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jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #450 on: August 22, 2017, 05:58:00 PM »
Will likely be followed by an at least moderate La Niña in 2019/20.

Not if we are now moving into a new regime of semi-perpetual El Nino/Neutral conditions.

I predicted an El Nino this year when the La Nina did not occur after 2015/2016.  This was based on recent science looking at South East Asian Aerosol impacts on surface wind patterns in Nino 3/4 regions.  I observed the rapid reduction in coal consumption in China that year and thought that it was due to an aggressive shift toward reducing air pollution. 

In reality, the reduction in coal reports came from an increase in the washing of coal, a way to increase energy efficiency of processes, with no real net change in total consumption (just less reported deliveries with better combustion of the total mass delivered to sites). 

While China is working to reduce air pollution, they are not working on it as aggressively as I had thought.  They will continue but won't achieve significant (35% or better) SO2 emissions reductions for another 5-6 years, unless we have another global economic shock.

The fact that we are seeing these impacts toward a shift to perpetual El Nino/Neutral conditions already shows that the impacts of SO2 in Asia on ENSO is much greater than even the most recent published science (based on models and some early - circa 2014-2016 observations are showing).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #451 on: August 23, 2017, 03:30:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #452 on: August 24, 2017, 03:27:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #453 on: August 25, 2017, 03:27:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #454 on: August 26, 2017, 03:30:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #455 on: August 27, 2017, 03:31:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.8:
« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 05:26:22 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #456 on: August 28, 2017, 05:27:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #457 on: August 28, 2017, 06:48:25 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data, the first two images issued today by NOAA of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last to images of the BoM's weekly (thru the week ending August 27 2017) Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively; the ENSO condition remains neutral.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #458 on: August 28, 2017, 06:50:59 PM »
The BoM issued the attached weekly Nino plots through the week ending August 27 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices respectively.  These plots confirm that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #459 on: August 29, 2017, 03:49:23 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #460 on: August 30, 2017, 03:26:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #461 on: August 31, 2017, 03:32:04 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #462 on: September 01, 2017, 03:26:10 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #463 on: September 02, 2017, 03:27:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #464 on: September 03, 2017, 03:39:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +3.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #465 on: September 04, 2017, 03:26:22 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +3.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #466 on: September 04, 2017, 05:55:31 PM »
The following NOAA weekly Nino indices data through the week centered on August 30 2017; the first two images NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution both issued today; and the last two images issued by the BoM thru the week ending Sept 3 2017 showing the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD values, respectively; the ENSO conditions have cooled slightly but remain clearly neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #467 on: September 04, 2017, 05:59:04 PM »
The four attached images show weekly Nino index values thru the week ending Sept 3 2017, and were all issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, these plots indicate that ENSO conditions remain neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #468 on: September 05, 2017, 03:30:18 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #469 on: September 06, 2017, 03:31:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #470 on: September 07, 2017, 03:32:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #471 on: September 08, 2017, 03:26:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #472 on: September 09, 2017, 03:26:26 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #473 on: September 10, 2017, 03:26:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #474 on: September 11, 2017, 03:27:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #475 on: September 11, 2017, 06:48:59 PM »
While in the following NOAA weekly Nino data through the week centered on Sept 6 2017, the Nino 3.4 last week dropped down to -0.6; nevertheless, the attached images (first two showing NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, both issued today; and the last two of the BoM's Nino 3.4 and IOD for the week ending Sept 10 2017), the ENSO condition remains on the cool side of neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #476 on: September 11, 2017, 06:51:15 PM »
The four attached images show the BoM's weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending Sept 10 2017,  Collectively, they indicate continuing (but cooling) neutral ENSO conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #477 on: September 12, 2017, 03:26:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +6.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #478 on: September 13, 2017, 03:26:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +6.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #479 on: September 14, 2017, 03:25:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #480 on: September 14, 2017, 05:00:11 PM »
A La Niña Watch has been issued by @NOAA. Up to 60 percent chance one forms this fall or winter
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/908316583843508224
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #481 on: September 15, 2017, 03:28:31 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #482 on: September 16, 2017, 03:32:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #483 on: September 17, 2017, 03:28:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #484 on: September 18, 2017, 03:28:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #485 on: September 18, 2017, 05:45:03 PM »
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data, the first two images issued today by NOAA of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued by the BoM showing the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, thru the week ending Sept 17 2017; the ENSO condition continues to cool but remains neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #486 on: September 18, 2017, 05:47:33 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Sept 17 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate that ENSO conditions continue to cool towards La Nina like conditions, but currently remain ENSO neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #487 on: September 19, 2017, 03:25:47 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #488 on: September 20, 2017, 03:28:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #489 on: September 20, 2017, 01:47:53 PM »
I know all the data says we are in sort of ENSO neutral territory.
Nevertheless the -ve sst anomaly along the equator in the Eastern Pacific is impressive.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #490 on: September 21, 2017, 03:47:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #491 on: September 22, 2017, 03:31:49 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #492 on: September 23, 2017, 03:26:53 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +3.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #493 on: September 24, 2017, 03:32:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +3.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #494 on: September 25, 2017, 03:26:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #495 on: September 25, 2017, 03:48:40 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data and the two attached NOAA images issued today showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; the ENSO condition remains on the cool side of neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #496 on: September 25, 2017, 04:08:20 PM »
The two attached images of weekly plots by the BoM show the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively, through the week ending Sept 24 2017.  They indicate that ENSO conditions are on the cool side of neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #497 on: September 25, 2017, 04:10:28 PM »
The four attached weekly plots were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending Sept 24 2017.  Collectively, they indicates that ENSO conditions are on the cool side of neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #498 on: September 26, 2017, 03:29:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #499 on: September 27, 2017, 03:46:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson