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Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #450 on: September 07, 2017, 07:27:03 PM »
Extent is back on the path to setting a lower minimum, still the 8th lowest 55k above nr. 7 2010.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-06 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3823.7  -34.5  -439.6    108.3   -5.1  -330.8    103.0   +0.7  -151.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    64.3   -4.5  -154.0      1.3   -4.5   -41.2     67.1  -12.4  -157.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    43.2   +0.7   -12.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     11.5   -6.6   -20.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   359.4   -6.5   -35.7     59.1   -5.7  -205.9      1.2   -0.0  -135.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.6    -2.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    218.2   -1.9   +86.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     1.0   -0.5    +1.0   4643.1  -79.6 -1686.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2721.3  -14.5  -728.0     38.9   -2.6  -239.1     63.8   -1.2   -89.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    30.6   -2.8   -93.6      0.6   -1.0   -17.1     30.9   -8.9   -76.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    24.2   +2.0    -2.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      4.8   -1.0    -6.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   211.5   +3.3   -23.9     16.9   -2.3  -139.4      0.6   +0.0   -73.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.1    -0.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    102.6   -2.8   +45.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.3   -0.1    +0.3   3144.4  -29.3 -1489.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #451 on: September 08, 2017, 07:08:39 PM »
Extent changed little. Area drops a little, still +129k above the 1st of September 2017 minimum.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-07 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3818.4   -5.3  -439.3    103.8   -4.5  -333.4    108.3   +5.2  -146.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    64.3   -0.0  -152.5      0.7   -0.6   -40.8     60.5   -6.6  -161.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    44.0   +0.8   -14.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     13.2   +1.7   -20.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   352.7   -6.7   -44.9     66.7   +7.6  -194.9      0.6   -0.6  -134.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.6   +0.6    -1.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    221.2   +3.0   +88.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     1.0   +0.0    +1.0   4634.6   -8.4 -1683.6

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2688.5  -32.8  -763.2     37.6   -1.3  -240.7     66.7   +2.8   -86.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    31.2   +0.6   -91.9      0.2   -0.4   -17.1     31.4   +0.5   -75.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    27.2   +3.0    -0.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.6   +0.9    -5.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   211.0   -0.4   -25.3     19.8   +2.9  -135.6      0.5   -0.1   -72.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.1   +0.1    -0.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    108.1   +5.5   +50.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.2   -0.1    +0.2   3120.1  -24.3 -1515.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #452 on: September 08, 2017, 07:16:10 PM »
Updating the NSIDC Basin-only graphs.

Rob Dekker

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #453 on: September 09, 2017, 09:04:30 AM »
Thanks Wipneus !
It looks to me that the "area" minimum was reached September 1....

Sterks

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #454 on: September 09, 2017, 11:52:58 AM »
And minimum extent any day now. The forecast turns really cold for the Central Arctic and the Pacific side.

2phil4u

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #455 on: September 09, 2017, 02:26:19 PM »
the ice looks good placed and it is compact, so i also cant  see any reason for more then 200k less extent this year then today.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #456 on: September 09, 2017, 06:55:18 PM »
Today's increase in extent is nearly all caused by suspicious increases in the CAA. In the Basin the slow decline continues, while area even drops with more enthusiasm.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-08 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3802.6  -15.8  -452.0     98.6   -5.2  -336.5    122.0  +13.7  -133.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    66.9   +2.6  -148.7      1.3   +0.7   -39.4     66.9   +6.4  -159.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    50.0   +6.0    -7.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     19.3   +6.1   -12.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   412.3  +59.6   +15.4     53.4  -13.3  -207.5      0.6   +0.0  -133.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +0.6    -1.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    233.1  +12.0   +99.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     1.5   +0.5    +1.5   4696.7  +62.0 -1615.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2636.3  -52.2  -821.5     35.4   -2.2  -244.8     72.9   +6.3   -80.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    31.4   +0.1   -91.2      0.4   +0.2   -16.6     32.6   +1.2   -76.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    28.2   +1.0    +0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.3   +0.6    -4.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   237.2  +26.2    +1.4     15.0   -4.8  -140.5      0.4   -0.0   -72.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.2   +0.1    -0.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    106.8   -1.1   +49.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.3   +0.1    +0.3   3096.7  -23.4 -1546.7

Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #457 on: September 10, 2017, 07:05:50 PM »
Yesterday's fake ice in the CAA disappeared again, resulting in a net extent loss. Within the Basin, the extent actually increased. Area keeps falling and a new minimum seems to be possible again, today is only 32k above the value on 1 September.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-09 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3815.5  +12.9  -436.9     90.9   -7.7  -345.0    126.5   +4.6  -131.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    65.7   -1.2  -152.5      1.9   +0.6   -38.3     63.1   -3.8  -164.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    67.1  +17.1   +11.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     21.4   +2.2   -10.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   331.8  -80.5   -66.4     51.5   -1.9  -205.2      0.6   +0.0  -133.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.8   +0.6    -0.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    244.4  +11.3  +104.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     3.5   +2.0    +3.5   4641.4  -55.2 -1669.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2582.9  -53.4  -879.3     30.5   -4.9  -251.3     77.6   +4.7   -77.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    30.6   -0.8   -93.7      0.6   +0.2   -16.4     30.4   -2.2   -80.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    31.2   +3.0    +3.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      7.6   +1.3    -3.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   212.6  -24.6   -22.4     16.4   +1.5  -137.7      0.4   -0.0   -72.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.9   +0.7    +0.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    104.6   -2.0   +44.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.9   +0.6    +0.9   3022.6  -74.1 -1630.1


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #458 on: September 10, 2017, 08:58:25 PM »
(Hi all. Apologies for the break in updates. I'll try to get everything up to date during the week)

Update for the week to August 12th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,687,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,457,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,790,000km2, an increase from -1,679,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +229,000km2, an increase from +7,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -83.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -67.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -104.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -54.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -70.9k/day.



The extent loss so far this August is the 6th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 87.5k/day is required (more than 85.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 6.8k/day (increase of at least 6.1k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 34.8k/day (25.7k/day with single day values).


A-Team

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #459 on: September 10, 2017, 09:41:32 PM »
Looking at our highest resolution sea ice concentration, the 3.125 km resolution UH AMSR2, and simply counting pixels of open water (blue, respectively <20% concentration green) by date, suggests we not yet reached the fall minimum for either of these measures. The graph shows these counts normalized to the lowest count on 14 Aug 17; the raw data is attached as a csv text file. The animation is done to the <20% regions.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2017, 09:59:03 PM by A-Team »

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #460 on: September 11, 2017, 06:29:22 PM »
Area dropped below 1st September value and went below the 2007 minimum. The minimum is now the 4th lowest, another -25k is needed for 3rd place.
Extent still 8th lowest, -38k needed for 7.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-10 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3776.9  -38.6  -472.4     89.6   -1.3  -347.3    130.4   +3.9  -128.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    67.0   +1.3  -147.5      0.7   -1.3   -40.2     59.2   -3.9  -166.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    59.3   -7.8    +2.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     15.6   -5.9   -16.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   373.5  +41.7   -17.5     51.5   -0.0  -200.5      0.6   +0.0  -133.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -1.8    -2.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    213.4  -31.1   +66.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     4.0   +0.5    +4.0   4628.2  -13.2 -1666.8

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2498.0  -84.9  -962.3     29.4   -1.1  -256.1     79.3   +1.7   -78.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    30.5   -0.0   -93.0      0.2   -0.5   -17.0     29.6   -0.8   -83.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    31.3   +0.2    +2.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.0   -1.6    -4.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   219.8   +7.2   -11.9     15.5   -0.9  -135.8      0.4   +0.0   -72.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.9    -0.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    101.7   -2.9   +37.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.9   -0.0    +0.9   2940.9  -81.7 -1712.1


The rankings for area and extent are currently:

NH Extent
1 2012-09-16 3.339905
2 2016-09-07 4.144993
3 2007-09-14 4.146931
4 2011-09-08 4.332572
5 2015-09-08 4.387092
6 2008-09-18 4.548265
7 2010-09-19 4.589683
8 2017-09-10 4.628239

NH Area
1 2012-09-12 2.228429
2 2016-09-06 2.463209
3 2011-09-05 2.916451
4 2017-09-10 2.940931

Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #461 on: September 11, 2017, 07:24:06 PM »
Is anyone doing a track of how the monthly extent builds up this September?

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #462 on: September 12, 2017, 06:45:43 PM »
An uptick in extent caused by some spurious ice emerging in the Hudson, it will be probably go tomorrow. Area still needs a drop of -23k for third lowest minimum.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-11 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3772.8   -4.1  -475.6     90.9   +1.3  -346.9    130.4   -0.0  -128.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    73.3   +6.3  -139.5      0.0   -0.7   -40.7     71.0  +11.8  -154.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    49.8   -9.5    -8.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     54.5  +38.9   +23.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   350.1  -23.3   -45.0     49.6   -1.9  -196.8      0.6   +0.0  -131.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +1.2    -1.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    217.2   +3.8   +75.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   -2.0    +2.0   4646.2  +18.0 -1642.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2492.1   -5.9  -968.6     30.3   +0.9  -258.5     78.6   -0.6   -80.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    33.7   +3.1   -89.5      0.0   -0.2   -17.5     32.7   +3.1   -80.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    28.5   -2.9    -0.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     19.6  +13.6    +9.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   206.9  -13.0   -27.9     15.2   -0.3  -133.0      0.4   -0.0   -72.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.8   +0.8    +0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    102.8   +1.2   +40.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.7   -0.2    +0.7   2939.3   -1.6 -1719.3


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #463 on: September 13, 2017, 07:20:09 PM »
Area went up again but extent dropped another -35k. Extent needs another -22k for 7th lowest minimum (now held by 2010).

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-12 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3742.1  -30.7  -506.0     94.8   +3.8  -343.4    128.5   -1.9  -132.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    66.3   -6.9  -144.5      0.6   +0.6   -40.1     66.3   -4.7  -160.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    50.6   +0.8    -7.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     30.9  -23.6    +2.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   372.1  +21.9   -25.5     52.8   +3.2  -191.4      1.8   +1.2  -130.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.8   +0.6    -0.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    203.9  -13.7   +70.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.5   +0.5    +2.5   4611.1  -35.1 -1677.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2579.3  +87.2  -892.5     30.9   +0.6  -259.2     82.9   +4.2   -78.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    29.5   -4.2   -94.1      0.3   +0.3   -17.3     31.2   -1.5   -84.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    26.7   -1.7    -2.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      8.4  -11.2    -1.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   221.6  +14.8   -15.8     16.6   +1.4  -130.7      0.6   +0.2   -73.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.3   -0.5    -0.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     97.6   -5.3   +40.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     1.0   +0.3    +1.0   3029.3  +89.9 -1648.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #464 on: September 14, 2017, 07:28:35 PM »
Century area increase, extent starts the way up as well.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-13 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3745.3   +3.2  -502.6     96.0   +1.3  -341.8    135.0   +6.5  -127.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    65.1   -1.3  -144.7      0.7   +0.0   -40.2     63.1   -3.2  -169.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    59.2   +8.6    -0.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     17.8  -13.1    -8.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   406.1  +34.0    +7.1     59.2   +6.4  -184.8      0.6   -1.2  -132.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   -0.6    -1.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    158.5  -45.5   +26.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   -0.5    +2.0   4651.2  +40.1 -1643.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2701.8 +122.5  -775.3     31.1   +0.2  -259.8     91.6   +8.7   -70.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    27.5   -2.0   -95.8      0.2   -0.1   -17.3     30.0   -1.2   -88.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    27.9   +1.2    -2.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.8   -2.6    -3.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   236.4  +14.8    -3.6     19.2   +2.6  -128.5      0.4   -0.2   -73.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.2   -0.1    -0.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     82.9  -14.7   +25.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.6   -0.4    +0.6   3172.7 +143.4 -1519.0


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Rob Dekker

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #465 on: September 15, 2017, 08:33:26 AM »
Wipneus, thank you so much for your continuing reporting of the daily NSIDC numbers for area and extent.

Now that it looks like the minimum has been reached, could you once more report the rankings for area and extent ?

Thanks a lot !

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #466 on: September 15, 2017, 06:22:00 PM »
Now that it looks like the minimum has been reached, could you once more report the rankings for area and extent ?

Thanks a lot !

Sure:

NH Extent
1 2012-09-16 3.339905
2 2016-09-07 4.144993
3 2007-09-14 4.146931
4 2011-09-08 4.332572
5 2015-09-08 4.387092
6 2008-09-18 4.548265
7 2010-09-19 4.589683
8 2017-09-12 4.611109
9 2014-09-16 4.988244
10 2013-09-13 5.039617
11 2009-09-12 5.046571
12 2005-09-20 5.314284
13 2002-09-18 5.625038
14 1999-09-12 5.676431
15 2006-09-14 5.746404
16 2004-09-18 5.770495
17 2000-09-11 5.942586
18 2003-09-17 5.969052
19 1990-09-21 6.010841
20 1995-09-04 6.012446
21 1993-09-13 6.161196
22 1991-09-16 6.258512
23 1998-09-17 6.293315
24 1984-09-16 6.396239
25 1985-09-09 6.486437
26 2001-09-19 6.567265
27 1997-09-03 6.601921
28 1989-09-22 6.888294
29 1987-09-02 6.889959
30 1979-09-21 6.895215
31 1981-09-10 6.901518
32 1994-09-05 6.933656
33 1988-09-11 7.048098
34 1986-09-06 7.121551
35 1996-09-10 7.146860
36 1992-09-07 7.158961
37 1982-09-13 7.159853
38 1983-09-08 7.204490
39 1980-09-05 7.533277


NH Area
1 2012-09-12 2.228429
2 2016-09-06 2.463209
3 2011-09-05 2.916451
4 2017-09-11 2.939311
5 2007-09-07 2.954993
6 2010-09-07 3.071674
7 2008-09-08 3.079552
8 2015-09-07 3.139137
9 2009-09-08 3.547109
10 2014-09-09 3.576643
11 2013-09-08 3.607877
12 2006-09-22 4.082958
13 2002-09-05 4.098445
14 2005-09-03 4.134433
15 2003-09-05 4.155104
16 2000-09-03 4.235279
17 1999-09-16 4.318875
18 1998-09-11 4.346996
19 2004-09-07 4.375240
20 1995-09-29 4.410301
21 1991-09-18 4.463582
22 1993-09-06 4.488183
23 2001-09-16 4.592484
24 1990-09-21 4.661325
25 1984-09-13 4.691219
26 1994-09-05 4.854227
27 1989-09-11 4.872464
28 1997-09-17 5.008589
29 1985-09-10 5.043057
30 1981-09-07 5.068809
31 1992-08-31 5.084517
32 1982-09-12 5.112870
33 1988-09-03 5.209891
34 1996-09-08 5.297000
35 1987-09-02 5.339545
36 1983-09-02 5.357635
37 1979-09-19 5.413227
38 1986-09-11 5.495114
39 1980-09-05 5.588796


Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #467 on: September 15, 2017, 06:36:56 PM »
Like other years, I continue the daily reports a bit longer into the refreezing season (September).
Area shows yet another century increase, extent is not in a hurry yet.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-14 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3765.5  +20.2  -483.8     97.3   +1.3  -343.3    140.8   +5.8  -122.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    66.3   +1.3  -145.7      0.7   +0.0   -40.2     68.7   +5.6  -166.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    72.1  +13.0   +12.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     16.2   -1.6    -9.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   367.3  -38.8   -31.9     53.5   -5.7  -190.7      0.6   +0.0  -131.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -1.2    -2.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    142.6  -15.9   +10.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   +0.0    +2.0   4651.1   -0.1 -1653.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2829.7 +127.8  -651.4     31.5   +0.5  -262.9     99.4   +7.9   -63.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    28.0   +0.5   -96.0      0.3   +0.0   -17.2     30.8   +0.8   -91.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    33.5   +5.5    +3.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.4   -0.4    -3.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   225.2  -11.3   -15.7     17.4   -1.8  -130.2      0.4   +0.0   -72.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.2    -0.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     77.8   -5.1   +19.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.5   -0.1    +0.5   3302.0 +129.4 -1401.9


Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #468 on: September 15, 2017, 06:40:15 PM »
Updating the Basin-only NSIDC NT graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #469 on: September 16, 2017, 07:44:06 PM »
NSIDC NT sees the ice edge in the basin advancing.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-15 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3798.3  +32.8  -448.9    101.8   +4.5  -340.5    141.5   +0.7  -122.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    67.6   +1.3  -142.0      0.7   +0.0   -40.9     65.4   -3.3  -170.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    65.9   -6.3    +4.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     10.3   -5.9   -15.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   378.2  +10.9   -19.6     54.7   +1.2  -190.4      0.6   +0.0  -130.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -2.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    154.6   +6.0   +24.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     1.5   -0.5    +1.5   4686.5  +35.4 -1617.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2840.7  +11.0  -653.5     34.1   +2.6  -261.6    103.3   +3.9   -60.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    28.9   +0.9   -94.9      0.2   -0.0   -17.7     29.5   -1.2   -94.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    33.0   -0.4    +1.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      4.0   -1.4    -4.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   209.1  -16.1   -32.8     16.9   -0.6  -131.7      0.4   -0.0   -74.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     84.2   +4.7   +27.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.3   -0.1    +0.3   3300.5   -1.6 -1424.7


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #470 on: September 17, 2017, 09:58:35 AM »
Update for the week to August 19th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,315,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,284,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,779,000km2, a decrease from -1,790,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +278,000km2, an increase from +154,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -53.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -54.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -70.9k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -46.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -62.6k/day.



The extent loss so far this August is the 9th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 107.5k/day is required (more than 125.9k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 20.4k/day (increase of at least 24.6k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 24.1k/day (25.9k/day with single day values).


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #471 on: September 17, 2017, 10:00:34 AM »
Update for the week to August 26th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,020,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,913,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,751,000km2, a decrease from -1,779,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +421,000km2, an increase from +278,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -42.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -46.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -62.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -37.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -46.3k/day.



The extent loss so far this August is the 12th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 198.9k/day is required (more than 295.8k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 107.7k/day (increase of at least 215.2k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires an increase of 1.1k/day (37.5k/day with single day values).


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #472 on: September 17, 2017, 10:03:26 AM »
Update for the week to September 2nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,873,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,791,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,620,000km2, a decrease from -1,751,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +598,000km2, an increase from +421,000km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 5th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -21.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -37.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -46.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -26.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -31.8k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 14th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 28.7k/day is required (more than 34.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 9.8k/day (drop of at least 7.4k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 8.1k/day (11.9k/day with single day values).



The extent loss in August was the 16th largest on record while the average extent was the 4th smallest on record.




BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #473 on: September 17, 2017, 10:05:37 AM »
Update for the week to September 9th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,668,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,641,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,641,000km2, an increase from -1,620,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +616,000km2, an increase from +598,000km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, down from 6th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -29.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -26.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -31.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -4.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -5.0k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 19th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 48.0k/day is required (more than 54.5k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 3.3k/day (drop of at least 2.2k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 20.6k/day (24.2k/day with single day values).


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #474 on: September 17, 2017, 03:08:30 PM »
Update for the week to September 16th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,655,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,677,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,625,000km2, a decrease from -1,641,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +638,000km2, an increase from +616,000km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -1.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -4.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -5.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +17.6k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +16.3k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 18th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 72.9k/day is required (more than 83.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 4.0k/day (drop of at least -6.3k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 31.8k/day (35.3k/day with single day values).


Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #475 on: September 17, 2017, 07:51:15 PM »
Rather small changes, regional and totals.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-16 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3795.5   -2.8  -448.9    103.2   +1.3  -337.0    146.1   +4.6  -118.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    65.7   -1.9  -143.1      2.5   +1.9   -39.0     52.4  -13.0  -185.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    69.5   +3.6    +7.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     12.1   +1.9   -14.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   365.6  -12.6   -34.4     61.1   +6.4  -186.2      0.6   +0.0  -132.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +1.2    -1.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    144.0  -10.5    +7.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   +0.5    +2.0   4677.4   -9.0 -1630.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2848.8   +8.1  -652.8     35.4   +1.2  -260.7    109.0   +5.8   -55.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    28.0   -0.9   -96.2      0.6   +0.3   -17.2     24.3   -5.2  -102.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    35.2   +2.1    +2.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.2   +1.2    -4.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   200.2   -8.9   -44.3     19.2   +2.4  -130.5      0.4   +0.0   -76.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.2   +0.2    -0.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     79.1   -4.8   +20.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.5   +0.2    +0.5   3307.0   +6.5 -1436.5


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #476 on: September 18, 2017, 07:14:21 PM »
Still only small changes.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-17 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3822.0  +15.5  -420.2    109.0   +4.5  -333.1    141.5   -4.6  -127.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    66.9   +1.2  -144.1      2.0   -0.6   -39.8     63.8   +8.0  -178.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    59.5   -9.4    -2.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     16.0   +5.1   -10.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   388.1  +15.3    -7.8     50.3   -7.6  -198.6      0.6   +0.0  -132.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -2.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    171.7  +25.5   +38.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     1.0   -1.5    +1.0   4720.8  +26.0 -1597.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2907.4  +40.0  -593.6     39.8   +4.0  -257.0    105.2   -3.8   -60.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    30.2   +2.2   -94.1      0.5   -0.1   -17.5     30.3   +4.6  -100.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    30.6   -3.5    -2.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.1   +1.6    -3.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   221.7   +9.3   -21.8     14.8   -3.1  -135.9      0.4   -0.0   -78.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     92.8  +13.9   +35.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.3   -0.3    +0.3   3387.2  +50.8 -1364.5


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #477 on: September 19, 2017, 06:34:44 PM »
A (probably exaggerated) extent drop in the CAA causes a slight drop in extent. The real refreeze has yet to start.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-18 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3837.8  +15.8  -404.5    108.4   -0.6  -337.0    143.4   +1.9  -128.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    65.7   -1.2  -143.8      2.6   +0.7   -39.8     65.1   +1.3  -183.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    63.9   +4.4    +1.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     17.4   +1.4    -9.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   349.3  -38.8   -50.9     49.0   -1.3  -201.8      1.8   +1.2  -132.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -2.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    181.2   +7.5   +51.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     3.5   +2.5    +3.5   4707.9  -12.8 -1629.0

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2942.1  +34.7  -566.9     40.5   +0.6  -259.2    102.6   -2.6   -65.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    30.6   +0.4   -94.0      0.5   +0.1   -17.6     27.3   -2.9  -107.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    34.5   +3.9    +0.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.9   +0.9    -2.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   211.0  -10.7   -35.3     13.3   -1.5  -140.9      0.9   +0.4   -78.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     90.9   -2.3   +34.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     1.4   +1.1    +1.4   3411.6  +24.4 -1366.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #478 on: September 20, 2017, 07:01:17 PM »
The CAA rebounds from the decreases the day before. Area  does drop over -40k elsewhere, mostly CAB.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-19 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3837.8   +0.1  -406.8    106.4   -1.9  -340.4    149.9   +6.5  -126.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    70.3   +4.6  -141.8      1.3   -1.3   -43.0     70.4   +5.4  -181.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    65.3   +1.3    -0.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     12.5   -4.9   -17.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   388.2  +38.9   -20.0     46.5   -2.5  -203.4      0.6   -1.2  -134.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +1.2    -1.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    156.4  -24.8   +20.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.5   -1.0    +2.5   4753.0  +45.1 -1614.6

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2903.8  -38.3  -618.5     40.2   -0.3  -261.8    100.4   -2.2   -71.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    31.1   +0.6   -95.0      0.3   -0.3   -19.1     30.7   +3.4  -108.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    32.9   -1.6    -2.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      4.8   -2.1    -5.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   228.9  +17.9   -22.8     12.2   -1.1  -143.6      0.4   -0.4   -79.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.8   +0.8    +0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     87.0   -3.8   +27.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.6   -0.8    +0.6   3387.2  -24.4 -1427.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #479 on: September 20, 2017, 07:05:20 PM »
Updating the basin-only NSIDC NT graphs.

A-Team

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #480 on: September 20, 2017, 11:14:43 PM »
First five days are UH AMSR2 to Sept 19th, then ESRL picks up in 6 hr increments to Sept 29th (using data of aice_h from REB.2017-09-19b ftp://ftp1.esrl.noaa.gov/RASM-ESRL/ModelOutput).
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 11:20:39 PM by A-Team »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #481 on: September 21, 2017, 01:46:59 PM »
In case there were any lingering doubts as to whether 2017 had, indeed, bottomed out, NSIDC put that to rest today with an SIE increase of 94k, the largest one-day growth spurt since early March. The number is now at 4.847M km2, nearly a quarter of a million square kilometers higher than the September 12th nadir of 4.611.



So it shall be written, so it shall be done...

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #482 on: September 21, 2017, 07:21:42 PM »
Over two/third of that extent increase is in the CAA. Interesting perhaps, but not realistic. The area drop in contrast comes from the CAB.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-20 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3848.6  +10.8  -400.5    103.1   -3.3  -345.5    155.1   +5.1  -123.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    73.5   +3.2  -142.4      1.3   -0.0   -43.9     84.0  +13.5  -175.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    65.9   +0.7    -2.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     18.0   +5.5   -10.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   455.7  +67.5   +40.5     39.5   -7.0  -211.7      0.6   +0.0  -136.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -1.2    -2.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    154.9   -1.4   +20.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   -0.5    +2.0   4847.4  +94.4 -1551.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2847.5  -56.3  -683.4     37.2   -3.0  -269.4     96.5   -3.9   -79.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    31.7   +0.6   -96.5      0.2   -0.1   -19.5     42.7  +12.0  -101.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    36.0   +3.1    -0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.0   +1.1    -4.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   260.0  +31.1    +4.4     11.2   -1.0  -146.8      0.4   -0.0   -81.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.8    -0.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     85.4   -1.6   +27.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.5   -0.1    +0.5   3370.0  -17.2 -1478.4


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Rob Dekker

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #483 on: September 22, 2017, 07:03:20 AM »
Now that is clear that the daily minimum (NSIDC) was reached September 12 at 4.611 M km^2,
it is interesting to speculate about the NSIDC monthly average.

Last year, we saw a daily minimum of 4.15 which resulted in monthly average of 4.72.
Much of that was caused by the odd way in which NSIDC calculates the monthly average, but still it is a 0.57 M km^2 difference.

So if 2017 grows ice for the remainder of September by as fast as 2016 did (and much depends on the last week of September) then we may end up at 4.611 + 0.57 = 5.18 M km^2 for the NSIDC September average....

Let's see where this goes. This melting season has been quite interesting.

oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #484 on: September 22, 2017, 10:04:54 AM »
NSIDC monthly "average" in a growth month is more or less the extent at the 75% mark of the month, ~Sep 23rd. The minimum figure has little to do with it. I doubt it will pass 5 M km2.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #485 on: September 22, 2017, 07:01:05 PM »

it is interesting to speculate about the NSIDC monthly average.
[...]
Let's see where this goes. This melting season has been quite interesting.

Yes. NSIDC monthly average is not really the average-of-extent, rather it is the extent of the average-of-sea-ice-concentration.

Movement of ice will blow up the value as a consequence of the 15% rule.

It is my impression that the ice pack does not move as much as in 2016, so the blow-up factor may be less. Depending on the last 9 days in September of course.

   

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #486 on: September 22, 2017, 07:06:25 PM »
Slight drops in extent and area. The ice edge facing the ESS did retreat noticable.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-21 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3854.1   +5.5  -399.2     91.5  -11.6  -361.9    161.6   +6.6  -122.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    74.3   +0.7  -146.7      0.7   -0.6   -46.7     90.4   +6.4  -171.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    65.4   -0.5    -2.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     10.3   -7.8   -18.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   442.8  -12.9   +16.2     33.1   -6.3  -219.1      0.6   +0.0  -136.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +1.2    -1.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    160.6   +5.7   +28.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.5   +0.5    +2.5   4828.4  -18.9 -1607.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2820.5  -27.0  -719.8     30.9   -6.4  -280.5     96.0   -0.5   -83.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    31.7   +0.1   -98.9      0.2   -0.0   -20.5     45.0   +2.3  -103.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    37.1   +1.1    +0.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      4.3   -1.7    -5.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   256.1   -4.0    -6.9     11.4   +0.2  -149.5      0.4   +0.0   -83.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.7   +0.7    +0.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     80.7   -4.6   +24.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.6   +0.1    +0.6   3334.9  -35.0 -1550.9


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Rob Dekker

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #487 on: September 23, 2017, 10:04:28 AM »
It is my impression that the ice pack does not move as much as in 2016, so the blow-up factor may be less. Depending on the last 9 days in September of course.

I agree. In late September 2016, there was a stiff eastern wind blowing over the CAA, which enhanced rapid ice grows over the Beaufort. If we don't get that wind this year my estimate will be an upper bound. Let's see what happens.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #488 on: September 23, 2017, 02:26:53 PM »
It is my impression that the ice pack does not move as much as in 2016, so the blow-up factor may be less. Depending on the last 9 days in September of course.

I agree. In late September 2016, there was a stiff eastern wind blowing over the CAA, which enhanced rapid ice grows over the Beaufort. If we don't get that wind this year my estimate will be an upper bound. Let's see what happens.

The 11-day extent for the first 11 days was 4.712, and the area already within the monthly extent at that date was 4.029. (Tealight's calculations in the prediction thread.)

The Slater SIPN projection was 4.77 and September is following the 50-day version pretty closely, so its hard to bet on much above that but only 0.16 above minimum for the September extent takes a really flat September. I think its looking 4.8-4.9ish but I'd prefer to see an update from Tealight before putting much confidence in how I think its tracking.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #489 on: September 23, 2017, 07:29:53 PM »
Drops both in extent and area. The refreezing lacks momentum (compared with years 2013,2014,2015 and 2016).

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-22 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3837.9  -16.2  -418.4     81.9   -9.6  -375.9    162.3   +0.7  -125.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    73.6   -0.7  -152.0      0.0   -0.7   -47.2     89.9   -0.5  -177.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    62.9   -2.5    -5.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     15.3   +5.1    -9.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   429.9  -12.9    -0.5     47.1  +14.0  -207.7      0.6   +0.0  -138.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +0.0    -1.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    138.2  -22.5    +1.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   -0.5    +2.0   4804.6  -23.9 -1656.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2788.1  -32.4  -766.3     27.9   -2.9  -286.5     95.6   -0.4   -87.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    31.1   -0.6  -102.1      0.0   -0.2   -21.2     45.5   +0.5  -109.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    34.6   -2.5    -2.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.3   +1.0    -3.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   240.2  -15.9   -27.3     15.2   +3.8  -149.1      0.4   +0.0   -85.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.8   +0.0    +0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     74.8   -6.0   +16.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.4   -0.1    +0.4   3285.2  -49.7 -1640.5


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Cid_Yama

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #490 on: September 24, 2017, 04:56:12 AM »

Niall Dollard

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #491 on: September 24, 2017, 12:23:57 PM »
Weird or just synoptics?

That big Arctic depression, centred currently near the pole, was never going to be a friend to the ice. It is expected to fill slowly allowing a bit of a cool down on the Russian side.

But next week the ice will be under attack with warm air coming up the Atlantic and North America.

So going by the forecasts, the ice will be struggling still over next 10 days at least.  :(

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #492 on: September 24, 2017, 05:31:21 PM »
Update for the week to September 23rd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,814,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,839,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,589,000km2, a decrease from -1,625,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +683,000km2, an increase from +638,000km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, down from 7th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +22.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +17.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +16.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +43.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +29.9k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 20th least negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 123.0k/day is required (more than 167.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 30.6k/day (drop of at least -47.7k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 40.8k/day (52.2k/day with single day values).



The 5 day average value of 4,635,000km2 from the 13th is likely to be the minimum for the year.
This is the 8th lowest on record.


Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #493 on: September 24, 2017, 07:46:51 PM »
Small increases all caused outside the basin.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-23 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3834.7   -3.2  -425.0     81.2   -0.6  -382.2    170.8   +8.5  -123.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    75.5   +1.9  -150.1      0.7   +0.7   -49.0     99.6   +9.7  -171.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    72.6   +9.7    +1.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     15.6   +0.3    -7.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   442.7  +12.8    +6.0     42.0   -5.1  -214.6      0.6   +0.0  -139.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   -0.0    -0.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    131.3   -6.9    -7.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   +0.0    +2.0   4839.2  +34.6 -1654.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2791.0   +2.9  -778.5     27.4   -0.5  -289.6     96.5   +0.9   -90.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    32.2   +1.1  -101.8      0.2   +0.2   -22.6     48.4   +2.9  -111.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    38.8   +4.2    +0.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.1   +0.8    -2.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   254.9  +14.7   -18.1     14.4   -0.9  -152.2      0.4   +0.0   -87.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.2   -0.6    -0.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     71.7   -2.8   +11.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.4   +0.0    +0.4   3311.0  +25.8 -1654.3


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #494 on: September 25, 2017, 06:58:04 PM »
Small extent drop, bit bigger drop in area.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-24 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3842.0   +7.2  -420.0     79.2   -2.0  -390.7    178.0   +7.2  -124.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    74.8   -0.7  -153.9      0.0   -0.7   -52.0    107.0   +7.4  -172.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    77.5   +4.9    +7.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     16.8   +1.2    -7.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   432.2  -10.5    -8.8     39.5   -2.5  -219.9      0.6   +0.0  -141.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   +0.0    -0.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    143.3  +12.0    +6.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.0   -0.0    +2.0   4850.7  +11.5 -1681.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2822.5  +31.5  -765.3     26.4   -1.0  -295.7    101.5   +5.0   -91.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    33.4   +1.1  -104.2      0.0   -0.2   -24.1     49.7   +1.3  -118.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    40.9   +2.1    +2.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      6.7   +0.6    -1.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   264.7   +9.9   -15.2     15.4   +1.0  -153.7      0.4   +0.0   -89.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.2   -0.0    -0.2      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     77.4   +5.7   +18.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.4   -0.0    +0.4   3362.2  +51.3 -1656.5


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #495 on: September 25, 2017, 07:03:31 PM »
And an update of the basin-only graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #496 on: September 26, 2017, 06:41:29 PM »
Also NSIDC sees  increases in extent and area, with over a century for area.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-25 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3870.1  +28.1  -397.4     77.4   -1.9  -398.2    199.5  +21.5  -112.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    78.7   +3.9  -156.7      1.3   +1.3   -51.8    104.8   -2.2  -181.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    62.1  -15.4    -7.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     10.8   -5.9   -12.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   452.0  +19.8    +0.9     40.8   +1.3  -221.1      0.6   +0.0  -142.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -1.2    -1.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    139.0   -4.8    +1.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     3.5   +1.5    +3.5   4901.5  +50.8 -1678.9

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2906.5  +84.1  -696.8     26.9   +0.5  -300.5    118.3  +16.8   -79.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    36.4   +3.0  -105.9      0.5   +0.5   -24.8     54.6   +4.9  -120.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    34.8   -6.1    -3.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      4.7   -2.0    -3.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   273.5   +8.7   -11.8     15.5   +0.1  -157.5      0.4   -0.0   -91.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   -0.2    -0.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     79.3   +1.9   +20.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.8   +0.3    +0.8   3472.8 +110.6 -1595.5


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #497 on: September 27, 2017, 07:19:42 PM »
Century extent dropincrease, mostly within the Basin.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-09-26 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3930.6  +60.5  -341.6     88.3  +10.9  -394.0    213.8  +14.3  -108.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    85.3   +6.6  -156.5      2.6   +1.3   -52.2    101.7   -3.0  -189.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    71.2   +9.1    -1.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     11.5   +0.7    -9.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   459.4   +7.4    +3.0     40.8   -0.0  -224.4      0.6   +0.0  -144.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -1.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    146.8   +7.8   +12.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     2.5   -1.0    +2.5   5008.3 +106.8 -1618.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  2986.4  +79.9  -635.6     33.5   +6.6  -298.7    134.2  +15.9   -70.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
    36.7   +0.4  -109.3      1.0   +0.5   -25.5     48.9   -5.7  -131.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    37.3   +2.5    -2.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0      5.1   +0.4    -2.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   270.2   -3.3   -21.7     15.8   +0.3  -161.7      0.4   -0.0   -94.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.0   +0.0    -0.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0     81.5   +2.2   +24.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     0.7   -0.0    +0.7   3570.4  +97.5 -1553.7


Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2017, 06:12:40 PM by Wipneus »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #498 on: September 27, 2017, 07:27:48 PM »
Century extent drop, mostly within the Basin.

Century extent drop or century extent increase?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #499 on: September 27, 2017, 09:48:19 PM »
Freeze momentum is picking up.