2017 ENSO

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +10.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data (thru the week centered on Oct 25 2017), the first to images issued by NOAA for the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SST Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued today by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, thru the week ending Oct 29 2017; the ENSO has drifted towards more neutral-like, but still relatively cool, conditions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM with weekly Nino data thru the week ending Oct 29 2017.  The images show the Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4 indices, respectively, and while all of the indices are warmer than last week, they all indicate relatively cool ENSO conditions:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +9.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +9.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +8.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +7.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +7.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +7.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +7.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +7.4.  Furthermore, the NOAA weekly Nino 3.4 index for the week centered on Nov 1, 2017 was -0.4 as was the three month ONI value for ASO.

[AbruptSLR]

The two attached weekly index plots thru the week ending Nov 5 2017 were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively.  They indicate cool ENSO conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino indices plots thru the week ending Nov 5 2017 were issued today by the BoM and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They all indicate coolish ENSO conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

As my normal routine was disrupted yesterday, today I provide the following week NOAA Nino data thru the week centered on Nov 1 2017, and the two attached NOAA plots for the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  This information indicates a warming fluctuation (or possible trend) in the Western Tropical Pacific, while the Eastern Tropical Pacific is still cooling:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +7.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +7.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +7.4:

[Lord M Vader]

La Niña is now officially declared!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2017-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-she%E2%80%99s-back

Not very surprising tough, strong or very strong El Niños tend to be followed by a "double up" La Niña. Only case is the 1965/1966 El Niño that was followed by cool neutral conditions before a "double up" El Niño emerged in 1968-1970.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.8:

[wili]

Thanks for the info. But note that La Nina ain't what it used to be:

http://grist.org/briefly/la-nina-is-here-so-2017-wont-be-the-warmest-year-on-record/

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/La-Nina-Winter-Temperature-Pattern-Comparison.png

[Lord M Vader]

As La Niña now is declared, it is intersting to read this article:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074904/full

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.8:

[Sigmetnow]

La Niña is here, so 2017 won’t be the warmest year on record.

The cool phase of the planet’s most important weather pattern began during October, say scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with a tell-tale cooling of the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Without the El Niño/La Niña cycle, 2017 likely would have been the warmest year ever measured. With it, 2017 will probably fall all the way to … second place, a close runner up to 2016, which was was superheated by a record-strength El Niño.

Every two to four years, global temperatures typically dip as La Niña takes hold. This time around, recent overall planetary warming has become so strong that human influence now seems to be blunting La Niña’s effect on global temperatures.

Over the past 67 years since NOAA has been tracking La Niñas, their effect has waned noticeably. But with cooling expected to linger into 2018, global temperatures will remain high but probably not record-breaking.

While thermometers might not be bursting, this year’s La Niña should be strong enough to alter weather patterns worldwide, boosting the chances of drought in California and the southeast U.S., heavy snows in the Pacific Northwest, torrential rains in Indonesia, and hurricanes in the Caribbean.

http://grist.org/briefly/la-nina-is-here-so-2017-wont-be-the-warmest-year-on-record/

[AbruptSLR]

La Niña is now officially declared!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2017-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-she%E2%80%99s-back

Not very surprising tough, strong or very strong El Niños tend to be followed by a "double up" La Niña. Only case is the 1965/1966 El Niño that was followed by cool neutral conditions before a "double up" El Niño emerged in 1968-1970.

While this information is valuable, particularly for projecting the coming of NOAA's atmospheric dominating 'warm Arctic cold continent' paradigm; there are other more oceanic dominated measures of La Nina where we may not meet the minimum criteria to declare a La Nina this 2017-2018 season.  For example, the first image shows the three month moving average ONI record where five consecutive 3-month periods are  required to call a La Nina event (as opposed to atmospheric La Nina conditions), but as of ASO we have not crossed the -0.5C threshold.  Also, the second image shows the POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting Nov 5 2017, and as the BoM sets a threshold for La Nina conditions at a Nino 3.4 of -0.8C, this forecast indicates that we may not even cross that oceanic threshold this season.

[AbruptSLR]

La Niña is here, so 2017 won’t be the warmest year on record.

Per the attached table NASA gives  2017 a 81% chance, and Berkeley Earth gives 2017 a 85% chance, of being the second warmest year on record.  Frequently, following a Super El Nino event the subsequent La Nina event would be significantly stronger than we are seeing:

Title: "State of the climate: 2017 shaping up to be warmest ‘non-El Niño’ year"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2017-shaping-up-to-be-warmest-non-el-nino-year

To me this is a clear indication of global warming, given the fact that moderate La Nina atmospheric conditions contribute to the 'warm Arctic, cold continent' effect which contributes to Arctic Amplification (which contributes to ECS).

Edit: For those who prefer graphs to tables, I provide the second attached image from Gavin who uses 12-month moving average GISS LOTI data to project the 2017 GMSTA value.  This image clearly shows that the La Nina following the 1997-98 Super El Nino was much stronger than what we are currently experiencing.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino indices data thru the week centered on Nov 8 2017, and the two attached NOAA plots issued today for the Eq Pac, showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution.  The ENSO is currently in a La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3

Edit: The last two attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Nov 12 2017, & show the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively, and they are all cooler than last week:

[Tor Bejnar]

Monthly:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.7:

[bligh8]

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074904/abstract

A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Niña in 2017-18†

Abstract

Historical observations show that one in two La Niña events last for two consecutive years. Despite their outsized impacts on drought, these 2-year La Niña are not predicted on a routine basis. Here, we assess the predictability of 2-year La Niña using retrospective forecasts performed with a climate model that simulates realistic multi-year events, as well as with an empirical model based on observed predictors. The skill of the retrospective forecasts allows us to make predictions for the upcoming 2017-2018 boreal winter starting from conditions in November 2015. These two-year forecasts indicate that the return of La Niña is more likely than not, with a 60% probability based on the climate model and an 80% probability based on the empirical model; the likelihood of El Niño is less than 8% in both cases. These results demonstrate the feasibility of predictions of the duration of La Niña.

Of course the paper is paywalled, however in the associated “See Also” links they express
"Despite being weaker in the second year, La Niña appears to have a greater impact."

“The first study, led by Okumura, showed that La Niña's impact on atmospheric circulation and southern U.S. drought becomes stronger in the second year. This is despite a weakening of La Niña's cooling over the tropical Pacific relative to the first year.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171116114206.htm

[gerontocrat]

Of course the paper is paywalled, however in the associated “See Also” links they express
"Despite being weaker in the second year, La Niña appears to have a greater impact."

“The first study, led by Okumura, showed that La Niña's impact on atmospheric circulation and southern U.S. drought becomes stronger in the second year. This is despite a weakening of La Niña's cooling over the tropical Pacific relative to the first year.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171116114206.htm

Anything on La Nina impacts on the Arctic and / or Greenland, especially precipitation ? (Since La Nina has kicked in precipitation on Greenland has dropped, and will remain so for at least several days.)

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following week Nino index values issued by NOAA thru the week centered on Nov 15 2017, and the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two images issued by the BoM showing weekly index values thru the week ending Nov 19 2017 for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively; ENSO conditions remain in a weak La Nina condition (but not in an official La Nina event):

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached Nino weekly index plots with data thru the week ending Nov 19 2017 were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and all indicate a slight fluctuation towards warmer conditions, but all also indicate continuing weak La Nina conditions:

[wili]

(It's not clear to me why this thread is in the 'Consequences' section, but, oh well.)

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/11/20/the-equatorial-pacific-is-going-through-its-variable-cool-phase-but-2017-is-94-percent-likely-to-be-the-second-hottest-year-ever-recorded/#comment-130368

The Equatorial Pacific is Going Through its Variable Cool Phase, But 2017 is 94 Percent Likely to be the Second Hottest Year Ever Recorded

Most relevant section for this forum:

Over the past two years, La Ninas (cooling Pacific) appear to have been at least partly off-set by very strong warming in the Arctic and Antarctic. Atmospheric circulation tends to transport more heat into the polar zones as the Pacific cools. This is due to the fact that temperature differential between Equator and poles during La Nina is less and the lower temperature differential causes the upper level winds to slow and meander. Coupled with polar amplification due to human-caused climate change, the result can be some pretty extreme temperature departures. This week is no exception as Arctic temperatures by Thursday through Saturday are expected to be between 4 and 5 degrees Celsius above average for the entire region above the 66 North parallel.

[AbruptSLR]

(It's not clear to me why this thread is in the 'Consequences' section, but, oh well.)

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/11/20/the-equatorial-pacific-is-going-through-its-variable-cool-phase-but-2017-is-94-percent-likely-to-be-the-second-hottest-year-ever-recorded/#comment-130368

The Equatorial Pacific is Going Through its Variable Cool Phase, But 2017 is 94 Percent Likely to be the Second Hottest Year Ever Recorded

Most relevant section for this forum:

Over the past two years, La Ninas (cooling Pacific) appear to have been at least partly off-set by very strong warming in the Arctic and Antarctic. Atmospheric circulation tends to transport more heat into the polar zones as the Pacific cools. This is due to the fact that temperature differential between Equator and poles during La Nina is less and the lower temperature differential causes the upper level winds to slow and meander. Coupled with polar amplification due to human-caused climate change, the result can be some pretty extreme temperature departures. This week is no exception as Arctic temperatures by Thursday through Saturday are expected to be between 4 and 5 degrees Celsius above average for the entire region above the 66 North parallel.

Per the first attached image La Nina condition particularly telecommunicate atmospheric warmth from the Tropical Pacific to the poles during periods of positive AAO/SAM, which the second image indicates that we are moving into.

[wili]

Thanks, aslr

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.1: