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JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1250 on: May 13, 2017, 02:31:48 PM »
I'm not sure the Beaufort is in much better shape than last year.  The Pacific side as a whole looks awful vulnerable to me.

May 13 comparison of 2016 and 2017.

Suomi VIIRS imagery from the puffin feeder site at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images
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iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1251 on: May 13, 2017, 03:00:26 PM »
Same Scene, different source, TOPAZ4 + a comparison with 2016 & 2012
Taken as an assemblage, I'd say they also portend the appearance of extensive melt ponds on the Pacific side, from the Amundsen Gulf all the way to the ESS.
   ....

Sure looks that way.  As the snow line advances northwards, cloud cover is forecast to be low at times over much of Beaufort, Chukchi, and eastern ESS.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1252 on: May 13, 2017, 05:22:05 PM »
Charctic has been following 2007 melt quite closely for the last 2 months.
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Koop in VA

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1253 on: May 13, 2017, 06:20:20 PM »
Unless I'm mistaken, it looks like the ice has been blown away from Nome's shore.

http://www.visitnomealaska.com/nome-cam/

Perhaps not too surprising given that the temp there is about the same as it is where I live (Virginia).

According to WorldView there is still a bit lingering nearby and it may be blown back but it will be short lived.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1254 on: May 13, 2017, 11:36:11 PM »
I keep wondering: will the debris from this breakup clog Nares Strait or will it just flush through? So far, it is flowing smoothly. Observe the 10th- 13th. CLICK IMAGE

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1255 on: May 14, 2017, 04:26:41 AM »
I keep wondering: will the debris from this breakup clog Nares Strait or will it just flush through? So far, it is flowing smoothly.
I was wondering about that, and I suppose higher SSTAs that can be seen, may make a smooth passage more likely if they are the norm.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2017, 04:38:42 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1256 on: May 14, 2017, 05:29:44 AM »
7 day forecast of mean anomaly 2m temps

see http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1257 on: May 14, 2017, 05:46:28 AM »
Would that we could trust weather forecasts a week out (anywhere!).  There might be some warm 2m temperatures in the CAB in 6 or 7 days. (from the ASI Graphs page)
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1258 on: May 14, 2017, 08:09:15 AM »
7 day forecast of mean anomaly 2m temps


High temps also forecasted by earth.nullschool. On Thursday +18.2 °C forecasted over Mackenzie River delta, right next to Beaufort Sea. Even higher temps for Friday, May 19. How much ice and snow can survive?

Phil.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1259 on: May 14, 2017, 01:21:47 PM »
I keep wondering: will the debris from this breakup clog Nares Strait or will it just flush through? So far, it is flowing smoothly. Observe the 10th- 13th. CLICK IMAGE


Starting to move through this morning:
https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017134074000-2017134074500.250m.jpg

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1260 on: May 14, 2017, 01:50:52 PM »
In about two days' time, the first Arctic Basin storm of the 2017 melt season will also provide the first test by wind for the allegedly thin ice in the Laptev Sea. It's forecast to bottom out at about 984 hPa. Nullschool...
« Last Edit: May 14, 2017, 01:58:31 PM by slow wing »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1261 on: May 14, 2017, 02:24:01 PM »
Speaking about thin ice. The latest report on the Meereisportal site confirms that first-year ice is thinner than it was in previous years (no measurable changes in MYI thickness):

Quote
AWI Meereisforscher haben im März und April mehrere Messkampagnen in der Arktis geleitet, um aktuelle Informationen über den Zustand des Meereises in der hohen Arktis zu gewinnen, was ein wichtiger Parameter zur Beurteilung von Meereisveränderungen ist. Die Ergebnisse zeigen grundsätzlich, dass sich insbesondere die Dicke des einjährigen Eises gegenüber den Vorjahren etwas verringert hat. Dies ist vermutlich auf die höheren mittleren Lufttemperaturen im Verlauf des vergangenen Winters zurückzuführen. Damit wird das Eis sehr empfindlich auf das Wetter im Sommer reagieren, und ein sehr stärkerer Eisrückgang als in den Vorjahren ist bei ähnlichen Wetterbedingungen nicht unwahrscheinlich. Im Gegensatz zum einjährigen Eis konnten Dickenänderungen des mehrjährigen Eises nicht eindeutig beobachtet werden.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1262 on: May 14, 2017, 05:57:24 PM »
I keep wondering: will the debris from this breakup clog Nares Strait or will it just flush through? So far, it is flowing smoothly. Observe the 10th- 13th. CLICK IMAGE


Starting to move through this morning:
https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017134074000-2017134074500.250m.jpg
Those big pieces are breaking down way too easy. The same thing is happening in the Fram, as the ice moves into it. The melt season is just starting. Imagine how the ice will crumble in a few weeks from now.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1263 on: May 14, 2017, 05:58:09 PM »
Speaking about thin ice. The latest report on the Meereisportal site confirms that first-year ice is thinner than it was in previous years (no measurable changes in MYI thickness):

Quote
AWI Meereisforscher haben im März und April mehrere Messkampagnen in der Arktis geleitet, um aktuelle Informationen über den Zustand des Meereises in der hohen Arktis zu gewinnen, was ein wichtiger Parameter zur Beurteilung von Meereisveränderungen ist. Die Ergebnisse zeigen grundsätzlich, dass sich insbesondere die Dicke des einjährigen Eises gegenüber den Vorjahren etwas verringert hat. Dies ist vermutlich auf die höheren mittleren Lufttemperaturen im Verlauf des vergangenen Winters zurückzuführen. Damit wird das Eis sehr empfindlich auf das Wetter im Sommer reagieren, und ein sehr stärkerer Eisrückgang als in den Vorjahren ist bei ähnlichen Wetterbedingungen nicht unwahrscheinlich. Im Gegensatz zum einjährigen Eis konnten Dickenänderungen des mehrjährigen Eises nicht eindeutig beobachtet werden.

not measurable is an important detail and what matters is that there is a lot less MYI. all that together tells the whole tail as to where we're headed, independently of when exactly what will happen which is hard to predict.
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1264 on: May 14, 2017, 11:29:46 PM »
The Lincoln Sea is being hit by a double-whammy the Nares Strait having its small suction area to capture sea ice which is calving in expanding crescents from the mouth of the strait.

The Fram Strait has a far, far bigger suction area than the Nares Strait but the same caving of sea ice will happen there too as the sea ice is too thin and weak. Yet, the case for the Fram Strait is more complicated due to the very wide spatial spread of the suction. The Nares Strait has very local thing with a small calving front radius from the mouth of the strait, wind directions and sea currents run parallel (homogenous factor), but in case of the Fram Strait its very large spatial reach (of the suction area) means that different parts of the affected area can be differently influenced by the winds and currents (i.e. while the wind might push ice north on the western shores of the strait, on the eastern shores the wind may point to the east if not even south. This complication randomizes the calving ice front there to a more irregular calving front with fractures and fissures going to all directions as a result.

I cannot say whether heterogeneity of factors of the suction area of Fram speeds ice loss or reduces the overall calving or if is just fluctuating randomly between the two (i.e. with too much noise from other factors to differentiate one from another). But overall, the reach of that suction zone and its calving area goes far, far beyond that of Nares Strait - even affected by Coriolis.

(Let's try that again)

This is new...

Lincoln Sea. Yesterday an unbroken sheet. Today, cracked-up all the way down to Nares. Don't think We've ever seen it do that before, least of all in early May.
A follow-up to the break up at the Nares entrance. Despite the clouds, it is obviously getting progressively worse.



When I pointed out this opening a week ago, the many "Experts" sent me to the Nares' thread.
Basic physics & common sense seems better guidance than peer- reviewed, paid-for-and-politically-filtered Articles.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2017, 11:38:59 PM by VeliAlbertKallio »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1265 on: May 15, 2017, 01:46:21 AM »
In about two days' time, the first Arctic Basin storm of the 2017 melt season will also provide the first test by wind for the allegedly thin ice in the Laptev Sea. It's forecast to bottom out at about 984 hPa. Nullschool...

'Allegedly' thin ice in the Laptev has put on a sad face in anticipation   8)

vigilius

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1266 on: May 15, 2017, 01:59:17 AM »
My eyes keep getting drawn to this area on the west coast of Banks Island. The ice keeps pulling away, there's now a lead of about 50 miles width, I am watching for signs of refreezing. Should I expect much refreezing at this time of year? Images from Worldview, May 1-14. Click to view.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1267 on: May 15, 2017, 03:00:18 AM »
Temperatures near Banks Island are not favorable for refreezing now. Huge amounts of insolation combined with slightly below to slightly above 0C temps are hostile to ice. There will be periods over the next 2 weeks where temperatures will drop to negative 5 to negative 10 C but they will be cancelled out by the high amount of insolation and the seasonal warming trend.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 03:21:52 AM by FishOutofWater »

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1268 on: May 15, 2017, 03:10:36 AM »
My eyes keep getting drawn to this area on the west coast of Banks Island. The ice keeps pulling away, there's now a lead of about 50 miles width, I am watching for signs of refreezing. Should I expect much refreezing at this time of year? Images from Worldview, May 1-14. Click to view.
Not at the moment. Look up eight posts, where the Nullschool figure shows a green swathe around that area, indicating the encroachment of temperatures above zero degrees Celsius.

EDIT: FishOutofWater beat me to it, showing it even more clearly.

PS. that gif is spectacular, thanks Vigilius. The Beaufort Sea ice is already breaking up and looking to melt outwards from its Amundsen Gulf corner, and it's only mid-May.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 07:55:36 AM by slow wing »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1269 on: May 15, 2017, 03:35:58 AM »
I quickly updated my comment above with more accurate details. Please note that temperatures will be considerably above normal around the Beaufort high for the next few days.

Moreover the CFS weekly forecasts are for high pressure and warm temperatures to build over the Beaufort and central Arctic over the next few weeks.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1270 on: May 15, 2017, 03:36:49 AM »
The upcoming pattern being forecast by the EPS and GEFS (ensemble means of the GFS and ECMWF) are disastrous starting at D6. The CFSv2 has been hinting at a strong +AD type pattern at this time period for a while, but now the operational medium range models are on board as well. If these verify, it would serve to jump start the melting season and generate lots of late May melt ponding.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1271 on: May 15, 2017, 04:07:48 AM »
The upcoming pattern being forecast by the EPS and GEFS (ensemble means of the GFS and ECMWF) are disastrous starting at D6. The CFSv2 has been hinting at a strong +AD type pattern at this time period for a while, but now the operational medium range models are on board as well. If these verify, it would serve to jump start the melting season and generate lots of late May melt ponding.
If DMI and HYCOM are correct the AK/Pac/eastern Asian sides of the Arctic should all see wide areas of open water by the end of the month, and by the 20th, everything under 80N on those sides is also going to begin fracturing into oblivion.

Meanwhile, Nares is already actively transporting out some of the thickest ice in the CAB.



Some of the models are beginning to show a surge of cyclonic activity affecting the Asian peripheral seas as well, if we see anything substantial impact Kara/surrounds it could result in a sudden loss of the relatively thin ice over most of that area/the ice N of Svalbard. I would suspect as open water begins increasing along the Siberian coastline, the thermal loading of the Arctic will allow just that to occur, though it may take another few weeks.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1272 on: May 15, 2017, 06:22:28 AM »
vigilius thanks for the animation. It's been refreezing over and over, until it stopped a few days ago - an important phase change. Now area can start dropping with continued movement.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1273 on: May 15, 2017, 06:42:02 AM »
Speaking of the relative soda straw that is the Nares. The first image below is a current still of the entire straight - click if you want to zoom in. The second is an animation from 4/28 to 5/14 of Kane Basin (at bottom of the straight). Check out the movement of the big slab - notice i didn't say big block  ::).  Wondering how that slab will fare given the favorable-for-export winds that are forecasted. Also at the end of the animation, notice the comparison between 4/28 and 5/14 - lots of slush ice seems to have melted and/or made its way out.

Edit: I had to compress the gif more so that it would play i guess 6mbs is too big for this site? The gif compressor app removed the loop so it won't start over from the beginning.  If you want to see it again you'll have to right click on it and open it in a new browser tab to restart the animation.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 08:25:54 AM by Ice Shieldz »

TerryM

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1274 on: May 15, 2017, 07:11:15 AM »
IceS


Very nice gif showing the Kane gyre. IIRC Nares only handles 1/10 of the flow out of Fram, but it drags from the thickest of Lincoln Sea ice.


Terry

cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1275 on: May 15, 2017, 07:38:46 AM »
Would that we could trust weather forecasts a week out (anywhere!).  There might be some warm 2m temperatures in the CAB in 6 or 7 days. (from the ASI Graphs page)

You don't live in California, I take it.  The weather forecasts for summer days, particularly in desert regions, are often accurate years in advance.  Anecdotally, at the beginning of May I looked up when it would rain, and the prediction has been holding steady:  The morning of the 16th.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1276 on: May 15, 2017, 07:43:20 AM »
Terry – Fascinating that there is a named gyre there in that small area. Is it generated by the north to south currents and the widening then narrowing of the straight?

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1277 on: May 15, 2017, 12:21:59 PM »
The upcoming pattern being forecast by the EPS and GEFS (ensemble means of the GFS and ECMWF) are disastrous starting at D6. The CFSv2 has been hinting at a strong +AD type pattern at this time period for a while, but now the operational medium range models are on board as well. If these verify, it would serve to jump start the melting season and generate lots of late May melt ponding.

May 31 - high pressure and only small areas below freezing. Image: tropicaltidbits.com
Interesting, but disturbing.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1278 on: May 15, 2017, 12:55:49 PM »
The upcoming pattern being forecast by the EPS and GEFS (ensemble means of the GFS and ECMWF) are disastrous starting at D6. The CFSv2 has been hinting at a strong +AD type pattern at this time period for a while, but now the operational medium range models are on board as well. If these verify, it would serve to jump start the melting season and generate lots of late May melt ponding.

May 31 - high pressure and only small areas below freezing. Image: tropicaltidbits.com
Interesting, but disturbing.
The surface melting / melt pond radar wake up this morning. From the time being, clear change in the blueish tonality of the 7-2-1 Terra images brought to us by the still working NASA. I put a transition of image from April 30 directly to May 15, to better appreciate the change.
Not sure, but I think from other years what we are watching is rather wet snow over the fast ice, plus some fresh water pouring at the coasts, result of the melt of adjacent hills and mountains, that are showing bare of snow in some places near the coasts.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1279 on: May 15, 2017, 01:09:42 PM »
Let's try using the long-range weekly CFS-v2 predictions. I bring the 1st and 2nd weeks of May. I will repeat this in the future only if these predictions really make sense (they did for April!)
According to these maps, 1. we should see some more drift in Beaufort sea this first week of May and the next. 2. During the second week, that dome of high pressure mentioned before, pulling heat from America and pushing ice toward the Atlantic.
3. Temperatures should be anomalously warm in Siberia, then we get the heat fro the American side associated to that high pressure system by the second week.4. Positive anomalies dominate, certainly in Siberia, 5. certainly not in the Central Arctic.
That the peripheral seas are warm especially the Pacific side does not mean it will be sunny. No cloudiness predictions here. 6. But polynya near the coasts should begin to stay open at both sides.
Note that these forecasts are mean values of different simulations, therefore get diluted with time.
Maps Courtesy of Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits.com
Assessing how well the CFSv2 bi-weekly forecast worked out for the Arctic, I'd say it passed the test, at least the big picture that I commented. We've got first hints of surface melting in Siberian coast, wider leads and cracks in Beaufort that are not refreezing anymore, a lot of transport toward the Atlantic (the extent, with the permission of M&M, has actually grown and is at maximum values in Greenland+Baffin+Barentsz), the central Arctic has remained cold as shown in the DMI 80N, which makes sense given the pattern of winds.
I'l try to put together a couple of gifs of the forecast for the next two weeks this afternoon, although many good commenters are already giving the key hints of what to expect.

TerryM

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1280 on: May 15, 2017, 01:55:03 PM »
Terry – Fascinating that there is a named gyre there in that small area. Is it generated by the north to south currents and the widening then narrowing of the straight?


In general I think you're correct. Remember that Nares flows in both directions and that the Coriolis effect pulls everything in the arctic to the right. Hall basin, at the end of Petermann Fjord has an even stronger gyre IIRC.


Dr Muenchow, who posts here from time to time is the authoritative voice on Nares Strait - or so I believe.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1281 on: May 15, 2017, 02:09:35 PM »
The HP domination mentioned above by Lord M Vader wil -  according to GFS and ClimateReanalyzer - feature an interesting side show: The great snow cover massacre. The last days of a polar snow flake.

A heartbreaker.  :'(

Should get the melt season finally going methinks. Fist image 12th May, second image 20th (best compared in new tab)
Really stunning pictures, to me. ESAS open for full 2 motnhs of maximum insolation, among other things? And pacific side as a whole, it just looks like some god just took huge sword and cut big chunk of ice and snow cover off, on that 20th May picture. Never seen anything like it.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1282 on: May 15, 2017, 03:04:56 PM »
My apologies for posting almost thrice in a row.
Next two weeks, week-averaged values of MSLP (with anomalies) and T2M anomaly according to the long-range CFS-v2 model. So let's put more stuff and make the model fail bad!
Images courtesy of Levi Cowan at Tropicaltidbits.com
Week 1: There is a HP pattern relatively similar as past week (CAA-CAB-Greenland) although the blue color indicates that the highs weaken in average. Around this system, there is a ring of lows, especially close in Laptev and Alaska, that force similar circulation from America into the CAB and then toward the Barents sea. Strong wings over Beaufort coast continue for a few days according to ECMWF, but the CFS-v2 indicates that this pattern should gradually fade out, otherwise in average the map would not make sense.
Temperatures in Eastern Siberia, Alaska, and North Canada remain anomalously warm. I expect a big drop in snow cover this week in this areas, not just the following week.
For the DMI 80N lovers, it however may take some days for its anomaly to become positive again.
Week 2: The forecast of a high pressure dominating the basin is clear. However, how this plays later can differ a lot depending on the real positioning of the HP and its specific strength, if and how it couples with a low and in what direction...
In this case, the CFS-v2 predicts anomalously high temperatures practically all above the Arctic circle, (that is above lat N66 approx). Huge drop of snow cover overall. And I mean all, land and ice. Chilly in Europe and somewhere in the U.S.
Heck, I so much want to see this fail badly!!!!
« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 11:56:27 PM by seaicesailor »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1283 on: May 15, 2017, 05:44:37 PM »
I wonder if we need a name for the day ~125 drop in DMI >80'N temp from above to below the mean.

this is present in 9 of the last 11 years (with exceptions in 2016 and 2008 (though an argument could be made for the latter).

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1284 on: May 15, 2017, 06:01:45 PM »
I noticed that too. I wonder if there is a real physical phenomena behind this or is it an artifact of the measure.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1285 on: May 15, 2017, 06:04:19 PM »
. .. re the drop below mean dmi 80 .. I call it 260K day .. usually close to day 120 .. I was anticipating it this year .. and on cue .. funny that a week or so ago it was supposed to raining by now at the pole . This time of year gfs especially tends to head into fantasy land with regard to Arctic Ocean 2m temps in the second week of forecast . I hope the trend remains this year ...
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1286 on: May 15, 2017, 06:10:59 PM »
I noticed that too. I wonder if there is a real physical phenomena behind this or is it an artifact of the measure.
Because it coicides with spring time and a weather pattern that tends to force cold wind across the Arctic Basin toward the Fram and Svalbard? It is not a exact science, but there might be a correlation. If the weather pattern is more frequent lately than in the past century...
Last year it did not cross but it was close.
Later in July August expect again negative anomaly esp this year with so much FYI... I bet! At least while we dont end up with a blue Arctic

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1287 on: May 15, 2017, 07:27:44 PM »
The ECMWF is forecasting high pressure and warm weather over the Beaufort sea. It's not just the GFS that is predicting sunny warmth in the Beaufort and cool storminess over the Barents sea.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1288 on: May 15, 2017, 07:43:09 PM »
The ensemble model of the ECMWF is in very good agreement with the GFS model 10 days out. I suspect that they are both picking up a large scale physical process, namely strong atmospheric subsidence over the Beaufort sea.

Subsidence over the Beaufort sea in late May is consistent with climatology. Moreover, some studies suggest that it may be enhanced by climate change.


romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1289 on: May 15, 2017, 09:19:12 PM »
Meanwhile new cracks emerging over Lincoln Sea. I prepared animation May 9 - May 15 (Worldview). I posted it here 2017 melting season as we are directly losing thick multiyear ice (other option is Nares Strait thread).

bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1290 on: May 15, 2017, 10:26:46 PM »
It's also evident from the latest Lincoln pictures - see http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php - that there is a slumping of a lot of ice to the north of Ellesmere Is., towards Nares. That doesn't show up in the Worldview shots.

Compare http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/20170514s01b.ASAR.jpg and http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/20170515s01b.ASAR.jpg between browser tabs.

The flow down Nares appears to be strong with no sign of the chunks of ice forming another arch.

There is a triangle of stationary ice at the top of Greenland, and the flow of ice towards Fram appears to have stopped (the line across the top of the picture).

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1291 on: May 15, 2017, 11:41:27 PM »
I noticed that too. I wonder if there is a real physical phenomena behind this or is it an artifact of the measure.
Because it coicides with spring time and a weather pattern that tends to force cold wind across the Arctic Basin toward the Fram and Svalbard? It is not a exact science, but there might be a correlation. If the weather pattern is more frequent lately than in the past century...
Last year it did not cross but it was close.
Later in July August expect again negative anomaly esp this year with so much FYI... I bet! At least while we dont end up with a blue Arctic

In Spring the weather changes.  This happens every year with the same unstable systemic behavior we are seeing globally as the temperatures rise.  When it starts to warm up the weather becomes unstable and unpredictable -- both every year and every climatic warm spell.

Basically, we are seeking a new attractor...whether by the year or by the eon.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1292 on: May 16, 2017, 01:48:07 AM »
The ice drifting away from Banks Island, the latest layer that had appeared shrinks while drifting. We can't be sure it is melting strictly speaking, it may be being compacted, what is sure is that is leaving room to open waters very quickly.

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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1294 on: May 16, 2017, 05:24:01 AM »
Ouch!!!
CLICK IMAGE
ZOOM
Second GIF May 5th vs. May 15th

« Last Edit: May 16, 2017, 05:36:39 AM by Tigertown »

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1295 on: May 16, 2017, 06:37:05 AM »
Ouch!!!
CLICK IMAGE
ZOOM
Second GIF May 5th vs. May 15th



Interesting! The Arctic is moving to the Atlantic zone. The pacific side decreases while atlantic increases. It will be interesting to see the 1/4 pacific sea water is open while the atlantic side remains frozen at the end of May. However, once the atlantic ocean heats up in July and August, those ice will be killed in a short time.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1296 on: May 16, 2017, 08:35:21 AM »
The ice drifting away from Banks Island, the latest layer that had appeared shrinks while drifting. We can't be sure it is melting strictly speaking, it may be being compacted, what is sure is that is leaving room to open waters very quickly.
That latest layer was formed since the 7. May. Nearby Sachs Harbour http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=10076 reports max and min temperatures (oC):
9th     -6.1  -15.0
12th   -3.5    -9.0
13th   -3.0  -12.0
14th   -0.4    -6.1
That would make some melting possible depending on preexisting water temperatures and input from the low but now 24h sun. But the images you post certainly show the absence of freezing. forecasts are for max around -1.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1297 on: May 16, 2017, 10:06:29 AM »
That coming heatwave + open skies is going to do massive damage on the Pacific Side of the Arctic. And as soon as the Atlantic side comes into play as well, I expect 2017 to go low on all SIE and SIA graphs. The only question is whether it can overtake 2016 before it went up (end of June), or go a lot lower than 2012 before it started to drop very fast (end of July). Those are going to be exciting/interesting weeks.
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1298 on: May 16, 2017, 10:27:58 AM »
Those are going to be exciting/interesting weeks.

June 1 doesn't look better - high pressure over Beaufort Sea and extremely high temps over Canada and Alaska. Image: tropicaltidbits.com.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1299 on: May 16, 2017, 11:35:31 AM »
That coming heatwave + open skies is going to do massive damage on the Pacific Side of the Arctic. And as soon as the Atlantic side comes into play as well, I expect 2017 to go low on all SIE and SIA graphs. The only question is whether it can overtake 2016 before it went up (end of June), or go a lot lower than 2012 before it started to drop very fast (end of July). Those are going to be exciting/interesting weeks.
A question I have Neven, how do you know when to expect clear skies? Is because of the dominant high pressure system alone or you see any other indication?