming could lead to more warming in future than we would expect based on an assumption of constant feedbacks; this will eventually lead to the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity being larger than the Effective Climate Sensitivity. There are also other factors, like internal variability, the base state climate, the magnitude of the forcing, and what produces the change in forcing, that could also influence the overall warming. On top of this, there are slower feedbacks that will ultimately further amplify the warming, producing the Earth System Sensitivity."

See also:

Knutti et al (2017), "Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity", Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo3017

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo3017.pdf?foxtrotcallback=true

« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 12:10:01 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #341 on: September 12, 2017, 12:34:27 AM »
While I have previously cited the following linked reference in the "Conservative Scientists & its Consequences" thread, and while I believe that it errs on the side of least drama, ESLD, w.r.t. both the ice-climate feedback mechanism, and ECS (especially w.r.t. cloud feedback mechanisms); nevertheless, I post it here and I note that:

1. If the GMSTA reaches 2C by 2035 and 2.7C by 2045 then 50% of the WAIS could collapse by about 2060, &
2.  A 50% collapse of the WAIS by 2060 could cause seismic and volcanic (particularly of halogen emitting volcanoes in West Antarctica), soon thereafter.

Robert E. Kopp, Robert M. DeConto, Daniel A. Bader, Carling C. Hay, Radley M. Horton, Scott Kulp, Michael Oppenheimer, David Pollard, Benjamin H. Strauss (2017), "Implications of ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse mechanisms for sea-level projections", arXiv:1704.05597v1

https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.05597
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1704.05597.pdf

Abstract: "Probabilistic sea-level projections have not yet integrated insights from physical ice-sheet models representing mechanisms, such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse, that can rapidly increase ice-sheet discharge. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on projections of global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL) change. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), these physical processes increase median projected 21st century GMSL rise from ∼80  cm to ∼150  cm. Revised median RSL projections would, without protective measures, by 2100 submerge land currently home to >79  million people, an increase of ∼25  million people. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration, increases sensitivity to forcing: overlap between the central 90\% of the frequency distributions for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93--243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26--98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10  m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by ∼900  million people (vs. ∼80  million for RCP 2.6). There is little correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond, so current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. These initial explorations indicate the value and challenges of developing truly probabilistic sea-level rise projections incorporating complex ice-sheet physics."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #342 on: September 24, 2017, 10:08:45 PM »
The linked reference explains how climate attractors converge non-linearly with time once the initiating conditions occur.  Hopefully, AR6 will both recognize and report this response to continued warming, and it could rapidly ratchet the climate to higher dynamical levels sooner than most decision makers are expecting:

Drótos, G., Bódai, T. & Tél, T. (2017), "On the importance of the convergence to climate attractors", Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top., 226: 2031. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2017-70045-7

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjst/e2017-70045-7

Abstract: "Ensemble approaches are becoming widely used in climate research. In contrast to weather forecast, however, in the climatic context one is interested in long-time properties, those arising on the scale of several decades. The well-known strong internal variability of the climate system implies the existence of a related dynamical attractor with chaotic properties. Under the condition of climate change this should be a snapshot attractor, naturally arising in an ensemble-based framework. Although ensemble averages can be evaluated at any instant of time, results obtained during the process of convergence of the ensemble towards the attractor are not relevant from the point of view of climate. In simulations, therefore, attention should be paid to whether the convergence to the attractor has taken place. We point out that this convergence is of exponential character, therefore, in a finite amount of time after initialization relevant results can be obtained. The role of the time scale separation due to the presence of the deep ocean is discussed from the point of view of ensemble simulations."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #343 on: October 06, 2017, 01:07:26 AM »
The linked reference finds that abrupt climate change is more strongly influence by changes in ice volume forcing than by changes in insolation forcing

Mitsui, T. & Crucifix, M. (2017), "Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study", Clim Dyn, 48: 2729. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3235-z

Abstract: "The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca 2+  Ca2+ record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502–507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2–4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record."

See also:

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/innovation/groups/noneqsys/Events/Online-Resources/CRUCIFIX-M-CANES-Seminar.pdf
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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« Reply #344 on: October 09, 2017, 04:05:44 AM »
With a hat tip to Cid-Yama, I provide the following link about new research on the rate of subsea permafrost degradation, and associated methane emissions, in the ESAS.  This research identifies numerous mechanisms that could accelerate methane emissions from the ESAS faster than assumed in AR5:

Natalia Shakhova, et al (2017), "Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf", Nature Communications 8, Article number: 15872,
doi:10.1038/ncomms15872

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15872

Abstract: "The rates of subsea permafrost degradation and occurrence of gas-migration pathways are key factors controlling the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane (CH4) emissions, yet these factors still require assessment. It is thought that after inundation, permafrost-degradation rates would decrease over time and submerged thaw-lake taliks would freeze; therefore, no CH4 release would occur for millennia. Here we present results of the first comprehensive scientific re-drilling to show that subsea permafrost in the near-shore zone of the ESAS has a downward movement of the ice-bonded permafrost table of ∼14 cm year−1 over the past 31–32 years. Our data reveal polygonal thermokarst patterns on the seafloor and gas-migration associated with submerged taliks, ice scouring and pockmarks. Knowing the rate and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation is a prerequisite to meaningful predictions of near-future CH4 release in the Arctic."

Edit, see also:

http://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/nick-breeze/203-subsea-permafrost-on-east-siberian-arctic-shelf-now-in-accelerated-decline

« Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 04:48:50 AM by AbruptSLR »
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« Reply #345 on: October 14, 2017, 05:07:18 PM »
The linked reference concludes: "... the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity which considers radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice sheet (LI) albedo, S[CO2,LI], is larger during interglacial states than during glacial conditions by more than a factor two."  This is not good news as consensus climate science typically assumes the modern ECS is essentially the same as that during the last glacial period.  Thus is it conceivable that before 2100 the effective ECS (S[X) could be as high as 6C.


Peter Koehler, Lennert Stap, Anna von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, Roderik, S. W. van de Wal & Jonah Bloch-Johnson (4 October 2017), "A state-dependent quantification of climate sensitivity based on paleo data of the last 2.1 million years", Paleoceanography, DOI: 10.1002/2017PA003190

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017PA003190/abstract

Abstract: "The evidence from both data and models indicates that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X] — the global annual mean surface temperature change (ΔTg) as a response to a change in radiative forcing X (ΔR[X]) — is state-dependent. Such a state dependency implies that the best fit in the scatter plot of ΔTg versus ΔR[X] is not a linear regression, but can be some non-linear or even non-smooth function. While for the conventional linear case the slope (gradient) of the regression is correctly interpreted as the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X], the interpretation is not straightforward in the non-linear case. We here explain how such a state-dependent scatter plot needs to be interpreted, and provide a theoretical understanding — or generalization — how to quantify S[X] in the non-linear case. Finally, from data covering the last 2.1 Myr we show that — due to state dependency — the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity which considers radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice sheet (LI) albedo, , is larger during interglacial states than during glacial conditions by more than a factor two."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson