ADS-IJIS 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: June poll

[Juan C. García]

This ADS Arctic Sea Ice Extent (ADS also known as IJIS, JAXA and NIPR) poll will run for 10 days. Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various ADS-IJIS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.

[Neven]

Thanks for continuing the poll, Juan!

I voted 'between 3.25 and 3.5 million km2'. Yes, 2016 has a big lead over 2012, but in the first half of June amazing weather conditions caused so much melting momentum that 2012 just kept going strong for the rest of the melting season. 2016 won't be seeing these amazing weather conditions in the coming 10 days, and so 2012 will probably catch up this month.

[Paddy]

Going for 3.0 to 3.25, based on a similar view of 2012's exceptionalism to Neven, modified by 2 considerations: the the ice likely being weaker after a very warm winter, and albedo on land and sea being very low as we enter peak insolation.

But really, anything from 2 million square km to 4.5 million square km wouldn't surprise me that much. There's a lot of time left between now and September.

[magnamentis]

nice to see regular polls, i opted for "Between 3.5 and 3.75 million km2" lowest without GAC, whether this will happen this year again is hidden in the stars and would mean a very new low of course but under "normal" circumstances i think that we shall see a new "regular" low but no outlier, while the regularity which this
year is and remains lowest and earliest in almost any context is an "outlier" by iteself

[Shared Humanity]

In a now annual tradition, I refuse to vote because I don't have a clue.

[Tor Bejnar]

This summer's Arctic weather will 'still' be required to provide a 2007- or 2012-like melt rate to beat 2012's record low extent (re Pettit's graphs).  Therefore, I'm moving my guess up a notch to 3-3.25 - a functional tie with 2012.  Slater's 50-day projection makes me wonder if I'm getting conservative in my old age. 

[seaicesailor]

Keeping it in 3.25 - 3.5 m km2

[jdallen]

Similarly bumped up one bucket to 3.0-3.25.  Think I may be erring on the conservative side however.

[gregcharles]

Yes, 2016 has a big lead over 2012, but in the first half of June amazing weather conditions caused so much melting momentum that 2012 just kept going strong for the rest of the melting season. 2016 won't be seeing these amazing weather conditions in the coming 10 days, and so 2012 will probably catch up this month.

If by catch up, you mean 2012 will cut into 2016's lead, then I agree. If you mean it will actually equal 2016 ... well, the lead is sitting at almost exactly 1 million sq km on June 3. With just 27 days to go, I think that's a bridge too far.

[AbruptSLR]

I bumped up my projection to 2.5 to 2.75 million sq km because La Nina conditions are developing slowly; but once they are more firmly established in two to three weeks, more warm air should advect into the Arctic, taking us below 2012.

[Juan C. García]

Thanks for continuing the poll, Juan!

Your welcome Neven! I’m glad to contribute, even that it has not been too much.

This is the forecast, if we take IJIS yesterday value and the drop is the average of 2007, 2011 and 2015.

Regarding my forecast for this month, I want to go back and see how it work my forecast of the last month. The real drop was a little less than the one I was anticipating on May 18th. On the other hand, I don´t like that the Arctic is having a lot of warm weather, especially at the Laptev Sea East Siberian and Laptev seas.

I am going to keep my forecast of 3.25-3.5, but I would say that I am still concerned that the Arctic could have a second great Arctic cyclone. Again, hope it will not have it.

The range 3.25-3.5 seems too bad news for 2016, so I hope it will not get worst.

[Neven]

If by catch up, you mean 2012 will cut into 2016's lead, then I agree. If you mean it will actually equal 2016 ... well, the lead is sitting at almost exactly 1 million sq km on June 3. With just 27 days to go, I think that's a bridge too far.

If this June is as slow as last year's it would be within reach, but I agree with you that 2012 probably won't catch up completely.

[AbruptSLR]

If by catch up, you mean 2012 will cut into 2016's lead, then I agree. If you mean it will actually equal 2016 ... well, the lead is sitting at almost exactly 1 million sq km on June 3. With just 27 days to go, I think that's a bridge too far.

If this June is as slow as last year's it would be within reach, but I agree with you that 2012 probably won't catch up completely.

Scribbler concurs that "… emerging weather conditions represent a seriously bad state for Arctic sea ice".

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/03/siberian-heatwave-wrecks-sea-ice-as-greenland-high-settles-in/

Extract: "In context, the combined severe record sea ice lows and emerging weather conditions represent a seriously bad state for Arctic sea ice. One with a high risk of continued further extreme losses and new daily record lows for at least the next seven days."

[Jim Pettit]

Thanks for continuing the poll, Juan!

I voted 'between 3.25 and 3.5 million km2'. Yes, 2016 has a big lead over 2012, but in the first half of June amazing weather conditions caused so much melting momentum that 2012 just kept going strong for the rest of the melting season. 2016 won't be seeing these amazing weather conditions in the coming 10 days, and so 2012 will probably catch up this month.

Couldn't agree more, and exactly what I've been saying. Extent loss has shallowed out of late, much as it did in 2015, during which May lost 30% more ice than did the cliff-less June. Extent has dropped less over the past two weeks than it did over the two weeks before that; it's dropped more in the past three weeks than it did the three weeks before that, and so on. So: I went with 3.74-4.0 million for the minimum, with the following EOM projections:

June: 8.3 M
July: 5.7 M
August: 4.1 M

[OSweetMrMath]

As always, I am making a prediction of the IJIS daily minimum based on my model of the NSIDC monthly minimum. We don't have actual data for the last two months, but I eyeballed the Charctic plot from the NSIDC to guess at what the monthly values would have been. Plugging those estimates into my model, I get 4.60 million sq km for the September monthly NSIDC extent. Comparing the NSIDC monthly extent to the IJIS daily minimum from previous years leads to a prediction of 4.0-4.25 million sq km.

This is one bucket lower than where I was last month. I was apparently the highest vote last month. We'll see if I'm still the highest vote this month.

[oren]

I kept my vote ate 3.00-3.25. It seems a tie with 2012 should be possible given the pervasive heat all around and the lead in area and extent providing albedo feedback.

[Tensor]

As I did last year, I'm using the eyeball method, and rolling my 20 sided die.  The GAC critically hits itself, so I don't think we'll beat 2012, leaving me at 3.25-3.50   

[coyoteyogi]

2.75-3.0 Somebody has to take the sub 3 plunge.

[DavidR]

Yes, 2016 has a big lead over 2012, but in the first half of June amazing weather conditions caused so much melting momentum that 2012 just kept going strong for the rest of the melting season. 2016 won't be seeing these amazing weather conditions in the coming 10 days, and so 2012 will probably catch up this month.

If by catch up, you mean 2012 will cut into 2016's lead, then I agree. If you mean it will actually equal 2016 ... well, the lead is sitting at almost exactly 1 million sq km on June 3. With just 27 days to go, I think that's a bridge too far.

There is a tendency to exaggerate the impact of the 2012 decline . While it was a record for both area and extent 2007, 2010,2011 and 2013 all had falls within 10% of 2012 for area. The extent drop was more exaggerated but  started from a high value on June 1st. 

An average drop in area since 2007 will see 2012 behind 2016 and only the two lowest drops in extent will see 2016 behind 2012.  With 100s of thousands of extra sq kms of open water every  day during June, the albedo effect combined with May 2016 being  warmer than 2012, should see 2016 stay  wel  ahead of 2012.

I'm firmly  in the record breaking year camp with 2-2.25.

[anotheramethyst]

In a now annual tradition, I refuse to vote because I don't have a clue.

Then use your vote to add weight to one of our highly esteemed members, by waiting for someone like Neven or Wipneus to vote, then agreeing with them you could think of yourself as supporting the opinions of our senior staff just a thought.  Choosing not to vote is an honorable option too, when you know you're outside your element. 

[Sebastian]

Early entries into this poll give an average of 3.05, quite a bit higher than the final average of last month's poll at 2.67. The result of a few slow days extentwise? Or is it because of the discussion of the exceptionality of 2012's summer? Or just different people voting in the early stages of a poll?

I'm in the 2012-was-exceptional camp, so I went for 3.5+ again.

[meddoc]

I voted 2,00- 2,25 M km2.
As with 2015 biggest factor will be bottom melt by the hot Arctic Waters.
Add a couple of black swans (winds, cyclones, storms heading northwards) & we' re already under 3 M km2.

[6roucho]

I stayed with 2-2.25 simply because I'm unconvinced that model extrapolations have much validity given changing conditions in the Arctic, and a low vote reflects my bet on where this enterprise is headed. I suspect the actual number is now completely in the hands of the weather, with all the results discussed here being possible, so any bet is a guess of what the weather will do.

[Sourabh]

Neven,

I noticed that you stopped mentioning CAPIE in your updates. Last month when you were on leave, I requested Wipneus to do that.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg76805.html#msg76805

I couldn't interpret the graph. If possible, could you compare CAPIE to see how bad or good this year is so far as compared to last few years? We are far ahead in terms of volume, area, extent. So, if we also maintain lead in CAPIE, I think we can break the record even if  weather remains in the middle (not too conducive, but also not too cold).

[Anne]

In a now annual tradition, I refuse to vote because I don't have a clue.

Then use your vote to add weight to one of our highly esteemed members, by waiting for someone like Neven or Wipneus to vote, then agreeing with them you could think of yourself as supporting the opinions of our senior staff just a thought.  Choosing not to vote is an honorable option too, when you know you're outside your element.

Has anyone done a comparative analysis of the prediction performance of our various contributors?
 

[abbottisgone]

2 .75 - 3.00

Someone said 7.42 by July 15 and so I took off an extra 4.5 and handed over a fistful of dollars 

I'm rich I tells ya!!

... No, basically I didn't like the fact it was said over in espens forum that increasing extent with falling area is never good! (I simply didn't have the heart to guess lower!!!)

[Neven]

I noticed that you stopped mentioning CAPIE in your updates. Last month when you were on leave, I requested Wipneus to do that.

I will try to have something for the next update.

[abbottisgone]

In a now annual tradition, I refuse to vote because I don't have a clue.

Then use your vote to add weight to one of our highly esteemed members, by waiting for someone like Neven or Wipneus to vote, then agreeing with them you could think of yourself as supporting the opinions of our senior staff just a thought.  Choosing not to vote is an honorable option too, when you know you're outside your element.

Has anyone done a comparative analysis of the prediction performance of our various contributors?
 

That is one stylish question 

[philiponfire]

beginning of June and about  60% of us are already of the opinion that the minimum will be either around or lower than 2012. that does not look good for the ice.
I went for 2.5 as I am of the opinion that the ice is already thin and vulnerable this year. The ESS fast ice is dark blue with melt ponds. the Kara is a slushy. The temperature in Churchill is well above freezing.  Baffin bay is another slushy and Greenland sea isn't any more likely to stop the rot. I do not see anywhere that is going to slow down this avalanche.

[Acts5v29]

In a now annual tradition, I refuse to vote because I don't have a clue.

A man after my own heart!

[Acts5v29]

I've plumped for 4-4.25 - more in hope than expectation.

You're the climate chappies, you tell me.

[magnamentis]

Then use your vote to add weight to one of our highly esteemed members, .......you could think of yourself as supporting the opinions of our senior staff

since this forum is about sharing thoughts, finding causes for problems and trying to ponder of solutions, please see the following under that aspect, not in any way as an offense or negativism, just a thought to consider :-)

are you aware how many decisions that were made in the past and ultimately lead to most of the problems, last but not least the ones we're dealing with here (GW) were made exactly that way, agree to "esteemed" leaders and supporting something or someone just because it's sounds nice to do so? this instead of thinking and having an own opinion based on facts, not worship? this member is totally in the right, doesn't feel fit to say something substantial and decides to say/do nothing and watch instead of choosing for the sake of
taking side or worship.

i know that many will understand this post wrong, this is not a denial of respect or anything like that, it was just an opportunity how "group dynamics" and the "I nead a leader syndrom" has put humanity as a whole and many individuals and smaller groups into deep trouble.

What made me think a lot whether i should write this at all is that you're totally right as to the respect some people and especially those you mentioned deserve and therefore agree 100% on that part, just that this
mechanism i mentioned above is a key factor, beside others of course, that ultimately leads to problems.

[Richard Rathbone]

4.25-4.5

Just when it really counts, central arctic temperatures have dropped back to normal values. I'd prefer to base it on melt pond data to how rapidly the 80N temperature is approaching 0, but I suspect when that comes out it will look 2015ish and hence I'm going with a 2015ish outcome.

[seaicesailor]

So ... I go up one level to 3.5 to 3.75 Mkm2. Not caring too much about the prediction itself, but I enjoy speculating a lot!
It seems the weather is going to be cold in the central Arctic (not so much in the peripheral seas) until mid June at least. This is going to protect the already well-preserved CAB ice (except for the Atlantic bite) in a crucial moment . If there is a delay of sun and warm temperatures within the CAB, it is really difficult that 2016 get really close to 2012.
Still this year should fall well below 2007-2015. To start with, the same cyclonic weather can make a mess out of the already broken MYI of the Pacific side. Also the few-weeks-early-spring-everywhere anomaly has to affect Arctic weather patterns one way or another.
If this year stays above 2015, I would think global warming can generate negative-feedback weather patterns in the Arctic. That'd be good food for climate scientists.
I can be sooo wrong but IMHO that is what this thread is all about : - )

[icefisher]

The CAB should remain largely untouched unless a long-lasting dipole gets going.  A summer dipole longer than 21 days would be a major game changer.  Without a dipole the cold pole will ensure that the CAA and multiyear ice north of Ellesmere, Baffin and Greenland will remain until next year.  Adding to this, small pieces of multi-year ice in the ESS, Chukchi, Foxe Basin and most of the CAB I arrive at 4.09M - 4.14M extent.  Slightly above 2007 and in third place behind 2012 and 2007.  Weather will be the deciding factor.  Should be very interesting!

[budmantis]

Considering the apparent slowdown in melt over the past week or so, I can see why most prognosticators are being cautious. Nevertheless, what has happened in the Beaufort this spring,  and preconditioning of the ice in May, and the overall fragile condition of the ice, I still think we will see a new record this year. 2.75 to 3.00 is the bracket I'm choosing, knowing in advance that if conditions stay as they are presently for June, July and most of August, we will not have a new record, which would actually make me and most everyone on this blog very happy!

[philiponfire]

dispersal at this time of year isn't a slow down, it is preconditioning the ice for more melting.

[Paddy]

I know I'm tempted to go up a bin...

[iceman]

There is a tendency to exaggerate the impact of the 2012 decline . While it was a record for both area and extent 2007, 2010,2011 and 2013 all had falls within 10% of 2012 for area. The extent drop was more exaggerated but  started from a high value on June 1st. 
   ....

But is this the best gauge?  2012 still looks like an outlier based on mininum values.  The cyclone's timing and path were nearly ideal to cause late losses.

With so many opposing considerations, I'll guess between 3.5 and 3.75

[slow wing]

Sticking with the 2.00-2.25x10^6 km^2 bin I chose in the May poll as I consider the situation and my comments still apply:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1535.msg77230.html#msg77230

There is more heat this year, on more vulnerable ice. As someone nicely put it, the early lead in melting should amplify. Soon the ice will be able to move in 3 of 4 directions: towards the Alaskan side, the Russian side or the Atlantic side - with plenty of heat to meet it in all 3 directions relative to previous years.

And it will tend to fracture more easily than in previous years, as is thinner and/or more rotten than in all but the most recent years. This will leave gaps (polynya) that will hasten the melt.

The Central Arctic basin has already reached zero degrees Celsius. Either sun or wind from now on will cause plenty of melting. The only weather that wouldn't bring a record or near-record low would be a greater than usual amount of relatively still cloudy conditions.

[Neven]

Well, I'm going up a bin to 3.5-3.75 million km2 before voting closes, not because of the slowdown in the rate of extent decrease per se, but rather because of the weather forecast for the next 7-10 days in this crucial period.

[Jim Pettit]

Well, I'm going up a bin to 3.5-3.75 million km2 before voting closes, not because of the slowdown in the rate of extent decrease per se, but rather because of the weather forecast for the next 7-10 days in this crucial period.

I'm standing firm at 3.75-4.0, both because of the forecast and the fact that we've seen--by a substantial margin--the lowest June month-to-date extent decrease of the past 10 years. By this point on the calendar, the average June has lost 530k, where this one has only dropped by 237k. By the 10th, 2012 was in free fall with 914k already vanished, or nearly four times the 2016 MTD total. That is, indeed, a meaningful anomaly, especially given that this is, as you stated, a crucial period.

[magnamentis]

Well, I'm going up a bin to 3.5-3.75 million km2 before voting closes,

Meeting Point LOL, standing firm there from day one :-) 

[Pmt111500]

I'll throw in a guess of exact tie with 2012  - guessing July is slow but late August abnormally fast.

[Richard Rathbone]

Well, I'm going up a bin to 3.5-3.75 million km2 before voting closes, not because of the slowdown in the rate of extent decrease per se, but rather because of the weather forecast for the next 7-10 days in this crucial period.

It would take a dire state of melt ponds in your Melt Pond May analysis to make me move up, and if that says not even at 13/14 level I'd be in the 5+ category but at the moment I'm guessing it will be like last years and 4.25ish is the place to be.

[musickna]

Despite the interesting early June slowdown, I see no reason to change my guess from that I made in May, namely between 2.5 and 2.75 million km2.

It's quite clear to me, after following years of observations and comment on the arctic here and elsewhere, that we are still in only the very earliest stages of understanding the melt phenomenon. It's a truly fascinating process.

[Feeltheburn]

I have been lurking for several months and decided to vote.  My background is I am an owner of a company that does R&D testing in the area of "green concrete".  That is, concrete that has a reduced CO2 footprint.  Unfortunately the industry is too entrenched to make any real changes until someday forced to, perhaps by government mandate.

I have been interested in the effects of CO2 on climate change, which is why I got involved in that company.

I am intrigued by the comments expressed on this board and have learned a lot.  Still getting up to speed on the jargon and the relationship between what is observed by satellites and the models that interpret the data.  I see a lot of graphs and charts but can't tell where the supporting data is.  Hopefully I will figure it out.

I am sorry I am an outlier, but my vote is 4.25-4.5 km2.  I can't say I have a clear reason other than there has been an unusually high amount of snow in the Sierra Nevadas in California.  Also there is a photo that has been posted showing some station in the Arctic.  I have seen comments for over a month stating that ice is falling apart.  Yet, the post a couple of days ago looks no different than the one about a month ago.  Also I see comments about melt having slowed considerably in June.  Thus, I am taking a conservative view on melting and don't see a record low coming this year.

 

[iceman]

I am sorry I am an outlier, but my vote is 4.25-4.5 km2. 

Outliers are the spice of statistics!
Either your guess will prove accurate, or you will learn (as I have, repeatedly) from others' better intuitions and model-based predictions.

[P-maker]

Just to keep it brief:

- Arctic average sea ice extent in May was 0.7 M sq kms below the long term trend line according to NSIDC
- NH snow area in May was some 0.7 M sq kms below the long term trend line according to Rutgers
- PIOMAS sea ice volume in May was some 1000  cu kms below the long term trend line
- Freezing Degree Days over the Arctic had accumulated to a level around 1000 K below normal towards the end of May
- Arctic Sea Ice was on average about 0.5 meter thinner than the longterm mean

I guess it’s good to keep those numbers in mind, when we go forward to a daily minimum in Sep below 2.5 M sq kms

[magnamentis]

I have been lurking for several months and decided to vote.  My background is I am an owner of a company that does R&D testing in the area of "green concrete".  That is, concrete that has a reduced CO2 footprint.  Unfortunately the industry is too entrenched to make any real changes until someday forced to, perhaps by government mandate.

I have been interested in the effects of CO2 on climate change, which is why I got involved in that company.

I am intrigued by the comments expressed on this board and have learned a lot.  Still getting up to speed on the jargon and the relationship between what is observed by satellites and the models that interpret the data.  I see a lot of graphs and charts but can't tell where the supporting data is.  Hopefully I will figure it out.

I am sorry I am an outlier, but my vote is 4.25-4.5 km2.  I can't say I have a clear reason other than there has been an unusually high amount of snow in the Sierra Nevadas in California.  Also there is a photo that has been posted showing some station in the Arctic.  I have seen comments for over a month stating that ice is falling apart.  Yet, the post a couple of days ago looks no different than the one about a month ago.  Also I see comments about melt having slowed considerably in June.  Thus, I am taking a conservative view on melting and don't see a record low coming this year.

outlier or not, chance that you will be spot on is absolutely intact, after all this is a bit for fun and as well to learn which of the many factors will more often make the difference, which is why it's a good thing to hear all the various points of views and interesting to see how things develop.

my key argument is and was that there is a huge amount of accumulated energy (heat so to say) in the system which is showing now and has been from day one of the entire year with about 1 or 2 days exception, and we have again seen the earliest above zero 80N and above.

generally i think that the over all conditions will once reach a state that bad weather will conserve the heat and nice weather will add to heat (in summer) and therefore it won't matter anymore, that would be the definition of "climate" change as compared to weather patterns, let's see.