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be cause

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3650 on: August 08, 2017, 06:00:32 PM »
over the coming days snow becomes the dominating weather on the surface . Desert conditions have deserted the Arctic . It seems strange that in conditions I would consider extreme winter , my chief concern is that we may still see record low area/volume .
However pretty the hue of blue ice ponds are in June , my feel is that this is the most important time of year at this stage in the evolution of the new Arctic . The stage is set . If melt continues at the edges and below the ice even as it freezes and snows above , a late minimum is likely to be a very low one ... 
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3651 on: August 08, 2017, 07:35:59 PM »
The minimums for all three measures, volume, extent and area will be very low but my biggest concern about this new, stormy and humid Arctic climate is the impact it has on the freeze season. We no longer get brutally cold temperatures causing ice to freeze 2 meters or more. We instead have new and existing ice insulated by anomalously deep snow, preventing the warming Arctic winters from building a thick ice sheet across the Arctic.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3652 on: August 08, 2017, 07:58:04 PM »
Because it's going to be pounding the pack like this, in the exact same place, for two days in a row, one can imagine a much bigger effect than its already low 972 HPa imply.
Not much on volume, but much on area and eventually on extent

numerobis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3653 on: August 08, 2017, 08:25:52 PM »
According to Sterks's image, so much for all that export through the Fram and Nares.

Instead, it's export to the Beaufort, where it inexorably melts. That's new in my lifetime.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3654 on: August 08, 2017, 10:35:55 PM »
Export to the Beaufort. Now there's a phrase to make you sit and think twice.

The more I watch, the less I know about the Arctic.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3655 on: August 09, 2017, 12:17:53 AM »
The next pulse of swell is currently forecast to be somewhat bigger and longer period than the last one. This one is also taking aim at the Beaufort Sea marginal ice zone:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2017/#Aug-8
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cesium62

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3656 on: August 09, 2017, 01:15:55 AM »
However pretty the hue of blue ice ponds are in June , my feel is that this is the most important time of year at this stage in the evolution of the new Arctic .
The story this year has been low volume.  The warm winter was not able to restore the ice lost last summer.  Therefore the relatively few melt ponds in June and the relatively high snow cover weren't able to make up for the weak and mobile ice.  December or January may well be the most important time of year at this stage in the evolution of the new Arctic.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3657 on: August 09, 2017, 07:17:30 AM »
1 day change in Bremen concentration. 3 versions attached: Original, last under 90 filter, median filter (5 day period). Choose your poison.

Pacific continues to erode and contract towards the CAA, with anti-clockwise motion in the direction of storm winds apparent throughout the Arctic, as anticipated by Sterks' post above. Such large scale coordinated motion cannot be good for the halocline.
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3658 on: August 09, 2017, 07:37:00 AM »
Not to mention, it's getting pounded as we speak. This will be a telling week...
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Pavel

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3659 on: August 09, 2017, 09:25:34 AM »
It's going to be very hot in nothern Canada. The melting momentum will be powerful in CAA that still have much of ice
https://earth.nullschool.net/?#2017/08/13/0000Z/wind/surface/level/anim=off/overlay=temp/orthographic=-102.55,73.02,3000/loc=-104.429,67.417

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3660 on: August 09, 2017, 10:24:58 AM »
The story this year has been low volume.  The warm winter was not able to restore the ice lost last summer.  Therefore the relatively few melt ponds in June and the relatively high snow cover weren't able to make up for the weak and mobile ice.

That's exactly it. We've seen weather similar to 2013 and 2014, the rebound years that followed 2012 (someone over on the ASIB just wrote that "According to the NOAA-ESRL measurements 2017 has been colder than 2013 and 2014 in both the Arctic and the high Arctic (80N+) over most of the May - Jul period and on average"), but 2017 just keeps digging low.

This is perhaps the most educative melting season I've seen. It means that when volume is as low as it was after a mild winter, and the weather is just slightly less clement than it was this year during May-June-July, records will be broken for sure. And I dare say than when such low volume ice at the end of winter is presented with the build-up of melting momentum seen in 2010 and 2012, or the endlessly clear skies of 2007, the Arctic could go below 1 million km2 SIA, ice-free for all practical purposes.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3661 on: August 09, 2017, 12:45:32 PM »
The northern route is open now, only a bit of slush to delay a yacht around Vilkitsky strait


Those who should know best suggest there's still more than mere "slush" around there:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2017/
« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 01:27:50 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3662 on: August 09, 2017, 01:22:57 PM »
Because it's going to be pounding the pack like this, in the exact same place, for two days in a row, one can imagine a much bigger effect than its already low 972 HPa imply.
Not much on volume, but much on area and eventually on extent

972 is low, yes. More, just yesterday, as posted by Deconstruct in #3462, GFS and ECMWF were predicting 984 and 983 for today, respectively. Instead, we have 972 today _already_. By the same post, yesterday, we also have 976 and 972 predicted for tomorrow, respectively. I.e. models said, yesterday, that there will be a BIG drop in pressure from today to tomorrow. A drop like 972 -> 963, you know. If that wouldn't be a GAC, then what would.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3663 on: August 09, 2017, 02:10:59 PM »

That's exactly it. We've seen weather similar to 2013 and 2014, the rebound years that followed 2012 (someone over on the ASIB just wrote that "According to the NOAA-ESRL measurements 2017 has been colder than 2013 and 2014 in both the Arctic and the high Arctic (80N+) over most of the May - Jul period and on average"), but 2017 just keeps digging low.

This is perhaps the most educative melting season I've seen. It means that when volume is as low as it was after a mild winter, and the weather is just slightly less clement than it was this year during May-June-July, records will be broken for sure. And I dare say than when such low volume ice at the end of winter is presented with the build-up of melting momentum seen in 2010 and 2012, or the endlessly clear skies of 2007, the Arctic could go below 1 million km2 SIA, ice-free for all practical purposes.

If the extent loss of 2012 had been repeated this year, we would be looking at a Jaxa  minimum extent of around 2.5 million km2. There is no reason to suppose the situation will improve. Just one more mild wild winter to finish the job?
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3664 on: August 09, 2017, 02:23:58 PM »
Nothing's decided for this season yet, so, that 1 more mild winter, - may (even) be it won't be needed. Current storm is hitting almost the same week GAC 2012 was at its peak power, and i believe models are utterly failing to predict how it will develop... To be quite honest here.

We need direct observation results, - now and especially in about 1 week from now.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3665 on: August 09, 2017, 04:25:33 PM »
There is a paper out on the persistent Arctic Cyclone of 2016 that noted its feeding on other warm core lows that entered the basin?
If we see this low acting in a similar way and holding its station whilst capturing the cores of other lows we might be seeing the development of a 'new' summer feature over the basin?

Bottom melt end of the season must itself be in change as we see the old ,deep, halocline layer mixed out over the basin so enabling better mixing of the warmer, saltier bottom waters?

If we end up with the bottom melt end of the season a period where the ice is denatured across the high arctic ( and spread out into warmer peripheral areas?) then we might be seeing the evolution of the method that brings us ice free each summer but then adds into WACCy weather misery as early snows blight the far north ( as we saw in Siberia last October?)?
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3666 on: August 09, 2017, 04:31:03 PM »


We need direct observation results, - now and especially in about 1 week from now.

Seeing is believing.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3667 on: August 09, 2017, 05:19:42 PM »


We need direct observation results, - now and especially in about 1 week from now.

Seeing is believing.
Ice is water. Liking is feeling. Jumping is moving. Etc etc. Those are all misleading. Please, don't.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3668 on: August 09, 2017, 05:29:27 PM »


We need direct observation results, - now and especially in about 1 week from now.

Seeing is believing.
Ice is water. Liking is feeling. Jumping is moving. Etc etc. Those are all misleading. Please, don't.

??? Not sure I understand the response.

I was agreeing with you. We have a variety of ways of directly observing in a highly accurate manner the state of the ice and I am certain that the next couple of weeks will do exactly what you have said is needed.

I stated several weeks ago, I did not expect a new record. I still don't but if our direct observations indicate we have, I will believe them.

NeilT

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3669 on: August 09, 2017, 05:34:38 PM »


We need direct observation results, - now and especially in about 1 week from now.

Seeing is believing.

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Daniel B.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3670 on: August 09, 2017, 05:40:02 PM »


We need direct observation results, - now and especially in about 1 week from now.

Seeing is believing.
Ice is water. Liking is feeling. Jumping is moving. Etc etc. Those are all misleading. Please, don't.

??? Not sure I understand the response.

I was agreeing with you. We have a variety of ways of directly observing in a highly accurate manner the state of the ice and I am certain that the next couple of weeks will do exactly what you have said is needed.

I stated several weeks ago, I did not expect a new record. I still don't but if our direct observations indicate we have, I will believe them.

I found it strange also.  I tend to agree with you that we will not set a new record this year.  The sea ice has been trending alongside 2007 and 2016 for the better part of the past month.  I see this year ending somewhere between 2nd and 4th, depending on the weather over the next six weeks.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3671 on: August 09, 2017, 05:48:51 PM »
According to the 06Z Environment Canada synopsis the latest cyclone is down to 980 hPa MSLP:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2017/#Aug-9
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3672 on: August 09, 2017, 08:34:12 PM »
So what do your bones tell you Jim? Is open water Arctic a thing that would favour cyclone formation/endurance or is this post 2012 'cloudy summer Arctic' a passing phase?

I'm starting to believe it is a  poorly modelled (?) 'response to open water peripheries' around the  basin over early summer?

I see it as a 'useful' turn of events if you wish to set about fragmenting ever thinner ice floes into ever smaller shards ( dependent on wavelength/height?) and so speeding ice loss via increased surface area to mass ratio's exposed to overturned warm,salty water?

The other thing is the mixing out of any deep halocline within any 'active region' of the ocean surface. Does most of the basin posses the deep halocline it used to have? what does that mean for the ice?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3673 on: August 09, 2017, 09:00:55 PM »
So what do your bones tell you Jim? Is open water Arctic a thing that would favour cyclone formation/endurance or is this post 2012 'cloudy summer Arctic' a passing phase?


My bones suggest more open water is likely to lead to more cyclones. Please don't ask me to prove it!

I see it as a 'useful' turn of events if you wish to set about fragmenting ever thinner ice floes into ever smaller shards ( dependent on wavelength/height?) and so speeding ice loss via increased surface area to mass ratio's exposed to overturned warm,salty water?


More open water + more cyclones = more long distance Arctic swells. However much like forecasting the surf at your local beach break the precise path of the lows has a big impact on the eventual outcome. The tracks of the current "cannonballs" do seem to be furthering breakup of the Chukchi/Beaufort MIZ.

The other thing is the mixing out of any deep halocline within any 'active region' of the ocean surface. Does most of the basin posses the deep halocline it used to have? what does that mean for the ice?


You may wish to peruse the "Buoys" thread, where an actual Arctic scientist is now taking questions on that type of topic:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg124501.html#msg124501
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Pi26

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3674 on: August 09, 2017, 10:51:40 PM »
According to the 06Z Environment Canada synopsis the latest cyclone is down to 980 hPa MSLP:


Some hours later ECMWF had it at 977 mb and forecasts it at 974 mb 24 hours later.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 11:26:31 PM by Pi26 »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3675 on: August 10, 2017, 12:02:50 AM »
"...to finish the job?"

Misconception. I disagree! The job isn't "finished" at that point, but only at its very beginning! The ocean melting advances and its re-freeze delays further. This exposes the ocean to sunlight much closer to the solstice and then staying exposed to that sunlight for longer. I say, this will be the beginning, not the end! This because sun's extra energy from growing insolation will be mopped up by the glaciers, permafrost soils and seabed containing methane. The real drama, 'ko.yaa.nis.katsi', then begins.  :-\

That's exactly it. We've seen weather similar to 2013 and 2014, the rebound years that followed 2012 (someone over on the ASIB just wrote that "According to the NOAA-ESRL measurements 2017 has been colder than 2013 and 2014 in both the Arctic and the high Arctic (80N+) over most of the May - Jul period and on average"), but 2017 just keeps digging low.

This is perhaps the most educative melting season I've seen. It means that when volume is as low as it was after a mild winter, and the weather is just slightly less clement than it was this year during May-June-July, records will be broken for sure. And I dare say than when such low volume ice at the end of winter is presented with the build-up of melting momentum seen in 2010 and 2012, or the endlessly clear skies of 2007, the Arctic could go below 1 million km2 SIA, ice-free for all practical purposes.

If the extent loss of 2012 had been repeated this year, we would be looking at a Jaxa  minimum extent of around 2.5 million km2. There is no reason to suppose the situation will improve. Just one more mild wild winter to finish the job?
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 12:33:50 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3676 on: August 10, 2017, 01:01:34 AM »
Some hours later ECMWF had it at 977 mb and forecasts it at 974 mb 24 hours later.


The Canadian synopsis had it at 976 hPa at 18Z, and each new WWIII forecast increases the peak wave height:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2017/#Aug-9-PM
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3677 on: August 10, 2017, 03:38:50 AM »
A couple storm loops.  A fairly pronounced dry slot allows for decent sea ice viewing.

First attachment is a79 hour VIIRS loop.  Wrangel island in the lower left
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1

Second attachment is a 46 hour AVHRR loop
http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=hrpt&area=dfo&type=nir
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3678 on: August 10, 2017, 07:18:19 AM »
GFS 00z operational run is interesting as it depicts a intensive cyclone of equal strength to develop in the region between Frans Josefs land and Severnaya Zemlya in about 5 days. The ice is in this area have melted very little this season but should be fairly thin. How will it react to a cyclone of similar strength as the current one over the Pacific side?


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3679 on: August 10, 2017, 08:23:46 AM »
Bremen 1-week animations: unfiltered, last under 90, median (5 day filter).
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3680 on: August 10, 2017, 09:02:29 AM »
The story this year has been low volume.  The warm winter was not able to restore the ice lost last summer.  Therefore the relatively few melt ponds in June and the relatively high snow cover weren't able to make up for the weak and mobile ice.

That's exactly it. We've seen weather similar to 2013 and 2014, the rebound years that followed 2012 (someone over on the ASIB just wrote that "According to the NOAA-ESRL measurements 2017 has been colder than 2013 and 2014 in both the Arctic and the high Arctic (80N+) over most of the May - Jul period and on average"), but 2017 just keeps digging low.

This is perhaps the most educative melting season I've seen....

I agree.
The parameters that I used (land snow cover, ice concentration and ice area) were all pointing to a year similar to 2013/2014. Yet 2017 keeps on going down with the record holders 2007/2012.

I still have some hope (with 2017 being cool, but having low 'extent') that the minimum will come early this year, simply because the ice edge is closer to the NP. So maybe a rebound in the latter part of September will still let 2017 finish quite high.
But that is just wishful thinking at this point.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3681 on: August 10, 2017, 09:03:46 AM »
From Extent Numbers and arctic.io images, the Trend seems to be that Ice is being dispersed by the Storms, thus keeping Extent Decline (relatively) lower, than expected.
But Jetstream Collapse & crossing the Equator plus Extreme Summer Events should give us the whole Picture about the State of the Ice (Slush).

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3682 on: August 10, 2017, 10:11:55 AM »
"...to finish the job?"
Misconception. I disagree! The job isn't "finished" at that point, but only at its very beginning! The ocean melting advances and its re-freeze delays further. This exposes the ocean to sunlight much closer to the solstice and then staying exposed to that sunlight for longer.
But it looks like none of the sunlight is hitting the surface directly due to extensive coverage of low clouds this summer. This could be a feedback resulting from more open water that is preserving the ice.

edit: here's the cloud coverage situation on Friday at 1200UTC. Sun can only hit the surface full on in white areas & the colours depict low/medium/high cloudiness situation.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 10:18:13 AM by nukefix »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3683 on: August 10, 2017, 10:24:54 AM »
The Bremen map is extraordinary!

Could we end up with low concentration all the way up above 85N, even to the pole, while leaving islands of high concentration above the Kara, Laptev & ESS. A term like 'ice edge' may become meaningless.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3684 on: August 10, 2017, 10:50:52 AM »
Here's the cloud coverage situation on Friday at 1200UTC.

That's one I don't think I've seen before. Gotta link?
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3685 on: August 10, 2017, 10:53:17 AM »
A term like 'ice edge' may become meaningless.

Even the term "Marginal Ice Zone" is rapidly becoming synonymous with "Arctic sea ice" at this time of the year.
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nukefix

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3686 on: August 10, 2017, 10:54:47 AM »
Here's the cloud coverage situation on Friday at 1200UTC.

That's one I don't think I've seen before. Gotta link?
That's from ECMWF directly so it's not freely available...(a pity).

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3687 on: August 10, 2017, 11:28:20 AM »
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3688 on: August 10, 2017, 12:09:31 PM »
"...to finish the job?"

Misconception. I disagree! The job isn't "finished" at that point, but only at its very beginning! The ocean melting advances and its re-freeze delays further. This exposes the ocean to sunlight much closer to the solstice and then staying exposed to that sunlight for longer. I say, this will be the beginning, not the end! This because sun's extra energy from growing insolation will be mopped up by the glaciers, permafrost soils and seabed containing methane. The real drama, 'ko.yaa.nis.katsi', then begins.  :-\

Not misconception on his part. Misunderstanding on yours, rather. He meant the specific job of making Arctic go blue for the 1st time, most probably. Even if he didn't mean exactly that, - what he said _means_ exactly that. While what you described - is a set of "next jobs" in line. The term "job", itself, implies finite amount of work required to complete it; what you described is (practically) not finite, but rather geological thing in terms of its timescale. This topic is practical.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3689 on: August 10, 2017, 12:31:03 PM »
GFS 00z operational run is interesting as it depicts a intensive cyclone of equal strength to develop in the region between Frans Josefs land and Severnaya Zemlya in about 5 days....

Any corroboration from other forecast models?  If GFS is correct (low is still 5 days out according to Climate Reanalyzer), winds are likely to blow the higher-concentration ice away from FJL, exposing it to open-ocean wave action for the first time in months.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3690 on: August 10, 2017, 01:01:33 PM »
Neven mentioned the "education" value of this season. I noticed the persistent cooler temps above 80N...DMI...below or near normal every single day since mid-april looks like. Can't find more than a couple similar in the near 60-year interactive they offer. But, as he says...with volume down so far...sheesh, with a slightly milder summer, this melt season could have challenged 2012


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3691 on: August 10, 2017, 01:02:31 PM »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3692 on: August 10, 2017, 04:17:43 PM »
Signs of some swell at Utqiaġvik:

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3693 on: August 10, 2017, 05:09:17 PM »
From Extent Numbers and arctic.io images, the Trend seems to be that Ice is being dispersed by the Storms, thus keeping Extent Decline (relatively) lower, than expected.
But Jetstream Collapse & crossing the Equator plus Extreme Summer Events should give us the whole Picture about the State of the Ice (Slush).


Quite the Contrary.


jplotinus

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3694 on: August 10, 2017, 05:10:00 PM »
PAC near Utqiagvik


A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3695 on: August 10, 2017, 06:52:21 PM »
Scientists aboard a Russian icebreaker were in position to document rain at the North Pole on 05 Aug 2017. On that date, AMSR2 has a pole hole, Hycom shows ~1.75m, Piomas was not yet available. It might be of interest to see what the weather reanalysis products are saying about conditions then, a start on that below.

Details otherwise were unnecessarily sketchy as with most twitter-reported science -- though today twitter has extremely generous file size limits. The ship is shown moored with dozens of people ashore but no ice thickness is given. Thickness alone would inadequately characterize 'buttery' ice.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 07:12:48 PM by A-Team »

A-Team

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3696 on: August 10, 2017, 07:11:36 PM »
GW: a paper out on the persistent Arctic Cyclone of 2016 that noted its feeding on other warm core lows that entered the basin

That would be:

Extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016
A Yamagami et al   12 July 2017
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.757/full

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/08/2016-arctic-cyclone-update-1.html#more
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0755.1 on summer Arctic Frontal Zone
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054259/full classic GAC 2012 account

"An extremely strong Arctic cyclone (AC) developed in August 2016. The AC exhibited a minimum sea level pressure (SLP) of 967.2 hPa and covered the entire Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean on 16 August. At this time, the AC was comparable to the strong AC observed in August 2012, in terms of horizontal extent, position, and intensity as measured by SLP.

Two processes contributed to the explosive development of the AC: growth due to baroclinic instability, similar to extratropical cyclones, during the early phase of the development stage, and later nonlinear development via the merging of upper warm cores. The AC was maintained for more than 1 month through multiple mergings with cyclones both generated in the Arctic and migrating northward from lower latitudes, as a result of the high cyclone activity in summer 2016.

The Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012 is well analyzed as a remarkable summer AC (Simmonds and Rudeva, 2012). They showed that this AC had the lowest central pressure and largest size of any summer AC from 1979 to 2012. Summer ACs have longer lifetimes, are more numerous, and are weaker than those in winter. 

Most cyclones in the Arctic during summer are generated over the Arctic Ocean, and most of the remainder is generated over the northern Eurasian continent. In the context of these previous studies, the intensification of AC in August 2016 was unusual for summer.

ACs have warm (cold) core at upper (lower) level and barotropic vorticity in the troposphere. Previous studies showed that the baroclinicity over the Arctic frontal zone was one of the main factors for generation and intensification of ACs. Recently, Crawford and Serreze (2016) indicated that the baroclinicity affected only on an intensification of ACs. The coupling with lower and upper cyclones was also important for the development of ACs....

Features and mechanisms behind the development of the extreme AC of August 2016: The AC16 arose over the Laptev Sea on 4 August and was maintained for more than 1 month through repeated mergings with other cyclones. The AC16 recorded a minimum SLP of 967.2 hPa and covered the entire Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean.

In addition, the AC16 experienced two notable periods of development after its initial development:

On 15 August, the AC16 merged with a cyclone that originated to the west of the trough over the Scandinavian Peninsula on 11 August. The combined cyclone moved along the northern coast of Eurasia and developed rapidly from 13 to 16 August, with a decrease in central pressure of ∼30 hPa.

The extreme development of the cyclone occurred via two processes: a baroclinic process, as occurs in extratropical cyclones, in the early phase of the development stage and a nonlinear process caused by the merging of the upper-level warm cores in the later phase of the development stage (on 15 August). Simmonds and Rudeva (2012) concluded that not only baroclinicity but also the establishment of a connection with the tropopause polar vortex were important to the development of the AC12. Both processes were also seen during the rapid development of the AC16. Furthermore, our results confirm that a merging of warm cores accelerates the development of the AC16.

The lifetime of the AC16 was much longer than that of the AC12 due to multiple merging events. The merging process is essential to ACs, and it may correspond to the connection between an upper polar vortex and a surface vortex. However, when the cyclones were as strong as the AC16, two vortices were merged with in some cases and not in the other cases. Thus, it is suggested that the occurrence of merging for ACs is not determined by only length scale or strength of cyclones."

NeilT

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3697 on: August 10, 2017, 08:41:50 PM »
The "Laptev Bite" polynya is back!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2017/#Aug-10


It looks really impressive till you stitch together the bottom corners of the 4 images which make up the Laptev destruction..



Then it looks like it's just a part of the mayhem.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3698 on: August 11, 2017, 12:02:21 AM »
Then it looks like it's just a part of the mayhem.

All that area around that big polynya is pushed into the Laptev Sea, opening up the Laptev bite deeply toward exactly that polynya (and maybe even the opposite way toward the Beaufort Sea). Also the whole atlantic side is being pushed into the open waters between the islands. So there isn't any compaction and area & extent won't drop as fast as they should. But I think despite of that it's not a positive sign what's happening there. Probably we can consider us very happy that all this didn't start ten days or a week earlier.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #3699 on: August 11, 2017, 06:19:05 AM »
DavidR said on the ASIB :
According to the NOAA-ESRL measurements 2017 has been colder than 2013 and 2014 in both the Arctic and the high Arctic (80N+) over most of the May - Jul period and on average.

Thanks David, for pointing this out !
As for the where this 'cold' resided during this summer, here is the NOAA spacial plot (May-July, 60-90deg) for 925 mb temperature.

Note that the cold was most intense around the Laptev shoreline, incidentally the same location where the land snow lasted longest, and created that significant land snow anomaly this June :
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 07:12:41 AM by Rob Dekker »