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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #950 on: November 22, 2016, 04:39:23 PM »
Quote
amateur meteorologist Holthaus gives a shout-out to the Forum as "a fairly obscure message board of sea ice enthusiasts"
A bit patronizing. Does he know of a better site? Has he previously demonstrated any in-depth knowledge of Arctic sea ice or conducted research in this area? I'm not seeing any Ph.D in atmospheric physics here ... this stuff can get real complicated in a hurry. A certified meteorologist in the US is just someone who has passed a multiple choice test with >75% correct answers.

The slide show below takes the last frame of Zack's instructive last-sixty-day Jaxa animation (false color RGB 36H 36V 18V, explained and animated here many many times in past seasons) and compares it to AMSR2 of the last two days and changes in the ice (most notably a large flash freeze just north of Severnaya Zemlya).

I've gotten quite enthused about a new technique of passing temporarily to very low bit indexed color space to clear out unwanted rubbish and for posterized contours without boundary grays (which allows automated class quantification by simple pixel valuel readout in ImageJ). It is really the answer to muddy palettes and low resolution imagery that has to be resized, as there's no practical way to make a lingua franca using raw data from dozens of disparate sources other than through their graphical output. The method being used at Gimp is quite clever but completely undocumented (except perhaps somewhere in the millions of lines of code). Gimp 2.9.2 is finally out which will be a big help next Sentinel 2AB season.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2016, 04:53:32 PM by A-Team »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #951 on: November 22, 2016, 04:40:45 PM »
Meteorologist/journalist Eric Holthaus gives a shout-out to the Forum as "a fairly obscure message board of sea ice enthusiasts"

Cheeky so and so. Wipneus is now world famous!

At least Eric linked to roughly the right place, even though he doesn't appear to have read a whole lot in this thread as yet.
"The evil that is in the world always comes from ignorance, and good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence, if they lack understanding." Albert Camus, The Plague

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #952 on: November 22, 2016, 05:30:51 PM »
Meteorologist/journalist Eric Holthaus gives a shout-out to the Forum as "a fairly obscure message board of sea ice enthusiasts"

Cheeky so and so. Wipneus is now world famous!

At least Eric linked to roughly the right place, even though he doesn't appear to have read a whole lot in this thread as yet.

just want to throw in that fame and other means to achieve felt superiority are among the main drivers of the capitalistic system as it presents itself now and hence in big part responsible for the calamitis mankind is in and is heading into.

generally, and not meaning any specific person, fame to me means suspicion because people with a real understanding of ethics and problems in humanity would do everything to remain low profile and avoid fame.

why am i saying this is because i believe that people who seek fame (and profit) cannot at the same time stand for unbiased and ethically clean results of their work and im totally convinced that WIP has not the slightest intent to be or become "famous" but that he is dedicated to the topic "cause". just my 2 cents on that topic.

of course it's better to do the right thing for the wrong motives but then the wrong motives will sooner or later lead to disaster which is which is why so many promising and good causes ended up in "religious" wars and the likes while religious is not only meant literally the believes in one or another god, there are many more groups that develop "religious" attitudes" and mechanisms.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #953 on: November 22, 2016, 05:50:13 PM »
This video helped me understand Global Atmospheric Circulation better.

 

That led me to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXuGYSM2D8k&feature=youtu.be#t=22.776656

We, of course, are more interested in the PV, but sometimes it helps to review the whole.  Besides -- it's kind of interesting to see what is being taught in at least some schools these days.  (It is somewhat longer.)

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #954 on: November 22, 2016, 06:16:23 PM »
no cookie won.

there is no link

The strength of the southern hemisphere polar jet is being impacted by an expanding Hadely Cell, just as it is in the north, the expansion is being caused by reductions in regional upper tropospheric SO2 from southeast asia and the increase in water vapor from the last El Nino. 

It will be interesting to see if this next melt season is more cloudy and stormy (and colder) than even 2013 and 2014.

Would you happen to know where to get a diagram of the expanded Hadley cell? I know what a normal Hadley cell looks like. I have been trying to understand these for a while now, but find very little info on them. Especially curious as to how these transport tropical air so far; are they connecting to the jet streams or are they taking the air directly to the Polar Regions?

There are a number of online courses provided on Youtube from Yale, MIT and Chicago on the subject, you can read about it here, with graphs and charts:  http://www.ncaor.gov.in/files/Science_News/Poles.pdf  There are also simple webpages on the subject.  I am sure you have seen some of them. 
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #955 on: November 22, 2016, 07:29:20 PM »
Last year, during the El Niño there were very strong, perhaps record strong, Madden Julian Tropical convection events that propagated eastwards along the equator. This organized tropical wave affects global atmospheric wave patterns all the way up to the top of the stratosphere in the winter months. Sudden stratospheric warming events can cause high pressure to develop over the pole or Alaksa & the Beaufort sea by blocking atmospheric waves. Thus there may be a connection between tropical convection and the Arctic oscillation.

This stuff is very complicated and the physics is above my pay grade.

See this link to read about important peer reviewed research on this.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Chaim_strat_paper.pdf

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #956 on: November 22, 2016, 07:56:36 PM »
Last year, during the El Niño there were very strong, perhaps record strong, Madden Julian Tropical convection events that propagated eastwards along the equator.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Chaim_strat_paper.pdf
Sir Fish I have to say that it's funny how misnomers spread on the interwebs. Somewhere, I also picked up the story that the MJOs during our recent Nino were extreme. So a couple months back I asked Eric Webb, a hurricane specialist at NHC. "In hindsight, any ideas why MJO was so anomalously active during our latest nino?"  Eric "Not sure. It didn't seem very extreme to me." 

In keeping with forum etiquette, we should take this discussion back to its thread "2016 (and historic) Polar Vortex/SSW effects on Ice" http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1779.0.html

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #957 on: November 22, 2016, 08:02:57 PM »
I'm totally convinced that WIP has not the slightest intent to be or become "famous".

Agreed. A truth which I had hoped would underscore my attempt at Great British ironic humour.

As A-Team put it not so very long ago:

Quote
Wipneus had it fully documented years ago every step of the way if [Eric had] been paying attention.
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ericholthaus

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #958 on: November 22, 2016, 08:34:41 PM »
Meteorologist/journalist Eric Holthaus gives a shout-out to the Forum as "a fairly obscure message board of sea ice enthusiasts"

Cheeky so and so. Wipneus is now world famous!

At least Eric linked to roughly the right place, even though he doesn't appear to have read a whole lot in this thread as yet.

Quote
amateur meteorologist Holthaus gives a shout-out to the Forum as "a fairly obscure message board of sea ice enthusiasts"
A bit patronizing. Does he know of a better site? Has he previously demonstrated any in-depth knowledge of Arctic sea ice or conducted research in this area? I'm not seeing any Ph.D in atmospheric physics here ... this stuff can get real complicated in a hurry. A certified meteorologist in the US is just someone who has passed a multiple choice test with >75% correct answers.

I'm Eric Holthaus, and just for the record wanted to say that I have a BS in meteorology from Saint Louis University and a MA in climate science from Columbia University. Sorry to offend by referring to the board as "obscure" or to its members as "enthusiasts". I've been following discussions here for years.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #959 on: November 22, 2016, 09:34:37 PM »
The MJO/SSW discussion is very relevant to what's happening now because stratospheric polar vortex splitting and warming events are presently driving the AO negative - forcing high pressure over the Arctic.

As for the MJO last year, the figure speaks for itself. The MJO events were very intense and they persisted.

Figure source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

& welcome Eric. I've been lurking for years, too.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #960 on: November 22, 2016, 09:37:48 PM »
 Welcome Eric. You got to admire somebody that takes things head on; best way to clear the air.
I don't know how you could have worded things any better. While there are some world class experts on the forum, there are also some of us that are still learning on here.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #961 on: November 22, 2016, 09:43:42 PM »
I'm Eric Holthaus, and just for the record wanted to say that I have a BS in meteorology from Saint Louis University and a MA in climate science from Columbia University. Sorry to offend by referring to the board as "obscure" or to its members as "enthusiasts". I've been following discussions here for years.

Well, the forum is a bit obscure. Maybe I should change the colour scheme.  ;)

Great to read that you've come here occasionally over the years, Eric. You're not the only one scientist/journalist to do so. That means the forum is serving one of its purposes, besides being a club for sea ice enthusiasts.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2016, 10:31:42 PM by Neven »
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #962 on: November 22, 2016, 09:45:01 PM »
+1

Random_Weather

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #963 on: November 22, 2016, 09:48:41 PM »
@ FishOutofWater

You make it much to easy, to most recent warm in arctic comes from cylones which going up to the central arctic and because of less ice on the atlantic side, it had adverts very warm and moist air to the central arctic.

And the AO is a troposheric pattern, it is influenced by stratosphere (Bottom up Top down) but most frome troposhere itself and the last one is very more energetic relevant, so read here:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract

If you not able to get byond the paywall, here figure 4 : http://fs5.directupload.net/images/161028/ptnzt92r.png

Random_Weather

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #964 on: November 22, 2016, 09:58:18 PM »
or in other words, the recents heat in arctic is not just a result of weather, but the state of sea ice itself act like an amplifier and so on, its not really a wonder that it comes to so strong positive anomaly.

And had nothing to do with SSW-Effects on the polar vortex which is currently completly intact or see here: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ ( in a few days there should be a minor warming just short shut down westerlies which very quick recovers)

Random_Weather

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #965 on: November 22, 2016, 10:04:23 PM »
You say:

" what's happening now because stratospheric polar vortex splitting and warming events are presently driving the AO negative"

Thats wrong, up in to 30mb the vortex is quite stable and is not splitting the coming days, the turn to negative AO comes from troposhere itself

Random_Weather

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #966 on: November 22, 2016, 10:16:14 PM »
And not the forget, the high pressure system is currently cooling down the inner arctic, just look here: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_arctic/ANOM2m_trend_arctic.html

Moreover, low geopot goes back to the arctic ocean while near suface the high pressure can be hold, so arctic becomes cooler and asia becomes more warmer

(Soory for so much posts in a row

charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #967 on: November 23, 2016, 12:21:23 AM »
If anyone is looking at Climate Reanalzer. they have just changed their website substantially - so existing links / favourites may not co-operate:

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/CR_blog/

##
11/22/2016 — New Interface for Forecast and Climate Maps
Posted by Sean Birkel
The weather forecast maps page has been completely revamped! The new interface, cci-reanalyzer.org/wxrmaps/, now provides access to maps of daily reanalysis, sea ice concentration, U.S. gridded temperature and precipitation in addition to global 7-day, U.S. regional 48-hour, and U.S. super high resolution 18-hour weather forecasts. The best way to learn about the new interface is to try it out! Example images are shown below.
Note: This blog is updated infrequently. Refer to the Climate Reanalyzer Facebook page for more regular updates.
##
Not sure where this is best posted - maybe Admin can advise, but I think many watch this thread... 

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #968 on: November 23, 2016, 12:45:53 AM »
Forecasts can and do go south but there's still a pretty good stratospheric warming according to the ECMWF model. See figure below.

And here's what Dr. Judah Cohen says.
 https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
Yes it's complicated:

Impacts

It is my opinion that it has been a fall season of superlatives not the least of which is the anemic growth of sea ice in the Arctic during October and November.  Sea ice extent actually decreased this past week in the Arctic, which may be unprecedented (admittedly I am not a sea ice expert) but regardless Arctic sea ice remains at record low extent.  In contrast, Eurasian snow cover has remained consistently well above normal and has been at decadal highs since the middle of October.  To me these are strong signals that the Arctic is a much more dynamic region than in the past in large part due to rapid rise of temperatures and moisture.  It is in my opinion that the extensive Eurasian snow cover and limited Arctic sea ice contributed to an unprecedented early PV split and more weakening of the PV is predicted for this week with no foreseeable reversal.   Extended periods of time in the fall where the PV is continuously weak is rare and I believe complicates the forecast.  We have overlapping PV weakenings, downward propagation and upward energy transfer that constructively and destructively interfere with each other.  This has not only made it difficult to discern the signals that I like to monitor but has made it difficult for the operational weather models to accurately forecast the weather patterns and atmospheric circulation in the medium range.  I expect the forecast challenges to continue in the near term.  But regardless the extensive Eurasian snow cover, the reduced Arctic sea ice and the stronger than normal Siberian high all indicate at least one significant PV weakening event/SSW during the winter months followed by an extended period of severe winter weather across the NH continents including East Asia and/or Europe and/or the Eastern US.

It is my opinion that the circulation anomalies from the PV split earlier this month are trying to propagate down into the troposphere, which would result in increased polar cap height anomalies in the troposphere.  Now this building of heights is encountering destructive interference from a predicted increase in upward Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) for this week that favors lowering of PCH in the troposphere.  The strong Siberian high favors increased WAFz yet the induced negative AO from the earlier PV split inhibits WAFz.  How to combine these competing effects is difficult for the models and presents unique challenges of predicting the weather in the coming weeks.  Therefore I expect continued model volatility in the short term.

Across Eurasia the most important large scale forcing may be the predicted increase in WAFz this week.  Upward WAFz favors the weakening of the Siberian high and the models are predicting a dramatic reduction in sea level pressure anomalies across northwest Asia.  The increased WAFz is predicted to cause further disruption to an already perturbed PV and nudge the PV out of the North Atlantic and into northern Siberia.  This new configuration of the PV favors lower pressures at the surface across Siberia consistent with the model forecasts.  Though I think there remains much uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the predicted pressure anomaly reversals.  In the near term the cold air that has spread out from Siberia during the first half of November into Europe and East Asia should once again become more concentrated across Siberia.

With the main PV center spiraling towards Siberia, allows for geopotential height rises across the North American Arctic.  The models are predicting that pressures will build in the troposphere as well across Alaska and Northern Canada.  Positive geopotential height anomalies across all of Northern Canada favors negative geopotential height anomalies across the US.  This pattern may not be necessarily a cold pattern but is potentially a snowy pattern across Southern Canada and the Northern US.  However building heights across the higher latitudes of the North America sector could eventually build strong surface Arctic high pressure that subsequently discharges into the US.  Initially the coldest weather is likely directed into the Western US but should slide eastward with time.


I've been struggling to understand how the stratosphere (and vice-versa) affects Arctic sea ice for several years. It's an insanely difficult problem but some very smart scientists have made some progress on it.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #969 on: November 23, 2016, 01:04:28 AM »
I'm Eric Holthaus, and just for the record wanted to say that I have a BS in meteorology from Saint Louis University and a MA in climate science from Columbia University. Sorry to offend by referring to the board as "obscure" or to its members as "enthusiasts". I've been following discussions here for years.
Welcome Eric and apology accepted.  We appreciate and look forward to seeing more of your efforts to raise awareness about the climate crisis we are now entering. 

I think I safely say all of us are keen to offer you and others like you every possible bit of ammunition we can provide in presenting the science and state of the arctic.  We're all in this together.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #970 on: November 23, 2016, 02:51:14 AM »
A pretty good jump in NSIDC SIE numbers in just a couple days.

2016,    11,  19,      8.560,     
2016,    11,  20,      8.671,     
2016,    11,  21,      8.905,
2016,     11,  22,      8.983, updated
« Last Edit: November 23, 2016, 11:12:45 PM by Tigertown »
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #971 on: November 23, 2016, 03:02:29 AM »
Randomweather, thanks for the link to the blue ocean Arctic article.

Note that the warm Arctic and cold Siberia creates a tripole with the warm Indonesian seas and the warm west Pacific.

We are seeing that  tripole right now. That article's "findings" are very consistent with what's going on right now.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #972 on: November 23, 2016, 07:13:44 AM »
It is my opinion that the circulation anomalies from the PV split earlier this month are trying to propagate down into the troposphere, which would result in increased polar cap height anomalies in the troposphere. 

Oh yeah?

How is this for 'propagating down to the troposphere'?

850hPa Arctic wind map from 7 days ago (Nov 15, 2016)

Seriously, you can't make this stuff up.  how could the stratosphere possibly affect this complete breach of the polar vortex by midlatitude expansions of water vapor into the polar cell???

 ::)
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #973 on: November 23, 2016, 07:38:09 AM »
while more intense in this post 2015 El Nino world, this kind of tropospheric latent heat push into the arctic is not new, as Fancis and Vavrus noted in 2012 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/abstract

------
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.msg26331.html#msg26331
Blocking system in north West pacific pushing massive volumes of water vapor north to feed the arctic low.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/19/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/equirectangular=-187.32,62.03,586

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meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #974 on: November 23, 2016, 09:01:01 AM »
Yeah it's so friggin complicated: where is ice above it should be cold airmasses.
With Arctic Sea Ice poofing, this cold air gets ripped in half - with two centers above the last remaining bastion in the NH- Greenland & Siberian Permafrost.
Now, basically over Siberia

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-348.24,92.38,315

Which dynamic suggests that even Greenland starting to lose its Force, Luke...

Enjoy the Ride. Instead of looking for peer- reviewed Articles on common sense processes.


Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #975 on: November 23, 2016, 05:23:22 PM »
Nov. 22nd from 2012 to 2016.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Random_Weather

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #976 on: November 23, 2016, 07:43:49 PM »
FishOutofWater,

The thing is, i disagree on the stratosphere point, because the data support that the troposhere alone leads to AO-negative regime and its because of the less sea ice and the energy in the arctic ocean. This could, of course lead to an weaking of the stratosphere polar vortex, which has not happend jet. Look here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png stratosphere in arctic has up to now cooler then the mean

If we get a stratosphere signal which be strong enough to propagate, we will see it like a major warming not just as minor warmings

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #977 on: November 23, 2016, 08:07:15 PM »
The obvious is the obvious. The intrusion of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic seas is obviously the primary factor in the recent melt event. And it's the elephant in the room for the loss and thinning of sea ice over the last 20 years. The large increase in atmospheric water vapor is rapidly increasing the greenhouse effect over the Arctic and the presence of warm sea water enhances cloudiness which reduces heat loss to space. So, we agree on the main point.

The research by Judah Cohen is interesting and relevant but obviously the advection of warm water from the Atlantic into the Arctic involves massive amounts of heat into the region that just suffered the stunning loss of sea ice. The storm mixed warm Atlantic water from below into the layer below the ice, causing rapid melting. The permanent poleward advance of warm salty ice free Atlantic water is pretty damn frightening to me because it will permanently change the NH climate.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #978 on: November 23, 2016, 08:49:15 PM »
The Economist links to Zack's tweet of Wipneus' graph of global sea ice area:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/11/daily-chart-14

Quote
A recent graph tweeted by a PhD student showing a dramatic drop in global sea-ice area over the past three months has caused a stir in the climate science community, although the NSIDC reportedly takes issue with the way its Arctic and Antarctic data are combined. Less controversial but equally alarming is the NSIDC's latest data release, which indicates that sea-ice extent in the Arctic is currently around 2m km² below average, the lowest November figure on record.

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meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #979 on: November 23, 2016, 08:58:27 PM »
Speaking of the Economist-

I guess their 2015 New Year's Cover is most fitting for 2017

http://vigilantcitizen.com/vigilantreport/economist-2015-cover-filled-cryptic-symbols-dire-predictions/

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #980 on: November 23, 2016, 08:59:56 PM »
What is the world coming to?

To this Forum, it seems.  ;)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #981 on: November 23, 2016, 09:05:35 PM »
I'm Eric Holthaus

Welcome Eric! Please feel free to "unlurk" more often. Another new paper that possibly addresses your "scientists... trying to explain it."?

Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming

Quote
Arctic cloud cover has been increasing in October, with about a 1-month lag behind the sea ice reduction. The delayed response leads to extensive sea ice reductions because the heat and moisture fluxes from the underlying open ocean into the atmosphere are enhanced.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #982 on: November 23, 2016, 09:38:50 PM »
FishOutofWater,

The thing is, i disagree on the stratosphere point, because the data support that the troposhere alone leads to AO-negative regime and its because of the less sea ice and the energy in the arctic ocean. This could, of course lead to an weaking of the stratosphere polar vortex, which has not happend jet. Look here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png stratosphere in arctic has up to now cooler then the mean

If we get a stratosphere signal which be strong enough to propagate, we will see it like a major warming not just as minor warmings
I'm conditionally in RW's camp here.  As FooW points out, we have huge, in-region active heat and moisture sources *now*, in the form of the warm Atlantic water intruding into the Barents and elsewhere on the Atlantic side.  This drastically reduces, perhaps even eliminates the the need for imported heat from lower latitudes required to disrupt Arctic weather. 

RW is illustrating that we are seeing what in the past would be the expected outcome of an SSW - high-latitude storms, cold displacement, excess heat and moisture north of 65 degrees - but not the corresponding changes in stratospheric circulation.

*When* we have an SSW, which quite likely will happen later this season, we'll get both the effect of the in-region heat, and *more* heat than is currently being imported as a side effect of that event.

The underlying key point I think we need to keep in mind, and which is critical in supporting the events we see unfolding, is the net increases in system enthalpy that have taken place.  There is a huge amount of additional heat, actively seeking colder places to go, and not finding them; at least not fast enough that regional temperatures can approach anything like our average baseline. 

The prompt problem right now isn't GHG forcing or heat exchange, its the sheer volume of heat in the atmosphere and ocean.  It's the thermal equivalent of flood water which has swamped the region.  There is just too much of it for the drainage to handle. It has just stacked up waiting its turn to move elsewhere, in some places creating the ludicrous situation of forcing the "drainage" to flow backwards - 250K of sea ice melt/compaction in mid November.

The pot - our climate - is now metaphorically coming to a boil.  I suspect signals which we previously were able to use to make fairly skillful short to mid-term predictions are going to become increasingly unreliable as more chaos enters the system.  Long term, predictions of things like state change in climate (e.g. ice free arctic) have now become much more solid.
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ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #983 on: November 24, 2016, 05:42:37 AM »
Accumulated Freezing Degree Days continue their downward slope thru 23 Nov


Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #984 on: November 24, 2016, 07:19:44 AM »
An interesting paper that may have some relevance here:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract


It's paywalled, unfortunately. (If anybody has access to a copy, that'd be fantastic).

The supplementary material is pretty damn interesting. Particularly the AICE and lm30 runs and their net effect on the strat and trop. vortices:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/2016GL070526/asset/supinfo/grl55007-sup-0001-Supplementary.pdf?v=1&s=4b6d8581cbb4bb525b218e2e2ee389c504fd3624

Interestingly, in their experiment, the weakening and spatial pattern of the changes to the strat. PV (100mb level in this case) match the current ice state -- a weakening over the pole and a shift towards Siberia. The circulation changes going forward as ice decreases in their model are pretty drastic.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #985 on: November 24, 2016, 08:10:45 AM »
Everyone including myself keeps saying that thickness of sea ice is going to be the hardest hit of all metrics coming out of this freezing season. I find it hard to believe the numbers that many of the thickness models are putting out. On the average I feel that these numbers from the Blog are within reason of what to expect, and maybe a little higher by the current date. I just can't see how the ice could be growing much in thickness. No? Yes?

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S.Pansa

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #986 on: November 24, 2016, 08:14:15 AM »
An interesting paper that may have some relevance here:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract


(If anybody has access to a copy, that'd be fantastic).



Free copy is available via researchgate.net

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #987 on: November 24, 2016, 10:08:12 AM »
I just can't see how the ice could be growing much in thickness. No? Yes?

Temperatures may be above "normal", but they're still well below the freezing point of sea water. Hence (in the absence of cyclones!) ice thickness will be increasing thermodynamically , albeit not as quickly as "usual". Average thickness at the moment is held down by all the new, thin ice around the periphery.

Which numbers in particular do you find "hard to believe"?
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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #988 on: November 24, 2016, 11:06:52 AM »
The change in thermal conditions as areas loose permanent ice cover will be dramatic, wont they?
To freeze/melt water needs 334 KJ/kg.  To cool/heat ice needs just 2 KJ/kgK and to cool/heat water needs 4.2 KJ/kgK

While freezing does occur beneath established ice, it only occurs at a relatively slow pace due to the insulating properties of ice which protect the base of the ice sheet from the cold above while it deals with the warmth from the water below. 

So I suspect that its the reduction in open sea areas where the initial phase change is occurring that will have the major effect on where heat ends up.  Right now we see a reduction in extent (i.e. of areas where phase change is occurring) which is unprecedented in the modern record.  Not good.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2016, 12:02:59 PM by Adam Ash »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #989 on: November 24, 2016, 01:54:59 PM »
I just can't see how the ice could be growing much in thickness. No? Yes?

Which numbers in particular do you find "hard to believe"?
For example,(from DMI, I think)
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ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #990 on: November 24, 2016, 02:09:26 PM »
I just can't see how the ice could be growing much in thickness. No? Yes?

Temperatures may be above "normal", but they're still well below the freezing point of sea water. Hence (in the absence of cyclones!) ice thickness will be increasing  , albeit not as quickly as "usual". Average thickness at the moment is held down by all the new, thin ice around the periphery.

Which numbers in particular do you find "hard to believe"?

It is difficult to for any new ice N70 to have reached 0.6m thickness by now.  The accumulated Freezing Degree Days simply do not support it thermodynamically.  It takes over 1200 - 1500  FDDs to grow 1m of  ice from the onset of freezing (and more FDDs to cool the water column sufficiently to start freezing).  N80 FDDs are less than half that amount.  N70 even fewer.

Yet there are places on the thickness maps that show new ice already between 1.5 and 3m.  Very, very unlikely.

pccp82

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #991 on: November 24, 2016, 02:16:39 PM »
I just can't see how the ice could be growing much in thickness. No? Yes?

Temperatures may be above "normal", but they're still well below the freezing point of sea water. Hence (in the absence of cyclones!) ice thickness will be increasing thermodynamically , albeit not as quickly as "usual". Average thickness at the moment is held down by all the new, thin ice around the periphery.

Which numbers in particular do you find "hard to believe"?

like Tigertown, at first glance i was expecting 2016 to be the lowest. forgive me if this was answered elsewhere, but is the average thickness graph dividing by a fixed number for area, or is it dividing by the areas with some sea ice?


Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #992 on: November 24, 2016, 02:22:58 PM »
I think that what is happening is that these instruments detect the thickest ice and then determine the rest in percentages compared to the thickest. That being the case, a core has to be taken to calibrate at least one thickness. I think the instruments are are still calibrated to the way the ice was in the past, not what is there now. And it may not necessarily be the satellite instruments so much as the computer model that interprets the data.
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Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #993 on: November 24, 2016, 03:23:28 PM »
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Yet there are places on the thickness maps that show new ice already between 1.5 and 3m.  Very, very unlikely.

Maybe compaction can do that?

If I remember correctly from prior posts, these models have a larger margin of error when dealing with thin ice. 
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ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #994 on: November 24, 2016, 03:38:16 PM »
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Yet there are places on the thickness maps that show new ice already between 1.5 and 3m.  Very, very unlikely.

Maybe compaction can do that?

If I remember correctly from prior posts, these models have a larger margin of error when dealing with thin ice.

Compaction would affect extent, but not thickness.  It would take ridging to increase thickness, but that would not affect average thickness much.  Where that is likely to happen are in the "ice factories" - but that isn't what we see in the thickness maps. 

The thickness growth models are empirical models based on basic thermodynamics combined with observations.  I don't know if they are biased on any particular thickness.  There are various formulas and they imply fairly large uncertainties - but not on the order of what's implied by the thickness maps versus thermodynamics. I.e., regardless which formula you choose (Lebedev, Berillo, etc), 600 FDDs is not going to create anywhere near 1.5m of new ice. 

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #995 on: November 24, 2016, 03:43:17 PM »
Interestingly, I find the scale on the Navy HYCOM model more believable, though I understand it to be a model and not an actual image. It simply makes sense, knowing what ice was left over at the end of the melt season and what ice is newer.
The amount of ice one meter thick and less goes along with what ktonine is saying about the number of FDD's.
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ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #996 on: November 24, 2016, 04:35:59 PM »
Interestingly, I find the scale on the Navy HYCOM model more believable, though I understand it to be a model and not an actual image. It simply makes sense, knowing what ice was left over at the end of the melt season and what ice is newer.
The amount of ice one meter thick and less goes along with what ktonine is saying about the number of FDD's.

Yes, HYCOM's thickness is perfectly believable based on the past two months of temperatures. 

Compare it to what we saw for extent and the vast stretches of open water back at minima. For instance here's Sept. 5th:



An entire quadrant of the Arctic Ocean was basically devoid of ice.  That has to all be new growth - it can't be explained by transport.  And temperatures simply haven't been cold enough to generate 1m thicknesses. 




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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #997 on: November 24, 2016, 04:48:25 PM »
And if winter temps remain anomalously warm, we might very well see another early ice free ocean on the Pacific side. Looking at that image, I doubt there will be any thick MYI imported to the Beaufort to protect the pole. Where would it come from?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #998 on: November 24, 2016, 04:50:47 PM »
Meanwhile, the Kara Sea resists freezing in an unprecedented manner while the Barents stands a very real possibility of being nearly ice free entering next years melt season.

nick

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #999 on: November 24, 2016, 05:08:17 PM »
Both the "DMI" and "HYCOM" charts above are actually derived from different implementations of the HYCOM-CICE model (run by the DMI and the US Navy respectively) so I suspect any major differences are down to the shading on the scale.

If CryoSat's observations are wrong (and note the observation lag) then ESA has wasted hundreds of millions of euros.

Picking and choosing data based on your preconceptions will take you down a dark road.