@jdallen
an understandable point of view which probably won't be totally off but the there are few things
to consider:
a) it's colder in the cab than in the barnetz
b) there is less insolation in the cab than in the barentz
c) there is less open water (wave action and energy) in the cab than in the barentz
d) there is less heat close by, be it water bound or in the air
e) the surrounding ice is more mass than further south.
Thank you for your points.
I'm aware of the differences regionally.
I'd disagree that "heat near by" really makes a signficant difference except by way of facilitating the creation of melt ponds. Right now that's moot in my opinion.
What is relevant is ocean heat and insolation. To a lesser degree rainfall may come into play, but still is a lower reservior of heat that the other two factors.
I will agree that intruding Atlantic water into the Barentzs provides significant heat, and that insolation is declining. However, we have 8 weeks left in the melt season, and the lions share of that work in August will be bottom rather than top melt.
I'll add that the region I'm considering is adjacent to the Barentzs and is subject to much the same forces the Barentzs is.
On the Pacific side, the situation is actually much more dire, much is at lower latitude will be getting more insolation for longer longer.
Lastly, I think you are underestimating the potential for storms to stir up wave action inside of the CAB. There is nothing like the contiguous stretches of ice we saw in previous years. It is much more like 2013, that by the end did resemble a bowl of ice cubes. The thing that saved us that year was persistent cloudiness *and* virtually stagnant airflow. That's not been the case this year. Those gaps between blocks are measured in 10's of KM, which is far and away enough to cause 1-2M swells given even a modest 20-30KPH surface wind. Those swells would be both very destructive to the relatively weak frangible ice we have, *and* the ability of that wind to move both water and ice around will prompt ekman pumping bringing up heat from depth far more easily than in the past.
We will need better weather than we've been getting to save the ice.
If we get a GAC as we did in 2012, I think the results this year would be far more dire. I will be watching the coming hurricane season with intense interest.