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Author Topic: 2017 ENSO  (Read 58347 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #400 on: July 24, 2017, 05:11:09 PM »
No more 'bullish about the future' (this year, anyway)!
Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov remains bullish on El Niño appearing this year.  Of course "bullish about the future" is different from El Niño has arrived.

Monthly:

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #401 on: July 24, 2017, 05:20:28 PM »
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices data & the accompanying plots issued today by both NOAA (Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA, respectively) & the BoM (Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively), ENSO conditions continue their slow decline into neutral conditions:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #402 on: July 24, 2017, 05:23:29 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending July 23 2017, were all issued today by the BoM, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they indicate that ENSO conditions are continuing their slow decline into neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #403 on: July 24, 2017, 05:42:20 PM »
The linked reference indicates that extreme El Nino events could double in frequency if/when we reach a 1.5C increase in global mean surface temperature anom. relative to pre-industrial:

Guojian Wang, et. al. (2017), " Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3351

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3351.html?foxtrotcallback=true

Abstract: "The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5) under a most likely emission scenario, we demonstrate that extreme El Niño frequency increases linearly with the GMT towards a doubling at 1.5 °C warming. This increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events continues for up to a century after GMT has stabilized, underpinned by an oceanic thermocline deepening that sustains faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the off-equatorial region. Ultimately, this implies a higher risk of extreme El Niño to future generations after GMT rise has halted. On the other hand, whereas previous research suggests extreme La Niña events may double in frequency under the 4.5 °C warming scenario, the results presented here indicate little to no change under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming."

See also: "‘Extreme’ El Niños to double in frequency under 1.5C of warming, study says"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-el-ninos-double-frequency-under-one-point-five-celsius-warming-study

Extract: "Now a new study, published in Nature Climate Change, suggests that similar “extreme” El Niño events could become more frequent as global temperatures rise.

If global warming reaches 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – the aspirational limit of the Paris Agreement – extreme El Niño events could happen twice as often, the researchers find.

That means seeing an extreme El Niño on average every 10 years, rather every 20 years."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #404 on: July 25, 2017, 03:27:53 AM »
Per the attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.1:
« Last Edit: July 26, 2017, 03:31:12 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #405 on: July 25, 2017, 04:08:38 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -6.1:

+6.1
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #406 on: July 25, 2017, 04:11:41 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -6.1:

+6.1

Thanks, fixed.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #407 on: July 26, 2017, 03:29:28 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.4:

20170625,20170724,5.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #408 on: July 26, 2017, 03:44:21 PM »
Do we have a thread for a request for paywalled papers?  this one looks important and the abstract doesn't give the results. 

Is El Niño really changing?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074515/full
Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific climate variability, with global impacts. Understanding how the statistics of ENSO events may be changing in response to global warming is of great interest and importance for society. A clear detection of such signals in observations has however been obscured by large event-to-event differences and apparent “regime shifts” such as that of the late 1970s. In particular, despite extensive research, it is not clear to what extent the observed long-term changes are systemic or random. Here we show using a multi-component linear inverse modeling technique that statistically significant systemic changes have indeed occurred in ENSO dynamics since the late 1970s, and have affected the evolution of El Niño and La Niña events from their embryonic to fully mature stages.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #409 on: July 27, 2017, 03:57:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Andre

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #410 on: July 27, 2017, 06:01:10 AM »
Do we have a thread for a request for paywalled papers?  this one looks important and the abstract doesn't give the results.


Check the pinned thread:

Pay-Walled Scientific Publications: Requests and Linked Access
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,221.0.html

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #411 on: July 28, 2017, 03:41:09 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #412 on: July 29, 2017, 07:15:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #413 on: July 30, 2017, 03:27:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant for the third day in a row at +6.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #414 on: July 31, 2017, 03:30:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #415 on: July 31, 2017, 05:09:09 PM »
The accompanying information (plots & data) issued by both NOAA & the BoM indicate that the ENSO is very clearly in a neutral pattern at the present time.  The first two plots are from NOAA & show the upper ocean heat anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two plots are from the BoM & show the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #416 on: July 31, 2017, 05:11:13 PM »
The four weekly Nino indices plots were all issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they indicate that the ENSO is currently in a neutral pattern:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #417 on: August 01, 2017, 03:27:28 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +8.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #418 on: August 02, 2017, 03:34:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #419 on: August 03, 2017, 03:26:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #420 on: August 04, 2017, 03:53:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.4:
« Last Edit: August 05, 2017, 03:25:57 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #421 on: August 05, 2017, 03:26:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +7.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #422 on: August 06, 2017, 04:15:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #423 on: August 07, 2017, 03:51:54 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #424 on: August 07, 2017, 05:07:23 PM »

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino index values thru the week centered on August 2 2017, the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two images issued today by the BoM for the weekly Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively; the ENSO condition remains neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #425 on: August 07, 2017, 05:08:56 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending August 6 2017 & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #426 on: August 08, 2017, 03:26:28 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #427 on: August 09, 2017, 03:30:26 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #428 on: August 10, 2017, 05:26:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #429 on: August 11, 2017, 03:29:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #430 on: August 11, 2017, 05:58:04 PM »
For your consideration for possible implications to future El Nino events:

Guomin Wang & Harry H. Hendon (10 August 2017), "Why 2015 was a strong El Niño and 2014 was not", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074244

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074244/abstract?utm_content=buffer9bcf4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Anomalous oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific were similar in the early months of 2014 and 2015, both apparently favoring onset of El Niño. Despite high expectations, the 2014 event did not truly take hold, but the 2015 event developed into a very strong El Niño. Here we argue that mean state differences played important roles in promoting El Niño in 2015 and not favoring growth in 2014. We show that the mean state difference in the Pacific between 2015 and 2014 was similar to the shift from cold phase to warm phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). We demonstrate this mean state change affected El Niño development between the two years using a forecast sensitivity experiment. The cold IPO-like mean state during 2014 acted to reduce the coupled feedbacks while the warm IPO-like mean state of 2015 acted to enhance the coupled feedbacks."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #431 on: August 11, 2017, 07:19:15 PM »
excellent graphic here that shows loss of CO2 sink during last El Nino (as well as historic) http://folk.uio.no/roberan/t/CO2_drivers.shtml
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #432 on: August 12, 2017, 03:26:26 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has shot up to +5.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #433 on: August 13, 2017, 03:28:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #434 on: August 14, 2017, 03:26:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #435 on: August 14, 2017, 05:15:00 PM »
All of the associated NOAA and BoM data/plots indicate that ENSO conditions are currently neutral, and are likely moving towards the cool side of neutral in the coming weeks/months.  The first two attached NOAA plots show the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  The last two attached BoM plots show the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, through the week ending August 13, 2017, respectively:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #436 on: August 14, 2017, 05:20:14 PM »
The four attached plots of BoM weekly Nino indices (through the week ending August 13 2017), show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  These plots all indicate neutral ENSO conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #437 on: August 15, 2017, 03:35:39 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #438 on: August 15, 2017, 09:51:48 PM »
ASLR, todays figure from NOAA wrt OHC shows a skydive downward.



Second, the PDO value for July was a meager +0,10 so the long positive streak is still therebut it remains to see if it will survive August too.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #439 on: August 16, 2017, 03:33:49 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #440 on: August 16, 2017, 05:22:41 PM »
ASLR, todays figure from NOAA wrt OHC shows a skydive downward.
snip
Second, the PDO value for July was a meager +0,10 so the long positive streak is still there but it remains to see if it will survive August too.

The attached images (first of Cowan's Nino 3.4 issued today & the second of the NOAA Nino 3.4 forecast, also issued today), concur that we are rapidly moving to the cool side of neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #441 on: August 17, 2017, 03:38:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #442 on: August 18, 2017, 03:33:15 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.9:
« Last Edit: August 19, 2017, 03:27:46 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #443 on: August 19, 2017, 03:28:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #444 on: August 20, 2017, 03:29:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #445 on: August 21, 2017, 03:28:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #446 on: August 21, 2017, 04:53:48 PM »
The first two NOAA images show the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, both issued today.  The last two images were issued today by the BoM and show plots of the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, for the week ending August 20, 2017.  This data clearly indicates that we are currently in an ENSO neutral condition.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #447 on: August 21, 2017, 04:56:09 PM »
The four attached images of weekly Nino data were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending August 20, 2017; & show the Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4 indices, respectively.  This information clearly indicates that the ENSO condition is currently neutral.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #448 on: August 22, 2017, 03:27:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #449 on: August 22, 2017, 12:10:57 PM »
While we continue to be in ENSO-neutral condition, the Western Pacific has warmed significantly over the last month or so. By the same time anomalously cooling of the Eastern and Central Pacific have panned out. As the easterlies seems to continue for some more time but continue to be in ENSO-neutral state, I think we can be fairly sure that an El Niño will evolve over next year and probably be a really strong one with an ONI somewhere in the range 1,6-1,9.

Should be able to push the global temperatures up another 0,10-0,15C putting us closer to 1,5C above pre-industrial. Will likely be followed by an at least moderate La Niña in 2019/20.