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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2450 on: July 01, 2017, 12:32:58 AM »
Is it possible that the big discrepancy between the eastern Arctic, especially Greenland, and the western Arctic, that means the Pacific side, plays a role in the low temperature average? The Pacific side definitely is not cold at all, while the Atlantic side rather destroys ice by export and storms and not so much by heat (but both sides seem to work hand in hand in a way ... ).
It's the wind that blows from the Pacific across the Pole, by then has become cold North wind, over Svalbard and Greenland, all thru the Arctic losing energy to melt ice and heat cold ice, plus the remnants of the past storm.
2007 is the paramount example of this kind of circulation sustained for months since spring and all thru July. Have a look to 2007 DMI temps... Mostly negative anomalies for months. The year of so bad pacific side meltout.
DMI 80 N is not clearly correlated with melting, period.
Said so LMV is all right in pointing really anomalous cold dip. We will see.

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2451 on: July 01, 2017, 12:41:04 AM »
Wow! NAVGEM is showing a really settled Arctic Basin by day 7. There's hardly any gradient at all! The highest pressure over most of the Basin is 1014 and the lowest is 1004!

Of course, 7 days is a long way away so we will have to see if this verifies.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2452 on: July 01, 2017, 03:24:47 AM »
Is it possible that the big discrepancy between the eastern Arctic, especially Greenland, and the western Arctic, that means the Pacific side, plays a role in the low temperature average? The Pacific side definitely is not cold at all, while the Atlantic side rather destroys ice by export and storms and not so much by heat (but both sides seem to work hand in hand in a way ... ).
It's the wind that blows from the Pacific across the Pole, by then has become cold North wind, over Svalbard and Greenland, all thru the Arctic losing energy to melt ice and heat cold ice, plus the remnants of the past storm.
2007 is the paramount example of this kind of circulation sustained for months since spring and all thru July. Have a look to 2007 DMI temps... Mostly negative anomalies for months. The year of so bad pacific side meltout.
DMI 80 N is not clearly correlated with melting, period.
Said so LMV is all right in pointing really anomalous cold dip. We will see.
Thank you, that's eye opening ...
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2453 on: July 01, 2017, 06:20:50 AM »
A few notes on whats going on in the atmospheric circulation.
At 250hpa the jets have collapsed. Although the low and high pressures in systems over high northern latitude are not extreme these are very deep with some dozen relevant eggbeaters mixing and well defined still at this level near 12km up:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-215.15,74.80,383/loc=-171.181,73.858

At the top of nullschool imaging over 30km at 10hpa there is very strong and consistant east to west flow belting from the arctic to well south of the equator. Showing that strong upwelling is happening in the north and the southern flow out of this is pouring into big high pressure systems that have reached up to 1070 hpa mslp over Antarctica and the southern Indian ocean in this last week. Up to 490kmph winds have been seen where the inflow from the northern spinner crosses the equator and is pinched in the double vortex to the south.
       https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=21.94,-19.80,232/loc=55.355,-51.303
The returning air seems mainly to be Troposheric travelling up the east coast of Africa. Heading east across India. Before returning to polar regions by several routes including north over siberia and across the pacific and up over Alaska and Canada. Obviously if this pattern continues A bugger of a lot of heat can be shifted north to the Arctic in the next few months.
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slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2454 on: July 01, 2017, 06:27:43 AM »
Yes, it would be better to have a temperature average over the whole Arctic Basin than just over greater than 80 degrees N.

Looking back through the years in the archive, at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php, several recent years have low T80 Summer temperatures, including the strong melt year 2010.

So it will relate to the specific weather pattern for the year and not necessarily with melt potential.

Personally I don't find the T80 graph to be of much analytical use over the Summer as we can look at the daily temperature maps from, for example, Nullschool, and see the actual temperature distribution over the entire Arctic.

Anyway, attached are the graphs for 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2014 - which all have low T80 Summer temperatures.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2455 on: July 01, 2017, 06:54:27 AM »
Go figure this. I am guessing melt ponding from greater than freezing rain.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2456 on: July 01, 2017, 07:47:30 AM »
Is it possible that the big discrepancy between the eastern Arctic, especially Greenland, and the western Arctic, that means the Pacific side, plays a role in the low temperature average? The Pacific side definitely is not cold at all, while the Atlantic side rather destroys ice by export and storms and not so much by heat (but both sides seem to work hand in hand in a way ... ).
It's the wind that blows from the Pacific across the Pole, by then has become cold North wind, over Svalbard and Greenland, all thru the Arctic losing energy to melt ice and heat cold ice, plus the remnants of the past storm.
2007 is the paramount example of this kind of circulation sustained for months since spring and all thru July. Have a look to 2007 DMI temps... Mostly negative anomalies for months. The year of so bad pacific side meltout.
DMI 80 N is not clearly correlated with melting, period.
Said so LMV is all right in pointing really anomalous cold dip. We will see.
Yep sis, (some speculative content follows) El Nino +1. The first year of the cycle ending with big release of heat through atmosphere, that's by happenstance been about 5 years apart past 20 years. Really the cycle could be shorter but the earth's axial tilt is a powerful regulator of cycles having a period of years+fraction. Still hoping this is a year of small melt, compared to the largest melt years.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2457 on: July 01, 2017, 08:22:41 AM »
Regardless of long term forecast, one thing that seems to be a steady feature in the Arctic lately, is the 850 mb warm air invasion. It is not necessary to know exactly where it will come in each day, because it is raining somewhere nearly everyday. Some of the rain clouds are bound to overlap the warm air masses each day. Furthermore, as noted by more than one of us, rain will fall through the warm air and take energy to the surface. This scenario does not have to cover a large area at one time, as it happens in one area one day and another area the next. Melt ponding is started, allowing other influences such as insolation to get a foothold. The abundance of moisture is now lending a greater impact to this process.

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2458 on: July 01, 2017, 09:50:05 AM »
BIG pattern changes again folks!

Both the GFS and the ECMWF op runs depict a return to a cyclonic pattern again. And an intensive 977 hpa cyclone by D7... Well, the GFS ensemble hints the return to occur by D9 whic is far out in time. Let's wait for the ECMWF ensemble!

If this pattern change really unfolds, I'm pretty sure we'll dodge the bullet again this year. But the question is for how many more years we'll be able to dodge that bullet? It's unrealistic to believe that we'll have "good" ice years for another 10 years.

There's not a ton of stability in the modeling though.  Numerical weather prediction also has a tendency to phase systems as lead time grows.  We saw this recently when a 970s (even 960s) low was progged for the Arctic.  Instead, the energies remained separate and there were two smaller cyclones.  I believe the latest 1.0z ECMWF shows this, with two cyclones that interact in more of a "fujiwara" effect than a full blown phase.  Without run to run consistency, hard to determine what's "shifting", as the runs really begin to diverge at hour 120-144.

Also, the position of these lows also matters greatly, with growing open water in the ESS, Chukchi, and Beaufort, storms in these areas might be less than ice friendly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017070100&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=364
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2459 on: July 01, 2017, 10:05:39 AM »
Is it possible that the big discrepancy between the eastern Arctic, especially Greenland, and the western Arctic, that means the Pacific side, plays a role in the low temperature average? The Pacific side definitely is not cold at all, while the Atlantic side rather destroys ice by export and storms and not so much by heat (but both sides seem to work hand in hand in a way ... ).

generally i would agree that there is an effect but then the regions of the atlantic side that are below average are barely in if then in small parts above 80N as far as i could see while i usually slide through reanalyzer for the bigger picture and at times it might be a bit off that impression.

just open this link and you'll see that there is nowhere enough blue above 80N that would account for such a huge anomaly on the lower side iMO

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 10:18:51 AM by magnamentis »
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JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2460 on: July 01, 2017, 12:19:15 PM »
I broke this into 2 gifs to keep the resolution as high as possible. 4 days, approximately 104 hours.  Grrr, for some reason the first gif won't run at all. 2nd edit: got it working

First is the area around Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, I like watching the swirls

Second is the southwest Beaufort.  The effects of a windy day can be seen.

Imagery courtesy of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 12:30:20 PM by JayW »
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2461 on: July 01, 2017, 12:47:11 PM »
Is it possible that the big discrepancy between the eastern Arctic, especially Greenland, and the western Arctic, that means the Pacific side, plays a role in the low temperature average? The Pacific side definitely is not cold at all, while the Atlantic side rather destroys ice by export and storms and not so much by heat (but both sides seem to work hand in hand in a way ... ).

generally i would agree that there is an effect but then the regions of the atlantic side that are below average are barely in if then in small parts above 80N as far as i could see while i usually slide through reanalyzer for the bigger picture and at times it might be a bit off that impression.

just open this link and you'll see that there is nowhere enough blue above 80N that would account for such a huge anomaly on the lower side iMO

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom

Yes, the cold greenland temperatures and the higher numbers at the pacific side should outweigh each other close to normal.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2462 on: July 01, 2017, 01:28:28 PM »
...I like watching the swirls
Those swirls are exciting!  I hope we can watch the relatively large 'raindrop' floe (tear drop?), that appears in both gifs, for a long time.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2463 on: July 01, 2017, 01:56:18 PM »
Those swirls are exciting!  I hope we can watch the relatively large 'raindrop' floe (tear drop?), that appears in both gifs, for a long time.

That's probably FYI, so the chances are dim ...
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2464 on: July 01, 2017, 02:09:26 PM »
Yah, but here's hoping!
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2465 on: July 01, 2017, 02:20:41 PM »
I did some gif using windy.com for the next 5 days, which uses ECMWF for temperatures rather than the unreliable GFS. Sorry for the quality of the images, the converter I use is crappy. The scale of temperatures wouldn't fit, has to be consulted in windy.com directly. 
The advection of warm air affecting the surface is continuous through Bering Strait and ESS, also Beaufort and CAA. Note how warm the main NWP stays these days.
Temperatures do not go up much within the Arctic proper. I'd say that is expected over ice. These tongues of warmer air sufficiently far from the coast typically go up to 2 to 3 degrees, not more.
That does not mean that heat is not being transferred. It is, from turbulent mixing of warmer airmass from higher altitudes, and from radiation in general. Actually 3 degrees over the CAB, as closed pack as it is now, strikes me as pretty warm.
"Night" temperatures stay barely over zero across all the Pacific side, negative in other locations.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 02:26:24 PM by seaicesailor »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2466 on: July 01, 2017, 03:47:51 PM »
Yes, it would be better to have a temperature average over the whole Arctic Basin than just over greater than 80 degrees N.

Such things are available, with a little work. See the Developer's Forum for example:

Mapping GeoCoded Data Sets

As SIS hints above the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis site allows you to generate custom maps and timeseries. However, prompted in part by the obvious difficulty the models are currently having in generating accurate forecasts for the "New Arctic", I've been comparing assorted reanalysis products:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/reanalysis-of-arctic-climate/

Quote
NCEP Reanalysis (R2) is better than NCEP-NCAR (R1) but still a first generation reanalysis. It is best to use 3rd generation reanalyses, specifically, ERA-Interim and MERRA
.

Unlike NCEP/NCAR there isn't a "near real time" option readily available for the alternative reanalyses, but hopefully getting back on topic here are some alternative interpretations of summers past:



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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2467 on: July 01, 2017, 03:57:50 PM »
How does 2017 look like so far?

Interesting to see that the thicker ice north of Svalbard finally seems to take a hit from the heat despite cool conditions. Question is how much it will melt out until late August?

Also fascinating to see that the Northern Route is "more or less navigable" as of early July. Clouds are obscuring the melting but according to Uni Hamburg it's still closed over Severnaya Zemlya but I don't get surprised if it's going to be completely open before July 15.

Yuha

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2468 on: July 01, 2017, 04:40:27 PM »
Regardless of long term forecast, one thing that seems to be a steady feature in the Arctic lately, is the 850 mb warm air invasion.

Here is an example of the 850 mb warm air invasion: 7.6C at 80N 165W according to nullschool.
The result is extensive melt ponds. The worldview animation (needs click) shows June 29 and 31 July 1.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 07:11:22 PM by Yuha »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2469 on: July 01, 2017, 05:10:34 PM »
How does 2017 look like so far?

Assuming your question is addressed to me, ERA Interim is only available at WRIT up to January 2017. See below for the "deprecated" NCEP/NCAR.

Quote
Also fascinating to see that the Northern Route is "more or less navigable" as of early July.

That's stretching things more than somewhat! It'll be quite some time before you'll be able to sail the Vilkitsky Strait unmolested by ice. Or were you thinking icebreaker assisted?
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Quantum

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2470 on: July 01, 2017, 05:23:45 PM »
I did some gif using windy.com for the next 5 days, which uses ECMWF for temperatures rather than the unreliable GFS. Sorry for the quality of the images, the converter I use is crappy. The scale of temperatures wouldn't fit, has to be consulted in windy.com directly. 
The advection of warm air affecting the surface is continuous through Bering Strait and ESS, also Beaufort and CAA. Note how warm the main NWP stays these days.
Temperatures do not go up much within the Arctic proper. I'd say that is expected over ice. These tongues of warmer air sufficiently far from the coast typically go up to 2 to 3 degrees, not more.
That does not mean that heat is not being transferred. It is, from turbulent mixing of warmer airmass from higher altitudes, and from radiation in general. Actually 3 degrees over the CAB, as closed pack as it is now, strikes me as pretty warm.
"Night" temperatures stay barely over zero across all the Pacific side, negative in other locations.
Apologies, can I ask how you managed to find this resource? I've been looking for ECMWF additional parameters for ages. Best I could come up with was the glitchy wundermap which worked about 20% of the time.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2471 on: July 01, 2017, 05:54:54 PM »
Quote

: magnamentis  Today at 10:05:39 AM

Yes, the cold greenland temperatures and the higher numbers at the pacific side should outweigh each other close to normal.

Since Greenland is discussed as a factor here, judging by this melt pattern since last September, I wonder if overall, Greenland only appears colder as a whole. Seems like a complex picture.
The cold blob SSTA in N. Atlantic may be a factor, and ironically, the melt of Arctic icebergs flowing endlessly from Fram and Nares in large quantities into the N. Atlantic, as well as Greenland melt could be causing that cold blob.
Any ideas?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 09:07:33 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2472 on: July 01, 2017, 06:02:57 PM »
Yuha: since when does June have 31 days?  ;D

Jim Hunt: yes, it was mostly adressed to you :) And yes, it was straining things somewhat but I was looking at EOSDIS NASA and from that pic it seems that the Northern Route is not far away from breaking up. Right now, it could be possible to get through if you have a good and strong boat, not necessarily an ice breaker though.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2473 on: July 01, 2017, 06:56:06 PM »
Apologies, can I ask how you managed to find this resource? I've been looking for ECMWF additional parameters for ages. Best I could come up with was the glitchy wundermap which worked about 20% of the time.

The page is
https://www.windy.com/

It was brought here the other day with a lot of nice examples:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg118051.html#msg118051


Quantum

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2474 on: July 01, 2017, 07:04:48 PM »
Apologies, can I ask how you managed to find this resource? I've been looking for ECMWF additional parameters for ages. Best I could come up with was the glitchy wundermap which worked about 20% of the time.

The page is
https://www.windy.com/

It was brought here the other day with a lot of nice examples:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg118051.html#msg118051

Meteorological resources really have a serious issue with metadata. ECMWF additional parameters are like golddust, yet a simple google search would yield absolutely nothing. Do you know any other cool websites? I suppose the UKV is a little too much to ask for?

Yuha

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2475 on: July 01, 2017, 07:16:38 PM »
Yuha: since when does June have 31 days?  ;D

Should of course be July 1 (corrected now)

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2476 on: July 01, 2017, 07:32:13 PM »
Meteorological resources really have a serious issue with metadata. ECMWF additional parameters are like golddust, yet a simple google search would yield absolutely nothing. Do you know any other cool websites? I suppose the UKV is a little too much to ask for?
Mmm I am not sure if I follow...
The one I indicated is more like nullschool. I don't know of more serious meteorological sites showing ECMWF surface temps.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2477 on: July 01, 2017, 08:15:30 PM »
New July polls are up:

NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average

and

JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum

You have 11 days to vote, but you can also vote now and then change your vote later, if needs be.
Compare, compare, compare

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2478 on: July 01, 2017, 08:20:05 PM »
Yes, it would be better to have a temperature average over the whole Arctic Basin than just over greater than 80 degrees N.

My guess is, that somewhat lower DMI temps are due to:
- greater Melting Momentum
- high- low Atmosphere Airmasses "Switch"

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2479 on: July 01, 2017, 09:03:56 PM »
ECMWF 12z op run is quite similar to the GFS 12z op run both show similar characteristics at D10 which should be an oddity(!) Both models develops a HP-system covering most of the Arctic. The EURO is even having a varaint of the "Garlic Press" at D7-D10. At D5-7, an intensive July cyclone at about 987 hpa is forecasted to develop somewhere over the CAB. What are the deepest July cyclone btw?

As usual, this is far out in time but it surely should be an ominous and bad sign for the Arctic if the Atlantic is going to face some serious melt ponding too.

Quantum

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2480 on: July 01, 2017, 09:22:09 PM »
ECMWF 12z op run is quite similar to the GFS 12z op run both show similar characteristics at D10 which should be an oddity(!) Both models develops a HP-system covering most of the Arctic. The EURO is even having a varaint of the "Garlic Press" at D7-D10. At D5-7, an intensive July cyclone at about 987 hpa is forecasted to develop somewhere over the CAB. What are the deepest July cyclone btw?

As usual, this is far out in time but it surely should be an ominous and bad sign for the Arctic if the Atlantic is going to face some serious melt ponding too.
I mean to be fair its not great, but its not awful either.

One thing that has struck me about this melt season, despite the generally poor conditions is a distinctive lack of blowtorch conditions. Last year the 10C 850hpa isotherm regularly moved over the beaufort, this year I don't think it has happened at all yet. I wonder if that is the reason that we have seen a lack of century breaks on JAXA despite it still running at around 3rd lowest on record.   

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2481 on: July 01, 2017, 09:59:38 PM »
It doesn't have to be awful, Quantum. It's sufficient that a big HP cover the Atlantic side to advect warm air and ocean water from south to melt snow and ice. The Atlantic side has been lacking melting momentum more or less completely so far. And the ice is thin there, the current warm surge over the Pacific side should speed up things.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2482 on: July 01, 2017, 11:10:19 PM »
There's no need for blowtorching to bring the pack in danger. Even average weather during July/August will be enough to present a new minimum record.
Today, the open waters in Beaufort and Chukchi have almost joined. Melt ponding reaches 1200 km North from Barrow. Laptev fragmentation is less than 500 km from the Pole.
Extent is not the right proxy for the state of the pack right now. It is delusive because it still reflects a lot of dispersed ice in the periphery that will melt out anyway.
The real battlefield is the CAB pack. When the snow layer has faded, the anomalously thin ice will be very vulnerable.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2483 on: July 01, 2017, 11:19:38 PM »
Concur, Werther! But I'm not so sure we'll see a new minimum this year but it should not be too far away and a 2nd place is a very possible outcome.

And let's not forget the open waters that will continue to suck up heat which will affect the weather during fall and early winter at least. I will reiterate my concern for a new and big El Niño next year which will ramp up the Arctic winter temperatures even more which should be hugely pronounced by 2019.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2484 on: July 02, 2017, 02:45:36 AM »
Yes. Like comparing the cooling effect and extent covered of a crushed ice cube or a whole one is this year to previous one's. The high Autumn snowfalls and unknowns over how much of piomass and other volume metrics have been confounded by reading melted and refrozen snow surfaces as the sea ice top. And the insulation of that snow preventing bottom thickening but fooling sat thermal sensors into believing that thicker ice is there because of reduced longwave flux from the ocean below.
These factors make this season very interesting.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2485 on: July 02, 2017, 09:01:30 AM »
Highly variable weather pattern ahead with a possible Garlic Press and a 987/982 hpa July cyclone.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2486 on: July 02, 2017, 10:54:59 AM »
I guess with the Collapse of the Arctic advancing, so will the Models & Forecasts become more & more unreliable.
The Jetstream is already a messed- up Collection of meridional Loopholes and cut- off Lows & blocking Highs.
The Oceans, too must be a real Mess, as 90% of the excess Heat are ending up there- up to now...

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2487 on: July 02, 2017, 03:06:18 PM »
July 1st typically sees the largest extent drop of the year within the NSIDC extent series.
The average extent drop from 1979 to 2016 is 203k, with the last 10 years averaging a 261k drop and 2013 achieving the largest drop, at 349k.

This year saw a slightly below average drop, just 177k, making it the 15th smallest from 39 years.



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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2488 on: July 02, 2017, 03:35:39 PM »
An interesting tidbit that means nothing.

I am still surprised by the season not having already degraded into a hot mess but long term 1 day comparisons mean????

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2489 on: July 02, 2017, 04:19:49 PM »
Just saying, 2017 has been leading volume-wise in the inner basin, the CAB and adjoining areas, where differences in thickness manifest themselves as 2d area differences mainly in August. So it's a bit early to judge.
The main question mark of this stage will be resolved very soon with the end-June PIOMAS data. If the lead is preserved, the race is still on. Should the volume lead crumble to dust in the inner basin, 2017's chances for top finish will crumble as well.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2017, 04:25:56 PM by oren »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2490 on: July 02, 2017, 05:03:23 PM »
Just saying, 2017 has been leading volume-wise in the inner basin, the CAB and adjoining areas, where differences in thickness manifest themselves as 2d area differences mainly in August. So it's a bit early to judge.
The main question mark of this stage will be resolved very soon with the end-June PIOMAS data. If the lead is preserved, the race is still on. Should the volume lead crumble to dust in the inner basin, 2017's chances for top finish will crumble as well.
Completely agree. There's still the argument that the remaining ice in the Pacific half is almost exclusively FYI, but even when it melts and fragments faster than MYI (for reasons completely different to what I thought, I must say), all depends on freak events to melt the same volume of ice as 2012. And the season so far weather wise is being bad for the ice but not that freaky

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2491 on: July 02, 2017, 05:20:17 PM »
Those swirls are exciting!  I hope we can watch the relatively large 'raindrop' floe (tear drop?), that appears in both gifs, for a long time.

That's probably FYI, so the chances are dim ...

The Canadian Ice Service calls it FYI while the Anchorage Sea Ice Desk has it as a small area of old ice.  May be as a good as you'll get for a floe to follow as there doesn't look to be any candidate able to compete with last year's "Mongo".

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2492 on: July 02, 2017, 07:16:19 PM »
NSIDC SIE
X 106 km2

2017,    06,  26,      9.913
2017,    06,  27,      9.764
2017,    06,  28,      9.645
2017,    06,  29,      9.531
2017,    06,  30,      9.421
2017,    07,  01,      9.244

That's a total of -669,000 km2 in five days.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2493 on: July 02, 2017, 09:01:53 PM »
The main question mark of this stage will be resolved very soon with the end-June PIOMAS data. If the lead is preserved, the race is still on. Should the volume lead crumble to dust in the inner basin, 2017's chances for top finish will crumble as well.
I look forward to the next 'Inner Basin' volume graph !
It's hard to see much here below yet, but considering this shows that the volume for the N. Hemisphere sea-ice is now crowding in on the lowest years for this time of year, and the Arctic Ocean was at lowest volume a couple of weeks back (re. your graph), most of the volume loss being seen for the hemisphere would have to be outside the Arctic Ocean for the 'Inner Basin" graph to slow descent and even out with previous years.
I guess, Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, Greenland Sea, melting out could cause the hemisphere volume to drop more than previous years, but theoretically the 'Inner Basin' could still not change much.
I think it will still be lowest volume for Inner Basin, and if it is, all bets are off.
I look forward to seeing the results !

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2494 on: July 02, 2017, 09:52:59 PM »
The main question mark of this stage will be resolved very soon with the end-June PIOMAS data. If the lead is preserved, the race is still on. Should the volume lead crumble to dust in the inner basin, 2017's chances for top finish will crumble as well.
I look forward to the next 'Inner Basin' volume graph !
It's hard to see much here below yet, but considering this shows that the volume for the N. Hemisphere sea-ice is now crowding in on the lowest years for this time of year, and the Arctic Ocean was at lowest volume a couple of weeks back (re. your graph), most of the volume loss being seen for the hemisphere would have to be outside the Arctic Ocean for the 'Inner Basin" graph to slow descent and even out with previous years.
I guess, Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, Greenland Sea, melting out could cause the hemisphere volume to drop more than previous years, but theoretically the 'Inner Basin' could still not change much.
I think it will still be lowest volume for Inner Basin, and if it is, all bets are off.
I look forward to seeing the results !

just consider that the inner basin currently contains all the remaining thicker ice that was located on the pacific side last year, hence even though the number itself will be interesting, it might as well be a bit misleading when it comes to validation of the thickness. the inner basin and the atlantic side are the only regions that got replenished with slightly thicker ice from the caa and the pacific side
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2495 on: July 02, 2017, 09:53:59 PM »
Unlikely tobreak 2012 record, here is SIPNs projection. 2017 is likely to edge out 2016. Tweet from Ed Hawkins. Courtesy: Sea Ice Prediction Network.

Of interesting note is that SIPN also includes Antarctica in its forecast! The majority of the 9 models predict a SIE among the lowest observed in September. Read more at: https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2017/june

https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/881592836575174656

« Last Edit: July 02, 2017, 10:04:57 PM by Lord M Vader »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2496 on: July 02, 2017, 10:18:49 PM »
just consider that the inner basin currently contains all the remaining thicker ice that was located on the pacific side last year, hence even though the number itself will be interesting, it might as well be a bit misleading when it comes to validation of the thickness. the inner basin and the atlantic side are the only regions that got replenished with slightly thicker ice from the caa and the pacific side

Yes, I think you are right.
Here I deleted all ice about 1m thick. So shows ice over 1m thick.
Just eyeballing 2016 to 2017 at top, to the same day in 2012. Even if this is just very approximate, 2012 looks much worse.
I may have to revise my guestimates for Sept. minimums.
Still looking forward to the next 'Inner Basin' volume chart though.
Looks really bad in the Arctic Ocean 2012.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2017, 12:39:37 AM by Thomas Barlow »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2497 on: July 02, 2017, 11:00:28 PM »
Yes, I think you are right.
Here I deleted all ice about 1m thick. So shows ice over 1m thick.
Just eyeballing 2016 to 2017 at top, to the same day in 2012. Even if this is just very approximate, 2012 looks much worse.
I may have to revise my guestimates for Sept. minimums.
Still looking forward to the next 'Inner Basin' volume chart though.
Looks really bad in the Arctic Ocean 2012.

good job, very informative, thanks :-)

<Snipped 80% of the quote. Don't quote several quotes in a row, just quote the part you're reacting to, thanks; N>
« Last Edit: July 03, 2017, 12:59:02 AM by magnamentis »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2498 on: July 02, 2017, 11:30:52 PM »
Quote
<Snipped 80% of the quote. Don't quote several quotes in a row, just quote the part you're reacting to, thanks; N>
good job, much appreciated, thanks :-) :good; magnificent, just sayin, LOL ad nauseam ..........................

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2499 on: July 03, 2017, 12:27:47 AM »
Is it possible that the big discrepancy between the eastern Arctic, especially Greenland, and the western Arctic, that means the Pacific side, plays a role in the low temperature average? The Pacific side definitely is not cold at all, while the Atlantic side rather destroys ice by export and storms and not so much by heat (but both sides seem to work hand in hand in a way ... ).
It's the wind that blows from the Pacific across the Pole, by then has become cold North wind, over Svalbard and Greenland, all thru the Arctic losing energy to melt ice and heat cold ice, plus the remnants of the past storm.
2007 is the paramount example of this kind of circulation sustained for months since spring and all thru July. Have a look to 2007 DMI temps... Mostly negative anomalies for months. The year of so bad pacific side meltout.
DMI 80 N is not clearly correlated with melting, period.
Said so LMV is all right in pointing really anomalous cold dip. We will see.


Am I wrong in assuming that the demise of the asi is  most greatly influenced by the broken jet stream? Depending if the Arctic has less sea ice or no sea ice the sea water is much warmer than the land surfaces in September, creating rising air over the ocean, thus a low pressure area over the water and high pressure area over the surrounding land masses. The air circulation pattern over the Arctic Ocean is more counterclockwise drawing warm surface waters into the Arctic from the open seas north of Svalbaard eventually bringing more  heat with rain less snow.
Large amounts of warm air will NOT STOP pouring into the arctic from  the equator. The jet stream is broken, there is NO barrier for cold air to stay in the Arctic. As complicated as the Arctic environment is the one thing that seems to dominate is the cascading feedbacks of a nonexistent jet stream.

I know this is a simplified explanation but it seems that the jet stream was the thread that held it all together and it's all but non-existent. Can someone elucidate?
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