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Author Topic: Albedo-Warming Potential  (Read 20716 times)

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #50 on: January 17, 2017, 06:31:39 PM »
So far I've only calculated anomaly values of the Albedo-Warming Potential (AWP). This is great when comparing individual years against each other, but it doesn't directly show us which regions contribute most to the overall warming. My first calculation with absolute values are for 2016. On the cumulative map you can see that the southern Beaufort Sea had higher AWP then the always open ocean around Svalbard. It's more southern latitude is more significant then ice free conditions during the first month of the astronomical summer.

The daily animations are great to get a feeling for solar intensity. Let me know how useful you find the absolute AWP.

Link for daily animations(loads 30MB, not great for mobile users)
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/project-description/absolute-values


Some details
Snow/Ice energy absorption is approximated to 20% of that of water
Cumulative values saturate at 1200 kwh/m2 (55N)
Daily values saturate at 8kwh/m2 (60N) on 21st June
The average values are calculated over all ocean pixels and are not very relevant.

Although the solar radiation on top of the atmosphere near the north pole is highest on earth on 21st June, not all of it makes it to the surface. Due to the low solar angle the atmosphere absorbs/reflects more of the incoming radiation and the surface radiation is slightly lower then further south. This must be considered when accessing the albedo effect. (It is not a total radiation balance)

jdallen

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #51 on: January 17, 2017, 06:38:44 PM »
Unsurprisingly, the Bering and Barents stand out as troubling, though parts of the Beaufort may be as well.

The Barents warming potential far and away strikes me as the most dangerous change... And this year's freezing season may be further proof of it.
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Pi26

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #52 on: January 18, 2017, 08:10:02 AM »
Thanks Tealight, for me your AWP-image is the best arctic overview.
But You should additional show the numbers of Albedo-Melting-Potential in meters of ice -  would be 1/60 of Kwh numbers?
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 08:15:44 AM by Pi26 »

Rob Dekker

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #53 on: January 21, 2017, 09:30:17 AM »
Tealight, your work received special attention in the SIPN post-season report :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/post-season

With two paragraphs, some graphics, and some pretty intelligent responses. Stuff like this :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.

Looking forward to your reply on that assessment, and keep up the great work you are doing !

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #54 on: January 21, 2017, 02:22:28 PM »
Tealight - I can only repeat Rob's sentiments. Well done.

However, may I make a small suggestion as regards your section on Freezing Degree Days. This section begins with the text...

The "Freezing Degree Days" (FDD) is a different quantification of average temperature. It combines the absolute temperature (2m) below the freezing point with the duration of the cold period.

Example:
1. Day: average Temp: -3°C
2. Day: average Temp: -5°C
3. Day: average Temp: -7°C
Total: 15°C


I may be indulging in a spot of pedantry, but the term "absolute temperature" is normally only used when one is referring to a temperature measured in Kelvin. Also, it can be helpful to a reader if one makes it very clear when one is talking about the difference between two temperatures, rather than an actual temperature. A technique for doing this is to use "3 Celsius degrees" to refer to the difference between two temperatures, and only use "minus 3 degrees Celsius" when referring to an actual temperature.

An alternative form of words could be something like...

"The "Freezing Degree Days" (FDD) is a different quantification of average temperature. Sea water typically freezes at around -1.8°C, and the "Freezing Degree" aspect refers to the amount by which  the average daily temperature (measured at a height of 2 metres above the surface) is beneath this benchmark. The cumulative FDD is simply the summation of each of these daily differences. It thus combines the temperatures below the freezing point with the duration of the cold period.

Example:
Day 1 average Temp = -3°C; Temp below freezing = 1.2 Celsius degrees
Day 2 average Temp = -5°C; Temp below freezing = 3.2 Celsius degrees
Day 3 average Temp = -7°C; Temp below freezing = 5.2 Celsius degrees

Cumulative FDD after 3 days = (1.2 + 3.2 + 5.2) = 9.6 Freezing Degree Days


(NB I am quite familiar with the NSIDC section on thermodynamic processes, as I helped edit it about 5 or 6 years ago.)

If you have not seen it already, you might be interested in this PNAS article on the observational determination of albedo decrease...

http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3322.full

On a lighter note, for your amusement, you may also want to have a look at this denialist article from about 11 years ago. The scientific rigour used in the analysis perhaps leaves a little to be desired.

http://www.warwickhughes.com/cool/cool13.htm
« Last Edit: January 21, 2017, 02:28:59 PM by Bill Fothergill »

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #55 on: January 21, 2017, 07:23:40 PM »
Tealight, your work received special attention in the SIPN post-season report :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/post-season

With two paragraphs, some graphics, and some pretty intelligent responses. Stuff like this :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.

Looking forward to your reply on that assessment, and keep up the great work you are doing !

Well of course it received special attention. After all i volunteered to be part of the Action Team and offered my calculation to be included in the meltseason review. But my main intend to join the Action team was to promote other forcasting metrics besides extent and highlight the very low compactness of last years melting season. This is an issue we discussed heavily on the forum its time for professionals to consider other metrics than extent too. I feel with these two main inputs the SIPN if better prepared for the future. My participation is the reason why I put my real name on my maps and graphs. For scientific publications it's more appropiate. Under "Report Credits" I'm mentioned as an Action Team Member.

Quote
Action Team Members:
Gisele Arruda; Oxford Brookes University.
Ed Blockley; Polar Climate Group, Met Office Hadley Centre.
Frank Kauker; Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research.
Alek Petty; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and University of Maryland.
François Massonnet; Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Brussels and Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3, Barcelona, Spain).
Nico Sun; CryosphereComputing.

With 25 years  I'm still at the beginning of my career, unlike most of the forum members. Maybe being part of the report could help me with my future endeavours.

@Bill Fothergill
I'm not really happy with the description and calculation of FDD myself, but we would need to discuss it in another thread. There are specific reasons why I created it as I did.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2017, 12:08:02 AM by Tealight »

Rob Dekker

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #56 on: January 22, 2017, 09:16:30 AM »
That's nice, Tealight.
I am sure that you will obtain a decent job, given your commitment to science and your bold stand on issues. These are valuable traits, which are appreciated in the commercial world.

But I was asking specifically about your response to this comment in the SIPN report :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2017, 09:23:51 AM by Rob Dekker »

DrTskoul

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #57 on: January 22, 2017, 03:28:17 PM »
That's nice, Tealight.
I am sure that you will obtain a decent job, given your commitment to science and your bold stand on issues. These are valuable traits, which are appreciated in the commercial world.

But I was asking specifically about your response to this comment in the SIPN report :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.

The most important thing is natural curiosity and aptitude in learning new things.... Which he has amply displaued...
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Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #58 on: January 23, 2017, 12:36:45 AM »
But I was asking specifically about your response to this comment in the SIPN report :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.

This section is partly my own work and I've know this exact part for over a month (The majority of the report was written in November and December. In January we did mostly polishing work). What do you expect me to reply to myself? It is just a much better wording then what I said in May 2016 on the "Quantifying albedo effect" thread.

Quote
...The model doesn't calculate if the energy is used for melting more ice or if it increases water temperature which delays refreezing and limits ice thickening in winter

Of course I'm happy that my model encouraged the SIPN network to consider forecasting fall sea ice concentrations as well. The cumulative AWP is good at showing the rough regions for low fall sea ice concentration, but there needs to be a forcing component. The Beaufort Gyre for example rotated all of the Beaufort anomalies clockwise.


ktonine

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #59 on: January 24, 2017, 03:56:27 PM »
Tealight, your work received special attention in the SIPN post-season report :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/post-season

Yes, Tealight, congratulations on work well done :)

rboyd

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #60 on: January 28, 2017, 08:38:12 PM »
This paper on the impact of an ice free Arctic in September got mentioned in the Scribbler comments section. It assumes a worst case of 2040 as the date for an ice-free September, with no deterioration after that, which leads to a 50% cut in the global carbon budget for a 2 degree temperature rise (including overshoot and negative emissions).

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000429/full

I am not a climate scientist, but their assumptions of (i) 2040 as the earliest possible date for an ice-free September; (ii) no worsening due to feedback - e.g. August becoming ice free; and (iii) the heat imbalance assumptions seem to be a tad conservative. If I understand the paper correctly, less conservative assumptions could more than wipe out the carbon budget. Comments from more qualified individuals would be welcome.

I do have training as an economist, and their assumptions of the ability to ramp up a fossil fuel replacement infrastructure with no bottlenecks or delays as the timeframe shrinks and scale increases means that they very significantly underestimate the costs involved. Such "frictionless" models are the standard unfortunately for the Integrated Climate Models.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #61 on: January 29, 2017, 02:14:24 AM »
This paper on the impact of an ice free Arctic in September got mentioned in the Scribbler comments section. It assumes a worst case of 2040 as the date for an ice-free September, with no deterioration after that, which leads to a 50% cut in the global carbon budget for a 2 degree temperature rise (including overshoot and negative emissions).

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000429/full

I am not a climate scientist, but their assumptions of (i) 2040 as the earliest possible date for an ice-free September; (ii) no worsening due to feedback - e.g. August becoming ice free; and (iii) the heat imbalance assumptions seem to be a tad conservative. If I understand the paper correctly, less conservative assumptions could more than wipe out the carbon budget. Comments from more qualified individuals would be welcome.

I do have training as an economist, and their assumptions of the ability to ramp up a fossil fuel replacement infrastructure with no bottlenecks or delays as the timeframe shrinks and scale increases means that they very significantly underestimate the costs involved. Such "frictionless" models are the standard unfortunately for the Integrated Climate Models.

Any paper that only considers carbon emmisions will fail to predict the current Arctic warming trend. Especially this and last years warming is driven by heat and moisture import from lower latitudes. Combined with low albedo in spring these effects have far more influence than CO2.

Regarding the CO2 emissions scenario projecting a decline by mid-century. This is wishful thinking even if we eliminate all fossil fuel burning. Humans have been emitting CO2 and CH4 for over 8000 years due to agriculture. The increased land use (at least in Australia and America) and intensity of agriculture since the industrial revolution should at least keep the CO2 levels at a constant high level.

I'd suggest this presentation from the American Geophysical Union (AGU) for a more detailed view on past emissions:

rboyd

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #62 on: January 31, 2017, 07:11:51 PM »
Thank you Tealight. I am amazed by the amount of inertia in the general scientific community with respect to actual events in the Arctic. Given the albedo potential, the implications could completely upend the current climate policy assumptions.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #63 on: January 31, 2017, 07:31:14 PM »
I think Mother N. is taking over our role of placing GHG aloft?

Albedo flip has fed this change by allowing ever earlier exposure of the northern permafrost/soils to the sun as ( increased?) snow ablates ever earlier.

Not only does the loss of Sea ice impact temps 1,500km away surely the early loss of snow impacts temps in a similar way?

The ever earlier loss of snow cover ( and its albedo) since the turn of the Century has increased melt forcing across the Arctic Sea ice so increasing the albedo impact but also a double whammy for the already warmed Northern lands. The run of record high temps on land areas around the Arctic Basin is no 'fluke'.

I believe we are now seeing yearly CO2 reaching record highs, even as we try and reduce our imputs, because of the warming, ongoing, across the north. This is a self reinforcing feedback loop which will remove man's CO2 emissions from the equation and lead to continued warming well beyond 2c!
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Steven

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #64 on: March 01, 2017, 05:00:57 PM »
New paper by Y. Zhan and R. Davies:

September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation

http://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/1.4975531

Abstract:
Quote
A significant three-month lag correlation between June top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation (RSR) and the subsequent September sea-ice extent (SIE) is found within the Arctic, and the predictability of September SIE is examined by both satellite observations and reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficient between de-trended June RSR and September SIE reaches up to 0.88 for MISR, and the forecast skill of 0.36 using MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset is similar to or better than complex prediction models. Results confirm the particular importance of the early summer surface energy budget and help to explain the abrupt declines of September SIE in the past decade (2007, 2012, 2015).




Buddy

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #65 on: March 01, 2017, 06:06:14 PM »
Quote
September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation

For some of the more "scientifically inclined"....I have a question:

What is PRECISELY meant by "top of the atmosphere reflected solar radiation (RSR)?"

Is it:

A)  Amount of solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere"?
B)  Amount of solar radiation FROM the top of the atmosphere?
C)  Other...

A non-scientific inquiring mind would like to know.... :)
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Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #66 on: March 01, 2017, 07:19:43 PM »
Quote
September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation

For some of the more "scientifically inclined"....I have a question:

What is PRECISELY meant by "top of the atmosphere reflected solar radiation (RSR)?"

Is it:

A)  Amount of solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere"?
B)  Amount of solar radiation FROM the top of the atmosphere?
C)  Other...

A non-scientific inquiring mind would like to know.... :)

C)  Amount of reflected solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere" (measured by satellites)

This is affected by many metrics like snow cover, sea ice, melt ponds and cloud cover. The more solar radiation is reflected from the earth the less energy is absorbed.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2017, 08:37:34 PM by Tealight »

Buddy

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #67 on: March 01, 2017, 08:04:31 PM »
Quote
C)  Amount of reflected solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere" (measured by satellites)

Thanks....I assumed as much....but I don't like to assume.

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Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #68 on: March 24, 2017, 11:25:44 PM »
I prepared the daily updates of my AWP model for this melting season. In April I have some more time for polishing and might update all regional graphs as well. Until then you can follow the bright colour spectacle on:

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs


oren

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #69 on: March 25, 2017, 08:33:56 AM »
Thanks Tealight. I expect your graphs will be very busy this year.

Darvince

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #70 on: March 25, 2017, 08:42:38 AM »
It tells me that permission is required to view the graphs updated for 2017.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #71 on: March 25, 2017, 09:04:48 AM »
It tells me that permission is required to view the graphs updated for 2017.

Ah sorry I forgot to make the images public. It should be fixed now.

oren

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #72 on: March 25, 2017, 10:58:26 AM »
It tells me that permission is required to view the graphs updated for 2017.

Ah sorry I forgot to make the images public. It should be fixed now.
For some reason I still find many of the images on the site appear as broken icons and are not loading. Not sure why.