Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2017 melting season  (Read 1843948 times)

FishOutofWater

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1088
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 696
  • Likes Given: 332
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3400 on: August 02, 2017, 04:08:10 AM »
Eddies in the Baffin bay are mixing the thick mass of fresh water that pushed down the west side of the bay. A strong current of warm, salty water from the Atlantic runs up the west coast of Greenland. That warm water is rapidly melting away the remaining ice as it mixes with the fresh water. Strong southerly winds have increased the mixing and melting.

Icebergs will be able to survive the melt season, not sea ice, in Baffin bay.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1678
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3401 on: August 02, 2017, 04:29:41 AM »
In regards to the melt season being less than spectacular, I think the reason is very simple; The energy budget for the energy entering the Arctic, including that which comes from lower latitudes has, for a number of reasons, been distributed somewhat more evenly throughout the year. That means a milder summer, but a less cold winter, accompanied by winter storms. Much of the heat that in prior winters was blocked by various mechanisms, PV and jetstream and so on, can leak into the Arctic year around now versus saving itself up each year waiting on a summer passport.

                                                                                                                                       

This looks different.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3402 on: August 02, 2017, 04:49:10 AM »
7-31 to 8-1 on UBremen must have easily been 200K if not 300K KM2 area. WOW. The day over day difference is enormous and in the Beaufort a massive chunk of extent simply vanished!

Coffee Drinker

  • New ice
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3403 on: August 02, 2017, 05:05:43 AM »
In regards to the melt season being less than spectacular, I think the reason is very simple; The energy budget for the energy entering the Arctic, including that which comes from lower latitudes has, for a number of reasons, been distributed somewhat more evenly throughout the year. That means a milder summer, but a less cold winter, accompanied by winter storms. Much of the heat that in prior winters was blocked by various mechanisms, PV and jetstream and so on, can leak into the Arctic year around now versus saving itself up each year waiting on a summer passport.


Wonder what the long term effect of this pattern will be for arctic glaciers at higher altitudes. All this additional precipitation and lower summer temp may have some effect.

Retron

  • New ice
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3404 on: August 02, 2017, 05:22:03 AM »
7-31 to 8-1 on UBremen must have easily been 200K if not 300K KM2 area. WOW. The day over day difference is enormous and in the Beaufort a massive chunk of extent simply vanished!
It's an impressive loss, that's for sure! (GIF below shows 31st July / 1st August images)


Cook

  • New ice
  • Posts: 40
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3405 on: August 02, 2017, 05:36:21 AM »
I guess this could be called "the cliff".

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1678
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3406 on: August 02, 2017, 05:43:14 AM »
JAXA is showing it right at about a one century drop, but the storm left a lot more ice set up to go soon.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Watching_from_Canberra

  • New ice
  • Posts: 67
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3407 on: August 02, 2017, 06:47:28 AM »
Would you believe JAXA is also showing that the Antarctic extent has dropped more in the last 2 days than the Arctic??  (Sorry - a bit OT.)

Cid_Yama

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
    • The Post Peak Oil Historian
  • Liked: 27
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3408 on: August 02, 2017, 08:06:22 AM »
Here is a comparison of AMSR-2 over the last several years.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0801
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1678
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3409 on: August 02, 2017, 08:15:13 AM »
Would you believe JAXA is also showing that the Antarctic extent has dropped more in the last 2 days than the Arctic??  (Sorry - a bit OT.)

We have done the responsible thing and moved the conversation on this, but still, it makes one wonder if there is not some kind of symbiosis at play between the two fields of sea ice. That is within an analogy in which they are alive.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Cid_Yama

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
    • The Post Peak Oil Historian
  • Liked: 27
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3410 on: August 02, 2017, 08:17:16 AM »
I guess this could be called "the cliff".

Looks that way.  Reminds me of the end of August last year, where I was thinking if we had another month of melt season we would be in real trouble.

This time, we still have that month and then some.   
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

Pavel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3411 on: August 02, 2017, 09:02:57 AM »
By the end of season much of the area north of 80 may drop below 15% concentration. There will remain ice for sure but extent could be very low

Glenn Tamblyn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 128
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3412 on: August 02, 2017, 09:19:36 AM »
Contrast Wipneus' area and extent graphs for the CAB for 01/08/2017.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

One sure looks a bit 'cliffy'.

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3413 on: August 02, 2017, 10:01:52 AM »
Animation of the last "worst case 48 hours composite". You see how the last three Hamburg images (30th, 31st, 01st) are merged together, thereby you can observe the limits of the method (distortion by drift, double count of dark pixels). But altogether it gives an additional insight, I think.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 10:15:47 AM by Thawing Thunder »
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

NeilT

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6275
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 386
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3414 on: August 02, 2017, 10:44:05 AM »
Makes me rather glad that I put my poll bid in before I saw that.

I have felt for a while now that this torn up CAB and thin ice are going to have their say before the melting season is over.

Sort of open water and sub 1M ice meets minor storm. Strom wins...

The bigger question, in my mind, is how long it will take for the Atlantic side to suffer the same fate.  Not certain of course, but you just need to look at the way the graphics are trending to see that a good 1/3 of the CAB is at risk of a moderate melting event.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

wallen

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 115
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3415 on: August 02, 2017, 10:55:11 AM »
Given the outcome of this storm. One wonders what impact a much stronger storm may have. Weather patterns over then next few weeks will be keenly observed.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3416 on: August 02, 2017, 11:08:56 AM »
Yes, a surprisingly strong effect for a weak storm. It's mostly cloudy today in the worst-affected area, but here's a gif of what is peeking through. First 2 frames are July 29 and 31 (the 30th was cloudy); 3rd frame is Aug 1. Note the rapid acceleration in change over 1 day compared to 2 preceding days: ice edge, melting out in regions inside the edge (e.g. right side of image), and pronounced darkening.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 607
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 226
  • Likes Given: 292
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3417 on: August 02, 2017, 11:15:49 AM »
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1678
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3418 on: August 02, 2017, 11:26:06 AM »
Given the outcome of this storm. One wonders what impact a much stronger storm may have. Weather patterns over then next few weeks will be keenly observed.
I am not sure it even takes an actual storm so much as just any circulation and movement at this point, though a storm may be faster in regard to the demise of the pac.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

deconstruct

  • New ice
  • Posts: 54
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3419 on: August 02, 2017, 12:48:16 PM »
The extent trend is very much down, but if you take a chart of just the last 10 years 2007-2016, and just of the extent minima, you will see a relatively flat chart.
So what? That is just plain cherry-picking. Of course you will get a flat trend, if you start in a year with an exceptional low value and use only a short period of time (so that the overall long-term trend will not beat that short-term variation).This is exactly the same as people bragging about that there was no global warming since 1998 or in the last 10-15 years.
https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

But those trends are not statistically significant, not even close. There is nothing you can get out of such an "analysis". The only thing you see is short-term variation. If you just include 2006 in your time-span, the trend is already strongly downward, so if you have such a dramatic change by just including one more data point, you certainly know, that you have to included to few data points in the first place.


subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3420 on: August 02, 2017, 12:50:56 PM »
Ice soup from the Western Beaufort through to to Severnaya Zemlya (not New Siberian I slands, oops), with scarsely a 5km floe in the mush, and open water
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 12:58:42 PM by subgeometer »

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3421 on: August 02, 2017, 01:06:33 PM »
It's not just this storm I think,  a lt has been hidden under cloud for weeks and now they open for a bit,  there's been a lot of warm air and moisture entering  and s,, the storm gave thin ice about to expire a little push

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3422 on: August 02, 2017, 01:36:54 PM »
The extent trend is very much down, but if you take a chart of just the last 10 years 2007-2016, and just of the extent minima, you will see a relatively flat chart.
So what? That is just plain cherry-picking. Of course you will get a flat trend, if you start in a year with an exceptional low value and use only a short period of time (so that the overall long-term trend will not beat that short-term variation).This is exactly the same as people bragging about that there was no global warming since 1998 or in the last 10-15 years.
https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

But those trends are not statistically significant, not even close. There is nothing you can get out of such an "analysis". The only thing you see is short-term variation. If you just include 2006 in your time-span, the trend is already strongly downward, so if you have such a dramatic change by just including one more data point, you certainly know, that you have to included to few data points in the first place.
Oh, please rev it down a little, Deconstruct! Oren was not defending that flawed "last 10 years the minima is flat" position, he was merely explaining how exactly some other people - not himself, - happen to develop such a (bad) idea. I think. I.e. you don't need to convince Oren about what you said here - he knows it himself extremely very well, i bet! ;)
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 01:44:27 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3423 on: August 02, 2017, 01:54:29 PM »
Interesting ECMWF forecast, with high pressure taking over the peripheries, and low pressure briefly plunging to 979 hPa on D4:
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

VeliAlbertKallio

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 286
  • Eheu fugaces labuntur anni
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 134
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3424 on: August 02, 2017, 02:02:01 PM »
This is what vertical mixing of water does easily for thin and broken ice: the clearing of sea ice from within the ice. The perfect example of localised vertical mixing melting out regions from within pack. As the ice gets thinner (let's hope cold winter), it could appear everywhere - with whole sea opening almost overnight. This is when I compared in the past pulverizing sea ice to an oil slick.
Yes, a surprisingly strong effect for a weak storm. It's mostly cloudy today in the worst-affected area, but here's a gif of what is peeking through. First 2 frames are July 29 and 31 (the 30th was cloudy); 3rd frame is Aug 1. Note the rapid acceleration in change over 1 day compared to 2 preceding days: ice edge, melting out in regions inside the edge (e.g. right side of image), and pronounced darkening.
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3425 on: August 02, 2017, 02:07:59 PM »
The extent trend is very much down, but if you take a chart of just the last 10 years 2007-2016, and just of the extent minima, you will see a relatively flat chart.
So what? That is just plain cherry-picking. Of course you will get a flat trend, if you start in a year with an exceptional low value and use only a short period of time (so that the overall long-term trend will not beat that short-term variation).This is exactly the same as people bragging about that there was no global warming since 1998 or in the last 10-15 years.
I totally agree with you (and thank you F. Tnioli). A new poster was asking a question about a "faux hiatus" of extent minima, instead of dismissing it I chose to respond in detail by pointing out that other sea ice parameters continued to show the trend - the same as ocean heat content continuing to build during the "faux hiatus" in temps. I'll avoid any further comments on this as it's become OT.

iceman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3426 on: August 02, 2017, 02:18:21 PM »
.... The energy budget for the energy entering the Arctic, including that which comes from lower latitudes has, for a number of reasons, been distributed somewhat more evenly throughout the year....

Sounds like a good overarching explanation, but doesn't directly account for the (presumed) negative feedback of increased snow cover.  That would be a bigger drag during the melt season than reduced heat advection from lower latitudes.
                                                                                                                                       

p.s.

Ryan Maue posted this image recently on twitter.
I know people have mixed feelings about this guy but his visualizations are 2nd to none....

Sorry, can't let this pass.  No one's visualizations on this topic surpass A-Team's, in my estimation.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3427 on: August 02, 2017, 02:21:41 PM »
I forgot to post this a couple of days ago, DMI SSTa July 28th 2012 vs 2016 vs 2017:
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

VeliAlbertKallio

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 286
  • Eheu fugaces labuntur anni
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 134
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3428 on: August 02, 2017, 02:41:23 PM »
The pulverization of sea ice ejects its coldness to the surrounding water and air increasingly efficiently as per the surviving ice mass. As ice gets warmer and weaker it further pulverizes to eject its coldness (due to the growth of its water-sitting 3D-surface area). The oil-slick like sea ice's  tipping point is a rapid, near vertical cliff edge once there is not enough of this 'ARIEL' left to dissolve more coldness into sea water and air. A rapid flip to the 'blue ocean' results, this then (within just a few summers) accumulates enough heat for exhaustive ablation of all Arctic glaciers. The low-lying north Greenland ice sheet builds water within its ice and beneath it most rapidly until the whole flat-lying ice sheet collapses due to (the newly discovered) process "Glacier Debris Flow" (GDF):  Meyer, Robinson: "When Glaciers Transform Into Deadly 150-mph Avalanches - After happening only once in the 100-year record, catastrophic glacial collapse occurred twice in Tibet this summer", The Atlantic | Science, 18 October 2016. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/10/glaciers-can-collapse-in-seconds-not-years/504458/ There are four rapid erosion forces (cavitation, plucking, kolking - and above all - planing) pp. 24-25 to enhance Greenland Ice Sheet's glacier debris flow, the ultimate cause of the Heindrich Ice Berg Calving (D-O) events.  :-[
https://www.academia.edu/33000316/MPs_to_review_UKs_role_in_Arctic_sustainability_-_24th_April_2017.docx
In regards to the melt season being less than spectacular, I think the reason is very simple; The energy budget for the energy entering the Arctic, including that which comes from lower latitudes has, for a number of reasons, been distributed somewhat more evenly throughout the year. That means a milder summer, but a less cold winter, accompanied by winter storms. Much of the heat that in prior winters was blocked by various mechanisms, PV and jetstream and so on, can leak into the Arctic year around now versus saving itself up each year waiting on a summer passport.


Wonder what the long term effect of this pattern will be for arctic glaciers at higher altitudes. All this additional precipitation and lower summer temp may have some effect.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 02:48:27 PM by VeliAlbertKallio »
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3429 on: August 02, 2017, 02:44:14 PM »
SSTA for 8-01 from 2015 to 2017 according to NOAA.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3430 on: August 02, 2017, 02:45:27 PM »
Interesting ECMWF forecast, with high pressure taking over the peripheries, and low pressure briefly plunging to 979 hPa on D4:
D4 is a bit too far if i know anything about your tastes, Neven. I'm a bit surprised you're looking anything further than D3, at this time. So, are you trying to figure out if that D4 could in fact develop into something stronger as we get closer? Do you have your guts feeling conditions favorable to GAC devastation start to form up? In other words, i'm just curious how you'd estimate likelyhood of any serious August GAC event, at this time.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3431 on: August 02, 2017, 02:45:58 PM »
Fast ice off the NE corner of Greenland slowly being dragged towards Fram. July 14th - Aug 1st.

Daniel B.

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 659
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3432 on: August 02, 2017, 02:49:05 PM »
The extent trend is very much down, but if you take a chart of just the last 10 years 2007-2016, and just of the extent minima, you will see a relatively flat chart.
So what? That is just plain cherry-picking. Of course you will get a flat trend, if you start in a year with an exceptional low value and use only a short period of time (so that the overall long-term trend will not beat that short-term variation).This is exactly the same as people bragging about that there was no global warming since 1998 or in the last 10-15 years.
https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

But those trends are not statistically significant, not even close. There is nothing you can get out of such an "analysis". The only thing you see is short-term variation. If you just include 2006 in your time-span, the trend is already strongly downward, so if you have such a dramatic change by just including one more data point, you certainly know, that you have to included to few data points in the first place.

By your method the entire satellite trend is not statistically significant.  That does not mean that it does not exist.  Look at your graph.  This highest data point was 1996, and the lowest was 2012.  Can you confidently say that the entire graph shows a linear decline?  Longer-term data sets show that the extend in 1996 was not too different from that 60 years prior. 

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01b7c809c471970b-pi

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3433 on: August 02, 2017, 02:49:37 PM »
...
p.s.

Ryan Maue posted this image recently on twitter.
I know people have mixed feelings about this guy but his visualizations are 2nd to none....

Sorry, can't let this pass.  No one's visualizations on this topic surpass A-Team's, in my estimation.
A-Team's are sometimes just perfect, yes. Can't beat perfection. :)
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

nukefix

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 27
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3434 on: August 02, 2017, 03:02:31 PM »
The low-lying north Greenland ice sheet builds water within its ice and beneath it most rapidly until the whole flat-lying ice sheet collapses due to (the newly discovered) process "Glacier Debris Flow" (GDF):  Meyer, Robinson: "When Glaciers Transform Into Deadly 150-mph Avalanches - After happening only once in the 100-year record, catastrophic glacial collapse occurred twice in Tibet this summer", The Atlantic | Science, 18 October 2016.
That is needless "alarmism". The slope of the Greenland ice sheet is just a few degrees close to the coast (+it's a lot flatter everywhere else) - this very effectively prevents it from turning into a 150-mph avalanche!

VeliAlbertKallio

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 286
  • Eheu fugaces labuntur anni
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 134
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3435 on: August 02, 2017, 03:16:47 PM »
Let's move discussion here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1120.0.html
The low-lying north Greenland ice sheet builds water within its ice and beneath it most rapidly until the whole flat-lying ice sheet collapses due to (the newly discovered) process "Glacier Debris Flow" (GDF):  Meyer, Robinson: "When Glaciers Transform Into Deadly 150-mph Avalanches - After happening only once in the 100-year record, catastrophic glacial collapse occurred twice in Tibet this summer", The Atlantic | Science, 18 October 2016.
That is needless "alarmism". The slope of the Greenland ice sheet is just a few degrees close to the coast (+it's a lot flatter everywhere else) - this very effectively prevents it from turning into a 150-mph avalanche!
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 03:24:31 PM by VeliAlbertKallio »
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3436 on: August 02, 2017, 03:26:56 PM »
While the extent drop is the most eye-catching effect, the past storm has opened and dispersed a vast region of the Pacific side ice pack, already within the CAB, see top region of the last image of JayW gif. That region will be hit again in a few days.
Meanwhile the ship Healy shows these hourly pictures, of half sunk first-year ice at latitude 75. Nothing like last year's Multi Year Ice pictures.
And a great finding of the pictures of buoy IMB 2017A by Jim Hunt shows wide, big pools of water over first-year ice at Latitude 77 about two weeks ago.
While this collapse of the Pacific side will not bring extent to a record low, these images, I fancy, are unusual, more proper of the Hudson Bay than of the Arctic Ocean.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1678
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3437 on: August 02, 2017, 03:29:10 PM »
7-31 to 8-1 on UBremen must have easily been 200K if not 300K KM2 area. WOW. The day over day difference is enormous and in the Beaufort a massive chunk of extent simply vanished!
NSIDC shows the drop at 200k km2, twice what JAXA posted.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3438 on: August 02, 2017, 03:37:22 PM »
@Sterks: nothing unusual (in terms of _this_ season), though; lots of "ice soup" around. Thank you for posting those images, too. I say this topic needs more real-world photos.

@Tigertown: we got official double century from NSIDC, eh? IIRC, the record melt season in terms of number of double centuries had only 3 of those. And IIRC, we had an 199k drop in one of July days, already. But is it 1st official double century, i wonder? I was away for couple weeks in July...
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3439 on: August 02, 2017, 04:03:56 PM »
The extent trend is very much down, but if you take a chart of just the last 10 years 2007-2016, and just of the extent minima, you will see a relatively flat chart.

I've responded here to keep this thread on topic.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 10:41:25 PM by numerobis »

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3440 on: August 02, 2017, 05:03:06 PM »
And a great finding of the pictures of buoy IMB 2017A by Jim Hunt shows wide, big pools of water over first-year ice at Latitude 77 about two weeks ago.

In the absence of recent above ice pictures, the thermistor string and (rather noisy) sounders on 2017A  suggest that the remaining ice near the buoy is now around 20 cm thick:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2017-imb-buoys/#2017A
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

sedziobs

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 395
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 63
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3441 on: August 02, 2017, 05:12:34 PM »
1 day's worth of dispersal in the Pacific sector.  Wrangel is off the top left corner of the image.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3442 on: August 02, 2017, 05:58:58 PM »
D4 is a bit too far if i know anything about your tastes, Neven. I'm a bit surprised you're looking anything further than D3, at this time.

I've always posted the D1-D6 forecast. Why would I do that if I don't look beyond D3? Of course, the forecast becomes more unreliable the further out you go, which is why I almost never post anything beyond D6.

Quote
So, are you trying to figure out if that D4 could in fact develop into something stronger as we get closer?


No, I'm not trying to figure that out. I would think the ECMWF model is better at it than I am. I'm only seeing a short-lived plunge to 979 hPa, which is not nothing, but it's not anything like a GAC yet either. Maybe that will change in the next run, but probably not by much.

Quote
Do you have your guts feeling conditions favorable to GAC devastation start to form up? In other words, i'm just curious how you'd estimate likelyhood of any serious August GAC event, at this time.

I think a GAC like we saw in 2012 or last year is always possible now.

As I wrote back in 2012 on the ASIB:

Quote
I'm hesitant calling this the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012, or Arcticane, or some such. What if we see a similar cyclone in 2013 or 2014? We'll run out of names.

Mind you, I don't want to downplay the importance and magnitude of this storm, it's by far the biggest thing I have seen in the Arctic since I started the blog, but to me this whole event isn't about the storm itself, but about a possible new regime - a new aspect of the new abnormal - with big summer storms in the middle of the Arctic. Or who knows maybe next time a bit closer to the coast.

Whether we have a GAC this year, I don't know. It's certainly possible.

But I'm not that into forecasting, as much as I'm into analysing what's going on. Which is why I said I'd rather not see a GAC muddy the water, but just observe how much ice will melt out anyway without ice-destroying weather. That's looking at it from the analysis-POV.

Of course, if we do get a GAC, it will be spectacular. And that'd be pretty cool, from the spectacle-POV.

Looking from the consequences-POV, everything sucks. There is no good news whatsoever, except perhaps for Greenland.  :(
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Sam

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3443 on: August 02, 2017, 06:03:52 PM »
Neven,

In addition to the depth of the low that is forming, the wind speeds on the ice look to reach over 30 mph off Ellesmere.  At the same time, the pacific sector looks poised for major drops in area and extent over the next week. 

On Aug 3, the extents for the three lowest years and 2017 will be very nearly identical. The fate of the ice for 2017 should become much clearer in the next two weeks.

Sam

mustangchef

  • New ice
  • Posts: 27
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3444 on: August 02, 2017, 06:11:51 PM »
The entire Northwest Territory has heated up and the air is headed straight north.https://www.windy.com/?temp,63.841,-115.181,5
Also I see the part of the west coast of Greenland approaching 70 degrees.
Just seems like a cresent of heat girdling the bottom half of Greenland.
sometimes

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3445 on: August 02, 2017, 07:15:00 PM »
... I don't understand why we are not racing towards a record low in SIE.
You sure do, come on? Atlantic's relatively cold this year, for one. Late melt ponding due to higher than normal snow cover, for two. Much broken Jet Stream, which - for a change, - gives among other things the negative feedback of more clouds in the Arctic during summer solstice - for three. And there is possibly the fourth thing which perhaps cools things down more than the three above combined, but i don't feel fancy even mentioning it here and now. And it's still a low extent year.

Yes this has been a mild melt season, cloudy and cooler than normal and, yes, I believe that a warmer, moister climate regime is establishing itself over the polar region which results in higher precipitation and, given the temperatures, falls as snow more often than rain. This has an uncertain effect over the quality of the sea ice as it insulates the ice from the bitter cold of the polar night, reducing thickening while simultaneously delaying melt due to higher albedo.

Never the less, we entered this melt season with sea ice in a condition never before witnessed, lowest max volume recorded and thinner than ever. Over the past decade, the sea ice has been pulverized into small floes and is more mobile as well.

I get that you are drifting in serene certainty regarding the Arctic (both things stated and secrets held from those to dense to comprehend) but is it OK if I still don't understand how SIE is not plummeting to an all time, record shattering low?  ;)

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2357
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3446 on: August 02, 2017, 08:03:06 PM »
Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20378
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3447 on: August 02, 2017, 08:07:02 PM »
The Fourth Thing !!! Area 51 ? Lord Voldemor ?
I want to know !
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Steven

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 957
    • View Profile
    • Arctic sea ice data and graphs
  • Liked: 481
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3448 on: August 02, 2017, 08:31:56 PM »
Latest weekly MODIS 7-day composite image from Environment Canada:

Latest one:



Here are the corresponding images for 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 and (in a different format) 2012.

Apia

  • New ice
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3449 on: August 02, 2017, 09:22:34 PM »
Has anyone any idea of what these pictures show ?

It's the Beaufort sea, the Banks ileland is on the right.
It cannot be a thunderbold; it's straight and 10's/100's km wide + on pic 3, 4, 5 you can see the explosive nature of it, black smoke is rising
Is this a geological phenomena?  If it is, it has to be added to the Greenland melt on the 29th and can explain the sudden melt event on August 1st.

These were extracted from:
...
I attached AVHRR Imagery to show the clouds.
http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=hrpt&area=dfo&type=nir

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=382.0;attach=49261
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 09:30:12 PM by Apia »