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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1300 on: May 16, 2017, 01:09:41 PM »
Yes, high pressure invariably indicates open skies. That's how it works.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1301 on: May 16, 2017, 02:58:58 PM »
Jaxa AMSR2 volume finally showing a real drop in volume. A blip or the shape of things to come ?

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iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1302 on: May 16, 2017, 03:09:55 PM »
   .... IIRC Nares only handles 1/10 of the flow out of Fram, but it drags from the thickest of Lincoln Sea ice.

Any idea how Nares compares with Fram on volume basis?
Looks like Nares export (on any measure) will be unusually large this year, owing to lack of arch formation.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1303 on: May 16, 2017, 03:15:58 PM »
...
In this case, the CFS-v2 predicts anomalously high temperatures practically all above the Arctic circle, (that is above lat N66 approx). Huge drop of snow cover overall. And I mean all, land and ice. Chilly in Europe and somewhere in the U.S.
Heck, I so much want to see this fail badly!!!!
You and me both!!!

But seeing how extremely unusual and widespread "cold export" from Arctic to temperate belt all over NH was, last few weeks, i guess our wish may well be not granted. This massive and lasting cold anomaly all over continents gotta have consequences of similarly massive and lasting heat "somewhere else", and so far it seems Arctic is indeed the place to be hit by it, me thinks... :(

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1304 on: May 16, 2017, 03:23:20 PM »
Jaxa AMSR2 volume finally showing a real drop in volume. A blip or the shape of things to come ?
I'm no sensor specialist, but to me that drop and also that rise directly prior - both seems much like artifacts of the system. I wouldn't be surprised if more than half of that rise and correspondedly more than half of that drop wouldn't exist in real world; seems things just returned to their trajectory now. You know?

It's most complex conditions right now in many places in peripheral seas. Things start to melt, break, certainly re-freeze in many areas also takes place, it's definitely one physical hell to calculate volume in such conditions any precisely.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2017, 03:30:13 PM by F.Tnioli »

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1305 on: May 16, 2017, 03:35:33 PM »

But seeing how extremely unusual and widespread "cold export" from Arctic to temperate belt all over NH was, last few weeks, i guess our wish may well be not granted. This massive and lasting cold anomaly all over continents gotta have consequences of similarly massive and lasting heat "somewhere else", and so far it seems Arctic is indeed the place to be hit by it, me thinks... :(
[/quote]

Not just the last few weeks. In Central- Eastern Europe we had 2 months of hard "Winter", which was unprecedented in the last 30 Years or so.
If we have 2 months of hard Summer up in the High Arctic for (heat) exchange...

bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1306 on: May 16, 2017, 04:12:52 PM »
Any idea how Nares compares with Fram on volume basis?
Looks like Nares export (on any measure) will be unusually large this year, owing to lack of arch formation.

Looking at the export over the last couple of days at start of the Robeson Channel (see gif) I estimate about 500 km^2 exported per day (each of the big rectangular blocks are around 20k x 10k). If the ice is 2m thick that is about 1 km^3 per day.

Assuming that we have an additional 2 month's flow through Nares compared to previous years, that is an additional 60 km^3 lost which is, very roughly, about 2-3% of the total ice volume in September.

So it's not very significant; but could make an impact in the thickest area.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1307 on: May 16, 2017, 04:22:34 PM »
Ice around Wrangel Island is no pack but a sea of ice cubes. Will we see the same in the central basin as the season progresses?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1308 on: May 16, 2017, 04:38:52 PM »
I bet we will, at least a bit. Not for the 1st time, too. Question is how much of it, though. If you meant whether _whole_ CAB would be that way - then i don't think so. Some solid fields spared by warmest currents gotta survive.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1309 on: May 16, 2017, 04:47:01 PM »
Yes, high pressure invariably indicates open skies. That's how it works.
I disagree, keeping an eye on observation buoys like Obuoy14 I have found examples of higher pressure days with cloudier shy than lower pressure days. Maybe that is because I am talking of two or three day periods, but it would mean the word "invariably" should be avoided.
I don't claim any expertise in meteorology, but the correlation is clearly not straightforward.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1310 on: May 16, 2017, 05:17:36 PM »
Any idea how Nares compares with Fram on volume basis?
Looks like Nares export (on any measure) will be unusually large this year, owing to lack of arch formation.

Looking at the export over the last couple of days at start of the Robeson Channel (see gif) I estimate about 500 km^2 exported per day (each of the big rectangular blocks are around 20k x 10k). If the ice is 2m thick that is about 1 km^3 per day.

Assuming that we have an additional 2 month's flow through Nares compared to previous years, that is an additional 60 km^3 lost which is, very roughly, about 2-3% of the total ice volume in September.

So it's not very significant; but could make an impact in the thickest area.
bairgon, thanks for the analysis. I think these floes are suposedly closer to 4m thick than to 2m thick, so maybe it's double the volume exported.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1311 on: May 16, 2017, 05:25:40 PM »
....
bairgon, thanks for the analysis. I think these floes are suposedly closer to 4m thick than to 2m thick, so maybe it's double the volume exported.

measurements taken by scientists on the ice in that area show a mean thickness of 3m
http://blogs.esa.int/campaignearth/2017/05/01/cryovex-first-results-show-sea-ice-continues-to-thin/

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1312 on: May 16, 2017, 06:43:31 PM »
Cold air was displaced to northern Europe and southern Canada but overall the NH was pretty warm for the last 30 days. Weak trade winds have led to a warm up of the tropical and subtropical waters of the NH. It has been very warm in north Africa.

The final collapse of the stratospheric polar vortex displaced the cold air towards Murmansk.

The net effect is to enhance the dipole that blows ice towards the Fram strait


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1313 on: May 16, 2017, 06:54:02 PM »
Ice around Wrangel Island is no pack but a sea of ice cubes. Will we see the same in the central basin as the season progresses?
Yes, it may be broken in huge floes, but an unpacked pack in any case.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1314 on: May 16, 2017, 06:58:31 PM »
Cold air was displaced to northern Europe and southern Canada but overall the NH was pretty warm for the last 30 days. Weak trade winds have led to a warm up of the tropical and subtropical waters of the NH. It has been very warm in north Africa.

The final collapse of the stratospheric polar vortex displaced the cold air towards Murmansk.

The net effect is to enhance the dipole that blows ice towards the Fram strait
Will be interesting to see whether Hudson Bay holds on longer than usual this year, ice seems to be holding up well compared to recent years and the last month of anomalies certainly didn't hurt its potential to endure the summer heat.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1315 on: May 16, 2017, 08:14:55 PM »
EOSDIS shows extensive ponding on the eastern side of the Hudson already, matched only by 2014. The forecast is for colder temps over the next 3-4 days, but a sharp warmup to blowtorch weather shortly after that.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1316 on: May 16, 2017, 08:39:44 PM »
Hycom forecast is showing the thick ice off Ellesmere/Greenland coasts cracking and moving away again in a few days.

StopTheApocalypse

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1317 on: May 17, 2017, 01:35:03 AM »
Pretty dominant high pressure system forecasted by GFS starts in around 5 days and sticks around for a while. Should be fun.

Edit: The image below is 150h.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 01:41:38 AM by StopTheApocalypse »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1318 on: May 17, 2017, 02:19:02 AM »
The first signs of sogginess on the fast ice off the Mackenzie Delta:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#Beaufort
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guygee

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1319 on: May 17, 2017, 04:02:49 AM »
   .... IIRC Nares only handles 1/10 of the flow out of Fram, but it drags from the thickest of Lincoln Sea ice.

Any idea how Nares compares with Fram on volume basis?
Looks like Nares export (on any measure) will be unusually large this year, owing to lack of arch formation.
From R. Kwok, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L03502, doi:10.1029/2009GL041872, 2010, full paper link,
rkwok.jpl.nasa.gov/publications/Kwok.2010.GRL.pdf
"... In 2007, ice arches failed to form. This resulted in the highest outflow of Arctic sea ice in the 13‐year record between 1997 and 2009. The 2007 area and volume outflows of 87 × 10 3 km 2 and 254 km 3 are more than twice their 13‐year means. This contributes to the recent loss of the thick, multiyear Arctic sea ice and represents ∼10% of our estimates of the mean ice export at Fram Strait"
Presumably the 10% figure often quoted applies to volumetric flow, although there is large annual variance.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 04:09:23 AM by guygee »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1320 on: May 17, 2017, 04:51:55 AM »
That's a great find guygee, I got to tell you guys, there is no other place I know of outside of university where such obscure questions can be answered and shared so readily!  keep up the great work guys!!!

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jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1321 on: May 17, 2017, 08:18:28 AM »
From the IJIS thread, SIE down nearly a century today, and the GFS model shows high pressure building over the Pacific side of the Arctic and expanding to cover most of the basin over the next two weeks.  Add also, temperatures warming over much of the region to near or above freezing.

Pretty much, perfect weather to accelerate melt pond formation and a rapid slide into extensive early surface melt.

Tropical Tidbits link for reference and the curious.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017051700&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=208
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1322 on: May 17, 2017, 08:44:04 AM »
On the siberian coast near Wrangel island, Pevek has been seeing Temperatures up to 6C. The area is starting to loose snow cover (similar timing to last year, which started to show bare landfast ice at this time) with more warm weather forecast. Sun on land will warm the air quickly.
The ice east of Wrangel is certainly much thinner than last year when it had been compacted by the persistent movement from Beaufort. I expect it to melt out much sooner than last year. What effect that will have further north is the big question.
But as a guess I think the same effect of less compaction over winter could play a role there. Last year some older ice made it alll the way from Beaufort to north of Wrangel where ice persisted to the end of the melting season. This hasn't been the case this year.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1323 on: May 17, 2017, 09:52:44 AM »

Pretty much, perfect weather to accelerate melt pond formation and a rapid slide into extensive early surface melt.


I prepared small table - forecasted pressure near Beaufort Sea until June 2 (tropicaltidbits.com).

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1324 on: May 17, 2017, 11:13:09 AM »
ESS, Chuckchi, Laptev rubble...
Meanwhile the Nares Opening seems to be cracking open the MYI in the CAB like an egg's crust.

All this, before Peak Insolation hits... Not to mention storms traveling up the Arctic in the latest Melt Seasons.
 One or two GACs and we're effed.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1325 on: May 17, 2017, 01:04:04 PM »
Wherever dispersal is possible the ice seems ready to break along a grid of fracture lines, kind of fractal in that the lines of differently spaced from area to area in a region. I've added an image from around FJI on may 13 which reminds me a bit of the spectacular "tyre treads" posted by ATeam etc on the freezing season thread after a storm. The worrying thing is how the fracture lines can be seen continuing into the pack as it is fed into the Atlantic.

Similar features can be seen on the Pacific side which is what prompted me to post the question of how deep it goes. On the Eurasian side only the landfast ice has any large scale integrity, and presumably thickness, but the winter cold of nearby continent is now raplaced by summer heat. Once September goes close to ice free will ice l struggle to cover the basin from the edges? Hudson Bay might freeze better than the Arctic Ocean?

iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1326 on: May 17, 2017, 01:35:50 PM »
   .... IIRC Nares only handles 1/10 of the flow out of Fram, but it drags from the thickest of Lincoln Sea ice.

Any idea how Nares compares with Fram on volume basis?
Looks like Nares export (on any measure) will be unusually large this year, owing to lack of arch formation.
From R. Kwok, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L03502, doi:10.1029/2009GL041872, 2010, full paper link,
rkwok.jpl.nasa.gov/publications/Kwok.2010.GRL.pdf
"... In 2007, ice arches failed to form. This resulted in the highest outflow of Arctic sea ice in the 13‐year record between 1997 and 2009. The 2007 area and volume outflows of 87 × 10 3 km 2 and 254 km 3 are more than twice their 13‐year means. This contributes to the recent loss of the thick, multiyear Arctic sea ice and represents ∼10% of our estimates of the mean ice export at Fram Strait"
Presumably the 10% figure often quoted applies to volumetric flow, although there is large annual variance.

Interesting, so bairgon's estimate and Oren's adjustment seem to be in the right ballpark.  I suppose this year's total will be lower than 2007's, given less multi-year ice in Lincoln Sea now (though mobility might be higher).

   ....
Assuming that we have an additional 2 month's flow through Nares compared to previous years, that is an additional 60 km^3 lost which is, very roughly, about 2-3% of the total ice volume in September.
   ....
bairgon, thanks for the analysis. I think these floes are supposedly closer to 4m thick than to 2m thick, so maybe it's double the volume exported.

My impression is that volume export this time of year has a disproportionate effect on the September minimum, mainly because it reduces concentration within the pack.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1327 on: May 17, 2017, 01:36:41 PM »
A quote from meddoc's post

"Meanwhile the Nares Opening seems to be cracking open the MYI in the CAB like an egg's crust." (the images are impressive).

My (stupid?) question is "Is there any significant MYI left in the Lincoln Sea?". I ask this as the Jaxa sea ice thickness graph has most of the really thick red-colour-coded stuff north of the Queen Elizabeth Islands and in the channels between those islands.

Stupid question no 2 is will the apparently thinner stuff coming into the Nares strait and eventually  to Baffin Bay be easier to flush out ?

Perhaps this post should be in the Nares Strait thread?

Perhaps iceman has answered my questions while I was writing this post?

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1328 on: May 17, 2017, 02:52:46 PM »
...
measurements taken by scientists on the ice in that area show a mean thickness of 3m
http://blogs.esa.int/campaignearth/2017/05/01/cryovex-first-results-show-sea-ice-continues-to-thin/
I think the ice thickness graph from this publication is worth reproducing.  It shows snow depth and ice thickness along a path starting in the Lincoln Sea and going north, measured 'on the ground' in mid-April 2017.  I wonder if this is representative of snow depths and ice thicknesses across the from-just-north-of-Canada Arctic Ocean.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1329 on: May 17, 2017, 02:53:56 PM »
My impression is that volume export this time of year has a disproportionate effect on the September minimum, mainly because it reduces concentration within the pack.
Via resulting average albedo decrease, you mean? I agree.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1330 on: May 17, 2017, 03:51:00 PM »
"Is there any significant MYI left in the Lincoln Sea?"
Yes, but it's more like ice clinging to land at this point, rather than significant part of the icepack
Quote
will the apparently thinner stuff coming into the Nares strait and eventually to Baffin Bay be easier to flush out ?
Nobody knows. I was trying to see how that would go. If you look at the ice thickness map over time, it looks like thick ice is being sucked down that drain (the Nares), and thinner will follow it. And with SSTs higher than the norm., I suspect it will flush through.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 11:33:26 PM by Thomas Barlow »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1331 on: May 17, 2017, 08:19:39 PM »
HYCOM may have many issues but I think one front where it is particularly useful is in comparing sea surface temperatures.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticsst.html

A few things are interesting to note comparing this year with last year and 2012/others --

1) The tongue of cold SSTs southeast of Newfoundland is more prominent and colder than any recent year besides 2014. Compared to 2012, the change is particularly dramatic. Temperatures immediately SE of Greenland have also decreased this year.

2) Despite this cold in the NW Atlantic, there is a strong area of warmth comprising the Gulf Stream, appearing warmer than usual and extending all the way to the NW of the UK/Scandinavia.

3) On the Pacific side, things are colder than they have been in recent years where the ridiculously resilient ridge had formerly been residing, west of the Rockies.

4) Elsewhere in the Pacific, especially in Barents/Okhotsk, things are *substantially* warmer than normal. In fact, Okhotsk is an order of magnitude warmer than any other year in recent history, and Barents is similar.

I suspect the above will contribute to Pacific-driven warmth melting the Arctic this year. As the extent/area maps already show, we are seeing substantial melt beginning along the coastlines of Alaska and NE Siberia. I expect this will continue as the heating of Okhotsk/Barents much earlier than normal (due to their possibly record-early dearth of sea ice) means that storms approaching from this direction will have much more insolation to take advantage of, and that heat will ultimately be deposited/resolved over the Arctic Ocean -- first Chuchki, Beaufort, ESS, and then the CAB.

While the above isn't too different from the story of the worst years we've seen, it is going to be occurring far earlier than ever before, and impacting an Arctic Basin where thicknesses are thinner than ever before, particularly over the Beaufort Gyre, which has no ice in excess of 2.5M in thickness (contrary to even last year, where 4M+ ice abounded). This means that we may see melt-out approaching the CAB a month or so before years like 2012, which greatly ups the chances of a blue Arctic this year.

The SST changes over the Atlantic would also seem to lend themselves to the potential for enhanced LPs/heat flux over Greenland and the FRAM/et al as the melt season progresses, given the higher SSTs than usual NW of the UK/Scandinavia. The question is when this begins to manifest -- the combination of LPs taking advantage of the warm Pacific SSTs should encourage blocking highs over that sector of the Arctic, and as those get stronger and stronger as more heat accumulates through NHEM summer, I wonder if the strengthening gradient between hot/cold over the NW ATL will favor severe cyclonic activity over Baffin/FRAM/Kara, with the contrast between PAC/ATL perhaps worsening conditions beyond any year we have seen so far.

This also has a few implications for melt season IMO -- we are going to have a sledgehammer impact the ice that normally takes the entirety of summer to thaw/melt, so that may go early, but it still may go relatively slowly. Though it will most definitely go.

On the flipside, the cold Atlantic SSTs and remaining thick ice in Baffin/Hudson will also melt out anyways, but it could easily hold on a month+ longer than normal (IMO). This means that the cliff induced by melt-out of that ice that normally comes in June may come in late July/early August -- holding up area/extent to only slightly lower than normal numbers before a gut-punch comes as all the ice that was going to melt out anyways does so quite rapidly.

Baffin ice could also hold on longer than normal due to the massive export imminent/ongoing through Nares, which is some of the thickest ice in the basin & multi-year to boot. Perhaps some of this makes it through the summer and drifts all the way down past Quebec, jump-starting the freezing season more rapidly than normal for the banks off Newfoundland even?
« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 08:28:28 PM by bbr2314 »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1332 on: May 17, 2017, 08:52:47 PM »
Most of the ice in the Hudson bay, Labrador Sea , and on the east coast of Greenland south of the Denmark Strait has a blueish tinge on Worldview from the recent high temperatures. It wouldn't surprise if they melt out quickly now, particularly considering the warmth and rain predicted over the next week.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1333 on: May 17, 2017, 08:53:51 PM »
Most of the ice in the Hudson bay, Labrador sea Bay, The ice on the coast of Greenland south of the Denmark Strait has a blueish tinge on Worldview from the recent high temperatures. It wouldn't surprise if they melt out quickly now, particularly considering the warmth and rain predicted over the next week.
I agree re: blue-ish tinge, but it is also quite thick -- moreso than in most recent years. Combined with the low SSTs in the vicinity/import from Nares, I think it will prove surprisingly resilient, but I could definitely be wrong!

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1334 on: May 17, 2017, 11:20:31 PM »
Most of the ice in the Hudson bay, Labrador sea Bay, The ice on the coast of Greenland south of the Denmark Strait has a blueish tinge on Worldview from the recent high temperatures. It wouldn't surprise if they melt out quickly now, particularly considering the warmth and rain predicted over the next week.
I agree re: blue-ish tinge, but it is also quite thick -- moreso than in most recent years. Combined with the low SSTs in the vicinity/import from Nares, I think it will prove surprisingly resilient, but I could definitely be wrong!

let's see, i think that thick ice you mention is an illusion. considering the state of the ice in december and parts of january it simply cannot be that thick and certainly not thicker than other years while, of course there are regional alterations each year. IMO there no more really thick ice as compared to previous years.

as to SSTs more early melt = colder surface water while i'm not sure whether that holds in deeper waters and considering that temps of those waters in general, around freezing point, it cannot be that much colder without freezing, especially since salinity is lower in melting zones and where meltwater is reaching from such zones.

my point is that any attempt to paint anything nice or hopeful is in vain, if not always as expected in time, but still in general and even though we all expect something big scale to happen soon, i'm sure the world will be thunder struck despite we all know what's coming.

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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1335 on: May 17, 2017, 11:46:49 PM »
The ECMWF mutated over the last couple of days and shows interesting changes and a fair disagreement with the GFS. Image below is the +120h latest forecast, not that far out. High-latitude snow-covered areas of the continents warmer in general, but the Pacific side esp the Beaufort sea won't be as warm as anticipated by other forecasts.
Coincidentally this is not in total disagreement with the CFSv2 forecast for this week. Then the CFS-v2 anticipated a comeback of strong HP for the following week, but I've got the feeling any model is starting to lose reliability beyond the 5 days as usual... We'll see
« Last Edit: May 18, 2017, 12:11:48 AM by seaicesailor »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1336 on: May 18, 2017, 06:01:05 AM »
Ahh! The difference a day can make.
1.) Hudson Bay
2.) FJL
16th vs. 17th

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1337 on: May 18, 2017, 06:30:10 AM »
I saw this surprising chart on Jim's site. I didn't think 2017 was tracking 2016 in this region, was quite sure it was lagging.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1338 on: May 18, 2017, 10:41:19 AM »
I saw this surprising chart on Jim's site. I didn't think 2017 was tracking 2016 in this region, was quite sure it was lagging.
And just by inspecting 2012 in worldview you may add 2012 to the list of lagging years wrt 2016/2017 ... at least momentarily.
A consequence of this state is that the albedo potential calculated by Nico Sun, --- although remains second in aggregated, cumulative value, far from 2016, and in the middle of the bunch in aggregated, instantaneous value---,  shows negative anomalies along all coasts of the Pacific side (where melting by amplification of solar radiation absorption will be important) while positive in the Atlantic side (when melting by amplification of solar radiation absortpion loses some importance given the heat flux from Atlantic currents).
« Last Edit: May 18, 2017, 01:32:39 PM by seaicesailor »

bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1339 on: May 18, 2017, 10:58:32 AM »
Possibly pertinent to this, and relevant also for the discussions regarding the potential cold anomaly due to export of ice out of the Lincoln sea due to collapse of the arch: I noticed this area of ice on Kane basin being eroded. It almost seems to be melting rather than fragmenting. Does this imply that insolation is already having an effect?

I was also struck but what appear to be a line of fixed items across the basin. Are there small islands here?

Worlview link: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-05-17&z=3&v=-537239.8684391112,-1080127.498859606,-332439.86843911116,-981183.498859606&ab=off&as=2017-05-11&ae=2017-05-17&av=1&al=false

iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1340 on: May 18, 2017, 12:28:05 PM »
Interesting! The Arctic is moving to the Atlantic zone. The pacific side decreases while atlantic increases....
   ....
The net effect is to enhance the dipole that blows ice towards the Fram strait

This was a feature of the 2007 melt season.  The "gear action" of highs and lows seems less pronounced and persistent this year, though overall ice mobility is likely higher.

is there a metric for daily or weekly sea ice mobility anomaly?  this would be very useful when the Arctic turns into a single gyre.

Another broad-brush metric I would like to see is the "center of gravity" of sea ice.  On a volume basis it currently appears to be close to an Atlantic-side extreme for May (perhaps excepting 2007).

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1341 on: May 18, 2017, 01:40:06 PM »
I saw this surprising chart on Jim's site. I didn't think 2017 was tracking 2016 in this region, was quite sure it was lagging.

Compare and contrast. Beaufort open water is behind last year, balanced by Chukchi & ESS ahead of last year:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1342 on: May 18, 2017, 02:07:38 PM »

Compare and contrast. Beaufort open water is behind last year, balanced by Chukchi & ESS ahead of last year:

ESS is also windy/stormy next 186 hours (until at least May 25) according to GFS/Climate Reanalyzer.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1343 on: May 18, 2017, 02:33:55 PM »
I saw this surprising chart on Jim's site. I didn't think 2017 was tracking 2016 in this region, was quite sure it was lagging.

Compare and contrast. Beaufort open water is behind last year, balanced by Chukchi & ESS ahead of last year:

Is there a graph (comparing years) that takes out the CAA and everything else that is not really in the Arctic Ocean?

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1344 on: May 18, 2017, 03:12:06 PM »
Try https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional and check the Central Arctic Basin - by far the largest part, which supposedly is everything that is really the Arctic Ocean.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1345 on: May 18, 2017, 05:30:24 PM »
TB - Wipneus tracks grpahs or Arctic Basin area and extent, which excludes all peripheral seas but includes the seas adjacent to the CAB. I think this is what you are asking for.
Arctic Basin Extent
Arctic Basin Area
There are also direct-view links which I'm having trouble locating just now.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1346 on: May 18, 2017, 06:32:31 PM »
Is there a graph (comparing years) that takes out the CAA and everything else that is not really in the Arctic Ocean?

This is derived from Wipneus' AMSR2 numbers. "Arctic Basin" = CAB + Beaufort + Chukchi + ESS + Laptev:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1347 on: May 18, 2017, 09:18:24 PM »
Meanwhile new cracks over Lincoln Sea. May 16 - May 18. Images: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1348 on: May 19, 2017, 12:35:22 AM »
Corner Alpha 2017
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 12:42:40 AM by jai mitchell »
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are not tri-color bar graphs
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CognitiveBias

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1349 on: May 19, 2017, 01:08:10 AM »
Interesting observation Jai.  Does anyone have thoughts on the significance?