Hi abbotisgone!
I have to say the 'crackopalypse' events snook up on me and left me wondering what new misery was being visited on us but now it is becoming a lot clearer!
I believe we are looking at a basin evolving to melt out each summer. I know we all knew that but I kinda assumed it would be ever increasing temps that did the job........ not a reorganisation of the basin to allow current temps/weather patterns to allow for melt out over 'average' weather years!
Watching all ice types fall apart into small floes had me realise just what the 'crackopalypse years' meant to the basin.
I was starting to think that they were a positive thing in that they allowed drainage of melt ponds so allowed the ice to escape from any pre-conditioning by them ( but also by rendering the floes into ever smaller blocks so limiting extent of melt ponds?) but now I find that it is probably the very thing that allows the first sub- million pack even without an 07' type perfect melt storm?
The break up of contiguous ice means that any 'damping' effect is compromised allowing mixing of the ocean below even with full ice cover? Smaller floes travel faster so export potentials increase. Small floes melt out faster than large ones.
The whole evolution of a more fragmented pack glued together with FY late formed ice is now appearing to be the thing that finally killed year round ice in the basin. By the time this year's over more of the 'good ice' will be lost to the Atlantic to be replaced with more FY ice ready for next year.
