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solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #550 on: February 12, 2015, 07:22:41 PM »
Right now [16:12] on http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.48,86.69,1024 we have winds blowing directly out of both ends the strait. If that doesn't keep it open nothing will.

Except that it's 5 - 10 knots on the edges, 0 - 5 in the strait.  Next big wind event has slowed down to Sunday from Saturday.  Not much will happen until then.
http://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps/forecast/greenland#4/81.43/-68.99
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #551 on: February 12, 2015, 07:45:51 PM »
Comparing Sentinel 02-09 and 02-11 images, ice moved 'upstream' across the entire length of Nares Strait except for the north 10 or 20 km (north Robeson Channel) where it didn't move.  This slow motion could allow local ice to form a continuous sheet and stop the ice for the season (one giant bridge?).  From a couple of sources, winds along Nares Strait appear fairly weak and generally from the south (S, SE or SW) right now. 

I'm not, however, convinced that Nares ice export has ended for the season.
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Susan Anderson

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #552 on: February 12, 2015, 08:57:35 PM »
Thanks everyone for all the images.  Fascinating.  I'm getting some input about how ice loss and breakup since at least 2007 made this possible, that it used to be over 100 feet thick and last much longer.

viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #553 on: February 12, 2015, 09:14:12 PM »
Interesting point, Susan! Comparisons of the Nares 2015 season to 2007 would be welcome from the folks in the know (I believe we even have people who've been there and done research?).

Could 2015 be the biggest Nares Strait season in a 100 years, for instance?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #554 on: February 13, 2015, 02:59:12 AM »
I'm an observer without anything like the expertise I find here.  But I got permission to include my friend's comment which is more detailed:

"Back in about 2007 that strait was frozen solid all winter long and didn't rid itself of the ice blocking it until May or June. People simp!y forget how thick the ice used to be. Some of the land fast ice shelves attached to Ellesmere were over 120 feet thick. They all broke off and disappeared. There are places up there where the ice covered the sea surface for more than 14000 years. It's all gone."

wili

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #555 on: February 13, 2015, 04:36:47 AM »
SA, I'm a big fan of yours from RC. Please stick around and lend your perspective (and that of any friends or strangers...)!
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #556 on: February 13, 2015, 08:57:18 AM »
I'm an observer without anything like the expertise I find here.  But I got permission to include my friend's comment which is more detailed:

"Back in about 2007 that strait was frozen solid all winter long and didn't rid itself of the ice blocking it until May or June. People simp!y forget how thick the ice used to be. Some of the land fast ice shelves attached to Ellesmere were over 120 feet thick. They all broke off and disappeared. There are places up there where the ice covered the sea surface for more than 14000 years. It's all gone."

Indeed. If I remember correctly, this is the thing that convinces Judith Curry that what is happening in the Arctic, isn't all natural.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #557 on: February 13, 2015, 11:01:32 AM »
I'm sure this has been mentioned before, but from Kwok et. al. 2010:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL041872/full

Quote
In 2007, ice arches failed to form. This resulted in the highest outflow of Arctic sea ice in the 13-year record between 1997 and 2009. The 2007 area and volume outflows of 87 × 103 km2 and 254 km3 are more than twice their 13-year means. This contributes to the recent loss of the thick, multiyear Arctic sea ice and represents ∼10% of our estimates of the mean ice export at Fram Strait.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #558 on: February 13, 2015, 04:40:19 PM »

viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #559 on: February 13, 2015, 06:14:02 PM »
Quote
The 2007 area and volume outflows of 87 × 103 km2 and 254 km3 are more than twice their 13-year means.

Thanks, Jim! Any chance of getting such figures for 2015, or rather before 2015 is history?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #560 on: February 13, 2015, 06:40:28 PM »
Thanks, nukefix.  Ice in northern Baffin Bay moved up to 18 km between Sentinel 02-11 and 02-12 Kane Basin images.  Ice in Smith Sound has moved about 10 km and some ice in southern Kane Basin (just 'above' the most 'upstream' crack) has moved maybe 1 km.  All this movement is southward.

We'll get to see how sturdy the newly formed ice sheets are.  Will they hold?  Will they shatter?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #561 on: February 13, 2015, 08:43:25 PM »
The water is getting sticky around Nares and weird? (Feb 11 and 13):
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #562 on: February 13, 2015, 08:59:30 PM »
Thanks Wili and Neven. I'm around most days, just don't always weigh in.  Currently I can't comment on the main thread, so will trespass here, not entirely OT.  My specialty, if you could call it that, is visual inspection of global circulation shown in water vapor animations and observation of the connections in weather patterns.  My home Boston has been in the news lately, and I have friends abroad and am interested in the whole planet.  Our weather bombs have been huge and when they get to the Atlantic they head north.  Tenney got me looking at the streams that go straight north for a long distance, and we've had those in the north Atlantic for weeks now, very unusual.  I can't help but think the push of heat north is part of this phenomenon.

My skills are not up to displaying this (the setup is dreamy, it's just me), and it changes with time, but this is some of what I'm talking about.  It's similar in the Pacific, but Alaska makes a kind of armpit that redirects the flow differently.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=nhem&url=../imgs/wv_nhem_anim.gif

Another friend who consults for meteorologists has a nice simple way of putting it, US centric because of the context:

"The mushroom form is actually a sort of vortex which is probably the most efficient energy dissipater know in Nature!  The picture also highlights the extraordinary warmth in both Atlantic and Pacific that is a major factor in setting up the jet stream pattern that we're seeing with abnormal cold over eastern North American and abnormal warmth out west."

Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #563 on: February 14, 2015, 08:56:24 AM »
At the northern entrance to the Nares Strait (and in the Lincoln Sea) the ice stands absolutely still. In the middle it moves enough to make two narrow cracks, one above and one below Hall Basin.

(click to animate)

Espen

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #564 on: February 14, 2015, 09:10:36 AM »
Wipneus, it is getting sticky now?
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Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #565 on: February 14, 2015, 09:27:03 AM »
It is nearly windless, ice still cracks as the ice is thin. I would call this a delicate balance that won't last but can develop several ways.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #566 on: February 14, 2015, 03:25:53 PM »
Thanks Wili and Neven. I'm around most days, just don't always weigh in.  Currently I can't comment on the main thread, so will trespass here, not entirely OT.  My specialty, if you could call it that, is visual inspection of global circulation shown in water vapor animations and observation of the connections in weather patterns.  My home Boston has been in the news lately, and I have friends abroad and am interested in the whole planet.  Our weather bombs have been huge and when they get to the Atlantic they head north.  Tenney got me looking at the streams that go straight north for a long distance, and we've had those in the north Atlantic for weeks now, very unusual.  I can't help but think the push of heat north is part of this phenomenon.

My skills are not up to displaying this (the setup is dreamy, it's just me), and it changes with time, but this is some of what I'm talking about.  It's similar in the Pacific, but Alaska makes a kind of armpit that redirects the flow differently.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=nhem&url=../imgs/wv_nhem_anim.gif

Another friend who consults for meteorologists has a nice simple way of putting it, US centric because of the context:

"The mushroom form is actually a sort of vortex which is probably the most efficient energy dissipater know in Nature!  The picture also highlights the extraordinary warmth in both Atlantic and Pacific that is a major factor in setting up the jet stream pattern that we're seeing with abnormal cold over eastern North American and abnormal warmth out west."

That mushroom cloud over the North Atlantic (if that is the area you are referring to) reminds me of the way a pot of water boils as the heated water near the bottom of the pan rises.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #567 on: February 14, 2015, 08:21:30 PM »
With nothing entering from the north the current with a little wind assist is beggining to clear the south.  http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20150214T115204_99B4_N_1.jpg

Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #568 on: February 15, 2015, 08:11:25 AM »
The Kane animation.

crandles

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #569 on: February 15, 2015, 11:18:57 AM »
Will the question mark arch hold - that is the question.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #570 on: February 15, 2015, 12:45:47 PM »
Will the question mark arch hold - that is the question.

A close up from yesterday evening (UTC) via Polarview. So far so good?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #571 on: February 16, 2015, 08:12:37 AM »
Kennedy, ice is un-gluing at some places.

(click to animate)
« Last Edit: February 16, 2015, 08:33:02 AM by Wipneus »

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #572 on: February 16, 2015, 08:25:25 AM »
Kennedy moved a little with the latest wind, as did Lincoln, but I don't think it got as strong as forecast.  The Question Mark holds firm in Kane.  Nothing showing up for at least another week, giving plenty of time for more freezing, wind will actually be out of the south.  I think export at Nares is done for a while. 

Now Fram on the other hand is about to get a beating, might be time to give that thread a bump.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20150215s01a.ASAR.jpg

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20150214s01a.ASAR.jpg
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #573 on: February 16, 2015, 11:37:19 AM »
Taking a look at http://www.woksat.info/etcxb15/xb15-1203-e-grn-n.html I thought even if it clears it'll clog up in baffin, but http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/02/17/0900Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-24.75,76.36,2048  +24hr. gives the winds reversing so nothing[ice] will be coming down the strait and with the new moon almost upon us everything will get broken up by wind forced tides, the changed winds enhance clearance of baffin. So poised for breakout in 2-3 days.

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #574 on: February 17, 2015, 01:27:42 AM »
The tip of the Question Mark came loose, maybe it's not so stable.  Daylight will return to the area in about 2 weeks, how exciting.

The real action is over at Fram though.
http://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps/forecast/greenland#3/78.94/-28.30
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Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #575 on: February 17, 2015, 08:21:25 AM »
Not (yet) in the public archive or that of DMI, but in PolarView's: an asymmetric arch develops at the begin of Nares.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #576 on: February 17, 2015, 10:29:04 AM »
Are they breaking new ground here with Sentinel or in serving satellite data images -- what new ground would that be?

Distributing data seems like an afterthought; they're just now roughing out untested concepts for getting data to end users, with heavy dependence on beta testing by unpaid anonymous individuals outside the billion euro program -- yet what aspect could not have by debugged, tested with synthetic data, put on web in final form the day of the launch?

Excuse me, but this is the 6,601 satellite launched to date (3,600 remain in orbit, 1,000 operational). Surely these issues were all worked out by the late 1960's.

Arpanet was put out to bid in 1968. FTP internet servers date to 16 April 1971.

Photoshop was introduced in 1988, 27 years ago. Adobe released thirteen versions prior to the disastrous Oct 2003 introduction of Creative Suite branding. In February 2013 Adobe donated the source code of the 1990 1.0.1 version of Photoshop to the Computer History Museum.

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epiphyte

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #577 on: February 17, 2015, 07:07:29 PM »

Excuse me, but this is the 6,601 satellite launched to date (3,600 remain in orbit, 1,000 operational). Surely these issues were all worked out by the late 1960's.


I'm pretty sure that the network bandwidth, storage density and compute power required to ingest raw SAR sensor data across a big chunk of the planet and turn it onto pretty pictures did not exist anywhere outside of the three-letter gov't agencies until after the turn of the century.

Just for starters the raw data is downloaded over X-band/optical 520Mbit/s links, to a wide network of ground stations and (not yet) relay satellites. at a rate of 2.4 compressed TBytes /day.

Definitely not your grandpa's internet ;)

viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #578 on: February 17, 2015, 07:33:10 PM »
Excellent questions and answers, A–Team and epiphyte! Really brilliant and something to learn from. My cyberpunk Johnny Mnemonic follow–up question would be if none of these satellites can be said to 'fry' the ice with their radar and other beams of observation? In quantum physics the observer very physically impacts the observed object, so if the sats do not fry ice themselves, I'm sure it can be said that the industrial culture making sats possible does?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #579 on: February 18, 2015, 06:33:25 AM »
Arch in Kane:

(click to animate)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #580 on: February 18, 2015, 06:34:23 AM »
And in the Lincoln Sea:

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #581 on: February 18, 2015, 07:52:40 AM »
It looks to me that wind direction will be a major factor for this years melt.  I can't find very good overlaps on Polar View for the Fram area, but here is a look at what just 7 hours of wind did on the 15th to the northwest of Svalbard, the scenes shift over, but the larger cracks overlap.  I'll cross post this over in the Fram thread.
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nukefix

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #582 on: February 18, 2015, 08:07:56 AM »
Excellent questions and answers, A–Team and epiphyte! Really brilliant and something to learn from. My cyberpunk Johnny Mnemonic follow–up question would be if none of these satellites can be said to 'fry' the ice with their radar and other beams of observation?
The power of the radar is 4kW (about four times the power of a standard household microwave-oven) and the energy is spread over tens of square kilometers from an orbital height of 700km...

Wipneus

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #583 on: February 20, 2015, 07:32:12 AM »
No Sentinel images yet. The UH sea ice concentration animated map based on Jaxa's AMSR2 instrument seems to indicate the upper arch had a partial cave-in, but still holds.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #584 on: February 21, 2015, 07:23:11 AM »
Excellent questions and answers, A–Team and epiphyte! Really brilliant and something to learn from. My cyberpunk Johnny Mnemonic follow–up question would be if none of these satellites can be said to 'fry' the ice with their radar and other beams of observation?
The power of the radar is 4kW (about four times the power of a standard household microwave-oven) and the energy is spread over tens of square kilometers from an orbital height of 700km...

... In short, providing less heat to the ice than a house-hold infra-red space heater in Cleveland would provide to someone shivering in Boston if aimed in the right direction.
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viddaloo

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #585 on: February 21, 2015, 07:37:50 AM »
... In short, providing less heat to the ice than a house-hold infra-red space heater in Cleveland would provide to someone shivering in Boston if aimed in the right direction.

And as I said, in quantum physics the observer very physically impacts the observed object, so if the sats do not fry ice themselves, I'm sure it can be said that the industrial culture making sats possible does. In any case, the ice is toast.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #586 on: February 22, 2015, 08:37:54 AM »
Sequence centered on the Kennedy Channel. The upper arch is no more, ice is covering all open water.

(click to animate)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #587 on: February 23, 2015, 12:35:29 AM »
The upper arch is no more, ice is covering all open water.

Guys, I'm not too sure about this so–called Kane bridge either. I sure as hell wouldn't walk it. I'm waiting for a more recent Sentinel shot to post a comparison with this Feb 21 shot.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #588 on: February 23, 2015, 03:33:52 AM »
Comparing the 02-21 and 02-17 Sentinel images, a crack formed across the northernmost end of Kane Basin.  It appears the ice 'north' of the crack has moved generally northward about 1 km, leaving the Kane Basin ice 'frozen in place'.  Ice movement near the southern end of Kennedy Channel, however, wasn't just northward; some chunks have moved about despite it being an apparent frozen melange.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #589 on: February 23, 2015, 06:14:16 AM »
Sunrise at Hans Island.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #590 on: February 23, 2015, 08:06:22 AM »
Caving-in continues from the west...

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #591 on: February 24, 2015, 06:38:01 PM »
Supposed to have a brief spurt of 20+ knot winds later today and Wednesday, may see some action, but there's not much after that.  Fram wind direction continues to favor export.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #592 on: February 24, 2015, 09:27:47 PM »
Sunrise at Hans Island.

Whats the unit for the insolation?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #593 on: February 25, 2015, 02:32:33 AM »
Not exactly an ideal comparison, but it's what I got. What you can see is very little development over these 3 days: It's a solid ice bridge. I'd cross it to get free beer or a shipment of coffee.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #594 on: February 25, 2015, 03:48:21 PM »
Only some compacting movement in the upper half of the channel. Today it is 30-40 km/h winds all down the Nares Strait, according to earth.nullschool.net, that should be a first real test of the robustness of the current blockade.

(click to animate)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #595 on: February 25, 2015, 07:42:20 PM »
snapshot from woksat showing movement in the south
 
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 08:35:16 PM by johnm33 »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #596 on: February 26, 2015, 06:32:57 AM »
The arch in the Kane seems to be holding. With weaker winds today, it will likely to be there a bit longer.

(click the picture)

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #597 on: February 26, 2015, 10:00:46 PM »
The arch in the Kane seems to be holding. With weaker winds today, it will likely to be there a bit longer.

(click the picture)

The arch is growing southwards.
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #598 on: February 28, 2015, 09:38:24 PM »
Daylight images of Nares are almost here.  Anyone know whats going on with Sentinel and Polar View?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #599 on: March 01, 2015, 02:12:41 AM »
Daylight images of Nares are almost here.  Anyone know whats going on with Sentinel and Polar View?

No but here's a snapshot from woksat

which looks more recent than polarview and local conditions courtesy nullschool

That badly sprung arch looks like it's there to stay[?] but the rapidly forming ice in the south seems to break up and head south almost as soon as it freezes.