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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2250 on: June 24, 2017, 08:44:22 AM »
At 4 days out, both the GFS and Euro have been trending toward splitting the low into two discrete and localized cyclones. This creates more focused and intense winds north of CAA/Greenland and Russia while seemingly diminishing the overall effect of the winds on Pacific side (Beaufort, etc).

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2251 on: June 24, 2017, 08:58:10 AM »
Currently happening. Warm, moist air invading from Siberia. Notice where the cloud concentration is (top pic) compared to the 850 mb air which comes in at about 10.5oC before mixing and remains at about 3o to the very tip. The air is warm from this altitude of about 1500 meters and down to the surface. Assuming it is raining for the most part, I will let someone else do the math on the heat energy transfer.

Tomorrow, the whole situation scoots over closer to the Alaska/Canada side and covers what gets missed today.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2017, 09:06:05 AM by Tigertown »

johnm33

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2252 on: June 24, 2017, 09:13:57 AM »
If this proves true anything could happen from July onwards

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2253 on: June 24, 2017, 09:17:59 AM »
At 4 days out, both the GFS and Euro have been trending toward splitting the low into two discrete and localized cyclones. This creates more focused and intense winds north of CAA/Greenland and Russia while seemingly diminishing the overall effect of the winds on Pacific side (Beaufort, etc).
Yes but with a reappearance of the Beaufort high, with Gyre and insolation included, this time over a "sea" of melt ponds rather than just snow. Let's see how long that situation lasts,

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2254 on: June 24, 2017, 09:25:17 AM »
From the Alaska ice desk

Quote
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
240 PM AKDT THURSDAY 22 JUNE 2017

...JUNE 2017 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE SEA ICE BREAK UP SEASON IS WELL
UNDERWAY AT RECORD PACE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA AND HAS BEGUN IN THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA AS WELL. MOST OF THE REMAINING SEA ICE IN THE
ALASKA WATERS OF THE CHUKCHI SEA IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA...GENERALLY FROM POINT LAY TO BARROW.

AS WE LOOK FARTHER INTO BREAKUP SEASON...THE EARLY BREAKUP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS SEASON AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MULTI-
YEAR ICE IN THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA AND NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MAY
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON BREAKUP IN THE BEAUFORT SEA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE MONTHS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN EARLIER BREAKUP THAN IN RECENT
YEARS.

DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN EACH PERTINENT SECTION BELOW.

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fz/fzak30.pafc.ico.afc.txt
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2255 on: June 24, 2017, 01:53:56 PM »
The cumulative albedo potential of Nico Sun (Tealight) is in second place virtually tied with 2011. I attach a cropped view of his map for 6/22 that can be seen here
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs
Despite all the excess in the Atlantic side and the relatively late of surface melt onset, which give the Arctic pack a slightly negative potential, the big openings in Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS (plus the early retreat in Okhotsk and Bering seas) make for that.

The human eye could evaluate, to some extent, how this potential translated to real absorbed heat by these open water areas. Looking at worldview since May 15 the Beaufort has seen a lot of clear skies thanks to the persistent highs, but with a fair share of fog or clouds. Chukchi and ESS seas have seen a more mixed weather. 

Note the change of tonality of the ice in both animations in the last few days, these animations end in Jun 22

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2256 on: June 24, 2017, 02:07:29 PM »
If this proves true anything could happen from July onwards

That's a really big "if". GLB has been showing this sort of scenario for years. I refuse to even look at it anymore. I do still look at ARC https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html, which seems be be a little better grounded in reality.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2257 on: June 24, 2017, 02:38:01 PM »
If this proves true anything could happen from July onwards

That's a really big "if". GLB has been showing this sort of scenario for years. I refuse to even look at it anymore. I do still look at ARC https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html, which seems be be a little better grounded in reality.
Agree. The glb goes nuts in summer, the ARC (or ACNFS) is behaving pretty well imho, and it showed fair agreement with PIOMAS this year.

ACNFS still seems to still over-predict effect of storms on thickness (A-Team showed a nice example of it recently). Anyway even in that case, one can expect dispersed broken ice in the areas where ACNFS predicts sudden drops of thickness. Taken with common sense it does not hurt.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2258 on: June 24, 2017, 03:26:36 PM »
If this proves true anything could happen from July onwards

That's a really big "if". GLB has been showing this sort of scenario for years. I refuse to even look at it anymore. I do still look at ARC https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html, which seems be be a little better grounded in reality.
Agree. The glb goes nuts in summer, the ARC (or ACNFS) is behaving pretty well imho, and it showed fair agreement with PIOMAS this year.

ACNFS still seems to still over-predict effect of storms on thickness (A-Team showed a nice example of it recently). Anyway even in that case, one can expect dispersed broken ice in the areas where ACNFS predicts sudden drops of thickness. Taken with common sense it does not hurt.

Hycom on its own looks pretty bad, let alone GLB...
If this continues- and why wouldn't it- by early August we might get pretty close to the Blue Ocean Event.

johnm33

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2259 on: June 24, 2017, 05:44:35 PM »
GLB We have extensive lows, high/low tides and winds driving water in from the Pacific, ice close enough to being too thin to supress waves, if it's ever going to be right now's the time.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2260 on: June 24, 2017, 06:13:42 PM »
UPDATE for NSIDC SIE
x 106 km2

2017,    06,  17,     10.605
2017,    06,  18,     10.537
2017,    06,  19,     10.453
2017,    06,  20,     10.383
2017,    06,  21,     10.293
2017,    06,  22,     10.234
2017,    06,  23,     10.124

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2261 on: June 24, 2017, 09:56:51 PM »
NSIDC figures converted to Sea Research Society Indices (we used to run on F-17 figures in the old, proper CT days, but the calculations can be done with these Tigetown's numbers as well). So far it looks there will be ice on the North Pole...  ::)

NSIDC SIE WEEK (17-23 June 2017):

MELTING SPEED AVERAGE:                 80,167 km2/day.
HYPOTHETICAL all-ice-go rate:           126 melting days.
HYPOTHETICAL  blue-ocean date:      28 October 2017
REQUIRED blue-ocean-rate:               89 days
REQUIRED melt-rate:                         133,753 km2/day
CUT-OFF POINT:                                 Autumn Equinox
TIME Shortfall to Blue Ocean:            37 days
RATE Shortfall to Blue Ocean:            53,586 km2/day
DAYS EXCEEDING Blue Ocean Rate:   0 days
DAYS SHORT OF Blue Ocean Rate:      6 days
ACC. DAYS EXCEEDING BO Rate:        not available
ACC. DAYS SHORT OF BO Rate:           not available
SUMMER START Cut-Off Point:             1 June 2017

UPDATE for NSIDC SIE
x 106 km2

2017,    06,  17,     10.605
2017,    06,  18,     10.537
2017,    06,  19,     10.453
2017,    06,  20,     10.383
2017,    06,  21,     10.293
2017,    06,  22,     10.234
2017,    06,  23,     10.124
« Last Edit: June 24, 2017, 10:09:13 PM by VeliAlbertKallio »

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2262 on: June 24, 2017, 10:19:11 PM »
  The persistent storm in the CAB is currently at around 985 hPa.

  As shown below, the models (& have added the ensembles) are backing off on how much it will strengthen over the next couple of days. They now predict it to bottom out at around, or a bit below, the 2013 record for June of 980 hPa.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2263 on: June 25, 2017, 05:15:42 AM »
No JAXA. Looking at this gif to get an idea of what is going on. 21st-24th
CLICK IMAGE   Zoom

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2264 on: June 25, 2017, 06:16:11 AM »
Wave activy for this approximate date from 2015 to present.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2265 on: June 25, 2017, 09:20:42 AM »
Checking water temps. in the corner of the Beaufort that has been open for a while now. These are readings just below the surface(-0.5 m ) and down. Also, included is a time chart showing how in the last few days, the water has really began to heat up.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2266 on: June 25, 2017, 09:51:20 AM »
NSIDC figures converted to Sea Research Society Indices (we used to run on F-17 figures in the old, proper CT days, but the calculations can be done with these Tigetown's numbers as well). So far it looks there will be ice on the North Pole...  ::)

NSIDC SIE WEEK (17-23 June 2017):

MELTING SPEED AVERAGE:                 80,167 km2/day.
HYPOTHETICAL all-ice-go rate:           126 melting days.
HYPOTHETICAL  blue-ocean date:      28 October 2017
REQUIRED blue-ocean-rate:               89 days
REQUIRED melt-rate:                         133,753 km2/day
CUT-OFF POINT:                                 Autumn Equinox
TIME Shortfall to Blue Ocean:            37 days
RATE Shortfall to Blue Ocean:            53,586 km2/day
DAYS EXCEEDING Blue Ocean Rate:   0 days
DAYS SHORT OF Blue Ocean Rate:      6 days
ACC. DAYS EXCEEDING BO Rate:        not available
ACC. DAYS SHORT OF BO Rate:           not available
SUMMER START Cut-Off Point:             1 June 2017

I just don't expect Reality will prove these Models right. So far, everything has gone faster than expected.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2267 on: June 25, 2017, 10:26:54 AM »
Once past the storm the ECMWF ensemble is pretty assertive in bringing back the Beaufort high with lows all along the Asian coast. 850 hPa temps high over Beaufort sea and Central Arctic meaning inflow of warm air. Will be really interesting.
Below the mean day 6 to day 10 MSLP and 850 hPa temp. Noteworthy that the Beaufort high does not seem very diluted by the averages across members and days, but  just my opinion. ECMWF.int has uncertainty data as well, might have a look later.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2268 on: June 25, 2017, 11:24:10 AM »
For those interested, here's how the ECMWF single deterministic run and ensemble run compare to 'reality' so far. They both had 986 hPa for today, but it was actually a bit lower (983 hPa):
Compare, compare, compare

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2269 on: June 25, 2017, 11:32:03 AM »
As others have said, the current ECMWF forecast is highly interesting. While we still wait to see how low the cyclone will actually go, the forecast now points even more strongly towards a return of a high pressure system over the Beaufort Sea afterwards. That's probably not good news.

First a high, then a cyclone to stir things, and then another high to deal a second solar blow. If it weren't for the high albedo due to snow and thus a lack of preconditioning, things would be looking even bleaker than they already do right now.

Here's the forecast for the coming six days:
Compare, compare, compare

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2270 on: June 25, 2017, 12:54:27 PM »
Cross post from the Wildfires thread. There's not much sea ice left off the Mackenzie Delta:



There is however lots of smoke.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2271 on: June 25, 2017, 01:58:37 PM »
81 hour loop June 21-24, Chukchi Sea on the NW Alaskan coast.

Strong southwest winds, as evidenced by the appearance of gravity waves in the clouds, have this area on the move.

As always, imagery courtesy of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks.
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 02:07:57 PM by JayW »
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oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2272 on: June 25, 2017, 02:46:59 PM »
81 hour loop June 21-24, Chukchi Sea on the NW Alaskan coast.
Look at all that blue ponding on the right hand side. Small wonder the NSIDC area cratered in the Beaufort/Chukchi.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 06:43:50 AM by oren »

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2273 on: June 25, 2017, 03:37:53 PM »
81 hour loop June 21-24, Chukchi Sea on the NW Alaskan coast.
Look at all that blue ponding on the right hand side. Small wonder the NASIDC area cratered in the Beaufort/Chukchi.


Wide shot of the same time frame. I'll let others decide what's going on.  :)

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bairgon

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2274 on: June 25, 2017, 03:47:23 PM »
Another area showing the effect of the winds is the Lincoln sea. The wind is going to be from the west or south west over the next few days. Will the fractured ice be swept together?

Yesterdays's view showed a polynya forming. Worth watching over the next few days.

Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2275 on: June 25, 2017, 07:04:35 PM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 07:44:17 PM by Clenchie »
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2276 on: June 25, 2017, 07:46:45 PM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926

an idea that's not necessarily the case is that with the ice getting thinner each year, more and more dirt/soot accumulates on the surface. an example for this happening is the glaciers in the alps (and elsewhere) that get darker and darker in summer when the snow cover melted and this year's surface melt adds to the previous years.

there is a certain amount of sand and other dirt in the ice and some glaciers know entire regions where the ice is almost fully covered by the stuff, which of course accelerates the melting process through increased albedo. the end result in some places is a black surface and not all is just dust, at times there are small stone fragments, at least on glaciers, not necessarily/probable in the arctic and most propably not on sea-ice due to lack of sources for stones. what remains is the dust made from volcanic ashes from centuries and sand imported from deserts over time.
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Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2277 on: June 25, 2017, 08:02:22 PM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926

an idea that's not necessarily the case is that with the ice getting thinner each year, more and more dirt/soot accumulates on the surface. an example for this happening is the glaciers in the alps (and elsewhere) that get darker and darker in summer when the snow cover melted and this year's surface melt adds to the previous years.

there is a certain amount of sand and other dirt in the ice and some glaciers know entire regions where the ice is almost fully covered by the stuff, which of course accelerates the melting process through increased albedo. the end result in some places is a black surface and not all is just dust, at times there are small stone fragments, at least on glaciers, not necessarily/probable in the arctic and most propably not on sea-ice due to lack of sources for stones. what remains is the dust made from volcanic ashes from centuries and sand imported from deserts over time.

An interesting idea Maggie, and I get where you are coming from, but this particular ice melts out in the summer.
Ice flows make nice floes but icebergs don't make nice burgers.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2278 on: June 25, 2017, 09:23:03 PM »
The first image below shows ice thicknesses on July 2nd for the last six years, 2012-2017 from the hycom archives. Somehow I got them out of order -- can anyone help with which is which?

In the animation, I got the chronological order correct (or maybe reversed) but somehow managed to delete the identifiers and then forgot to pause the end of the cycle. If 2017 stands out in any way, would not that plus annual trend allow for reuniting the gif frames with their date labels?

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2279 on: June 25, 2017, 09:34:55 PM »
So, the story so far, was that PIOMAS volume is record low, which speaks in favour of a possible new record low minimum this year, whereas snow cover, melt ponding and SST spoke (somewhat) against it.

In the meantime, snow cover no longer plays a role:



SST anomaly is still not making a lot of progress on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, but is still going strong on the Pacific side (and possibly within the various holes, although these will always show up as strong anomaly because normally there's ice there):



And compactness has been dropping fast lately, which is probably a sign of melt ponding (corroborated by the bluish hue on satellite images of the Arctic), although dispersion is probably also playing a role, given the big cyclone churning things up right now:



But PIOMAS has stalled somewhat, and with 2012 dropping precipitously around this time of year it's almost on a par with 2017 (more info on the mid-month update in the PIOMAS thread):



So yeah, all very interesting, but we still can't say which way this will go.  :)
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 11:48:30 PM by Neven »
Compare, compare, compare

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2280 on: June 25, 2017, 09:58:15 PM »
@ A-Team
C=2012
F=2013
A=2014
E=2015
B=2016
D=2017

Yes, 2017 does stand out just a little.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 10:14:37 PM by Tigertown »

FredBear

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2281 on: June 25, 2017, 11:15:08 PM »
Sea ice at both Kimmirut and Barrow moving in last 24 hours   .   .   .

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2282 on: June 25, 2017, 11:19:32 PM »
So, the story so far.
Neven your images are not being displayed properly. Something to do with google user content.

Anne

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2283 on: June 25, 2017, 11:27:51 PM »
So, the story so far.
Neven your images are not being displayed properly. Something to do with google user content.
Displaying fine for me, oren. I'm using Chrome. Perhaps it's your browser?

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2284 on: June 25, 2017, 11:51:39 PM »
I've uploaded those images to Google Photos and then simply did 'copy link location' (links are very long). Maybe I did it the wrong way.

Either way, for those who can't view them, I've attached the same four images below (snow cover, SSTa, compactness, PIOMAS):
Compare, compare, compare

A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2285 on: June 26, 2017, 12:02:06 AM »
Thanks, now the old links in #2279 are working too (?!?). And it didn't take Ttown long to get those July 2nd ice thicknesses correctly dated (rearranged below).
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 01:09:55 AM by A-Team »

budmantis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2286 on: June 26, 2017, 12:27:15 AM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?

Don't know the cause, but the ice in that area looks the same every year that I've been watching.

BudM
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 12:46:12 AM by budmantis »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2287 on: June 26, 2017, 12:42:29 AM »
High pressure returning to the central Arctic with low pressure over Siberia - a strong dipole. With the warmer than normal water in the Bering and Chukchi seas  this is pretty much a worst case weather set up for the end of June beginning of July. All that snow bought us some time and kept things cool but now it will bring warm meltwater flowing into the Siberian seas. And humid air. The GFS model is starting to come around and agree with the Euro. Here's the Euro ensemble average 4 to 8 days out. Not good.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2288 on: June 26, 2017, 12:53:31 AM »
Its time to sound the dipole alert! A pretty slow and uneventful melting season, thus far, is about to get a lot more interesting. The attention grabbing storms, which once more prove unable to aid ice loss in high concentration ice fields, are about to be replaced by its silent, but far deadlier counterpart; the arctic dipole . This setup has consistently stalked the ECMWF forecasts for a week now and has finally entered the reliable 72h range, where it is predicted to stay all the way through 240h. It remains to be seen whether a proper dipole will last for 2-3 days (highly likely) or 7+ days (plausible, but less likely), but the latter of the two scenarios is bound to be an unmitigated disaster.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2289 on: June 26, 2017, 02:02:19 AM »
Its time to sound the dipole alert! A pretty slow and uneventful melting season, thus far, is about to get a lot more interesting. The attention grabbing storms, which once more prove unable to aid ice loss in high concentration ice fields, are about to be replaced by its silent, but far deadlier counterpart; the arctic dipole . This setup has consistently stalked the ECMWF forecasts for a week now and has finally entered the reliable 72h range, where it is predicted to stay all the way through 240h. It remains to be seen whether a proper dipole will last for 2-3 days (highly likely) or 7+ days (plausible, but less likely), but the latter of the two scenarios is bound to be an unmitigated disaster.

I'm confused why you think this is a slow melting season when Wip's numbers show that the CAB is at a record minimum area for this date, and I think we are around third lowest for extent on NSIDC. Surely a slow melting season would have us at above average extent?

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2290 on: June 26, 2017, 02:37:43 AM »
Bill, slightly OT but that means that the loss of sea ice in the Antarctic would have a greater warming effect per square metre, albedo wise, than the loss at the same latitude (north vs. south) in the Arctic?

There's no sea ice below 80S and very little below 75. Wouldn't this lessen the effect?

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2291 on: June 26, 2017, 03:05:57 AM »
Edit: err, having some trouble attaching images. Any tips? I took it straight from the hycom snapshot archive.
The image is probably too large. 700 x 700 pixels should work, width especially is a constraint, try to crop or resize.

There appears to be a certain amount of weirdness in how the site handles gifs. Oversize gifs usually will open in a separate window on clicking but some, like STA's demand to be downloaded for reason I don't understand. This can also happen with gifs under 700 pixels I think, one of 3 animations I posted of Chukchi, Laptev and ESS seas the other day but I haven;t had time or inclination to try to understand the bug or issue

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2292 on: June 26, 2017, 03:31:55 AM »
A jump of 8 degrees F in water temperature at Red Dog Dock today.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=rdda2


subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2293 on: June 26, 2017, 03:35:29 AM »
81 hour loop June 21-24, Chukchi Sea on the NW Alaskan coast.
Look at all that blue ponding on the right hand side. Small wonder the NASIDC area cratered in the Beaufort/Chukchi.

And the abrupt massaging of the ice edge into a smooth line

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2294 on: June 26, 2017, 05:38:55 AM »
University of Bremen's AMSR2 Arctic sea ice concentration map has updated, now on 25 June, which is one of the dates of Neven's year-to-year comparison graphic: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0625.

At bottom right, 2017 has more blue showing around the edge of the Arctic Basin than in previous years. This is in agreement with Wipneus' extent calculation for the restricted central regions of the Arctic Basin that has 2017 as the year with the lowest extent.

Some melt ponds are showing in the interior by now, catching up with the other years. Note again that the palette has changed: 2017 doesn't show the white flecks at just below 100% concentration that the other years do.

Still early days in the melt season.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 06:25:29 AM by slow wing »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2295 on: June 26, 2017, 06:40:14 AM »
6-25-17 blended ascending and descending. The warm land air has been blowing in at the surface in the peripheral areas, and along with other considerations, has damaged and weakened the sea ice there. It can now be finished off by a number of ways, including insolation. Warm rain and air has likely left surfaces that have lower albedo, including some areas with new melt ponds and completely open water.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2296 on: June 26, 2017, 07:12:51 AM »
I guess with regards to SIE Minimum, July daily/ weekly average numbers will prove more predicitive than those of June. As Melt Momentum is now picking up. Fast.

stackmaster

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2297 on: June 26, 2017, 07:42:09 AM »
Cloud cover has opened over ESS enough to get a good look at the large area of fast ice between the coast and the New Siberian Islands clearly with Worldview on June 26.  The area has gone from snow covered land and ice clearly visible on June 7th to bluing bare ice and melting snow visible on the 15th.  Today,  the snow is gone from land and ice and thousands of km of fast ice are rapidly breaking up.  The Lena River, as seen on nullschool is moving through it's more than 4,000 km length where almost its entire path enjoys summer temps between 20 and 30C and large amounts of snow have recently melted. 

Laptev and ESS are getting into the game.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2298 on: June 26, 2017, 07:46:56 AM »
I'm confused why you think this is a slow melting season when Wip's numbers show that the CAB is at a record minimum area for this date, and I think we are around third lowest for extent on NSIDC. Surely a slow melting season would have us at above average extent?

Because 2017 had a headstart on both SIE and volume, which is no longer there. May extent loss was an unimpressive 12th smallest, June has been a little quicker, relative to other years, but still far behind 2012. The snow cover was slow to melt, melt ponds came late and there hasn't been much melt momentum - until now - just a steady chiping away of ice which was record thin and weak to begin with. 2017 would end nowhere close to 2012 minimum if this trend contiued another month. Fortunately, it wont.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2299 on: June 26, 2017, 08:00:34 AM »
The thing is that the melt ponds have come with the storm, so it may have been a very bad solstice week for the Arctic, clouds and all