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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #350 on: December 07, 2017, 06:24:05 PM »
While BECCS certainly has some role to play in good policy, I am horrified at how minions of policy makers use Cost-Risk Analysis of BECCS to justify the 'wisdom' of policy maker to delay cutting GHG emissions as rapidly as possible.  Such analyses are deluded, and will likely contribute to a global socio-economic collapse sometime between 2050 and 2060:

Mintenig, J., Khabbazan, M. M., and Held, H.: The Role of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the Case of Delayed Climate Policy – Insights from Cost-Risk Analysis, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-117, in review, 2017.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-117/

Abstract. Cost-Risk Analysis (CRA), a hybrid of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), has been proposed as an alternative to CEA as a decision criterion for evaluating climate policy. It weighs mitigation costs against associated risks of violating a predefined temperature guardrail, thereby enabling an analysis of otherwise infeasible temperature targets. Under CEA, delaying climate policy causes infeasibility of temperature targets which was resolved by the assessment under CRA. Indeed, CRA enables a quantitative evaluation of any delay scenario, thereby yielding information of the severeness of postponing climate policy. Alternatively, negative emission technologies have been included in CEA to enlarge the leeway in decision making and postpone infeasibility. This study closes the loop by evaluating the impact of the technology option BECCS (Bioenergy and Carbon Capture and Storage) in light of delayed climate policy under CRA. The work is conducted using the Integrated Assessment Model MIND (Model of Investment and Technological Development). This interplay creates the following insights: An inclusion of BECCS avoids corner solutions that were previously identified for delay scenarios, yielding a larger window of opportunity for action to mitigate climate change. Moreover, it postpones mitigation efforts into the future and removes the pressure to shut down fossil fuel use immediately. Thereby, mitigation-induced welfare losses are reduced substantially. BECSS, when evaluated under CRA, has confirmed well-known results from CEA. However, in contrast to results derived from CEA, mitigation-induced welfare losses decline with delay, while climate risk-induced welfare losses increase with delay by approximately the same magnitude. Hence within CRA, BECCS reduces the welfare effect of delayed climate policy by an order of magnitude. This underlines the crucial role of BECCS for the case of delay, even if one changes the decision-analytic framework from CEA to CRA and thereby softened the temperature target.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #351 on: December 09, 2017, 04:03:48 PM »
As we all live in the Anthropocene (including myself), we all tend to use human criteria for judging what to act upon.  As climate change involves the criminal act of introducing GHG pollutants into atmosphere, we all tend to use the criminal justice criteria of guilt beyond a reasonable double; which leads us to believe that a BAU (RCP 8.5/SSP5) pathway has a long-tail probability of occurrence.  With that in mind, I provide the following Wikipedia quote on Conviction Rates in the USA; indicating a 93% conviction rate in 2012.  Thus do not be surprised when what you think might be a 3% chance of occurrence (a fat-tailed probability), turns out to be a 93% probability because we are dealing with decision makers who are addicted to cheap energy and thus are more likely to be guilty than our justice system (not trying to be bias) leads us to believe:

"United States. In the United States, the federal court system, the conviction rose from approximately 75 percent to approximately 85% between 1972 and 1992. For 2012, the US Department of Justice reported a 93% conviction rate. The conviction rate is also high in U.S. state courts."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #352 on: December 14, 2017, 06:43:57 PM »
How many links in the chain of tipping point mechanisms leading to abrupt climate change this century, are you choosing to ignore?

Edit: I note that even James Hansen is counting on an increase in dust from desertification serving as cloud condensation nucleation points to increase low elevation clouds to serve as a negative feedback to resist global warming; but Lenton et al. (2008)'s image indicates that the current greening of these deserts (and possible BECCS measures) may actually reduce this dust source; which could result in a positive feedback from this mechanism.

Edit2, See the linked associate pdf entitled: "Earth System Tipping Points".

https://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0564-112.pdf/$file/EE-0564-112.pdf
« Last Edit: December 14, 2017, 07:27:31 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #353 on: December 15, 2017, 11:49:33 PM »
As a follow-on to my last post, the linked Pik-Postdam website discusses tipping cascades of significantly interlinked positive feedback mechanisms potentially leading to abrupt climate change:

Title: "DominoES project    Domino Effects in the Earth System: Can Antarctica tip climate policy?"

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/projects/activities/dominoes

Extract: "Tipping elements are components of the Earth system that could be pushed into qualitatively different states by small external perturbations, with profound environmental impacts possibly endangering the livelihoods of millions of people. There are indications for significant interlinkages between climate tipping elements and even the potential for tipping cascades or domino effects from the climate to the social sphere. We will assess these effects for a highly relevant tipping chain connecting climatic tipping elements like Antarctica and Greenland with potential social tipping processes in public opinion formation and climate policy changes, and their societal implications.

DominoES is a joint project by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences (GESIS) funded by the Leibniz Association (2017 - 2020)."
« Last Edit: December 16, 2017, 12:05:44 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #354 on: December 16, 2017, 04:07:31 AM »
The linked reference contains the cited extract regarding potential climate change surprises which gives a very high confidence that future changes outside the consensus projections cannot be ruled out; and give a medium confidence that consensus climate model projections are more likely to underestimate rather than to overestimate long-term future climate change:

USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp.

Title: "Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements"

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/

Extract: "While climate models incorporate important climate processes that can be well quantified, they do not include all of the processes that can contribute to feedbacks, compound extreme events, and abrupt and/or irreversible changes. For this reason, future changes outside the range projected by climate models cannot be ruled out (very high confidence). Moreover, the systematic tendency of climate models to underestimate temperature change during warm paleoclimates suggests that climate models are more likely to underestimate than to overestimate the amount of long-term future change (medium confidence)."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #355 on: December 16, 2017, 05:21:52 PM »
As a follow-on to my last post, I note that USGCRP (2017) Chapter 15: Potential Surprises provides the following supporting evidence for their medium confidence assertion that consensus climate models underestimate paleo reconstructions of climate sensitivity

Extract: "The second half of this key finding is based upon the tendency of global climate models to underestimate, relative to geological reconstructions, the magnitude of both long-term global mean warming and the amplification of warming at high latitudes in past warm climates (e.g., Salzmann et al. 2013; Goldner et al. 2014; Caballeo and Huber 2013; Lunt et al. 2012)."

Note USGCRP (2017) classifies Medium Confidence as: "Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought"

Furthermore, the guide to USGCRP (2017) classifies these "Potential Surprises" as 'potential low probability/high consequence "surprises" resulting from climate change' and as 'high-risk tails and bounding scenarios'; and acknowledge that 'knowledge gaps' exist that limit their ability to precisely define the probability/risks associated with these "surprises".

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter-guide/

Extract: "Complementing this use of risk-focused language and presentation around specific scientific findings in the report, Chapter 15: Potential Surprises provides an overview of potential low probability/high consequence “surprises” resulting from climate change. This includes its analyses of thresholds, also called tipping points, in the climate system and the compounding effects of multiple, interacting climate change impacts whose consequences may be much greater than the sum of the individual impacts. Chapter 15 also highlights critical knowledge gaps that determine the degree to which such high-risk tails and bounding scenarios can be precisely defined, including missing processes and feedbacks."

This USGCRP (2017) characterization of "Potential Surprises", reinforces my belief that consensus climate scientists are acting as co-dependents who cleverly facilitate the fossil fuel addiction of the decision makers that have put us all at risk of climate catastrophe this century, as illustrated by the cascading tipping points cited by the DominoES project.

I wish that I had the time and energy to repeat the thousands of posts that I have made that indicate that such "Potential Surprises" this century are much more likely than low probability high-risk tail events; which ignores such consideration as: that CO2e is currently over 530ppm, that recent masking mechanisms and lag time have hidden some of the apparent risk, that none of the CMIP5 modeling include ice-climate feedback mechanism, etc.  Nevertheless, I repost the four attached images, with:

The first image by Friedrich et al. (2016), illustrating that USGRP (2017) ignored numerous recent studies that used dynamical analysis of paleo data to show that ECS has been/is higher than consensus science acknowledge.

The second image by Armour (2016), illustrating that USGRP (2017) ignored consideration of slow response mechanisms that PH17 show have been slowly/progressively activated since 1750 and are now in effect.  When considering these slow response feedbacks the most frequent (mode) value for ECS is about 4C, but due to the right-skew of the PDF the mean value is close to 5C.

The middle panel of the third image from Andrew's 2015 Ringberg presentation shows that the slow response mechanism identified by PH17 is characterized by a warm Tropical Pacific and has an ECS value of about 5C.  Furthermore, I note that the ice-climate feedback mechanism (including freshwater hosing events from the AIS (particularly the WAIS), the GIS, and from a reversal of the Beaufort Gyre) were ignored by consensus models and all contribute to rapid warming of the tropical oceans and particularly the Tropical Pacific.

While all consensus models cited by USGRP (2017) ignored radiative forcing input from permafrost regions, the fourth image illustrates just one such ignored positive feedback mechanism that following RCP 8.5 until about 2050-2060 will result in major pulse emissions of both carbon dioxide and methane from thermokarst lakes in the Arctic permafrost.

There are many other 'dominoes' that I could cite for a scenario of a potential cascade of tipping points leading to abrupt climate change this century; however, as the US DOE is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on the state-of-the-art E3SM climate model (to be completed by 2027), I think that any scenario(s) that I suggest would likely go unappreciated.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #356 on: December 18, 2017, 07:16:28 PM »
In this post I note that consensus/reticent climate scientists apparently believe that in order to avoid over-reactions to possible future climate risks that it is advisable to play a game with non-scientists (including decision makers & the public).  As climate change is complex and their incomplete models cannot match paleo cases of super interglacial periods, nor can their incomplete models project the dynamical behavior resulting from our current unprecedented situation; they ignore certain factors that they hope either have a small impact or will not be sufficiently activated by the time that mankind produces a sustainable socio-economic system.  These reticent climate scientists then put this ignored factors in a conceptual bag, and then gradually, over time as technology & budget permit, they pull various ignored factor out of the conceptual bag to see if they need to update their old models in order to better match their current understanding of our climate reality (say from CMIP1 thru CMIP6 etc.).

Examples of such ignored factors include (but are not limited to): freshwater hosing events (including ice-climate feedback [and cliff failures & hydrofracturing of ice sheets] & bipolar seesaw response [including hosing from the Beaufort Gyre]); GHG emissions from permafrost degradation (including methane from thermokarst lakes); albedo flip (including the risk of rainfall in the ; higher than projected population growth; higher than expected cloud feedback; higher than expected Arctic Amplification; worse than expected deforestation and wildfires; and worse than expected synergy/nonlinearity between tipping mechanisms (including: accelerated degradation of tropical rainforests and peatland; etc).  This list is incomplete and if broken down into fundamental factors would include thousands of items.

Now such a situation roughly matches the case for a hypergeometric distribution (see linked article below), where reticent climate scientists keep pulling previously ignored factors out of the conceptual bag, without replacement, until their climate models are good enough to match the risks of our actual path forward.  However, as the first attached image of a hypergeometric distribution indicates, the probabilities shift to the right until success is achieved (by developing sufficiently accurate models).

Title: "Hypergeometric distribution"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeometric_distribution

Extract: "In probability theory and statistics, the hypergeometric distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes the probability of successes (random draws for which the object drawn has a specified feature) in draws, without replacement, from a finite population of size that contains exactly objects with that feature, wherein each draw is either a success or a failure. In contrast, the binomial distribution describes the probability of successes in draws with replacement."


However, climate risk is probability of occurrence times consequences, which is frequently characterized by a right-skewed Weibull Distribution shown by the second image, where the location parameter (gamma) can be taken as the results from the hypergeometric distribution exercise; which shift the Weibull Distribution to the right, resulting in much higher risks from what have been assumed to be long-tailed risks.

While SLR risk is far from the total climate risk this century, it is significant and easy to conceptualize.  Thus I provide the third image (from AR5) of early IPCC SLR projections; and I note that NOAA now recommends a value of 2.5m by 2100 for the design of significant coastal facilities (like power plants); while the four image indicates deep uncertainty risks of about 5m of global mean sea level rise by 2100.  Thus do not be surprised when efforts like DominoES and E3SM, are complete and indicate that our collective climate risks are much higher than AR5 indicates.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #357 on: December 19, 2017, 07:08:27 PM »
For those interested in an overview of atmospheric bridges, oceanic tunnels and global climatic telecommunications, I offer the following linked 2007 open access reference.  However, I warn that it only provides a low level overview and does not explicitly address issues such as ice-climate feedback (ala Hansen et al 2016) nor issues like the role of Agulhus Leakage in the bipolar seesaw mechanism:

Zhengyu Liu & Mike Alexander (23 June 2007), "Atmospheric bridge, oceanic tunnel, and global climatic teleconnections', Reviews of Geophysics; DOI: 10.1029/2005RG000172

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005RG000172/full

Abstract: "We review teleconnections within the atmosphere and ocean, their dynamics and their role in coupled climate variability. We concentrate on teleconnections in the latitudinal direction, notably tropical-extratropical and interhemispheric interactions, and discuss the timescales of several teleconnection processes. The tropical impact on extratropical climate is accomplished mainly through the atmosphere. In particular, tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies impact extratropical climate variability through stationary atmospheric waves and their interactions with midlatitude storm tracks. Changes in the extratropics can also impact the tropical climate through upper ocean subtropical cells at decadal and longer timescales. On the global scale the tropics and subtropics interact through the atmospheric Hadley circulation and the oceanic subtropical cell. The thermohaline circulation can provide an effective oceanic teleconnection for interhemispheric climate interactions."

Edit: The first attached image shows an oceanic Rossby Wave Train that can propagate from the Equatorial Pacific to West Antarctica in a timeframe of months.

Edit 2: The second image shows that during a paleo (45 kya) North Atlantic hosing (D-O) event, warm Gulf Stream water flowed under the less saline (but colder) surface water in order to warm the Norwegian Sea.  Also, the third image shows that under extant conditions with both cool North Pacific and North Atlantic ocean temperatures, atmospheric Rossby waves can still telecommunicate heat from the tropical oceans directly to Arctic regions (as indicated).
« Last Edit: December 19, 2017, 11:51:54 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #358 on: January 03, 2018, 04:29:22 PM »
Per the linked article if we keep following RCP 8.5 (assuming ECS = 3.1C), then about 25% of the Earth will be subject to desertification by 2050 (see the attached image):

Chang-Eui Park et al (2018), "Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification",  Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0034-4

http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4
&
http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4.epdf?referrer_access_token=uomV724E6L7Azgr_quk6KdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Md-_o5A1rhm4JzTytmIvTkmxaaT7siHGll-VC_gYGc86rzaCGyHAOR4rvUdRgQU-l25yhfdvQ3YA9Sav1Hp-9FF5MB-iTHjnQ37ZcRAyET_8yswPHc50VudILwTqUqzbfytP20P8axT5rTSHLyrhghYS-UOsW-GxJvHJaa_8Fq3dvxpyfvvNDVuVY3ll6olzw%3D&tracking_referrer=www.newsweek.com

Abstract: "Aridity—the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; P) to demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET)—is projected to decrease (that is, areas will become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, exacerbating land degradation and desertification1,2,3,4,5,6. However, the timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability—defined here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA)—is unknown, despite its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policies7,8,9,10. Here we estimate ToEA from projections of 27 global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and in doing so, identify where emergence occurs before global mean warming reaches 1.5 °C and 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. On the basis of the ensemble median ToEA for each grid cell, aridification emerges over 32% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) of the total land surface before the ensemble median of global mean temperature change reaches 2 °C in each scenario. Moreover, ToEA is avoided in about two-thirds of the above regions if the maximum global warming level is limited to 1.5 °C. Early action for accomplishing the 1.5 °C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial aridification and related impacts."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #359 on: March 24, 2018, 03:52:31 PM »
Talk about Human Stupidity, with at least 50-years of warning, any smart civilization would have got the message:

Title: "Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades.'"

http://www.dailyclimate.org/paul-ehrlich-collapse-of-civilisation-is-a-near-certainty-within-decades-cities-the-guardian-2551705521.html

Extract: "Fifty years after the publication of his controversial book The Population Bomb, biologist Paul Ehrlich warns overpopulation and overconsumption are driving us over the edge."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #360 on: March 27, 2018, 05:23:43 PM »
In a rational world one would think that the U.S. Commander in Chief would listen to warning from his admirals, but not if mankind is subject to widespread mental illness:

Title: "Admiral sees national security issues in climate change"

http://cumberlink.com/news/local/communities/carlisle/admiral-sees-national-security-issues-in-climate-change/article_199638a6-aa87-520d-93bd-b01e9f6f9ab0.html

Extract: "A retired rear admiral for the U.S. Navy held a lecture at Dickinson College to talk about the dangers climate change poses to national security.

Dr. David Titley spoke about the sea-level rise that is threatening U.S. bases internationally. He says the effects stretch farther than severe weather; it could mean food and water shortages, political instability and war.

Titley said this is a real issue that people will deal with in their lifetimes."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #361 on: March 27, 2018, 11:42:18 PM »
The threats of climate change have been evident since at least the late 1970's (& to people like POTUS since at least the mid-1960's); nevertheless, insufficient progress has been made in this fight, largely due to 'Analysis Paralysis' on the part of climate scientists.  For instance, after decades of research, the uncertainty range for climate sensitivity reported in AR5 is actually larger than that reported in FAR (First Assessment Report).

As BAU-thinking got us into our current mess, on the concept that it is necessary to fight fire with fire, I provide the linked Forbes article on how to overcome the 'Analysis Paralysis' of decision-making.  For climate scientists to overcome their 'analysis paralysis' I recommend (using the logic of the article) that climate scientists:

1. Set a 'drop dead' date:  The Paris Agreement says that the signatory states will strive limit GMSTA to 1.5C above pre-industrial.  Climate scientist should make it very clear to the public that the decision makers will miss this reasonable goal, without the use of geoengineering which the climate scientists recommend not be implemented.

2. Get a sanity check: The current rate of anthropogenic radiative forcing is about 100-times faster than during the PETM.  Thus climate scientists should publically emphasize only the projections from the highest-performance twenty to thirty ESMs that have been calibrated to observed hyperthermal event paleodata.  I note that such high-performance ESMs exhibit climate sensitivities that are significantly higher than the mean ECS value cited in AR5.

3. Curb your curiosity: Rather than losing view of the forest due to the presence of too many trees, climate scientists should adopt a limit state characterization of climate parameters (like: ECS & GMTA) including a maximum credible limit state case.

4. Recognize that the moons will never align:  As climate change projections are too complex to be able understood with a high degree of certainty, climate scientists should adopt the 'Precautionary Principle' when interpreting the output from the high-performance ESMs.

5. Stair step your decisions:  As our understanding of climate science keeps changing; climate scientists should regularly update their projections and should publically discuss cases where 'fat-tailed' risks are actually realized.

Title: "How To Overcome The 'Analysis Paralysis' Of Decision-Making"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffboss/2015/03/20/how-to-overcome-the-analysis-paralysis-of-decision-making/#3ee9d51d1be5

Extract: "Set a 'drop dead' date.

Get a sanity check.

Curb your curiosity.

Recognize that the moons will never align.

Stair step your decisions.

Decisions are never final for the simple fact that change is never absolute.  Rather, change is ongoing."
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 04:37:09 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

magnamentis

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #362 on: April 03, 2018, 04:23:23 PM »
one more great read ASLR, thanks for this and all others, i never feel the urge to reply except to express my sincere appreciation like this time, even though there are sometimes details that i do not share 100% like the "glorification" (sorry don't know a better term) of certain technologies and managers that have there serious downsides as well :-) but we were there already (current kind of power storage for example, read batteries)

have a good day

sidd

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #363 on: April 12, 2018, 07:15:53 AM »
oren posted on another thread and suggested it be posted here. i agree

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,347.msg149617.html#msg149617
refiring a coal plant for bitcoin mining exhibits weapons grade levels of stupidity

https://www.cnet.com/news/australian-coal-power-plant-reopened-blockchain-bitcoin-applications/#ftag=COS-05-10aaa0j

"The 150 megawatt Redbank coal-fired power station, located near Singleton, was closed in 2014."

"It is understood the blockchain centre could consume between 10 and 20 megawatts of electricity."

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/blockchain-to-get-behind-the-grid-in-landmark-australian-deal-20180409-p4z8j3.html


sidd

magnamentis

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #364 on: April 12, 2018, 09:44:56 PM »
such things only will change once pollution due to greed will be a crime and some of those white collar criminals will face jail time.

but then it will take an ugly revolution to make the rulers inflict such laws on themselves.

TerryM

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #365 on: April 12, 2018, 10:15:22 PM »
I'm old enough to remember when greed was seen as a bad thing. ???
Terry

magnamentis

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #366 on: April 14, 2018, 07:44:12 PM »
I'm old enough to remember when greed was seen as a bad thing. ???
Terry

it has been seen and is still officially seen as such but without consequences and they give a sh...t and seduce many young people, especially females with their costly show that can't last long ;)

however i understood what you mean :-)
« Last Edit: May 05, 2018, 08:40:24 PM by magnamentis »

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #367 on: May 05, 2018, 08:13:58 PM »
Interesting argument, posted recently also by Climate State, from a Cornell engineering professor who blames the shale gas revolution in the U.S. for a significant contribution to emissions, in large part because the amount of methane lost in the overall process has been underestimated, making it worse than coal. He goes into detail in the video at the bottom of this article.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/04/11/climate-change-two-degree-warming-fracking-natural-gas-rush-ingraffea

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #368 on: May 07, 2018, 07:06:53 PM »
The DOE has now released computer code & preliminary results from ACME (Accelerated Climate Model for Energy) while the DOE has renamed the program E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model), and this world's most sophisticated climate model projects that ECS for the rest of this century will be about 5.2C (& this relatively high value is likely attributable to the state-of-the-art way that ACME/E3SM models aerosols and cloud feedback mechanisms).

While some consensus scientists (like Bjorn Stevens) have said that it is difficult to determine whether the ACME findings are any more relevant than other models in the CMIP6 program; I believe that these findings from the world's most advanced ESM warrant the adoptions of the Precautionary Principle, particularly as the ACME results only partially address Hansen's ice-climate feedback mechanism:

Title: "DOE’s maverick climate model is about to get its first test"
doi:10.1126/science.aau0578

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/05/does-maverick-climate-model-about-get-its-first-test

Extract: "In 2017, after President Donald Trump took office and pulled the nation out of the Paris climate accords, DOE dropped "climate" from the project name. The new name, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), better reflects the model's focus on the entire Earth system, says project leader David Bader of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.
..
One preliminary result, on the climate's sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2), will "raise some eyebrows," Bader says. Most models estimate that, for a doubling of CO2 above preindustrial levels, average global temperatures will rise between 1.5°C and 4.5°C. The E3SM predicts a strikingly high rise of 5.2°C, which Leung suspects is due to the way the model handles aerosols and clouds. And like many models, the E3SM produces two bands of rainfall in the tropics, rather than the one seen in nature near the equator.

The first test of the E3SM will be its performance in CMIP6. Nearly three dozen modeling groups, including newcomers from South Korea, India, Brazil, and South Africa, are expected to submit results to the intercomparison between now and 2020."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

solartim27

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #369 on: June 22, 2018, 04:36:36 PM »
Interesting argument, posted recently also by Climate State, from a Cornell engineering professor who blames the shale gas revolution in the U.S. for a significant contribution to emissions, in large part because the amount of methane lost in the overall process has been underestimated, making it worse than coal.
This seems to be related, but did not see the same author listed.  Basically, they haven't figured out how to keep the storage tanks from venting gas.

Quote
Bill McKibben (@billmckibben) Tweeted:
Yet more evidence that the switch to natural gas was a climate disaster: leaking methane has 'roughly the same climate impact in the short-term as emissions from all U.S. coal-fired power plants'
https://t.co/UTDAf5kVOT https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/1010148234604503041?s=17

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/06/20/science.aar7204

FNORD

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #370 on: August 01, 2018, 07:04:09 PM »
Today is the earliest 'Earth Overshoot Day' on record:

Title: "Earth Overshoot Day Shows We're Devouring the Planet's Resources Much Too Fast"
 
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/earth-overshoot-day-planet-resources_us_5b608a93e4b0de86f49b5162
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #371 on: August 02, 2018, 01:31:53 AM »
Today is the earliest 'Earth Overshoot Day' on record:

Title: "Earth Overshoot Day Shows We're Devouring the Planet's Resources Much Too Fast"
 
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/earth-overshoot-day-planet-resources_us_5b608a93e4b0de86f49b5162

Yay us!

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #372 on: August 02, 2018, 03:07:36 AM »
oh, wow, we are only over consuming by 12/7ths too much. That seems relatively fixable with me totally overhauling my way of life. ill get solar panels on my roof. and drive a tesla. and grow a tomato. and vote democratic socialist. and support equality in 3rd would countries to reduce the birth rate. yay! yay!

Too bad the real situation is 10 times worse
big time oops

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #373 on: August 18, 2018, 06:04:21 PM »
It is my belief that technology will promote authoritarianism around the world (including the USA), which in my opinion will promote consumption and radiative forcing (which is an example of Human Stupidity/Mental-Illness):

Title: "The police technology revolution no one is hearing about"

https://www.axios.com/the-controversial-technologies-police-are-using--4b849a32-834a-4661-92ec-f55f003f59e6.html
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #374 on: August 31, 2018, 04:53:13 PM »
More bad news:

Title: "Rise in insect pests under climate change to hit crop yields, study says"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/rise-in-insect-pests-under-climate-change-to-hit-crop-yields-study-says

Extract: "The study finds that global warming of 2C above pre-industrial levels – which is the limit set by the Paris Agreement – could cause pest-related yield losses from wheat, rice and maize to increase by 46%, 19% and 31%, respectively.

And each additional degree of temperature rise could cause yield losses from insect pests to increase by a further 10-25%, the research shows.

Losses from pest infestation are likely to be largest in China, the US and France – three of the world’s most important grain producers, according to the findings."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

mostly_lurking

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #375 on: September 09, 2018, 11:44:20 AM »
 :(

Rob Dekker

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #376 on: October 21, 2018, 09:49:00 AM »
Dozens of heavily-armed hunters rode into a national park in Cameroon, butchered over 600 majestic elephants, then hacked off their faces for their tusks. Poachers have annihilated half of central Africa’s last elephants. And no one's been able to stop them.

Until now!

Brave investigators have gone undercover in poaching rings in ten African countries, and already more than 2,000 traffickers have been jailed!
https://phys.org/news/2018-01-gabon-major-ivory-trafficking-dismantled.html

It’s awe-inspiring stuff, and it’s won awards, but many funders are wary of going head-to-head with organised crime. We may be the best community to scale this extraordinary operation, fast.

Four elephants are killed an hour -- it’s a race against time before we lose these gentle giants forever. But if we each give now, this team can expand to more countries, lock up more kingpins and complicit officials -- and we can ramp up campaigning to protect these beautiful creatures and all of our vulnerable natural world.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

vox_mundi

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #377 on: October 22, 2018, 06:14:54 PM »
First Thing We Do, Let’s Kill All the Experts


How Ignorance Became a Virtue
Quote
“America is now ill with a powerful mutant strain of intertwined ignorance, anti-rationalism and anti-intellectualism.” ... “Americans have reached a point where ignorance, especially of anything related to public policy, is an actual virtue”
That's the central argument of Tom Nichols' recent book, The Death of Expertise

Plenty of blame to go around

... Our education system has focused on promoting a degree of confidence in students, recognizing that this can be critical for success. But that can come at the expense of having students recognize the limits of their knowledge, leaving them feeling that they might become experts at anything they decided to attempt. If anything, Nichols argues, this is more of a problem in higher education, where college administrators have become focused on keeping their $20,000-a-year customers happy. (See also Dunning–Kruger effect)

The book points out how the Internet, rather than revealing just how much information is out there, has instead led people to think they can read the Wikipedia entry on climate science and tell someone with a Ph.D in climatology why they just don't understand that a new ice age is upon us because of sunspots. The Internet also allows these people to self-organize into communities, which helps them reinforce each other's mis-beliefs.

Given an inexhaustible buffet of facts, rumors, lies, serious analysis, crackpot speculation and outright propaganda to browse online, it becomes easy for one to succumb to “confirmation bias” — the tendency, as Nichols puts it, “to look for information that only confirms what we believe, to accept facts that only strengthen our preferred explanations, and to dismiss data that challenge what we accept as truth.”
Quote
... “To reject the advice of experts is to assert autonomy, a way for Americans to insulate their increasingly fragile egos from ever being told they’re wrong about anything. It is a new Declaration of Independence: No longer do we hold these truths to be self-evident, we hold all truths to be self-evident, even the ones that aren’t true. All things are knowable and every opinion on any subject is as good as any other.”
Populism has magnified disdain for elites and experts of all sorts, be they in foreign policy, economics, or even science.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dietrich_Bonhoeffer
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bligh8

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #378 on: May 03, 2019, 02:19:02 PM »
Dealing with the absurdity of human existence in the face of converging catastrophes.

Homo sapiens means wise human, but the name no longer suits us. As an evolutionary biologist who writes about Darwinian interpretations of human motivations and cultures, I propose that at some point we became what we are today: Homo absurdus, a human that spends its whole life trying to convince itself that its existence is not absurd.

As French philosopher Albert Camus put it: "Man is the only creature who refuses to be what he is." Thanks to this entrenched absurdity, the 21st century is riding on a runaway train of converging catastrophes in the Anthropocene.

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-absurdity-human-converging-catastrophes.html


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #379 on: May 03, 2019, 02:32:58 PM »
Just saw this thread for the first time and i'm shocked.

With all due respect AbruptSLR, but this framing of mental illness being equal to being stupid is an affront to people suffering from mental illnesses. A lot of mental illnesses don't affect intelligence at all. There even are mental illnesses that correlate with above average intelligence.

/rant

kassy

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #380 on: May 03, 2019, 02:41:01 PM »
I think he just means Human Stupidity as a specific mental illness...btw if we had pills to sell to ´cure´ that it would actually be in DSM.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #381 on: May 03, 2019, 03:04:02 PM »
If it is meant like that, ok!

I'm fine with being a member of a stupid race. No one can argue with that.

gerontocrat

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #382 on: May 03, 2019, 03:05:09 PM »
Just saw this thread for the first time and i'm shocked.

With all due respect AbruptSLR, but this framing of mental illness being equal to being stupid is an affront to people suffering from mental illnesses. A lot of mental illnesses don't affect intelligence at all. There even are mental illnesses that correlate with above average intelligence.

/rant
framing of mental illness being equal to being stupid ???

Perhaps AbruptSLR is referring to people with considerable and proven intelligence who knowingly choose to be, amongst many things, deniers of climate science, AGW and threats to the environment. They deliberately choose to ignore the real threat to their country, their community and their families in favour of short-term advantage.

Consider, for example, the host of legislators and Government officials who have hitched themselves to Trump's wagon and are implementing with considerable success what passes for his policies.

They think they are being clever, we would say they are being incredibly stoopid, dumb, horses' arses. Perhaps AbruptSLR would say it is a form of human mental illness (I would).

What is certain is that stupidity and intelligence are not mutually exclusive. I only have to look back on my own history to prove that.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #383 on: May 03, 2019, 03:10:06 PM »
Perhaps AbruptSLR is referring to people with considerable and proven intelligence who knowingly choose to be, amongst many things, deniers of climate science, AGW and threats to the environment. They deliberately choose to ignore the real threat to their country, their community and their families in favour of short-term advantage.

Thank you for the explanation Gerontocrat. You can read it like that i guess.

magnamentis

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #384 on: May 03, 2019, 04:41:05 PM »
Perhaps AbruptSLR is referring to people with considerable and proven intelligence who knowingly choose to be, amongst many things, deniers of climate science, AGW and threats to the environment. They deliberately choose to ignore the real threat to their country, their community and their families in favour of short-term advantage.

Thank you for the explanation Gerontocrat. You can read it like that i guess.

of course one can read it that way and let me add this to consider:

- not meaning you b_lk but indignation is one of the strongest weapon of hypyocritical
.  people and politicians to server their lobbyists best.

- it's obvious that extreme stupidity and certainly playing dumb in a self-distructive manner
. can be considered mentally ill.

- there are so many variations of mental illness that one doe not have to automatically assume
that alzheimer or any other natural and/or in context of global warming harmless variation is
meant.

- lack of EGO-Control is a mental illness for humans and a strength for animals, hence we should
(have to?= sooner or later have to define the term "human" again. is it meant genetically or
is being human a matter of ethics, empathy and spirit?

If humanity with all it's skills, many of them capable to self-destruct, is defined solely on a genetic basis we are doomed.

IMO what makes us human is to take necessary steps and make necessary decisions against our
basic instincts and egocentric wishes but for long-term achievement. Reflection and thinking ahead is what animals rarely do or only do it through instincts not through free decisions.

depending on the definition of humanity some things we do are ok because we are following natural instincts or they are mentally ill because if humanity is defined by "Mentis", stupidity is not a healthy condition and what is not healthy is ill to a certain degree.

and and and.......

it's almost impossible to discuss this in a few paragraphs or lines in a just manner, hence i'm going to end here but indignation is not appropriate considering the topic and the person who wrote it.

ASLR is one of the ONLY poster who's post have never ever given me a stomach ache and that includes my own contributions. even the stuff i wrote, at times gave me a headache later on. LOL

Once i was paying a lot of attention to the question of respect and that it depends who writes what. I reduced my efforts because only time can show to the just people who means it well and who doesn't, and ASLR in that aspect is beyond all doubts and this has to be put into account before getting indignated.

nice weekend @ALL

vox_mundi

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #385 on: May 03, 2019, 05:21:43 PM »
While I agree that equating 'stupid' with 'mental illness' may be an unfortunate choice of words; after reading the OP of this thread, What can one call the insanity of ignoring our situation with regards to climate change, and failure to act?

And, what is 'insanity,' if not 'mental illness'



From "Age of Stupid":

Why didn't we stop climate change when we had the chance?



stu·pid
/ˈst(y)o͞opəd/
adjective
Quote
1. having or showing a great lack of intelligence or common sense.
"I was stupid enough to think she was perfect"
Quote
synonyms:   unintelligent, ignorant, dense, brainless, mindless, foolish, dull-witted, dull, slow-witted, witless, slow, dunce-like, simpleminded, empty-headed, vacuous, vapid, halfwitted, idiotic, moronic, imbecilic, imbecile, obtuse, doltish; gullible, naive;
 informal thick, thick as two short planks, dim, dumb, dopey, dozy, crazy, barmy, cretinous, birdbrained, peabrained, pig-ignorant, bovine, slow on the uptake, soft in the head, brain-dead, boneheaded, lamebrained, thickheaded, chuckleheaded, dunderheaded, wooden, wooden-headed, fat-headed, muttonheaded; informaldaft, not the full shilling; vulgar slang dumb-ass
"they're not as stupid as they look"
foolish, silly, unintelligent, idiotic, brainless, mindless, scatterbrained, crackbrained, nonsensical, senseless, irresponsible, unthinking, ill-advised, ill-considered, inept, witless, damfool, unwise, injudicious, indiscreet, short-sighted;
inane, absurd, ludicrous, ridiculous, laughable, risible, fatuous, asinine, pointless, meaningless, futile, fruitless, mad, insane, lunatic;
informalcrazy, dopey, cracked, half-baked, cock-eyed, harebrained, nutty, potty, dotty, batty, derpy, barmy, gormless, cuckoo, loony, loopy, zany, screwy, off one's head, off one's trolley, out to lunch;

Humans are kinda like this:

« Last Edit: May 04, 2019, 04:24:11 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sleepy

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #386 on: May 03, 2019, 08:34:57 PM »
With all due respect AbruptSLR
FYI, he has only commented in the thread quoted below for some time now.

--
Wonderful v_m, adding a recent practical example of stupidity (on multiple levels) but still the most successful measurable mitigation attempt ever accomplished by Homo Sapiens.

.ons...

...Everyone in that business knows that CFC is still around and why it shouldn't be used, everyone.
The newer blends is a result of the refrigerant oligopoly defending patented blends.
There has been alternative refrigerants for as long as there has been heat pumps....


Shame they are using CFCs in foam in the building industry in China. Apparently they are very easy to export too, in the form of hydrogenated polyols.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44738952

Yeah, what's truly surprising (after decades...) is that the "experts" out there are still surprised, gobsmacked and shocked, that R11 is still in use and for sale. It's on frickin' youtube...

What's visible here is one nitrogen and one R22 canister, prior to that he used R11 to clean the pipes. All of it vented into the air.



Adding recent readings below and lastly a suitable image.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Juan C. García

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #387 on: May 04, 2019, 01:09:55 AM »
Could be applied to AGW:

Question: On your opinion, what is hurting Mexico the most: Ignorance or apathy?
Answer: I don't know and I don't care.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #388 on: May 29, 2019, 08:35:12 PM »
Stupidity might be the most charitable interpretation of EU's Common Agricultural Policy:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/28/european-commission-accused-of-deliberately-harming-climate-action

Climate deniers are the hysterical alarmists:
https://newrepublic.com/article/154014/climate-deniers-hysterical-alarmists
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 05:05:52 AM by Tom_Mazanec »

vox_mundi

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #389 on: June 27, 2019, 05:45:28 AM »
Relief from Stupidity...

Florida Towns Can No Longer Ban Residential Vegetable Gardens
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/florida-towns-can-no-longer-ban-residential-vegetable-gardens/

Florida towns that outlawed home vegetable gardens for "aesthetic purposes" can no longer do so starting July 1.

So says a new state law that comes after a couple in Miami Shores Village unsuccessfully contested in Florida's courts a $50 a day fine for growing vegetables in their front yard, as they'd done for years 

... Hermine Ricketts and her husband Tom Carroll fought City Hall in a case that wound its way up the state's court system, with judges consistently ruling against their money-saving and health-conscious venture.

After the Florida Supreme Court ruled in favor of Miami Shores' right to control design and landscaping standards, the couple replaced their vegetables with pink flamingos.



Their cause was not lost, however. State lawmakers proposed and passed legislation that effectively voids the court rulings, with Republican Senator Rob Bradley, who sponsored the bill, reportedly calling the village's action a "vast overreach."

The lawmaker noted the difficulty that many families experience getting fresh and affordable food, calling bans against vegetable and fruit gardens ridiculous.

A 600-square-foot garden that costs around $70 a year to cultivate can grow 300 pounds of fresh produce worth about $600 annually, the National Gardening Association estimates.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2019, 05:51:49 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #390 on: November 16, 2019, 05:39:10 PM »
Delhi Suffocates Under Toxic Smog But Millions Go Without Masks
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-delhi-suffocates-toxic-smog-millions.html

A thick grey smog choked New Delhi for the fifth day Saturday, adding to a mounting pollution health crisis, but retired naval commander Anil Charan is one of the vast majority of the city's 20 million inhabitants who do not wear a mask.

The smartly-dressed Charan was among shoppers in Delhi's upmarket Khan Market district browsing the luxury clothes and jewellery stores without a mask, seemingly oblivious to the risk.

Charan, wearing aviator sunglasses, said it did not fit his "rough and tough" image.

"I have been brought up in this kind of atmosphere, the smog and all, so I am kind of used to it. And being a naval officer I think if I wear a mask I will think I am a sissy," he said.

... "I know I am risking my health but I am not very comfortable wearing them (masks)," said Ritancia Cardoz, who works for a private company.

"I don't find it appealing," she told AFP.


Superman after flying thru Delhi

... “I’ll look like a fool if I wear a mask,” said R.L. Khattar, ­a ­92-year-old resident of a nearby ­lower-income neighborhood, prompting laughter from the others. Delhi’s bad air had given him a recurring cough and feelings of breathlessness. But a mask makes Khattar feel “claustrophobic.”

Standing nearby, Prem Gupta, 52, concurred. No one in his family wears a mask, including his children. “Pollution won’t stop if you wear a mask, so what’s the point?” he asked.

... and there are some who want them but can't afford them.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #391 on: November 16, 2019, 08:26:41 PM »
^^
"I never trust air that I can't see."
"Think of the saving in Tanning Lotion!"


Familiar mantras from smogbound Southern California in the 1970's, when only the Japanese wore masks.
Terry

Hefaistos

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #392 on: November 16, 2019, 11:49:21 PM »

... “I’ll look like a fool if I wear a mask,” said R.L. Khattar, ­a ­92-year-old resident of a nearby ­lower-income neighborhood, prompting laughter from the others. Delhi’s bad air had given him a recurring cough and feelings of breathlessness. But a mask makes Khattar feel “claustrophobic.”

Standing nearby, Prem Gupta, 52, concurred. No one in his family wears a mask, including his children. “Pollution won’t stop if you wear a mask, so what’s the point?” he asked.

... and there are some who want them but can't afford them.

Those simple masks don't help too much anyway, do they?
Yes, they take out some particles down to 2.5u (PM2.5)  or so, but none of the toxic gases. Most of smog is below 2.5u.
Maybe the help that simple masks offer is more of a psychological help.

morganism

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #393 on: July 29, 2021, 02:43:41 AM »
Early signs: Perceptual distortions in late-teens predict psychotic symptoms in mid-life

Lenzenweger found that subtle differences in perception during their late-teen years predicted the development of hallucinations, delusions, and, in some instances, psychosis later in life. These early perceptual distortions included a heightened awareness of sound or color, uncertainty about the boundaries of one’s body, feeling that the world around them is tilting, and similar experiences. "

https://www.binghamton.edu/news/story/3179/early-signs-perceptual-distortions-in-late-teens-predict-psychotic-symptoms-in-mid-life

jens

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #394 on: August 01, 2021, 06:01:58 PM »
When it is human stupidity that has caused climate change, why do so many think that humans will be able to avoid exceeding the 2C target?

Because humans are stupid enough to believe that humans can collectively transform into geniuses overnight and find "magical solutions" to solve issues. Only if said human has to look into the mirror and answer the question of "are you personally prepared to change your lifestyle?" - the answer is a "no". Only "magic" has to work, as long as humans themselves don't need to compromise in anything. :)

Actually on a more serious note one should ask what does "stupidity" mean after all. How does one define it? Personally I think it is related to "ego". And ego is in the end what creates all negative behavioral patterns - illusions, narcissism, denial, manipulation, greed, etc. It just depends on the person how deeply a person is controlled by its "ego" - on that front people obviously differ. So much about psychology for now. :)

NeilT

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #395 on: August 01, 2021, 08:22:19 PM »
Humans, when presented with the simple numbers In terms of just how much energy we use and where it comes from, tend to get the problem.

The issue comes with Kubler Ross.  They are still in denial and at the denial stage they still believe in technological "magic".

The energy companies work very hard to keep them in denial by challenging every accepted fact of AGW.  So long as their is a challenge to accepted facts of AGW, those people will remain in denial waiting for someone to produce said magic.

The issue is that with human nature, they will exit denial just before we hit real catastrophe and then it will be 100 years too late.

The simple genius of the Forrest Gump script.

Stupid is as stupid does.

Humans are great at it, then they look around for someone to blame.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

kassy

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #396 on: August 01, 2021, 09:00:03 PM »
Humans, when presented with the simple numbers In terms of just how much energy we use and where it comes from, tend to get the problem.

Just for fun could you calculate what would have happened if the whole earth would have had the same cars and houses you had over time? Could that have worked work?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Human Habitat Index

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There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

morganism

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #398 on: November 07, 2021, 08:57:52 PM »
What Collective Narcissism Does to Society

"Having a healthy social identity can have an immensely positive impact on well-being. Collective narcissists, though, are often more focused on out-group prejudice than in-group loyalty. In its most extreme form, group narcissism can fuel political radicalism and potentially even violence. But in everyday settings, too, it can keep groups from listening to one another, and lead them to reduce people on the “other side” to one-dimensional characters. The best way to avoid that is by teaching people how to be proud of their group—without obsessing over recognition.

Groups may differ in their narrative about why they are superior—they might believe that they’re the most moral, the most culturally sophisticated, the most talented, the most powerful, or the most protective of democratic values. They may think that their greatness is God’s will, or that they’ve earned it through exceptional suffering in the past. Regardless, collective narcissists are resentful of other groups, and hypersensitive to perceived intergroup threat. As a result, collective narcissism often breeds prejudice. In one study, for instance, participants in Poland who rated high in collective narcissism were more likely to hold anti-Semitic beliefs. In other research conducted on Americans, high collective-narcissism scores predicted negative attitudes toward Arab immigrants.

Collective narcissists tend to respond to the perceived threats of other groups in outsize, often aggressive ways. In Portugal, a sample of collective narcissists who perceived Germany as having a more important position than their nation in the European Union “rejoiced in the German economic crisis”—and supported “hostile actions” toward Germans. Meanwhile, group narcissists glorify positively valued in-group members and tend to overlook their moral transgressions. A recent study conducted in Poland, Britain, and the United States found that those high in collective narcissism were more likely to judge a group member’s action—such as a verbal altercation provoked by a pub customer—as moral if it served in-group interests.

But group members don’t always benefit from this thinking: Collective narcissists are hypervigilant about “enemies within,” members who, in their opinion, reflect negatively on the group. And ironically, some studies have suggested that collective narcissists are actually more likely to leave their group for personal gain, and to use in-group members as tools to advance their own goals.

When people think of narcissism, they typically conjure up the chest-thumping, boastful, grandiose narcissist. But psychologists, myself included, have identified a more vulnerable form of narcissism, involving a fragile, uncertain sense of self-worth, deeply steeped in shame and distrust, along with the typical antagonism and self-entitlement. In some countries, including the U.S., collective narcissism is more strongly correlated with grandiose narcissism—but overall, those scoring high in vulnerable narcissism are actually more likely to fall into collective-narcissistic thinking. Collective narcissists might be obsessed with receiving group recognition because, on a personal level, they feel deeply insecure about their own value and they desperately need validation. They might also be lacking in emotional resilience: Collective narcissism is associated with sensitivity to negative environmental stimuli and negative emotions, which could override prosocial instincts—especially toward out-group members."

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2021/11/group-narcissism/620632/?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4


morganism

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #399 on: April 20, 2022, 12:12:25 AM »
“They Are Such an Asshole”: Describing the Targets of a Common Insult Among English-Speakers in the United States

Results showed that “assholes” were perceived to be characterized by interpersonally relevant traits (i.e., low Agreeableness, high Anger). The consensus Five-Factor Model profile for target “assholes” was similar to expert profiles of psychopathic, antisocial, and narcissistic personality disorders. Exploratory analyses conducted on open-ended descriptions of nominated bothersome “asshole-related” behaviors revealed common themes including manipulation, aggression, irresponsibility, and entitlement."

https://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article/8/1/32552/120248/They-Are-Such-an-Asshole-Describing-the-Targets-of