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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #350 on: October 26, 2016, 06:31:09 PM »
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #351 on: October 26, 2016, 06:42:19 PM »
This is coming up via Climate Reanalyzer in about 3 days time or so.
<snip>

My point was, not that temperature were above zero, but that the distribution, and therefore the *flow* of heat is/will be well and truly scrambled, and not in any sort of way which is supportive to the production of ice, even if there's enough flow out of the ocean surface for some portions of it to freeze.
Oh, I agree with your points, wasn't disagreeing with you just mentioning. :)
Text is such an incomplete medium 😁

While I agree Greenland melt might produce cold pools, along with reduced thermo-haline flow, unlike what happened during the Dryas, I see total increased heat in the global system due to forcing overwhelming local conditions.

Rather, I see thermal buffering from Greenland melt and higher albedo acting more like a "lightning rod" for heat flow.  Over all, I think there is too much heat and too little sink to permit cold to persist even year over year.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #352 on: October 26, 2016, 07:11:49 PM »
I think that this winter will be brutal in terms of snowfall and sporadic severe cold spells, but it will be interrupted by prolonged heat spells. That pattern should repeat over most of the northern hemisphere except for places stuck in cold or hot spells. On average temperatures will be higher or at least not low enough to change the current path.
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #353 on: October 26, 2016, 08:00:49 PM »
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

"Swamped for no good reason"? The discussion is "on-topic" Oren, even if you don't agree with the argument.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #354 on: October 26, 2016, 08:59:43 PM »

It must be remembered that record snowfalls in September/October have a much larger impact on global albedo balance than they would in Dec/Jan as well. A substantial increase in autumnal snow cover will have a very large effect on planetary albedo forcing and I think (which is another reason that the anomalies this yr have been so persistently - across Eurasia).

Haha, Has an albedo effect? Did you even check the amount of sunlight of the angle of the sun at northern latitudes? Eg. Northern Quebec right now gets ~8hrs of sunlight, and the sun doesn't get up to 20degrees. There really isn't much sun's energy to deflect at this time of the year compared to the amount that the arctic ocean gets in midsummer.

Also, I think you're confusing the amount of snow with coverage. The snow isn't going to be falling earlier or further south, it's just going to be deeper. But deeper snow still melts off pretty quickly in May, so it will have very little effect on global albedo or the sea ice melt season.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #355 on: October 26, 2016, 09:02:29 PM »
Oh, I agree with your points, wasn't disagreeing with you just mentioning. :)
I think what you may be failing to remember is that only the surface area of the ice is effective to produce cooling, and so while the amount of ice on Greenland is far higher than the amount of Arctic sea ice, the effective cooling of the Greenland ice sheet is less than it is for the sea ice because the area that is in direct contact with air is much lower for Greenland than it is for the sea ice.
That is incorrect. As Greenland melts it becomes more porous and the gigantic fractures running through the ice sheet turn it into swiss cheese. In fact, air passing through/over Greenland encounters substantially more ice surface area that it does over the Arctic. The melt ponds that disappear as they drain through the sheet also create huge tunnels/chasms for air to funnel through which further enhances Greenland's cooling abilities.

Hahahaha. Nope. He's quite correct.

That's pretty funny though. Greenland dissipating heat from air because it's porous like a radiator. heh heh.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #356 on: October 26, 2016, 10:06:41 PM »
The swiss cheese analogy of Greenland's ice sheet is actually quite accurate, but I don't know that it could take on the accumulated heat energy the Earth has stored since about 1880. The rate of accumulation since 1990 has been about 2 x 1023 Joules per second for the oceans alone. This rate has increased over time, ironically with a snowball like effect. That's why all the ocean's are so warm now, but the heat has also gone toward melting land and sea ice, heating land itself, as well as air.

This chart shows how the heat is distributed.From https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229038139_Global_energy_accumulation_and_net_heat_emission

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #357 on: October 26, 2016, 10:45:12 PM »
good job TT thanks for sharing

Darvince

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #358 on: October 27, 2016, 12:37:34 AM »
Based on all I have read on this forum, I'm surprised at how high the fractions are for ground, air, and sea ice are. Especially when you consider the volumes of each.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #359 on: October 27, 2016, 01:28:48 AM »
That's the overall accumulation for the modern Industrial Era. I am sure at different intervals of time each absorbed energy at different rates. For at least the last few decades, the oceans have literally saved our hides by serving as a vast reservoir for energy. It would take 1024 Joules to melt all the ice in Greenland; the oceans absorb that amount every 5 seconds. The oceans are vast, but not infinite.

P.S. By the way, it would only take a fraction more(1020 Joules) to heat all that water from Greenland's melted ice up to a cozy 33 deg. C. after being melted...
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Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #360 on: October 27, 2016, 02:20:03 AM »
I remember at the end of July I felt relief because we still had sea ice in the arctic. I said to myself, maybe we get a strong refreeze and we do have at least a decade of sea ice. I can have a good year, postpone the stress. But then, this freezing season happens. ughh.
 
I for one hope that BBR is right and we get a respite from the heat.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #361 on: October 27, 2016, 04:34:49 AM »
I certainly find it interesting that sea ice takes up more of the heat than air.

It also brings it home how important it is if it also takes up to over a third of what the whole ocean does.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2016, 04:59:25 AM by abbottisgone »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #362 on: October 27, 2016, 05:17:47 AM »


Hahahaha. Nope. He's quite correct.

That's pretty funny though. Greenland dissipating heat from air because it's porous like a radiator. heh heh.

Can I play some type of advocate? (Well, "..can I?" being the ultimate self test hehe!)

I can't help but feel that the more highly organised structure that is The Greenland Ice Sheet, as compared to the Arctic Sea Ice, invites more destructive force.

Looking at the identified importance of surface area we could say that moulins   are flowing water and that means an almost infinite surface area is in effect being presented to the heat filled air : meaning I don't think the numbers are in on this!

ergo: bbr may have a point!


 - sure, my use of the word 'infinite' is most probably a faux pas in someones book but what else is considered argument worthy of proper consideration?
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #363 on: October 27, 2016, 06:10:13 AM »
I remember at the end of July I felt relief because we still had sea ice in the arctic. I said to myself, maybe we get a strong refreeze and we do have at least a decade of sea ice. I can have a good year, postpone the stress. But then, this freezing season happens. ughh.

After reaching an early minimum I was ready to relax and let the sea ice recover in peace but it does anything but that.  The season is looking increasingly anomalous as it progresses.  Both extent and area are in new territory.  The most ominous question is - what does it implicate for the next season?

budmantis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #364 on: October 27, 2016, 06:18:51 AM »
I for one hope that BBR is right and we get a respite from the heat.

Wili posted this article from Scientific American on the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread about a returning polar vortex this winter.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #365 on: October 27, 2016, 06:30:22 AM »
After reaching an early minimum I was ready to relax and let the sea ice recover in peace but it does anything but that.  The season is looking increasingly anomalous as it progresses.  Both extent and area are in new territory.  The most ominous question is - what does it implicate for the next season?
Artful Dodger seems to think the loss of multi-year ice means that can only lead to salty first year ice replacing it which tends to melt very easily.

 Throw a slow freeze up into the next year and it can't be good at all.

 The multi-year sea ice in the Arctic is what people are most concerned about right around the whole world: even in Australia.

 The more open ocean in the Arctic means the more cyclones doesn't it? I think this world is very happy for a La Nina!!
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #366 on: October 27, 2016, 06:38:07 AM »
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

"Swamped for no good reason"? The discussion is "on-topic" Oren, even if you don't agree with the argument.

Talking about an approaching ice age has no business on the thread which is about the 2016/2017 freezing season. This topic does not belong on this thread and I am now stupider for having read the comments.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #367 on: October 27, 2016, 06:54:13 AM »
I for one hope that BBR is right and we get a respite from the heat.

Wili posted this article from Scientific American on the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread about a returning polar vortex this winter.

Right now, every time any cold air builds up in the Arctic, it leaks out to lower latitudes and warmer air replaces it. I am not sure this will not continue all winter. It is a hard situation to reverse.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #368 on: October 27, 2016, 07:42:32 AM »
I for one hope that BBR is right and we get a respite from the heat.

Wili posted this article from Scientific American on the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread about a returning polar vortex this winter.

Right now, every time any cold air builds up in the Arctic, it leaks out to lower latitudes and warmer air replaces it. I am not sure this will not continue all winter. It is a hard situation to reverse.

It will continue until there's no more dynamics at higher latitudes, in other words till the arctic region is frozen solid, - which is getting delayed due to high dynamics  ??? as a result of low ice extent, area, volume and generally higher than average temps.
Check earth.nullschool.net air temps near the north pole - it's minus 3c! Some areas are probably still stuck in the melting season...

budmantis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #369 on: October 27, 2016, 07:44:05 AM »
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

"Swamped for no good reason"? The discussion is "on-topic" Oren, even if you don't agree with the argument.

Talking about an approaching ice age has no business on the thread which is about the 2016/2017 freezing season. This topic does not belong on this thread and I am now stupider for having read the comments.

Whether you agree with it or not, it did elicit some good discussion. In light of that, I find it hard to believe it made anyone "stupider". I think it was a fair and frank exchange. If the argument continued much longer, I would agree with Oren that it should be diverted to a dedicated thread, but I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #370 on: October 27, 2016, 09:23:34 AM »
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

"Swamped for no good reason"? The discussion is "on-topic" Oren, even if you don't agree with the argument.

Talking about an approaching ice age has no business on the thread which is about the 2016/2017 freezing season. This topic does not belong on this thread and I am now stupider for having read the comments.

Whether you agree with it or not, it did elicit some good discussion. In light of that, I find it hard to believe it made anyone "stupider". I think it was a fair and frank exchange. If the argument continued much longer, I would agree with Oren that it should be diverted to a dedicated thread, but I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

Ice age is quite possible, it's one of the very few stable climatic states of our planet if we look far enough into the earth's history. So is the hothouse state which preceded all? major ice ages in the past. Here's the problem, the rate of climate change we are experiencing right now is thousands of times higher than during the PETM. At this point, given how complex the system is and how much we are affecting it on so many levels, I'd say anything is possible. But between going Venus vs Ice Age the former looks more likely based on the current state of events.

slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #371 on: October 27, 2016, 09:56:20 AM »
Right now, every time any cold air builds up in the Arctic, it leaks out to lower latitudes and warmer air replaces it. I am not sure this will not continue all winter. It is a hard situation to reverse.

Is what you are referring to basically just a continuation of the extraordinary storminess of the Arctic this year relative to any other year in the satellite record?


Attached is the tropicaltidbits.com ECMWF 72h forecast, which is for 957 hPa at the edge of the ESS opposing 1043 hPa in front of Greenland - which would give an 86 hPa swing across the Arctic basin.

Concerning the other models, the GFS 78h prediction is only somewhat less aggressive: 1040 hPa - 966 hPa = 74 hPa swing; the most aggressive, CMC GEM at both 66h and 72h gives 87 hPa; JMA at 96h gives 72 hPa; while the least aggressive, NAVGEM at 90h gives 65 hPa.

So the general guidance from all the models is for very strong winds across the Arctic basin in the next few days.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #372 on: October 27, 2016, 01:50:54 PM »
But between going Venus vs Ice Age the former looks more likely based on the current state of events.

I agree. I think it is far more likely that AGW will continue unabated.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #373 on: October 27, 2016, 02:17:12 PM »
Production of Arctic SMOS sea ice thickness data continues again: http://icdc.cen.uni-hamburg.de/1/daten/cryosphere/l3c-smos-sit.html

The SMOS sea ice thickness method resolves thickness up to about 1.5 meter but uncertainties strongly increase for thicknesses above one meter.

Latest validation paper: http://www.seaice.de/Kaleschke_RSE_2016_final.pdf


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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #374 on: October 27, 2016, 04:16:09 PM »
- sure, my use of the word 'infinite' is most probably a faux pas in someones book but what else is considered argument worthy of proper consideration?
"More"?

As in, Q: How many concern trolls can dance on the head of a pin? A: More.

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #375 on: October 27, 2016, 04:54:09 PM »
I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

No one is complaining about the posting of crackpot theories; they're unhappy that those crackpot theories are being posted here, in this forum dedicated to--as the title clearly states--the 2016/2017 freezing season. "We're about to enter an ice age" nonsense doesn't belong here, period. There are other fora for such things. That's all...

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #376 on: October 27, 2016, 05:19:48 PM »
The gap between 2016 and 2007/2012 is slowly growing, SIE is now 70k below 2007 and 350k below 2012 for Oct 23rd.

Oct 24: 2016 is 107k below 2007 and 409k below 2012. (and 1.2 Mln below 2015)

Oct 25: 2016 is 164k below 2007 and 430k below 2012.
Oct 26: 2016 is now 247k below 2007 and 453k below 2012

budmantis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #377 on: October 27, 2016, 05:30:08 PM »
I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

No one is complaining about the posting of crackpot theories; they're unhappy that those crackpot theories are being posted here, in this forum dedicated to--as the title clearly states--the 2016/2017 freezing season. "We're about to enter an ice age" nonsense doesn't belong here, period. There are other fora for such things. That's all...

The last post by BBR on what you call his "crackpot theory" was reply #348. More space has been used to voice displeasure at his point, than the point itself. As to his point, I think it highly unlikely to happen, but I believe it is at least a possibility. BBR has made his point and has moved on, I suggest we do the same.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2016, 05:48:15 PM by budmantis »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #378 on: October 27, 2016, 05:59:29 PM »
Ice age is quite possible, it's one of the very few stable climatic states of our planet if we look far enough into the earth's history. So is the hothouse state which preceded all? major ice ages in the past. Here's the problem, the rate of climate change we are experiencing right now is thousands of times higher than during the PETM. At this point, given how complex the system is and how much we are affecting it on so many levels, I'd say anything is possible. But between going Venus vs Ice Age the former looks more likely based on the current state of events.
OK, I think we really *do* need to move this stuff to a different topic.  I have thoughts about this, but won't express them here. Let's stay on topic please - 2016/2017 freezing season.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #379 on: October 27, 2016, 06:36:01 PM »
Ok, I will get it started. Just notice how, over the last 10 days or so, ice has grown around and wrapped the New Siberian Islands and spanned all the way to shore.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #380 on: October 27, 2016, 07:28:40 PM »
Ok, I will get it started. Just notice how, over the last 10 days or so, ice has grown around and wrapped the New Siberian Islands and spanned all the way to shore.

Hardly a surprise. In fact, it's about time, given that it's a) the last week of October, and b) those islands are in the Arctic Ocean above 75N, where there are 20 hours of darkness every day this time of year. (The average daily temperature in October for Kotelny Island: −10.7 C [12.7F]).

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #381 on: October 27, 2016, 08:18:59 PM »
With the single day NSIDC extent, we're now lowest on record by over 400k.
The previous latest date to hit the 7 million mark was Oct 24th in 2007 - we still haven't hit 7 million km2 this year.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #382 on: October 28, 2016, 03:30:35 AM »
Right now, every time any cold air builds up in the Arctic, it leaks out to lower latitudes and warmer air replaces it. I am not sure this will not continue all winter. It is a hard situation to reverse.

Is what you are referring to basically just a continuation of the extraordinary storminess of the Arctic this year relative to any other year in the satellite record?


Attached is the tropicaltidbits.com ECMWF 72h forecast, which is for 957 hPa at the edge of the ESS opposing 1043 hPa in front of Greenland - which would give an 86 hPa swing across the Arctic basin.

Concerning the other models, the GFS 78h prediction is only somewhat less aggressive: 1040 hPa - 966 hPa = 74 hPa swing; the most aggressive, CMC GEM at both 66h and 72h gives 87 hPa; JMA at 96h gives 72 hPa; while the least aggressive, NAVGEM at 90h gives 65 hPa.

So the general guidance from all the models is for very strong winds across the Arctic basin in the next few days.

If this prediction proves correct and with a nearly ice free Beaufort, we are going to see some serious damage to the newly forming ice on the margins from waves.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #383 on: October 28, 2016, 05:10:53 AM »
I have never been much of a weather person, but just from listening to others, I surmise that what makes a storm is a gradient. The elements are basically trying to reach a balance again. Then things are calm until they get out of balance once more. It used to be that a powerful jet stream kept the cold and hot air separated for the most part. Now, warm air swaps out with cold air so easily in the Arctic, it's bound to keep things off kilter. I know the moisture plays a part, but I will let someone who understands weather a little better get into that. Bottom line, probably more Arctic storms to be expected and more often.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #384 on: October 28, 2016, 05:14:12 PM »
With the single day NSIDC extent, we're now lowest on record by over 400k.
The previous latest date to hit the 7 million mark was Oct 24th in 2007 - we still haven't hit 7 million km2 this year.

And we are still below 7mln km2 - 6,885 for Oct 27. We are below 2012 by 450k and starting from today 2007 will be of no useful reference. Also, we are one day behind lowest on record for Antaractic SIE.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #385 on: October 28, 2016, 06:41:18 PM »
Actually NSIDC just posted for 10-27 at 7.004 M km2. JAXA is not quite there yet.

And yes, Antarctica bears keeping a close eye on this year.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #386 on: October 28, 2016, 06:43:20 PM »
I'm surprised there is no sea ice maximum poll.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #387 on: October 28, 2016, 06:46:44 PM »
Actually NSIDC just posted for 10-27 at 7.004 M km2. JAXA is not quite there yet.

Link?

Attached is a screenshot from their interactive graph for Oct 27.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #388 on: October 28, 2016, 06:49:31 PM »
It may be a bit early yet to make any kind of educated guess at the maximum. Maybe in a couple months, just my opinion though.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #389 on: October 28, 2016, 06:55:04 PM »
Actually NSIDC just posted for 10-27 at 7.004 M km2. JAXA is not quite there yet.

Link?

Attached is a screenshot from their interactive graph for Oct 27.

Here, but don't ask me why their graph is different.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt_v2.csv
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #390 on: October 28, 2016, 06:56:24 PM »
The Charctic graph uses a trailing 5 day average. The ftp link is to the single day values.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #391 on: October 28, 2016, 07:53:35 PM »
Thank you very much. I knew it had have a logical explanation.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #392 on: October 28, 2016, 11:01:47 PM »
Not sure yet but the continuation of abnormal arctic temperatures (really now for non-summer months) has been all year post El Nino) may have a signature found in this study of paleoclimate models.  It indicates that past hothouse climates experienced possible shifts in cloud structures, leading to rapidly increased warming at the poles.

I don't think this is the answer to what we are seeing, but it is an indication of some of the uncertainties in the current body of work.

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130093
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pauldry600

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #393 on: October 29, 2016, 12:31:33 AM »
Max 13.5m about

Although having said that there are around 140 melt days left so need nearly 50k jump a day on average every day to get that. Seems simple as its upping by over 100k at times but there are many days especially in early 2017 during freeze season that it will fall or even stagnate for a few days so 13.5m may be unrealistic. Around March the ice tends to stay around a plateau for a month and then drop. At least Ive noticed this lately.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #394 on: October 29, 2016, 07:30:44 AM »
Those two hotspots at Svalbard might survive the winter also this year.
The first pic is SSTA, the second is SST.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #395 on: October 29, 2016, 09:57:51 AM »
Global sea temperatures so far this year (to end of Sept) have been remarkable and in the Arctic they have typically been close to 0.8 deg above the previous records. 

This may not seem a lot but consider the range for each  latitude:

Global      Increase above record: 0.27 deg.  Previous Range since 1948: 0.92
60-70 N   Increase above record: 0.77 deg.  Previous Range since 1948: 2.07
70-80 N   Increase above record: 0.92 deg.  Previous Range since 1948: 3.68
80-90 N   Increase above record: 0.78 deg.  Previous Range since 1948: 5.76

So when we try to understand what will happen to the Arctic Ice over the winter we have to accept that all the waters north of 60N are significantly hotter than in any  previous year. Therefore ice formation should be much lower than in previous years.

It's reasonable, even at this stage, to  suggest a record low maximum is highly possible. 
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #396 on: October 29, 2016, 02:30:09 PM »
I think from time to time it's well worth to have a look at global sea-ice extent as well :-)

It may be a good year to have a thread dedicated to keeping up with Global SIE. I would think the gap between this year and previous would have to be growing, and that is going to affect the global weather system.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #397 on: October 29, 2016, 07:35:02 PM »
Wow, just wow. I was looking at the tiny 14k growth on IJIS and I can't believe what's happening. I've been reading what everyone has been saying and it is hard to believe how slow the growth has been this year. There have been some decent articles lately describing the the dipole that is forming.

It's way too early to tell, but it certainly seems like there has been some paradigm shift.  I really agree with that was written above about how the cold air 'leaks' out of the arctic.  If the rest of the season continues this way, I fear what we will see during the melt season next year.  Additionally, large amplitudes in the jet stream driven by less temperature differentials is only going to make it easy for more heat to be injected into the arctic. But as described already, the 'warm' ocean temperatures are quite profound.

The ice must have been in weaker shape than I thought at the end of the melt season as it seems so susceptible to the arctic's current conditions.

And not to get off track with stupid anecdotal stories, but the weather has been scary where I live in Colorado. We broke two heat records this week when it hit almost 85 degrees. The mountains have literally no snow and we have had the same weather pattern for months on end. I only mention this, because this is yet another effect driven by diminishing ice levels.
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Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #398 on: October 29, 2016, 07:47:51 PM »
I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

No one is complaining about the posting of crackpot theories; they're unhappy that those crackpot theories are being posted here, in this forum dedicated to--as the title clearly states--the 2016/2017 freezing season. "We're about to enter an ice age" nonsense doesn't belong here, period. There are other fora for such things. That's all...

I have seen lots of posts from people proposing all kinds of theories. In fact, most theories until proven with substantial empirical data showing that models fit the observations and the predictions turn out to be correct, are in a way "crackpot". Maybe "crackpot" means a smaller consensus than "sound".
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #399 on: October 29, 2016, 07:48:31 PM »
Every action has an equal and opposite reaction... this is even more anomalous than the sea ice, also record setting all time i believe at this point





the consequence of this in terms of albedo must be very extreme... given how far S the blues are this year and the fact that we are literally two-three weeks ahead of recent years in terms of coverage means that a huge additional % of land is now reflecting much more sunlight back into space. the differential with previous years is now increasing each and every year and the earlier the differential begins blowing up the worse the albedo feedback will be. this is very scary