Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2017 melting season  (Read 975242 times)

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1450 on: May 23, 2017, 09:34:20 PM »
I was just considering the temperature anomalies for today over the Beaufort and the CAA.

Yes thats the warmth that got actually strengthened in the newest forecast, and will last for a few days.

magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1814
    • View Profile
    • Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multiple Sklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgia Modular Mobile Computing iOS Software OSX Android Custom Rom Rooted
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1451 on: May 23, 2017, 10:20:01 PM »
Lincoln Sea May 23th 2016 vs 21/21/23 2017. I made a stitch of the 3 days, to make the image as clear as possible with least clouds.

this is a great contribution because it not only shows the ice condition in that regions but stands for most of the rest of the arctic, no matter what the extent currently is. ice has been rubble from last year and due to lack of freezing days/temps has been glued/frozen together only very poorly. further the higher mobility across the board applies further stress to the already non-solid ice cover which later in the melting season will cause rapid disintegration on an unseen scale, at least, provided that the weather will not be "extremely" ice friendly or melting unfriendly. i think that we shall see days where huge areas will fall below the 15% threshold withing a few days which will eventually show as the famous "pooof" effects which in parts we have seen last year already.
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

dnem

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 173
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1452 on: May 23, 2017, 10:25:21 PM »
That's an impressive image sondreb (assuming I'm seeing true ice conditions and not artifacts. Not doubting I am, but I'm not qualified to say.).

StopTheApocalypse

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1453 on: May 23, 2017, 10:54:49 PM »
Looks like after tomorrow temperatures should be above freezing in Hudson bay for the next few days. Given the already poor conditions there, might expect some quick melting to occur.

Killian

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 22
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1454 on: May 24, 2017, 01:43:32 AM »
Yeah, I looked forward going back through each of the last 5 years to 2012 and found the melt in the Lincoln/head of Nares Strait is about two months early.

Two. Months.

Let that percolate through your permafrost...

Lincoln Sea May 23th 2016 vs 21/21/23 2017. I made a stitch of the 3 days, to make the image as clear as possible with least clouds.

Killian

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 22
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1455 on: May 24, 2017, 02:43:53 AM »
I was going to do two screen captures from Worldview on May 9th and May 23rd to illustrate this, but am at work. Still, anyone else reminded of Thwaites when watching Nares over the last two weeks?

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1640
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1456 on: May 24, 2017, 03:16:07 AM »
I posted earlier today a temperature anomaly map of the CAA and Beaufort for the 23rd. I am now looking at Earth NS and getting surface air temps. over the CAA at up to 2oC and 1000hpa temps. in the same area over 3oC. It appears this will continue in the near term. Even more damaging to the ice in the CAA may be the small wave activity in the area. In short, I really expect the passages to open up sooner than later. I think Barrow Strait will open first, based on most of the ice there being thinner than other areas.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 03:26:28 AM by Tigertown »

VeliAlbertKallio

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1457 on: May 24, 2017, 03:43:05 AM »
IS THIS SEA ICE HEALTH INDICATOR OF A KIND?

A correlation (?) between fragmented sea ice cover, vertical mixing, warm bottom undercurrents replacing transported ice and cold surface water, plus melting permafrost behind unpredecented Northern Hemisphere methane haze.

Lincoln Sea May 23th 2016 vs 21/21/23 2017. I made a stitch of the 3 days, to make the image as clear as possible with least clouds.

this is a great contribution because it not only shows the ice condition in that regions but stands for most of the rest of the arctic, no matter what the extent currently is. ice has been rubble from last year and due to lack of freezing days/temps has been glued/frozen together only very poorly. further the higher mobility across the board applies further stress to the already non-solid ice cover which later in the melting season will cause rapid disintegration on an unseen scale, at least, provided that the weather will not be "extremely" ice friendly or melting unfriendly. i think that we shall see days where huge areas will fall below the 15% threshold withing a few days which will eventually show as the famous "pooof" effects which in parts we have seen last year already.

VeliAlbertKallio

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1458 on: May 24, 2017, 03:57:25 AM »
This series of four images (multiplex imagining of the Arctic Ocean sea ice by a satellite cluster) shows how rigid the sea ice was over a decade ago. The trans-oceanic leads tended to open from the estuaries of Siberian rivers and then run continuously across the Arctic Ocean in its entirety, ending on the other side at the Queen Elizabeth Archipelago, Nunavut, Canada. Today, such strong leads crossing the ocean are unimaginable with the ice splintering and fragmenting already across short distances. Back then, the Arctic Ocean was basically just three ice floes at this time of year (excepting the sea ice breakage area on the Atlantic side). All clouds have been removed from the images. The white band crossing the Arctic Ocean from the Queen Elizabeth Islands to the Komsomoletski Island in the Siberian coast is snow deposited on sea ice by the passing snow storm system and drift winds that scattered the snow. (The high resolution image is best viewed on full screen.)
« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 04:21:42 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »

VeliAlbertKallio

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1459 on: May 24, 2017, 04:04:04 AM »
At this point of time the Arctic Ocean was made of multiyear ice which is rigid. The main force breaking ice was coriolis and sea currents - hence the global dimensions of transoceanic leads that split the ocean into just three primary ice floes (A, B, C) antepenultimate, penultimate and ultimate ice floe (pictured) - this one breaking due to weakening by the riparian discharges acting against ice stressed mainly by the Beaufort Gyre - no sign of wind and wave broken sea ice cover. (The high resolution image is best viewed on full screen.)
« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 04:22:26 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »

VeliAlbertKallio

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1460 on: May 24, 2017, 04:09:03 AM »
The riparian discharges travelling beneath multiyear sea ice cover shown as the primary cause of sea ice breaking back in summer 2005 (from my RSE VII Symposium presentation at Ilulissat, Greenland, September 2007). Pain to see the difference of ice back then and what it is today... (The high resolution image is best viewed on full screen.)  :'( :'(
« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 04:27:16 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »

VeliAlbertKallio

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1461 on: May 24, 2017, 04:13:00 AM »
Besides tunnelling beneath the multiyear sea ice cover, the coastal melting was also happening with even thick multiyear ice unable to survive warm summer water flowing down the rivers from Siberia back 2005. (The high resolution image is best viewed on full screen.)
« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 04:25:47 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1462 on: May 24, 2017, 07:16:00 AM »
Thank you V. A. Kallio. This is really enlightening, most of us are used to the current "soup" and I for myself have not had a clear idea how things looked pre-2007.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2976
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 598
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1463 on: May 24, 2017, 07:44:23 AM »
Thank you VAK

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1464 on: May 24, 2017, 10:02:17 AM »
After about 77 consecutive months with temperatures above normal there is a 50-50 chance that Svalbard will see its first month with temperatures below normal. That would be the first case since November 2010(!).

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html?spr=eng



Courtesy: Yr.no

meddoc

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1465 on: May 24, 2017, 10:53:52 AM »
After about 77 consecutive months with temperatures above normal there is a 50-50 chance that Svalbard will see its first month with temperatures below normal. That would be the first case since November 2010(!).

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html?spr=eng



Courtesy: Yr.no

No good news, either. This is just Heat Redistribution through the messed- up Jetstream.

F.Tnioli

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 610
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1466 on: May 24, 2017, 01:49:48 PM »
Why, it's some good news to me. It is known Svalbard is one of key regions about "methane problem". It's definitely better, in my book, if Svalbard would happen to be colder while some deep-ocean region would end up being correspondedly warmer than the other way around. In terms of just single melting season, too: in shallow waters, there happen to be few other positive feedbacks other than methane emission. It's best to have shallow seas frozen as much as possible me thinks.

iceman

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 264
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1467 on: May 24, 2017, 02:02:12 PM »
   ....
Yes, the Atlantic side is to blame for why we are lagging in extent numbers. ...
Looking at the Barentsz, Kara, Labraffor and Greenland seas, I fully anticipate major flash melting in June that will have multiple centuries, possibly multiple double centuries of melt as the thin broad extent gets heated, and ice less than 1.5 meters their virtually evaporates.

Agreed on both counts.  Extent numbers currently overstate the health of the sea ice, probably by a wide margin.  Distribution is quite poor for extent, volume, and albedo anomaly (shown, from Nico Sun).
    While the Atlantic side might be the bigger contributor to extent drops during June, the Pacific side is arguably in worse shape.  If the forecast highs cause widespread melt ponding there as expected, albedo will look considerably worse in a week or two.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2976
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 598
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1468 on: May 24, 2017, 02:31:50 PM »
Temps near the Beaufort/Mackenzie delta are forecast to reach a high 11-13o tomorrow.
https://www.yr.no/sted/Canada/Northwest_Territories/Tuktoyaktuk/
https://www.yr.no/sted/Canada/Northwest_Territories/Inuvik/

Tfisher

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1469 on: May 24, 2017, 02:40:01 PM »
Climate reanalyzer has almost the whole arctic seeing some surface melting over the next five days.  The exception?  The Barents and Kara sea areas that have been hanging onto their ice this year.  So the extent numbers probably do not drop so much yet, as what should be the easiest ice to melt gets a reprieve.  But widespread melt ponding would bode poorly for the later season.


F.Tnioli

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 610
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1470 on: May 24, 2017, 03:02:15 PM »
If true, this would produce steady melt ponding all around the Pole, in particular, for a couple degrees of latitude in all directions, still during the month of May. Did the Pole melt pond any much during May ever before, i wonder.

I'm thinking about insolation effects, of course - those are at their max exactly near the Pole. Any thoughts about consequences for the minimum if most of CAA is much melt-ponded by some mid-June or even earler?

P.S. Seems 'em Great Lakes will be massacred very quick, eh.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 03:10:14 PM by F.Tnioli »

FishOutofWater

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 553
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1471 on: May 24, 2017, 03:52:33 PM »
Note the 5 wave pattern in the atmosphere.

Wave number 5 tends to "get stuck" and can result in floods in heat waves.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170406102621.htm

This pattern will bring with it a strong dipole with strong high pressure over the Beaufort sea and low pressure over the Barents sea and the far north Atlantic. It bodes ill for sea ice extent if it persists. And the CFS v2 model predicts it will persist.

Greenbelt

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 119
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1472 on: May 24, 2017, 05:44:42 PM »
Mid range forecast suggests strong winds around the Atlantic ice edge and strong high building near the pole




Ice Shieldz

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 207
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1473 on: May 24, 2017, 06:55:43 PM »
Over next two days. Export for Fram and Nares forecasted to increase with winds up to 50km for Kane Basin where that big slab of ice was temporarily constricting ice movement.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 07:03:12 PM by Ice Shieldz »

Andreas T

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1094
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1474 on: May 24, 2017, 07:05:07 PM »
The expectation of meltponding in high pressure conditions is repeated whenever such conditions are forecast. I have not seen a rationale behind that expectation, or much evidence that these predictions are reliable. No doubt there will be many more predictions like this in the coming weeks and at some point there will be meltponds, but I very often see the correlation which can once more be observed at Obuoy14: low pressure, clouds and raised temperatures. I attribute this to inflow of warm moist air, and believe more rigorous observations by scientists confirm this.
This has been posted so often I can't be bothered to dig out supporting information again, which will be ignored as usual by people who seem to prefer what their gut tells them.

My prediction for Obuoy14 is rising air pressure will bring clearer sky and lower temperature.
(which will not protect the arctic ocean from a most likely bad i.e. low ice melt season, by the way, before the usual opinionators start shouting at me)

Jim Williams

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1475 on: May 24, 2017, 07:30:47 PM »
The expectation of meltponding in high pressure conditions is repeated whenever such conditions are forecast. I have not seen a rationale behind that expectation, or much evidence that these predictions are reliable. No doubt there will be many more predictions like this in the coming weeks and at some point there will be meltponds, but I very often see the correlation which can once more be observed at Obuoy14: low pressure, clouds and raised temperatures. I attribute this to inflow of warm moist air, and believe more rigorous observations by scientists confirm this.
This has been posted so often I can't be bothered to dig out supporting information again, which will be ignored as usual by people who seem to prefer what their gut tells them.

My prediction for Obuoy14 is rising air pressure will bring clearer sky and lower temperature.
(which will not protect the arctic ocean from a most likely bad i.e. low ice melt season, by the way, before the usual opinionators start shouting at me)

I tend to agree.  I think an Ocean climate is more important than a mere bit of sun on the desert of ice.

Only time will tell.

StopTheApocalypse

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1476 on: May 24, 2017, 07:51:02 PM »
Quote
Recent studies suggest that the atmosphere conditions arctic sea ice properties in spring in a way that may be an important factor in predetermining autumn sea ice concentrations. Here, the role of clouds in this system is analyzed using surface-based observations from Barrow, Alaska. Barrow is a coastal location situated adjacent to the region where interannual sea ice variability is largest. Barrow is also along a main transport pathway through which springtime advection of atmospheric energy from lower latitudes to the Arctic Ocean occurs. The cloud contribution is quantified using the observed surface radiative fluxes and cloud radiative forcing (CRF) derived therefrom, which can be positive or negative. In low sea ice years enhanced positive CRF (increased cloud cover enhancing longwave radiative forcing) in April is followed by decreased negative CRF (decreased cloud cover allowing a relative increase in shortwave radiative forcing) in May and June. The opposite is true in high sea ice years. In either case, the combination and timing of these early and late spring cloud radiative processes can serve to enhance the atmospheric preconditioning of sea ice. The net CRF (April and May) measured at Barrow from 1993 through 2014 is negatively correlated with sea ice extent in the following autumn (r2 = 0.33; p < 0.01). Reanalysis data appear to capture the general timing and sign of the observed CRF anomalies at Barrow and suggest that the anomalies occur over a large region of the central Arctic Ocean, which supports the link between radiative processes observed at Barrow and the broader arctic sea ice extent.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0136.1

This article suggests what you've said above is true for April, but definitely not late May; if high pressure reduces cloud coverage it implies increased melt due to higher radiative forcing.

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1477 on: May 24, 2017, 07:52:32 PM »
Until I see the really warm air invade the Arctic basin for real, I will take current forecasts with a big grain of salt. The high Arctic is still having temps below 0 and will continue to have so for a couple of days ahead. But, if the GFS turns out to be correct the Pacific side should see a major damage in the next 2-5 days.

The main question is how quick the thick snow will dimnish in Siberia and onto the ice.

And GFS continues to be in a bad mood....

StopTheApocalypse

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1478 on: May 24, 2017, 08:06:16 PM »
Until I see the really warm air invade the Arctic basin for real, I will take current forecasts with a big grain of salt. The high Arctic is still having temps below 0 and will continue to have so for a couple of days ahead. But, if the GFS turns out to be correct the Pacific side should see a major damage in the next 2-5 days.

The main question is how quick the thick snow will dimnish in Siberia and onto the ice.

And GFS continues to be in a bad mood....

It's currently predicting heat in 1-2 days though, and even when poorly performing it would be pretty surprising to see big errors that quickly.

Andreas T

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1094
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1479 on: May 24, 2017, 08:58:07 PM »
....
This article suggests what you've said above is true for April, but definitely not late May; if high pressure reduces cloud coverage it implies increased melt due to higher radiative forcing.

Does the cloud radiative forcing parameter used in that paper depend on albedo? I understand that increased shortwave down is what ultimately provides the energy to melt the ice cover but in the initial stages when snow on ice reflects a large fraction of that, clear sky brings little net radiation gain, if I understand correctly. The timing of clouds is therefore critical and that timing is different for different parts of the arctic. Where water has opened by ice movement such as Chukchi or ESS  clear sky will mean large energy input, near the pole probably not.

StopTheApocalypse

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1480 on: May 24, 2017, 09:07:08 PM »
Here's the formula for calculating; it's calculated observationally in terms of short and long wave radiation, so implicitly takes albedo into account I guess. And I guess there is a point at which insolation overwhelms the effect of having slightly warmer air which would coincide with lows. In any case, both high pressure AND high temperatures are scheduled for the next few days, so this discussion might not be relevant to the situation at hand.

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1481 on: May 24, 2017, 09:47:23 PM »
ECMWF 12z op run depicts a possible scenario of a heat dome invading Kara Sea in 5-9 days which should literally blow up the ice there in addition with sea ice transported into the Atlantic "death row". Some century breaks possible next week.

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1640
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1482 on: May 24, 2017, 10:44:34 PM »
Will it keep on keeping on?

jdallen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2771
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1483 on: May 24, 2017, 11:02:03 PM »
Will it keep on keeping on?

It's done, well and truly.

There's not any else to shatter, and what's there won't re-knit in the next few days.

In short, *every* bit of ice which isn't land fast (a little along the ESS/Laptev which is doomed, a little along Greenland which hopefully is not) is in motion and vulnerable.  That includes virtually all of our multi-year ice. 
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2771
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1484 on: May 24, 2017, 11:08:26 PM »
Barentsz sea extent may be high, but the ice is decidedly not in a happy place.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2017, 06:38:16 AM by jdallen »
This space for Rent.

JimboOmega

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 139
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1485 on: May 25, 2017, 02:37:55 AM »
Anybody else notice it's above freezing in Barrow? And there are melt ponds not just on the snow on land but out on the ice as well. Also the first time I've seen people out walking and riding bicycles (I'm sure not the first time it's happened).

Spring is arriving in the high arctic...

Tigertown

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1640
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1486 on: May 25, 2017, 05:18:17 AM »
I am again watching the CAA closely, expecting it to melt out next and team up with the Nares Strait with regard to early export. The is some evidence of new melt activity. 23rd on the left vs. 24th on the right.

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1584
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1487 on: May 25, 2017, 05:54:24 AM »
Will it keep on keeping on?


At the surface that resembles the thaw on Siberian coasts. The thick ice looks like having been  gone to the seas (quite literally) and the thin 1st year ice is all that is left for polar bears to wade on. Soon nothing prevents nostalgic seal/polarbear/narwhale hunters in Greenland to move to CAA north shore and live happily (well, NOT of course ever after) for a while.

Summer's finally here in S.Finland. Leaves on trees have grown like crazy during the past week (only buds then, now maple leaves at ~4 inch width.)
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1488 on: May 25, 2017, 09:11:22 AM »
If the ECMWF 00z operational run is to believe, it's possible that we'll see a shift to more cloudy and low pressure dominated weather in the beginning of June. Such a senario, if it's a more prsistent one, will likely mean that the Arctic, once again, will dodge the bullet!!

Let's see what the ensemble says later today! :)

pauldry600

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 166
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1489 on: May 25, 2017, 09:38:32 AM »
Well IMO the Arctic isnt doding any bullets though someone of your esteem knows better

It all looks shattered under the thin ice layer on worldview

Only hanging on

JayW

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1490 on: May 25, 2017, 10:32:41 AM »
If the ECMWF 00z operational run is to believe, it's possible that we'll see a shift to more cloudy and low pressure dominated weather in the beginning of June. Such a senario, if it's a more prsistent one, will likely mean that the Arctic, once again, will dodge the bullet!!

Let's see what the ensemble says later today! :)

First attachment
25.0z ECMWF ensembles days 6-10 850mb temp anomaly

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2017052500&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=376


All operational models have been struggling more recently.
Second attachment is the 500mb anomaly correlation at hour 120 for the northern hemisphere.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3660
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 362
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1491 on: May 25, 2017, 11:19:25 AM »
Herewith some more boring numbers.

Jaxa extent as at May 24 of 11.6 million is 0.8 million more than 2016. That is 14 days behind 2016.
Looking at melting from May 24 to minimum in previous years, to reach 2007 and 2016 minima would require melting from now to minimum at around 4% greater than the previous 10 years average.
To reach the 2012 result would require melting at 16% above that previous 10 years average.
If melting from now to minimum was at that average rate, minimum would be 4.3 million m2.

Given that the melting season remaining is around 100 to 110 days (?) the chances of a spectacular result seem to be diminishing. The slow-motion train-wreck remains - slow? I will say no more until PIOMAS for May is out.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

meddoc

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1492 on: May 25, 2017, 11:52:46 AM »
If the ECMWF 00z operational run is to believe, it's possible that we'll see a shift to more cloudy and low pressure dominated weather in the beginning of June. Such a senario, if it's a more prsistent one, will likely mean that the Arctic, once again, will dodge the bullet!!

Let's see what the ensemble says later today! :)

All operational models have been struggling more recently.
Second attachment is the 500mb anomaly correlation at hour 120 for the northern hemisphere.


As the Jetstream collapses, I guess it's to be expected that the Models are gonna become more and more unreliable.

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1493 on: May 25, 2017, 11:54:30 AM »
Speaking about PIOMAS, despite its weaknesses, here is a glimpse of a possible outcome wrt volume from DMI saying that we are more or less on pair with 2016:



FredBear

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 95
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1494 on: May 25, 2017, 12:32:03 PM »
Kimmirut Weather looks like the sea ice is melting from 24/05/2017? (Melt-ponds?)

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2976
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 598
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1495 on: May 25, 2017, 01:42:55 PM »
Temps in Resolute, in the middle of the NW passage, have reached 0o.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • ASIF Upper Class
  • *****
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1496 on: May 25, 2017, 03:11:40 PM »
To reach the 2012 result would require melting at 16% above that previous 10 years average.
If melting from now to minimum was at that average rate, minimum would be 4.3 million m2.

True. But given that 2017 is a a quarter of a million km2 below the same date in 2012, to reach the 2012 result would obviously require a rate of decrease slower than that experienced in 2012.

Multiple larg(e)(ish) extent drops will commence in the next three weeks.

Thomas Barlow

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1497 on: May 25, 2017, 03:22:20 PM »
]If Nares does not block up, what happens?
https://media.giphy.com/media/l0IycQAX8BRdZcIQE/giphy.gif
« Last Edit: May 25, 2017, 06:36:30 PM by Thomas Barlow »

romett1

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 220
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1498 on: May 25, 2017, 03:34:07 PM »
Temperatures near Hudson Bay coast today evening +25.7 °C. Temps over the ice near the coast +18.0 °C. Definitely area to watch next couple of days. Image: earth.nullschool.net
« Last Edit: May 25, 2017, 04:01:56 PM by romett1 »

Ice Shieldz

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 207
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #1499 on: May 25, 2017, 03:46:48 PM »
If Nares does not block up, what happens?
https://media.giphy.com/media/3oKIPiympmurT33vPO/giphy.gif
Hard for me to imagine the Nares blocking up with GFS now calling for the next 5 days of significant winds occurring there. The GFS has been trending that way and it's only gotten stronger.