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Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #550 on: October 21, 2017, 10:22:44 AM »
Thanks Juan, here are links to (1) the news and (2) the detailed report, including 21 tables and 106 figures:

https://nsidc.org/the-drift/data-update/noaansidc-releases-sea-ice-index-version-3-0/
https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/files/NSIDC-special-report-19.pdf

Steven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #551 on: October 21, 2017, 01:05:23 PM »
Comparing the old and new versions of NSIDC September extent:



The difference between the two versions is about 0.1 million km2 on average.  The differences are somewhat larger for the 1980s and for some individual years like 1996 (0.33M km2) and 2016 (0.21M km2).

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #552 on: October 21, 2017, 04:06:40 PM »
JAXA DATA
As far as extent is concerned so far this freezing season has been average - extent gain to 20th October of 2.56 million km2 as opposed to the average of 2.63 m km2, but some 0.4 million km2 more than last year.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #553 on: October 24, 2017, 12:34:21 PM »
JAXA DATA
A bit of a slowdown in freezing over the last three days. Extent gain to date is 2.8 million km2, as opposed to the 10 year average of 3.04 million km2, (30% of average total extent gain).
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #554 on: October 25, 2017, 02:27:52 PM »
Thanks JP for keeping this chart going. Looks like 2017 is content to hang with the lower part of this decade's pack in the early part of the freeze season.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #555 on: October 25, 2017, 06:41:53 PM »
It is nor all up: a drop in extent and area from NSIDC NT sea ice concentration today. The UH AMSR2 also has a very small increase in extent and small drop in area.

Pavel

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #556 on: October 25, 2017, 08:34:29 PM »
If the Pacific side will remain warm SIE could get to the second place in November. The first place is also possible espessially if the big peripheral seas such as SoO and Hudson bay will delay freeze.

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #557 on: October 25, 2017, 09:31:46 PM »
If the Pacific side will remain warm SIE could get to the second place in November. The first place is also possible espessially if the big peripheral seas such as SoO and Hudson bay will delay freeze.

chances are high right now, there is a storm predicted to flow in through bering with temps far above average and wind directions more or less southerly a few days out. if that becomes true we shall certainly see no growth but decline even in that area.

at the same time the atlantic side as well will see strong southerlies with temps significantly above average, hence changes for a stall in re-freeze are indeed quite high for the next 5-10 days IMO

EDIT:

BTW, png files did not pass the safety check while the same image exported as jpg passed without issue, either this is the way it is intended or someone could look into it and check whether it was a glitch or someone can reproduce.

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #558 on: October 25, 2017, 09:49:27 PM »
BTW, png files did not pass the safety check while the same image exported as jpg passed without issue, either this is the way it is intended or someone could look into it and check whether it was a glitch or someone can reproduce.

Test...

Edit: PNGs seem to work from here.
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magnamentis

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #559 on: October 26, 2017, 01:35:59 AM »
@neven

thanks for testing, means i'll have to troubleshoot on my side, knowing that it works for others helps a lot to keep dedication high ;)

echoughton

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #560 on: October 26, 2017, 02:26:28 AM »
Neven, are you saying there may be glitches with the reanalyzer temp data? It sure seems so because that bright red over Greenland and Alaska flies in the face of what I read on radar at weatherbell.com. Near or below zero in many of those locations.

Avalonian

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #561 on: October 26, 2017, 05:06:51 AM »
Neven, are you saying there may be glitches with the reanalyzer temp data? It sure seems so because that bright red over Greenland and Alaska flies in the face of what I read on radar at weatherbell.com. Near or below zero in many of those locations.

It's the anomaly, not the absolute. It should probably be a lot colder than zero in Greenland around now!

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #562 on: October 26, 2017, 09:47:27 AM »
Neven, are you saying there may be glitches with the reanalyzer temp data? It sure seems so because that bright red over Greenland and Alaska flies in the face of what I read on radar at weatherbell.com. Near or below zero in many of those locations.

No, this was about whether uploading PNG files was experiencing glitches, or wasn't functioning at all. So, I tested it as well, and for me it worked.

Back to SIA and SIE data.

JAXA shows 2017 trailing at the bottom of the pack, with 2007 and 2011 about to return to it. This year could be 3rd lowest before the month is out:
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A-Team

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #563 on: October 26, 2017, 10:32:24 AM »
Here is the regional breakdown from @zlabe. Note these are presented relative to two standard deviations of extents spanning a thirty year period, 1981-2010. These std devs vary quite markedly with the season. All the regions are at or below 2 for late October 2017, there is no anomaly or 'recovery' this year in the statistically significant sense. The early decades of Old Arctic of course weight down the statistics but are necessary to provide sufficient data.

Some of the 'seas' like the Chukchi get assigned somewhat arbitrary boundaries; temperatures in that sea are also unpredictably influenced by inflows through the Bering Strait (per decades of mooring data).
« Last Edit: October 26, 2017, 11:02:31 AM by A-Team »

Michael

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #564 on: October 26, 2017, 11:16:20 AM »
BTW, png files did not pass the safety check while the same image exported as jpg passed without issue, either this is the way it is intended or someone could look into it and check whether it was a glitch or someone can reproduce.

Test...

Edit: PNGs seem to work from here.

I have had the same problem with PNG images. It seems to be a problem with individual images. I had four nearly identical images, three passed with no trouble, the fourth failed.  Opening in an editor and saving them as a new image seems to work.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #565 on: October 31, 2017, 03:21:36 PM »
JAXA DATA
Extent gain as at October 30th continues to be a bit below the 10 year average - 3.41 million km2 as opposed to 3.78 million km2. A new record low maximum remains a possibility, but with on average only 38% of total extent gain done so far, this is merely an observation.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #566 on: November 02, 2017, 03:42:38 PM »
JAXA DATA
1 Nov extent is  7,974,795 km2

Extent gain since minimum is now (1 Nov) 0.5 million km2 less than the 10 year average extent gain.

The variation between individual years is illustrated well by that on 10th October, 2017 extent was 1.43 million km2 greater than 2012. Some 22 days later that difference has reduced to just 0.23 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #567 on: November 03, 2017, 03:16:11 PM »
JAXA may be having a day off, but http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ has the October analysis out.
Some points are:-

- October was 5th lowest month of Arctic Sea ice Extent in the satellite record,
- On the Antarctic they suggest the  Southern Annular Mode (SAM) impacts on winds determine trends in sea ice extent, and the negative SAM mode during 2016/2017 austral summer largely explained the record minimum Antarctic sea ice extent observed in March 2017,
- there is also a lot on the revised methodology of calculating the monthly sea ice extent average.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #568 on: November 03, 2017, 03:25:32 PM »
JAXA DATA
1 Nov extent is  7,974,795 km2

Extent gain since minimum is now (1 Nov) 0.5 million km2 less than the 10 year average extent gain.

The variation between individual years is illustrated well by that on 10th October, 2017 extent was 1.43 million km2 greater than 2012. Some 22 days later that difference has reduced to just 0.23 million km2.

It will be interesting to see how 2017 compares to 2016 in about 10 days as 2016 had fairly strong growth at this time last year.

Daniel B.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #569 on: November 03, 2017, 10:22:17 PM »
JAXA DATA
1 Nov extent is  7,974,795 km2

Extent gain since minimum is now (1 Nov) 0.5 million km2 less than the 10 year average extent gain.

The variation between individual years is illustrated well by that on 10th October, 2017 extent was 1.43 million km2 greater than 2012. Some 22 days later that difference has reduced to just 0.23 million km2.



It will be interesting to see how 2017 compares to 2016 in about 10 days as 2016 had fairly strong growth at this time last year.

Growth is Arctic Sea ice is largely dependent on the minimum, as years with low minina experience greater ice growth.  The two years with the greatest growth in sea ice were 2013 and 2008, both winters following record lows.  Those years with the highest minina, had the lowest ice growth.  The 2017-18 season should correlate better with the 2010-11 season than last, based on the sea ice minimum.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #570 on: November 03, 2017, 11:21:34 PM »
While still anomalously warm, temperatures north of 80 degrees are not tracking with the ridiculously warm temperatures of last year.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #571 on: November 03, 2017, 11:26:18 PM »
This increasing divergence between 2016 and 2017 can more readily be seen in the FDD Anomaly chart. Might these colder temperatures explain the more rapid SIE gains as compared to 2016?

Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #572 on: November 03, 2017, 11:27:17 PM »
While still anomalously warm, temperatures north of 80 degrees are not tracking with the ridiculously warm temperatures of last year.

I think the bottom more important than the top....I was wondering if it was going to bounce, and it did.  Still waiting to see how it tracks in the dead of winter.

Deserts get colder at night than maritime climates.  I am waiting to see if the Arctic has made a hard transition to maritime, or if it is still in flux.

A-Team

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #573 on: November 03, 2017, 11:33:21 PM »
Here is the open water extent since the 10 Sep 17 minimum (stationary black outline, 100% ice concentration in faint green) from UH AMSR2/Gimp, followed by the thickness/extent forecast out to Nov 12th per ESRL/Panoply/Gimp.

According to this, the Beaufort will have an ice cover by mid-November whereas the Chukchi will largely remain open and Atlantic Waters will still dominate north of Svalbard. There's some indication that Fram export may pick up mid-month.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 11:43:36 PM by A-Team »

A-Team

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #574 on: November 04, 2017, 10:35:33 AM »
The two supplemental images below show predicted ice and snow thickness in a discrete palette just for Nov 12th with ice with 10 cm freeboard (ie 1m thick) highlighted. At issue is the ability to support an insulating snow blanket. Snowdrifts are below the resolution of the data but may be thick enough in places in the central Arctic Ocean to somewhat inhibit ice thickening, provide it wasn't rained upon or wetted by waves.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 10:41:10 AM by A-Team »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #575 on: November 04, 2017, 01:22:33 PM »
JAXA DATA
Extent gain continues below average despite 2 days of 85k+ increases.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #576 on: November 04, 2017, 03:56:55 PM »
JAXA DATA
Extent gain continues below average despite 2 days of 85k+ increases.

Gap between 2016 and 2017 closing rapidly.

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #577 on: November 04, 2017, 09:11:00 PM »
and this is how it could happen, just a few more of those storms over open water and at relatively high temps.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2141.msg133326.html#msg133326

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #578 on: November 05, 2017, 02:04:09 PM »
Updating the NSIDC NT global sea ice extent and area graphs. They are getting interesting, have the annual maximums been reached? If so they are clearly second lowest behind the extraordinary 2016.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #579 on: November 05, 2017, 02:07:08 PM »
Updating the NSIDC NT global sea ice extent and area graphs. They are getting interesting, have the annual maximums been reached? If so they are clearly second lowest behind the extraordinary 2016.

Very interesting.  This year isn't like last year, but it isn't exactly following the pack either.

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #580 on: November 05, 2017, 03:43:35 PM »
Recovery!  8)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #581 on: November 05, 2017, 07:11:23 PM »
Neven wrote it so it must be true!  ::) (Until I realized who wrote "Recovery!", I was about to report him to the moderator.   :P)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #582 on: November 05, 2017, 08:26:41 PM »
Neven wrote it so it must be true!  ::) (Until I realized who wrote "Recovery!", I was about to report him to the moderator.   :P)

I was going to snort at Neven, but I'll just continue the thread instead.

;)

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #583 on: November 05, 2017, 09:22:04 PM »
Neven wrote it so it must be true!  ::) (Until I realized who wrote "Recovery!", I was about to report him to the moderator.   :P)

I would have banned immediately!  ;)

It's funny that if last year hadn't happened, we would now be looking at this extremely closely. I would have my finger on the trigger to shoot off a blog post. But as it stands, it's 'just' second lowest. Nevertheless, I'm still amazed when I see the 2016 trend line.

Maybe I'll do a blog post anyway.

PS I recently moved the global sea ice thread to this category (here), so we can continue there.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #584 on: November 05, 2017, 09:46:50 PM »
Neven...

Since you are a Governor and Abrupt SLR is an Emperor, does that make you some sort of bureaucrat for the Empire, serving at his whim?

And does it come with perks?

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #585 on: November 05, 2017, 10:35:42 PM »
Neven...

Since you are a Governor and Abrupt SLR is an Emperor, does that make you some sort of bureaucrat for the Empire, serving at his whim?

And does it come with perks?

It depends on whether he has clothes on or not.  ;D
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echoughton

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #586 on: November 06, 2017, 12:25:44 AM »
I would not use "recovery".  if next year is IN the pack...and the next and next...we might use that word. I would simply say "rebound"...and I'll take it.  8)

Daniel B.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #587 on: November 06, 2017, 04:09:27 AM »
I would not use "recovery".  if next year is IN the pack...and the next and next...we might use that word. I would simply say "rebound"...and I'll take it.  8)

I would echo that.  We have a long way to go, before we can say it has recovered.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #588 on: November 06, 2017, 12:30:39 PM »
JAXA DATA

On October 31st 2017 ARCTIC Sea Ice Extent was 966,277 km2 greater than 2016 (the maximum difference).
That difference has reduced to  742,486 km2 (10%) on 5th November.

Note:- for Global Extent see    
"Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC" within "Arctic Sea Ice".
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #589 on: November 06, 2017, 03:07:20 PM »
I would not use "recovery".  if next year is IN the pack...and the next and next...we might use that word. I would simply say "rebound"...and I'll take it.  8)

I wouldn't use recovery even in this were to take place. If SIE and SIA hang with the last decade which is the lowest the ice has been since we began measurements, it would not be a recovery. It could be considered a stalling in its downward slide.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #590 on: November 06, 2017, 03:11:19 PM »
Neven...

Since you are a Governor and Abrupt SLR is an Emperor, does that make you some sort of bureaucrat for the Empire, serving at his whim?

And does it come with perks?

It depends on whether he has clothes on or not.  ;D

Very drole

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #591 on: November 07, 2017, 07:35:44 AM »
Shared the Global graph on fb essentially blaming el nino for the early spring in SH and the late autumn in the NH. With the amount of lies republicans are spreading in there, i guess a slight corner cutting is allowed.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #592 on: November 07, 2017, 03:01:14 PM »
It's "surprisingly cold" over the Arctic, in spite of temperatures obviously higher than the average... What is surprising is they're only "slightly" higher than the average compared to what we've been used to see (DMI over-80 graph is quite telling). From a synoptic point of view a further cooling is to be expected in 48 hours, especially over Beaufort, Chuckchi and ESS. This should help accelerate freezing in the mentioned areas.

On a more general basis it will be interesting to see how the volume will react to these temperatures, as sea surface temperature is approaching -40C over a rather vast area between the CAB and CAA. I'm getting off-topic I know, better stop here ;)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #593 on: November 07, 2017, 09:24:22 PM »
"Surprisingly cold" and "obviously higher than average" don't really fit in the same sentence very well. Worse still, you are essentially comparing anomalies with actual temperatures. I think surprisingly cold would require significantly negative anomalies.

Brigantine

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #594 on: November 08, 2017, 12:38:47 AM »
I think surprisingly cold would require significantly negative anomalies.

Anomalies are relative. There can be a positive anomaly for an early reference period, AND a negative anomaly for a recent reference period.

Also one could make the case that it's "surprising" that there is still (multi-year) ice in the arctic, long after the 'predicted' date of its end in 2013. Surprise is relative to expectation, and while "insignificant anomalies" is a perfectly reasonable expectation to have, it's still a subjective one.

Personally, my subjective expectation was for milder temperatures, because I thought the low September ice concentration would enhance heat flux. That effect slowly died off from mid October, so I'm surprised.

Perhaps your expectations were wiser than mine :-)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #595 on: November 08, 2017, 01:57:06 AM »
Brigantine,
Who predicted the end of multi-year ice would occur in 2013 (if that' what you meant)? One climate scientist predicted something akin to ice-free Arctic in 2016 +/- 3 years.  Is this what you were referring to?

(Two years to go, but I'm not holding my breath.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

jdallen

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #596 on: November 08, 2017, 02:16:04 AM »
(Two years to go, but I'm not holding my breath.)
True enough, but I think both 2013 and 2017 started low enough that without cooperation from the weather, it could have happened.

We haven't gotten there, we probably won't, but I still think we've had what could be considered near misses.
This space for Rent.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #597 on: November 08, 2017, 02:25:43 PM »
What is the current area of Arctic ice over two years old, and how does that area compare to our favorite size for essentially ice-free (1MK)?

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #598 on: November 08, 2017, 02:58:52 PM »

Personally, my subjective expectation was for milder temperatures, because I thought the low September ice concentration would enhance heat flux. That effect slowly died off from mid October, so I'm surprised.

Perhaps your expectations were wiser than mine :-)

The low ice concentration is resulting in enhanced heat flux which is why the temperatures are not surprisingly low (to me at least). Both on the Pacific side and the Atlantic side, the anomalies are quite large. In fact, the only place we see negative anomalies is along the CAA. Please explain to me how positive anomalies of up to 20C can be surprisingly low.

Perhaps your expectations were more pessimistic than mine.  ;)

Also, Neven has done a spectacular job on ASIB...

http://neven1.typepad.com/


...providing access in one place to a broad range of graphs, charts and maps about the state of the Arctic which helps to stimulate conversation. It would be helpful if commenters would post relevant data to support their comments. Just click on the 'Arctic Sea Ice Graphs' link on the right and you will be wandering through a treasure trove of Arctic information! You simply cannot find as comprehensive of a data resource anywhere else on the internet!

« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 03:29:20 PM by Shared Humanity »

Daniel B.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #599 on: November 08, 2017, 05:01:41 PM »
(Two years to go, but I'm not holding my breath.)
True enough, but I think both 2013 and 2017 started low enough that without cooperation from the weather, it could have happened.

We haven't gotten there, we probably won't, but I still think we've had what could be considered near misses.

The weather likely had little to do with it.  Historically, the lowest summer minima have resulted in the largest ice gains the following winter.  The largest gain in sea ice extent gain (10.283 million sq km) occurred in 2013 because the previous summer minimum was so low.  The second highest gain on record occurred in 2008, following the 2007 minimum.  The growth in sea ice extent is correlated to how much open water exists in the Arctic.  Summer melt is much more closely correlated with the weather.