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subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2450 on: February 02, 2017, 10:40:20 AM »
TT admittedly my knowledge is limited but the moisture forecasted to arrive with all that heat from both sides over the next week( at least) seems really impressive

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2451 on: February 02, 2017, 11:39:07 AM »
Article by Jason Samenow has a lot of familiar names and charts.

I've been fighting the good fight over there. My report from the trenches:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/01/global-sea-ice-extent-reaches-lowest-ever-level/#comment-217634
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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2452 on: February 02, 2017, 12:14:22 PM »
Just want to point out a local FDD map would be very interesting in itself.
However, you cannot calculate ice thickness from that, as the resulting ice keeps moving, and as the initial conditions might differ in each location. In principle you would need to integrate initial ice concentration in each thickness bin, local temps, and ice movement. The result would be, I guess, PIOMAS...

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2453 on: February 02, 2017, 01:07:13 PM »
Just want to point out a local FDD map would be very interesting in itself.
However, you cannot calculate ice thickness from that, as the resulting ice keeps moving, and as the initial conditions might differ in each location. In principle you would need to integrate initial ice concentration in each thickness bin, local temps, and ice movement. The result would be, I guess, PIOMAS...

Yeap!!
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2454 on: February 02, 2017, 01:09:51 PM »
Speaking of drift, after about 4 days on the GFS forecast winds turn around for several days to promote more Bering St export

CognitiveBias

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2455 on: February 02, 2017, 02:08:45 PM »
...
  However, the FDD daily map itself is actually dead easy to do given the daily temperature maps for the Arctic Basin. As I said, one simply increments the FDD value at each location by the degrees freezing for the day at that location. Done!

  That procedure gives a perfectly well defined FDD-to-date map.

   I would suggest also that this FDD is intrinsically interesting - it tells you how cold each location or region of the Arctic Basin has been during the freezing season. That extends greatly on e.g. the one parameter information available from the FDD 80N graph.

  The maps can be compared for different years. E.g. "has the Beaufort Sea been colder than usual this freeze season?"

 
 The FDD 80N graph itself can be derived from the FDD-to-date maps, as can FDD graphs for the entire Arctic Basin or for any other defined region. So the maps are useful for that purpose as well.

...

Thanks for you posts extending on my localized temperature post, slow wing.  I had hoped some might find this data 'intrinsically interesting' as I do.  You have provided the logical next step I was looking for, and my next project.   

--CB

iceman

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2456 on: February 02, 2017, 02:31:10 PM »
   ....
I have further heard a lot of discussion here on the level of export out of the Fram and Nares.  But I don't think I've come across a site that has produced data on how much ice has been exported historically and how this year compares to the historic average or the years acknowledged as having a lot of export.

So I just want to clarify if we have data on this or it is mostly anecdotal evidence based on years of observing the satellite pictures.  I do recognize this is likely a hard thing to quantify as it would presumably be based on volume and the volume metrics seem to be sporadic, not in agreement with other ways to measure volume, and taken as a whole instead of region specific.
  ....

Anyone have an answer to Koop's question?  Last time I went looking, only thing I found was the PIOMAS-derived graph on Wipneus' ArctischePinguin site - which ends around 2013.

My sense is that Fram export has a disproportionate effect on preconditioning for the melt season.  It's not just volume loss but some of the oldest, dense and low-salinity ice, setting sail into the Atlantic at the worst time of year.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2457 on: February 02, 2017, 02:33:43 PM »
Just want to point out a local FDD map would be very interesting in itself.

I used to plot "local FDD/thickness/movement" maps. See for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/

Unfortunately the data source seems to have dried up:

https://imb.erdc.dren.mil/newdata.htm

Perhaps the new POTUS will beef up that bit of his military arsenal?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2458 on: February 02, 2017, 05:21:18 PM »
Just want to point out a local FDD map would be very interesting in itself.
However, you cannot calculate ice thickness from that, as the resulting ice keeps moving, and as the initial conditions might differ in each location. In principle you would need to integrate initial ice concentration in each thickness bin, local temps, and ice movement. The result would be, I guess, PIOMAS...

...Probably better than PIOMAS given the improved granularity of sentinel data. If you tracked recognizable features from that and iteratively remapped them onto a deformable grid, you could have a reasonable shot at compiling a day-by-day record of past conditions?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2459 on: February 02, 2017, 05:50:51 PM »
Just want to point out a local FDD map would be very interesting in itself.

I used to plot "local FDD/thickness/movement" maps. See for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/

Unfortunately the data source seems to have dried up:

https://imb.erdc.dren.mil/newdata.htm

Perhaps the new POTUS will beef up that bit of his military arsenal?
If I've counted correctly, this was the 100,000th post on the ASIF. Well done, Jim, and all those who wrote the preceding 99,999 posts!
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2460 on: February 02, 2017, 06:02:12 PM »
Just want to point out a local FDD map would be very interesting in itself.

I used to plot "local FDD/thickness/movement" maps. See for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/

Unfortunately the data source seems to have dried up:

https://imb.erdc.dren.mil/newdata.htm

Perhaps the new POTUS will beef up that bit of his military arsenal?
If I've counted correctly, this was the 100,000th post on the ASIF. Well done, Jim, and all those who wrote the preceding 99,999 posts!

This speaks volumes for the type of discussions and behaviours you have established in this forum Neven. Thank you for a place of scientific debate.
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2461 on: February 02, 2017, 06:17:37 PM »
   ....
I have further heard a lot of discussion here on the level of export out of the Fram and Nares.  But I don't think I've come across a site that has produced data on how much ice has been exported historically and how this year compares to the historic average or the years acknowledged as having a lot of export.  ....
Anyone have an answer to Koop's question?  ...
Unfortunately, this is through 2012...
Fram Strait Sea Ice Volume Export 1992-2012 from Combined ULS and Satellite Data
Spreen, G.; Hansen, E.; Kwok, R.; Gerland, S.
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, abstract #C54A-05
... For the combined sea ice volume export some of this reduced ice thickness may compensate the increased ice area export in recent years. ...
In other words, volume export is approximately unchanging over time.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2462 on: February 02, 2017, 06:18:07 PM »
   ....
I have further heard a lot of discussion here on the level of export out of the Fram and Nares.  But I don't think I've come across a site that has produced data on how much ice has been exported historically and how this year compares to the historic average or the years acknowledged as having a lot of export.

So I just want to clarify if we have data on this or it is mostly anecdotal evidence based on years of observing the satellite pictures.  I do recognize this is likely a hard thing to quantify as it would presumably be based on volume and the volume metrics seem to be sporadic, not in agreement with other ways to measure volume, and taken as a whole instead of region specific.
  ....

Anyone have an answer to Koop's question?  Last time I went looking, only thing I found was the PIOMAS-derived graph on Wipneus' ArctischePinguin site - which ends around 2013.

My sense is that Fram export has a disproportionate effect on preconditioning for the melt season.  It's not just volume loss but some of the oldest, dense and low-salinity ice, setting sail into the Atlantic at the worst time of year.

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/7514221/

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2463 on: February 02, 2017, 07:17:34 PM »
If I've counted correctly, this was the 100,000th post on the ASIF. Well done, Jim, and all those who wrote the preceding 99,999 posts!

Gosh, what an honour! I had no idea.

Writing the 100,000th post did prompt me to mail my "man in the military" again. He tells me:

We are in the process of transferring over to the new site imb-crrel-dartmouth.org  so first - we just copied over what had been on the erdc.dren site.

Right now - we have a new member of our team - re-analyzing all 100 buoys that were deployed and we will be changing our site to reflect the updated data and plots (All the data will be in the same format etc.)

For 2017 - we already have buoys staged in Svalbard, Barrow Alaska and one here at the lab - as well as we are working on the new SIMB 3.0  with new electronics etc.... that we hopefully will deploy in Barrow this spring for testing - and then deploy 2-4 of the new buoys this summer. So we are hoping to be back in the buoy/ice mass balance data business again.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 07:25:29 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2464 on: February 02, 2017, 07:23:42 PM »
Cool. I thought buoys were in the process of becoming an extinct species.
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CognitiveBias

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2465 on: February 02, 2017, 07:54:29 PM »
I have processed historical FDDs at 3 degree increments, both lat. and long. over one quadrant of the Arctic.  The difficulty is in presentation for me.  Perhaps this will elicit some suggestions. 

Notable, other than the large drop for 2016, is the even larger drop approaching the Chukchi.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2466 on: February 02, 2017, 08:07:14 PM »
I have processed historical FDDs at 3 degree increments, both lat. and long. over one quadrant of the Arctic.

Interesting! Might I enquire where/how you acquire your ECMWF data?

Are your numbers based on zero or -1.8 Celsius? See:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg71753.html#msg71753
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CognitiveBias

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2467 on: February 02, 2017, 08:51:26 PM »
Jim,
  The ECMWF data is available for download from their website.  http://www.ecmwf.int/. 
I used ERA-Interim, Daily to get data back to 1979.     

I used 0 for FDD, which could easily be changed.  The trends that are on display should remain intact regardless of offset.  Was the debate ever definitively settled?

Thanks!

-CB

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2468 on: February 02, 2017, 09:45:16 PM »
   ....
I have further heard a lot of discussion here on the level of export out of the Fram and Nares.  But I don't think I've come across a site that has produced data on how much ice has been exported historically and how this year compares to the historic average or the years acknowledged as having a lot of export.

So I just want to clarify if we have data on this or it is mostly anecdotal evidence based on years of observing the satellite pictures.  I do recognize this is likely a hard thing to quantify as it would presumably be based on volume and the volume metrics seem to be sporadic, not in agreement with other ways to measure volume, and taken as a whole instead of region specific.
  ....

Anyone have an answer to Koop's question?  Last time I went looking, only thing I found was the PIOMAS-derived graph on Wipneus' ArctischePinguin site - which ends around 2013.

My sense is that Fram export has a disproportionate effect on preconditioning for the melt season.  It's not just volume loss but some of the oldest, dense and low-salinity ice, setting sail into the Atlantic at the worst time of year.

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/7514221/
Pity that's locked behind a pay wall, but just judging from the abstract, the conclusions are based  on synoptic conditions very different than we have now.

Particularly ...
- more mobile ice
- structurally weaker ice
- stronger forces being applied to it
- over longer periods of time
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2469 on: February 02, 2017, 10:03:51 PM »
Day to day conditions in the Arctic are allowing much more active weather, even when there are no major storms.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/03/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-38.82,93.36,546/loc=-74.488,77.582

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2470 on: February 02, 2017, 10:11:17 PM »
just thought I'd mention I am missing A-teams contributions .. no amount of distraction from current Arctic events by thread dilution is worth the loss of his talents .. b.c.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2471 on: February 02, 2017, 10:20:49 PM »
The following is decadal global temperature forecast of 25th January 2016 from the Hadley Centre, the research arm of the UK's Meteorological Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

On the 1981-2010 scale of global average temperature used as the base for the forecast (an unusual baseline). The warmest year, 2016, had an average temperature of 0.46 degrees Celsius above this baseline. Yet, the global average temperature for the 5 year 2017-2021 period is forecast to be between 0.42 and 0.89 degrees Celsius above the 1981 - 2010 global average, but is centred on a global temperature of 0.64 degrees Celsius.

This is 0.18 degrees Celsius above the temperature for 2016. This 5 year average temperature forecast is remarkable and would be very surprising especially bearing in mind that the Hadley Centre forecast is that 2017 will be slightly cooler than 2016 and 2015. Hence, the implications is that the average for 2018-21 is likely to be 0.2 degrees Celsius above the level for 2016. The forecast rise in global temperature is unlikely to be this large unless the Arctic sea ice melts away in late summer in which case the rise in global temperature could be larger than that forecasted.

Should this forecast turn out to be correct, a significant global climatic disruption is very likely. Based on this framework, the Arctic cryosphere will struggle greatly according to the climate models. All this whitout the current sea ice difficulties - only adding to bleak prospects for ice. Such a rapid rise in global temperature is likely to cause significant climatic destabilisation which might lead to further warming with catastrophic consequences especially from melting sea bed and permafrost soils.

While 2016 was 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period and if the forecast is correct then 2018-21 is likely to be 1.3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period. I must emphasise that this forecast should be widely noticed, especially in current sea ice context versus all IPCC forecasts for late sea ice survival until end of 21st century and needs much publicty.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2472 on: February 02, 2017, 10:25:47 PM »

I used ERA-Interim, Daily to get data back to 1979.
     

Thanks. Whenever I've wanted to look at ECMWF data in the past it was "operational" and hence unavailable to the average "citizen scientist". A wide range of reanalysis fields do indeed seem to be freely available.

I used 0 for FDD, which could easily be changed.  The trends that are on display should remain intact regardless of offset.  Was the debate ever definitively settled?

Certainly not definitively! PSC seem to be interested in land as well as sea, so I've stuck with the NSIDC's -1.8.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2473 on: February 02, 2017, 10:31:10 PM »
The following is decadal global temperature forecast of 25th January 2016 from the Hadley Centre, the research arm of the UK's Meteorological Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

On the 1981-2010 scale of global average temperature used as the base for the forecast (an unusual baseline). The warmest year, 2016, had an average temperature of 0.46 degrees Celsius above this baseline. Yet, the global average temperature for the 5 year 2017-2021 period is forecast to be between 0.42 and 0.89 degrees Celsius above the 1981 - 2010 global average, but is centred on a global temperature of 0.64 degrees Celsius.

This is 0.18 degrees Celsius above the temperature for 2016. This 5 year average temperature forecast is remarkable and would be very surprising especially bearing in mind that the Hadley Centre forecast is that 2017 will be slightly cooler than 2016 and 2015. Hence, the implications is that the average for 2018-21 is likely to be 0.2 degrees Celsius above the level for 2016. The forecast rise in global temperature is unlikely to be this large unless the Arctic sea ice melts away in late summer in which case the rise in global temperature could be larger than that forecasted.

Should this forecast turn out to be correct, a significant global climatic disruption is very likely. Based on this framework, the Arctic cryosphere will struggle greatly according to the climate models. All this whitout the current sea ice difficulties - only adding to bleak prospects for ice. Such a rapid rise in global temperature is likely to cause significant climatic destabilisation which might lead to further warming with catastrophic consequences especially from melting sea bed and permafrost soils.

While 2016 was 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period and if the forecast is correct then 2018-21 is likely to be 1.3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period. I must emphasise that this forecast should be widely noticed, especially in current sea ice context versus all IPCC forecasts for late sea ice survival until end of 21st century and needs much publicty.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2474 on: February 02, 2017, 10:40:44 PM »
More like 20.36 months from now.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2475 on: February 02, 2017, 11:31:25 PM »
Okay, on topic, please. We have a wonderful Global Surface Air Temperatures thread here.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2476 on: February 02, 2017, 11:40:19 PM »
There's even a (currently very short!) dedicated UK Met Office Decadal Forecasts thread.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2477 on: February 03, 2017, 02:32:35 AM »
DMI N80 Freezing Degree Days thru Feb 2, 2017
(Climatology = 1958 to 2002)

Accumulated FDDs
Climatology: 3095.9
2016-7:        1833.0
Anomaly:     -1262.9





Implied new ice thickness to date:
Per Lebedev:
Climo:   1.755 m
2016-7:  1.288 m

Per Bilello:
Climo:   1.408 m
2016-7:  1.039 m

subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2478 on: February 03, 2017, 02:53:46 AM »
I have processed historical FDDs at 3 degree increments, both lat. and long. over one quadrant of the Arctic.  The difficulty is in presentation for me.  Perhaps this will elicit some suggestions. 

Notable, other than the large drop for 2016, is the even larger drop approaching the Chukchi.

One could create a map of the basin with the sector borders marked which brought up the graph for each sector as the pointer hovers over it , with an interface to allow creating larger regions out of the sectors. That seems to me like an intuitive way to browse the data

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2479 on: February 03, 2017, 03:41:14 AM »
Just want to point out a local FDD map would be very interesting in itself.
However, you cannot calculate ice thickness from that, as the resulting ice keeps moving, and as the initial conditions might differ in each location. In principle you would need to integrate initial ice concentration in each thickness bin, local temps, and ice movement. The result would be, I guess, PIOMAS...

Yeap!!
Might be like re-inventing the wheel.


P.S. Good to hear from ktonine again.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2480 on: February 03, 2017, 03:59:54 AM »
P.S. Good to hear from ktonine again.

Thanks, I really need to add a "In memory of Andrew Slater" tag on the FDD graphs.  I only started them because I missed his.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2481 on: February 03, 2017, 04:46:53 AM »
An interesting analysis by Tamino

The most obvious change is that the cycles have gotten lower — simply because Arctic sea ice is going down overall. But we also see the more “pointy” minima around September and more flattened maxima around March, as well as the fact that since 2007 the cycle has shifted phase to occur a few days later in the year.

Sea Ice Seasonal Cycle

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2482 on: February 03, 2017, 05:12:50 AM »
...
  However, the FDD daily map itself is actually dead easy to do given the daily temperature maps for the Arctic Basin. As I said, one simply increments the FDD value at each location by the degrees freezing for the day at that location. Done!

  That procedure gives a perfectly well defined FDD-to-date map.

   I would suggest also that this FDD is intrinsically interesting - it tells you how cold each location or region of the Arctic Basin has been during the freezing season. That extends greatly on e.g. the one parameter information available from the FDD 80N graph.

  The maps can be compared for different years. E.g. "has the Beaufort Sea been colder than usual this freeze season?"

 
 The FDD 80N graph itself can be derived from the FDD-to-date maps, as can FDD graphs for the entire Arctic Basin or for any other defined region. So the maps are useful for that purpose as well.

...

Thanks for you posts extending on my localized temperature post, slow wing.  I had hoped some might find this data 'intrinsically interesting' as I do.  You have provided the logical next step I was looking for, and my next project.   

--CB
Great stuff! Thanks for following up.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2483 on: February 03, 2017, 05:59:32 AM »
aslan: Does anyone publish these charts on a regular basis or did you make these? I think it could be very important to keep up with this. I understood you to say this was from December 2016.
To illustrate, the data from December. The map presents the difference between temperature at 850 hPa and at 1000 hPa for the month of December :

Positive : no or weak thermal inversion, surface warmer than lowest layer of free atmosphere. Negative : the reverse.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2484 on: February 03, 2017, 09:01:09 AM »
I'm 'afraid' that my prediction ( max 13.25 - 13.50) seeing today's IJIS numbers is probably too low.

At first glance it is a little less dramatic then I feared, though I think we really can say something about the current ice sheet when it's August. And I'm in doubt if I should hope it is not as bad as I feared.

Bad news maybe/ hopefully could be a strong signal to the world and give us a chance to prevent too much global warming, but good news gives us maybe/ hopefully a little more time.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2485 on: February 03, 2017, 10:09:00 AM »
None of us are perfect predictors of the future, but yes, if things stay on the current course I'd now expect this year's peak will be similar to last year's.

Volume is another matter of course, never mind issues with high export etc. It'll be another interesting melting season to watch.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2486 on: February 03, 2017, 12:59:03 PM »
Another look back at the distribution of FDDs thru the end of last year, here are the 360 degree views at 72N, 75N and 78N.

The FDDs for these charts are still calculated using a zero base, although I do have the -1.8 base in the dataset.  If the charts with FDD( -1.8 ) end up being interesting I'll post those as well.

Since ECMWF has an up to 2 month lag on posting this data set I'm looking for a geo coded temperature data set that's up to date.  Forecasted data would be useful as well.  Suggestions appreciated.

The revelation for me is the deficit of FDDs on the Pacific side.

-CB


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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2487 on: February 03, 2017, 01:09:07 PM »
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2488 on: February 03, 2017, 02:12:20 PM »
Since ECMWF has an up to 2 month lag on posting this data set I'm looking for a geo coded temperature data set that's up to date.

You may wish to take a look at:

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Datasets/ncep.reanalysis/surface/

Perhaps we should take this conversation over to the Developer's Corner?
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2489 on: February 03, 2017, 02:56:49 PM »
Concentration is looking bad, pretty much all over. A large area in the CAB has developed, though these tend to move around, depending on the wind. Baffin Bay and anything near it is looking rough. I just can't see as well on anything other than www.polarview.aq/sic/arctic/  ...
Maybe A-Team will have something soon.

I think this worth noting.

meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2490 on: February 03, 2017, 03:21:11 PM »
As thick, multiyear Ice is exiting the Fram- so do some of the coldest Airmasses on the Planet leave the Arctic, for good, as the Vortex and Jetstream are collapsing:

charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2491 on: February 03, 2017, 03:26:46 PM »
While we wait to see NSIDC comments:

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-ecology/2017/02/was-russias-arctic-weather-2016

This was Russia’s Arctic weather in 2016
«These kind of temperatures have never before been registered in the region», the country’s Hydrometeorological Center says.

By Atle Staalesen February 03, 2017

The year 2016 became the warmest on the northern hemisphere on record, and temperatures in the Arctic were by far the most extreme, the research center says in a sum-up of the year.

Among the most extreme examples is the Island of Vize, the land located north of Novaya Zemlya, where average temperatures in January was 17 degrees Celsius above normal for the month..................

romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2492 on: February 03, 2017, 05:31:36 PM »
Svalbard Airport - melting started today, much of Sunday +4 Celsius. What is amazing - this continues until at least Feb 13.

lifeblack

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2493 on: February 03, 2017, 08:01:39 PM »
I have processed historical FDDs at 3 degree increments, both lat. and long. over one quadrant of the Arctic.  The difficulty is in presentation for me.  Perhaps this will elicit some suggestions. 


CognitiveBias, for presentation purposes I would suggest plotting color-coded FDD's on a map instead of via bar graphs, esp since you've already got lat/lon locations

BenB

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2494 on: February 03, 2017, 08:18:55 PM »
Maybe we'll see a bit of melting at the North Pole in a week  ;) :o


Pragma

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2495 on: February 03, 2017, 08:58:58 PM »
From the observations of the indigenous people of the arctic, to comments made by Mark Serreze and all those made by the members of this forum, it is painfully clear that something has radically changed very recently, as in the last three to five years. The permanence of the changes, of course, is a "wait and see" question.

In particular, I am interested in the large influx of heat, both via the atmosphere and the ocean. The atmospheric heat seems to be explained by higher amplitude Rossby waves and the influx via the Bering Strait has been attributed to the PDO. That said, the most dramatic heating seems to be on the Atlantic side.

As I understand it, the THC brushes past Ireland and then heads westward towards Iceland where it interacts with the colder and fresher arctic water. It then subducts while releasing a lot of heat to the atmosphere. As the lower latitudes of the arctic warm, it would seem to me that the Gulf Stream would tend to continue north until it encounters colder water.

There is a very deep trench east of Iceland that would facilitate this, extending up through Nares Strait into the CAB. As the incoming current would be at the surface, this would conflict with the large ice export seen through the Nares, but if the current went further east, it could enter the CAB on either side of FJL and then subduct into the very deep CAB and exit via Nares Strait. It could also just loop westward between Svalbard and Norway, into the trench south of Svalbard.

This is all just my conjecture but I am having trouble finding any literature that discusses changes in the circulation path. I have found several articles about the NAMOC slowing down, but that's about it. The slowing down would fit, as there is a ridge from Iceland along a line dotted with the Faroe Is. and the Shetland Is.

Any relevant links are most welcome and well as any thoughts. Feel free to tell me why I am off my rocker :-)

This may be marginally on topic for this years freezing season, but I didn't see a topic that was a better fit. Apologies if I am OT.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2496 on: February 03, 2017, 09:03:40 PM »
Yep, the 12Z GEFS, GFS, and EC are consistently going nuclear in 5-7 days.




RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2497 on: February 03, 2017, 09:18:01 PM »
Yep, the 12Z GEFS, GFS, and EC are consistently going nuclear in 5-7 days.

Seriously! A large part of the Atlantic side of the CAB will be above freezing for a day or two, not to mention the whole of the Barents sea and Greenland sea. It's going to be interesting to see the affect on the thin ice on the Atlantic front around Svalbard and FJL.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2498 on: February 03, 2017, 10:00:15 PM »
Yep, the 12Z GEFS, GFS, and EC are consistently going nuclear in 5-7 days.

Seriously! A large part of the Atlantic side of the CAB will be above freezing for a day or two, not to mention the whole of the Barents sea and Greenland sea. It's going to be interesting to see the affect on the thin ice on the Atlantic front around Svalbard and FJL.
Nominal, unless there is accompanying wind and wave action.  The major impact will be to retard ice formation and weaken existing ice by warming it, and causing its internal structure to change.

The high air temperatures by themselves will be unable to cause anything beyond trivial surface melt, perhaps a few MM at best.  The air masses simply don't carry enough heat with them.

Make no mistake, this is a pretty dire prediction at this point in the season, where so much heat has already interfered with ice formation.  With continuing weather like this, we could see huge expanses of the Arctic finishing the refreeze season with less than 1.5M of ice.  If this does turn out to be the case, it will require a miracle to avoid a catastrophic melt season.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2499 on: February 03, 2017, 10:14:09 PM »
<snip>
Any relevant links are most welcome and well as any thoughts. Feel free to tell me why I am off my rocker :-)

This may be marginally on topic for this years freezing season, but I didn't see a topic that was a better fit. Apologies if I am OT.

just see whether this is new for you, most discussion about THC and gulf stream are limited to the norther hemisphere and especially to the subarctic part, greenland meltwater and the likes, while there are discussions going on that the salinity of the current is related and perhaps even decided in the southern atlantic of the coast of namibia and southern africa. just have a look, sorry if it's not what you were looking for, nice weekend @all

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161005084916.htm
« Last Edit: February 03, 2017, 10:20:09 PM by magnamentis »
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