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meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3750 on: August 13, 2017, 02:39:22 PM »

But seems in a few days the observed line has to continue horizontally until september 20?

Highly unlikely. We' re still very far away. I guess bottom melt will continue well into October.

Sterks

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3751 on: August 13, 2017, 02:47:25 PM »
AMSR2 area-wise, this year is already almost below the 2013/14 minima per the graphs that Wipneus updates at the OP of the Home brew thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.0.html

And this was a "cold-surface" year.  Admittedly, this area das not reflect the lack of surface ponds as much, but we can discard by now the notion that this was a rebound year. It was not because of the thin FYI out of the weakest winter as others point out, which allowed first expanses of ocean to open up early enough and trap heat, and because even moderate cyclonic weather is very unfriendly to thin ice (and as thin as it was that it may have been catching the necessary radiation through it as explained by Rob Dekker in the buoys thread).
There has been a near balance between cold weather and thinness of the ice in this season. Still a month or more of bottom melt, we just have to wait how much ice is below the threshold of survival

Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3752 on: August 13, 2017, 03:55:45 PM »
Yes Sebastian, it's odd, isn't it? Also, a polynya appeared in the same location in 2012 and 2013. Must be a current.

I suspect its upwelling along one of the ridges. Ice concentration plots can look pretty similar to bathymetry at this time of year. While I think pumping by cyclones is generally over-rated here, the presence of a ridge or shelf edge does magnify it greatly.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3753 on: August 13, 2017, 04:34:45 PM »
The North Pole itself is cloud covered today, but it's starting to look as though Pen Hadow's mission to sail there this summer isn't entirely fanciful:

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Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3754 on: August 13, 2017, 05:08:41 PM »
The North Pole itself is cloud covered today, but it's starting to look as though Pen Hadow's mission to sail there this summer isn't entirely fanciful:

That looks entirely typical for the time of year, so sailing to the Pole seems wildly fanciful.

Here's 2013.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3755 on: August 13, 2017, 05:12:01 PM »
Watching this years season I am reminded that the August/Sept months become a race against the dropping of both the sun and the temperatures.

This, is not looking like anything other than positioning for significantly more melt.



Whether it does nor not will be down to how the weather events unfold in the next 3 - 4 weeks.

Either way it just keeps on driving down below where it should be for the input.
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3756 on: August 13, 2017, 05:17:07 PM »
Record breaking heat wave over the NWT/Nunavut/CAA will be tapped into after D2 and is forecast to be advected wholesale over the CAB from the NA side as a cyclone sets up over the open waters of the Chukchi and a strong ridge builds over the CAA. Strong winds and strong warm advection over several days should effectively vaporize the remaining arm of ice into the Beaufort sector and widen the Pacific bite. The EC and GFS ensembles set up a hot +DA pattern after D5 with deep southerly flow off the continent into the CAB.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3757 on: August 13, 2017, 05:24:41 PM »

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3758 on: August 13, 2017, 05:29:28 PM »
The North Pole itself is cloud covered today, but it's starting to look as though Pen Hadow's mission to sail there this summer isn't entirely fanciful:



If conditions allow then the other "Snow Dragon" might get there first this year.  :)

She was at around 85 degrees North at last check.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3759 on: August 13, 2017, 05:56:53 PM »
Persistent cyclonic motion associated with a strongly positive Arctic oscillation from the late '80s to the early '90s caused the "Retreat of the cold halocline layer in the Arctic Ocean".
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/98JC00580/pdf
Clearly, the halocline is not an issue in the shallow Siberian shelf waters.

Note that the breakdown of the halocline in the open ocean north of the Siberian shelf reported in the paper was observed in the winter months when cold stormy conditions would maximize convection in water the above the Atlantic water layer. The addition of large amounts of fresh water via Siberian rivers in the summer months dampens convection as does the melting of sea ice because the fresh water tends to float on top of the denser, more saline ocean water.

There are serious questions about what's happening to the halocline after the stormy Arctic weather we've seen over the past 2 years but no one here has shown me the data needed to map its possible recent retreat. I have seen evidence of the movement and reduction of volume of the dome fresh water in the Beaufort sea over the past year. Likewise, I have seen evidence of reduced Atlantic water layer upwelling on Alaska's north slope.  Strong upwelling takes place when the Beaufort high is strong, but this year it has been pretty weak.

What's really impressive this summer, as far as I can tell, is the inflow of warm Pacific surface water into the Alaska coastal current. The  record early melting of the Chukchi sea has been a huge source of heat for late summer melt when the storm winds pushed ice over the warm waters. So we're seeing a very different melt pattern on the Alaskan side of the Arctic this year. It's going to take Arctic oceanographers and cruise data to work out the scientific details. The themocline looks very different on the Alaskan side of the Arctic ocean.

 The possibility that we have been seeing warm core storms over the open waters north of Alaska has profound implications for Arctic weather in the summer and fall months as the Arctic continues to warm. The GAC may be a preview of greater storms to come in future decades.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3760 on: August 13, 2017, 06:24:14 PM »
Here's 2013.


Sébastian Roubinet didn't have much luck attempting a similar feat in 2013. Pen's fleet consists of two rather different craft though:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3761 on: August 13, 2017, 06:26:32 PM »
If conditions allow then the other "Snow Dragon" might get there first this year.  :)

Xue Long is an icebreaker however. In that class of vessels 50 Let Pobedy has been to the Pole already this year.
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Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3762 on: August 13, 2017, 06:38:54 PM »
Entirely typical for the last 10 years, except for thickness. Very different to the years before that.
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Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3763 on: August 13, 2017, 07:26:16 PM »


Thanks Csnavywx, looks like a scorcher in the CAA.
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Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3764 on: August 13, 2017, 07:27:03 PM »
If conditions allow then the other "Snow Dragon" might get there first this year.  :)

Xue Long is an icebreaker however. In that class of vessels 50 Let Pobedy has been to the Pole already this year.

True but the Russian nuclear powered vessel can go through 5 metre ice. Xue Long is only rated for just over one metre and very slowly.  She got very close to the pole 7 years ago so the record "first" for a Chinese vessel is still there to be grasped and in itself would confirm the weakness of the ice this year  in the CAA.

In any event you she could also join a select list of ships that have been trapped by the ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic. :)

Pi26

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3765 on: August 13, 2017, 08:14:33 PM »
Much ice north of FJL and Svalbard seems doomed.

Worldview images from today.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2017, 09:44:59 PM by Pi26 »

Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3766 on: August 13, 2017, 08:28:58 PM »
Seems that volume loss north of Svalbard and FJL was significant this season or there was less ice than PIOMAS and Hycom have modelled. Would be interesting when Cryosat first measurements start

Pi26

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3767 on: August 13, 2017, 08:44:45 PM »
Image from the cyclon (< 980 hPa) east of Greenland near Svalbard.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3768 on: August 13, 2017, 09:03:28 PM »
NHEM snow season about to kick into gear way earlier than normal, substantial falls expected to begin across portions of southern Russia by D10, wonder how things look by 9/10...


Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3769 on: August 13, 2017, 09:16:39 PM »
OT for this thread. 

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3770 on: August 13, 2017, 10:20:13 PM »
OT for this thread.
It is kind of hard to say anymore. After the effect last year's snowfall had.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3771 on: August 13, 2017, 10:33:08 PM »
OT for this thread.

I agree it's off-topic. It doesn't have anything to do with this melting season per se, but rather with a possible long-term story about negative feedbacks etc. I'm sure there's another thread to discuss this.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3772 on: August 13, 2017, 10:48:36 PM »
Ok. Had to look for, since it has been a while, but here it is.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1932.50.html#lastPost

A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3773 on: August 14, 2017, 12:53:44 AM »
Csnavywx, looks like a scorcher in the CAA
Here is an updated forecast for total melt the next five days from that ambitious new experimental site mentioned earlier. Note the Bering Strait is at the bottom and the projection goes up only a bit beyond the pole.

This site also has some welcome depictions of snow depth but not for an extensive period. In reality there is close to zero observational on snow depths on the Arctic Ocean itself, just endless hand-waving on the forums (based on faraway land stations!#?%!). Snow-on-ice over time becomes very complicated in vertical cores, as discussed in the N-ICE2015 papers.

In my view, regardless of how this season turns out, it will prove very difficult to perform a convincing post-mortem. The data is just not there for a lot of the daily variables.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/amy.solomon/seaice.html
« Last Edit: August 14, 2017, 01:43:50 AM by A-Team »

pearscot

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3774 on: August 14, 2017, 04:59:05 AM »
That melt graphic is fantastic, thanks for posting that. I feel safe in saying that I do not foresee this year ranking as the lowest, but when I look at the state of the ice it's hard for me to know what to make of it.  It just seems so thin, mobile, and fragile.  I've been reading the updates posted here everyday, but is that the general consensus with the experts here?  I will say, at the start of the melting season, i thought we were going to see unprecedented melting, but at the same time, it seems as though the ice simply cannot recover.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3775 on: August 14, 2017, 08:01:53 AM »
Pearscot, my take is that the ice is weak, but not so weak yet that breaking records doesn't depend on the weather. Also, the ice may not have been as thin as some models (esp. PIOMAS) predicted, due to the unprecedented weather last winter pushing the model in untested ways. Nevertheless, despite the slow start this season due to deep snow, and despite fairly nice ice-preserving weather, we may be heading for 2nd or even 1st (worst) place in different metrics.

Speaking of which, today's Bremen map (attached, last-under-90 filter) shows that: extent near the Beaufort has not stopped dropping, area in the central pack has recovered a bit after yesterdays big drop (probably noise in both directions), and the ice near Svalbard is starting to get into some serious trouble.

Edit: And the CAA is in trouble too.
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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3776 on: August 14, 2017, 09:42:36 AM »
I think the CAA will indeed start to run the Garlic Press soon.  But its not flowing yet.

Image shows extent of attached GIF showing (among many clouds) the exit from between Melville Island and Bathurst Is. 

The CAA-GP is free to discharge south, but needs to clear its throat before it starts to swallow the CAB MYI ice from the north.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3777 on: August 14, 2017, 10:40:01 AM »
Here is an updated forecast for total melt the next five days from that ambitious new experimental site mentioned earlier.

I note that the "dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice-land model" incorporates "the Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE Version 5.1 sea ice model". I'm not aware of CICE 5.n being used anywhere else yet.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3778 on: August 14, 2017, 12:58:53 PM »
I think the CAA will indeed start to run the Garlic Press soon.  But its not flowing yet.

With all that heat from Canada entering the Canadian Archipelago a lot will start to move there. We could even see an ice free Perry Channel within a week. After that 2017 will certainly look much more similar to 2012 on the Pacific side.

Deeenngee

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3779 on: August 14, 2017, 03:33:48 PM »
Updated chart: descent to the min, 2017 vs other years
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3780 on: August 14, 2017, 04:24:38 PM »
DMI SST anomaly maps for August 11th 2012, 2016 and 2017. Its clear that 2017 doesn't have the same oomph on the Atlantic side of the Arctic as 2016, and it's not nearly as red in the Siberian sector as it was in 2012:
For completion sake, shouldn't we mention that 2017 is much more red in the Pacific sector, too? As for Atlantic side, - this somehow looks like one very prominent case of daily variation there. Particularly cloudy day 2017, and/or not much cloudy day 2012 and/or 2016?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3781 on: August 14, 2017, 04:32:22 PM »
The latest open access paper to emerge from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015):

The seeding of ice algal blooms in Arctic pack ice: The multiyear ice seed repository hypothesis

Ice algae are important primary producers in the Arctic food web. These organisms are adapted to living under extreme conditions in the sea ice environment. It is not well known how ice algae overwinter in the Arctic and are able to bloom the following spring. During the N-ICE campaign R/V Lance was frozen into the pack ice north of Svalbard between January and June 2015 and enabled scientists to study the sea ice and the ice algae from winter to summer. We found that multiyear ice because of its characteristic physical structure can function as a seed repository for ice algae and secure a sufficient seed stock for the spring ice algae bloom. During the last decades a change in the ice regime of the Arctic Ocean has been observed where multiyear ice is disappearing fast and ice-free summers could be a reality within this century. This could compromise the seeding mechanism and lead to profound changes in the ice algal species composition and primary productivity.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3782 on: August 14, 2017, 04:48:06 PM »
DMI SST anomaly maps for August 11th 2012, 2016 and 2017. Its clear that 2017 doesn't have the same oomph on the Atlantic side of the Arctic as 2016, and it's not nearly as red in the Siberian sector as it was in 2012:
For completion sake, shouldn't we mention that 2017 is much more red in the Pacific sector, too? As for Atlantic side, - this somehow looks like one very prominent case of daily variation there. Particularly cloudy day 2017, and/or not much cloudy day 2012 and/or 2016?
The red SSTA in the Pacific side mean that it could be definitely ice free until November, some parts till December and even Bering strait might be ice free in January.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3783 on: August 14, 2017, 04:56:09 PM »
I find this extreme pulverization to the infinitely small scales very intriguing. The co-existence of all sizes of ice pieces suggest water temperature is very near +0.01C triple point. Otherwise, the small items would melt very rapidly and the bigger ones would be rounded by melting.

This is due to the vast areas (if not entire Arctic basin's) ice pulverizing - hence each small piece of ice pulls air and water temperature down as they all mop up heat from the air and water into ice. Soft ice, thin ice, big waves. I wonder if this ice-ARIEL pulverizes into microscopic scales as well?

This is probably as near 3-dimensional water-sitting surface area maximum as practically possible in an ocean. How do you model this ice-ARIEL that will quickly dissolve if water mixes vertically?

An important feature is the sharpness of ice objects, it appears as if they mechanically break when pulverizing. This surface topology of ice objects is an important cue that points towards mechanial breakage as the primary, driving mechanism. Here melting is very far behind (a respondent process). Ice breaks, rather than melts on this picture showing the smallest scales.  :-X
Here's 2013.


Sébastian Roubinet didn't have much luck attempting a similar feat in 2013. Pen's fleet consists of two rather different craft though:
« Last Edit: August 14, 2017, 05:09:11 PM by VeliAlbertKallio »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3784 on: August 14, 2017, 07:22:07 PM »
i'm sure many remember what some here are expecting over wider areas (as a possibility of course, no claim that it has to) then look at this image and those a few hours before:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg125272.html#msg125272

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iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3785 on: August 14, 2017, 07:28:21 PM »
... We could even see an ice free Perry Channel within a week....

Watching closely yet reserving judgment.  I recall quite a prolonged warm spell across the CAA a few years back, which I thought would cause a dramatically early opening of the NWP.  In the event, it was only a little early (end July iirc).  It takes a lot of heat to melt all that ice.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3786 on: August 14, 2017, 07:52:00 PM »
Watching closely yet reserving judgment.  I recall quite a prolonged warm spell across the CAA a few years back, which I thought would cause a dramatically early opening of the NWP.  In the event, it was only a little early (end July iirc).  It takes a lot of heat to melt all that ice.

as to the NWP, due to last years import of more than usual MYI chuncks it will take even more to clear it, keyword "garlic press".

once the CAA kept the thick ice north of it the more southern parts were easier to melt out. as we have seen O-Buoy 14 has made quite some distance south-east which is somehow showing the path the ice that in parts originates in the CAB would take.
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Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3787 on: August 14, 2017, 09:07:57 PM »
i'm sure many remember what some here are expecting over wider areas (as a possibility of course, no claim that it has to) then look at this image and those a few hours before:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg125272.html#msg125272


In all fairness Magnamentis the buoy has been locked in a floe and I guess it has broken free now and the direction of the camera is likely gonna vary quite considerably.  Still, a big change on the last few months!

Edit - apologies, realised it is off topic, just seen the obuoy thread!
« Last Edit: August 14, 2017, 09:20:37 PM by Clenchie »
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A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3788 on: August 14, 2017, 10:34:36 PM »
Chukchi froze late in Dec and melted early

Below, open water extent from the 15 Sep 16 minimum to 13 Aug 17 is extracted from every 5th day of UH AMSR2 6km sea ice concentration and then averaged over the 67 frames. (The degree of gray quantitates this on the 0-255 scale.)

Certain peripheral regions of the Arctic Ocean stand out as seasonally ice-free already, notably the Chukchi and ESS. However in terms of solar heat adsorption (~albedo),those seasons currently correlate fairly poorly with maximal insolation (67 frame micro-tile at bottom).

Displaying the insolation, which is latitude and day of year dependent, in the form of a radial polar grayscale gradient for the same 67 days, would allow a direct graphical convolution of the respective film strips, providing a rough quantitative estimate of the mismatch. However too much transpires between the top of atmosphere and ocean surface (eg clouds) for this to be worthwhile.

Indeed, it appears that the 'blue ocean' season is primarily extending in the opposite direction, towards Oct-Nov-Dec rather than Aug-Jul-June. If so, then encroaching atlantification is becoming a key driver of observed sea ice trends, at least around to the Laptev.

Associated effects may displace the oft-repeated view that solar heat adsorption from decreased albedo of early open water will be the dominant effect.

An article this April made a big splash to that effect:

Here, we show that recent sea ice reductions, weakening of the halocline, and shoaling of the intermediate-depth Atlantic Water layer in the eastern Eurasian Basin [Laptev] have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin [Barents].

The associated enhanced release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin.


https://tinyurl.com/y7347frg free full draft pdf
http://sciencenordic.com/arctic-ocean-starting-resemble-atlantic popular
https://tinyurl.com/y8w3mhm7 wapo with quotes
« Last Edit: August 15, 2017, 05:14:15 PM by A-Team »

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3789 on: August 15, 2017, 03:34:00 AM »
Watching closely yet reserving judgment.  I recall quite a prolonged warm spell across the CAA a few years back, which I thought would cause a dramatically early opening of the NWP.  In the event, it was only a little early (end July iirc).  It takes a lot of heat to melt all that ice.
The difference could be, that this time we are in August and the straight has already received moths of energy.

as to the NWP, due to last years import of more than usual MYI chuncks it will take even more to clear it, keyword "garlic press".
Interesting point. Could be true.

cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3790 on: August 15, 2017, 05:21:37 AM »
moths of energy.

Just thank God it isn't receiving Butterflies of energy yet. :o

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3791 on: August 15, 2017, 11:14:09 AM »
Since about a Week excessive Algae Blooms visible in the Barents north of Finland and northestern of Hudson Bay.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3792 on: August 15, 2017, 12:29:07 PM »
Since about a Week excessive Algae Blooms visible in the Barents north of Finland and northestern of Hudson Bay.

Algae blooms is bad news. Unlike one could think from basics of Gaia theory, life vs ice relations are different, because life attempts to remove ice to gain more local habitat. This is a case of "here and now is more important than everywhere and for ages to come" thing. Algae is doing it as much as any other kind of organism (including humans). So, Algae helps itself by melting ice around. Significant feedback. Some details about it: here, here, here.

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3793 on: August 15, 2017, 01:19:54 PM »
I find this extreme pulverization to the infinitely small scales very intriguing.
...
I imagine that any floating ice field has a fractal-type size distribution.  You could as well replace the yacht in your image with Greenland, and the image could be taken as representing a plausible reality.  Similarly down to the micro-scale where melting takes place.  Big bits and small bits, all the way down.  So, presumably, similar equations relating to rate of melt apply throughout the size range.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3794 on: August 15, 2017, 01:54:23 PM »
... So, presumably, similar equations relating to rate of melt apply throughout the size range.
Nope. Dramatically different equations for dramatically different sizes. 1st, the lesser the size, the higher surface/volume ratio of the piece. Per-cubic-mm intensity of heat exchange between ice and water/air - depends on that ratio. 2nd, wave action effect is dramatically different when pieces get small enough. 3rd, large pieces cool themselves down, extra much, "in the middle", by their own high albedo, while small ones are typically surrounded by dark water. Etc etc.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3795 on: August 15, 2017, 03:36:44 PM »
The latest open access paper to emerge from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015):

The seeding of ice algal blooms in Arctic pack ice: The multiyear ice seed repository hypothesis

Ice algae are important primary producers in the Arctic food web. These organisms are adapted to living under extreme conditions in the sea ice environment. It is not well known how ice algae overwinter in the Arctic and are able to bloom the following spring. During the N-ICE campaign R/V Lance was frozen into the pack ice north of Svalbard between January and June 2015 and enabled scientists to study the sea ice and the ice algae from winter to summer. We found that multiyear ice because of its characteristic physical structure can function as a seed repository for ice algae and secure a sufficient seed stock for the spring ice algae bloom. During the last decades a change in the ice regime of the Arctic Ocean has been observed where multiyear ice is disappearing fast and ice-free summers could be a reality within this century. This could compromise the seeding mechanism and lead to profound changes in the ice algal species composition and primary productivity.


I think the algae will bloom aplenty, and life will explode, causing massive photosynthesis, carbon-sequestration, methane-absorption, and a whole new vibrant ecoystem on Earth. But the Arctic must be protected from over-fishing, oil, etc.
Algae blooms counter-act warming-effects of methane and absorb carbon ---> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,12.msg123835.html#msg123835

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3796 on: August 15, 2017, 03:38:20 PM »
... In any event you she could also join a select list of ships that have been trapped by the ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic. :)

Apologies for going briefly OT, but one immediately thinks of the Fram. Tragically however, Erebus and Terror didn't fare so well when they headed north.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3797 on: August 15, 2017, 03:57:42 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

dnem

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3798 on: August 15, 2017, 04:50:09 PM »
... So, presumably, similar equations relating to rate of melt apply throughout the size range.
Nope. Dramatically different equations for dramatically different sizes. 1st, the lesser the size, the higher surface/volume ratio of the piece. Per-cubic-mm intensity of heat exchange between ice and water/air - depends on that ratio. 2nd, wave action effect is dramatically different when pieces get small enough. 3rd, large pieces cool themselves down, extra much, "in the middle", by their own high albedo, while small ones are typically surrounded by dark water. Etc etc.

similar equations, but they don't have to be linear equations, they can have square and cubic terms, no?

A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3799 on: August 15, 2017, 05:03:50 PM »
Because of the rate-limiting nutrient question, I'm skeptical that future phytoplankton blooms will prove at all predictable; no question though that blooms can trap solar heat through thin ice and higher in the water column. Their effects on atmospheric gases can go either way, even counter-intuitively leading to less carbon sunk to the bottom.

Sounds like we would be in bloom type 2 at this time; these show up each year at WorldView though their full extent is seldom clear because of clouds.

Role for Atlantic inflows and sea ice loss on shifting phytoplankton blooms in the Barents Sea.
L Oziel et al May 2017
https://tinyurl.com/ybauj8yw  free full text

In years of minimal sea ice extent, two spatially distinct blooms were clearly observed: one along the ice edge and another in ice-free water. These blooms are thought to be triggered by different stratification mechanisms: heating of the surface layers in ice-free waters and melting of the sea ice along the ice edge.

In years of maximal sea ice extent, no such spatial delimitation was observed. The spring bloom generally ended inJune when nutrients in the surface layer were depleted. This was followed by a stratified and oligotrophic summer period. A coccolithophore bloom generally developed in August, but was confined only to AtlanticWaters.

In these same waters, a late summer bloom of non-calcifying algae was observed in September, triggered by enhanced mixing, which replenishes surface waters with nutrients.

Remotely sensed chlorophyll a and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) reveal the existence of at least three distinct blooms in the Barents Sea.

The spring bloom, composed exclusively of ‘‘non-calcifying’’ phytoplankton, is triggered by two stratification processes: surface heating in the south and sea ice melting along the MIZ in the north.

The summer period is characterized by the succession of coccolithophores in late July when stratification and oligotrophic conditions are severe, followed by ‘‘non-calcifying’’ phytoplankton when vertical mixing increases in September.

Summer blooms seem to be tightly linked to the vertical mixing in the Atlantic Water area induced by local de-stratification along the mesoscale structure of the Polar and Southern Fronts combined with strong atmospheric forcing. Melt water volume also appears to be a key factor that can have a major influence by pre-venting vertical mixing.

Finally, our inter-annual study suggests that in an ‘‘Atlantification’’ context, both spring and summer blooms are extending further North and East due to the receding ice-edge and to the shift of the Southern Front in the same directions.

Annual Chl a and PIC concentrations have both increased during the last 17 years, whereas the winter input of nutrients from Atlantic Water at the Barents Sea entrance section decreased.

This leads to major questions about the future predictions about phyto-plankton phenology and nutrient dynamics in an ‘‘Atlantified’’ Barents Sea: how will the decline in winter nutrient stocks affect phytoplankton dynamics?
« Last Edit: August 15, 2017, 05:12:03 PM by A-Team »