The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CraigsIsland]

there is also that companion blob currently over the dominican republic which is tagging along with matthew, curious to see if it will join the hurricane

Given name is "Nicole"

[budmantis]

The latest from GFDL.

[CraigsIsland]

I wonder how many people live within impact zones. brb.

[Sigmetnow]

Haiti Could Be Dealing with Matthew’s Impacts for Years to Come

Haiti is a cruel case where the dollar loss from Matthew might not be high simply because the country is already incredibly poor. But a lower price tag only masks the true devastation likely to be felt by millions.

“When a lot of people live with a low baseline, with few investments or assets, it can look like they didn't really suffer a lot of damage,” Amir Jina, an economist who studies development at the University of Chicago, said. “Essentially, ‘when you've got nothing, you've got nothing left to lose.’”
...
Nearly 40 percent of Haitians work in agriculture, largely as subsistence farmers. Haiti has dealt with drought over the past few years, due in part to El Niño, leaving farmers with poor harvests and increasing food insecurity.

Denis McClean, a spokesperson for UNISDR, said a third of Haiti’s population is already dealing with food shortages due to the drought and Matthew could compound that by providing too much of a good thing. The storm has the potential to drop up to 40 inches of rain in Haiti’s Tiburon region, scouring topsoil of nutrients.

That’s an ongoing concern for the country, where deforestation has left only 2 percent of its original forests standing.

http://wxshift.com/news/haiti-could-be-dealing-with-matthews-impacts-for-years-to-come

[Jim Hunt]

there is also that companion blob currently over the dominican republic which is tagging along with matthew, curious to see if it will join the hurricane

Given name is "Nicole"

Nicole isn't over the Dominican Republic though CI.

[Lord M Vader]

ECMWF 12z op forecast is a real bizarre solution if it verfies by having Matthew to make a "Jeanne" as of 2004 i.e looping back to east Florida and into the GOM.

It clearly will be a very worrisome week for the people in US!

A strange oddity is that this is the third time in a row as a big hurricane may have some at impact the presidential election in US. Remember Gustav and Ike in 2008, Isaac and Sandy in 2012?

[Archimid]

"By late this century, models, on average, project a slight decrease in the annual number of tropical cyclones, but an increase in the number of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes."

From here:http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-hurricanes

That is exactly what we are seeing. Less total hurricanes, but of those more cat 4 and 5. It is my speculation that in a few year a cat 6 will need to be added.

[Sigmetnow]

"In South Carolina, Gov. Nikki Haley said that starting at 3 p.m. Wednesday they may begin evacuating 'a million-plus people' from the historic city of Charleston and other coastal communities."
   Hurricane Matthew Expected to Barrel to Florida, the Carolinas
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hurricane-matthew-expected-barrel-florida-carolinas-n659396

Eric Holthaus: "The forecast for Matthew gets *very* uncertain north of NC & beyond Friday/Saturday. Could go out to sea or trek up the entire coast.
   One possibility: #Matthew could be a version of a worst-case East Coast scenario: Cat 3+, hugging the Gulf Stream, right up the coast.
   Another possibility: #Matthew shoots straight out to sea after impacting FL to NC as a Cat 3+ hurricane.
   Another possibility: #Matthew loops back around after hitting FL as a Cat 3+ and makes a second landfall a few days later.
   Bottom line:  Matthew may be among worst hurricanes in U.S. history, or could stay just offshore. We don’t know, so best to prepare."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/783390444759552001

[CraigsIsland]

there is also that companion blob currently over the dominican republic which is tagging along with matthew, curious to see if it will join the hurricane

Given name is "Nicole"

Nicole isn't over the Dominican Republic though CI.

going back to what Mati might've been talking about - I think that was still considered part of Matthew.

I was kneejerking my thoughts into talking about this one:

[budmantis]

The 5PM update from the NHC. GFDL hasn't updated yet.

[budmantis]

there is also that companion blob currently over the dominican republic which is tagging along with matthew, curious to see if it will join the hurricane

That "blob" has been visible for the past two or three days. I would say it's part of Matthew but it stays somewhat separate, never wrapping around the center. Compare with the satellite image upthread, reply #133, dated yesterday showing a much larger area of convection.

[budmantis]

The latest from GFDL. Increasingly likely there will a Florida landfall.

[Sigmetnow]

Satellite animation at the link.

Philip Klotzbach: #Matthew is now longest-lasting Cat. 4-5 in Atlantic on record during October (96 hrs). Prev record 78 hrs (Mitch & Wilma)....
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783420439649394688

[budmantis]

Satellite image shows Matthew making landfall on eastern tip of Cuba. T.S. Nicole is seen in upper right hand corner.

[budmantis]

Here's the 11PM update from NHC and the latest from GFDL, as well as the latest satellite image of Matthew. Max. sustained winds are down to 130mph, which is cat 3 as far as I know. Moving north at 8mph. The likelihood of a landfall in Florida has increased. Enough about Florida though, the Bahamas are going to get hammered by this storm. Also, in the upper right hand corner is T.S. Nicole, showing a fair amount of wind shear.

[budmantis]

From the Nat'l Weather Service, this is what the central part of the Florida peninsula looks like in terms of watches and warnings.

This map was not as descriptive as I thought it would be. Here's the legend:

Pink denotes a hurricane watch
Red denotes a hurricane warning
Carmine denotes tropical storm watch
Rusty red denotes tropical storm warning
Cream denotes hurricane local statement
Gray denotes hazardous weather conditions not related to the Hurricane

[Darvince]

Now when the anti-AGW people come crawling out of the woodwork to say that it has nothing to do with global warming, show them this track... wtf...

If that verifies, I think my jaw will drop to the floor.

[budmantis]

Well Darvince I think if that happens, I might end up moving back to New Hampshire! Here's the 2AM update from the NHC, along with the latest GFDL and satellite image. Max. sustained winds down to 125mph, with barometric pressure rising a bit. Still heading north at 8 mph. So far in my part of Florida, the impact will still remain minimal, but if the track heads further west? Stay tuned Floridians!

[Hefaistos]

Can this work?
"seeding hurricanes with smoke particles could lower wind speeds enough to mitigate their destructive potential."

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14988-invention-hurricane-pacifier/

[budmantis]

The 8AM update from the NHC, and GFDL. The forecast for rain accumulation in Florida was a little surprising to me. I expected at least some rain in the western part of the peninsula.  North of Florida, there's a big change in the expected track from yesterday, as the storm is now projected to take a sharp turn to the east.

[Tor Bejnar]

I finally searched for satellite images of Category 1 Hurricane Hermine coming ashore (and knocking my power out and a couple trees across my driveway, etc., etc.) on September 2nd.

The inner bands of the hurricane with a 35-nautical-mile/40-mile/65-km wide eye  reached my home (on the map, a little below the "al" in "Tallahassee" about 2 am (first attached still) and the Capital Building (the "+" by Tallahassee) was in it from about 3 o'clock to 3:30 (second attached still).  Does this "count" as Tallahassee being "hit" by the hurricane?  By the way, I slept through all this!  (The trees fell around 10 o'clock the previous evening, and I did hear them crash and then thud!)

[Jim Hunt]

I'm starting to get messages from organisations that I've supported in the past, which are on the ground in Haiti:

This one's from ShelterBox:

Hurricane Matthew is currently tearing through the Caribbean, destroying homes and communities in its path.

The category 4 storm hit Haiti with 145mph winds and torrential rains. It is the most powerful storm to affect the island in more than 50 years.
 
Haiti is one of the world's poorest countries and is only just starting to recover from the catastrophic earthquake. Many homes are made from flimsy materials that can't withstand extreme weather.

The level of damage is not yet know, as some parts of the country are totally cut off, with no means of communication, but initial reports suggest that at least 10,000 people are without proper shelter.

This one's from the Solar Electric Light Fund:

Dear Friends,
                   
Since Hurricane Matthew made landfall in Haiti on Tuesday morning, reports of devastation in the country continue to mount.  So far, the Solar Electric Light Fund has received indications that the base yard of the new micro-grid that was installed on Haiti's Southwest Coast last year has been flooded, and distribution lines are likely to have been seriously damaged.  We are also concerned about many of the 12 health centers where SELF installed critical solar power systems; many are located directly on the coast that has experienced heavy flooding and wind damage.
 
With a loss of communication and impassable roads in remote areas, it will take time to assess the full extent of the damage to all of the solar electricity projects SELF has installed.  Our greatest concern is that the ability of the flood victims to recover will be seriously hampered by their lack of access to electricity.  Please keep our Haitian partners and friends in your thoughts as they face yet another disaster.
 
As we receive news, we will provide further updates.

Sincerely,

Robert A. Freling
Executive Director

[Jim Hunt]

The latest news from Haiti, and the latest forecasts:

http://econnexus.org/hurricane-matthew-aims-at-haiti/#comment-502884

[mati]

matthew is going nuts, may loop/de/loop and run over miami heading to the gulf

[budmantis]

matthew is going nuts, may loop/de/loop and run over miami heading to the gulf

You can say that again! Here's the latest (5PM) update from NHC. Darvince (reply #166) showed an animation doing exactly that.

[Sigmetnow]

NWS Weather Prediction Center:  NWS Weather Prediction Center:  Tight precip gradient associated w/ #Matthew along coast. Small shifts in track will lead to big changes in rain amounts & other impacts.
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/783771083547746304

[Sigmetnow]

Hurricane Wilma, 2005.  Link has a satellite image.

Eric Fisher:  Tomorrow makes 4,000 days since the last MAJOR (Cat 3+) hurricane made landfall in the U.S. No iPhones, no Twitter, barely even FB then.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/783765336721981440

[oren]

matthew is going nuts, may loop/de/loop and run over miami heading to the gulf

You can say that again! Here's the latest (5PM) update from NHC. Darvince (reply #166) showed an animation doing exactly that.

Years of watching hurricanes, and I've never seen any projected path like that.

[bligh8]

Of course Lat-Lon vary, but this idea of a hurricane looping back over its track is not a unheard of thing. I knew of one & checked just a few more years. In  1967 two did this, one of which interfered with an international sailing race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1965_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:1965_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:1967_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:1900_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

[Sigmetnow]

Hurricane Matthew Is Florida’s Worst-Case Scenario
Fueled by a record-warm ocean, Matthew is a storm unlike any yet seen in some parts of the Sunshine State.

Hurricane Matthew is heading straight for Florida, but the storm has already made its place in the history books.

Since weather records began in 1851, no hurricane of Matthew’s predicted strength (Category 4, with sustained winds of at least 135 mph that the National Hurricane Center labels as “catastrophic”) has ever made landfall in Florida north of West Palm Beach. That streak is likely to end in a big way on Thursday.

https://psmag.com/hurricane-matthew-is-floridas-worst-case-scenario-61a8a36f7a04

[budmantis]

I agree that the projected track is not necessarily unprecedented, but this one is stunning for sure. Also, Matthew still may not make landfall in Florida, but it will be damned close and more than likely it will make landfall. I live in eastern Pasco county and we have a T.S. watch in effect. Today was decision day as to what we should do. Being much closer to the west coast than the east, we decided to stay put, but if the actual storm track is fifty miles further west, we may be in for some difficulty. If it follows the current forecast (11PM update), we are expecting one to two inches of rain, and perhaps a 50% chance of T.S. force winds.

When my better half and I decided to move to Florida three years ago, I checked the history of tropical cyclone tracks and we decided to avoid being too close to either coasts. Sure it takes longer to get to the beaches, but we avoided a lot of congestion as well as worries about storm surges and the like.

In the nearly three years we've been here, this storm is definitely the most threatening so far.

[budmantis]

From CNN: Mass evacuations ordered.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/05/us/hurricane-matthew-florida-carolinas/index.html

[budmantis]

Here's the 2AM update from the NHC, along with maps for rainfall, and wind. Also a map showing current watches/warnings; west Florida has T.S. watches, central Florida has T.S. warnings and east Florida has hurricane warnings. It's going to be a close one! If Matthew ends up looping back, it could make landfall in Florida twice. Last satellite image shows Matthew re-intensifying. Also a little bit to the east is Nicole.

[budmantis]

Had to add this map on a separate post.

[Jim Hunt]

26 fatalities so far:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/hurricane-matthew-kills-11-slams-bahamas-161005154549784.html

ECMWF seems to be coming around to the "loopback" concept. It's not showing a 2nd landfall though. Latest NHC track:

[budmantis]

The 8AM NHC update. Satellite image shows T.S. Nicole and disturbance #1 in addition to Matthew.

[budmantis]

A somewhat better view of Matthew and where it's heading.

[budmantis]

The latest ensemble forecasts from GFDL.

[Sigmetnow]

NWS:  Hurricane Matthew could render areas 'uninhabitable for weeks'

"Remember Storm Surge graphics depict STILL water heights, as though you were in your swimming pool (think neck deep in the pool)," the NWS said in a briefing issued Thursday morning. "Unlike your pool a hurricane has large wave action on top of the surge and when those waves impact the beaches and dunes that water 'runs up' or put another way it moves inland a considerable distance.

"So we are looking at water 4 to 8 feet deep with large waves on it! Imagine [a] 6-foot[-tall] person, water up to top of [their] head, hit by 20 foot breakers!"

http://mashable.com/2016/10/06/nws-hurricane-matthew-uninhabitable/

[mati]

sooo gfs has matthew heading back and hitting Yucatan? crazy

[Sigmetnow]

Gary Szatkowski is the Mt. Holly, New Jersey meteorologist who begged people to evacuate for Superstorm Sandy, even giving his phone number so people could call him afterward to complain if they wanted.  At least they would be alive to do so, he said at the time.

MLLW is Mean Lower Low Water.

Gary Szatkowski: You have to go exploring into details of @NHC_Atlantic advisory, but you'll find up to 9 feet of storm surge inundation being forecast.
   Looking at east coast Florida tide gages, 9' of inundation looks to be around 13 to 14 feet MLLW.
   And if 13 to 14 feet MLLW sounds familiar, during Hurricane/Superstorm #Sandy, the gage at Sandy Hook NJ reached 14.4' MLLW.
   Bottom line is that portions of Florida east coast could see storm surge rivaling #Sandy in terms of magnitude if worst case scenario occurs
   So folks along East coast of Florida should NOT be using personal experience as a guide for #Matthew.
   If worst case scenario occurs, #Matthew winds and storm surge will be beyond your personal experience.
   If you stay in #Matthew evacuation zone, it will likely be one of worst decisions of your life. May also be last decision you'll ever make.
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/784027843097309189

[AbruptSLR]

The linked Climate Central article has nice graphics of projected storm surge flooding from Matthew in Florida:

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/hurricane-matthews-storm-surge-potential-20767

[Sigmetnow]

Gets worse:  ECMWF 00z deepens Matthew to 930 mb in next 18-hours prior to landfall *south* of previous solutions [between] West Palm Beach & Ft Pierce
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/783913916053196801

Florida Governor Rick Scott: Based on the current forecast, the heights of storm surge will be above ground.  Waves will be crashing on roofs. Homes will be destroyed.
https://twitter.com/flgovscott/status/784038002939002880

Steve Seman: Don't mess with #Matthew. Storm total energy is roughly double that of Hurricane Andrew for comparison. #HurricaneMatthew #flwx
https://twitter.com/steveseman/status/784046413483159553

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-will-deal-a-devastating-blow-to-the-florida-coast/

The NWS office in Melbourne [Florida] is using very strong wording to inform people that this is not a storm to take lightly:

    - STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF
      AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE
      GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS
      MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.
    - NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
      ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
    - MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
      OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
      ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
    - WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-will-deal-a-devastating-blow-to-the-florida-coast/

[Sigmetnow]

Detailed examination of historical and potential Hurricane Matthew storm surge.

Matthew to Strike Florida With Storm Surge after Devastating Cuba and the Bahamas

Regardless of Matthew's precise track, highest storm surge levels should occur north of Sebastian Inlet, which would include the cities of Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, and the entire Georgia Coast (according to NHC advisory).

http://wxshift.com/news/blog/matthew-to-strike-florida-with-storm-surge

[Sigmetnow]

Constantly refreshing radar loop of Hurricane Matthew @weatherbell
Last 30-minutes:  http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/florida_radar.gif
Last 4-hours:  http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/florida_radar_long.gif

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/784062492863496192

[budmantis]

Great graphics Sig and ASLR. Proof sufficient to convince the most ardent diehard to get out of Dodge. Latest from NHC.

[Jim Hunt]

Storm surge map plus mandatory evacuation orders for Florida:

http://econnexus.org/hurricane-matthews-storm-surge-threatens-florida/

[AbruptSLR]

The following link provides recent Windytv model forecasts, confirming that as of 6am to 10am Thursday Matthew was close to Miami:

https://www.windyty.com/?37.811,-122.301,6

[Sigmetnow]

Counting just the homes, and only from flooding, not wind -- which could reach 125 mph in places.

Hurricane Matthew could inflict $200 billion in damage to coastal homes
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-could-inflict-200-billion-in-damage-to-coastal-homes.html

[Sigmetnow]

1) "As of 12pm EDT, no more augmented observations from West Palm Beach as weather observer is leaving. You're running out of time to leave."

2) "A model from the University of Michigan shows the potential for large percentages of Florida’s east coast to lose power – with the highest values near the coast."

3) "ECMWF forecasting #seas of close to 40ft near #WestPalmBeach #Florida early Fri. ~2AM. Awesome graphic via Windytv #Hurricane #Matthew"