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Author Topic: Population: Public Enemy No. 1  (Read 84184 times)

Paddy

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #400 on: December 22, 2017, 06:04:36 AM »
Agreed re the deaths of despair, slthough the opioid deaths slso represent a failure in both pain control practice and public health.

A curious statistical note about this data is that age-adjusted death rates actually reduced in spite of the drop in life expectancy. This happened because life expectancy is a median figure, and the distribution of deaths changed, with older adults slightly less likely to die than previously and younger adults slightly more likely:

The age-adjusted death rate for the total population decreased 0.6% from 733.1 per 100,000 standard population in 2015 to 728.8 in 2016

...

Death rates increased significantly between 2015 and 2016 for age groups 15–24 (7.8%), 25–34 (10.5%), 35–44 (6.7%), and 55–64 (1.0%) (Figure 3).

Death rates decreased significantly for age groups 65–74 (0.5%), 75–84 (2.3%), and 85 and over (2.1%).

Total deaths in the USA, meanwhile, increased by 30000 to 2.74 million in spite of this drop in the age-adjusted death rate, an apparent discrepancy that can be explained by population aging plus 0.7% per annum population growth.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #401 on: December 25, 2017, 01:33:23 AM »
Singapore’s Aging 'Time Bomb' Will Tick Louder in 2018
- Population of 65 years and older to match youngest: UOB’s Tan
- Faster aging will necessitate policy changes, including tax

Next year marks an ominous turning point for Singapore’s graying population, according to research by Francis Tan, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore.

In 2018, the share of the population that’s 65 years and older will match those younger than 15 for the first time, Tan wrote in a report on Wednesday. As the elderly population starts to crowd out the youth, the “demographic time bomb” may mean changes to taxes, immigration rules, and social services, he said.

“Singapore is facing one of the toughest economic and social challenges since its independence in the form of a rapidly aging workforce and population,” Tan said. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-12-06/more-grandmas-means-singapore-time-bomb-ticks-louder-in-2018
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Hefaistos

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #402 on: January 01, 2018, 10:14:45 PM »
This is not primarily about population, but as India is one of the real fast growers in terms of population, I thought it might fit in this thread.
It's about consumption preferences as poor people get a higher average income. One of the most needed and preferred consumption good is the air conditioner. Across South Asia, whose tropical zones include some of the world’s largest cities, extreme heat waves are becoming more common and deadly, making air conditioners lifesaving pieces of technology.

 "As temperatures and incomes rise, the air conditioner is now what Nikit Abhyankar, a researcher at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory calls “a threshold good — the moment you cross into that middle-class income level, you go and buy one.”

"By 2030, Abhyankar projects, the explosion in air conditioning alone will raise India’s electricity demands by 150 gigawatts, the equivalent of adding three economies the size of California to its power grid.

Most of that electricity will come from coal, pumping out more of the carbon emissions that are blamed for worsening pollution, respiratory diseases, millions of premature deaths and hotter air temperatures — which will only push people to buy more air conditioners.

India is in the midst of one of the biggest urban transitions in history, with more than 400 million people projected to migrate to cities by 2050. "

This is one of the reasons why this thread is headlined 'Population:  Public Enemy No. 1'. Not that earth's population grows rapidly, or that we are too many people, but that it grows in the poorest countries, where the masses have consumption preferences that are very detrimental to our climate. India, Africa (south of Sahara), etc.

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-india-air-conditioners-2017-story.html

wili

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #403 on: January 01, 2018, 10:31:10 PM »
It always struck me that AC should be the appliance most practically and easily sold with dedicated plug-n-play solar panels. You generally need AC most when the sun is shining, and if you can cool the temp of your home or apt enough in the afternoon, they will likely keep fairly cool through the night. I assume AC can be manufactured to take direct current right from the panel, right?

Dehumidifiers would likely also get people most of the way to the comfort they seek, at a much lower electric demand.

But yeah, the 'human feedback' you point out here is one of many that are likely to bite us. The US, of course, has long been at the forefront of AC adoption, and could point the way toward various alternatives.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2018, 01:12:18 AM by wili »
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Hefaistos

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #404 on: January 02, 2018, 11:23:17 AM »
It always struck me that AC should be the appliance most practically and easily sold with dedicated plug-n-play solar panels. You generally need AC most when the sun is shining, and if you can cool the temp of your home or apt enough in the afternoon, they will likely keep fairly cool through the night. I assume AC can be manufactured to take direct current right from the panel, right?

Dehumidifiers would likely also get people most of the way to the comfort they seek, at a much lower electric demand.

But yeah, the 'human feedback' you point out here is one of many that are likely to bite us. The US, of course, has long been at the forefront of AC adoption, and could point the way toward various alternatives.

Sure, it's no big deal, technically speaking. But it will add to cost, so poor Indians won't buy the AC with solar panels. In the quoted article, it's evident that Indians are extremely cost conscious as they arise from poverty. An AC that costs $500 is beyond reach for most people, and if you add solar panels to the unit it will be an option only for the richer hipsters.
De-humidifiers also suck a lot of energy, b.t.w. A bit less than an AC, but not that big difference, afaik.

ghoti

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #405 on: January 02, 2018, 03:12:59 PM »
It always struck me that AC should be the appliance most practically and easily sold with dedicated plug-n-play solar panels.
Solar PV doesn't produce enough electricity per m2 to be practical to power A/C. At peak output you'd need about 5 m2 of panel to produce 1000W and that's not enough to power most small A/C units. You need a large array and probably batteries to run an air conditioner.

gerontocrat

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #406 on: January 02, 2018, 04:03:04 PM »
Back in 1990 when in Karachi one of my Brit colleagues noticed how many of the houses come with flat roofs. He said we could collect heat on the roofs, use it to power a compressor that compressed air into a cylinder at high pressure, and then a pressure valve releases the air into the rooms below -  air released this way is cold. In other words - a really cheap frigidaire.

The hotter the weather the better the system would work.

We found no takers.
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pileus

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #407 on: January 02, 2018, 04:31:50 PM »
Nothing has solidified my sense of hopelessness for the future climate more than driving through (more technically correct, being driven through by a driver) several of India’s large cities.  Knowing that consumption is only going to increase and multiply as living standards raise, and much like traffic there the results will be chaotic.  I’ve always thought that sanitation and access to clean water and toilets should be a larger priority than something like AC, as more than a half billion there practice open defication.

None of this is to suggest that Indians are more culpable than the US and western countries that have created the great majority of the global warming crisis.  It’s just disconcerting for the future biosphere as hundreds of millions across India and Asia come on line as consumers and polluters.

Paddy

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #408 on: January 02, 2018, 04:37:19 PM »
There are much cheaper ways to cool buildings than traditional A.C., such as a Bangladeshi invention called the Eco-cooler: https://inhabitat.com/this-amazing-bangladeshi-air-cooler-is-made-from-plastic-bottles-and-uses-no-electricity/

But yes, solar a.c. units cost at least a couple thousand us $

TerryM

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Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #409 on: January 02, 2018, 06:57:21 PM »
There are much cheaper ways to cool buildings than traditional A.C., such as a Bangladeshi invention called the Eco-cooler: https://inhabitat.com/this-amazing-bangladeshi-air-cooler-is-made-from-plastic-bottles-and-uses-no-electricity/

But yes, solar a.c. units cost at least a couple thousand us $
I'm truly sorry to rain on this parade, but if this were to operate as advertised it would at best provide the benefits of a fan, not an air conditioner.
If the ambient temperature is 35 C, this apparatus might help bring the interior temperature down toward this 35 C temperature, always assuming that provisions have been made to exhaust an equal volume of air, but never lower.
An A/C on the other hand will drop the temperature of the air by ~10 C every pass through the coils.


Reverse chimneys can lower temperatures close to wet bulb temperatures which can be quite chilly in low humidity regions. They require no electricity if provisions are made to get water to the apex of the unit, and they provide a fan like airflow.


The State of Arizona has been using these at highway rest stops for decades.


I've designed on paper a positive flow chimney that sucks input air through ground level inlets covered by wet pads, thereby eliminating the need to get the water to above the roof height, but it still requires water being evaporated, and a fairly airtight structure to be effective.
Terry