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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #650 on: April 06, 2017, 04:35:50 PM »
Tried to post this to Neven's blog (didn't work). Any comments? :

What's really worrying is that they include recent years (mostly low volume years) in their 'mean volume 1979-2016'.
That means the black line will be getting lower each year, as recent years are added to the mean.
If they just used 1979-2000 (as Climate-Reanalyser does for temperatures), then the black line would be much higher up the chart (not that that period alone would be enough to show average though). What do the ice cores, taken from at least the 1970s, show, about the longer-term past of the Arctic?

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/04/piomas-april-2017.html
.

<Take it to the PIOMAS thread, Thomas,s'il vous plaît; N.>
« Last Edit: April 06, 2017, 09:46:06 PM by Neven »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #651 on: April 06, 2017, 09:40:30 PM »
Uhh-ohh! Looks like this is about to really open up now.
Svalbard on the right.
1st vs 6th
CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #652 on: April 06, 2017, 09:50:28 PM »
...
What's really worrying is that they include recent years (mostly low volume years) in their 'mean volume 1979-2016'. That means the black line will be getting lower each year, as recent years are added to the mean...

...What do the ice cores, taken from at least the 1970s, show, about the longer-term past of the Arctic?
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/04/piomas-april-2017.html

I confess I had not noticed that the Mean Volume on PIOMAS was a movable feast until you pointed it out. Perhaps Jim Pettit, or somebody like that, might be able to shed some light on why it has been done that way. You are certainly correct in saying that the repeated inclusion of the more recent results is going to pull the Mean downwards.

Regarding Greenland drilling, you might want to do a Google on Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP) or Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP), or, for starters, try...
http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/past_atmos/

http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/news/news13/greenland-ice-cores-reveal-warm-climate-of-the-past/

More recently, there was the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project (NEEM).
http://neem.dk/
« Last Edit: April 06, 2017, 10:22:56 PM by Bill Fothergill »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #653 on: April 06, 2017, 10:03:32 PM »
4 day forecast on nullschool shows a self-generated low in the Barents.  This looks favorable for ice export and compaction north of Svalbard for at least the next week.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/04/10/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=42.55,72.85,816
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #655 on: April 06, 2017, 10:28:12 PM »
Uhh-ohh! Looks like this is about to really open up now.
Svalbard on the right.
1st vs 6th
CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE


looks like a massive bridge-head directly pointing to the pole, considering recent mobility of the core ice that's boding not well indeed. thanks for the repeating great images, very useful stuff.

@Bill Fothergill
you're welcome, thx for the links, those should be prominently place somewhere on the ASIG page IMO, i wish my english would allow for such great articles. kudos, very exiting content.

EDIT: i assume you allow that i posted those on my facebook profile, else let me know
« Last Edit: April 06, 2017, 10:50:53 PM by magnamentis »
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #656 on: April 06, 2017, 11:37:33 PM »
Both GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs indicating lots of high pressure. Here are 120 and 240 hours from each. Too early for the sun to do much preconditioning?







Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #657 on: April 07, 2017, 12:40:42 AM »
Almost by definition, anyone looking at this particular thread will be very interested in just how the 2017 melt season is going to eventually pan out. One of the key factors is undoubtedly going to be the volume of sea ice that is currently still in existence up in the Arctic. Anyone not yet familiar with the excellent graphics provided by (amongst others) Wipneus and Jim Pettit should have a look at the material available on their websites.

The Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page contains the relevant links...
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

I wondered how helpful the NSIDC monthly values (for both extent and area) could be, in terms of helping people to come up with early ballpark figures for where they think that 2017 might end up. In order to present the data in what is hopefully an understandable fashion, I have shamelessly plagiarised one of Jim's graphs.

There are two attached charts; the first looks at extent and the second at area. However, the layouts are identical in each case.

The top of the blue bars indicates the monthly average at the March maximum for each year, and the actual value is given as a data label above the bar.

The red bars represent the difference between the March average (i.e. the maximum) and the September average (i.e. the minimum). This obviously equates to the amount of ice that melted (or was exported, or disappeared by any other mechanism) during the melt season. (Each actual value is shown within the relevant red bar.)

The length of each blue bar corresponds to the monthly average at the relevant September minimum, i.e. the ice remaining at the end of each melt season. (Again, the actual values are given within each of the blue bars.)

What should be painfully clear is that there is a double whammy going on. Not only is the average maximum value decreasing, but the average loss leading up to the minimum is increasing. As a consequence, the ice remaining at the September minimum is feeling the pinch - from both sides.

A simple 2nd-order polynomial trend has been applied at the top and bottom of each chart (extent and area) and their convergence is merely a matter of "when", not "if". (N.B. The trend lines have been extended only as far as 2020, as different choices of trend-type rapidly diverge.)

Given the dearth of multi-year ice, and the extensive export/transport which already seems to be well under way, one wonders if those trend lines are horribly understating the reality.


Once again, the idea for this type of chart came from Jim Pettit's site.

dnem

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #658 on: April 07, 2017, 12:51:26 AM »
What should be painfully clear is that there is a double whammy going on. Not only is the average maximum value decreasing, but the average loss leading up to the minimum is increasing. As a consequence, the ice remaining at the September minimum is feeling the pinch - from both sides.

Bill - Today I sent a link to Jim's PIOMAS chart that you "plagiarized" to a concerned but non-ice-obsessed neighbor, as I thought it was an excellent graphic.  I titled the email "A classic pincer move," a term from military strategy where you attack an enemy from two flanks simultaneously.

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #659 on: April 07, 2017, 03:29:15 AM »
Is someone going to post a poll regarding predictions for this year's summer low?
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #660 on: April 07, 2017, 04:17:23 AM »
The Beaufort. April 3rd-6th

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #661 on: April 07, 2017, 04:20:44 AM »

jgnfld

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #662 on: April 07, 2017, 07:53:35 AM »
Re. Newfoundland...

There have been 2 strong nor'easters here which have blown the pack which normally resides to the NE of the Avalon at this time of the year into shore. Conception Bay, Bonavista Bay, and Trinity Bay are quite covered. There are a few small bergs mixed in with the pack in Conception Bay, at least, which can be seen from shore. At least one polar bear has come ashore at Bonavista. One of the container ships which supplies the island took a hit apparently from a growler or bergy bit mangling its bulbous underwater bow in the process.

The shore on the seaward side of the Avalon Peninsula was covered but with the winds changing back to southerly much of the pack there is back out to sea. The bays will be a different matter, and much slower to clear, likely.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2017, 08:05:22 AM by jgnfld »

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #663 on: April 07, 2017, 08:34:32 AM »
Is someone going to post a poll regarding predictions for this year's summer low?

Way too early. I'll be posting the first poll in June, and I would kindly ask others not to open polls before that.

It's a crap shoot either way, but projections are more solid after the first phase of the melting season has passed (April-May-first week of June).
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #664 on: April 07, 2017, 09:40:11 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies and 5-day outlook (Climate Reanalyzer). Current forecast still shows cyclone over Bering Strait approaching Tue evening, therefore higher anomalies over Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Tue - Fri next week.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #665 on: April 07, 2017, 11:46:40 AM »
Both GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs indicating lots of high pressure. Here are 120 and 240 hours from each. Too early for the sun to do much preconditioning?


Not yet I believe (see ongoing stupid questions discussions), but the last ecmwf run sees the current Beaufort high become strong and persistent. Overall Beaufort sea albedo to continue downwards (because of cracks and openings)

Second half of the animation not to be taken really seriously (that warm wave with 1050 hPa???).
« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 11:57:49 PM by seaicesailor »

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #666 on: April 07, 2017, 11:52:08 AM »
Don' worry- Nuclear Winter is in the works.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #667 on: April 07, 2017, 01:08:21 PM »
Both GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs indicating lots of high pressure. Here are 120 and 240 hours from each. Too early for the sun to do much preconditioning?







Depends. Right now it isn't doing as much damage as it could be say -- a month from now. As it sits, that high will likely begin to pull ice away from the coasts and allow an ice front to establish. Any open water will definitely soak up the insolation. Sunlight at 70N is plenty bright enough to cause issues already.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #668 on: April 07, 2017, 02:28:07 PM »
The Beaufort. April 3rd-6th


That high pressure is getting things moving.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #669 on: April 07, 2017, 02:41:59 PM »
It is counterintuitive to us living in lower latitudes but looking at measurements in the arctic it is striking how sunshine correlates with low temperatures, especially this early in the season. The attached temperature and pressure graph from Obuoy14 is just one further example of warmer (-10C) temperatures during lows. http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/weather
look at the battery data to get an indication of sunshine (charging batteries) and cloudy weather (lower daytime voltages)
sunshine comes with clear skies which also allows increased cooling by lack of long wave radiation from clouds

Sterks

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #670 on: April 07, 2017, 02:46:34 PM »
Somebody mentioned here that March 2017 month had been the warmest on record for the Arctic, but I can't find the reference.
Nonetheless, below a quote from the global temperatures thread with a map that illustrates that fact, and the NOAA forecast for April 2017.

Guys, Copernicus just arrived with their analysis for March. No surprise here, March was the  second warmest on record and 0,10oC cooler compared to March 2016. This number make me believe that a NASA GISS anomaly around 1,07-1,15oC above the average seemsquite reasonable.




Cate

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #671 on: April 07, 2017, 02:59:43 PM »
Re. Newfoundland...

....The bays will be a different matter, and much slower to clear, likely.

All we need are a few days of sustained SW winds, and the northern bays will clear out pretty nicely. But the extent of the pack in general has taken a beating from the two recent storms, compared to say, extent in the last week of March. The Canadian Ice Service today is showing much less pack to the east, but bergy water right around to the Burin Peninsula and well down through the Strait of Belle Isle.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #672 on: April 07, 2017, 05:09:45 PM »
It was the warmest cold season from 80N to the pole and the second warmest from the Arctic circle to the pole, if I remember the details right.

Note that the CFSv2 pattern for April is a strong wave 1 pattern with ridging over Eurasia and troughing over Canada. It's consistent with the positive PDO, developing El Niño and reactivated overturning in the Labrador and Greenland seas. It's a pattern that will lead to early ice melt in the Siberian seas.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #673 on: April 07, 2017, 05:52:14 PM »
I'm curious about the effect Nares Strait is having on Baffin Bay.  Specifically, Kane Basin (and the entire Strait) has not had an effective ice arch all winter, so Nares it has exported a lot of up-to-about-one-meter-thick (grown in Nares Strait) ice.  The volume (not thickness) of ice created in Nares Strait will be much greater than usual, as new ice with no snow cover is (virtually) continually being created in the northern parts of the Strait, and the first 10 or 50 cm grows much faster (in a given temperature) than the third.  And it is almost constantly being exported to Baffin Bay.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #674 on: April 07, 2017, 08:38:49 PM »
... I'll be posting the first poll in June, and I would kindly ask others not to open polls before that.

It's a crap shoot either way, but projections are more solid after the first phase of the melting season has passed (April-May-first week of June).
Yep, that's just the way the Sea Ice Prediction Network team see it as well.

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook

The SIPN people put out regularly updated summaries of the "predictions" they have received. These tend to kick off in June, with updates (i.e rethinks) getting aired, once in July and once in August. More details are available on the SIPN site.

A term that applies here is "decorrelation time". In layman's terms, and in the context of the September Arctic minimum, that basically means how far ahead does one see a good correlation between the current extent (or area, or volume - depends on your metric of choice) and that finally clocked up in September.

There are various papers available on this subject, and here is an example...

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~bitz/Blanchard_etal2011.pdf

Quoting from the Conclusion section of the above paper...

"We find that sea ice area at the summer minimum (September) is only significantly correlated with area in the previous two months, July and August, both in the model and observations."

Of course, some clown wrote an article on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog on that very subject in 2013.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/06/problematic-predictions.html


Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #675 on: April 07, 2017, 09:37:54 PM »
NSIDC SIE 106 km2
2017,    03,  25,     14.073                             2017,    04,  01,     14.126
2017,    03,  26,     14.107                             2017,    04,  02,     14.143
2017,    03,  27,     14.169                             2017,    04,  03,     14.227
2017,    03,  28,     14.178                             2017,    04,  04,     14.209
2017,    03,  29,     14.178                             2017,    04,  05,     14.114
2017,    03,  30,     14.181                             2017,    04,  06,     14.040
2017,    03,  31,     14.172

Last day below 14 million               2017,    02,  12,     13.898
« Last Edit: April 07, 2017, 09:47:31 PM by Tigertown »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #676 on: April 08, 2017, 12:07:42 AM »
... I'll be posting the first poll in June, and I would kindly ask others not to open polls before that.

It's a crap shoot either way, but projections are more solid after the first phase of the melting season has passed (April-May-first week of June).
Yep, that's just the way the Sea Ice Prediction Network team see it as well.


But I wonder if at some point the correlation can go further into May, April,... like for example when there is not enough ice past the Winter.

Extreme unreal  case to make myself understand, if there be zero ice in March, there be zero ice in September.

Being more realistic, if volume available in April keeps decreasing until a moment the heat brought by a less than average warm season is enough to melt it all, the SIPN wont make sense anymore, or our polls :-( (the least of the problems in reality).

dosibl

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #677 on: April 08, 2017, 12:16:24 AM »
At this point in the season I'd expect volume to be the most informative feature for the minimum, I've been shying away from the area/extent graphs because I don't think they tell as much of the story for overall ice health at the end of the freeze.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #678 on: April 08, 2017, 02:44:45 AM »
At this point in the season I'd expect volume to be the most informative feature for the minimum, I've been shying away from the area/extent graphs because I don't think they tell as much of the story for overall ice health at the end of the freeze.
A concentration graph would be good to see about right now. Wipneus has posted one in the past, though not lately, to my knowledge anyway.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #679 on: April 08, 2017, 07:36:14 AM »
The SIPN is right, onsidering that in the past few years all 3 metrics (extent, area, volume) were stable with random variability around March-April, thereby giving zero information. On the other hand, sis and dosibl are right, and this year has a very different volume. Will it matter come September? And will volume be low next winter as well? I am waiting anxiously for the answers.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #680 on: April 08, 2017, 09:49:56 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies (Climate Reanalyzer). Currently showing two low pressures next week over Bering Sea, high pressure (1,041) over Beaufort.
Image: low over Bering Sea on Wednesday (earth.nullschool).
« Last Edit: April 08, 2017, 10:21:49 AM by romett1 »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #681 on: April 08, 2017, 07:19:05 PM »
just want to say, I sure miss A-Team.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #682 on: April 08, 2017, 07:26:47 PM »
Any idea about A-Team is? And where is Frivoulouz? Haven't seen Sleepy here either for a while.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #683 on: April 08, 2017, 07:36:09 PM »
Any idea about A-Team is? And where is Frivoulouz? Haven't seen Sleepy here either for a while.

All missed.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #684 on: April 08, 2017, 08:28:24 PM »
+1

Tealight

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #685 on: April 08, 2017, 10:48:18 PM »
Everyone who believes in patterns can expect another strong melting season. In my pan-Arctic AWP graphs the cumulative value follows the pattern: 2 strong melting seasons followed by 2 weak melting season and one average melting season before the cycle repeats. However the regional breakdown is very important for the minimum in September. A record high pan-Arctic value doesn't guarantee a new record minimum like 2016 has shown. At least 2017 seems to follow the pattern with a record high AWP to date.

Over longer periods all years shift towards a higher energy absorption. When I did the calculation for 1988 and 1992 they ended up at -50 kWh/m2 and make 2009(-20kWh/m2) or 2013(-13kWh/m2) look like strong melting seasons.

The Pattern
2007   strong
2008   weak
2009   weak
2010   average
2011   strong
2012   strong
2013   weak
2014   weak
2015   average
2016   strong
2017   (strong)

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #686 on: April 08, 2017, 11:06:56 PM »
Tealight, maybe a short explanation would be interesting for people who lurk. I'm guessing you calculate Albedo-Warming Potential by combining sea ice concentration with how much energy is soaked up by open water?

Hang on, it's all there on your website:

The Albedo-Warming Potential is an attempt to quantify the additional warming from a lower ice cover at the poles. At the moment these calculations don't include cloud cover, therefore it is called "Warming Potential" and not actual warming. However, over six-month weather tends to average out and warm areas correlate well with low ice extent in September. The basis of all calculations is a self-developed global surface radiation model and NSIDC Sea Ice Concentration data.

The results could be used as a basis for sea ice forecast models and an analysis tool for scientists in combination with wind maps and ice drift maps. The cumulative results also give a better view of the whole melting season than just one single value for the final September sea ice extent.

Global surface radiation model details:
The model calculates the incoming solar radiation reaching the surface per day per square meter for all latitudes between 40N and 90N (0.2 degree steps). Considered are solar zenith angles, the atmospheric reduction (Air mass), projection effect and water albedo for every 15min interval. See the Block Diagram below for details.

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Tealight

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #687 on: April 08, 2017, 11:35:27 PM »
Tealight, maybe a short explanation would be interesting for people who lurk. I'm guessing you calculate Albedo-Warming Potential by combining sea ice concentration with how much energy is soaked up by open water?

Hang on, it's all there on your website:

Thank you Neven. That's of course important to explain. I just spend too much time on it and know it by heart.

AWP also considers melt ponds mainly in May/June/July.

johnm33

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #688 on: April 08, 2017, 11:40:37 PM »
+1
I can't believe he's lost interest, i thought/hoped he'd maybe start up his own show, an uninterrupted record of events, oh well.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #689 on: April 09, 2017, 12:10:44 AM »
Tealight, I personally don't believe in simplistic patterns like the one you mention, though I do believe 2017 will be a strong melting season. And I do also believe that AWP is extremely important. I have a gut feeling that the poor refreeze in autumn 2016 was very much related to the very high AWP throughout 2016.

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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #691 on: April 09, 2017, 03:33:23 AM »
GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate a very strong storm in Asian North Pacific preceding a building big high pressure in the Arctic on the Pacific side. The Atlantic has been so active, but maybe the Pacific side is set to be very interesting in April.




Darvince

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #692 on: April 09, 2017, 04:39:05 AM »
Any idea about A-Team is? And where is Frivoulouz? Haven't seen Sleepy here either for a while.
A-Team was driven out by the rise in relentless off-topic posts in important threads like this one, and Sleepy deleted his account b/c of a disagreement about political posts.

Latest GFS goes bonkers with the Beaufort High:


In the GEFS it reaches a peak of 1037mb, and because of the way that Tropicaltidbits displays the highs, most of the members' peak pressure is probably higher than this because of varying time and location.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #693 on: April 09, 2017, 05:38:04 AM »
Well, with so many excitable followers it almost impossible not to stray off topic. Especially online where a sense of etiquette ia often missing. Anyway, a little patience never harms.

On topic. An amoeba  of lows is swallowing a high...beaufort is on for some sunny skies...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #694 on: April 09, 2017, 05:58:55 AM »
An interesting development on Uni-Bremen concentration.
Left to right 6th-8th April

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #695 on: April 09, 2017, 09:16:00 AM »
Open water (as far as AMSR2 is concerned) is appearing in the Beaufort Sea at almost exactly the same time as last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221357
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #696 on: April 09, 2017, 10:36:36 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies (Climate Reanalyzer). Second storm over Bering Sea is more powerful than first and entering the Arctic over Chukchi Peninsula next weekend. Therefore anomalies +20 °C over Chukchi Sea and ESS next weekend and high over Beaufort (1,047). Image: temp anomaly forecast for Sunday, Apr 16.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #697 on: April 09, 2017, 11:28:23 AM »
Open water (as far as AMSR2 is concerned) is appearing in the Beaufort Sea at almost exactly the same time as last year:


Almost same level as June 25th 2013.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #698 on: April 09, 2017, 12:02:11 PM »
The (relatively) lower temps are showing up on the DMI chart, nearing the mean for only the second time this year.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #699 on: April 09, 2017, 12:14:58 PM »
Those storms in the North Pacific are going to cause even larger drops in the Okhotsk and Bering. The ice in the Okhotsk has already been pushed away from the coast quite some ways, which is rather uncommon for this time of year, in the past decade at least (with the possible exception of 2014).

And then that high over the Beaufort Sea is going to pull away the ice from the American coast (thanks for that animation, JayW).

So, given the low temperatures and the situation on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, the rate of extent decrease is going to remain slow for a while, but there's actually going to be a lot of damage on the Pacific side of the Arctic.
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