A little too late....
What if , over low Solar, the propensity for blocking in the Atlantic shifts north as spring approaches ? Maybe I should not have dismissed the return of 'The Perfect Melt Storm' so quickly ( lol)
High Pressure might aid us in the short term but if it sticks around through spring???
High pressure in ten days puts us at around day 50. By the time we get to day 100, it's pretty much over as far as freezing is concerned (thinking about 80N+ here - we're already too late over most of the peripheral seas). Presuming we hold temperatures down to an average of around 243K, that would be about 1500 FDD - or at max about 0.75M of thickening.
This presumes ice which isn't covered with insulating snow and just about optimal freezing conditions. Even if we get that, it will bring large stretches of ice up to just barely 2 meters, and won't thinken 2M+ ice much nearly that, especially if it has insulation.
If the high sticks around through spring, we're toast, as that means sunlight streaming into the already open Barents and Kara (which might freeze, but not much). Add to that ready easy melt in the form of available snow and it goes downhill rapidly.
We've seen the models predict colder weather about 10 days out a couple of times this season. Each time, the moisture cannon appears to stir itself back into action and force more heat back into high latitude. I'm pessimistic about this projection as well.
But again, even with optimal conditions, too little and as Dr. Tskoul notes, "too late".