Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica  (Read 123204 times)

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #650 on: July 06, 2017, 03:25:17 PM »
Antarctic Sea Ice Extent about to slip from lowest to 2nd lowest behind 1986.
(http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/).

Still an impressive reduction over the last 3 years.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Darvince

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 197
    • View Profile
    • NSIDC Daily
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #651 on: July 09, 2017, 11:18:22 AM »
I have often wondered throughout this freezing season whether we have seen a switch back to the low ice of the 70s and 80s, but all the comments about how Antarctic sea ice is so intensely variable have kept me from stating it outright.

However, we are now in July, less than a month away from when Antarctic ice begins its wobble about the maximum, and it's still lowest on record on JAXA and seems like it's going to stay that way unless we get a 300k km² growth spurt over the next two days.

Compared to 1986 the winds seem like they've been much stronger this year, as the sea ice shape looks more like the September shape of the 80s rather than its July shape.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0051_gsfc_nasateam_seaice/final-gsfc/browse/south/daily/1986/nt_19860708_n07_v1.1_s.png
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0081_nrt_nasateam_seaice/browse/south/nt_20170707_f18_nrt_s.png

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #652 on: July 17, 2017, 03:14:01 PM »
Antarctic Sea Ice Extent once again lowest in the satellite record.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3569
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #653 on: July 17, 2017, 04:29:41 PM »
Also area has taken the lowest position. Looking at the graphs, extent will likely stay lowest a bit longer, area probably not.

extent SH
1985-07-16 15.775432
1995-07-16 15.732109
1980-07-16 15.615618
1989-07-16 15.592934
1990-07-16 15.502736
1986-07-16 15.480906
2002-07-16 15.480702
1983-07-16 15.480661
1991-07-16 15.451098
2017-07-16 15.024859

area SH
1982-07-16 12.455222
1995-07-16 12.433007
1986-07-16 12.352278
2001-07-16 12.349878
1987-07-16 12.341766
2011-07-16 12.240798
1990-07-16 12.224225
1991-07-16 12.200350
1980-07-16 12.178648
2017-07-16 12.141301

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12759
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #654 on: July 18, 2017, 04:13:21 PM »
Modeling Antarctic sea ice is complex and modeling the implications of changes in Antarctic sea ice is even more complex (i.e. Hansen's ice-climate feedback is made more positive by the presences of this sea ice):

Roach, L. A., Dean, S. M., and Renwick, J. A.: Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-131, in review, 2017.

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2017-131/

Abstract. The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 27 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean – sea ice model show that over-estimation of low-concentration cover is partially determined by choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #655 on: July 22, 2017, 02:54:47 PM »
It seems to be a rule that the more we need to know about something the less we do. The Antarctic, the Oceans, the Arctic come to mind.

Meanwhile, despite ferocious sea ice drift leading to high daily increases in extent at a time one expects a reduction, Antarctic Sea Ice is currently lowest in extent in the satellite record.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #656 on: July 31, 2017, 01:27:28 PM »
Jaxa data continues to show above average refreezing. The extent which early in the year was about 1.4 million km2 less than the 1980's average has shrunk to about 0.3 million km2,  to the point the Charctic graph shows the 2017 line rapidly merging into the spaghetti of previous years.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #657 on: August 01, 2017, 11:35:10 AM »
What a difference a day makes. Just when I thought that it was time to forget about Antarctic sea ice extent for a bit, on July 31 daily extent dropped by 80 thousand km2. An oddity ? - will it persist?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Watching_from_Canberra

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 64
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #658 on: August 02, 2017, 07:17:51 AM »
An oddity ? - will it persist?

Well, according to JAXA, Antarctic extent has dropped more in the last 2 days than Arctic extent!

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #659 on: August 02, 2017, 07:32:22 AM »
It may have something to do with the 9 and 10 meter waves on all sides of the sea ice.

magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1212
    • View Profile
    • Nexpaq Modular ARA iOS Software Mobile Computing Phones Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multipelsklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgie
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #660 on: August 02, 2017, 07:36:17 AM »
An oddity ? - will it persist?

Well, according to JAXA, Antarctic extent has dropped more in the last 2 days than Arctic extent!

events like this on the 1st of a month have to be taken with a prise of salt, at times thera are correction and/or algorithm changes. dunno the details but it has been mentioned a few times.

does not mean it didn't happen, just that there might be some exagerations.
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #661 on: August 02, 2017, 07:57:36 AM »
Last year there was a dive in September. The loss was never really recovered.

kiwichick16

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 27
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #662 on: August 02, 2017, 08:30:36 AM »
September is Spring down here..........daylight hours are rapidly increasing.....even now .. 02/08.... we are getting one minute extra per day

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #663 on: August 02, 2017, 04:28:32 PM »
It may have something to do with the 9 and 10 meter waves on all sides of the sea ice.
The sea ice drift is certainly humongeous as in the image below. (If that happened in the Arctic on a daily basis?) But it is not out of the ordinary down there. In winter I have noticed the difference in extent gain from one day to another can be well in excess of 100,000 km2 as the direction of drift switches from off to on shore or vice versa. But that does not seem to be the case over the last few days. Note the strong off-shore drift out of the Weddell sea.

But two days of this odd extent loss is not enough to see if something of note is happening down there.

ps: 2017 sea ice extent is currently 0.5 million km2 less than 2016
pps: could not resist adding the image of the antarctic jet stream. How can anything from further north get through that.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #664 on: August 03, 2017, 05:37:40 AM »
About another 50k drop today. It is still going the wrong way. This could be a big problem if it continues.  Now at 16,319,492 km2 down about 210k since 7-30-2017

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #665 on: August 03, 2017, 01:42:46 PM »
(Jaxa Data) The last three days see a 210,000 km2 reduction in sea ice extent compared with an average increase of about 200,000 at this time of year, i.e. circa 400,000 km2 or 6 days the wrong way.

These wobbles do start to occur from about now as refreezing rates start to quickly drop as maximum approaches in early September. But I have not been able to find  a drop in extent this early in August anywhere in the satellite data. However, it still remains to be seen whether 2017 gets and stays below 2002 and then 1986.

Antarctic sea ice has been lowest, 2nd or 3rd lowest for 270 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1987
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #666 on: August 03, 2017, 04:50:15 PM »
Last years drop....2016....was 3+ weeks early.  I certainly would NOT expect a melt season that started ANOTHER 3+ weeks earlier than that.  THAT....would be astonishingly early.  Everyone here knows the DIRECTION of where things are going....we just don't KNOW how quickly we will proceed.  If we WERE to amazingly start that early this year.....a higher level of alarm bells in the scientific community would no doubt go off. :-[

The POLITICAL ramifications are going to follow the PHYSICAL FACTS.

The world is getting closer to a day when we will HAVE TO initiate a "Marshall Plan" to slow down global warming.  That point is starting to come into focus....with the US being the laggard.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2017, 05:01:35 PM by Buddy »
FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #667 on: August 03, 2017, 05:19:40 PM »
Here is the NSIDC  Daily numbers

2017,    07,  29,     16.496  x 106  km2
2017,    07,  30,     16.586   Peak?
2017,    07,  31,     16.536
2017,    08,  01,     16.477
2017,    08,  02,     16.417

And Graph

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #668 on: August 04, 2017, 05:39:27 AM »
Minor JAXA drop for 8-3-'17 of 8,076 km2 leaving SIE at 16,311,416 km2.
For the time of year, not going up is almost as bad as going down.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #669 on: August 04, 2017, 02:52:37 PM »
With a drop of just 8k km2 as opposed to an average increase of around 70k km2, the wrong way figure over the last 4 days is nearly 500,000 km2 or one week's expected freeze.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #670 on: August 05, 2017, 05:39:31 AM »
Nominal gain of 9,311 km2 for SIE landing at a total of 16,320,727 km2.
Looks like a stall at the least, which really bites for the time of the year, going by which there should still be some growing vs. a stall.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #671 on: August 05, 2017, 12:45:03 PM »
If Extent Gain from now to maximum is at the average of the last 10 years, Antarctic sea ice extent will max out at around 17.8 million km2, some 0.2 million below the 2002 maximum ((2002 melt then became far less than the average.),0.7 million less than 2016.

There is therefore a good chance 2107 maximum will be lowest in the satellite record. The table below shows how little difference there has been in total melt over the last 10 years.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #672 on: August 05, 2017, 10:47:18 PM »
Looking at the high waves and SST's around the sea ice of Antarctica, it appears that there is really nowhere left much for growth because of these. A similar thing happened earlier this year in the Arctic. Therefore the current situation may persist until the end of September there(Ant.) when the true melting begins. The global sea ice extent chart is going to look ridiculous by the time this year is over. Perhaps the sea temps will limit the growth of sea ice in both regions a little more each year. What a phenomena, to reduce sea ice by disallowing growth beyond a certain point.

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #673 on: August 05, 2017, 11:27:28 PM »
Sea ice concentration vs sea water temps at a half meter down. The is very little room for growth where the water is cold enough, and the waves are too rough for any cooling. The darkest shade is where the water is at or close to -1.8oC. CLICK IMAGE

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #674 on: August 06, 2017, 05:48:46 AM »
So much for theories. A big jump back up to 16,471,947 km2. Let's see what the long range does.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #675 on: August 09, 2017, 02:50:04 PM »
So much for theories. A big jump back up to 16,471,947 km2. Let's see what the long range does.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down again.
On average the extent gain is 92% done. Just 1.3 million km2 to go.
I am still plumping for a max extent of 18 million km2 +/- 0.25 million km2
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Hyperion

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 177
  • Admiral Franklin of the McGillicuddy Highland Navy
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #676 on: August 10, 2017, 12:04:05 AM »
Meanwhile its 4.1C on the Antarctic Peninsular, and Raining. In the middle of the coldest month in Winter.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/08/10/2100Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/equirectangular=-169.52,-85.14,822/loc=-63.535,-69.962

Would have put this in "whats New in Antarctica" but this happened last year too.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #677 on: August 10, 2017, 05:41:41 AM »
Antarctic SIE has practically stalled again with a couple of nominal gains in a row.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #678 on: August 10, 2017, 01:22:31 PM »
Herewith a little table indicating the possibilities for the maximum extent (per JAXA).
Three indicate a tendency for below 18 million km2, while 2012, (highest remaining freeze in the last 10 years,) shows a max of 18.4 million km2. If we had a poll, I would still be going for 18 +/- 0.25 million km2.

Half? off-topic.A real possibility of global sea ice extent max of 22 million km2 or even a bit less in early or mid-September ? That would raise some eyebrows ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 278
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #679 on: August 10, 2017, 02:31:24 PM »
Old gits with some background in electronics, such as myself, might remember the Signetics 555 timer, as it was almost ubiquitous in circuit design a few decades ago.

It was just that bit of weird arcane knowledge which caused me to do a quick double-take at the Antarctic tab in my JAXA/ADS extent tracker today. The rolling 365-day average has just dropped to  10.536 million sq kms, which displays on my spreadsheet as now being 555k sq kms lower than the previous lowest, which was set way back in August of 1980.
(How time[r]s have changed.  ;))

This current figure of 10.536 is still dropping at ~1.5k/day, and, considering that the 2016 Antarctic extent values didn't start to plummet until next month, it is definitely possible that, during September, the rolling-365 could end up more than 1 million sq kms below the 1980's average of 11.486 million sq kms.

The equivalent rolling-365 taken from the NSIDC dailies lags somewhat at "only" 408k sq kms lower than the erstwhile lowest ever NSIDC value from 1980; a difference of 147k sq kms between itself and the equivalent ADS reduction. However, the delta between the two sets of data has remained pretty constant for some time now.

The ADS rolling-365 equalled the 1980 record-low value on January 26th of this year; on the same date, the NSIDC equivalent was 138k higher than its 1980 figure.

The NSIDC rolling-365 attained parity with its equivalent 1980 record-low on March 26th, by which time the ADS number was 142k sq kms lower than its previous record low.

As mentioned above, the current amount by which the ADS record-low has been reduced now stands at 147k more than the equivalent NSIDC reduction. In other words, the delta between the two sets of data has changed by about 9k in a period of around 6 or 7 months.

So, the next time you hear one of the flat-earth brigade spew forth some drivel about "gains in Antarctic sea ice more or less cancel out losses in the Arctic", you'll be able to tell them precisely which orifice they're talking out of.   ;D


I was just about to hit the "Post" button, when the old Red Alert informed me that another comment had arrived whilst I was typing.


Apropos of gerontocrat's musing about the September value, it will also be very interesting to see what happens come November, as that is traditionally the time of the global sea ice maximum.

A few days ago, on another thread, I posted a chart showing the recent behaviour of the rolling-365 for global sea ice, and I've appended that below. (It has dropped another 7k sq kms in the intervening 5 days.)

As the current value is ~ 22.318 million sq kms, one cannot help but wonder when that might drop below 22? In the last 4 and a half months, it has lost ~ 318k sq kms, so it is not outwith the realms of possibility that we could see sub-22 by around Christmas time - just what we don't need as a present!

« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 02:49:09 PM by Bill Fothergill »

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #680 on: August 14, 2017, 01:20:14 PM »
Jaxa Sea Ice Extent data. Average refers to 2007-2016.

By now on average 93% of extent increase is done for the year, with just over 1 million km2 extent gain to go.. The data suggests a maximum extent of between 17.7 and 18.3 million km2. If Antarctic conditions are similar to those in 2016, i.e. in reduced extent increases, then this favours an outcome at the lower end of the range and an early date for maximum.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1486
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #681 on: August 14, 2017, 08:39:39 PM »
I wonder what affect Iceberg A-68 (recently part of Larsen Shelf) will have on the Antarctic sea ice near it, come SH spring/summer.  Will all the fractures cause an early dispersal? (today's PolarView image)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 278
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #682 on: August 14, 2017, 09:29:00 PM »
@ gerontocrat

It will be interesting indeed to see how your projections regarding the max turn out.

During 2016, the max of 18.5 million sq kms occurred at the ridiculously early date of 29th August. It then dropped rapidly over a period of ~2 weeks, before spending the subsequent ~7 weeks in various of the lowest 4 positions. Of course, as we all know, it started to seriously separate from the rest early in November.

Looking at inter-annual differences on specific dates can be somewhat prone to cherry picking, but it can be educational to look at how the rolling 365-day average has differed from year to year.

As the latest available data is for the 13th August, here's how the rolling-365 shapes up on that date for each year from 2000 onward...

 Year      Average extent (in millions of sq kms)
2000      11.82
2001      11.79
2002      11.25
2003      11.75
2004      11.77
2005      11.63
2006      11.26
2007      11.51
2008      12.24
2009      11.93
2010      11.93
2011      11.56
2012      11.86
2013      12.25
2014      12.69
2015      12.69
2016      11.57
2017      10.53

That's a reduction of a frankly astonishing 2.16 million sq kms in the last 2 years. Hopefully next year will be nowhere near as bad! (To add a bit more context, the overall average from Jan 1979 to Dec 2016 was 11.714 million sq kms.)

Attached below is a zoomed view from ADS, and, with a bit of multiple-imaging and cropping, I've managed to highlight both 2016 and 2017. There is still a bit of "low hanging fruit" over the next 3 or 4 weeks, but, by then, the reduction rate in the rolling 365-day average should - hopefully - ease off.

The second attachment consists of two simple tables; the first shows the daily values on the 13th August for each year, and the second gives the daily values for the 25th October - a date approximately as far after the max as we currently are before it.

I really hope that the maximum will be considerably later than 2016, otherwise I'll seriously start to worry about the Antarctic as well.


gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #683 on: August 14, 2017, 10:49:24 PM »
Good heavens Bill.
What else have you got inside your computer?

Your image as an oldie unable to function without a few beers is under threat.

But - if the Antarctic max is early, and as is also very possible, the Arctic min staggers along through September, whither the global sea ice extent ?
"I want to know".
« Last Edit: August 14, 2017, 10:56:12 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #684 on: August 14, 2017, 11:22:27 PM »
 gerontocrat
But - if the Antarctic max is early, and as is also very possible, the Arctic min staggers along through September, whither the global sea ice extent ?
"I want to know".
Maybe the Arctic doesn't even get any real freezing momentum until October. Hence the global extent thread that I just started. I could be wrong, but I think that to be the thing to watch.

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3569
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #685 on: August 18, 2017, 02:54:18 PM »
NSIDC talk.
Most of the year extent was among the lowest for the day while area was more near "normal".  Area has not increased much in the last two weeks and is now the lowest for the day. In the same period extent continued to grow slowly and is now third lowest, very close to numbers 2 and 4 (1983,1986).

extent SH
2015-08-17 17.670308
1990-08-17 17.651459
2003-08-17 17.588286
1993-08-17 17.508462
2007-08-17 17.479746
1987-08-17 17.456403
1986-08-17 17.188608
2017-08-17 17.182489
1983-08-17 17.181426
2002-08-17 16.885662

area SH
1980-08-17 13.952788
2007-08-17 13.898502
2015-08-17 13.896400
2005-08-17 13.867166
2003-08-17 13.770086
1979-08-17 13.741580
1983-08-17 13.714794
1986-08-17 13.576629
2002-08-17 13.363494
2017-08-17 13.338877

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1987
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #686 on: August 18, 2017, 09:17:06 PM »
Can it outdo 2016?  Certainly possible...looks like it is trying to "roll over".  Just the fact that it is close to the same EARLY max time is impressive.  If it ends up being EARLIER and LOWER would be yet another shot across the bow as we move closer still to the day when a "renewable energy Marshall Plan" is initiated.

FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

RealityCheck

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #687 on: August 19, 2017, 09:02:32 AM »
Tigertown, where have you opened the global sea ice extent thread please? Thanks.
Sic transit gloria mundi

RealityCheck

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #688 on: August 19, 2017, 09:07:57 AM »
Also, given your 'name' here, can you identify the species in my photo? (O-T I know, but a once-off 😁)
Sic transit gloria mundi

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1599
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #689 on: August 19, 2017, 01:07:23 PM »
Tigertown, where have you opened the global sea ice extent thread please? Thanks.


It is under The Rest category.  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2136.0.html

My namesake is from the development I live next to, so I am no expert on cats, despite the limited coincidental knowledge that I have of them. I would guess a Bengal Tiger.

RealityCheck

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #690 on: August 19, 2017, 06:54:46 PM »
Thanks TT
(And it's a Sumatran Tiger... the image stayed with me - the parallels with humanity, and all that. A species living in a limited space, and trapped like this one was. Except of course, as humans, we're destroying both his habitat and our own... Back to on-topic now.. )
Sic transit gloria mundi

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #691 on: August 21, 2017, 02:09:20 PM »
JAXA Data.

Since 14th August, Antarctic sea ice extent gain has been well above the average, almost a mirror of the low extent loss in the Arctic.
I attach a table and graph.
I also attach an extract of the next 5 day max temperature image from cci-reanalyzer. Note the "feathers" at the top and bottom? I've never seen that before. Mind you, it is very windy down there at the moment - thin sea ice at the margins being swirled into patterns?
« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 04:49:43 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #692 on: August 26, 2017, 02:00:41 PM »
It is 5 days since the last posting so here are some more (JAXA) sea ice extent numbers.

N.B. Not predictions - in the last 2 previous years the maximum extent date has been 29 Aug (2016) and 2nd October (2015). Merely a range of possible outcomes is presented in the table below.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #693 on: August 27, 2017, 03:07:37 PM »
JAXA have a 25 thousand km2 extent loss on 26th August, 0.76 million km2 less than 2016. 2002 still lowest - just.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #694 on: August 28, 2017, 02:34:12 PM »
(JAXA Data) And another 60 thousand km2 extent loss on 27th August. 85k in two days.
Two days losses not enough to state current extent is the maximum with confidence.
If 2017 replicates 2016 over the next 3 weeks - good golly, miss molly! (see graph below).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #695 on: August 29, 2017, 01:39:27 PM »
Another 40k km2 extent loss on the 28th August according to Jaxa.
That is 125 thousand extent reduction in three days when one would on average expect a gain of a similar amount.

Still too early to call a maximum on an unprecedented date of 26th August, methinks.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1987
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #696 on: August 29, 2017, 07:21:25 PM »
It may be too early to call (as you say).... but a max in Antarctica now is a very real possibility....especially after last years early max.  Two years in a row would certainly heighten the worry in the science community....although it is already on heightened alert.

The only people not worried would be the people lying about it like Hannity, FOX News, dimwit Donnie, and many GOP congressmen supported by the O & G industry.

« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 04:33:09 PM by Buddy »
FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #697 on: August 30, 2017, 02:43:26 PM »
Jaxa extent down by a statistically insignificant 6 k km2 on the 29th. Often this seems to herald a switch. Certainly not able to call a maximum yet.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 614
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #698 on: September 01, 2017, 02:37:02 PM »
Actual RAIN (not snow) forecast on Antarctic coast.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Pavel

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 104
    • View Profile
Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #699 on: September 02, 2017, 10:12:27 AM »
Another extent drop and is now the lowest ever observed. Meanwhile it's going to be a strong warming, more than 4 °C anomaly forecasted in Antarctica