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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3000 on: March 04, 2017, 09:53:28 PM »
Change the start {img}http... (I show {} brackets replacing [] brackets to not confuse the computer gods, but use the square ones) with {img width=500}http...  You can use the 'quote' feature to look at the code of the quoted message to see the actual code.  I used "500" but it can be larger if you want.  Experiment with the preview before posting.
h/t to Zack Labe

This is showing atmospheric circulation changes that are far above the projections of the climate models.  I expect this deviation to continue as China reduces high-temp SO2 emissions, similar to the Nasa graph below (with my arrow showing causation)



-----------
edit: can someone remind me of the resize tag for images in this board?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3001 on: March 04, 2017, 11:13:54 PM »
NASA unveils their new SIE summer minimum forecast model
   ....
paper is found here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000495/abstract;jsessionid=513F962E5B630F86697C3D9399DD914F.f03t02
Looks promising, especially at the regional level.  Also offers validation to those on this forum who have focused on concentration data:
    "The SIC data is available near-real time and may have been overlooked as a source of skillful seasonal sea ice forecasts."
    "... the ice concentration and MO forecast skill appear to benefit from incorporating changes in the location of the spring ice edge and an additional open water positive feedback loop within the ice pack (in the SIC forecast), especially later in spring."

The late season model is essentially what Slater was doing (and they claim a similar level of skill on their model to the one he had). I'm not sure how their early season model differs from the melt pond models, they say its based on open water but its not all that easy to tell open water from melt pond, so it would need a careful look at the details in the paper to see if they are actually correlating something in a new way rather than describing one of the existing melt pond model approaches in a different way.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3002 on: March 05, 2017, 12:04:35 AM »
it's no longer a gif. May just be time to call in the A-Team. ;)

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Iain

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3003 on: March 05, 2017, 08:11:16 AM »
PIOMAS data for Feb has been released, and it's not good news.

"Arctic sea ice volume continues 2017 with a another new record low. February 2017 sea ice  volume was 17,400 km3 , nearly 2000 km3 below the previous record from  February in 2013"

The gap from Feb 17 to the next lowest Feb volume is significant, about the same as the spread of all recorded volumes from 2010 to 2016.

Iain

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3004 on: March 05, 2017, 08:26:23 AM »
Oops. Just realised there is a separate thread on PIOMAS updates. March starts on p27.

BTW has the post count stopped working? I'm not bothered, but have been stuck on 15 for the last 3 posts.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 08:40:36 AM by Iain »

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3005 on: March 05, 2017, 11:21:54 AM »
Iain, I believe if you post again, it will say '16' everywhere, ie your comments don't get a number of their own (they do if you check your posts via your profile).

edit: Or maybe not, I just checked your post history and the most recent posts haven't showed up there. I'll look into this once I'm back home again in a few days from now.
Compare, compare, compare

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3006 on: March 05, 2017, 12:20:00 PM »
Iain - My own take on the February PIOMAS numbers, together with lots of other numbers too:

"Facts About the Arctic in March 2017"
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 02:00:26 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Iain

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3007 on: March 05, 2017, 01:00:23 PM »
@Jim - Great, it all adds to my knowledge.

@Neven - No problem, I only raised it in case it was a symptom of a wider issue.

<edit> 16. Seems to be OK now.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3008 on: March 05, 2017, 03:16:35 PM »
That ice thickness looks horrible across the peripheral seas in the basin. Can there actually be that much ice below 2 meters?

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3009 on: March 05, 2017, 03:27:54 PM »
Do we have a new hot-spot forming just west of Novaya Zemlya?

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3010 on: March 05, 2017, 04:26:38 PM »
The thickness in the Greenland Sea is disturbing, if I'm reading this correctly. A lot of good old ice going down the drain. I wonder if this is the same as other years.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3011 on: March 05, 2017, 04:29:41 PM »
Major drain for Arctic Sea ice is unplugged.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3012 on: March 05, 2017, 05:13:38 PM »
Major drain for Arctic Sea ice is unplugged.

Thanks for the heads up. I'd foolishly never tried that band before! Here's the view from Sentinel on March 4th:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAB
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3013 on: March 05, 2017, 06:21:10 PM »
The rubble in that image is striking. I would love to see images like that for all of the basin. I suspect most of the ice looks like this.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3014 on: March 05, 2017, 07:08:23 PM »
Do we have a new hot-spot forming just west of Novaya Zemlya?
It's been there since last season, Jim.
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bairgon

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3015 on: March 05, 2017, 07:10:59 PM »
Major drain for Arctic Sea ice is unplugged.

That arch has held for at least a month. An inner arch formed a little while back and collapsed recently.

See the message below (click on the title) and read following messages. It's in the Nares Strait thread over in the Greenland forum.

Candidate Lincoln arch proposed. Sentinel animation from Jan 29 to Feb 5.

Edit:

Actually, looks like the arch has started to break - follow this message:

Looks like the arch has started to go.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 07:22:09 PM by bairgon »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3016 on: March 05, 2017, 07:26:50 PM »
Major drain for Arctic Sea ice is unplugged.

Interesting, according to Hycom it was never really plugged to begin with (maybe for a week or so) 
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3017 on: March 05, 2017, 08:36:19 PM »
Major drain for Arctic Sea ice is unplugged.
Thanks for the heads up. I'd foolishly never tried that band before! Here's the view from Sentinel on March 4th:
----------------------

Whoa. Looks trashy to me?
Still got some months to plug it up that drain though???

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3018 on: March 05, 2017, 08:39:12 PM »
The Nares arc (not arch) seems to be created by a surface outflow from Nares, rather than being a structure which resists the movement of CA ice into the straight.  Thus the depicted ice movement is probably mostly glacier outflow heading south, rather than ice transported from the pack.

That incredibly small sliver of multi-year ice is likely to get shoved through the CAA garlic press this year, then the entire basin will be populated with seasonal ice trying to hang on.  Not a good look. 

Pragma

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3019 on: March 05, 2017, 09:47:14 PM »
Iain - My own take on the February PIOMAS numbers, together with lots of other numbers too:

"Facts About the Arctic in March 2017"

Thanks for the update, but should not the Y axis on the first graph be thousands, not millions?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3020 on: March 05, 2017, 10:30:47 PM »
Should not the Y axis on the first graph be thousands, not millions?

It should indeed, as was pointed out to me elsewhere. Now fixed.
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Pragma

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3021 on: March 05, 2017, 10:54:54 PM »
I am confused by what appear to be significant discrepancies between various data products such as the DMI sea ice volume and Piomas as well as similar reports on ice thickness.

For example, DMI reported just over 20k km^3 around the third week in February, but Piomas looks like just over 17k, which is in line with what Piomas reported at the end of January.

Am I reading something incorrectly? I realize that different methodologies produce different results, but all models are, or should be, compared against actual observations, such as submarine measurements and surface field trips.

So, like a man with two watches who doesn't know the correct time, which one is more accurate?

I guess we will find out when we have our first blue ocean event.

edit: km^3 not km^2
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 07:19:47 AM by Pragma »

bairgon

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3022 on: March 05, 2017, 11:17:10 PM »
The Nares arc (not arch) seems to be created by a surface outflow from Nares, rather than being a structure which resists the movement of CA ice into the straight.  Thus the depicted ice movement is probably mostly glacier outflow heading south, rather than ice transported from the pack.

It's not outflow from Nares. Take a look at the animations here

Breaking further, as needed.

and here

The arch in the Kane basin did not hold. The one on the other side it is still there, it lost a peeling though.

On occasion wind has been from the southwest, at which point the ice moves back up to the Lincoln sea. But mostly it has moved down the strait and into Baffin bay. The ice in the strait is new ice moving down. I haven't seen any glacier calving.

You can check back in the satellite images easily using http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php and request a few hundred Sentinel images.

Probably best to continue in the Nares Strait thread; though if the Strait doesn't block then this could be a significant place for export of MYI.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 06:45:40 AM by bairgon »

Watching_from_Canberra

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3023 on: March 06, 2017, 10:31:07 AM »
Major drain for Arctic Sea ice is unplugged.
Er, is that the Nares Strait flowing free of ice about 3 months earlier than usual?  In fact, if you scroll back in time, it actually opened up almost that much between 29 January and 3 Feb. :o

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3024 on: March 06, 2017, 11:21:46 AM »
Nares usually opens in early July, so 4 months early. But I should note it's still far from being open, though the potential is there now.

Cate

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3025 on: March 06, 2017, 11:48:02 AM »
Canadian Ice Service monthly "departure from normal concentration" charts show mostly normal concentration across the Canadian Arctic on 27 Feb 2017, with a few exceptions. For example, the great outflow of ice that comes down the Labrador Current from the west coast of Greenland along the Labrador coast is showing various degrees of lower than normal concentration along the entire periphery, as well as throughout waters NE of Newfoundland and in the Gulf of St Lawrence. The charts are here:

 http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=B6C654BB-1#departure

BenB

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3026 on: March 06, 2017, 12:08:38 PM »
Interesting charts, Cate. Looking outside the Arctic, Lake Erie is virtually ice-free this year, and all of the Great Lakes have much less ice than normal. Last year the ice cover was very low, but it's even lower this year, it seems. Story from a couple of weeks ago:

http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/02/22/great-lakes-water-level-weather/98270634/

Quote
Two years ago — Feb. 21, 2015 — the Great Lakes were 82.8 percent covered by ice.

....

This year, as of Tuesday, ice covered 8.7 percent of the lakes. That's even less than 2016 when ice covered 12.7 percent of the lakes on Feb. 21.

"It's actually turning out to be a more mild year than last year, which was supposed to be a strong El Niño year," said George Leshkevich, a physical scientist at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3027 on: March 06, 2017, 02:20:39 PM »
Do we have a new hot-spot forming just west of Novaya Zemlya?
It's been there since last season, Jim.
The second one has, but it looks like a third is forming right off the coast.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3028 on: March 06, 2017, 03:15:29 PM »

Major drain for Arctic Sea ice is unplugged.
Er, is that the Nares Strait flowing free of ice about 3 months earlier than usual?  In fact, if you scroll back in time, it actually opened up almost that much between 29 January and 3 Feb. :o
Yup, I know. I posted about it back then as well. :o
Didn't think it was going to last this long. Looks bad.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 04:32:50 PM by Thomas Barlow »

bairgon

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3029 on: March 06, 2017, 04:06:30 PM »
I think it's been going on all season. Tor Benjar posted on 8th Nov 2016:

Ice is forming in Nares Strait between the flowing floes, and gets broken up and carried down stream, just like in previous years at this time of year. DMI's Sentinel images show floes continue to be on the move from the Arctic just above Lincoln Sea all the way to Baffin Bay.  No floes appear to be large enough to get stuck anywhere, so continued ice export is probable.

I've been watching since about that time, and the only time when export stops is when the wind is strong from the south west up the strait. Appears to have happened around 1st Jan and 17th Jan (read in the Nares thread).

Sterks

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3030 on: March 06, 2017, 04:14:06 PM »
The already announced push of trans-polar drift, usual in these dates as far as I know, is confirmed and will last for five days according to the ECWMF. Within the realm of possibilities not much more, but this could be the closing event of this eventful freezing season.

Iain

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3031 on: March 07, 2017, 08:03:17 AM »
Sentinel 2B got off the ground successfully.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39183353

"Sentinel-2B carries a large camera to image all land surfaces and coastal waters in visible and infrared light."

"Cryosphere: Mapping snow fields and glacier melting"


meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3032 on: March 07, 2017, 12:20:15 PM »
Sentinel 2B got off the ground successfully.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39183353

"Sentinel-2B carries a large camera to image all land surfaces and coastal waters in visible and infrared light."

"Cryosphere: Mapping snow fields and glacier melting"

I guess we all know where this is headed. No more need for more research or satellites. Except as Half- Measures to reassure ourselves, we are doing something...

Iain

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3033 on: March 07, 2017, 01:05:00 PM »
@meddoc

Not sure what you mean.

NB: It's funded by Europe,  so safe from any Trumpheting.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3034 on: March 07, 2017, 01:37:22 PM »
One thing that climate and environmental science in general (and the environment itself) is, is global. Who knows what the consequences will be if Trump succeeds in ripping apart the US environmental science fabric.
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N00bi-Wan

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3035 on: March 07, 2017, 08:30:16 PM »
@meddoc

Not sure what you mean.

NB: It's funded by Europe,  so safe from any Trumpheting.
Yup, it's an ESA program:
Quote
Each of the SENTINEL-2 satellites weighs approximately 1.2 tonnes, and is designed to be compatible with small launchers like VEGA and ROCKOT. The satellite lifespan is 7.25 years, which includes a 3 month in-orbit commissioning phase. Batteries and propellants have been provided to accommodate 12 years of operations, including end of life de-orbiting manoeuvres.

Two identical SENTINEL-2 satellites will operate simultaneously, phased at 180° to each other, in a sun-synchronous orbit at a mean altitude of 786 km. The position of each SENTINEL-2 satellite in its orbit will be measured by a dual-frequency Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver. Orbital accuracy will be maintained by a dedicated propulsion system.

The SENTINEL-2 satellite system is being developed by an industrial consortium led by Astrium GmbH (Germany). Astrium SAS (France) is responsible for the MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI).
Link: https://earth.esa.int/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-2/satellite-description

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3036 on: March 07, 2017, 08:45:38 PM »
A quick messy graph.

On the primary y-axis is the previous maxima (blue) and the last 39 days of extent (green).

We've the current difference from the previous maxima shown by the red bars and using the secondary y-axis.

So, still 105k off last year's max

All NSIDC and 5 day average


Koop in VA

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3037 on: March 08, 2017, 12:20:39 AM »
According to Climate Reanalyzer the 5 day forecast for 10M wind speeds is conducive for ice dispersion for Bering, Barents, through the Fram and the Labrador Sea.  Based on this, while the Arctic is expected to warm up significantly in the same time frame, it would appear that we may have another week to wait for the peak.

The one caveat to that would perhaps be the fate of the Okhotsk which has relatively thin ice and compaction winds plus some above freezing temps forecast for parts of it in the next week.

meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3038 on: March 08, 2017, 09:45:53 AM »
One thing that climate and environmental science in general (and the environment itself) is, is global. Who knows what the consequences will be if Trump succeeds in ripping apart the US environmental science fabric.

What has this "climate and environmental science" effectively done to reverse ANYTHING?

We can only be observers as this runaway train is speeding into the abyss.
Of course, You're free to believe You can shout at the tide not to come in- by coming up with more and more observational data.
Or blame one particular leader.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3039 on: March 08, 2017, 10:54:17 AM »
A nice storm centered in the Arctic by Sunday (ECMWF) and the ACNFS drift predicted for same day.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3040 on: March 08, 2017, 12:12:02 PM »
Seaice: If Piomas is right about the location of most of the last thick ice, and if that drift forecast is correct, a large volume of ice is just about to get a good push towards the Fram exit.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3041 on: March 08, 2017, 01:55:25 PM »
Seaice: If Piomas is right about the location of most of the last thick ice, and if that drift forecast is correct, a large volume of ice is just about to get a good push towards the Fram exit.
Yes, i agree, and ice melting near Svalbard and Greenland, probably why Feb volume anomaly stayed flat, regardless of the faster refreezing of late Feb. and the constant drift, refreezing and accumulation of ice at ESS.
This push is actually starting now but not clear it will persist much into next week.
Besides wheres A-Team cry, we should shout "where is the Gyre?" Or "Lo the Anti-Gyre!"

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3042 on: March 08, 2017, 05:20:47 PM »
Extent might go up due to export, but these drift arrows spell death to a lot of thick ice swimming on the top of Greenland, and if it materializes it should increase the probability of a new record min.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3043 on: March 08, 2017, 06:29:16 PM »
Extent might go up due to export, but these drift arrows spell death to a lot of thick ice swimming on the top of Greenland, and if it materializes it should increase the probability of a new record min.

The weather sites all seem to say there are significant westerlies and northerlies over the next 5 days or so, resulting in a load of thick ice going down the Fram. If things then go quiet, is it still cold enough for that sea ice loss to be replenished ?

At this time of year the battle between warmth advancing and cold resisting is both fascinating and in my view sets the scene for the summer.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3044 on: March 08, 2017, 07:50:52 PM »
Extent might go up due to export, but these drift arrows spell death to a lot of thick ice swimming on the top of Greenland, and if it materializes it should increase the probability of a new record min.

The weather sites all seem to say there are significant westerlies and northerlies over the next 5 days or so, resulting in a load of thick ice going down the Fram. If things then go quiet, is it still cold enough for that sea ice loss to be replenished ?

At this time of year the battle between warmth advancing and cold resisting is both fascinating and in my view sets the scene for the summer.

possibly in terms of extent, but certainly not the volume. should any 3-5m thick ice be flushed down the fram or elsewhere it cannot be re-plenished within a  month and not even within a year's time.
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charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3045 on: March 08, 2017, 08:49:07 PM »

I love the Hudson Gyre in #3039 above ! - Will that cause a breakup?


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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3046 on: March 09, 2017, 03:36:07 AM »
Quote
possibly in terms of extent, but certainly not the volume. should any 3-5m thick ice be flushed down the fram or elsewhere it cannot be re-plenished within a  month and not even within a year's time.

To some extent is not the thicker ice a result of thinner ice being pushed against the shore and piled up by wind and current? 


Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3047 on: March 09, 2017, 05:13:57 AM »

I love the Hudson Gyre in #3039 above ! - Will that cause a breakup?
Probably so, as so much of it is thin and already showing signs of melt.

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3048 on: March 09, 2017, 06:33:39 AM »
Quote
possibly in terms of extent, but certainly not the volume. should any 3-5m thick ice be flushed down the fram or elsewhere it cannot be re-plenished within a  month and not even within a year's time.

To some extent is not the thicker ice a result of thinner ice being pushed against the shore and piled up by wind and current?
It is, but in a process that takes years.

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3049 on: March 09, 2017, 09:22:19 AM »
Quote
possibly in terms of extent, but certainly not the volume. should any 3-5m thick ice be flushed down the fram or elsewhere it cannot be re-plenished within a  month and not even within a year's time.

To some extent is not the thicker ice a result of thinner ice being pushed against the shore and piled up by wind and current?
It is, but in a process that takes years.

Throughout the freezing season one observes significant increases in ice thickness along the rim of the CA.   This is a single season process.  It's where the thickest ice is found.