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Author Topic: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?  (Read 2278 times)

Gray-Wolf

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Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« on: October 11, 2016, 01:43:38 PM »
I'm sure we've all mused as to why Sea ice area/extent, around the winter Antarctic, was apparently increasing since the 80's and many of us will have been satisfied with the compilation of mechanisms our Experts point to as having impact on the increases but have some of these 'forcings' now ended/reversed?

I have been wondering, over the past 3 years, as to whether or not we would begin to see a collapse in extent as both the Ozone hole showed signs of self repair and we saw the flip of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation/Flip positive of the PDO. This year's early max ( was this itself breakup/float off at seasons end?) drops the max extent back into the pack of previous years max extents so ought we to expect this trend to continue?

I suspect we all knew that there would be a 'maximum' extent that we could see under the current forcings and I feel this occurred back in 2012 ( or so) as the expansion of sea ice met with Southern Ocean workings limiting such growth. If some of these forcings are now reversed/falling away we might need to prepare ourselves for a rapid collapse back to 1970's ice levels come maximum?

The only 'upside' will be the fun we can have at the Denier's expense as they struggle to explain why this is happening after years of it being their 'Squirrel' of choice? :)

KOYAANISQATSI

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oren

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2016, 12:24:21 AM »
I think sea ice down there is highly susceptible to El Nino, and once the ENSO flips it might not be the same.
If I understand correctly, Hansen expects more sea ice over time due to stratification of increased meltwater caused by ocean melting of ice shelves and marine glaciers.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2016, 10:35:31 AM »
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0440.1

Showing the IPO's (interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) influence over Sea ice ( one of the reasons given for the increases since 79'?)

The IPO appeared to 'go out with a bang' with the final phase of the negative being held responsible for 'burying the heat' in the upper ocean over the alleged 'pause' in global temp rises? The Atlantic/Pacific basins were so out of balance that exceptional trades kept the surface of the Tropical Pacific cooler than it would have been under less extreme conditions.

It was also held up as responsible for the slowing in the PIG retreat so with it now in the positive phase should we also expect PIG to speed up again?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2016, 05:15:01 PM »
So where do folk stand on this?

Are we to expect a long period of Pacific forcings that limit ice extent around Antarctica or is it just a flash in the pan?

I think it would be right to expect any Ozone hole impacts to be on the wane as the hole heals and that background AGW warming will bring bigger and bigger impacts so it is only the Pacific impacts that are our 'wild card' here?
KOYAANISQATSI

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Buddy

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2016, 05:55:54 PM »
Are we to expect a long period of Pacific forcings that limit ice extent around Antarctica or is it just a flash in the pan?

I'm a big believer in the KISS method:  Keep It Simple Stupid (OK...I may be the stupid one ;))

We have one big swimming pool called the ocean.  It is the primary collector of heat...and it is warming.  I think both ice sheets have seen their MAX sea ice...and both are "heading down".  Too many positive feedback effects....  The ice decreases...the ocean absorbs more heat....which causes more ice to melt....which causes more absorption....which causes more heat...etc..etc..  And that doesn't even touch all the other feedback mechanisms now in play.  Momentum is too strong....  Way too many feedback effects and WAY too much momentum.  Like trying to stop a bungee jump half way down.

The start to the Antarctic melt season was EARLY AND EMPHATIC.  Likely the El Nino gave it a significant push.  But I think the Antarctic is on a zig zag path south...just like the Arctic has been since 1980.  And this will likely speed up the sea level rise in coming years and decades.

 

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magnamentis

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2016, 09:52:44 PM »
Are we to expect a long period of Pacific forcings that limit ice extent around Antarctica or is it just a flash in the pan?

I'm a big believer in the KISS method:  Keep It Simple Stupid (OK...I may be the stupid one ;))

We have one big swimming pool called the ocean.  It is the primary collector of heat...and it is warming.  I think both ice sheets have seen their MAX sea ice...and both are "heading down".  Too many positive feedback effects....  The ice decreases...the ocean absorbs more heat....which causes more ice to melt....which causes more absorption....which causes more heat...etc..etc..  And that doesn't even touch all the other feedback mechanisms now in play.  Momentum is too strong....  Way too many feedback effects and WAY too much momentum.  Like trying to stop a bungee jump half way down.

The start to the Antarctic melt season was EARLY AND EMPHATIC.  Likely the El Nino gave it a significant push.  But I think the Antarctic is on a zig zag path south...just like the Arctic has been since 1980.  And this will likely speed up the sea level rise in coming years and decades.

spot on IMO, well brought to the point without getting lost in too many details that open the doors to endless discussions and disagreement in terms etc. this is what's happening in the first place and most of the rest of not all the details are important but secondary to to the main process, warming oceans, warmer air and hence in the long rund less ice on the planet with the basic feedback you described.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2016, 10:29:31 PM »
I fully agree that a warming world means less ice but I'm more focused on the damage Denial has done to spreading the word of what changes we are creating whilst Antarctic Sea ice expanded?

Eventually the AGW signal will drown out both our terrestrial forcings and solar variability but until that point we do not need 'squirrels' for the Wattsy's of this world to point at!

As such a flip to Naturals augmenting the AGW signal, whilst the Ozone hole impacts are abating ,would be welcomed?

I am of the belief that PDO/IPO has now changed sign and so we should be expecting a relaxation back to the sea ice levels we were seeing the last time the Pacific was augmenting AGW and the Ozone hole was not yet formed?

I think , counter intuitively, that the two years prior to this did see a start in this process but the 15% and more trigger point for a grid square being included as 'ice covered' hid an early break up of the pack at maximum and the 'float off' of fragmented/storm fractured ice actually increased the extent before it floated out of the 15% or more trigger point?

Had we now 3 , back to back, years of early ice retreat we'd be better convinced that the naturals had now flipped.
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Buddy

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2016, 05:08:48 PM »
I fully agree that a warming world means less ice but I'm more focused on the damage Denial has done to spreading the word of what changes we are creating whilst Antarctic Sea ice expanded?

Eventually the AGW signal will drown out both our terrestrial forcings and solar variability but until that point we do not need 'squirrels' for the Wattsy's of this world to point at!

Three things:

1)  Yes...."deniers and liars" have certainly done damage by spreading their lies.  Many of them are PAID TO DO SO.  That is their job (right Willie Soon.....Joe Bastardi....etc).  And yes the "growth" of the Antarctic sea ice up thorugh 2014 likely was an innocent contributor to that.

2)  But they are NOW being overtaken by physics.  And I expect the physics to continue to accelerate in months and years ahead.  I think this year is already producing more of that....just as the Greenland ice melt of 2012 and other events of the last 5 years have produced....the melt of the Antarctic sea ice is becoming news.  And at 5 standard deviations below average....I would hope so.  We haven't seen "anything yet".  The crazy stuff is still ahead of us....and it will get far crazier and much faster.

3)  You are BEGINNING to see the press become more assertive in calling out some of the lies about global warming.  I expect to see a LOT more of that THIS YEAR as the physics continue to play out. 

This winter and summer will be ESPECIALLY interesting given the levels of BOTH polar sea ice levels.
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magnamentis

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2016, 11:14:41 PM »
I fully agree that a warming world means less ice but I'm more focused on the damage Denial has done to spreading the word of what changes we are creating whilst Antarctic Sea ice expanded?

Eventually the AGW signal will drown out both our terrestrial forcings and solar variability but until that point we do not need 'squirrels' for the Wattsy's of this world to point at!

Three things:

1)  Yes...."deniers and liars" have certainly done damage by spreading their lies.  Many of them are PAID TO DO SO.  That is their job (right Willie Soon.....Joe Bastardi....etc).  And yes the "growth" of the Antarctic sea ice up thorugh 2014 likely was an innocent contributor to that.

2)  But they are NOW being overtaken by physics.  And I expect the physics to continue to accelerate in months and years ahead.  I think this year is already producing more of that....just as the Greenland ice melt of 2012 and other events of the last 5 years have produced....the melt of the Antarctic sea ice is becoming news.  And at 5 standard deviations below average....I would hope so.  We haven't seen "anything yet".  The crazy stuff is still ahead of us....and it will get far crazier and much faster.

3)  You are BEGINNING to see the press become more assertive in calling out some of the lies about global warming.  I expect to see a LOT more of that THIS YEAR as the physics continue to play out. 

This winter and summer will be ESPECIALLY interesting given the levels of BOTH polar sea ice levels.

well said once again and people who still believe that their are ways against the laws of physics are the outbound of stupidity or ego-maniac parasites IMO.

cheers happy holidays
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2017, 03:13:30 PM »
Just bumping this thread as we get closer to ice max down there. We have been seeing low extent for the whole of the season so far and so it looks like another year highlighting 'a change' in the Sea ice behaviour we had become used to seeing?

Of course this is also allowing record low global sea ice extent/area to also occur.
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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gerontocrat

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2017, 12:54:07 PM »
Antarctic Sea Ice extent has been lowest, 2nd lowest or 3rd lowest for 250 days. Currently 2nd lowest (from NSIDC Charctic). Herewith a small amount of data culled from JAXA.
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magnamentis

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Re: Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2017, 04:29:33 PM »
Just bumping this thread as we get closer to ice max down there. We have been seeing low extent for the whole of the season so far and so it looks like another year highlighting 'a change' in the Sea ice behaviour we had become used to seeing?

Of course this is also allowing record low global sea ice extent/area to also occur.

i think we safely can add "volume" to that group too ;)
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