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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #500 on: September 28, 2017, 03:26:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #501 on: September 29, 2017, 03:32:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #502 on: September 30, 2017, 03:26:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #503 on: October 01, 2017, 03:26:39 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #504 on: October 02, 2017, 03:27:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #505 on: October 02, 2017, 05:08:09 PM »
Per the following/attached NOAA weekly Nino data and first two plots, and the last two BoM plots (all issued today), the ENSO condition remains neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #506 on: October 02, 2017, 05:13:35 PM »
The four weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Oct 1 2017.  They all indicate continuing neutral ENSO conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #507 on: October 03, 2017, 03:32:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +6.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #508 on: October 04, 2017, 04:42:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has jumped up to +7.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #509 on: October 05, 2017, 03:30:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #510 on: October 06, 2017, 03:28:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #511 on: October 06, 2017, 08:56:08 PM »
FYI, NOAA has updated their ONI-data for the period 1950-2017 with ERSSTv5 and some obvious things stands out in this update.

1) The "Godzilla El Niño" bck in 2015-2016 was even stronger than first believed and the ONI-value for NDJ (Nov/Dec/Jan) was raised to +2,6 which is the largest ONI-value for this period. On a second place we find OND and NDJ in the El Niño 1997-1998 at +2,4.

2) The very strong El Niño in 1982-1983 was actually followed by a back to back La Niña in 1983-1984 and 1984-1985. The first period is somewhat surprising given that it was labelled as a neutral period in ERSSTv4.

3) The very weak La Niña back in 1967-1968 is removed and now classified as a neutral period.

4) The strong El Niño back in 1965-1966 is now classified as a "Super El Niño" with an ONI peaking at +2,0.

Compare the two sets of data: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php (v5) and http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v4.shtml (v4)

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #512 on: October 07, 2017, 03:29:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +7.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Alexander555

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #513 on: October 07, 2017, 02:23:45 PM »
A positive SOI means La Niña is on her way. Is that correct ?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #514 on: October 07, 2017, 03:12:39 PM »
A positive SOI means La Niña is on her way. Is that correct ?
It ain't necessarily so. Climate change may have already disrupted the ENSO cycle, the boffins tell us.
Some even predict a return of an El Nino in 2018.

People like me can merely watch and observe the slow motion train wreck of the climate that for a few thousand years was kind to us.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #515 on: October 07, 2017, 05:29:41 PM »
A positive SOI means La Niña is on her way. Is that correct ?

Sustained (more than a month) SOI values more positive than +8 imply possible La Nina conditions.  Sustained values between +8 and -8 imply possible ENSO neutral conditions. While sustained values more negative than -8 imply possible El Nino conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Alexander555

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #516 on: October 07, 2017, 05:56:20 PM »
ok, thanks. So if the oceans continue to get warmer. We could be in for some surprises. Or would the differance between the two, which probably will stay the same. The colders flows get a little warmer and the warmer flows get a little warmer. Will that impact air pressure ?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #517 on: October 07, 2017, 06:08:41 PM »
Or would the differance between the two, which probably will stay the same..
Perhaps not. From what I have read temperature increases in the oceans through increased heat retention vary both in lat/long and depth.  Way back in 1990 a deep sea sailor (i.e. dependent on wind) told me that the ocean and air currents were not according to the charts reflecting effects of changes in heat and cold in the oceans
Surprises seem more likely in continuous rapid climate change even with a few super-computers to make sense of it all.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #518 on: October 08, 2017, 03:30:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #519 on: October 09, 2017, 03:45:53 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +8.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #520 on: October 09, 2017, 03:03:55 PM »
I am short on time so I will just say that this information supports the idea that we are still in ENSO neutral conditions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #521 on: October 09, 2017, 03:05:21 PM »
The attached four BoM weekly Nino indices indicate that we are in neutral ENSO conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #522 on: October 10, 2017, 05:52:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly up to +9.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #523 on: October 10, 2017, 04:21:13 PM »
That's an understatement!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #524 on: October 10, 2017, 07:55:13 PM »
Yes, we are in the neutral range - for now! The latest forecast from BoM hints that the stalling trades will return soon and cool the Pacific to La Niña. SOI from Longpaddock is now in La Niña teritory.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #525 on: October 11, 2017, 03:33:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #526 on: October 12, 2017, 03:50:01 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #527 on: October 13, 2017, 03:34:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #528 on: October 14, 2017, 03:31:27 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #529 on: October 15, 2017, 03:28:04 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +8.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #530 on: October 15, 2017, 05:16:36 PM »
A deep dive into what the current ENSO portends, by New York Metro Weather.

La Nina is in the Atmosphere, but Changes are Possible
Quote
After some big warmth, we finally saw some Autumn chill arrive over the past couple of days, which signifies the change of seasons. We are now approaching crunch time when it comes to compiling a winter forecast. In our Winter Forecast Webinar, one of the main topics discussed was the evolution of the La Nina and the effects it is already having on the atmospheric pattern. With La Nina conditions already having been established with regards to feedback in the atmospheric circulation, and the fact that ENSO events tend to peak in November, it would seem to be a given that La Nina would be at least somewhat or even perhaps a major driver this coming winter. And to some extent, we believe that is true. However, there is conflicting evidence regarding the future of the La Nina, and part of this will be evidenced by a pattern change to a +PNA and a trough in the East later this month. These factors will be discussed in detail in this article. ...
https://www.nymetroweather.com/2017/10/14/la-nina-atmosphere-changes-possible/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #531 on: October 15, 2017, 08:54:03 PM »
Per the linked article the OCO-2 satellite has confirmed that the ocean acts as a significant source of temporarily increased CO2 emissions into the atmosphere during El Nino events:

Title: "NASA Satellite Reveals Source of El Niño–Fueled Carbon Dioxide Spike"

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nasa-satellite-reveals-source-of-el-nino-fueled-carbon-dioxide-spike/

Extract: "The ocean signal "was really a big surprise to us," said Abhishek Chatterjee, a scientist with University Space Research Association working at NASA's Goddard Spaceflight Center. The response had been inferred before, "but it was never observed to the degree that we could" with OCO-2, he said."

See also:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6360/186

Extract: "In this issue, a collection of Research Articles presents the initial results from OCO-2, covering the detection of CO2 emissions from specific point sources; measurements of CO2 variations associated with El Niño, on land and at sea; and solar-induced fluorescence measurements of photosynthesis for determining gross primary production by plants. With its impressive collection of observational capabilities, OCO-2 will enable measurements of atmospheric CO2 to be made with sufficient precision, resolution, and coverage to faithfully characterize its sources and sinks globally over the seasonal cycle, a long-standing goal in atmospheric and climate science."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #532 on: October 16, 2017, 03:29:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #533 on: October 16, 2017, 05:28:25 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data, the first two NOAA images of the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM images showing the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, for the week ending Oct 15 2017; the ENSO has fluctuated to the cold bound of remaining neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #534 on: October 16, 2017, 05:31:23 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing the weekly Nino index data thru the week ending Oct 15 2017.  They show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and collectively they indicate that the ENSO conditions are currently on the cold side of neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #535 on: October 17, 2017, 03:28:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #536 on: October 18, 2017, 03:40:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +9.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #537 on: October 19, 2017, 03:32:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +11.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #538 on: October 20, 2017, 03:27:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #539 on: October 20, 2017, 03:54:08 AM »
The linked article indicates that there is likely a link between Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and the ENSO cycle:

Fei Xie, Jiankai Zhang, Wenjun Sang, Yang Li, Yulei Qi, Cheng Sun, Yang Li & Jianchuan Shu (17 October 2017), "Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall", Atmospheric Science Letters, DOI: 10.1002/asl.783

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.783/abstract?utm_content=buffer54291&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The tropical precipitation has a wide effect on the tropical economics and social life. Many studies made efforts to improve the tropical precipitation forecast using tropical climate factors. This study, based on observations, found that Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) could exert a significant effect on the tropical precipitation, i.e. there is more (less) rainfall over the eastern Pacific and less (more) precipitation over the western Pacific when the ASO anomalies are lower (larger) than normal. It is because a decrease (increase) in ASO could affect El Niño (La Niña) events and lead to a weakened (enhanced) Walker circulation. Time-slice experiments confirmed that the ASO anomalies can force El Niño–Southern Oscillation-like anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature and subsequent tropical precipitation anomalies. In addition, the ASO variations could also change the occurrence probability of extreme precipitation in the tropics. During the anomalously low (high) ASO events, there are more occurrences of heavier precipitation over the eastern Pacific (western Pacific) and of lighter precipitation over the western Pacific (eastern Pacific). Furthermore, the ASO variations lead tropical rainfall by approximately 21 months, suggesting that the ASO can serve as a potentially effective predictor of tropical rainfall."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #540 on: October 21, 2017, 03:28:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #541 on: October 22, 2017, 03:27:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #542 on: October 23, 2017, 03:49:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #543 on: October 23, 2017, 05:30:20 PM »
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data, and the first two attached BoM weekly index values for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively, and the last two NOAA Eq Pac plots for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; it is reasonable to conclude that on a weekly basis we are now in week La Nina-like ENSO condition; however, we will not know if an official La Nina is declared this season for many months to come:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #544 on: October 23, 2017, 05:32:32 PM »
The four attached weekly BoM plots of the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; collectively indicate that on a weekly (not seasonal) basis we are in La Nina-like ENSO conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #545 on: October 24, 2017, 03:29:04 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #546 on: October 25, 2017, 03:27:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #547 on: October 26, 2017, 03:36:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +12.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #548 on: October 27, 2017, 03:31:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +11.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #549 on: October 28, 2017, 04:18:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +10.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson