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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #50 on: February 24, 2017, 01:49:52 AM »
What's the evidence that we've reached an annual peak? This thread seems about three or four weeks too early.
Technically, Arctic has no fixed boundary so some could nitpick there's always some melt going on... But yes there's no evidence the ice growth would have stopped already. I'd like to see the 15-day average of Ice Area turn down before saying it's definitely melt season. I'm okay by having this thread open already, but thickness growth continues on several areas still. Heck, even us here at 60.27°N got some 10cm snow just a day ago. Now the snow is about thickest this winter, maybe even 12cm (~ 4 3/4 inches). Official measurement site says 7 but what do they know. Mental.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 02:04:01 AM by Pmt111500 »
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #51 on: February 24, 2017, 06:21:21 AM »
 :o too soon  :o
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bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #52 on: February 24, 2017, 09:00:05 AM »
I'm inexperienced at this, as it is my first melt season on the forum. However, I've observed significant drops in extent when the wind is blowing onto the ice with warm air and presumably waves. There is still a notch out of the ice near Newfoundland because of a recent event - see this message:

Nullshcool is showing a low tracking up that eastern Canadian coast from 14th to 16th, with warm onshore winds followed by offshore. Looks like that will damage the ice in the same way as the recent damage to Fram.

Looking at Nullschool there is significant warm air coming up into the Bering Strait on Saturday; followed by consistent warm onshore winds on the eastern Canadian coast on Sunday through Monday.

My guess is that these will cause extent to drop, perhaps firming up the maximum.

Darvince

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #53 on: February 24, 2017, 09:23:56 AM »
is often around 5C in places up to 15C like i.e. "ostsee" and still they can freeze over if temps and time span are bouth favourable.
Baltic Sea in English. ;)

And in Liaoning Bay in China, which reaches temperatures warm enough for tropical cyclones in the heat of the summer, 26C, there are small amounts of gray ice this time of year.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #54 on: February 24, 2017, 04:51:20 PM »
Rather than speculating on whether it has or has not started, maybe we should be thinking about what tools people with various levels can use to monitor the (coming) season.

I suggest for people who are fairly new to watching the seasons world-wide, or who like me simply need an occasional reminder, that a map of day and night such as this can be useful:

https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #55 on: February 25, 2017, 01:24:24 AM »
is often around 5C in places up to 15C like i.e. "ostsee" and still they can freeze over if temps and time span are bouth favourable.
Baltic Sea in English. ;)

And in Liaoning Bay in China, which reaches temperatures warm enough for tropical cyclones in the heat of the summer, 26C, there are small amounts of gray ice this time of year.

baltic, right, thanks, i should have looked it up but was a bit in a hurry :-) nice that you jumped in

cheers
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #56 on: February 25, 2017, 06:04:28 AM »
Just noticed extent, both NSIDC and JAXA, have gone down. But for anyone who had any doubt about melt season beginning, check out the volume drop. ;)

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #57 on: February 25, 2017, 06:14:03 AM »
Just noticed extent, both NSIDC and JAXA, have gone down. But for anyone who had any doubt about melt season beginning, check out the volume drop. ;)

Oh, that looks like an adjustment made by Pruitt :D .


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Dave C

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #58 on: February 25, 2017, 09:05:28 AM »
Just noticed extent, both NSIDC and JAXA, have gone down. But for anyone who had any doubt about melt season beginning, check out the volume drop. ;)

I've always thought it is funny that groups would post these results.
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #59 on: February 25, 2017, 01:09:04 PM »
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

Yes, it would be. We want near-real time numbers, and we all understand that sometimes things go wrong with automated processes. That's why we - unlike climate risk deniers - don't make a fuss about it when it happens.

BTW, I'm visiting relatives in the Netherlands this week, so won't be able to perform near-real time moderating activities (but I try to read up in the mornings and evenings). Just so you know.

And for me the melting season officially starts when (JAXA) extent has reached its maximum. That to me is sort of a tradition. Even though volume will continue to grow for a few weeks longer. But it's not that important.
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bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #60 on: February 25, 2017, 01:42:40 PM »
The CAA garlic press has been mentioned a few times.

I've been watching the live MODIS true colour images of the Barrow Strait past Resolute, Canada (with Griffith Island - I was born in Griffith, NSW). The ice has been slumping regularly - see gif below which is from 19th to 24th Feb.

I checked back through previous years and there is nothing that matches this so early in the season.

The most recent date in the gif can be seen at https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-02-24&z=3&v=-1660863.4345131656,-1463410.123253129,-677823.4345131656,-959090.123253129&ab=on&as=2017-02-19&ae=2017-02-24&av=1&al=false


Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #61 on: February 25, 2017, 04:09:35 PM »
It is fixed by the way, in case anyone didn't catch the  ;) to start with, which was supposed to be a hint that it was not real. As if.    P.S. NSIDC extent really dropped again, though.

pauldry600

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #62 on: February 25, 2017, 04:35:33 PM »
I was looking at world view last night and the weakness of the ice is staggering, just staggering. Ive been studying the arctic since 2005 and what I am seeing at the moment is ice Ive seen previously in June. This to me looks a year that could see a very very small minimum but ill pass judgement later in the year. Maybe theres going to be a miracle or some 50bn sea ice generators

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #63 on: February 25, 2017, 05:17:54 PM »
It is fixed by the way, in case anyone didn't catch the  ;) to start with, which was supposed to be a hint that it was not real. As if.    P.S. NSIDC extent really dropped again, though.


Maybe the thickness is increasing dramatically.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #64 on: February 25, 2017, 06:37:16 PM »
I was looking at world view last night and the weakness of the ice is staggering, just staggering. Ive been studying the arctic since 2005 and what I am seeing at the moment is ice Ive seen previously in June. This to me looks a year that could see a very very small minimum but ill pass judgement later in the year. Maybe theres going to be a miracle or some 50bn sea ice generators

Hycom confirms, it's staggering. Needs to be clicked. Compared Feb 24 this year vs 2016. Look at Laptev Sea, ESS and Beaufort. And all the thickest ice near Fram Strait for export. Also positive anomalies (+1.1 - +2.0 C) for Arctic Feb 26 - Mar 4 (Climate Reanalyzer). Images from https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #65 on: February 25, 2017, 07:32:38 PM »
That was a nice little run we had there for a few days, but now reality has to set back in.
 Feb. 20th comp'ed to Feb. 24th
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE

Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #66 on: February 25, 2017, 09:01:38 PM »
Maybe I'm once again impatient, but the weather conditions in the Barents and the Sea of Okhotsk in several days may cause SIE to drop significantly in those seas. The SoO is located between 44 and 61 latitudes, so the insolation is high already especially in the south. On the other hand SIE can rise in the Barents sea. Anyway SIE is near it's annual maximum and it's possible the melting season have already started in terms of SIE

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #67 on: February 25, 2017, 09:34:23 PM »
Just noticed extent, both NSIDC and JAXA, have gone down. But for anyone who had any doubt about melt season beginning, check out the volume drop. ;)

I've always thought it is funny that groups would post these results.
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

And miss the opportunity to lighten the mood of the community in the midst of this Greek Tragedy?  ???

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #68 on: February 25, 2017, 09:36:43 PM »
I was looking at world view last night and the weakness of the ice is staggering, just staggering. Ive been studying the arctic since 2005 and what I am seeing at the moment is ice Ive seen previously in June. This to me looks a year that could see a very very small minimum but ill pass judgement later in the year. Maybe theres going to be a miracle or some 50bn sea ice generators

Hycom confirms, it's staggering. Needs to be clicked. Compared Feb 24 this year vs 2016. Look at Laptev Sea, ESS and Beaufort. And all the thickest ice near Fram Strait for export. Also positive anomalies (+1.1 - +2.0 C) for Arctic Feb 26 - Mar 4 (Climate Reanalyzer). Images from https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

And we must keep in mind that, despite all of the very thick ice in the Beaufort last year, it melted out completely. This melt season will be riveting.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #69 on: February 26, 2017, 08:40:13 AM »
Very strong and persistent winds in and around the Arctic for the next several days. With much of the ice so thin, the drifting and movement will continue to cause melt. The air and winds are very cold, but this just doesn't help much when warm waters keep getting stirred up.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #70 on: February 26, 2017, 10:29:48 AM »
A very important question is how thick the snow cover is right now onto the ice after all those bomb cyclones during most of this freezing season?

From this article at InsideClimatenews.org that looks at the sea ice paradox wrt to ice growth around Antarctica and melting Arctic. In the article there is an important statement which might have big implications for the upcoming melting season:

"Additionally, the snowpack on top of the Antarctic ice is much thicker than in the Arctic, Nicolaus said. That means there is less formation of dark-colored surface melt ponds, which amplify the melting and warming in the Arctic, he explained."

Now, is the snow cover thicker compared to 2013 and other years?

Read more at https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31052016/why-antarctica-sea-ice-level-growing-while-arctic-glaciers-melts-climate-change-global-warming

Dave C

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2017, 02:53:28 PM »
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

Yes, it would be. We want near-real time numbers, and we all understand that sometimes things go wrong with automated processes. That's why we - unlike climate risk deniers - don't make a fuss about it when it happens.


I would strongly disagree. Credibility is extremely important if you are producing information. Humans tend to think in heuristics, rather than extensively verify every piece of data. If someone produces obviously wrong data it's reasonable to be concerned that they are making other more subtle errors that are not being corrected. I think trust in your numbers is much more important than the convenience of real time data.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #72 on: February 26, 2017, 04:36:42 PM »
Would it really be worse to wait a day or two to check the numbers for absurdity?

Yes, it would be. We want near-real time numbers, and we all understand that sometimes things go wrong with automated processes. That's why we - unlike climate risk deniers - don't make a fuss about it when it happens.


I would strongly disagree. Credibility is extremely important if you are producing information. Humans tend to think in heuristics, rather than extensively verify every piece of data. If someone produces obviously wrong data it's reasonable to be concerned that they are making other more subtle errors that are not being corrected. I think trust in your numbers is much more important than the convenience of real time data.

thanks, has been my point for long, just that quite often someone feels offended due to connections to specific work or having friends that are related and as a rusult feedback can be quite harsh out of the blue at times LOL.

anyways i'm very glad that others as well are aware that no information at all, is better than wrong information while of course in this clear case one could say it's obvious, but believe me, i have been reading deniers comments on obvious flukes that made me speechless, hence we are back to rule number one, the truth and nothing but the truth to achieve and keep the highest possible level of credibility. ultimately deniers re-plenish their arsenal from mistakes of those in defense of the just cause.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 10:08:49 PM by magnamentis »
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dnem

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #73 on: February 26, 2017, 07:28:27 PM »
C'mon folks, TT's post was just a little joke complete with a wink emoji.  Let's not get too serious here (the situation itself is serious enough!).

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #74 on: February 26, 2017, 10:12:10 PM »
C'mon folks, TT's post was just a little joke complete with a wink emoji.  Let's not get too serious here (the situation itself is serious enough!).

no problem while at times a joke can trigger a serious discussion and the subject is very very important if we want to get an impact with our contributions and for example with this forum, hence i can see nothing wrong with the discussion except that it would belong to another thread should it continue.

i do not disagree but why do you care so much about that little exchange, frankly speaking it was positive and fun and not the fun is gone for no good reason. i think the remark was not helpful but that's my opinion and no offense meant.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #75 on: February 27, 2017, 06:49:24 AM »
Undeniable melting in the Bering.
24th thru 26th
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #76 on: February 27, 2017, 07:35:27 AM »
Feb 23-26. VIIRS I05 band from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks

Hints of the Beaufort gyre?  I find it difficult to believe we see anything analogous to the "big block" this year.


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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #77 on: February 27, 2017, 10:02:30 PM »
NSIDC SIE  106 km2

2017,    02,  16,     14.301

2017,    02,  26,     14.325

10 days net increase approx. 24k

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #78 on: February 28, 2017, 05:43:27 AM »
Another JAXA SIE drop today. Volume is currently stymied, the PV is split and weakened, and the temp. anomalies are slowly returning to the Arctic. Here is a look at SMOS.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #79 on: February 28, 2017, 06:30:43 AM »
Another JAXA SIE drop today. Volume is currently stymied, the PV is split and weakened, and the temp. anomalies are slowly returning to the Arctic. ...
We don't need the anomalies any more.  We are less than 4 weeks from the equinox.  Insolation in the peripheral seas pretty much is putting paid on the Max, and is already starting to shift the dynamic away from creating more ice.  Get ready for the drop.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #80 on: February 28, 2017, 06:33:00 AM »
Another JAXA SIE drop today. Volume is currently stymied, the PV is split and weakened, and the temp. anomalies are slowly returning to the Arctic. ...
We don't need the anomalies any more.  We are less than 4 weeks from the equinox.  Insolation in the peripheral seas pretty much is putting paid on the Max, and is already starting to shift the dynamic away from creating more ice.  Get ready for the drop.
Good point.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2017, 06:39:27 AM by Tigertown »

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #81 on: February 28, 2017, 07:15:45 AM »
Particularly with those low thicknesses in the Sea of Okhostk. Mucho Biggo extent decline ready to go there to kick off the season.

wallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #82 on: February 28, 2017, 09:09:21 AM »
With the coming melt season, I was wondering what effect Melt Ponds will have this year, or is the ice condition already so poor, that Melt Ponds will not be required for any pre-conditioning .

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #83 on: February 28, 2017, 09:46:54 AM »
Hi wallen!

I think the glory days of the melt pond are lost? The 'crackopalypse years' lead to a reduction in floe size so the large expanses of melt water covering sections of the pack just cannot form up any more without draining due to leads?

The new measure should be those lead densities? Leads also darken the overall surface. If the floe is small enough then side melt becomes a major cause of melt out so many sub 100m floes means early and rapid melt?

I'm sure other think differently though! :)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #84 on: February 28, 2017, 10:25:13 AM »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #85 on: February 28, 2017, 03:51:54 PM »
I think the Northwest Passage will open very early this year, perhaps the earliest on record. The only possible problem could be the reemergence of the "Garlic Press" with thick MYI traversing the CAA and blocking the passage.

bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #86 on: February 28, 2017, 05:04:28 PM »
thick MYI

Precious little of that around...

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #87 on: February 28, 2017, 08:00:37 PM »
With the coming melt season, I was wondering what effect Melt Ponds will have this year, or is the ice condition already so poor, that Melt Ponds will not be required for any pre-conditioning .

i think there will be only few ponds because the smallest poodle immediatly will break through to the ocean surface, partly kidding but i expect at least a bit of this.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #88 on: February 28, 2017, 10:35:45 PM »
thick MYI

Precious little of that around...

Much of it moved into the CAA last year. You can find it in channels between the islands.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #89 on: March 01, 2017, 04:29:26 AM »
A revisit of the concentration, with the image for the 28th double-timed.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #90 on: March 01, 2017, 04:45:03 AM »
Temp. anomalies may not be needed to have melting anymore at this point in the year, but we have them nonetheless. Just a visual inspection of the concentration that I posted above shows how the ice is going down again. I am afraid of what will happen with some real heat and insolation later this year. Talk about preconditioning.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #91 on: March 01, 2017, 11:05:14 AM »
Temp. anomalies may not be needed to have melting anymore at this point in the year, but we have them nonetheless. Just a visual inspection of the concentration that I posted above shows how the ice is going down again. I am afraid of what will happen with some real heat and insolation later this year. Talk about preconditioning.


ESS area seems to be much warmer than average Mar 3 - Mar 9.
On the other hand extremely cold over Alaska and Northern Canada.

Red

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #92 on: March 01, 2017, 04:21:46 PM »
Looking at the satellite shot for the 27th there is open water forming on the west coast of Ungava Bay and along the northeast coast of Labrador. There seems to be lots of room for compaction in the Davis Strait.
 https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden)&t=2017-02-27&z=3&v=-1459701.7703771119,-3268899.3955504056,-927733.7703771119,-2925859.3955504056
 Then when looking at the movement of the ice off of Labrador, Nullschool is showing sea surface temps just east of the ice pack at 4c. Is this enough to keep the the ice flowing freely out of the stait so as to keep the garlic press exit from clogging? 4c would probably work some magic on the slushy that is the ice pack?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-67.77,58.16,2849/loc=-57.803,58.520

bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #93 on: March 01, 2017, 05:34:08 PM »
Looking at the satellite shot for the 27th there is open water forming on the west coast of Ungava Bay and along the northeast coast of Labrador.

Looking further south from your link, you can see how the ice has been separated from the land and pushed south (look for features that match). There was strong off-shore winds in that period.

However, the winds are forecast to strengthen to on-shore with a significant northerly component, and temperatures increasing, so I expect the ice to be decimated in this area.

Cate

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #94 on: March 01, 2017, 09:07:11 PM »
And farther south again, on the NE coast of Newfoundland, the Canadian Ice Service chart for Feb 28 shows some lessening of pressure, with concentration close to shore dropping to 7-8/10, down from 9-10/10 last week. Most likely this is a function of offshore winds, as bairgon has noted. Bonavista Bay has also cleared out---for now, of course. A change in wind can bring it all back in. The ice in this area--the traditional "front" for the Newfoundland seal hunt----is almost entirely wind-dependent. Melt-out is a matter of when, not if. This is the time of year when we Newfoundlanders start to pray for sustained sou'westerlies, to blow the damned stuff back out into the Labrador Current and on south to warmer waters.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #95 on: March 03, 2017, 07:42:03 PM »
I was looking recent Climate Reanalyzer, it's going to be warm Mar 8 - Mar 11, in some places anomalies +20 - +30 ˚C (ESS, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay). Fram export will be active again Mar 5 - Mar 7 according to Hycom.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #96 on: March 04, 2017, 06:59:06 PM »
Latest Hycom shows Fram export accelerating Mar 8 - Mar 11. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #97 on: March 04, 2017, 11:05:49 PM »
Beaufort has thickened a bit over the past few weeks.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #98 on: March 05, 2017, 01:24:09 AM »
Beaufort has thickened a bit over the past few weeks.
Hard for it not to, as a lot of the ice was well under 1.5M...
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #99 on: March 05, 2017, 05:55:45 PM »
Using nullschool, the following images are the Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for 5 March 2015,2016,2017

I think the North Pacific is much cooler this year and that might favor a milder melting season.

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