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Author Topic: 2017 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 92905 times)

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #300 on: July 09, 2017, 06:33:20 PM »
Update of the basin-only extent and area graphs. Today's  the string of daily lowest extent for 2017 ended.  The extent drop rate will really have to increase to stay with the lowest years. Area seems to be able to do that.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #301 on: July 10, 2017, 03:40:04 PM »
Small extent drop and a big increase in area makes it feel like the end of August.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-09 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.9   +0.7   +15.7    723.4   -7.6  -172.4    604.2   +3.2   -53.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   527.0  -15.8  -189.5    102.7   +2.6  -152.3    476.3   -7.9   -31.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   403.3  +26.4  -108.4      6.8   +2.1    +6.8    235.5  -32.6  -346.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   612.3   -9.4   -83.1    273.5  +20.9  -154.3    210.0   -4.4  -185.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     7.2   -1.8    +2.2     16.4   +0.4   +16.4    158.8  -42.1   +24.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8657.4  -23.2 -1432.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3810.1  +89.0   -13.2    407.3  -12.2  -248.9    434.0   +1.8   -22.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   266.7  -19.5  -186.4     49.6   +2.3   -81.6    246.6   -1.0    -7.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   233.0  +11.3   -39.8      1.8   +0.5    +1.8    100.5  -13.8  -188.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   398.8   -9.5  -105.5    164.3  +33.8  -140.8    117.2   -3.1  -156.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.6   -0.3    +0.4      3.8   +0.2    +3.8     90.8  -12.3   +29.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   -0.1    +2.2   6237.5  +79.4 -1182.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #302 on: July 11, 2017, 06:43:36 PM »
Smallish extent drop and an area increase again.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-10 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4454.6   -1.3   +15.6    720.7   -2.6  -171.5    579.7  -24.5   -71.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   510.2  -16.9  -192.9     92.6  -10.1  -154.4    462.7  -13.6   -37.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   394.6   -8.7  -106.5     11.4   +4.7   +11.4    227.0   -8.5  -330.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   643.0  +30.7   -47.9    263.5  -10.1  -161.4    213.8   +3.7  -178.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.8   -2.4    +0.2     10.4   -6.0   +10.4    156.2   -2.7   +23.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8591.9  -65.6 -1411.0

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3907.1  +97.0  +102.0    412.6   +5.4  -233.4    394.3  -39.8   -51.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   254.7  -11.9  -187.1     47.1   -2.4   -77.9    231.2  -15.4   -17.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   215.3  -17.8   -48.5      2.9   +1.1    +2.9     97.8   -2.7  -175.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   426.2  +27.4   -76.4    165.1   +0.8  -136.3    116.8   -0.4  -150.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   -0.5    -0.1      2.4   -1.4    +2.4     86.2   -4.6   +25.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   -0.1    +2.0   6276.7  +39.2 -1046.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #303 on: July 11, 2017, 06:49:27 PM »
The CAA suddenly filled up with blue pixels.

jplotinus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #304 on: July 11, 2017, 08:02:00 PM »
ESS near Wrangle and Pevek has not changed much in either extent or area from July 1 to 11, though warm(ish) temps >10°C are forecast all this week at Pevek.

Csnavywx

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #305 on: July 11, 2017, 09:48:56 PM »
Should start crashing tomorrow or the 12th. Heavy Laptev loss was the first signal.

Tigertown

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #306 on: July 12, 2017, 12:25:06 AM »
ESS near Wrangle and Pevek has not changed much in either extent or area from July 1 to 11, though warm(ish) temps >10°C are forecast all this week at Pevek.

 Recommend checking today's Homebrew thread. The data there paints a different picture for the 10th than the NSIDC does.
Area drop exceeds that of extent, much of it in the Chukchi/ESS regions.

Update 20170710.

Extent: -88.6
Area: -146.8


http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg120316.html#msg120316
 
« Last Edit: July 12, 2017, 12:41:38 AM by Tigertown »

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #307 on: July 12, 2017, 02:29:55 PM »
Yes, like the "homebrew" AMSR2  data, NSIDC shows a lot of extent and/or area losses all along the Eurasian coastal regions, especially Laptev.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-11 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4449.4   -5.2   +10.6    699.9  -20.8  -188.5    508.9  -70.8  -137.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   472.6  -37.6  -222.9     89.4   -3.2  -149.7    461.1   -1.6   -27.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   381.0  -13.6  -105.4      8.3   -3.1    +8.3    223.9   -3.1  -309.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   638.6   -4.4   -51.9    264.7   +1.3  -155.9    210.0   -3.7  -174.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.8   +0.0    +0.0     18.7   +8.8   +18.7    120.0  -36.2   -11.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8434.4 -156.9 -1483.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3928.0  +20.9  +141.4    407.2   -5.4  -229.5    336.9  -57.4  -101.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   219.9  -34.9  -211.1     44.3   -2.9   -73.9    226.2   -5.0   -16.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   214.6   -0.7   -36.0      2.0   -0.9    +2.0     96.6   -1.2  -159.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   440.9  +14.7   -59.2    175.6  +10.5  -120.3    121.6   +4.8  -137.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.1   -0.1    -0.1      6.0   +3.7    +6.0     73.8  -12.2   +14.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   +0.0    +2.0   6223.0  -53.6  -994.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #308 on: July 13, 2017, 05:48:56 PM »
Remarkable regional century for the ESS.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-12 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4443.5   -5.9    +5.5    582.3 -117.6  -301.9    524.2  +15.2  -118.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   469.5   -3.1  -213.5     94.6   +5.2  -140.3    442.5  -18.6   -36.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   387.5   +6.5   -85.9      9.4   +1.0    +9.4    206.3  -17.6  -301.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   630.9   -7.7   -56.9    271.1   +6.3  -148.2    193.1  -17.0  -187.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.8   -3.0    -3.2     14.2   -4.5   +14.2    148.2  +27.3   +15.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8273.7 -160.7 -1562.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3918.9   -9.1  +154.9    353.5  -53.7  -280.8    338.4   +1.5   -93.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   224.8   +4.9  -196.5     46.3   +2.0   -67.8    211.0  -15.2   -28.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   211.6   -3.0   -27.8      2.6   +0.5    +2.6     89.8   -6.8  -149.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   441.1   +0.2   -55.2    178.1   +2.5  -112.4    111.3  -10.3  -142.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.3   -0.8    -0.9      3.6   -2.5    +3.6    102.3  +28.1   +41.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.1   +0.1    +2.1   6133.3  -89.6  -992.3


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #309 on: July 13, 2017, 06:13:38 PM »
Wow! Looks like the Laptev is set to join the party.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #310 on: July 14, 2017, 06:06:17 PM »
(near) double centuries for extent and area,  ESS scores a regional century (again). Laptev declines the invitation.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-13 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4443.5   +0.0    +5.6    446.7 -135.5  -431.2    560.4  +36.2   -74.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   451.5  -18.0  -217.2     81.5  -13.0  -146.2    446.6   +4.1   -26.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   358.4  -29.1  -100.9      9.4   -0.0    +9.4    190.8  -15.5  -291.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   629.6   -1.3   -58.5    279.9   +8.8  -135.0    149.5  -43.6  -226.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     9.6   +7.8    +4.9     14.8   +0.6   +14.8    137.9  -10.3    +2.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   8075.2 -198.5 -1669.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3863.3  -55.6  +109.4    281.3  -72.2  -344.9    351.1  +12.8   -71.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   208.7  -16.0  -202.4     47.6   +1.3   -62.3    208.4   -2.6   -25.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   193.2  -18.4   -37.3      2.4   -0.2    +2.4     80.5   -9.3  -142.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   424.4  -16.7   -71.7    177.7   -0.4  -107.5     86.4  -24.8  -160.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.8   +1.5    +0.6      3.9   +0.3    +3.9     84.8  -17.3   +24.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.1    +2.2   5933.1 -200.3 -1108.1


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Csnavywx

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #311 on: July 14, 2017, 06:16:55 PM »
Boom. Subtropical air and ice don't mix.

Edit: It might have overdone the extent drop in the ESS and near Wrangel. There's still some >15% ice there on EOSDIS near Wrangel.

Tigertown

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #312 on: July 14, 2017, 06:31:33 PM »
Boom. Subtropical air and ice don't mix.

Edit: It might have overdone the extent drop in the ESS and near Wrangel. There's still some >15% ice there on EOSDIS near Wrangel.
Yeah, but what time was the last satellite pass. It's pretty warm there now. Maybe going away by the hour at this point.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #313 on: July 14, 2017, 07:01:30 PM »
Basin-only update. The extent decline accelerated and is now back to the lowest position (shared with 2011). Area is not particularly low among recent years.

greatdying2

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #314 on: July 14, 2017, 08:03:11 PM »
Wow  :-\

There goes the Chukchi too.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #315 on: July 14, 2017, 09:06:19 PM »
Laptev declines the invitation.


 ;)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #316 on: July 14, 2017, 09:23:04 PM »
Wow, indeed.
Chukchi and ESS both lost roughly a quarter of the remaining ice (extent) in one 'day'.  You cannot keep that sort of rate (km2/day) up for too long. :o
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

greatdying2

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #317 on: July 14, 2017, 09:58:08 PM »
Wow, indeed.
Chukchi and ESS both lost roughly a quarter of the remaining ice (extent) in one 'day'.  You cannot keep that sort of rate (km2/day) up for too long. :o
I guess the CAB will also have to start dropping (plummeting??) soon...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #318 on: July 14, 2017, 10:35:11 PM »
Wow, indeed.
Chukchi and ESS both lost roughly a quarter of the remaining ice (extent) in one 'day'.  You cannot keep that sort of rate (km2/day) up for too long. :o

They border the CAB. The melt may continue at this rate past the arbitrary boundaries that we have imposed.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #319 on: July 15, 2017, 03:42:03 PM »
Big drops in extent and area again. The drops in Kara are biggest where the ice caught  by Novaya Zemlya is disappearing. ESS rebounded somewhat, not unexpected after two consecutive days with a century.


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-14 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4439.6   -3.9    +2.3    478.6  +31.9  -396.2    559.7   -0.6   -69.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   385.5  -66.0  -265.9     87.2   +5.6  -135.3    440.8   -5.9   -24.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   341.9  -16.6  -106.6      3.1   -6.3    +3.1    197.7   +6.9  -266.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   597.2  -32.4   -87.3    243.9  -36.0  -165.6    129.7  -19.7  -242.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     8.4   -1.2    +3.3     14.3   -0.5   +14.3    171.0  +32.6   +40.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7930.4 -144.8 -1733.8

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3841.1  -22.2   +88.9    282.0   +0.8  -336.9    345.2   -6.0   -67.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   184.0  -24.8  -219.0     34.8  -12.7   -71.0    197.1  -11.3   -31.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   175.6  -17.6   -45.4      0.9   -1.5    +0.9     82.9   +2.3  -130.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   402.8  -21.6   -89.5    150.3  -27.5  -129.5     70.7  -15.7  -170.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.6   -0.2    +0.3      3.5   -0.4    +3.5     90.6   +5.7   +32.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.3   +0.1    +2.3   5774.8 -158.3 -1194.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #320 on: July 16, 2017, 06:54:39 PM »
Very mixed picture. Large extent drops in Kara but rebounds in ESS and Chukchi. While UH AMSR2 "saw" concentration drops on the pacific side, the NSIDC ice concentration is declining on the Atlantic half of the ice pack.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-15 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4440.9   +1.3    +3.9    524.9  +46.3  -347.7    552.6   -7.2   -69.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   302.6  -82.9  -326.5     83.4   -3.8  -127.5    399.8  -41.0   -53.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   340.0   -1.8   -94.8      7.3   +4.2    +7.3    182.4  -15.3  -255.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   580.7  -16.5  -100.1    263.5  +19.7  -143.0    152.6  +22.8  -213.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     8.4   +0.0    +3.5     15.3   +1.1   +15.3    156.0  -15.0   +24.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7857.4  -73.0 -1698.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3760.0  -81.1    +9.7    296.3  +14.3  -310.6    320.6  -24.5   -86.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   148.1  -35.9  -244.2     32.5   -2.3   -66.5    172.3  -24.8   -50.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   177.6   +2.0   -33.9      1.7   +0.8    +1.7     76.2   -6.7  -125.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   392.8  -10.0   -94.0    153.3   +3.0  -120.7     75.2   +4.5  -159.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.4   -0.1    +0.2      3.4   -0.1    +3.4     90.4   -0.1   +32.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   -0.1    +2.2   5613.6 -161.1 -1275.5


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Steven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #321 on: July 16, 2017, 07:16:58 PM »
Sea ice area anomaly is currently  -1.28 million km2, which is 5th lowest for the date.  Average sea ice area during the first half of July 2017 was 6th lowest.  In the graph below I used data from Wipneus' site, which he calculates from NSIDC gridded sea ice concentration data.



jdallen

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #322 on: July 16, 2017, 07:22:04 PM »
Very mixed picture. Large extent drops in Kara but rebounds in ESS and Chukchi. While UH AMSR2 "saw" concentration drops on the pacific side, the NSIDC ice concentration is declining on the Atlantic half of the ice pack.
Looks to me to me like lots of late FYI melting out within the pack proper, leaving behind the relict early FYI and sad bits of MYI behind.  Considering the condition of the ice I've been following in those areas, this comes as no surprise to me at all.
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epiphyte

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #323 on: July 17, 2017, 08:15:01 AM »

rebounds in ESS and Chukchi.


Yes - but that just seems to be the wrong word, somehow. It implies a strengthening or improvement in the state of the ice. Considering the direction it's headed and what's going to happen to it when it gets there, perhaps "diffusion" would be a better term?

oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #324 on: July 17, 2017, 08:31:44 AM »

rebounds in ESS and Chukchi.


Yes - but that just seems to be the wrong word, somehow. It implies a strengthening or improvement in the state of the ice. Considering the direction it's headed and what's going to happen to it when it gets there, perhaps "diffusion" would be a better term?
A common behavior of extent (also area), especially in NSIDC, ice winking in and out of existence when it is marginal or covered with water (ponds, rain, storms). This only "matters" around the minimum.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #325 on: July 17, 2017, 09:01:12 AM »

rebounds in ESS and Chukchi.


Yes - but that just seems to be the wrong word, somehow. It implies a strengthening or improvement in the state of the ice. Considering the direction it's headed and what's going to happen to it when it gets there, perhaps "diffusion" would be a better term?

My intended meaning was that extent rebounds, more specifically the extent as measured.

Like all measurements, those of extent and area do not perfectly match what we like them to be and must be interpreted. I think the chance that ice rebounded somehow is zero.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #326 on: July 17, 2017, 04:14:45 PM »
Moderate extent drop and almost no net change in area.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-16 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4438.9   -2.0    +2.8    514.2  -10.7  -347.5    550.9   -1.7   -65.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   289.9  -12.7  -330.1     73.5   -9.9  -129.3    374.9  -24.9   -70.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   332.6   -7.4   -90.0      5.2   -2.1    +5.2    177.3   -5.1  -237.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   593.4  +12.7   -87.7    272.4   +8.8  -131.2    148.7   -3.9  -210.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.8   -3.6    -0.3     14.2   -1.1   +14.2    191.1  +35.1   +63.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7793.8  -63.6 -1674.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3763.3   +3.3   +10.0    299.7   +3.4  -290.1    304.2  -16.4   -95.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   137.7  -10.4  -249.1     34.5   +2.0   -59.7    162.9   -9.4   -54.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   177.6   +0.0   -23.2      1.1   -0.5    +1.1     74.5   -1.7  -113.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   401.0   +8.2   -82.3    169.0  +15.7   -98.9     77.4   +2.2  -149.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   -0.3    -0.1      3.0   -0.4    +3.0     99.5   +9.2   +41.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.0    +2.2   5609.4   -4.2 -1200.2


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #327 on: July 18, 2017, 07:21:01 PM »
Small extent drop, and an uptick in area. The extent is affected by a particular large increase over Hudson, not likely to be real.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-17 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4435.0   -3.9    +0.1    515.8   +1.6  -342.1    539.2  -11.7   -69.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   243.2  -46.7  -371.3     69.0   -4.5  -126.2    361.0  -13.8   -75.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   328.3   -4.3   -81.9      7.8   +2.6    +7.8    221.9  +44.7  -172.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   617.9  +24.5   -60.8    262.9   -9.5  -137.0    127.0  -21.7  -227.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    13.2   +8.4    +8.6     20.2   +6.0   +20.2    190.5   -0.7   +64.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7765.3  -28.5 -1624.9

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3790.8  +27.5   +47.7    287.4  -12.3  -291.4    302.1   -2.1   -88.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   119.7  -18.0  -259.7     26.9   -7.6   -62.7    156.2   -6.7   -57.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   180.8   +3.2   -11.7      1.5   +0.4    +1.5     94.0  +19.5   -82.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   418.0  +17.0   -54.9    169.0   +0.0   -91.3     66.9  -10.5  -152.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.8   +1.6    +1.6      4.7   +1.6    +4.7     96.8   -2.7   +40.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   -0.0    +2.2   5623.1  +13.7 -1094.6


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #328 on: July 19, 2017, 07:09:14 PM »
Back in the fat centuries. The remaining ice in the Baffin region is taking a hit. CAB lost 60k in area.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-18 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4430.4   -4.6    -2.5    512.5   -3.3  -335.7    534.0   -5.1   -63.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   243.6   +0.5  -356.5     52.0  -17.0  -137.1    360.1   -0.9   -71.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   308.0  -20.3   -89.4      8.8   +1.1    +8.8    170.3  -51.6  -202.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   614.6   -3.3   -59.9    248.2  -14.6  -147.9    117.4   -9.6  -232.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    17.9   +4.7   +12.5     19.1   -1.2   +19.1    166.5  -24.0   +41.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7640.0 -125.3 -1655.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3732.3  -58.5    +5.9    266.9  -20.5  -299.0    296.2   -6.0   -89.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   114.2   -5.5  -255.7     20.6   -6.3   -65.4    152.9   -3.3   -55.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   153.9  -26.9   -29.3      2.1   +0.5    +2.1     63.8  -30.2  -101.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   409.6   -8.5   -51.9    163.2   -5.8   -93.6     53.5  -13.5  -158.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.9   +1.1    +2.5      5.4   +0.7    +5.4     89.9   -6.9   +33.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.0    +2.2   5440.7 -182.4 -1182.3


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #329 on: July 19, 2017, 07:13:55 PM »

And the mystery ice in the Hudson winked back out of existence. +44, -44 over two days.

greatdying2

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #330 on: July 19, 2017, 07:44:33 PM »
I thought the +25 in the CAA yesterday might be noise too, but perhaps it is dispersion.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #331 on: July 20, 2017, 06:22:56 PM »
A regional area century loss for the CAB today. Also notice the Greenland Sea extent. GS can be noisy, but UH AMSR2 sees the same drop there.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-19 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4425.8   -4.6    -7.0    499.8  -12.7  -341.2    511.8  -22.3   -77.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   234.1   -9.6  -350.9     52.7   +0.6  -129.5    306.3  -53.8  -117.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   335.8  +27.8   -47.4      6.2   -2.6    +6.2    165.0   -5.4  -189.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   600.8  -13.8   -71.3    231.7  -16.5  -160.7    120.1   +2.6  -223.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.6  -14.3    -1.9     21.9   +2.8   +21.9    168.1   +1.6   +39.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7518.4 -121.6 -1686.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3621.7 -110.6   -99.6    252.5  -14.4  -300.8    282.8  -13.4   -92.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   108.7   -5.6  -249.5     19.7   -0.9   -61.6    143.3   -9.6   -61.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   148.5   -5.4   -26.3      1.7   -0.4    +1.7     61.8   -2.0   -95.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   406.4   -3.2   -52.2    155.4   -7.7   -94.8     48.4   -5.1  -158.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.0   -2.9    -0.4      6.1   +0.6    +6.1     87.8   -2.0   +30.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.3   +0.1    +2.3   5260.2 -180.5 -1283.0


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Hyperion

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #332 on: July 20, 2017, 08:29:15 PM »
Wow. Largely compacting wind conditions and solid cloud cover, yet big purple blotches showing dropping concentration all through the heart of the pack. And 360 area and 240 extent in 48 hours.
So much for clouds preserving the Ice. If all those Typhoons in the Pacific start lobbing themselves into the fray it might get very messy indeed.
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Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #333 on: July 21, 2017, 07:27:13 PM »
Most of the drop in Kara, followed by Kara CAA and the Greenland Sea. The drop in the CAA is of course not to be taken too seriously.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-20 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4412.7  -13.1   -19.0    488.3  -11.5  -347.3    515.4   +3.6   -66.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   170.3  -63.7  -403.3     62.9  +10.2  -112.3    278.1  -28.3  -139.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   325.2  -10.5   -42.2      8.3   +2.1    +8.3    176.4  +11.4  -159.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   563.0  -37.8  -104.4    238.8   +7.0  -150.6    127.7   +7.6  -209.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     5.4   +1.9    -0.1     19.3   -2.0   +19.3    167.0   -1.2   +38.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7394.8 -123.1 -1724.4

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3550.1  -71.6  -165.4    243.7   -8.8  -301.2    277.5   -5.3   -90.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    86.2  -22.5  -264.9     19.1   -0.6   -57.7    119.2  -24.1   -82.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   146.2   -2.3   -19.1      2.6   +1.0    +2.6     64.5   +2.7   -83.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   391.6  -14.8   -61.1    148.4   -7.0  -100.6     50.2   +1.8  -152.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.0   +0.0    -0.4      4.3   -1.6    +4.3     94.7   +6.8   +37.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   -0.0    +2.2   5106.9 -153.1 -1369.7


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2017, 06:58:01 PM by Wipneus »

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #334 on: July 22, 2017, 07:07:40 PM »
Big drops, finally Laptev is seriously getting rid of all that ice. Greenland Sea extent continues to go down.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-21 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4419.2   +6.6   -11.1    462.4  -25.9  -364.9    440.2  -75.3  -129.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   144.6  -25.7  -415.9     57.8   -5.1  -110.1    225.0  -53.1  -185.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   314.6  -10.6   -39.7      6.8   -1.6    +6.8    175.2   -1.2  -141.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   577.2  +14.2   -83.6    267.1  +28.4  -120.0    125.1   -2.6  -207.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.2   -1.3    -1.2     20.3   +1.0   +20.3    172.5   +5.5   +43.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7242.6 -152.1 -1780.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3463.6  -86.6  -249.5    233.5  -10.2  -303.0    242.5  -35.1  -114.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    70.4  -15.7  -271.1     16.5   -2.6   -57.4    117.0   -2.2   -80.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   136.1  -10.0   -20.9      1.7   -0.9    +1.7     66.1   +1.6   -72.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   379.0  -12.6   -63.4    153.9   +5.5   -94.6     51.1   +0.9  -147.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.7   -0.3    -0.7      4.4   +0.1    +4.4     93.3   -1.4   +36.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   -0.1    +2.2   4938.7 -168.2 -1466.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #335 on: July 22, 2017, 09:06:28 PM »
Big drops, finally Laptev is seriously getting rid of all that ice. Greenland Sea extent continues to go down.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-21 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4419.2   +6.6   -11.1    462.4  -25.9  -364.9    440.2  -75.3  -129.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   144.6  -25.7  -415.9     57.8   -5.1  -110.1    225.0  -53.1  -185.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   314.6  -10.6   -39.7      6.8   -1.6    +6.8    175.2   -1.2  -141.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   577.2  +14.2   -83.6    267.1  +28.4  -120.0    125.1   -2.6  -207.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     4.2   -1.3    -1.2     20.3   +1.0   +20.3    172.5   +5.5   +43.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7242.6 -152.1 -1780.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3463.6  -86.6  -249.5    233.5  -10.2  -303.0    242.5  -35.1  -114.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    70.4  -15.7  -271.1     16.5   -2.6   -57.4    117.0   -2.2   -80.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   136.1  -10.0   -20.9      1.7   -0.9    +1.7     66.1   +1.6   -72.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   379.0  -12.6   -63.4    153.9   +5.5   -94.6     51.1   +0.9  -147.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.7   -0.3    -0.7      4.4   +0.1    +4.4     93.3   -1.4   +36.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   -0.1    +2.2   4938.7 -168.2 -1466.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.
:o

If this keeps up we could be at 4M KM2 area by 8/1!

I think it must be emphasized that despite the benign "conditions" in the Arctic, melt has kept up or surpassed all yrs on record.

The question that must then be asked, is why? If we have been having extraordinary extent/area losses, then what explains that? It is the horrible volume #s, which are artificially bumped by the "false" +++ anomalies along the Atlantic edge (PIOMAS).

I don't think many have truly grasped what happened between this past winter and this year; the Arctic went from an environment that produced swirly cones of thick, layered multi-yr ice, to a place where ice that survived the previous season barely made it into the next one, while 1-1.5M of bad-quality ice formed alongside it, some of it not even making it through the winter.

Most of the ice over the Arctic Ocean is legitimately the equivalent of what has already melted out over Hudson Bay, which means the losses are going to continue in full form for at least the next month. That will translate into a wide gap with 2012 by 8/1, and a yawning one by 8/15 (IMO).

While 2012 had the GAC, 2017 has a thin sheet of ice that can't even endure colder than normal weather without losing 170K area per day. LOL!

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #336 on: July 22, 2017, 10:25:20 PM »
it's probably obvious that i fully concur since i'm blowing this horn since march but then i suggest to be careful to compare hudson with the places (ice) where there is still some ice left by now. reason is obvious as well, hudson is a lot more south and surrounded by land where temps have seen above 20C back in spring the first time, jointly with at times heavy winds coming in over the same land all around it. those conditions will never be happening in the high arctic for many decades to come if ever. the sun up there is waning already, hence water and airflow together with wave action will have to do the job for the rest of the melting season.

you certainly remember that we were in agreement at earlier times and my reply as well was about considering very carefully about extreme terms as well as about comparing apples with pears. the reason should be clear, whoever does not want to see the facts or doesn't like our "noses" and at the same time is looking for arguments  agains, will use those "quick shot" arguments to deny the entire post and get personal (ridicule)  of course only to later join the party once the processes become visible to the naked eye of the last Mohican LOL

BTW now the two of us used LOLs let's see who will complain this time hehe...

enjoy a pleasant weekend
« Last Edit: July 22, 2017, 10:42:09 PM by magnamentis »
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #337 on: July 22, 2017, 11:22:21 PM »
I don't think many have truly grasped what happened between this past winter and this year; the Arctic went from an environment that produced swirly cones of thick, layered multi-yr ice, to a place where ice that survived the previous season barely made it into the next one, while 1-1.5M of bad-quality ice formed alongside it, some of it not even making it through the winter.

BTW now the two of us used LOLs let's see who will complain this time hehe...

I will complain this time.

You don't think many people grasp what? Seriously? No one but you has noticed that the Arctic just had a second record warm winter in a row, and volume was lowest on record by far according to PIOMAS?

What do you think people have been discussing here since 2013, and before that on the ASIB since 2010, and before that, elsewhere on the Internet (RealClimate, Hot Topic, Rabett Run, etc, etc) since 2007? Do you really think this is some conservative congregation of lukewarmers whose only interest is to stress that all is just dandy, and just a select/chosen few really grasp what's going on? Even though we're all looking at the same data?

There is a difference between 'grasping' something and going out on a limb without any direct evidence or facts. Yes, records are going to be broken again at some point, and yes, the Arctic will go ice-free at some point. Maybe soon, maybe later. Practically everyone in this community agrees with that. Don't act as if only a few are seeing something.

This next paragraph is more directed towards magnamentis, as his nudge-nudge reply to bbr2314's comment is what really got my hackles up, and not for the first time:

To go out and state that only you see things that almost no one else sees, when it is actually just speculation, is not only insulting to other members or simply a strawman, but also a delusion of grandeur. It's alarmism for the sake of feeding the ego, and in essence not that much different from denier mentality. The arrogant tone is highly polarizing, as I've told you before. This 'whose dick is biggest'-atmosphere and 'told you so'-anticipation is taking all the fun out of witnessing and discovering something together.

Cut. It. Out.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #338 on: July 23, 2017, 12:36:30 AM »
@neven

"not many" does not mean the same than "only"

even though i did not go that far the entire story is not about who is grasping what but about the various reactions of people who as well only go out to a limb without evidence but are repeatedly proven wrong while some of those who are ridiculed have often if not mostly been spot on.

i won't go so far to collect all the post but it's there, in writing and yes there are people who have an eye for the bigger picture and nothing is wrong with it.

further i'm a bit surprised because whenever i'm reading through your posts there is close to 100% the same or a very similar point of view shining through.

this is by no means about content, it's something else and we both know it and this is MY field of work if we wanna talk about expertise. unfortunately this is not the place where we can provide
more information about who is who, hence what remains is to further enjoy the many useful and
great contributions here and accept the fact that "es menschelt" wie überall.

at the end one can easily see this things different and it's your place, hence your opinion counts.
but one thing is totally clear and not disputable, to mock someone because he uses LOL or
emphasizes a compliment by the use of several nice words instead of one is clearly
OT, unnecessary and clearly based on aversion which from the text one can see is
based on an inferiority complex and i dont' mean you, hope that's clear.

i wish you and you folks a nice weekend too

over and out ;)
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #339 on: July 23, 2017, 01:00:29 AM »
This 'whose dick is biggest'-atmosphere and 'told you so'-anticipation is taking all the fun out of witnessing and discovering something together.

Cut. It. Out.

Hear, hear.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #340 on: July 23, 2017, 02:22:57 AM »
hear, hear 2 .. of more concern however is that the area anomaly has increased some 475 000 sqkm in the last 9 days ... b.c.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #341 on: July 23, 2017, 03:49:02 AM »

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-21 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin   
  4419.2   +6.6   -11.1
Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin   
  3463.6  -86.6  -249.5


The extent value given here closely  matches the extent data in your regional extent graph.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png
However the area is about 15% lower than in your area graph.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png

I realise the measurements come from different sources but can you provide a quick explanation of why the figures are so different? TA


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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #342 on: July 23, 2017, 06:05:56 AM »
FWIW, my opinion is that we should cut Magnamentis some slack. He has posted some 600 plus times over the course of the last twelve months and rarely have I seen him post anything objectionable.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #343 on: July 23, 2017, 06:36:50 AM »
Every day I try to focus and read this thread , but lately keep having a loss of concentration. ???

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #344 on: July 23, 2017, 07:04:10 AM »
Why is everyone getting so upset? It's important that all sides are heard.

And I'm not at all convinced that anyone has more evidence on their side -- it comes down to interpretation. I do agree that we should try to keep a spirit of camaraderie, but it's hardly consistent to accuse someone of ruining this right after you yourself put them down.

I think it takes guts to go out on a limb and make non-conservative projections.

Let's all respect one another.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #345 on: July 23, 2017, 09:29:24 AM »

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-21 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin   
  4419.2   +6.6   -11.1
Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin   
  3463.6  -86.6  -249.5


The extent value given here closely  matches the extent data in your regional extent graph.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png
However the area is about 15% lower than in your area graph.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png

I realise the measurements come from different sources but can you provide a quick explanation of why the figures are so different? TA

Let me try, I will have to be brief.

The Uni Hamburg data is based on a algorithm (specific calculation) called ASI (stands for ASI Sea Ice). Measurements are from the AMSR2 satellite instrument provided by Jaxa.

The NSIDC data is based on a different algorithm called Nasa Team and uses measurements from instruments SMMR, SSM/I and SSMS on several US satellites.

For completeness the Jaxa/ADS data use another algorithm (Bootstrap) and measurements are from the AMSR2 instrument.

There are more algorithms, each with its specific advantages and disadvantages. The ASI algorithm has the highest resolution, the NSIDC has the longest timespan (end 1978-present) and Jaxa/ADS may be the most accurate available.

Now the NSIDC algorithm is known to underestimate sea ice concentration, especially during the melting season. This explains your observation as concentration directly influences area . Extent is less affected because extent includes all grid cells with >15% concentration fully (100%), only for marginal ice it will make a difference.

There is a nice set of comparative sea ice concentration pages from UCAR/NCAR:

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/variables/cryosphere/sea-ice-concentration

 

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #346 on: July 23, 2017, 10:06:28 AM »
Why is everyone getting so upset? It's important that all sides are heard.

And I'm not at all convinced that anyone has more evidence on their side -- it comes down to interpretation. I do agree that we should try to keep a spirit of camaraderie, but it's hardly consistent to accuse someone of ruining this right after you yourself put them down.

I think it takes guts to go out on a limb and make non-conservative projections.

Let's all respect one another.

I don't have a problem with people going out on a limb, per se. If they do it using data that is highly unreliable, I will say so. What I do have a problem with, is this atmosphere that is being created that some who are going out on a limb are being ridiculed and oppressed, but then, of course, they turn out to be right, and everyone glosses over it and acts as if they agreed all along. That is what magnamentis is doing every now and again, and it gets my hackles up.

He does it again in his reaction to my comment:

even though i did not go that far the entire story is not about who is grasping what but about the various reactions of people who as well only go out to a limb without evidence but are repeatedly proven wrong while some of those who are ridiculed have often if not mostly been spot on.

i won't go so far to collect all the post but it's there, in writing and yes there are people who have an eye for the bigger picture and nothing is wrong with it.

This is both vague and generalizing. Who is being ridiculed, but has often if not mostly been spot on? What purpose does it serve to even talk like this? Who is implying there is anything wrong with 'people who have an eye for the bigger picture'?

It's almost impossible to be spot on all the time when forecasting a melting season. Every year since 2012 we have people going out on a limb, saying the ice never looked worse (without comparing to previous years) and this will be the year, every year the poll results are way below the final number, but so far, no year has even come close to beating 2012, quite simply because weather conditions prevented it.

One year someone going out on a limb, will be right, but I think the data will point to it as well, and so many will be going out on that limb. It's the number one thing everyone here is on the look-out for! But the important thing will be that Arctic sea ice records are being broken again, not who said it first (and was then mocked, blah blah blah).

Or take this:

but one thing is totally clear and not disputable, to mock someone because he uses LOL or emphasizes a compliment by the use of several nice words instead of one is clearly
OT, unnecessary and clearly based on aversion which from the text one can see is
based on an inferiority complex and i dont' mean you, hope that's clear.

Who is mocked because he uses LOL? By whom, by the whole Forum community? And even if he is, so what? Is it relevant to what we're doing here as a collective?

This vague generalizing, about one group of clairvoyants being ridiculed by the masses, is polarizing poison for a forum. It creates an atmosphere of 'told you so' and forces people to get entrenched in opinions. So, going out on a limb is fine, but there's no need for the arrogant, pre-triumphant tone and the persecution Galileo-complex. This isn't WUWT, or some forum full of sceptics.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #347 on: July 23, 2017, 01:28:18 PM »
This is my 7th year of ice watching, and one thing I've learned is that whenever I've thought that I knew what the Arctic was up to, it did something else.
It's been a wonderful lesson in humility.
Terry

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #348 on: July 23, 2017, 01:49:37 PM »
Upticks both in extent and area. In those regions where ice dropped in the last few days, the extent "recovers": Greenland Sea, Kara and Laptev. The area increase in those regions is much smaller, so the 15% cutoff may play a role here.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-07-22 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4417.3   -2.0   -10.4    449.6  -12.8  -368.5    467.1  +26.9   -94.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   208.4  +63.8  -340.7     54.6   -3.2  -108.5    264.7  +39.7  -141.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   298.4  -16.2   -40.9      6.7   -0.0    +6.7    146.0  -29.3  -153.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   554.8  -22.3  -105.6    265.3   -1.8  -122.2    122.6   -2.5  -203.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    10.8   +6.6    +5.5     20.3   -0.0   +20.3    121.7  -51.3    -8.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.9   +0.0    +2.9   7289.5  +46.8 -1654.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3534.7  +71.1  -168.3    217.2  -16.4  -310.0    246.4   +4.0  -102.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    89.7  +19.3  -242.0     17.4   +0.9   -52.6    115.0   -2.0   -79.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   127.5   -8.6   -20.5      1.4   -0.3    +1.4     56.7   -9.4   -73.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   358.8  -20.2   -80.0    156.2   +2.3   -93.3     45.6   -5.5  -147.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.2   +1.5    +0.8      4.6   +0.2    +4.6     74.5  -18.8   +17.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.2   +0.0    +2.2   4975.6  +36.9 -1360.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #349 on: July 23, 2017, 01:54:34 PM »
This is my 7th year of ice watching, and one thing I've learned is that whenever I've thought that I knew what the Arctic was up to, it did something else.
It's been a wonderful lesson in humility.

11th year here. And I completely agree: the more I watch, the less I know. ;-) The long-term is linear, negative, and to some extent predictable. But the short-term is a roulette table. And smart people don't bounce around the casino thumping their chest when a spin goes their way, for they know the next one--or 10, or 20--may not.