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Author Topic: The Nares Strait thread  (Read 426081 times)

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #650 on: June 21, 2015, 12:32:11 PM »
Courtesy DMI + Gimp, can't see this holding on much longer,


oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #651 on: June 21, 2015, 03:08:20 PM »
Last year the breakup of the arch began on June 20th or 21st. The year before it happened on July 3rd. In both years when cracks appeared it conincided with the arch beginning to collapse. So judging by recent history it's supposed to give in any day now.

A-Team

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #652 on: June 21, 2015, 07:01:04 PM »
Lower left corner does not look real solid ...
« Last Edit: June 21, 2015, 07:15:11 PM by A-Team »

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #653 on: June 21, 2015, 09:13:39 PM »
Latest Kane from DMI movement continues

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #654 on: June 22, 2015, 11:47:31 PM »
The ice in the bay has changed rain?

the cracks grow

I still have no idea when this breaks free a day? a week? a month?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #655 on: June 23, 2015, 02:42:56 AM »
I detect no movement of ice between the "Kane Basin Crack" and the edge of the Kane Basin ice bridge (comparing June 22 and June 20 Sentinel images - both are shown 'above').  I only see ice movement 'north' of the KBC.  On the June 22 image, I might be seeing a crack that is quozi-perpendicular to the KBC heading toward the ice bridge along the southern edge of the channel (along the 'obvious' texture change in the ice, and well away from the shore); I do not detect any lateral movement across this crack.

Interesting that in the June 21 Sentinel image, the KBC appears to have closed up.  (Obviously, it opened up again.) 
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #656 on: June 24, 2015, 01:10:04 AM »
Meanwhile further North:

http://1.usa.gov/1RuyUJa
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #657 on: June 24, 2015, 05:15:02 PM »
There's quite a lot of melt going on next to the bay http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
and some sort of water feature has appeared, whether melt, rain or a quickly frozen lead?


Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #658 on: June 26, 2015, 12:10:07 AM »
More movement:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #659 on: June 26, 2015, 11:13:04 AM »
This is the original

this the lightly gimped

it's hard not to see that evaporation/cloud formation taking place at the crack which indicates relatively warm waters surging south, lots of bottom melt allowing more compaction, cracks giving traction and a low soon to pass over. I don't think it'll [arch] last past 2nd july,  perhaps even the whole archipelago will open up.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #660 on: June 26, 2015, 04:59:38 PM »
I'm not sure that is  moisture as a result of this large lead but if it is, we are looking at low cloud or dense fog. This would be caused by warm air coming into contact with cold water.

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #661 on: June 26, 2015, 06:50:10 PM »
I'm not sure that is  moisture as a result of this large lead but if it is, we are looking at low cloud or dense fog. This would be caused by warm air coming into contact with cold water.
You're probably right i just checked and the winds were mostly blowing north.

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #662 on: July 01, 2015, 10:00:18 PM »
Full moon high tide, with lots of cracks, and strong winds to the north, and still no motion at the edge.
FNORD

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #663 on: July 01, 2015, 10:18:56 PM »
Comparing today's Sentinel image with the one from June 29 on DMI, I see what may be two new thin cracks much closer to the ice bridge than the 'obvious' crack that  crosses the basin diagonally.  The two cracks (if that is what they are) parallel the long dimension of the basin and are closer to the ice bridge than the 'obvious crack' and 'point' toward the thin end of the 'obvious crack'.

I would not be surprised if the bridge breaks in the next day or two.  Caveat: my predictions are lousy!
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solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #664 on: July 02, 2015, 01:28:33 AM »
I was dead set for the last new moon, glad I didn't say so.
FNORD

Sonia

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #665 on: July 02, 2015, 02:01:18 AM »
I've been watching the moon phases go by, but the wind has been so persistently from the south!  The wind reversed for two days last week.  I held my breath as the mobile ice all shifted south to press against the remaining fast ice, but it all held, both in the Kane and the Hall.  I'm not good with weather but it looks like this south wind will get rather stiff in about two days.  I'll be watching closely then.  Even if all all becomes mobile though it won't mean much for export as long as the wind stays from the south.  The export was interesting last year because the reduced pressure seemed to allow the Lincoln ice to become mobile.  Amazingly it's still sloshing around, but currently with nowhere to go.

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #666 on: July 02, 2015, 09:29:58 AM »
This sentinel shot from Dmi shows a significant break just south of the arch, some signs of movement on the Ellesmere coast and the change in the surface near Humbolt suggests melt which has allowed compaction and hence the crack further up.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #667 on: July 02, 2015, 10:02:31 AM »
This sentinel shot from Dmi shows a significant break just south of the arch, some signs of movement on the Ellesmere coast and the change in the surface near Humbolt suggests melt which has allowed compaction and hence the crack further up.


I missed that break near the arch at first glance. Seems like the beginning of the collapse process.

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #668 on: July 02, 2015, 01:47:37 PM »
The original http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/20150701TERR.jpg shows a crack of sorts along the coast/fast ice to the west, and extensive cracks elsewhere, my attempt to enhance

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #669 on: July 02, 2015, 04:54:00 PM »
A close-up of the crack you can readily see crossing most of Kane Basin is attached.  I think this is within the dark rectangle in johnm33's DMI image from earlier today.  See the fine crack that goes from the lower right corner to 2/3rds up the left side of the image.  This image is from July 1 Polar View imagery: specifically here.

The cracks I thought I saw yesterday that would be perpendicular to this new fine crack do not show up at all.  Was I wishful thinking?
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johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #670 on: July 02, 2015, 07:30:21 PM »

Couple of pieces adrift

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #671 on: July 03, 2015, 11:25:52 PM »
Another large piece of fast ice broke off south of the first piece


johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #672 on: July 04, 2015, 11:13:47 AM »

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #673 on: July 04, 2015, 01:04:24 PM »
I could swear that one was much clearer when I posted it... guess they updated the contents

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #674 on: July 04, 2015, 02:32:12 PM »
On the detailed Polar View from yeterday (here), I see some new [I believe] cracking near the Canadian side of Kane Basin not terribly far from the ice bridge [I don't call it an arch because it isn't center-of-the-building 'arch' shaped - it is sort of a flying buttress shaped arch, though.]  See attached.  The captured image shows some water [edit: or is that thin ice?] on the left, shore at the top, and cracks on the right.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2015, 03:30:40 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #675 on: July 04, 2015, 07:51:16 PM »
This is the original, http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/20150704s01a.ASAR.jpg and tweaked version. Some movement on the Greenland side.
 
these two are early and late shots from yesterday, judging by the shadows, if it's that sunny today I can't see it lasting much longer, but given my record best take a pinch of salt with that.


oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #676 on: July 06, 2015, 05:31:32 PM »
There's been another breakup of fast ice, this time on the oppsite site of the strait.
I can't believe the arch is still intact... it really should go soon  >:(


johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #677 on: July 06, 2015, 09:39:49 PM »
The top end is trashed

not nearly as beautiful [as Orens] but all the damage shows

and this shows the local melt on humbolt

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #678 on: July 07, 2015, 02:48:36 PM »
Either I'm 'seeing things' (that aren't there) or I'm seeing things (that are there).  Looking at two high resolution Polar View images here and especially here, both from July 6, 2015, I see several tiny cracks zigzagging across the bridge.  One is in the 'fast ice' near the Canadian shore. One nicks the southern end of the fast ice on the Canadian side of the bridge.  Others are part of a general breakup of the bridge.  The 2nd image is more recent and is very dark (and only covers a small part of the bridge on the Canadian side) and I can only 'see things' when looking at the screen from an angle (putting my face near the computer screen edge and looking askance), but it seems to show wider cracks.

Is today the day?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #679 on: July 07, 2015, 04:46:23 PM »
Yesterday's DMI composite view of Kane Basin shows a discrepancy in the bridge edge associated with an obvious seam between original images.  Is this offset due to movement between the time/date of the two images? (see johnm33's 2nd image above)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #680 on: July 07, 2015, 08:18:11 PM »
Comparing the July 4 and July 7 Sentinel images from DMI (by putting the two images in different windows and matching the position of land features), it appears the ice bridge is bulging a km or so in the middle of Kane Basin. 

(I cannot download the latest Polar View detail image.)

Also, most of the fast ice near the Greenland side of the ice arch has fallen off, but this wasn't structural.
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johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #681 on: July 07, 2015, 08:32:11 PM »
The latest Polar View

I'm thinking this break up of the top is caused by the tidal race this shows the relative speeds

I'm looking for a close up.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #682 on: July 07, 2015, 09:29:26 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #683 on: July 07, 2015, 11:16:44 PM »
I can thoroughly recommend a quick scan of the first few pages of this topic if like me your desperate for the breakthrough.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #684 on: July 08, 2015, 05:05:37 PM »
I could open the full resolution JPG Polar View image this morning.  A few of the cracks or groups of cracks are circled on the attached image of the Canadian side of the ice bridge (Elsmere Island on top, open water in lower left corner). Other fainter (probable) cracks are also discernible.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2015, 05:17:21 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Espen

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #685 on: July 08, 2015, 07:44:49 PM »
My unqualified guess:We are only hours away from the collapse of the Nares Arch.
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Andreas Muenchow

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #686 on: July 08, 2015, 10:30:17 PM »
I think it already collapsed several days ago, just a little slower than usually. The moment the shape changed, it did not have the structural integrity anymore to hold it together. The ice must be fairly mushy, too, given the very high surface air temperatures we saw the last couple of days on Hans Island.

Lets hope all this ice flushes out at a faster clip as it does right now. The Swedish icebreaker Oden is on her way to pick up a group of people at Thule Air Force Base on July-29 to sail on for a large experiment this year focused on the glacial and geological history of Petermann Fjord and Glacier as well as Nares Strait. I feel very lucky indeed to be given the opportunity to be on the ship.

There will be a flurry of activities in Nares Strait and Petermann Fjord this summer with massive amounts of new data from below the surface, invisible to remote sensing. Lots of outreach and sharing planned by multiple people at multiple institutions in multiple countries working on multiple ships.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #687 on: July 08, 2015, 11:09:34 PM »
Lots of outreach and sharing planned by multiple people at multiple institutions in multiple countries working on multiple ships.

Excellent news Andreas! Thanks for the heads up.
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A-Team

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #688 on: July 09, 2015, 06:30:34 PM »
That's great news. Andreas ... were you not slated to look at ocean/shelf interactions at 79N or is that a leg of this expedition? From the many publications of the PIs, it sounds like formanifera-based Holocene water temperatures, seismic profiles, underwater moraines coring, maybe keel drags.

Right now, the Oden is going nowhere fast according to this tracking service ... are they waiting to see if Nares will clear out better? Petermann fjord is still in the early stages of clearing to the rifting front. The ship is rated for 2 m thick ice.

The Renland ice cap expedition, completed to bedrock in just 4 weeks, did a most excellent job of daily blogging. I think the answer is having a PI do the write-up, not a summer intern back in the office.

It's worth looking at how and what they provided, even some real-time logging data like ECM profiles. Renland is the first non-brittle Holocene core for Greenland. It is said to be a proxy for ice discharge down the Fram.

Very informative: http://recap.nbi.ku.dk/field_diaries/2015/

Here is a very detailed account of how Jason Box landed in hot water over a comment made on a previous Oden voyage. (Denmark is also the home of the notorious denier Bjorn Lomborg.)

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a36228/ballad-of-the-sad-climatologists-0815/


Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #689 on: July 09, 2015, 06:58:45 PM »
Greenland side of ice bridge giving way (see attached image - part of Polar View's JPG full resolution)(Greenland [with bluish 'mask'] at bottom of image, open water at left)

[Question: can anyone tell me how to have attachments show?]
« Last Edit: July 09, 2015, 07:05:19 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Neven

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #690 on: July 09, 2015, 07:01:12 PM »
Greenland side of ice bridge giving way (see attached image - part of Polar View'sJPG full resolution)(Greenland [with bluish 'mask'] at bottom of image, open water at left)

[Question: can anyone tell me how to have attachments show?]

Tor, I think the problem is that it's a PDF file.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #691 on: July 09, 2015, 07:11:37 PM »
Greenland side of ice bridge giving way (see attached image - part of Polar View's JPG full resolution)(Greenland [with bluish 'mask'] at bottom of image, open water at left) ...
Attached JPG is same as previous PDF. (Thanks, Neven;  now I know how to have an attachment show.)
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A-Team

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #692 on: July 09, 2015, 08:14:26 PM »
Here is a composite of two PolarView Sentinels for today, 9th July T=123226, mostly from S1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20150709T123226_9D1C_N_1.

Andreas Muenchow

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #693 on: July 09, 2015, 08:28:55 PM »
The Renland ice cap expedition, completed to bedrock in just 4 weeks, did a most excellent job of daily blogging. I think the answer is having a PI do the write-up, not a summer intern back in the office.

It's worth looking at how and what they provided, even some real-time logging data like ECM profiles. Renland is the first non-brittle Holocene core for Greenland. It is said to be a proxy for ice discharge down the Fram.

Very informative: http://recap.nbi.ku.dk/field_diaries/2015/
I could not agree more, but at $50K/day and 21 hours/day awake, should the PI focus on efficient use of the ship to support science or should s/he spent time blogging? The above site is very well done indeed ... I suspect we may be more chaotic in our presentations, as we are diverse group in disciplinary background, gender, age, culture, politics, style, and personal temperaments. Also, at 81 N we do not have the same connectivity that people farther south have. Iridium is charged by the second ... Think 1984-type dial-up modems at 1200 baud. Resources are always finite and the budget always shows where your priorities are. Compromise and balance are much harder in practice than in theory ;-)

As for the ice in Nares Strait, yes, I'd like it to be out of the way. The last thing an icebreaker wants to do is breaking ice. It is slow, gobbles fuel like crazy, and takes valuable resources away from science or, as we oceanographer call it, "wire time." It is always smarter to work with nature, not against it. Winds, tides, and currents are somewhat predictable and often the longer way is faster and more productive. Furthermore, multiple disciplines working together becomes a strength: one group's signal is another group's noise and vice versa.
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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #694 on: July 09, 2015, 11:19:24 PM »
Greenland side of ice bridge giving way (see attached image - part of Polar View's JPG full resolution)(Greenland [with bluish 'mask'] at bottom of image, open water at left)

Yes, I believe the ice bridge has finally given up. The whole thing moved forward a little bit, leaving that big crack behind. This is a later date than the past few years, probably correlated to the ice in Baffin staying much longer this year.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #695 on: July 09, 2015, 11:59:40 PM »
When early Hudson Bay melt put 2015 ahead of most (all?) other years, I recall someone (somewhere) wonder if extra early snow protected the ice from the grueling cold eastern North America experienced last NH winter.  I don't know what caused the early start, but I suspect there wasn't 'extra early snow' and that most of Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay were actually thicker than typical (compared to recent years), and the consequent extra ice is what has delayed their mid-season melt-out.  This may have also caused the Kane Basin ice bridge to be thicker and therefore more resilient.  I wonder if the ice bridge being across the 'middle' of Kane Basin (rather than across Smith Sound) means that water flowing under it is slower and less abrasive?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #696 on: July 10, 2015, 08:59:05 AM »
When early Hudson Bay melt put 2015 ahead of most (all?) other years, I recall someone (somewhere) wonder if extra early snow protected the ice from the grueling cold eastern North America experienced last NH winter.

I think that was me. I was surprised that Hudson Bay was melting so fast, given the megacold during winter in the NE USA, and speculated that massive snow might have insulated the ice, and during the first 'heat wave' this snow turned into melt ponds causing the fragile ice below to quickly disintegrate. But it seems it was the wind?

On-topic: Nares arch finally giving way, eh?
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johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #697 on: July 10, 2015, 09:39:29 AM »
This'll do it

added

It looks like solid ice by Humbolt to me, I'm guessing that'll need a nudge or the tides of the approaching new moon to shift it.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2015, 10:31:57 AM by johnm33 »

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #698 on: July 10, 2015, 10:38:40 AM »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #699 on: July 11, 2015, 03:03:14 AM »
Somebody already called it this but that ice bridge is a flying buttress and all of the stress is where that buttress comes into contact with the coast of Greenland. I think we need to look there for the approaching collapse.