Happy New Year 2024 (and sorry for the forum being offline some hours) /DM
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
I wonder if enhanced Siberian snowcover is playing a part in this?
Quote from: jai mitchell on March 19, 2017, 07:25:22 PMI don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northwardAnd windier, the denser it's packed the more water it will represent when melted.
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.
@NevenIt might be worth looking into, as there have been so many severe avalanches in that area lately. I would google it myself, but I am on the way out to run errands.
Quote from: crandles on March 19, 2017, 09:46:22 PMThat purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area. Which is why I don't trust that Snow Water Equivalent graph. There's no way there's so much snow in the Himalayas, all of the time. Of course, there's more precipitation, and so more snow extent and snow depth, but not so much to make that trend line get off the charts. There are quite a few zones with negative anomalies as well.But, anyway, it's a conclusion I reached last year or the year before. I may be wrong.
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?
Quote from: dosibl on March 20, 2017, 03:29:06 PMBefore we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/
Quote from: dosibl on March 20, 2017, 03:29:06 PMBefore we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/2. Ditto the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea3. Ditto the Laptev and East Siberian Seas4. How many (and how deep, warm, wet) spring cyclones spin around the Arctic Ocean 5. How the snow melt progresses across Canada, Alaska and SiberiaNext please!
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going? This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.
2 Don´t do any predictions about the minimum before July
dosibl, the most telling areas will be the Beaufort
Snow is a component of the cryosphere which has played an important role in Earth energy balance. Northern hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) has steadily decreased since 1980 and in recently the trend of SCE is sharply decreased. Because Himalaya region's shows most significant changes except for the Arctic, we analyzed this region for SCE. We used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow product from 2001 to 2011 in august. Analysis was made by considering some conditions (region, elevation, longitude and climate) which can affect the changes in SCE. The entire SCE in Himalaya for 11 years has steadily increased(+55,098 km2). Trends for SCE in western region has increased(+77,781km2), But trend for central and eastern have decreased -3,453 km2, -19,230km2, respectively. According to elevation increases, the ratio of snow in each study area is increased. In 30°N~35°N SCE shows increased trend, 27°N~28°N shows decreased trend. In tundra climate, trends for SCE are similar to regional analysis. whereas the result in tropical climate's trend was increased. these performed result shows different side for change of SCE depending on each condition. The result of this study were similar to the rapid decline of the northern hemisphere SCE area in recent. The result of this study can be used to help management to water budget in Central-Asia country located to Himalayas.
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.
..... unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.
QuoteBefore we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going? This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.My quick and off the cuff list might be as follows:1: What real world empirical data can we trust regarding the state of the halocline. -once the besieged lower salinity surface waters are exported and corrupted by salt enrichment from the winter there can be no winter refreeze.2: How much water vapour is smoking in to the zone on unforeseen atmospheric circulation systemic reformations. - as it phase transitions from vapour to liquid or even more so importantly from liquid to solid it emits photons in all directions, most importantly downwards, that are precisely the frequency for the reverse transition of water molecules in the reverse homily to elevate their energy level via a melt or boil.3: How much export transport of ice out of the basin is current and ongoing, what salt/ water ratio is part of this equation, with implications obvious for (1)
New post today from Robertscribbler: "Frailest Ever Winter Sea Ice Facing a Cruel, Cruel Summer."https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/20/frailest-ever-winter-sea-ice-facing-a-cruel-cruel-summer/
Neven and the sea ice observers over at The Arctic Sea Ice blog produced the following graph depicting what is all-too-likely to be a 2017 in which the sea ice extent maximum just hit another consecutive annual record low:(2015, 2016 and 2017 were three consecutive record low winter maximum years for sea ice extent in a row. Image by Deeenngee and The Arctic Sea Ice Blog.)Neven, who is one of the world’s top sea ice analysts,
SMOS 18th-20thCLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE
I had to laugh too.
Isn't anybody going to cheer me up?I've been stunned, through re-freeze, by the scale of the departure from an 'old' Arctic winter and now that most of the basin is 'visible' again on Sat I am further stunned by 'the look' of the ice!Tell me I have it all wrong and the ice is all 'good ice' and not pathetic warm stuff that shatters into teeny bits when stressed?When I look at the peripheral areas they are awash with swirls of froth from melt and we should not be even melting yet?Persuade me ,anybody!, that I have it all wrong and that any high melt/high export behaviours over May/June will not leave us in a lot of trouble?Reassure me that even if the basin soaks up nearly twice the energy it did last year we will not be blighted by extreme weathers over Autumn/early winter!Anybody?
A better look at the Laptev
We will most likely see thick ice make an exit to the Atlantic "death zone" which should give the upcoming melting season a decent start.
Thanks LMV.Too see the Atlantic currents break thru the ice is going to be an spectacle, a lot of thick ice already sitting on top of the Spitsbergen current for instance.The forecast shows also high pressure system wanting to stay over Beaufort, let us see whether that realizes and especially persists, in which case it would be dangerous to Beaufort sea ice in April.