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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1100 on: May 23, 2017, 05:17:51 PM »
Yesterday's DMI NOAA AVHRR image shows Smith Sound very nicely. I've annotated a screenshot.
Great image, thanks Tor

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1101 on: May 23, 2017, 09:57:37 PM »
I just noticed the fast ice on the Greenland side of Hans Island broke between May 8 and 11, leaving the fast ice remaining on Franklin Island.  (The big floe hitting Hans Island on May 17 shattered, by the way.) (I'm making a correction on a previous Hans Is./fast ice post...)
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Phil.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1102 on: May 24, 2017, 03:18:30 AM »
A big polynya just opened up north of the entrance to Nares st, the ice there is becoming more and more fragmented.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2017143201500-2017143202000.2km.jpg

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1103 on: May 25, 2017, 03:39:00 PM »
Big Chunk appears to be disintegrating (largely) in place!  This PolarView image from yesterday has, more or less, Big Chunk circled.  I think the most solid remaining Big Chunk floe is the piece at the right end of the circled area.  Meanwhile, 'thick' Lincoln Sea ice floes are moving past at about 40 km/day (some with arrows). DMI's AQUA (mostly) clear sky image is from May 21.  Arrowed flows are not the same floes in the two screen prints!  (Smith Sound is about 40 km wide.)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1104 on: May 25, 2017, 05:36:37 PM »
Cross post, for a bit of nostalgia (see Neven's message ending link to an 'old' ASIB post).
If Nares does not block up, what happens?
https://media.giphy.com/media/3oKIPiympmurT33vPO/giphy.gif
Hard for me to imagine the Nares blocking up with GFS now calling for the next 5 days of significant winds occurring there. The GFS has been trending that way and it's only gotten stronger.
I don't believe I've ever seen a traffic jam in Nares Strait once the arches broke. And I've looked for it, right after starting the ASIB (see here).
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Tigertown

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1105 on: May 25, 2017, 09:56:57 PM »
Not much left now, as the remnants are dispersing.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1106 on: May 27, 2017, 01:11:59 PM »
and a (partial) cross post showing the remnants of Big Chunk washing into Baffin Bay:
...
Here [is] ... a ... gif - the block smash in Nares strait.

I've published a bit of python code for retreiving sequences of worldview images over on the gif creation thread - it's already helpful but its just a snippet so far http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1259.msg114906.html#msg114906
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Phil.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1107 on: May 27, 2017, 04:31:50 PM »
Now there is a steady 'river' of fragments flowing down the west side of the strait.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1108 on: May 27, 2017, 05:05:35 PM »
The triangle of what I presume is the thickest ice in the Lincoln Sea - the pale triangle along the Greenland coast (split by a long nearly-parellel-to-the-coast polynya) is quite broken up.  As these pieces (presumably) head toward Nares Strait, I do not expect them to cause any delays in export of sea ice. (PolarView image from May 24 - Nares Strait's north end is in the lower left corner of screen print)
« Last Edit: May 27, 2017, 05:10:54 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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dosibl

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1109 on: May 27, 2017, 05:15:22 PM »
Wind forecast 24 hours from now looks pretty dire on nullschool, it then proceeds to get worse. If this plays out it'll be the ultimate experiment in attempting to clog the Nares.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/05/28/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-60.36,85.27,2758/loc=-56.263,82.716

Andreas T

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1110 on: May 28, 2017, 10:29:36 AM »
To get an idea how much ice has left the Lincoln sea into Nares strait, I have tracked some floes back to the 12th when they were at the position they had when the ice arch broke.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 10:38:24 AM by Andreas T »

Phil.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1111 on: May 28, 2017, 11:11:12 AM »
To get an idea how much ice has left the Lincoln sea into Nares strait, I have tracked some floes back to the 12th when they were at the position they had when the ice arch broke.

That's great Andreas, it really highlights how much is leaving.  Not much sign that it's going to stop any time soon.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1112 on: May 28, 2017, 12:02:46 PM »
Andreas - superb animation, thanks. It's amazing how the pieces break and accelerate at the entrance, like going down the drain...

bairgon

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1113 on: May 28, 2017, 01:57:01 PM »
To get an idea how much ice has left the Lincoln sea into Nares strait, I have tracked some floes back to the 12th when they were at the position they had when the ice arch broke.

At a very rough guesstimate of area, that is a triangle with sides of 140km. That works out to around 8500km^2. The last image in the sequence is 27th May, so that is 15 days of export.

Therefore export rate is around 550 km^2 per day. That matches well with my original estimate of 500km^2:

Looking at the export over the last couple of days at start of the Robeson Channel (see gif) I estimate about 500 km^2 exported per day

Shared Humanity

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1114 on: May 28, 2017, 03:32:17 PM »
Wind forecast 24 hours from now looks pretty dire on nullschool, it then proceeds to get worse. If this plays out it'll be the ultimate experiment in attempting to clog the Nares.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/05/28/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-60.36,85.27,2758/loc=-56.263,82.716

The Nares is open for the season. It will not clog up (if by this you mean ice not flowing south) until the next freeze season.

Andreas T

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1115 on: May 28, 2017, 04:47:57 PM »
To get an idea how much ice has left the Lincoln sea into Nares strait, I have tracked some floes back to the 12th when they were at the position they had when the ice arch broke.

At a very rough guesstimate of area, that is a triangle with sides of 140km. That works out to around 8500km^2. The last image in the sequence is 27th May, so that is 15 days of export.

Therefore export rate is around 550 km^2 per day. That matches well with my original estimate of 500km^2:

Looking at the export over the last couple of days at start of the Robeson Channel (see gif) I estimate about 500 km^2 exported per day
I meant to do this earlier myself: the area marked with a thin yellow line on an overlay of 9th and 14th May measures 9670 km2 , so your number is a pretty close underestimate.
Although the daily rate is probably correct to allow for another day or two to let the whole marked area pass into Nares strait.
If I take the Lincoln sea as the   area below a line from the northern tip of Ellesmere to the northern tip of Greenland, then that area is 4.8 times that. (43600km2) That means it would be cleared in about three more months of going at the same rate. Just to put this into context, lets see what happens.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 05:18:53 PM by Andreas T »

stackmaster

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1116 on: May 29, 2017, 03:25:53 AM »

Just when you might have thought we reached peak shattering.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/201705281857.NOAA.jpg


Shared Humanity

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1117 on: May 29, 2017, 03:39:55 AM »
That looks really bad.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1118 on: May 29, 2017, 07:00:46 AM »
The Lincoln Sea breakup continues in an ugly way.
On the other hand, if it drifts west this chunk of fast ice is another chance to jam the entrance to Nares, making for interesting watching before it shatters. Though I find it more probable it drifts towards the Fram instead.

bairgon

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1119 on: May 29, 2017, 10:05:22 AM »
I've been watching this ice separating in the Kane basin recently.

That was big chunk which is no more.

Now the remains of the ice are being hammered. See Worldview.


FishOutofWater

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1120 on: May 29, 2017, 08:20:18 PM »
That ice on NW Greenland was supposed to be some of the thickest sea ice in the Arctic. It's going to be down the Nares in a month or two and gone. The state of the ice in the CAA is pathetic, shattered like a high pressure vessel that exploded. The ice that usually has the most integrity in the Arctic is in fragments.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1121 on: May 29, 2017, 09:48:53 PM »
That ice on NW Greenland was supposed to be some of the thickest sea ice in the Arctic. It's going to be down the Nares in a month or two and gone. The state of the ice in the CAA is pathetic, shattered like a high pressure vessel that exploded. The ice that usually has the most integrity in the Arctic is in fragments.
According to PIOMAS animation from a month ago, it is indeed the thickest ice in the arctic, and a bad asset to lose.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg112164.html#msg112164

Tigertown

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1122 on: May 29, 2017, 10:02:52 PM »
Warm water had most likely been working on that fast ice from below for quite some time now, and probably the whole area as far as that goes. Of course, none of the remnants left from last summer ever really got a chance to bond together properly over the winter. Plus, personally, I think all the thickness models need re-calibrated.

P.S. CMEMS shows this area as currently having the thickest ice in the Arctic at 3.85 meters at the center; very much in harmony with PIOMAS.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 10:23:51 PM by Tigertown »

Andreas T

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1123 on: May 29, 2017, 10:49:34 PM »
according to this paper  linked by Terry in the Petermann thread strong winds in Nares strait help to bring saltier and warmer water to the surface. this would explain the melting which can be seen, particularly on the Greenland side where this upwelling is said to occur.
http://muenchow.cms.udel.edu/papers/Nares2011Warming.pdf

bairgon

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1124 on: May 31, 2017, 08:12:36 PM »
Does the current also explain the way the ice is separating from the north of Greenland for a considerable distance? There seems to be a movement away from Fram and towards Nares, even across the far side of the northern headland on Greenland.

There was a mention recently of a current becoming established in Nares, and then being self-sustaining. If that is the case then perhaps we will see a continuous clearing of the top of Greenland throughout the summer.

Would dearly like to know what Andreas is thinking about this ATM.

Edit: Perhaps explained by the drift today: see

The ACNFS drift forecast.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2017, 08:18:29 PM by bairgon »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1125 on: June 01, 2017, 05:06:33 PM »
Looking at EOSDIS Worldview images of the Robeson Channel - Lincoln Sea portal for the past week,  it appears that on-the-order-of 300 to 500 sq. km. of ice [area] is being exported each day (27 km wide x 15-25 km movement/day x 80% concentration).  Once in Robeson Channel it speeds up and will ultimately (but not immediately) melt in southern waters.  I'm sure this is small potatoes compared with Fram Strait, but this is all ~3 meter thick ice at this time, so export is on the order of 1 cubic kilometer per day (if my presumptions and calculations are right).  The two months of 'early' Nares export (due to the Lincoln ice bridge breaking about 2 months early) may yield (roughly) 50 km3 of extra export.
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bairgon

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1126 on: June 01, 2017, 08:30:08 PM »
That's good to have independent confirmation of my earlier guess:

Assuming that we have an additional 2 month's flow through Nares compared to previous years, that is an additional 60 km^3 lost which is, very roughly, about 2-3% of the total ice volume in September.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1127 on: June 01, 2017, 09:55:52 PM »
I now recall reading what you wrote, but didn't "use" your information when making my measurements and calculations - so it was, in fact, independent.  :)
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bairgon

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1128 on: June 01, 2017, 11:24:45 PM »
NP. It's the way science works - independent confirmation of results. I respect this forum for its scientific and facts-based approach.

There may be the odd radical theory :-)

bairgon

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1129 on: June 01, 2017, 11:33:55 PM »
Cross post - NASA commentary on the Nares Arch:


Is there any history of this area being open... ever(in the satellite era, anyway)? Along the Greenland North coast, I mean.

I'm not really sure what the implications of it is, so I'm curious if there's anything comparable that's happened.

You can read more about the event here: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90245

georged

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1130 on: June 02, 2017, 11:53:09 AM »
I've been watching this ice separating in the Kane basin recently.

That was big chunk which is no more.

Now the remains of the ice are being hammered. See Worldview.

Ice is being hammered all around the Greenland coast. It's quite sobering to watch such rapid disintegration within a couple of days.

Reallybigbunny

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1131 on: June 02, 2017, 02:07:55 PM »
The ice export around Greenland is quite sensational currently! I can't see anything like it this early in the melt season in previous years! The ice is so thin it is shattering and being sucked down the Nares. A 20 mile long block is just entering Nares.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1132 on: June 02, 2017, 08:32:17 PM »
Thanks for the link to the paper on Nares upwelling salty warm water. I wrote about that being a likely culprit without having seen the paper. As a body surfer who has lived in California I am very aware of coastal upwelling associated with winds. The Lincoln sea and the coast of Greenland will be even more strongly affected by Eckman effects now that the ice is so mobile and the coast is clear of thick ice. The Nares must develop some very intense eddies - not a good place for your sailboat.

As I wrote before I suspect that any ice entering the Nares is going to begin melting because of the upwelling of relatively salty water. It's impossible to track the fine fragments of ice using internet evidence so I can't prove I'm right but there's good reason to think that warm water is melting ice from below in the Nares strait.

Tigertown

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1133 on: June 02, 2017, 09:17:12 PM »
What an appetite!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1134 on: June 02, 2017, 09:52:16 PM »
Fish,
This upwelling warm water surely accounts for the Lincoln Sea polynya, too.  (I.e., the answer to: Why do arches form in the Lincoln Sea and not at the top end of Robeson Channel?)  The location of the sill is surely relevant to this.

(I recall some years ago seeing references to the L.S. polynya, rather than to the L.S. ice arch/bridge.)
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Andreas T

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1135 on: June 04, 2017, 08:29:38 PM »
in the last three days winds have been from the Baffin end towards the North as sen by the Automated Weather station on Hans island https://dataservices.sams.ac.uk/aws/
movement of ice has slowed down considerably. That it is still moving southward, although almost at a standstill from yesterday to today, must be due to water movement which is driven in part by differences in air pressure beween Baffin and Lincoln.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1136 on: June 08, 2017, 07:02:50 PM »
I tried following a floe near the south end of Nares Strait back up to the north, but time gaps in coverage stopped me.  A few floes did dance around in Kane Basin for a few days, though.

On DMI's June 4 TERRA image of the Kennedy Channel, the largest floe in the Strait was opposite Petermann Fjord.  A smaller oval floe was near Joe Island.  (Both outlined.)  On the June 7 image, the oval floe appears to remain intact, but the larger floe disintegrated, probably on Joe Island, but possibly on Hans Island.  The oval floe (presuming I have the same floe identified in the two images) went 120 km in 3 days.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1137 on: June 09, 2017, 03:32:43 PM »
I experimented with Snagit's video ability, and made one showing Lincoln Sea ice (former Greenland fast ice) inching toward Nares Strait, and breaking up.  (DMI Terra images from May 31, June 4 and June 8 ) [I'll remove this if it doesn't work!  It works! Yeah!!] (Note: Nares Strait is about 27 km wide at it north end.)
« Last Edit: June 09, 2017, 03:38:17 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Chuck Yokota

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1138 on: June 10, 2017, 03:06:32 AM »
It is very sobering to see what is supposed the oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic crumbling away as it moves.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1139 on: June 12, 2017, 04:49:29 PM »
A largish floe, from the (probably) thickest former-Greenland-fast-ice is just entering Robeson Channel (northern Nares Strait).  As the winds, according to Windytv, will generally not be supportive of a quick trip down the Nares, will this floe get stuck on Joe or Hans Islands?  The current, however, is swift:  a floe that entered Robeson Channel on June 7 or 8 (clouds...) moved 45 km between June 9 and 10 (per EOSDIS Worldview). Screen shot from PolarView - June 11, 2017. GIF from Worldview.
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numerobis

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1140 on: June 13, 2017, 03:57:27 PM »
LaPresse blames the cancellation of the Amundsen's mission on the failure of the Nares arch: http://www.lapresse.ca/environnement/climat/201706/13/01-5106982-les-changements-climatiques-coulent-une-mission-scientifique.php

Quote
Des embâcles se forment habituellement au printemps dans le détroit de Nares, entre le Groenland et l'île d'Ellesmere, empêchant la banquise de descendre vers le sud. Cette année, la glace trop mince et trop molle a empêché la formation des embâcles, si bien que d'énormes quantités de glace ont descendu vers le sud, s'accumulant notamment entre l'île de Terre-Neuve et le Labrador. Voyant cela, la Garde côtière n'a eu d'autre choix que d'envoyer l'Amundsen à la rescousse, son seul brise-glace de calibre suffisant alors en état de naviguer.

(My translation): "Ice jams normally form in spring in the Nares Strait, between Greenland and Ellsmere Island, stopping the sea ice from flowing South. This year, thin and soft ice prevented the ice jams from forming, so that enormous quantities of ice flowed South, accumulating notably between the island of Newfoundland and the Labrador mainland. The Coast Guard had no choice but to send the Amundsen to the rescue, it being the Coast Guard's only operable ice breaker."

More details in the story, largely based on an interview with Barber from U.Manitoba.

Reggie

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1141 on: June 13, 2017, 06:10:58 PM »
@numerobis

Here is a CBC english report regarding the cancellation of the science mission. Scientists measured the ice as being between 5 and 8 meters thick.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/climate-change-study-1.4157216
 
« Last Edit: June 14, 2017, 04:35:23 AM by Reggie »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1142 on: June 13, 2017, 07:25:06 PM »
A largish floe, from the (probably) thickest former-Greenland-fast-ice is just entering Robeson Channel (northern Nares Strait).  As the winds, according to Windytv, will generally not be supportive of a quick trip down the Nares, will this floe get stuck on Joe or Hans Islands?  The current, however, is swift:  a floe that entered Robeson Channel on June 7 or 8 (clouds...) moved 45 km between June 9 and 10 (per EOSDIS Worldview).
The largish floe has managed southward progress of about 12 km in 3 days (June 10-13).  The slightly smaller square-ish floe that was beside it (on its NW side) on the 10th went 90 km in those same 3 days!  This is evidence of the strong current along the Ellesmere Island coast.
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Reallybigbunny

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1143 on: June 13, 2017, 09:53:17 PM »
Great read, thanks Reggie!

Andreas T

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1144 on: June 13, 2017, 09:54:20 PM »
The weather station on Hans island shows an interesting pattern over the last few days, it seems the wind blows either up or down the strait, quickly flipping 180 deg into the opposite direction.
https://dataservices.sams.ac.uk/aws/

numerobis

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1145 on: June 13, 2017, 10:14:08 PM »
@numerobis

Here is a CBC english report regarding the cancellation of the science mission. Scientists measured the ice as being between 3 and 8 meters thick.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/climate-change-study-1.4157216

Thanks! Nice to see the two reports focus on different details of the story, they're not just bad translations of the same AP copy.

Adam Ash

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1146 on: June 14, 2017, 03:40:41 AM »
The weather station on Hans island shows an interesting pattern over the last few days, it seems the wind blows either up or down the strait, quickly flipping 180 deg into the opposite direction.
https://dataservices.sams.ac.uk/aws/

'Flipping 180 degrees'?  Not quite - just going from 359 degrees to 1 degree - a 2 degree swing.  A flaw of the graph display method, not a feature of the weather!

So wind from (to?) between 240 degrees and 60 degrees. 

RikW

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1147 on: June 15, 2017, 08:44:20 AM »
It's around 240 or around 50 degree, so almost flipping

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1148 on: June 17, 2017, 08:47:10 AM »
The high temps have caused the fast ice in fjords emptying into the strait, including Petermann, to turn a deep blue over the past couple of weeks. Tor, you should be able to see the different tinge here (I hope).

Shared Humanity

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #1149 on: June 17, 2017, 02:31:43 PM »
Snow cover has melted as well.