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Lowest yearly rise of CO2 in the Mauna Loa observatory monthly record in year 2017 :

<0 ppm (to cover all bases)
0 (0%)
+0-0.75 ppm (speedy worldwide trumpian economic meltdown + very positive natural factors)
0 (0%)
+0.75-1.25 ppm (first realistic one imho)
2 (4.4%)
+1.25-1.67 ppm (setting the true poll boxes to 0.33333333ppm)
5 (11.1%)
+1.67-2.00 ppm
4 (8.9%)
+2.00-2.33 ppm
7 (15.6%)
+2.33-2.67 ppm
10 (22.2%)
+2.67-3.00 ppm
7 (15.6%)
+3.00-3.33 ppm
3 (6.7%)
+3.33-3.67 ppm
1 (2.2%)
>3.67 ppm (current value)
6 (13.3%)

Total Members Voted: 45

Voting closed: April 13, 2017, 06:07:11 AM

Author Topic: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2  (Read 19071 times)

crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #50 on: March 15, 2017, 03:04:38 PM »

When I look at this chart and see the trends, particularly the amazing spikes that occur during El Ninos followed by dramatic pull backs, I have to wonder if we are underestimating the ability of the planet to heal itself through natural processes. Could a planet wide effort by humans to green the planet along with a cessation of CO2 emissions put us on path to stable atmospheric CO2 levels and set the stage for reductions sooner then we currently think possible?

I'm grasping for straws here.  :-[

We don't seems very good at reforestation. :-[

Other possible straws include:

Perhaps covering deserts with solar panels might stop plants wilting in the heat allow roots to grow and reduce soil erosion.

Less Arctic ice means lots more heat loss from planet during Arctic winter?

Other ideas welcome but perhaps better futures thread would be a better place?

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #51 on: March 17, 2017, 08:26:16 PM »
2016 data, but still....

"China CO2 emissions from fossil fuels down 1%, US down 3%  & EU flat says @IEA - global emissions flat for 3rd yr in a row"
https://twitter.com/jschmidtnrdc/status/842779914298449920

"This matters. But this is like smoker holding steady at 3 packs a day—emissions are still accumulating in the atmosphere at record rates."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/842781585334190081

Carbon Dioxide Is Rising at Record Rates
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record-rates-21242
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

ritter

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #52 on: March 17, 2017, 10:12:06 PM »
2016 data, but still....

"China CO2 emissions from fossil fuels down 1%, US down 3%  & EU flat says @IEA - global emissions flat for 3rd yr in a row"
https://twitter.com/jschmidtnrdc/status/842779914298449920

"This matters. But this is like smoker holding steady at 3 packs a day—emissions are still accumulating in the atmosphere at record rates."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/842781585334190081

Carbon Dioxide Is Rising at Record Rates
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record-rates-21242


So, CO2 rising at record rates while major economies are reducing rates. Attributable to feedbacks?

oren

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #53 on: March 17, 2017, 10:50:29 PM »
2016 data, but still....

"China CO2 emissions from fossil fuels down 1%, US down 3%  & EU flat says @IEA - global emissions flat for 3rd yr in a row"
https://twitter.com/jschmidtnrdc/status/842779914298449920

"This matters. But this is like smoker holding steady at 3 packs a day—emissions are still accumulating in the atmosphere at record rates."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/842781585334190081

Carbon Dioxide Is Rising at Record Rates
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record-rates-21242


So, CO2 rising at record rates while major economies are reducing rates. Attributable to feedbacks?

Feedbacks most likely, but it could also be nations lying about their statistics.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #54 on: March 21, 2017, 06:00:16 AM »
Last Week, March 12 - 18, 2017,
407.06 ppm
(+2.37 ppm from)
1 Year Ago, March 12 - 18, 2016
404.69 ppm
(2017 is +22.67 ppm from)
10 Years Ago, March 12 - 18, 2005

(sarc) "HAH! they continue to use 2005 not 2007! This proves the hoax! Scientists are not allowed to make typos in automatically generated texts so this action was planned in 1882, now if we could only find the 8remnants of the eruption machine at Capt. Nemo's place in Indonesia" (/sarc)

384.39 ppm

« Last Edit: March 21, 2017, 06:43:17 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #55 on: March 22, 2017, 12:48:54 AM »
On an hourly basis, CO2 reached 410 ppm over the weekend—likely for the first time in human history.

https://twitter.com/co2_earth/status/844183597678383107
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Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #56 on: March 22, 2017, 12:51:07 AM »
"current CO2 about 3 months ahead of last year. Another way of describing the constant increase I suppose"
https://twitter.com/rms5539/status/844226907088601088
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #57 on: March 29, 2017, 11:38:55 AM »
Weekly CO2 Mauna Loa Observatory | NOAA-ESRL
Period Week Atmospheric CO2
Last Week March 12 - 18, 2017 407.06 ppm
1 Year Ago March 12 - 18, 2016 404.69 ppm
10 Years Ago March 12 - 18, 2005 384.39 ppm

There it still is. 5 -> 7. Now I did check the number from the primary source and it is for the 2007. It does not look good to have the coding error remaining on the site. https://www.co2.earth Hello.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #58 on: March 29, 2017, 12:09:51 PM »
Weekly CO2 Mauna Loa Observatory | NOAA-ESRL
Period Week Atmospheric CO2
Last Week March 12 - 18, 2017 407.06 ppm
1 Year Ago March 12 - 18, 2016 404.69 ppm
10 Years Ago March 12 - 18, 2005 384.39 ppm

There it still is. 5 -> 7. Now I did check the number from the primary source and it is for the 2007. It does not look good to have the coding error remaining on the site. https://www.co2.earth Hello.

Relevant page is
https://www.co2.earth/weekly-co2
and their contact email is
stabilization at co2.earth
have you emailed them?

Meanwhile https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html is more up to date
Week beginning on March 19, 2017:     406.77 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     405.37 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     385.28 ppm
Just 1.4 up and March might end up just up 2?
« Last Edit: March 29, 2017, 02:12:59 PM by crandles »

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #59 on: March 29, 2017, 01:56:37 PM »
Yep. Email has been sent. You may try yourself too. I just like that site. Thanks for the other link. World needs to watch this.
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #60 on: April 02, 2017, 12:17:12 AM »
CO2 had a little jump upwards this week
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #61 on: April 02, 2017, 03:19:17 PM »
CO2 had a little jump upwards this week

Yes quite a jump.

April 1 at 408.48 hasn't come down much.

Estimate 407.02 for March from 404.83 so looks to be up around 2.19ppm

April 2016 was 407.42

So even with that jump up and not coming down much so far, April 1 408.48 is barely more than just 1 up on April 2016.

Perhaps worth waiting for first ~10 days of April data before making or changing your vote?

DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #62 on: April 02, 2017, 03:59:05 PM »
CO2 had a little jump upwards this week

Yes quite a jump.

April 1 at 408.48 hasn't come down much.

Estimate 407.02 for March from 404.83 so looks to be up around 2.19ppm

April 2016 was 407.42

So even with that jump up and not coming down much so far, April 1 408.48 is barely more than just 1 up on April 2016.

Perhaps worth waiting for first ~10 days of April data before making or changing your vote?

My vote has been cast a while ago...No yty jumps less than 1.67ppm
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #63 on: April 11, 2017, 02:40:44 PM »
Vote closing soon.

Week beginning on April 2, 2017:     407.60 ppm
April last year 407.42

Expect it be larger than that 0.18 difference?

James C.

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #64 on: April 16, 2017, 04:00:22 PM »
The new weekly numbers for Mauna Loa just came out from NOAA, showing almost the same level as one year ago. Does anyone have any theories as to why the CO2 growth has been so slow this year? Surely it should still be tracking upwards by at least 2ppm, even after el nino and the last two years of 3ppm. Anomalous winds at Mauna Loa? Natural variability?

Week beginning on April 9, 2017:      408.85 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:      408.81 ppm


pikaia

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #65 on: April 16, 2017, 04:24:42 PM »
The corresponding week last year had a very large spike, and had the highest weekly average of the year. The following week was much lower, so I expect normal service will be resumed next week.

Csnavywx

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #66 on: April 17, 2017, 01:23:53 AM »
The new weekly numbers for Mauna Loa just came out from NOAA, showing almost the same level as one year ago. Does anyone have any theories as to why the CO2 growth has been so slow this year? Surely it should still be tracking upwards by at least 2ppm, even after el nino and the last two years of 3ppm. Anomalous winds at Mauna Loa? Natural variability?

Week beginning on April 9, 2017:      408.85 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:      408.81 ppm

For the same reason we've had weeks in the past year with a differential of +5 ppm -- week to week variability can be considerable, especially this time of year. Wait a week.

James C.

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #67 on: April 17, 2017, 01:42:05 AM »
Thanks for your replies pikaia and csnavywx. So it's probably just natural variation and not indicative of anything.

crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #68 on: April 17, 2017, 03:18:20 PM »
I think there is an EL Nino effect see this previous post below. 1998 El Nino stayed strong about a month longer than in 2016 so the reversal of the effect could well start soon.

I think there should actually be more buckets at the lower end.
The recent high values are partly due to El Nino and we can expect some lower rises with a return to more neutral ENSO. At least that is what happened in 1998-99:

     1998  1999  2016
Jan +2.17 +2.92 +2.54
Feb +1.95 +3.09 +3.76
Mar +2.73 +2.44 +3.29
Apr +2.31 +2.33 +4.14
May +2.87 +1.54 +3.74
Jun +3.40 +1.31 +4.01
Jul +3.51 +1.63 +3.08
Aug +3.70 +0.95 +3.32
Sep +3.73 +0.79 +3.40
Oct +3.58 +0.97 +3.28
Nov +3.03 +1.20 +3.37
Dec +2.75 +0.97 +2.63


Edit
he says, and then notes the latest data at 409.52 still seems pretty high compared with April 16 at 407.48

jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #69 on: April 17, 2017, 05:24:53 PM »
carbon cycle feedbacks
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #70 on: April 17, 2017, 06:46:17 PM »
The new weekly numbers for Mauna Loa just came out from NOAA, showing almost the same level as one year ago. Does anyone have any theories as to why the CO2 growth has been so slow this year? Surely it should still be tracking upwards by at least 2ppm, even after el nino and the last two years of 3ppm. Anomalous winds at Mauna Loa? Natural variability?

Week beginning on April 9, 2017:      408.85 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:      408.81 ppm

For the same reason we've had weeks in the past year with a differential of +5 ppm -- week to week variability can be considerable, especially this time of year. Wait a week.

High variability...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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shmengie

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #71 on: April 19, 2017, 05:22:44 AM »
Plants will not heal the higher CO2 level. Never. But there will be life that loves the state we will get in.

Plants & other photosynthesizing organisms have converted an (the old) CO₂ rich atmosphere into an O₂ rich atmosphere.

At present human activity CO₂ production out paces those kingdoms ability to sequester it.  The flavor of human CO₂ production may not be suitably enticing for current existing photosynthesis creatures.  That may change, who knows...  Evolution is a marvelous happenstance.

--

Straying from that topic...  Does anyone know if increased atmospheric CO₂ causes plants to pollenate more, more than a leaner CO₂ atmosphere?  Seems to me, the more CO₂ in the air, the more pollen plants produce.
Professor Trump, who'd thought it was that complicated?

silkman

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #72 on: April 20, 2017, 08:46:10 AM »
Up, up and away!

The Keeling curve breaches 410ppm.

silkman

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #73 on: April 20, 2017, 08:58:13 AM »
Having now checked back in earlier Mauna Loa threads the 400ppm theshhold was passed on May 10th 2013, less than four years ago. I find that very frightening:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/may/10/carbon-dioxide-highest-level-greenhouse-gas

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #74 on: April 20, 2017, 12:17:49 PM »
Having now checked back in earlier Mauna Loa threads the 400ppm theshhold was passed on May 10th 2013, less than four years ago. I find that very frightening:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/may/10/carbon-dioxide-highest-level-greenhouse-gas

The following is a repost from the Human Stupidity thread:

The linked article is entitled: "SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills", and it (& the associated image) indicate that anthropogenic radiative forcing from CO2 is occurring at a higher rate of change than the natural systems can adapt to; and as man is dependent on these natural systems, we are not behaving stupidly:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/SkS_Analogy_01_Speed_Kills.html

Extract: "It is not only the CO2 concentration that is important, but the annual rate of increase of CO2 concentration, because the rate of increase determines the rate at which natural systems must adapt … or go extinct."
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #75 on: April 20, 2017, 06:45:10 PM »
I have looked and failed to find any easily digestible info on the current and future ability of the biosphere to absorb CO2. If the carbon sinks are becoming less effective then presumably part or all of reductions in CO2 emissions would have no effect on reducing and reversing inceases in CO2 ppm.

Anybody got any url links for a moderately intelligent non-scientist ?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #76 on: April 20, 2017, 07:03:16 PM »
I have looked and failed to find any easily digestible info on the current and future ability of the biosphere to absorb CO2. If the carbon sinks are becoming less effective then presumably part or all of reductions in CO2 emissions would have no effect on reducing and reversing inceases in CO2 ppm.

Anybody got any url links for a moderately intelligent non-scientist ?


You are asking a very complex question to which there is no simple answer.  Nevertheless, I provide the following two linked articles, with the first discussing efforts to better understand the ocean-carbon sink; and the second discussing how forests temporarily contributed to the illusion of the faux warming hiatus.

The first linked article is entitled: "New climate model better predicts changes to ocean-carbon sink"


http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013

The second linked article is entitled: "Forests 'held their breath' during global warming hiatus, research shows".

https://phys.org/news/2017-01-forests-held-global-hiatus.html

Extract: "The study shows that, during extended period of slower warming, worldwide forests 'breathe in' carbon dioxide through photosynthesis, but reduced the rate at which they 'breathe out'—or release the gas back to the atmosphere."

Edit: gerontocrat, to get a better feel for a more complete response to your question, look at the "Carbon Cycle" thread in the Science folder:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,77.350.html
« Last Edit: April 20, 2017, 07:11:18 PM by AbruptSLR »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #77 on: April 20, 2017, 08:38:38 PM »
Merci beaucoup, M'sieur AbruptSLR.  How depressed will I get on reading these links?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

AndrewB

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #78 on: April 20, 2017, 09:37:16 PM »
...

Straying from that topic...  Does anyone know if increased atmospheric CO₂ causes plants to pollenate more, more than a leaner CO₂ atmosphere?  Seems to me, the more CO₂ in the air, the more pollen plants produce.

I have read somewhere (sorry, but I don't have the reference at hand right now) that higher temperatures induced by higher CO2 concentrations actually lead to much reduced pollen production. In other words, higher CO2 concentrations reduce the fertility of plants, on average. This, apart from many other issues caused by higher temperatures (pests, forest fires, altered hydrological cycles, etc).

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #79 on: April 20, 2017, 11:54:22 PM »
Merci beaucoup, M'sieur AbruptSLR.  How depressed will I get on reading these links?

The truth will set you free ;).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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wili

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #80 on: April 21, 2017, 02:54:19 PM »
ASLR, I think this is what you intended for your first link:

http://news.wisc.edu/new-climate-model-better-predicts-changes-to-ocean-carbon-sink/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #81 on: April 21, 2017, 03:46:59 PM »
ASLR, I think this is what you intended for your first link:

http://news.wisc.edu/new-climate-model-better-predicts-changes-to-ocean-carbon-sink/


wili,

Thanks for the catch.

Best,
ASLR
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #82 on: April 24, 2017, 06:07:48 AM »
Some recent numbers without any explanation (the weekly file actually looks like this).
407.48 ppm and
387.49 ppm would be my guesses for the values 1 and 10 years ago unless the site fumbles with the dates as well.
 
 2017   3   5  2017.1740    406.10  2           403.75    383.47    124.86
  2017   3  12  2017.1932    407.06  5           404.69    384.39    125.58
  2017   3  19  2017.2123    406.77  6           405.37    385.28    125.00
  2017   3  26  2017.2315    408.37  7           405.56    385.88    126.29
  2017   4   2  2017.2507    407.60  6           406.19    385.82    125.19
  2017   4   9  2017.2699    408.85  5           408.81    385.82    126.12
  2017   4  16  2017.2890    409.61  6           407.48    387.49    126.59
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MrVisible

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #83 on: April 27, 2017, 04:46:02 PM »
Did we really just hit 412 ppm as a daily average? In April?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #84 on: April 27, 2017, 05:41:54 PM »
Did we really just hit 412 ppm as a daily average? In April?


Nope - there have been a couple of days, not a complete month with over 410 ppm at Mauna Loa. But quite likely in June.

For a background goto:-   https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/.

And for a long discussion goto:- https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2, which has that figure of 412.63 for the 25 April. If that is maintained in the future we are totally in the poo NOW

robertscribbler.com by coincidence has as its latest offering a very good article on where we are going on CO2 and the other greenhouse gases (e.g. methane). We are at 493 ppm CO2 equivalent (including these other gases), by 2020 we will have crossed the 500 ppm mark, above "the maximum Miocene boundary level of 500 parts per million — a total amount of heat forcing that likely hasn’t been seen in 20-30 million years."

Global temperatures and sea levels were quite a bit higher then. A very sobering article - the future is closer than one hoped.


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DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #85 on: April 27, 2017, 09:52:08 PM »
Did we really just hit 412 ppm as a daily average? In April?


Yes!!!!   :o :o :o 412.63

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #86 on: May 01, 2017, 05:39:54 PM »
April 30:     409.98 ppm
April 29:     409.46 ppm
April 28:     409.48 ppm
April 27:     408.64 ppm
April 26:     412.63 ppm

412.63 still there for 26th.

I estimate 409.02 for April 2017, from 407.42 so up 1.6, but I could be miles out again.


DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #87 on: May 01, 2017, 09:20:53 PM »
April 30:     409.98 ppm
April 29:     409.46 ppm
April 28:     409.48 ppm
April 27:     408.64 ppm
April 26:     412.63 ppm

412.63 still there for 26th.

I estimate 409.02 for April 2017, from 407.42 so up 1.6, but I could be miles out again.

You are probably right. March 2017 average was about 0.18 ppm higher compared to weekly average average. Right now April weekly average average is almost 409 ppm.
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #88 on: May 05, 2017, 07:02:02 PM »
April 30:     409.98 ppm
April 29:     409.46 ppm
April 28:     409.48 ppm
April 27:     408.64 ppm
April 26:     412.63 ppm

412.63 still there for 26th.

I estimate 409.02 for April 2017, from 407.42 so up 1.6, but I could be miles out again.

Numbers are in . 409.01 for April 2017 ( excellent estimate crandles ) and 1.59 ppm up.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #89 on: May 05, 2017, 07:35:28 PM »
...
Numbers are in . 409.01 for April 2017 ( excellent estimate crandles ) and 1.59 ppm up.
Does this mean only those who voted for one of the two lowest value bins [for which there are votes] remain in the running for bragging rights?
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #90 on: May 05, 2017, 08:04:37 PM »
Does this mean only those who voted for one of the two lowest value bins [for which there are votes] remain in the running for bragging rights?
I believe so. Given voting closed less than a month ago, that isn't very good. I am one of two who went for lowest bin with votes. May 99 was lower than April 99 and if that happens maybe we will be close or under a rise of 1.25. No guarantee there will be such a month with under 1.25 rise but perhaps looking reasonably good for that and my guess.

But Yuha had it sussed long ago

I think there should actually be more buckets at the lower end.
The recent high values are partly due to El Nino and we can expect some lower rises with a return to more neutral ENSO. At least that is what happened in 1998-99:

     1998  1999  2016
Jan +2.17 +2.92 +2.54
Feb +1.95 +3.09 +3.76
Mar +2.73 +2.44 +3.29
Apr +2.31 +2.33 +4.14
May +2.87 +1.54 +3.74
Jun +3.40 +1.31 +4.01
Jul +3.51 +1.63 +3.08
Aug +3.70 +0.95 +3.32
Sep +3.73 +0.79 +3.40
Oct +3.58 +0.97 +3.28
Nov +3.03 +1.20 +3.37
Dec +2.75 +0.97 +2.63


So maybe by September there will be a month with rise below 0.75 and everyone will be wrong.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #91 on: May 06, 2017, 04:29:19 AM »
Does this mean only those who voted for one of the two lowest value bins [for which there are votes] remain in the running for bragging rights?

I believe so. Given voting closed less than a month ago, that isn't very good. I am one of two who went for lowest bin with votes. May 99 was lower than April 99 and if that happens maybe we will be close or under a rise of 1.25. No guarantee there will be such a month with under 1.25 rise but perhaps looking reasonably good for that and my guess.

But Yuha had it sussed long ago

I think there should actually be more buckets at the lower end.
The recent high values are partly due to El Nino and we can expect some lower rises with a return to more neutral ENSO. At least that is what happened in 1998-99:

     1998  1999  2016
Jan +2.17 +2.92 +2.54
Feb +1.95 +3.09 +3.76
Mar +2.73 +2.44 +3.29
Apr +2.31 +2.33 +4.14
May +2.87 +1.54 +3.74
Jun +3.40 +1.31 +4.01
Jul +3.51 +1.63 +3.08
Aug +3.70 +0.95 +3.32
Sep +3.73 +0.79 +3.40
Oct +3.58 +0.97 +3.28
Nov +3.03 +1.20 +3.37
Dec +2.75 +0.97 +2.63



So maybe by September there will be a month with rise below 0.75 and everyone will be wrong.


I concur that setting up a poll by using a year including a Godzilla El Nino event as a baseline is a good way to catch people off-balance who are thinking about an averaged trend-line basis of comparison.

Edit 1: Much like the 'faux hiatus' was cherry-picked by comparing GMSTA values during that period to a baseline of 1997-1998 during the immediate prior Super El Nino event.

Edit 2: With regard to the perception of a 'faux hiatus' as discussed in Edit 1, the  linked reference indicates how accurate averaged projections can be (see the associated attached image) when all of the various inputs are normalized correctly:

Iselin Medhaug, Martin B. Stolpe, Erich M. Fischer& Reto Knutti (2017), "Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’", Nature, doi:10.1038/nature22315

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v545/n7652/full/nature22315.html


Abstract: "Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming."
« Last Edit: May 06, 2017, 05:21:58 AM by AbruptSLR »
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #92 on: May 19, 2017, 03:40:17 PM »
May 18:     410.21 ppm
May 17:     410.03 ppm
May 16:     Unavailable
May 15:     411.27 ppm
May 14:     Unavailable

all over 410 :(

DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #93 on: May 20, 2017, 01:35:36 AM »
May 18:     410.21 ppm
May 17:     410.03 ppm
May 16:     Unavailable
May 15:     411.27 ppm
May 14:     Unavailable

all over 410 :(

We''ll be high at 420
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

TerryM

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #94 on: May 20, 2017, 03:57:41 AM »
May 18:     410.21 ppm
May 17:     410.03 ppm
May 16:     Unavailable
May 15:     411.27 ppm
May 14:     Unavailable

all over 410 :(

We''ll be high at 420


Speak for yourself, I'm getting high right now!


Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #95 on: May 20, 2017, 05:59:22 AM »

We''ll be high at 420
[/quote]

Speak for yourself, I'm getting high right now!

Terry
[/quote]

Which makes me wonder just how high you are when you normally post :o
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #96 on: May 21, 2017, 08:03:27 PM »
  2017   5  14  2017.3658    410.36  5           407.39    386.30

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #97 on: May 25, 2017, 06:09:21 AM »
This should start going down now, though our government is (what I hear) doing plenty to cut down forests to increase the future growth... (hope the actors in this know that the better way to store carbon wrt is to store the felled wood, use it to build something durable f.e., and NOT burn it, like some have stated. That is, the size of the recycled human carbon pool depends partly on the amount of Wooden structures. There are other ways to store it yes. No, there are none which would allow you to burn the wood and rise the forest carbon pool at the same time. Unless you calculate it wrong and falsely. No, it does not help at all to burn wood only at nights, though the IR escapes to dark space. it does not do it ANY BETTER and you leave the CO2 to the atmosphere to block it more. No the fact that radiation is faster than gas movements does not help. Unless you have an infrared laser cooling system pointed out of your wood burning stove. No, you can't buy them anywhere since there are none that have been built. No you can't build those even if they were possible to build any cheaper than a fully electric car with an in-built noise maker so you can continue to disturb the neighborhood. (add insults to certain officials here)

Sorry for the rant.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #98 on: May 29, 2017, 01:27:46 AM »
The linked NOAA website entitled: "THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)" was updated in Spring of 2017 with GHG data through the end of 2016 (see the attached images).  I note that if one assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 35 instead of 25 (per AR5), then NOAA's calculated value for the CO2-eq for 2016 would be 521ppm instead of 489ppm; which is a big difference, and one that NOAA should publically acknowledge.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

 Global Radiative Forcing, CO2-equivalent mixing ratio, and the AGGI
                         Global Radiative Forcing (W m-2)           CO2-eq
                                                                                     (ppm)        AGGI
Year     CO2     CH4    N2O   CFC12 CFC11 15-minor  Total Total   1990 = 1   %change

2013   1.882  0.496   0.184   0.167   0.059   0.114  2.901   478      1.340        2.0
2014   1.908  0.499   0.187   0.166   0.058   0.116  2.935   481      1.356        1.6
2015   1.939  0.504   0.190   0.165   0.058   0.118  2.974   485      1.374        1.8
2016   1.985  0.507   0.193   0.164   0.057   0.121  3.027   489      1.399        2.5

CH4   ΔF = β(M½ - Mo½) - [f(M,No) - f(Mo,No)]   β = 0.036
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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oren

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #99 on: May 29, 2017, 07:52:07 AM »
Thanks ASLR. These charts make me seriously question the Sapiens part in HS.