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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #850 on: July 08, 2016, 12:30:52 AM »
IMHO Big plug is a goner and a good part of the Basin (where the crushed ice is) should be flushed in a few days.

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #851 on: July 08, 2016, 09:23:15 PM »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #852 on: July 08, 2016, 10:15:31 PM »
or not hardly going yet  :D
(Attached image from LANCE MODIS
We have something for everyone!  ::)
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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #853 on: July 09, 2016, 12:43:22 AM »
Interesting that as soon as Big Plug started to move, most of Kane Basin and the whole Kennedy Channel started to move with it. What seemed like good ice a few days ago was just waiting for the call.

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #854 on: July 09, 2016, 01:11:25 AM »
I wonder if the hold-up is the pressure from Petermann, if that's the case, should be interesting when it breaks.

A-Team

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #855 on: July 10, 2016, 09:16:40 PM »
Quote
effect on Petermann?
Back pressure might facilitate FYI/melange breakup. However the floating ice shelf will not be affected, nor will the glacier speed up measurably as a consequence (even using fixed differential GPS or the new S1AB interferometry capacity).

Indeed, loss of the entire ice shelf will have minimal effect on glacial discharge as it has been calculated to provide little buttressing -- which could have been anticipated from the lack of firm engagement with the rock walls.

It would be timely though to check if shelf crevasses have extended in recent months, best done with a Sentinel 2A matched pair. Enormous tabular bergs are newsworthy though in this instance they don't have the significance of those in Antarctica as Petermann is only a partial proxy for the floating ice shelves there.

Just a cross-posted animation of the last 4 days from the Nares poll forum:
« Last Edit: July 10, 2016, 09:31:52 PM by A-Team »

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #856 on: July 10, 2016, 10:53:55 PM »
Quote
effect on Petermann?

I believe John's meaning was the possible effect of Petermann on the sea ice, not vice versa. More specifically on the side pressure from Petermann causing a block or slowdown in the middle of Nares.

The animation kind of answers that, that area is not blocked, though perhaps slowed down.

Edit: never mind, read your reply in the flushing poll thread.

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #857 on: July 11, 2016, 12:39:30 AM »
"The animation kind of answers that" absolutely. Not that it couldn't all seize up for a few days either by Petermann or at the exit to Kane basin, I doubt it but we'll see.

oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #858 on: July 17, 2016, 10:01:04 AM »
The whole Kane Basin is rushing to the exit to bathe in some hot water, except for some static ice on the Greenland side. The Kennedy Channel is already cleared.

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #859 on: July 18, 2016, 10:14:11 AM »
Curious wave like feature on this image

polar view has it on this http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/201607/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SSH_20160717T202512_C28B_N_1.jpg which gives the time so close to high tide, is it possible thats some type of tidal bore? get a better look http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/20160717s01a.ASAR.jpg

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #860 on: July 18, 2016, 05:52:52 PM »
It's the result of stitching together different images.
Curious wave like feature on this image
FNORD

Cate

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #861 on: July 19, 2016, 12:08:53 AM »
MAP REFERENCE
JOHN RICHARDSON  BAY on Ellesmere, just SW of Petermann
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A//4-N90-E0

EDIT: Thanks to Tor Bejnar for help in pointing me to Espen's map of Ellesmere place names.

The area I'm looking at is John Richardson Bay on the Ellesmere side of Nares, between Cape Collinson to the south and Cape Wilkes to the north. If you toggle 17-18 July, it looks like a big chunk of ice breaks off the northern corner of the tongue of ice in the bay.

Can someone please confirm if that is what I am looking at there?

As for what the chunk is----the same area in September 2015 was dark blue water, so I would conclude that this chunk is shore-fast new or first year ice  in the bay. I wonder how thick it might be.

EDIT: Here is the permalink. John Richardson Bay is the middle fjord of the three on the Ellesmere side of the strait.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2016-07-18/9-N80.30822-W67.93778
« Last Edit: July 19, 2016, 11:09:22 AM by Cate »

Iceismylife

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #862 on: July 19, 2016, 03:45:12 AM »
Good spotting.  Nice link too.

Cate

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #863 on: July 19, 2016, 03:51:20 AM »
Good spotting.  Nice link too.

Thanks. :)  Just added the permalink, which was what I meant to post. I also need to learn how to post the image with a circle drawn around the area of interest.

Alistair

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #864 on: July 19, 2016, 05:46:34 AM »
What this also nicely shows up is the breaking up of the ice in front of Petermann between 17th and 18th (Was whole yesterday!)

Cate

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #865 on: July 19, 2016, 11:14:46 AM »
What this also nicely shows up is the breaking up of the ice in front of Petermann between 17th and 18th (Was whole yesterday!)

Yes, big crack right across the fjord in a day. Pretty amazing, how fast it opens up.

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #866 on: July 19, 2016, 04:24:16 PM »
Solartim27"it's the result of stitching"
No, the feature is not aligned with the obvious frames

also in close up it clearly curves

my guess is that there's a subsurface wave of warmer southern water being forced north, and the whitening is the spume generated by turbulence, making the surface far more reflective to radar. I can't find any trace of it on daylight images. If there was enough water driven north it should show up as warmer on nullschool when their sst's are updated.

solartim27

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #867 on: July 19, 2016, 05:42:48 PM »
my guess is that there's a subsurface wave of warmer southern water being forced north, and the whitening is the spume generated by turbulence, making the surface far more reflective to radar. I can't find any trace of it on daylight images. If there was enough water driven north it should show up as warmer on nullschool when their sst's are updated.
And the explanation for this is?
http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/201607/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20160717T121804_BF09_N_1.jpg
FNORD

Iceismylife

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #868 on: July 19, 2016, 06:18:20 PM »
...
As for what the chunk is----the same area in September 2015 was dark blue water, so I would conclude that this chunk is shore-fast new or first year ice  in the bay. I wonder how thick it might be.

...
I looked through the freeze up and it looks to have been new ice not incorporating ice drifting in from somewhere else.  I don't know how thick it is.

Cate

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #869 on: July 20, 2016, 12:48:28 AM »
...
As for what the chunk is----the same area in September 2015 was dark blue water, so I would conclude that this chunk is shore-fast new or first year ice  in the bay. I wonder how thick it might be.

...
I looked through the freeze up and it looks to have been new ice not incorporating ice drifting in from somewhere else.  I don't know how thick it is.

Just looking at today---there are clouds, but it looks like another big chunk of shore-fast has gone out of John Richardson Bay into the strait. And Petermann fjord is really clearing out now too.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2016-07-19/9-N80.56333-W67.60169

plinius

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #870 on: July 27, 2016, 01:12:58 AM »
Am I correct that the Nares is flushing, but no ice reaches Baffin Bay due to the high water temperatures (depending on how one defines Smith sound and Baffin)?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #871 on: August 27, 2016, 03:41:18 PM »
I believe you are correct, but strong winds may move some ice that overwintered in Lincoln Sea into Baffin Bay soon.  I've been watching this on the Nares Strait Flushing Poll thread.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #872 on: August 27, 2016, 03:57:02 PM »
According to the HYCOM model, some really thick sea ice will move into the Lincoln Sea over the next several days (September 3 forecast copied below).  The Lincoln Sea does occasionally get filled with 5m ice (April 2014, for example).

I'm guessing the actual floes are small enough so that they will flush all the way through Nares Strait.  Who knows: this may be the first Arctic ice to make it!

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johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #873 on: September 18, 2016, 11:37:10 PM »
This just has to be here too, from A-Team 4839 on melt season.

In Nares when the southern waters are forced north by the tides, they 'turn right' and hug the Greenland coast accelerating melt at Humbolt and Peterman, sometimes forcing through to Lincoln. Conversely when the tidal flow is south the arctic waters flow down Ellesmeres coast as illustrated by A-Teams excellent animation. To get a fuller picture, given that these animations are based on one shot per day and can barely hint at the tides, it's worth spending a little time looking through the various products here http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/
Compare this to A-Teams animation, this just shows the settings the permalink doesn't animate, it's from the first product in the catalogue. Animation wizard bottom left.
http://cmems-view.cls.fr/ViewService/?permalinking=true&bgmap=Blue%20Marble%20North%20Polar&dataset=http://nrtcmems.mercator-ocean.fr/thredds/wms/global-analysis-forecast-phys-001-002&numColorBands=20&logScale=false&bbox=226464.84375,1169042.96875,3637109.375,3649511.71875&abovemaxcolor=0x000000&belowmincolor=0x000000&nodatacolor=null&layer=v&time=2016-09-19T12%253A00%253A00.000Z&palette=rainbow&style=boxfill&scaleRange=-0.98330635,0.4992828&displayScaleRange=-0.98330635,0.4992828&opacity=1&record_id=ceec7b06-49e3-4c13-bfdb-1cc8d4dc423d&dataset_id=daily%20mean%20fields%20from%20Global%20Ocean%20Physics%20Analysis%20and%20Forecast%20updated%20Daily
and something completely different https://www.the-saleroom.com/en-gb/auction-catalogues/david-lay-f-r-i-c-s/catalogue-id-srdavid10044/lot-de682db3-1a16-43dd-b81e-a6750124ba2d
« Last Edit: September 21, 2016, 10:26:34 AM by johnm33 »

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #874 on: September 23, 2016, 10:41:52 AM »
Last chance folks these are under the hammer.
"A set of 42 magic lantern slides of photographs taken by Thomas Mitchell & George White during the British Arctic Expedition 1875-1876. Produced by The London Stereoscopic Company (Optical Department) 110 & 108 Regent St. and 54 & 53 Cheapside, London. Each slide: 8.7cm x 8.7cm. Each image: 6cm x 6.7cm. Each slide hand numbered 1-42, labelled COPYRIGHT and with a white London Stereoscopic Company label. Images include many shots of HMS Discovery & HMS Alert in amongst ice floes, several native Inuit groups, on board the expedition vessels and in the settlement of Godhaven, including one of Hans Hendrik the native 'Esquimaux' dog driver employed by the 'Discovery' with his daughter and son on the upper deck of 'Discovery'. Also group portraits of expedition members, arctic views and landscapes, sledging parties and encampments. (See back cover illustration) Organised by the British Admiralty and led by Captain George Strong Nares, the expedition was commissioned as a voyage of scientific discovery and general exploration, with its major aim being the conquest of the North Pole. HMS Alert and HMS Discovery set sail from Portsmouth on May 29th 1875. The expedition failed to reach the North Pole yet significant scientific data was gathered, a farthest north was reached and a considerable portion of the north Greenland coast was mapped. However, four men were lost to frost bite and scurvy and although the initial welcome home was warm, the British press turned on Nares, branding the expedition a total failure and demanding answers for the loss of life. Although Nares was not to blame, (lime juice provided by the admiralty for the prevention of scurvy had been boiled into concentrate, thereby destroying the vitamin C) the vilification he suffered and the expedition as a whole, has meant that it has largely slipped into obscurity. Fortunately for us, Nares requested photographers for the expedition and George White, Assistant Engineer for Alert and Thomas Mitchell, Paymaster for Discovery were trained at the Army School of Photography in Chatham in the latest photographic processes. These two men took some of the earliest photographic images of polar exploration that set a precedent in the field of photography followed by later professionals like Herbert Ponting and Frank Hurley in recording the activities, achievements and polar landscapes for a wider audience at home. These fascinating early Arctic images were probably produced for lecture purposes and show us in excellent quality all manner of expedition details such as clothing, equipment, the parties' involved as well as some remarkable images of the indigenous Greenlanders. Condition report: Very good condition."
Link in previous post.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #875 on: November 08, 2016, 07:45:39 PM »
Ice is forming in Nares Strait between the flowing floes, and gets broken up and carried down stream, just like in previous years at this time of year. DMI's Sentinel images show floes continue to be on the move from the Arctic just above Lincoln Sea all the way to Baffin Bay.  No floes appear to be large enough to get stuck anywhere, so continued ice export is probable.
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Tigertown

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #876 on: November 09, 2016, 03:46:32 AM »
Colors play tricks on my eyes, but is that not the thick MYI  that you are talking about flushing through?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #877 on: November 28, 2016, 09:36:30 PM »
A big floe is entering Nares Strait (vaguely outlined).  It appears to be breaking up as it approaches.  I doubt it will get stuck.  Image from DMI Sentinel-1.

Most of the Lincoln Sea continues to drain into Nares Strait.
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be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #878 on: November 28, 2016, 11:20:20 PM »
Glad you posted Tor .. I have been watching Nares and Fram with the DMI . Can you or anyone direct me to other satellite images other than coastal Greenland ?

thanks in advance .. b.c.
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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #879 on: November 29, 2016, 06:17:41 AM »
Glad you posted Tor .. I have been watching Nares and Fram with the DMI . Can you or anyone direct me to other satellite images other than coastal Greenland ?

thanks in advance .. b.c.
I am not an expert on the subject, but I think this should help you
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/

johnm33

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #880 on: November 29, 2016, 03:11:08 PM »
"I am not an expert on the subject, but I think this should help you
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/"
or
http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

charles_oil

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #881 on: December 01, 2016, 10:19:23 PM »
Tor - many thanks for the above - I tried following the "Nares plug" on Sentinel-1 - it looks like its broken in half, entered the Nares straight, then withdrawn again !

The Nares plug is easier to see on:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php,

If someone could animate it... it would look great with the ebb and flow from 27th to 1st Dec!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #882 on: December 05, 2016, 08:08:03 PM »
That big floe at the Lincoln Sea/Robeson Channel demarcation (link for place names) has certainly been dancing around these past several days!  I note a distinctive small floe in Hall Basin (off Petermann Glacier) has been dancing around as well.  Floes in Kane Basin are generally going southward (technically southwestward).

Floes are not moving very fast, and some days they hardly move at all.  The whole thing could just stop any day, especially if there are a couple of hardly-any-movement days (like Dec. 4 was in both Kane Basin and Robeson Channel).

I've not learned how to make a movie, but I open several DMI Sentinel images using the Ctrl key so that the different days open in separate tabs (rather than windows).  Clicking on subsequent images shows movement.  At times, I've placed a ruler on my computer screen to calculate how far floes moved.  (Petermann Glacier is 15 km wide, for a scale guide. [Conveniently, on my screen it is 15 mm wide!])
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #883 on: December 06, 2016, 05:02:54 PM »
The big floe is fully within Robeson Channel today, per Polar View image.
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be cause

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #884 on: December 10, 2016, 01:11:12 AM »
The big floe is fully within Robeson Channel today, per Polar View image.
and has moved quickly south the last few days . An even bigger floe is approaching the entrance . Will it break up and enter the straight or is there still ice that can plug the Nares ?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #885 on: December 11, 2016, 05:46:12 AM »
Boy is it moving!   On the 8th the 'big floe' was opposite Petermann Glacier and today's image shows it is about to enter Kane Basin.  It split in two since the 8th, as well (attached image).

(Up north, the 'even bigger floe' is definitely approaching the Strait.) 
And according to windtv, the wind is mostly from the north along Nares Strait and will generally be stronger (and from the north) over the next week.
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #886 on: December 11, 2016, 06:13:04 AM »
(Up north, the 'even bigger floe' is definitely approaching the Strait.)

It won't last long.  In the image, green shows my take on the true current outline and blue shows where I think it will fracture soon.  The grey line is an artifact.

Original image source:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #887 on: December 11, 2016, 08:29:29 AM »
Could we have another 2009 with no ice bridge forming?


Terry

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #888 on: December 11, 2016, 07:41:33 PM »
Actually, it appears to have split length-wise. 2/3 of it has proceeded down Nares, with 1/3 blocking the gap.
 
Looking at the recent Lincoln photos at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php and in particular http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/20161211s01a.ASAR.jpg shows a polynya of about 100km x 100km which has ice breaking off and flowing down the Nares. The bridge is already fractured length-wise, so it doesn't look like it will hold this flow.

Looking back through the Sentinel images shows this polynya starting to open on the 7th of December.

Edit: I've found a reference  here which describes this polynya as a standard feature. This references a paper by Kozo, 1991 (preview here), describing this polynya with a solid arch from Greenland to Ellesmere island, with an opening forming at the top of Nares. He says that the sea ice transport normally stops by January, so this pattern appears to be fairly normal - at the moment.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2016, 08:51:44 AM by bairgon »

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #889 on: December 28, 2016, 06:48:26 PM »
Nares is in full flow .. rate of passage today @ 7 days N to S . Rubble in .. mush out .
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #890 on: January 01, 2017, 05:21:15 AM »
DMI's Lincoln Sea Sentinel images of 30-12-2016 and 31-12-16 show ice being drawn north out of the top of Nares Strait! And not much movement in most of Nares' length.  Windytv.com shows the winds today and yesterday (last two days of 2016) were from the South in the region, but will change to being from the North tomorrow (first day of 2017).
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #891 on: January 10, 2017, 06:20:57 PM »
Ice started flowing south again after about the 8th of Jan, once winds turned to the north. They look set to continue from the north for a while.

However, there is now a large floe which looks like it might block the mouth of the strait. The lead on the south-west has formed as it has blocked movement. However, there does appear to be a crack lengthwise which might cause complete breakup of the floe.


Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #892 on: January 10, 2017, 10:30:03 PM »
Given the composite nature of, and cracks across, this large floe, I expect it will break or shatter upon being appropriately stressed and predict it will therefore not block Nares Strait.  (But my predictions are infamous!)
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oren

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #893 on: January 10, 2017, 11:45:01 PM »
The Arctic is throwing its best MYI reserves into the battle - that's a huge floe. I agree that it's expected to break up. Normally Nares should be holding on to its open state until February, and the Northern arch typically forms back in the Lincoln Sea and not right at the opening.

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #894 on: January 11, 2017, 02:43:53 PM »
Need a stronger floe.

DrTskoul

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #895 on: January 11, 2017, 03:33:48 PM »
Don't see any around.... :o
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #896 on: January 11, 2017, 04:11:57 PM »
Should we again run into fragmentation events across the basin will a Lincoln Sea still draining into Nares give 'wiggle room' for any movement of the fractured pack?
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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #897 on: January 12, 2017, 04:27:46 AM »
That floe is quite visibly made up of small MYI floes stitched together with FYI. It fractured easily from just the accelerating currents entering into Nares which can be seen by how the leading portion split and accelerated away from the trailing portion. I see absolutely no ice in that entire frame that is any different. There are simply no large MYI floes anywhere. I also see no evidence of an arch forming anywhere.

bairgon

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #898 on: January 12, 2017, 05:59:40 PM »
I agree, I don't hold out much hope for a blockage there.

Having said that, the half that split off has now travelled about 10kms down Nares, but the other half has hardly moved, apart from appearing to get more firmly wedged. See http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20170112s01a.ASAR.jpg

The impending GAC will probably break this up, particularly as the wind is due to blow up the strait again starting on the 17th - see https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/17/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-51.72,82.27,1106/loc=-62.614,81.468

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Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #899 on: January 14, 2017, 08:25:57 AM »
Breaking further, as needed.