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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2950 on: February 27, 2017, 05:33:26 PM »
deleted after re-consideration based on various reactions. too many felt offended while i as referring to the the non-scientific part between the lines. sorry to those who felt offended.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2017, 08:09:35 PM by magnamentis »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2951 on: February 27, 2017, 06:10:35 PM »
That 2014 AGU Guy is a Joke.
Not sure where you get that.

I expect if you have some specific criticisms, you could contact him here:

http://instaar.colorado.edu/people/james-w-c-white/

If you'd care to articulate them better, we might even invite him to respond here.
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Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2952 on: February 27, 2017, 07:02:28 PM »
Meddoc, your post seems to pull in a couple different directions and seems more of a rant.

I went back and tried to find where he mentioned methane, and only found one place where he mentioned methane went up 50% during the Younger Dryas.

He did mention terrestrial permafrost melting as a non-abrupt event.  So not sure where you got that from, but it had to be such a brief mention I was unable to find it.

The release of methane would be a 'positive feedback' enhancing global warming.

Are you arguing we wouldn't see an increase in methane with a 5C rise?

Dr Jim White has young children.  I believe he had a daughter born just about the time that video was made.

Are you wanting or not wanting the scientists to tell you?  It was very unclear in your post as you went on about them not wanting to do manual labor.  What was that about?

 

Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2953 on: February 27, 2017, 07:42:00 PM »
That 2014 AGU Guy is a Joke.
Not sure where you get that.

I expect if you have some specific criticisms, you could contact him here:

http://instaar.colorado.edu/people/james-w-c-white/

If you'd care to articulate them better, we might even invite him to respond here.

Jim White offers one of the best summaries on abrupt climate change. He's doing an amazing work in this field. However, he almost entirely focuses on sea ice, albedo and CO2. There are many newer studies showing multiple positive feedback mechanisms which greatly speed up the process. I'll dig up some links later but these come to mind at the moment : Methane (thawing permafrost), Phytoplankton decline (another factor affecting the ability of the oceans to absorb CO2), darkening of the sea ice surface (algae bloom, pollution), tree loss (wildfires, ozone, deforestation), greening of the arctic (as vegetation advances to the poles it warms the soil), microbes/bacteria amplified thawing of perfmafrost, more frequent floods - more dark patches of the ocean as rivers such as Mackenzie carry silty water through their deltas and into the ocean, bigger and more frequent dust storms transfer more dust to high elevation regions, changes to the thermohaline conveyor belt, jellyfish invasion (speed up the decline of certain plantkon species and also increase CO2 level in the oceans), earthquakes could trigger big releases of methane and their freqency (as well as that of volcanoes and tsunami) increases as the planet gets warmer, jets stream disruption/changes in polar vortex and Hadley cells, slowdown of deep ocean currents, changes in soil bacteria resulting in more CO2 production, more wave action in polar regions in winter (any bells?), more water vapors in the troposphere.

There's obviously much more to it but the main point seems to be that in order to make any projections on the severity of the problem one would need to conduct research in many different filelds. By the time we have a complete working model and projections - it could be too late.

Sorry for the off-topic

Pragma

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2954 on: February 27, 2017, 07:50:55 PM »
That 2014 AGU Guy is a Joke.

He just goes on to say- without any scientific proof- that there "has to be" a negative feedback on methane release. "Has to be" is rather a term used by politicians, lawyers or philosophers, economists, poets.

Most (well- paid) mainstream scientists still can not admit, that there's nothing that can be done against the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics to reverse current exponential processes.
I guess, they also have kids, too- so that's the other reason why they are not able to go there.
And, third- apart from lifting up a pen- I guess they are not really familiar with hard work. So, if the admission would lead to none of Your work is actually required anymore (cause You can not to anything to reverse it- except come up with more data about the ominous, that's going on)- their easy life would just go away.

Well, I don't know the man personally, so I can't offer an opinion. Besides, I would rather focus on the science. As for methane, I'm wondering if we watched the same video. I do not recall any reference to methane as a positive feedback.

As I mentioned in my previous post, the issue was rapid and abrupt changes and their likelihood. Until recently, the common wisdom has been that things happen very slowly, however it appears that abrupt change is much more common.

The definition of abrupt is another issue and I had heard that sub decadal swings were possible.

I thought he addressed both of the above points quite well. As for "admitting" that nothing can be done, I find that a very odd thing to say. AFAIK, there is no obligation to state that, and it has little to do with the subject of the presentation, which was, I repeat, abrupt climate change.

That said, he did use the phrases "long slow losing battle" and "no real stopping it"

Ad hominem attacks and ranting on about unrelated issues does little to advance the conversation.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2955 on: February 27, 2017, 09:25:16 PM »
Surely there is a thread on ASIF where the methane question including data sources and hypotheses can be discussed.  But not on this thread ?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2956 on: February 27, 2017, 10:04:07 PM »
If you go into the "Arctic Sea ice : Forum" (that is, not within this or any other thread), and type "methane" in the Search box (upper right corner below "... Blog" and "...Graphs" links), you'll find several (~15) threads that have "Methane" in the title plus additional threads with comments that mention the word.
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Cate

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2957 on: February 28, 2017, 02:34:46 AM »
Re post #2949

I am so sad to see this kind of garbage cropping up here on the ASIF: not only a blatant ad hominem attack, which is the last refuge of those who have no argument, but smearing an entire profession ("mainstream" scientists).

Please can we get back on topic?

5to10

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2958 on: February 28, 2017, 03:05:25 AM »
Re post #2949

I am so sad to see this kind of garbage cropping up here on the ASIF: not only a blatant ad hominem attack, which is the last refuge of those who have no argument, but smearing an entire profession ("mainstream" scientists).

Please can we get back on topic?

Ignore it, but careful not to get lost in the details of individual threads either. We need unity and clear direction right now, else we accept our fate as inactive observers. Some of you are content with that, fearing it is inevitable, others are not. It is not scientific to say getting through this is impossible, thus I try.

Simply posting or commenting on updates like ice extent serves little more purpose than further confirmation of our trajectory and its likely conclusions, shared amongst those who are already aware and who feel helpless to do anything, or don't want to.

Thus if you give a damn about trying at all, we all must focus on how to unify global consciousness, which must undoubtedly be the first step in truly impactful changes, or admit that we are doing no more than watch a train wreck unfold with popcorn at the ready.

Offtopic or not, I will continue to say that a great jump in awareness is NECESSARY in the the many minor players (reporters, editors, etc), the vast majority, who compose the entirety of newsmedia. I am more than willing to go offtopic here to raise awareness of that.

The details in this thread and others must be combined to paint an irrefutable (beyond irrationality which can fade in time) picture of where we are headed very soon, and the impact that they as individual reporters have when they do anything but report on this TOGETHER.

The key here is a step beyond saying to a reporter "Here is the information, it looks like we're screwed" and having them just casually drop it in somewhere, it's forcing the awareness upon them that they as individuals, and thus collectively, are the biggest influence regarding the regulation of global consciousness. Any time they report on anything other than the pressing matter at hand, they're letting it happen. Before they were so acutely aware, they would have had no moral decision to make, still in a way oblivious to their total influence as an individual, and their ability to spark a change. AFTER they are aware that in a way, it is all up to them right now, everything changes.

Mass campaign of thrusting awareness and an obvious moral decision on individual reporters is all I can think of. We need unity in consciousness ASAP. Newsmedia revolution through the many individuals seems the only logical way. They are human beings with morals and consciences, unlike the ENTITIES of newsmedia.

I hope someone passes this idea on to someone who can use it better than I.

Martin Gisser

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2959 on: February 28, 2017, 03:47:30 AM »
Simply posting or commenting on updates like ice extent serves little more purpose than further confirmation of our trajectory and its likely conclusions, shared amongst those who are already aware and who feel helpless to do anything, or don't want to.

Thus if you give a damn about trying at all, we all must focus on how to unify global consciousness, which must undoubtedly be the first step in truly impactful changes, or admit that we are doing no more than watch a train wreck unfold with popcorn at the ready.
Watching and trying to understand the complex workings of Mother Nature is a value in itself and is part and parcel of the consciouness you call for.
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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2960 on: February 28, 2017, 06:53:04 AM »
I just want to point out that it's better to go off-topic in a different thread than in this particular one, which is very specific and widely read.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2961 on: February 28, 2017, 07:20:51 AM »
I just want to point out that it's better to go off-topic in a different thread than in this particular one, which is very specific and widely read.

I consider off topic here or any of the regularly updated or fixed- on-top threads (no, I won't give a list of threads I follow regularly) a deliberate attempt to divert the site from science.

So to recap, after an almost el nino on 2014-15 and the huge el nino of 2015-16 the ice amounts have been very close to bottom values or the lowest values. On 2016, the Antarctic sea ice joined the arctic sea ice by diminishing to it's lowest amount early in 2017. Meanwhile in the north, that is Arctic, the sea ice has been so low that you really have to search the latest day when the amounts were not among the 5th lowest.

The freezing season has seen a whole bunch of low pressure areas around and also in the arctic, The mist, clouds etc high concrntration atmospheric water have been blocking outgoing radiation much leaving many parts of Arctic with lower than historical average ice (extent, area, and volume).

This is nothing new for site regulars, of course. 
« Last Edit: February 28, 2017, 07:57:16 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2962 on: February 28, 2017, 10:04:56 AM »
With more and more of the ice becoming visible on the sats now I am appalled by the condition of the ice I am seeing ( and how widespread it is?). The way floes near instantly fill with ice rubble is a new to me at this time of year? Later in the season I have seen it occurring but that is when the ice has spent all summer in melt and the floes are warm?

There is also a similar level of 'pull off' from coasts ( with late formed 'fill' now covering the coast?) so will we see 'kill zones' for ice set up again by high season?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2963 on: February 28, 2017, 11:26:25 AM »
Re post #2949

I am so sad to see this kind of garbage cropping up here on the ASIF: not only a blatant ad hominem attack, which is the last refuge of those who have no argument, but smearing an entire profession ("mainstream" scientists).

Please can we get back on topic?

Hear, hear Cate! I'm all too familiar with that sort of behaviour on "skeptical" web sites:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/the-telegraph-is-propagating-fake-news-about-the-arctic/

I suggest that the author of #2949 takes whatever evidence they may have for their point of view and presents an ad-hom less version of it on one of the many "methane" threads.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2964 on: February 28, 2017, 11:45:33 AM »
Sadly though Jim this type of trash just emboldens the worst offenders that we end up doing battle with across the forums?

I just re-read the start of re-freeze season thread over on another site and all the usual trolls were there in force informing folk as to the record recovery ongoing ( how many low ice years have we seen? how many 'early spurts as high arctic freezes?) moving onto the cold across Siberia and how that would chill the Arctic to record levels......not forgetting the " oooh! look at all the heat we are losing to the Arctic Night...." even with the new papers/data showing it not occurring???

Unlike us most folk only think on the Arctic when it is brought to their attention and so when it is making scientific news on a regular Basin the misinformers feel duty bound to put out a similar amount of 'balancing'  BS?

KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2965 on: February 28, 2017, 01:45:42 PM »
So to recap, after an almost el nino on 2014-15 and the huge el nino of 2015-16 the ice amounts have been very close to bottom values or the lowest values. On 2016, the Antarctic sea ice joined the arctic sea ice by diminishing to it's lowest amount early in 2017. Meanwhile in the north, that is Arctic, the sea ice has been so low that you really have to search the latest day when the amounts were not among the 5th lowest.

The freezing season has seen a whole bunch of low pressure areas around and also in the arctic, The mist, clouds etc high concrntration atmospheric water have been blocking outgoing radiation much leaving many parts of Arctic with lower than historical average ice (extent, area, and volume).

This is nothing new for site regulars, of course.

And now, just at the very end of freezing season we might be seeing signs of a high pressure dome finally forming -- just about the most destructive way to start the thawing season.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2966 on: February 28, 2017, 03:05:15 PM »
This was my worry about the coming spring?

I would not know if the mechanism could continue into spring but the forcings the low solar appears to place on the N.Atlantic does appear to promote high pressure over winter. We , in the UK, had been spared the atmospheric rivers this winter because of the High's that kept the lows at bay. If , as the ITCZ approaches the equator and on over it into our hemisphere the high migrate north then we should expect not only the Beaufort high this spring but also HP dominating the Atlantic side of the basin.

A sunny start to melt season is not really what we need!
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2967 on: February 28, 2017, 03:37:16 PM »
It seems to me that the influence of the 2015-2016 el niño is finally subsiding. Enough heat was spent not making ice, irradiated to space and convected to the stratosphere where somewhat normal winter conditions are returning. Regrettably, GHG's virtually guarantee that some of the heat stays in the system for much longer.

In some ways 2017 is better than 2016. For one the blob and el niño are two lesser warming influences on the atmosphere (for now). Although el niño is threatening to reappear, it may do so after May and hopefully weaker than last year. Because of albedo warming potential the timing of the el niño is very important. Extent lost early accumulates more energy than extent lost after solstice.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2968 on: February 28, 2017, 03:52:37 PM »
Quote
Regrettably, GHG's virtually guarantee that some of the heat stays in the system for much longer.

For A Doubling of CO2 ( curious why they chose doubling, if anyone knows.  ??? )
« Last Edit: February 28, 2017, 03:58:13 PM by Tigertown »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2969 on: February 28, 2017, 04:40:50 PM »
...
And now, just at the very end of freezing season we might be seeing signs of a high pressure dome finally forming -- just about the most destructive way to start the thawing season.
Although the thawing season has started (more or less) in the southern reaches of the Arctic, remember that (historically) volume peaks in April.  That implies that while ice is melting in the more-southern areas, water continues to freeze in the high Arctic.  Even in May (IIRC) the volume of CAB ice grows (it just melts faster elsewhere), so a high pressure dome over the CAB in March and April surely assists freezing.

So I think it matters a great deal where the high pressure is during the winter and "spring".  (A song's lyrics frequently comes to me - "When it's springtime in Alaska it's 40 below." - alas, this may not be true any more!)
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2970 on: February 28, 2017, 06:47:58 PM »
...
And now, just at the very end of freezing season we might be seeing signs of a high pressure dome finally forming -- just about the most destructive way to start the thawing season.
Although the thawing season has started (more or less) in the southern reaches of the Arctic, remember that (historically) volume peaks in April.  That implies that while ice is melting in the more-southern areas, water continues to freeze in the high Arctic.  Even in May (IIRC) the volume of CAB ice grows (it just melts faster elsewhere), so a high pressure dome over the CAB in March and April surely assists freezing.

So I think it matters a great deal where the high pressure is during the winter and "spring".  (A song's lyrics frequently comes to me - "When it's springtime in Alaska it's 40 below." - alas, this may not be true any more!)
You may be right, but the only metric I feel like I comfortably know is the green line in the DMI 80N, and that starts going up just about tomorrow.

It might not be when melting happens, but it is the real effective end of Winter.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2971 on: February 28, 2017, 06:51:34 PM »
Volume is trending down right at the moment. Even in the regions of the Arctic where HP is dominating, there is not much thickening happening the last few days. We had a good little run for about ten days days or so, but that is over now.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2972 on: March 01, 2017, 12:51:17 AM »
LATENT HEAT TRANSFER FROM GREENLAND SEAS REACHES 80-YEAR HIGH

News reports are coming that Reykjavik is drowning in a snow-storm (51 cm snowfall). This represents a major latent heat transfer and if such events occur elsewhere on the North Atlantic front of the Arctic Ocean's sea ice, such heat from snow ends in sea ice. In addition, storms cause waves that pulverize thin sea ice, increasing its transport and capture of heat from thermal inertia of sea water as moving ice brushes over warm water, replacement water transport bringing warm saline water into the Arctic, and increased vertical mixing of warm deep water with surface. Add into these: increases in temperatures, latent heat transport events and inversion layer pounding back more heat to the surface, there are too many compounds that do not allow ice to grow - the outcome for thick and development of multiyear sea ice is getting exceedingly bleak.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39104230/iceland-gets-record-breaking-snowfall-and-the-pictures-are-amazing

...
And now, just at the very end of freezing season we might be seeing signs of a high pressure dome finally forming -- just about the most destructive way to start the thawing season.
Although the thawing season has started (more or less) in the southern reaches of the Arctic, remember that (historically) volume peaks in April.  That implies that while ice is melting in the more-southern areas, water continues to freeze in the high Arctic.  Even in May (IIRC) the volume of CAB ice grows (it just melts faster elsewhere), so a high pressure dome over the CAB in March and April surely assists freezing.

So I think it matters a great deal where the high pressure is during the winter and "spring".  (A song's lyrics frequently comes to me - "When it's springtime in Alaska it's 40 below." - alas, this may not be true any more!)
You may be right, but the only metric I feel like I comfortably know is the green line in the DMI 80N, and that starts going up just about tomorrow.

It might not be when melting happens, but it is the real effective end of Winter.

longwalks1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2973 on: March 01, 2017, 03:29:20 AM »
The 2014 Dr. Jim White youtube talk was to me worth listening to.  I am not going to view it again a second time at this point.  However, since he was maligned in this section, I post here a 2017 talk of his.



More climate based and less of the historical basis of ice cores and ice ages, move elsewhere if felt appropriate.

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2974 on: March 01, 2017, 10:30:38 AM »
Let's. Stay. On. Topic. Please.
Compare, compare, compare

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2975 on: March 01, 2017, 04:02:35 PM »
While it may be getting close to time to launch the melting thread, is anyone really considering risking getting a "You're too earlyyyyyy..." response (mild reprimand?) from Neven that the March 8 2016 start of the melting thread earned last year?

We already got that, but I think he gave up.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2976 on: March 01, 2017, 04:18:06 PM »
Thought people might find this interesting... Beaufort yesterday vs. this time last year (i.e. mid-crackopalypse)...


subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2977 on: March 02, 2017, 01:23:32 AM »
A lot of persistent thin ice is still showing, including an almost continuous strip all the way from Svalbard to the Laptev Sea.  Which is along the path of the warm Atlantic current, no? And according to GFS the next week will have winds continuing blowing ice away from the Russian coast. While that ice will undoubtably ridge and thicken somewhere else, giving volume a bit of boost, how much of that is destined for the convergence zone where ice is packed for export via the Fram?

The Beaufort a way offshore from the MacKenzie is also under .5m thick, and has been for a while. The area has been shrinking for a few days then expanding again.

I've attached a couple of animations of Crackopalyptic events in Laptev and Beaufort in recent days. The cascading shattering in the Laptev looks particularly interesting. They'll need a click to animate, files are a bit large

edit: the date ranges are 20-28feb for the Laptev anim, and 23-27feb for the Beaufort. (Unfortunately this computer is running from a live CD with no image editor or otherwise I'd add the dates to the images. I'll have something more capable soon)
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 01:37:34 AM by subgeometer »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2978 on: March 02, 2017, 03:35:31 AM »
Thought people might find this interesting... Beaufort yesterday vs. this time last year (i.e. mid-crackopalypse)...
Last year, there was actually something to *crack*, and other bits of it which were solid enough to resist.

Everything there is FYI, and most of it less than 1.7M; if it gets stressed, it breaks, and spreads out the force, rather than transmit it.
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epiphyte

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2979 on: March 02, 2017, 03:58:45 AM »
Thought people might find this interesting... Beaufort yesterday vs. this time last year (i.e. mid-crackopalypse)...
Last year, there was actually something to *crack*, and other bits of it which were solid enough to resist.

Everything there is FYI, and most of it less than 1.7M; if it gets stressed, it breaks, and spreads out the force, rather than transmit it.

Yeah... that was going to be my next post :)

...when you zoom in you can see over time that the center and edges are moving at different rates, with the breaks spreading almost fractally - decreasing the fragment size beyond visibility.

Seems vaguely reminiscent of the kind of thing that happened in the CAB north of Laptev last year, where it and (iirc) the paucity of melt ponds caused many to opine that there was no melting going on, until late in the season when they were suddenly saying "where did all the ice go?"

Iain

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2980 on: March 02, 2017, 06:55:14 AM »
As more images become available as the sun comes up I’ve been watching Parry channel, a possible exit route for MYI accumulated on the N coast of the CAA islands.

I can see movement in the ice there.

Thinking of the bigger picture. Prevailing wind is from the NE which will not assist clearing Perry ice into Baffin bay, but how about ocean current? We know there is a southward drift of ice from the CAB to the CAA driven partly by wind, partly by current.

Other than the narrow Fury and Hecla strait between Baffin I and the mainland the only way out is via Parry past capes Sherard and Liverpool into Baffin bay.

So current will prevail in moving ice South  Eastward down Parry  if the grain size of broken ice is small enough?
<edit - .gif seems not to be working>
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 07:11:43 AM by Iain »

bairgon

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2981 on: March 02, 2017, 07:18:04 AM »
As more images become available as the sun comes up I’ve been watching Parry channel, a possible exit route for MYI accumulated on the N coast of the CAA islands. ...

<edit - .gif seems not to be working>

Just keep gif dimensions below 700 x 700. See one in this message (from the melting season) of the same area:

The CAA garlic press has been mentioned a few times. ...

Picked up that hint from A-Team a little while ago. He was the master of the animated gif:

... 700 pixel forum constraint  ...

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2982 on: March 02, 2017, 07:20:03 AM »
I am afraid that the old MYI pressed into the CAA in autumn and winter is actually LYI (Last Year Ice).
And where indeed is A-Team  :(

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2983 on: March 02, 2017, 07:29:24 AM »
@Iain
It indeed does work if you click it.

A-Team had mentioned something about Cosco a while back, so maybe look there. ???

Sterks

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2984 on: March 02, 2017, 10:37:18 AM »
Thought people might find this interesting... Beaufort yesterday vs. this time last year (i.e. mid-crackopalypse)...
Last year, there was actually something to *crack*, and other bits of it which were solid enough to resist.

Everything there is FYI, and most of it less than 1.7M; if it gets stressed, it breaks, and spreads out the force, rather than transmit it.
In my humble opinion, there has not been appreciable ice moving compared to the same date last year. If it stays quiet until June, will be healthy. That's a big IF anyway.
This is consistent with the observation that a predominantly low-dominated Arctic weakens the Gyre. Weakening of the Gyre stop positioning MYI in the Beaufort Sea and creates no ocean gaps far so easy. This might be considered as being a negative feedback due to a wetter and stormier Arctic (positive for ice rebound); other negative feedbacks of storminess could be later refreezing, greater accumulations of snow in winter and spring, and overcast skies in May and June.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2985 on: March 02, 2017, 11:29:45 AM »
Thought people might find this interesting... Beaufort yesterday vs. this time last year (i.e. mid-crackopalypse)...
Last year, there was actually something to *crack*, and other bits of it which were solid enough to resist.

Everything there is FYI, and most of it less than 1.7M; if it gets stressed, it breaks, and spreads out the force, rather than transmit it.
In my humble opinion, there has not been appreciable ice moving compared to the same date last year. If it stays quiet until June, will be healthy. That's a big IF anyway.
This is consistent with the observation that a predominantly low-dominated Arctic weakens the Gyre. Weakening of the Gyre stop positioning MYI in the Beaufort Sea and creates no ocean gaps far so easy. This might be considered as being a negative feedback due to a wetter and stormier Arctic (positive for ice rebound); other negative feedbacks of storminess could be later refreezing, greater accumulations of snow in winter and spring, and overcast skies in May and June.
Right, I commented along similar lines the other day but the thing about the snow is a double edged sword as most know here.
And I never found the late freezing negative feedback all that convincing, but if there is a year with a very late refreezing in the Pacific side, this is it. Will be put to test.
Out of curiosity why stormier Arctic in Fall/Winter is related, or comes hand in hand with a stormier Arctic in Spring/Summer?

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2986 on: March 02, 2017, 07:17:05 PM »
Something is causing mid and polar latitudes to lag/decouple more from tropical latitudes.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2987 on: March 02, 2017, 07:41:42 PM »
As more images become available as the sun comes up I’ve been watching Parry channel, a possible exit route for MYI accumulated on the N coast of the CAA islands.

I can see movement in the ice there.
.....

No need to wait for the sun to come up. Use the IR images  (band 31) in Worldview http://go.nasa.gov/2mxK1Nt
If your browser is firefox or chrome, you can change the colour scale to something with more contrast than  shades of pink and squash the scale to the temperatures relevant to sea water and ice.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2988 on: March 02, 2017, 11:04:45 PM »
Something is causing mid and polar latitudes to lag/decouple more from tropical latitudes.
Could be explained by a number of things;

Increased low-latitude exposure to cooler sea surface.
Increased circulatory exchange with the mid/high latitudes.
More H2O entering the atmosphere (sensible heat lost to phase change)
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Blizzard92

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2989 on: March 03, 2017, 12:39:15 AM »
I've updated my YTD (Jan-Feb) Arctic surface temperature graphic (NCEP/NCAR R1)... currently 2nd "warmest" in this time series (from 1948)

I wasn't sure how large of file size could be supported here, so you can find it at: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
UC Irvine - Earth System Science Ph.D. Candidate
Cornell University - Atmospheric Sciences B.Sc.

Twitter: @ZLabe
Website: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/

Sterks

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2990 on: March 03, 2017, 09:58:46 AM »
other negative feedbacks of storminess could be later refreezing, greater accumulations of snow in winter and spring, and overcast skies in May and June.
Out of curiosity why stormier Arctic in Fall/Winter is related, or comes hand in hand with a stormier Arctic in Spring/Summer?
Speculation based exclusively on the observations of the past three years, admittedly.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2991 on: March 03, 2017, 11:16:53 AM »
other negative feedbacks of storminess could be later refreezing, greater accumulations of snow in winter and spring, and overcast skies in May and June.
Out of curiosity why stormier Arctic in Fall/Winter is related, or comes hand in hand with a stormier Arctic in Spring/Summer?
Speculation based exclusively on the observations of the past three years, admittedly.

I hoping your observations are borne out as otherwise we would still have 'Perfect melt storm' summers to expect over the coming tens years ( this summer being the first year is could put in an appearance!) and there is no way this ice could last out such a high melt , high export melt season!!!

Whilst I was counting down the years to the possible return of the perfect melt storm I appear to have missed the basin reorganise to the point that a poor summer for melt , like last year, are still able to take us to second lowest  and leave us with large swathes of open water open to the sun all melt season. High melt forcing would raise ssts well beyond what we saw last year and last years summer drove all those disturbances we saw over Autumn/Early winter so what would ice free under sun for 6 weeks???
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iceman

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2992 on: March 03, 2017, 03:25:26 PM »
A little early to call the maximum, but it's looking increasingly likely based on conditions in several peripheral areas this coming week.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2993 on: March 03, 2017, 05:53:01 PM »
NASA unveils their new SIE summer minimum forecast model



paper is found here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000495/abstract;jsessionid=513F962E5B630F86697C3D9399DD914F.f03t02
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2994 on: March 04, 2017, 02:23:52 AM »
GFS forecasts a return to big positive anomalies  in just under a week with a pulse of warmth entering from the Pacific. And daytime temps are becoming noticeably greater than night in the more southerly areas of the Arctic basin like the Chukchi sea

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2995 on: March 04, 2017, 02:57:28 AM »
OK....What is it about 247K?  (Or more likely some other temp that translates into 247K in DMI 80N.)

The temp bounced up to it for months a couple years ago, and then bounced down to it for over a year before falling through a few days ago -- and now it seems to be trying to bounce off it as the top again.

I'm sure it has something to do with H2O -- but other than that I haven't a clue.


Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2996 on: March 04, 2017, 01:04:09 PM »
Uh....

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2997 on: March 04, 2017, 03:05:50 PM »
NASA unveils their new SIE summer minimum forecast model
   ....
paper is found here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000495/abstract;jsessionid=513F962E5B630F86697C3D9399DD914F.f03t02
Looks promising, especially at the regional level.  Also offers validation to those on this forum who have focused on concentration data:
    "The SIC data is available near-real time and may have been overlooked as a source of skillful seasonal sea ice forecasts."
    "... the ice concentration and MO forecast skill appear to benefit from incorporating changes in the location of the spring ice edge and an additional open water positive feedback loop within the ice pack (in the SIC forecast), especially later in spring."

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2998 on: March 04, 2017, 08:48:26 PM »
h/t to Zack Labe

This is showing atmospheric circulation changes that are far above the projections of the climate models.  I expect this deviation to continue as China reduces high-temp SO2 emissions, similar to the Nasa graph below (with my arrow showing causation)



-----------
edit: can someone remind me of the resize tag for images in this board?
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 12:02:34 AM by jai mitchell »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2999 on: March 04, 2017, 08:56:24 PM »
h/t to Zack Labe

This is showing atmospheric circulation changes that are far above the projections of the climate models.  I expect this deviation to continue as China reduces high-temp SO2 emissions, similar to the Nasa graph below (with my arrow showing causation)
Thanks for gif, but I had to download it to be able to see it, as it came out jumbo-sized on here.
If you reduce it, it's no longer a gif. May just be time to call in the A-Team. ;)
« Last Edit: March 04, 2017, 10:00:32 PM by Tigertown »