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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3500 on: January 31, 2018, 09:13:18 PM »
The GOP rats continue to jump from their sinking ship...

When I say that the GOP is sinking I mean that the Congressional GOP chairs know much of the confidential information related to the Russia investigation that will be made public prior to the midterm elections.  So while the GOP ship may not publically look like it is sinking now, but it will by the end of this coming summer.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3501 on: January 31, 2018, 09:32:44 PM »
The Russia investigation is almost guaranteed to impact the midterm elections if for no other reason because the Manafort-Gates trial is scheduled to proceed in September 2018:

Title: "Bad news for GOP: Mueller probe could collide with midterms"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/17/republicans-mueller-midterms-russia-probe-341592

Extract: "Campaign stink bombs loom as judge signals possible September start for Manafort-Gates trial.

As the Manafort-Gates trial approaches, Republicans concede they’ll likely suffer political damage as cable television shows images of the former campaign aides entering and leaving the courtroom every day. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders can expect to face daily questions about each development in the trial."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3502 on: February 01, 2018, 03:51:58 AM »
Think of 'involuntarily committed' as 'tough love':

Title: "The Psychiatrist Telling Congress Trump Could Be Involuntarily Committed"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/bandy-lee/550193/

Extract: "A Yale professor says she’s telling lawmakers that the president may actually be “dangerous.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Archimid

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3503 on: February 01, 2018, 01:24:07 PM »
The thing is that after people cross lines something must happen. If the line is crossed and nothing happens then the line has no meaning. Trump has been crossing lines with impunity for a year now. Lines mean nothing to him. The law means nothing to him or the republicans.
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Archimid

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3504 on: February 01, 2018, 01:50:55 PM »
Saw this excerpt at reddit, and wanted to share. A 1955 book fantastically on topic.
Quote
A passage from the book,

Milton Mayer’s, They Thought They Were Free, The Germans 1933-1945

"...Each act, each occasion, is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow. You don't want to act, or even talk, alone; you don't want to 'go out of your way to make trouble.' Why not?-Well, you are not in the habit of doing it. And it is not just fear, fear of standing alone, that restrains you; it is also genuine uncertainty. Uncertainty is a very important factor, and, instead of decreasing as time goes on, it grows. Outside, in the streets, in the general community, 'everyone' is happy. One hears no protest, and certainly sees none. You know, in France or Italy there would be slogans against the government painted on walls and fences; in Germany, outside the great cities, perhaps, there is not even this. In the university community, in your own community, you speak privately to your colleagues, some of whom certainly feel as you do; but what do they say? They say, 'It's not so bad' or 'You're seeing things' or 'You're an alarmist.'

And you are an alarmist. You are saying that this must lead to this, and you can't prove it. These are the beginnings, yes; but how do you know for sure when you don't know the end, and how do you know, or even surmise, the end? On the one hand, your enemies, the law, the regime, the Party, intimidate you. On the other, your colleagues pooh-pooh you as pessimistic or even neurotic. You are left with your close friends, who are, naturally, people who have always thought as you have....

But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That's the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have been sufficiently shocked-if, let us say, the gassing of the Jews in '43 had come immediately after the 'German Firm' stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in '33. But of course this isn't the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.

And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying 'Jewish swine,' collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose. The world you live in-your nation, your people-is not the world you were born in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God. The system itself could not have intended this in the beginning, but in order to sustain itself it was compelled to go all the way."
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3505 on: February 01, 2018, 07:45:44 PM »
Moron Don continues his march through the US democracy.  So where do we stand?

1)  Donnie continues to push the narrative that the FBI is corrupt and can't be trusted.  Therefore....Donnie is leaving himself an "out" in meeting with Mueller.  I don't expect that meeting to be held.  And this will likely force a push into the courts....subpoena being used....and Donnie exercising the 5th amendment.

2)  I further expect Donnie's push to get Rosenstein and Mueller fired.  When that will be...is anyone's guess.  But certainly he is playing his cards that way.  Perhaps that will be the time he pushes Sessions out as well.....and tries to get someone unethical like Tom Coton into the Attorney General position.  Tom would do anything that Trump asks.....and he has no ethics as well....so that would be a good fit.

3)  You can see from the actions of HUD Secretary Ben "I'm a crook" Carson......that the Trump administration has gone "FULL CORRUPT".  In other words.....grab whatever ill-gotten things you can while you're here.  But don't worry about the law.  It doesn't apply to Donnies administration.

It is the FBI and free press.....vs Donnie and his band of crooks.  Going to be a rough year.....

Find out who your local/state US Representative and Senators are......and PROD THE HELL OUT OF THEM. 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Rob Dekker

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3506 on: February 02, 2018, 06:37:51 AM »

President Trump’s State of the Union address had one false statement every 4.5 minutes :

https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitics/videos/1898967683468046/
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Let's not waste either.

Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3507 on: February 02, 2018, 03:36:55 PM »
Some things I am watching RE Traitor Donnie:

1)  Are we starting "a correction" in the US stock market (ie a 10% - 20% "normal correction") and if we do....how will that impact Traitor Donald at the polls?  Regarding the markets....he has had his "wind at his back" (even though world markets are up MORE than the US) until now....but markets don't always go up.  They eventually correct.

2)    Oil and gas prices.  They have also had a nice run over the last few months.  Will they also correct to the downside?  That could have negative implications for both Russia AND the Middle East.  Traitor Don is doing his best to help prop up the oil and gas markets.  In the SHORT TERM....that is negative for renewable energy.  BUT ONLY IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.  Because as you can see if you watched the video clip of Tony Seba......the continued push DOWN on the "cost curve" for renewable energy is UNRELENTING.  Tariffs will only cause the solar producers to PUSH DOWN HARDER ON THE COST CURVE......

3)  The Arctic, Antarctic, and Greenland.  With each passing year we move CLOSER to the next "event".  Will this year provide another "event" (like the Greenland melt of 2012).....or a significantly lower level of ice in the Antarctic and/or Arctic?

4) The continued PUSH DOWN ON THE COST CURVE FOR SOLAR.....and the continued move into EV's.  Those two things are very "NON DONNIE" items.  And any significant progress on those fronts will NOT HELP TRAITOR DON AT THE POLLS.  Remember....Traitor Don is going to "bring back coal" (and black and white tv as well  ;)).
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3508 on: February 02, 2018, 04:26:03 PM »
I heard there was a company taking applications to open ladder stores along the Mexican side of the US border. ;)   They will be stocked with 28 - 32 foot extension ladders.   ::) ::)

https://www.homedepot.com/b/Building-Materials-Ladders-Extension-Ladders/N-5yc1vZar0w
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Martin Gisser

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3509 on: February 02, 2018, 06:10:59 PM »

Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3510 on: February 02, 2018, 07:15:16 PM »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Susan Anderson

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3511 on: February 02, 2018, 10:18:01 PM »
Please note:

Fox and RT (Russia Today) are not allied or related. [I thought it was Russia Times, I'll have to look into that.]

Although Trump has upended the Republican attitude towards Russia, these organizations are not tied to each other in any way. (In fact, RT occasionally does good reporting, especially on the environment, which fits their narrative of the decline of the West.)

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/29/24-hour-putin-people-my-week-watching-kremlin-propaganda-channel-rt-russia-today

Martin Gisser

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3512 on: February 03, 2018, 06:59:05 AM »
So, I learned a new wörd: Dud. What have we missed in the noise around the Nunes memo dud?

Why the Victor Cha episode makes it seem like war is coming
https://www.vox.com/world/2018/1/31/16954880/trump-north-korea-south-korea-ambassador-victor-cha
Quote
A North Korea hawk who’s both deeply experienced and widely respected seems like a perfect pick for the Trump administration, so it’s telling that Cha’s nomination was apparently derailed because he was too dovish for the Trump team.

Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3513 on: February 03, 2018, 02:12:57 PM »
Susan:

You DO know that RT is Russian sponsored (and financed) television don't you?  Vladimir will be tickled that you enjoy his handiwork.  Russia Today is nothing more than a megaphone for little Vladi...... just as FOX is nothing more than a megaphone for Traitor Donnie.  Thus.....my reference to FOX (RT).

There are several "readers" who have quit RT because of the blatant bias against the US...and for Vladi.

If Sean ever gets kicked off of FOX (doubtful)..... I wouldn't be surprised to see his smiling face show up on RT.  He is just like Traitor Donnie.... it's only about his paycheck.


FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3514 on: February 03, 2018, 05:54:47 PM »
Trump has succeeded in making the GOP Putin's party:

Title: "CIA chief met with sanctioned Russian spies, officials confirm"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/01/politics/pompeo-russian-spies-meeting/index.html

Extract: "CIA Director Mike Pompeo did meet with the head of Russia's foreign intelligence agency, an official barred from entering the US under 2014 sanctions, as well as the head of Russia's internal security agency, according to a US official with direct knowledge of the meetings."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3515 on: February 03, 2018, 07:54:04 PM »
It looks like the stock market knows that Trump and the GOP are overheating the economy:

Title: "Why the job market threatens to turn too hot for comfort in 2018"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-market-threatens-turn-hot-comfort-2018-153923269.html

Extract: "The likelihood that the economy will overheat jumped when the Trump administration and Republican Congress recently passed legislation for deficit-financed tax cuts. Borrowing money from global investors to cut tax bills is pure fiscal stimulus, and will temporarily pump up growth. Even without tax cuts, unemployment was set to fall below 4%, but with them it will likely fall into the low threes."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3516 on: February 03, 2018, 08:13:25 PM »
Not only is the GOP hell bent on overheating the economy, but their stingness, resulting from their tax break, exposes the world to the risk of a global pandemic:

Title: "GOP Stinginess Could Lead to a Global Pandemic"

https://www.alternet.org/personal-health/gop-stinginess-could-lead-global-pandemic
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Neven

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3517 on: February 03, 2018, 09:05:48 PM »
Trump has succeeded in making the GOP Putin's party:

Title: "CIA chief met with sanctioned Russian spies, officials confirm"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/01/politics/pompeo-russian-spies-meeting/index.html

Extract: "CIA Director Mike Pompeo did meet with the head of Russia's foreign intelligence agency, an official barred from entering the US under 2014 sanctions, as well as the head of Russia's internal security agency, according to a US official with direct knowledge of the meetings."

Can we keep stuff related to Adolf Putin and the New Red Scare confined to the Russiagate thread?
The enemy is within
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gerontocrat

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3518 on: February 03, 2018, 09:30:51 PM »
Plato, I think, suggests that a democracy degenerates into the baying of the mob, facts and reason becoming irrelevant in the Government of the State. Such a situation is required for the emergence of the tyrant - the final stage of tyranny producing such terrible results that it inevitably leads to the beginning of the cycle again.

Perhaps the USA has reached, is reaching, the baying of the mob stage. Though my guess it would be Trump #2 or Trump#3 who will be the first Great Dictator, Beloved Leader, Fount of All Wisdom or whatever.

But there are some signs in the UK of a similar process emerging.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3519 on: February 03, 2018, 10:06:34 PM »
Something that I think is worth a read and inward digestion, and not just for USA citizens.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-03/what-happens-when-china-eclipses-the-u-s-in-asia
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3520 on: February 04, 2018, 05:46:09 PM »
What is going to happen in the bond market in coming months/years under Traitor Donnie?

https://shareblue.com/trump-forced-to-borrow-84-percent-more-this-year-in-massive-failure-to-curb-debt/

The economy of Kansas eventually tanked as they continued to push down tax rates, and the economy never perked up.  They were FORCED to raise rates to balance their budget.

What is going to happen to the US economy in coming years?  I wish I knew.... :o
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3521 on: February 04, 2018, 06:27:04 PM »
What is going to happen in the bond market in coming months/years under Traitor Donnie?

https://shareblue.com/trump-forced-to-borrow-84-percent-more-this-year-in-massive-failure-to-curb-debt/

The economy of Kansas eventually tanked as they continued to push down tax rates, and the economy never perked up.  They were FORCED to raise rates to balance their budget.

What is going to happen to the US economy in coming years?  I wish I knew.... :o

Your point is that as Bill Clinton noted: "It's the economy stupid"; and right now the US shortage of labor is driving up inflation and driving down the stock market; while Trump's economic policies are driving down the dollar as compared to both the euro and the British pound.  As the FED raises interest rates, we can expect the middleclass' 401K values to drop before the midterm elections and thus we have reason to hope for a blue wave in November.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3522 on: February 04, 2018, 06:41:11 PM »
The linked article discusses how concerned we should be about Trump's inflationary policies (including limiting labor by limiting immigrants and fighting DACA as well as by the GOP tax cuts) on both the stock market and the economy:

Title: "How Worried Should You Be? Traders Confront Inflation's Reality"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-03/how-worried-should-you-be-traders-confront-inflation-s-reality

Extract: "For almost a decade, investors have waited patiently for any hint of inflation in the U.S. economy, a sign the recovery can sustain itself without emergency stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Now they’re getting it, and many are shocked at the reaction.

It landed last week with the worst stock market plunge since January 2016. A stronger-than-expected employment report with signs of strengthening wage growth sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 666 points on Friday, bringing its five-day loss to almost 1,100 points. Share volatility surged.

Accounts of how concerned investors should be ran the gamut, from confidence traders will rush in and buy the dip, to warnings this time is different -- that selloffs that begin in the bond market have a habit of snowballing.

“It is now signaling, potentially, the end of this eight-year bull rally,” said Rich Weiss, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager of multi-asset strategies at American Century Investments. The firm manages $179 billion. “The Fed is going to have to move the interest rates, the bond market is recognizing that this incremental economic growth will spur on inflation from various sources.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3523 on: February 04, 2018, 06:49:08 PM »
With stocks and commercial real estate prices so high, it is very clear that the new FED chairman Jerome Powell will be raising interest rates repeatedly between now and the midterm elections; which may well cost the GOP some votes:

Title: "Yellen Says Prices `High' for Stocks, Commercial Real Estate"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-04/yellen-calls-prices-high-for-stocks-commercial-real-estate

Extract: "Outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said U.S. stocks and commercial real estate prices are elevated but stopped short of saying those markets are in a bubble.

“Price-earnings ratios are near the high end of their historical ranges.”

Commercial real estate prices are now “quite high relative to rents,” Yellen said. “Now, is that a bubble or is it too high? And there it’s very hard to tell. But it is a source of some concern that asset valuations are so high.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3524 on: February 05, 2018, 03:00:12 AM »
What a soulless presidency.

“In another sign of the darkness that's descended over our White House, there's not been a single State dinner in the 1st year (1st time in a century).  And the days when music & other arts performances were part of WH life: gone. Of course, which artists would want to do it?”

https://twitter.com/stevenbeschloss/status/960009807632592896

   
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3525 on: February 05, 2018, 03:26:18 AM »
Hopefully, the Dems will keep up the hard work:

Title: "Dems dominate GOP in cash race for key seats"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dems-dominate-gop-in-cash-race-for-key-seats/ar-BBIHzNU?li=AA5a8k&ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "Democratic House campaigns made significant fundraising gains in the final months of 2017, putting the party in a strong position to fight for the House majority in the midterms.

Dozens of House Democratic challengers outraised their Republican incumbents in the last three months of the year, while only a small handful of Republican challengers outraised the Democratic incumbents they hope to face."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wili

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3526 on: February 05, 2018, 04:04:22 AM »
Wow, that' not what I've been hearing, but a happy development is true.

But is that before the hundreds of millions of Koch $$$ kicks in?  :-\
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3527 on: February 05, 2018, 01:31:21 PM »
Wow, that' not what I've been hearing, but a happy development is true.

But is that before the hundreds of millions of Koch $$$ kicks in?  :-\
And what I read is that most of the republican big bucks will go into superpacs rather than to the GOP or candidates funds. Thankyou SupremeCourt for "Citizens United".
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3528 on: February 05, 2018, 07:31:38 PM »
The GOP will have a tough time resisting the blue wave without gerrymandering:

Title: "Supreme Court denies stay in Pa. gerrymandering case: reports"

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/372352-supreme-court-denies-stay-in-pa-gerrymandering-case-reports

Extract: "The Supreme Court has denied a stay in a case requiring Pennsylvania to redraw its congressional map before the 2018 midterms, according to multiple reports.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled in January that the state’s congressional map was unconstitutional because it was drawn in a way that unfairly favored Republicans."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3529 on: February 05, 2018, 08:02:11 PM »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3530 on: February 05, 2018, 09:09:18 PM »
Here's a fairly new video clip of a guy named Tony Seba.  Sebastian posted a video of his a couple weeks ago over on the "cars, cars, cars" string.  That was from July of 2017.  This one (link at the bottom) is from a couple weeks ago.

I'm posting this one on this string....to show just HOW OUT OF TOUCH Traitor Donnie and his administration is.  And I believe it will affect his presidency.....and eventual removal from office.

Donnies administration has had the "wind at his back" regarding the stock market....but now he is going to have to deal with a "market correction."  Nobody knows how BIG it will be. Corrections can be 10%....or if they are particularly nasty, they can be 40% (EVEN WITHOUT A RECESSION).

But Traitor Donnie is now going to have to face:

1)  Stock market correction
2)  The next large leg down in the value of fossil fuel companies
3) The continued march of global warming (record low ice levels, record high temps, etc)

Things are "piling up" on Traitor Donnie.  And the fact that he lied about (a) FBI secret society and (b) lied about the FISA process of Carter Paige also doesn't help his cause.

I expect Donnie to continue to throw up long "3 point shots.....because he is now working his way deeper into the quick sand of his lies.  And he has a supposed date with Mueller in a couple of weeks.....which I think there is NO WAY that he can attend.



   
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 02:27:31 AM by Buddy »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3531 on: February 05, 2018, 10:31:18 PM »
Wall St. is waking-up to the realities of Trump's poor economic policies:

Title: "Wall St. plunges as stocks selloff continues"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-st-plunges-as-stocks-selloff-continues-idUSKBN1FP1OR

Edit, see also:

Title: "‘The president clearly set himself up’: Trump’s stock market miscalculation"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/trump-stock-market-down-324880

&

Title: "Dow Plunges 1,175, The Biggest Point Drop In History "

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/05/583325123/stocks-extend-losses-with-dow-dropping-more-than-300-points-at-the-open
« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 10:36:27 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3532 on: February 05, 2018, 10:41:34 PM »
A 10% to 20% drop in the equity markets by the midterm elections could make a big contribution to a blue wave:

Title: "Why Blackstone Billionaire Tony James Expects Stocks to Drop 20% This Year"

http://fortune.com/2018/02/05/blackstone-tony-james-stock-drop/?xid=gn_editorspicks&google_editors_picks=true

Extract: "Equity markets could fall as much as 20 percent this year, Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said.

“Every historic norm says that stocks are very, very fully valued,” James said Monday in an interview on CNBC, adding that the market decline could be 10 percent to 20 percent."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3533 on: February 06, 2018, 02:20:11 AM »
The Republicans appear to have warmed to their leader with only 11% disappointed after his first year in office.
Those who have seen him performing "as expected" (43%) were outnumbered by those Republicans who thought he did "better" than expected over the first year of his presidency.
Infographic: Has Trump Lived up to Expectations? | Statista
The Democrats have a much different view of Trump, but they didn't vote for him in the first place.


Has anyone noticed the echo effect here?
Terry

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3534 on: February 06, 2018, 02:41:11 PM »
A few weeks ago I said to watch the Chinese market for any signs of slowing down.  China has a LOT of debt....and at some point it is going to come home to roost.

Nobody knows WHEN that will happen.  But those kinds of things often happen in times of "worldwide financial tumult".  It is just something to keep an eye on.  Also....if that does happen, it will spike interest rates in China.

Traitor Don has his plate full of issues.  The rocket scientists on his economic team (sarcasm intended) are NOT exactly the brightest bulbs in the package.  Stephen Moore.....Arthur Laffer (of Laffer curve fame), Larry Kudlow (who totally blew calls on the last two recessions).

Those are the folks that talked Traitor Donnie into PRIMING THE ECONOMIC PUMPS VIA TAX CUT WHEN UNEMPLOYMENT WAS A 4.3%.  That is like throwing gasoline on a burning fire.  And not only did they do it during a time of low unemployment.....they will go $1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS IN DEBT TO DO SO.

The other thing to think about is that the world is going through a period of SIGNIFICANT business model change, as well as technological change/disruption:

1)  Robotics
2)  Energy
3)  Transportation

....just to name 3 "big ones".  Fortunately.....we have someone as bright and well read as Traitor Don to smooth the waters during this time of transition.   :o :o :o

Someone who is trying to "bring back coal"......stop renewable power.....and maybe bring back black and white tv.

What could possibly go wrong....??


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-now-asian-shares-tumble-nikkei-drops-7-050245954.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3535 on: February 06, 2018, 03:29:16 PM »
Trump may get some stick over what's happening in the stock markets worldwide, as may the GOP. Perhaps they haven't done such a superduper job on managing the economy. Buddy's bet on the Exxon share price is looking quite safe.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/feb/06/stock-market-turmoil-europe-ftse100-heavy-losses-asia-us-dow-jones-live-updates
Quote
Veteran City analyst George Magnus has a deeply worrying take. He thinks markets are wobbling because the US government’s budget deficit is likely to spike over the next couple of years.

That’s because the new Tax Cut and Jobs Act will force Washington to borrow much more to balance its books -- at a time when the economy should be strong (so borrowing should be low).

Magnus writes:

Trillion dollar deficits are just over the horizon, which will cause US government debt as a share of GDP to rise in the next several years to over 100 per cent. While debt levels alone cannot predict what will happen to bond yields, the markets fear that significant unfunded government borrowing—especially when the economy is doing well—will cause the Federal Reserve to carry on raising interest rates, in turn pushing bond yields higher.

On current trends, this cyclical shift will eventually, maybe in 2019, puncture the stock market, corporate profits, and most likely the economy.

ps: BITCOIN

Bitcoin price falls below $6,000 as banker signals crackdown

BIS head says cryptocurrency is a ‘Ponzi scheme’ that poses a threat to financial stability

Quote
The price of bitcoin fell below $6,000 (£4,300) for the first time this year as a leading central banker said it posed a threat to financial stability and signalled a global clampdown on the cryptocurrency.

The new head of the Bank for International Settlements (The BIS), Agustín Carstens, said bitcoin had become a combination of “a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster” that threatened to undermine public trust in central banks.

When the BIS speaks - the world's banks listen.
Reality is a bummer.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 03:36:30 PM by gerontocrat »
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3536 on: February 06, 2018, 04:01:57 PM »
While the Democrats face an uphill battle in the midterm elections to overcome such issues as: Super-PAC dark money, GOP think tanks, gerrymandering, voter suppression, incumbency and low unemployment; nevertheless, they are likely to gain control of the House due to the grassroots resistance movement against Trump:

Title: "All Signs Point to Big Democratic Wins in 2018"

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-midterm-elections-preview/

Extract: "History, demographics and the national mood are pointing to one conclusion about the 2018 congressional races: Democrats are well-positioned to bring one-party government in Washington under Donald Trump’s presidency to a screeching halt.

For an example of the uphill battle that the Democrats face see:

Title: "Sound the alarm: National GOP breaks glass in Pennsylvania race"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/pennsylvania-republicans-special-election-389964

Extract: "The national party has deployed its full arsenal in a March 13 special House election. A loss would be a huge blow to its hopes in the midterms.

Many Republicans are convinced that the district's pro-Trump tilt will be enough to put Saccone over the top. But others are concerned that Lamb’s stylistic talents as a candidate make him a serious threat.

Bliss immediately mobilized a field plan after Lamb became the Democratic nominee. He asked the group’s national data director, Ryan Terrill, to move to Pennsylvania full time beginning in January and said he wanted to knock on 250,000 doors by the time of the election — frigid weather or not."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3537 on: February 06, 2018, 04:29:58 PM »
The dropping stock market is well aware of Trump's disastrous foreign trade record, and that his tax plan will force the government to borrow overseas; which is essentially the same thing as adding to our foreign trade imbalance.  The chickens are coming home to roost which is making it clear just how incompetent Trump really is:

Title: "Trade deficit hits highest level since 2008"

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/372497-trade-deficit-hits-highest-level-since-2008

Extract: "The U.S. trade deficit surged to its highest level since 2008 during President Trump’s first year in office despite his vow to lower the gap and crack down on unfair competition."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3538 on: February 06, 2018, 04:57:34 PM »
Team Trump appears to be out of touch with the GOP base on the issue of legal marijuana, and the democrats hope to leverage this issue to reinforce a blue wave in the midterm elections:

Title: "These Red-State Democrats Think Legal Marijuana Can Help Them Win"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/06/legal-marijuana-red-state-democrats-216941

Extract: "With sky-high approval rates, pot is an issue challengers say will cure the Democratic malaise in Trump country.

“I think anytime you have an issue with such a high degree of bipartisan support in 2018, you have to pay attention to it,” Canon told POLITICO Magazine, regarding marijuana. “And it's appealing because it touches on so many other things: creates a new industry with jobs, good for agriculture, alleviates pressures placed one the criminal justice system, reduces overdose deaths, is a natural pain reliever, can raise massive tax revenue, et cetera.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3539 on: February 06, 2018, 10:25:20 PM »
It won't happen because of all the money that the DNC receives from their patriotic supporters who are involved with Big Pharmacy, Healthcare, and of course the Private Prison Industry.


As long as the Democrats suck so deeply on these poisoned teets, they can't be seen advocating for sensible, popular programs.


Terry
It's a pipe dream.

AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3540 on: February 07, 2018, 12:02:05 AM »
It won't happen because of all the money that the DNC receives from their patriotic supporters who are involved with Big Pharmacy, Healthcare, and of course the Private Prison Industry.


As long as the Democrats suck so deeply on these poisoned teets, they can't be seen advocating for sensible, popular programs.


Terry
It's a pipe dream.

The DNC has little say about how congressional candidates run their midterm campaigns, so don't be surprised if a few democratic candidates prove your opinion to be delusional.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3541 on: February 07, 2018, 07:51:21 PM »
Georgia city riddled with prejudice denies first ever African-American mayor keys to City Hall

Maybe Traitor Donnie will get the "keys to the city" of Camilla, GA instead of the black mayor that the city council just voted TO DENY GIVING HIM THE KEYS.

Excuse me....what century are we in?

http://bettergeorgia.org/2018/02/07/georgia-city-riddled-with-prejudice-denies-first-ever-african-american-mayor-keys-to-city-hall/

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Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3542 on: February 08, 2018, 01:26:25 PM »
A "bad drink" is now being mixed by the idiots in Traitor Donnie's administration:

1)  One of the largest increases in military spending.....the largest during a "peace time" (relative term...no MAJOR war).

2)  Likely weakness in the dollar....

3)  Increase in interest rates

THAT....is a bad combination for paying off debt....AND THE RISING INTEREST ON THAT DEBT.

Mr. Market will NOT TAKE THIS FOR MUCH LONGER.  It will sniff it out at some point.







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Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3543 on: February 08, 2018, 02:05:40 PM »
So....another one "bites the dust" in Traitor Donnie's administration.  Rob Porter bites the dust...after reports came out that he abused both of his wives from his first and second marriages.

And yesterday the Chief of Staff.....lying General Kelly....came out to say this about Rob Porter:

"Rob Porter is a man of true integrity and honor and I can't say enough good things about him. He is a friend, a confidante and a trusted professional. I am proud to serve alongside him," Kelly said in a statement sent out earlier Wednesday.

Yes....that is quite a statement from John Kelly who had no problem TOTALLY LYING ABOUT Florida representative Wilson.

And here is an article about John Kelly....describing how "the luster is off" of Kelly.  He is nothing more than just ONE MORE LAKEY WILLING TO LIE FOR TRAITOR DON.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/rep-frederica-wilson-calls-chief-staff-john-kelly-liar-article-1.3576513

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/john-kelly-rob-porter/552704/

https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/20/politics/frederica-wilson-donald-trump-gold-star-call-cnntv/index.html

 


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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3544 on: February 08, 2018, 06:38:46 PM »
While it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future, but it certainly looks like resistance to Trump could lead to a 'blue tsunami' in the midterm elections.  If so both Trump and the GOP will pay a heavy price:

Title: "Why 1 Missouri race has Republicans worried about a 'blue tsunami'"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/07/politics/missouri-special-election-analysis/index.html

Extract: " In such a small universe of voters, turnout differences between the two party bases are hugely impactful. The larger the electorate, the harder it is for a small group of very dedicated supporters to swing a result.

Those caveats could explain how Democrats won one or two or even four Republican-held state legislative seats. It doesn't explain how they have won 35 -- in a little over a year, all over the country.

What explains those sort of across the board gains? A building Democratic wave built on resistance to Trump."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Buddy

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3545 on: February 08, 2018, 07:33:50 PM »
Remember....Traitor Don LOVED to take credit for the stock market.  In fact....here are some of his words from Traitor Don himself......

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/02/05/trump-stock-market-credit/308627002/

I have also attached a graphic of the Dow Jones Industrials.....with some POSSIBLE "pull back levels" (levels to which the market COULD pull back to):  NOTE....none of those are a "prediction"....just some of the POSSIBILITIES.

Also note.....if you look back at history....you will find some pretty STEEP DROPS (30 - 40%) during TIMES OF ECONOMIC EXPANSION.   1987 is just one such drop and it dropped about 40%.

"Geeky technical guys" also look at "Fibonacci levels" (those Italians  ;)).  Fibonacci is an Italian mathematician from hundreds of years ago that was "an observer of things".  And one of the things he observed a lot of was NATURE....and he found that things "moved in waves and retracements).  Well...long story short.....market technicians look CLOSELY at Fibonacci levels.  Rounded...some of them are 24%, 38%, 50%, and 62%.

1)  I wonder what voters would think if we had a 38% retracement BACK TO THE LEVEL WHEN TRAITOR DON WON THE ELECTION?

2)  How much credit would Donnie take for a market that was FLAT for almost two years?

3)  I can hear him now: OBAMA !!!!

Now....in all seriousness.....remember, we are still at the beginning of a "work off" of not only fossil fuel stock values.....but ALSO the value of all the "hard assets" like drilling rigs, refineries, pipelines, pipeline equipment, etc.  ALL OF THOSE ARE GOING TO TAKE A BEATING IN FUTURE YEARS.

Do you think Donnie is going to be glad that his "team" is stacked with crooked fossil fuel folks?  ;)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3546 on: February 08, 2018, 07:58:50 PM »
If you don't think that Trump is a threat, maybe Noam Chomsky can change your mind:

Title: "Noam Chomsky: We're on the Brink of Global Catastrophe"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/noam-chomsky-were-brink-global-catastrophe

Extract: "Donald Trump poses a threat to human civilization unseen in decades."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3547 on: February 08, 2018, 08:15:21 PM »
If you don't think that Trump is a threat, maybe Noam Chomsky can change your mind:

Title: "Noam Chomsky: We're on the Brink of Global Catastrophe"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/noam-chomsky-were-brink-global-catastrophe

Extract: "Donald Trump poses a threat to human civilization unseen in decades."
Nice to hear Noam being quoted.
I suppose he's still convinced that the Russian Collusion narrative is B.S.


Terry

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3548 on: February 08, 2018, 08:59:07 PM »
'Will an impulsive and aggressive Trump get us all killed by launching a nuclear war?"

Title: "Donald Trump Wants to Make It Easier to Start a Nuclear War.  This Should Petrify Us."

https://theintercept.com/2018/02/08/donald-trump-nuclear-war/

Extract: "Last Friday, while cable news channels rolled on the Nunes memo, the Pentagon published the latest Nuclear Posture Review, or NPR, which includes two pretty alarming new components.

First, while Barack Obama’s 2010 NPR for the first time ruled out a nuclear attack against non-nuclear weapon states that are in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, Trump’s NPR goes in the opposite direction and suggests that the U.S. could employ nuclear weapons in “extreme circumstances” to defend the “vital interests” of the United States and its allies.

Second, the new NPR calls for the development of a new generation of so-called low-yield nuclear weapons. These smaller nukes, the document suggests, would be tactical, not strategic; deployed to the battlefield, rather than dropped on a city. The problem with this argument is that the atomic bombs used against Hiroshima (200,000 dead) and Nagasaki (70,000 dead) could also be considered low-yield nuclear weapons, in terms of their explosive capacity.

To quote Bruce Blair, a former nuclear missile launch officer and research scholar at the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University: “We all need to confront the fact that [the U.S. political system] gives one person the God-like power to end the world.”

The questions, therefore, that matter far more than any other in 2018: Does the narcissist-in-chief plan on using this “God-like power?” Will an impulsive and aggressive Trump get us all killed by launching a nuclear war? Everything else is noise."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wili

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Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Reply #3549 on: February 08, 2018, 09:02:54 PM »
"Russian Collusion narrative is B.S."

Terry, I don't recall him saying anything like that exactly. Only that given the number of times America has inserted itself into other countries democratic processes, the reaction of shock and dismay is a bit ironic when another country (Russia) is suspected of trying to influence the US election.

But I'd be happy to be corrected if I am remembering his position incorrectly. Do you have a link to support your claim?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."