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anotheramethyst

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #50 on: January 14, 2017, 09:12:15 AM »
We are witnessing a polar climate regime shift as it happens, moving from a frigid, desert to a humid, relatively warmer climate. I expect that we will see a high humidity melt season, cloudy, relatively cool with abnormally high precipitation. With a highly mobile ice pack, we should expect to continue to see the effects of this, perhaps another season of the "Garlic Press", perhaps high transport through the Fram or Nares. What I do expect is to see the ice in the CAB to go lickety split wherever the prevailing winds want to take it. The end result will be an even more highly fragmented ice pack, continuing a 40 year trend of increasing dispersion at minimum.

(Sorry about the chart....easier to read if you click on it.)

ooh another good one!  just wondering, do you think dispersion is inversely related to volume?  or maybe to one of the thickness graphs like pijamas?  are there any ways to calculate average floe size (besides pixel counting... I don't want to be responsible for causing someone to have a seizure or nervous breakdown!!  haha)?  just trying to wrap my head around different ways to look at the "slushiness" of the ice. 


Shared Humanity

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #52 on: January 14, 2017, 03:46:54 PM »
We are witnessing a polar climate regime shift as it happens, moving from a frigid, desert to a humid, relatively warmer climate. I expect that we will see a high humidity melt season, cloudy, relatively cool with abnormally high precipitation. With a highly mobile ice pack, we should expect to continue to see the effects of this, perhaps another season of the "Garlic Press", perhaps high transport through the Fram or Nares. What I do expect is to see the ice in the CAB to go lickety split wherever the prevailing winds want to take it. The end result will be an even more highly fragmented ice pack, continuing a 40 year trend of increasing dispersion at minimum.



(Sorry about the chart....easier to read if you click on it.)

ooh another good one!  just wondering, do you think dispersion is inversely related to volume?  or maybe to one of the thickness graphs like pijamas?  are there any ways to calculate average floe size (besides pixel counting... I don't want to be responsible for causing someone to have a seizure or nervous breakdown!!  haha)?  just trying to wrap my head around different ways to look at the "slushiness" of the ice.

There is no question that dispersion is tied to volume. If you look at the chart, it appears that there are three shifts or steps up in dispersion which occurred in 1988/1989, 1998 and 2008. We all know what happened in 2007. I believe 1998 was a big El Nino. What happened to volume then? What I think we are seeing is that, when there is a massive melt season, the effect is to decimate MYI, replace it with thin FYI with a resulting upward shift in mobility.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2017, 11:59:22 PM by Shared Humanity »

DrTskoul

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #53 on: January 14, 2017, 03:58:26 PM »
A rachet....

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #54 on: February 07, 2017, 03:34:26 AM »
There is an experiment some talk about from time to time where a pan with ice is heated up.  The ice will all melt (so claim those who’ve done the experiment) before any of  the water exceeds the freezing point.  (I believe them, basically.)  To extend this knowledge to the Arctic, one would extrapolate that all of the sea ice must melt before the SSTs start heating up.

However, the Arctic Ocean is not well represented by this pan of water in multiple ways.  The melting season heat basically starts on the southern edges, and the ice in the middle (~CAB) tends to be thicker than on the edges (all the peripheral seas).  So I wonder what the pan of water and ice experiment would look like when the pan is elongated, thicker ice is kept at one end, and heat is applied at the thin-ice end.  How do the temperatures change in different parts of the pan before and after all the ice melts?

Most of the peripheral seas melt completely or nearly so during the melting season, and the surface water no longer close to ice then starts to warm some.  Will it warm up more, or much more, when all the sea ice in the CAB also melts?  (I'm guessing 'not much more' - and mostly because peripheral seas will melt out earlier than usual when the CAB finally succumbs.)

I don’t expect an ice free Arctic this year, but it’ll happen soon.  I don't expect the Arctic Ocean SSTs will act particularly different after 'total' melt out, unless storminess (with water vapor and Ekman pumping, etc.) increases more than it has already. 
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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #55 on: February 07, 2017, 07:20:22 AM »
1) Re-establishment of the North Pacific hotspot as Kuroshio current gets a boost from the waning El Nino (this would be near Ohotsk initially)
2) Speeding up (to near former levels) of North Atlantic Drift to warm the Norwegian Sea back up a bit (not that it has been particularly cold recently)
3) As the Siberian spring starts late (but no later than in the 1980-1990s) the temperature anomalies of summer inflow to arctic ocean should be positive but by how much, no guess. I don't know how much snow Siberia has had this winter so no guess of amounts of fresh water.
4) due 2) the Barents and Kara Sea temperature anomalies get back up.

This would amount to the earliest opening of the Northern Sea Route north of Siberia, and subsequent fast melt of the Eurasian side of Arctic Ocean. I'll expect the CAA side to be relatively peaceful considering cyclones and general temperatures be on the lower side of the new normal. Northwest Passage opens late if at all wholly. CAB should still mostly melt as the weakened floes wander by ambiguous currents/winds to the Eurasian side. No guesses on the _amount_ of remaining ice but guessing it'll  be the lowest by a not-inconsiderable gap. Was I vague enough, we'll see.

DavidR

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #56 on: February 07, 2017, 10:00:51 AM »
Jim Pettit’s graph showing the trend in maximum volume and volume loss:
https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-volume#asivamlir
suggests that the trend value for minimum volume this year is close to 3K km^3.

However it appears we are going to start the decline closer to 20 K km^3 rather than the trend value of 22K. With the trend value for volume loss above 19 K and several years losing more than 1.5 K above the trend there appears to be a real chance that this year will see an ice free Arctic for some period in September. My expectation is that this year will see extent drop below 2 M km^2. And if I am pessimistic an extent below 1 M Km^2 is possible.

The only good news I can see is that I generally overestimate the losses
 :'(
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johnm33

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #57 on: February 07, 2017, 11:14:24 AM »
It looks like the loss of thick ice, and the broken state of the pack is presenting far less resistance to tidal forcings. The recent opening of the ice north of SB-FJL is likely to be repeated this weekend around the full moon. If this happens then I think we can expect to see a slow increase in the flow of water across the face of the continental shelf north of Barents.
With Atlantic water finding it easier to force it's way into the Arctic more water will be pushed out for net balance, the easiest fraction to move is the surface water so an acceleration of exit from Fram, and an acceleration of recycling Arctic waters in north Atlantic currents. 

RikW

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #58 on: February 07, 2017, 11:42:17 AM »
Jim Pettit’s graph showing the trend in maximum volume and volume loss:
https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-volume#asivamlir
suggests that the trend value for minimum volume this year is close to 3K km^3.

However it appears we are going to start the decline closer to 20 K km^3 rather than the trend value of 22K. With the trend value for volume loss above 19 K and several years losing more than 1.5 K above the trend there appears to be a real chance that this year will see an ice free Arctic for some period in September. My expectation is that this year will see extent drop below 2 M km^2. And if I am pessimistic an extent below 1 M Km^2 is possible.

The only good news I can see is that I generally overestimate the losses
 :'(

I think you are too pessimistic. When looking at the antarctic melt season, it's currently on record low numbers, because almost everything except the Weddell Sea has melted. But because almost everything else has melted, the area and extent numbers decrease numbers are much lower then former years. The graphs went down faster, but also started to lvl out much earlier. There still is some melting, but not so much easy ice left to melt.

I won't be surprised if we will see the same during the arctic melt season. First months much more violent, but the graph will level out much earlier. And there will be regions that won't be ice free yet this summer in the Arctic.
Ice loss can never be higher than Ice maximum ;)

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #59 on: February 07, 2017, 11:50:12 AM »
Rough prediction: sea ice minimum volume of 2000 km3, based on a net drop from Jan 31st's volume halfway between the average and the maximum for the past ten years, as described in a comment on the main blog. I'd put wide error bars on the upper end in particular, expecting the minimum to fall somewhere in the 1000 to 6000 range; it's always possible we'll get poor melting conditions, but some of the oldest and thickest ice remaining is not likely to melt out this year whatever the conditions.

DavidR

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #60 on: February 07, 2017, 12:17:07 PM »
Ice loss can never be higher than Ice maximum ;)
This is true but the Arctic minimum can arrive before the end of the melt season and stay there for some time. Ice free is generally considered to be 1M km^2 of extent, that would not surprise me this year given the low volume we are already  seeing. 

As for the Antarctic the ice is only  134K above the record and there could be more than three weeks of melt  left. A temporary slowdown at this stage may just be weather related. 
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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #61 on: February 07, 2017, 12:30:33 PM »
I think you are too pessimistic. When looking at the antarctic melt season, it's currently on record low numbers, because almost everything except the Weddell Sea has melted.

Actually, it's only the Ross and Amundsen seas that could reasonably be said to have melted out. The rest could all meet a bit more, depending on how conditions go the next few weeks. (See Wipneis' regional extent charts, correlate with concentration maps).

magnamentis

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #62 on: February 07, 2017, 01:02:26 PM »
Ice loss can never be higher than Ice maximum ;)
This is true but the Arctic minimum can arrive before the end of the melt season and stay there for some time. Ice free is generally considered to be 1M km^2 of extent, that would not surprise me this year given the low volume we are already  seeing. 

As for the Antarctic the ice is only  134K above the record and there could be more than three weeks of melt  left. A temporary slowdown at this stage may just be weather related.

i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play.

this is exactly one of the reasons why we have so many problems as to what to believe and so few people have a clear and founded opinion about problems and eventual solutions. too many people always come up (not you) with definitions and interpretations that can easily be countered by those with other interests or even an honest different opinion which make a clear case a dispute.

what do you all think what happens if the arctic will be declared ice-free with another 999'999 km2 around. deniers and polititians as well as lobbyists will immediately start a campaign and rightfully proof that this is not true, sat-images will suffice then to let everyone know that the so called ice-free ocean is indeed NOT ice free.

hence my appeal is to not use definitions but only facts where possible and the term "ice-free" should be reserved for only one condition/situation, when there is ZERO ice left that can be seen from a satellite, while everyone will understand that an isolated ice floe of a certain small size cannot be considered sea-ice but more over a floe or an ice berg at best.

this is less meant to criticize the definition above but to help remaining as credible and as close to un-deniable facts as possible, hardcore deniers will even deny facts but that kind is a vast minority and sooner or later will be overthrown by the majority.

Jim Williams

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #63 on: February 07, 2017, 03:02:17 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #64 on: February 07, 2017, 03:17:04 PM »
And what rough ice, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards the Fram to perish?

Melting totals haven't been that high in recent years. Last year had record lows in the spring but didn't come particularly close to breaking the record. Of course the maximum will be even lower this year. I think the expected value is roughly at the 2012 record right now. There is one unusual variable that could be important though- the Blob. If the Blob exits the Fram then we could be looking at the volume record being shattered.

magnamentis

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #65 on: February 07, 2017, 03:42:41 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.

a few flecks, ok, more or less what i as well wanted to say, bergs, floes, whatever, i agree with that "simile" while pointing out again that 1'000'000 km2 is not what i consider floes, specks, flecks, bergs etc. one could even say that it's ice free when it cannot be measured, which covers your example as well as mine :-)

gerontocrat

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #66 on: February 07, 2017, 04:00:57 PM »
Dear Dave C,

PROSPECTS FOR 2017 MELTING SEASON ?

“Things fall apart, the CAB cannot hold” ?

My thoughts (from someone who is an analyst, but not a climate scientist).

January ice volume nearly 10 percent lower than previous January minimum.
No indication that remainder of freezing season will see ice formation above average.
Therefore all things being equal (or average) very low sea ice extent and record low volume maximum.

Therefore another year of early and increased spring melt surely meaning early and increased area of open ocean gobbling up sunshine, i.e. increased positive feedback into global warming, SSTs in northern latitudes ?

Even with another cool and cloudy arctic summer, is there any reason to suppose that by September we will not see ice extent below 2007 certainly, 2012 possibly, and sea ice volume down to perhaps circa 3000 km3 ? (At which point 80 percent+ less than 1979).
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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #67 on: February 07, 2017, 04:29:13 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.

a few flecks, ok, more or less what i as well wanted to say, bergs, floes, whatever, i agree with that "simile" while pointing out again that 1'000'000 km2 is not what i consider floes, specks, flecks, bergs etc. one could even say that it's ice free when it cannot be measured, which covers your example as well as mine :-)

My measure is physical, like yours, not arbitrary like theirs.  At the same time it is acknowledging what they are trying to say with their million (though treating it as a guess).

What I haven't defined is the value for "temps near freezing," and I am still a bit vague on what that should be as a number.  I know what it will look like on the DMI 80N graph for Summer -- but is that over 5C for 5 days or more?

BTW -- I am not expecting that this Summer, but I am expecting there to be some visual space in that graph when it is supposed to be freezing at the end of Summer.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #68 on: February 07, 2017, 04:57:39 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.

a few flecks, ok, more or less what i as well wanted to say, bergs, floes, whatever, i agree with that "simile" while pointing out again that 1'000'000 km2 is not what i consider floes, specks, flecks, bergs etc. one could even say that it's ice free when it cannot be measured, which covers your example as well as mine :-)

My measure is physical, like yours, not arbitrary like theirs.  At the same time it is acknowledging what they are trying to say with their million (though treating it as a guess).

What I haven't defined is the value for "temps near freezing," and I am still a bit vague on what that should be as a number.  I know what it will look like on the DMI 80N graph for Summer -- but is that over 5C for 5 days or more?

BTW -- I am not expecting that this Summer, but I am expecting there to be some visual space in that graph when it is supposed to be freezing at the end of Summer.

I'm sure , with the eye of faith, the last days of 2016's melt season show the DMI 80N 'kick up' for a few days before it dropped into its Autumn madness ? This is how I would 'imagine' the plot announcing 'ice free' but then what if the 80N area cleared of ice but had ice surrounding it? We'd still see the 'latent heat of fusion' block removed?

With early melt out we could see 'rafts' of residual ice impacting local regions but allowing warming over large , contiguous, areas of ocean ( the areas that will eventually 'kill off ' the 'rafts of ice'?).
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Jim Williams

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #69 on: February 07, 2017, 05:17:59 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.

a few flecks, ok, more or less what i as well wanted to say, bergs, floes, whatever, i agree with that "simile" while pointing out again that 1'000'000 km2 is not what i consider floes, specks, flecks, bergs etc. one could even say that it's ice free when it cannot be measured, which covers your example as well as mine :-)

My measure is physical, like yours, not arbitrary like theirs.  At the same time it is acknowledging what they are trying to say with their million (though treating it as a guess).

What I haven't defined is the value for "temps near freezing," and I am still a bit vague on what that should be as a number.  I know what it will look like on the DMI 80N graph for Summer -- but is that over 5C for 5 days or more?

BTW -- I am not expecting that this Summer, but I am expecting there to be some visual space in that graph when it is supposed to be freezing at the end of Summer.

I'm sure , with the eye of faith, the last days of 2016's melt season show the DMI 80N 'kick up' for a few days before it dropped into its Autumn madness ? This is how I would 'imagine' the plot announcing 'ice free' but then what if the 80N area cleared of ice but had ice surrounding it? We'd still see the 'latent heat of fusion' block removed?

With early melt out we could see 'rafts' of residual ice impacting local regions but allowing warming over large , contiguous, areas of ocean ( the areas that will eventually 'kill off ' the 'rafts of ice'?).

I would rate the Atlantic eating out the heart of the Arctic as a reasonable guess.  I think we are in the WACC crowd.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #70 on: February 07, 2017, 05:35:25 PM »

I would rate the Atlantic eating out the heart of the Arctic as a reasonable guess.  I think we are in the WACC crowd.


I think this is the main point. The skein of ice will persist while there is a buoyant freshwater lens. I expect the incursions of warm Atlantic water to penetrate further over continental shelf into the CAB; We can observe this now, with the tongue of warm surface water north of Svalbard. That is the surface expression of a much larger body of water. I expect the surface area of warm saline water to expand, broaden, and it will elongate eastward following the counter clockwise flow of the polar currents.

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #71 on: February 07, 2017, 05:45:19 PM »

I would rate the Atlantic eating out the heart of the Arctic as a reasonable guess.  I think we are in the WACC crowd.
I think this is the main point. The skein of ice will persist while there is a buoyant freshwater lens. I expect the incursions of warm Atlantic water to penetrate further over continental shelf into the CAB; We can observe this now, with the tongue of warm surface water north of Svalbard. That is the surface expression of a much larger body of water. I expect the surface area of warm saline water to expand, broaden, and it will elongate eastward following the counter clockwise flow of the polar currents.
Sorting out cause and effect in a real system is meaningless,  but I think the other side of this is the near complete elimination of the Arctic Atmospheric Cell.  I might think Warm Ocean Cold Continents, but I do not expect the continents to be particularly cold.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #72 on: February 07, 2017, 05:48:41 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.
Per DMI N80 graph (using a ruler...), 'historically average' summer temp is about 274.3 K = 1.2ºC, with a one day peak temp of about 276.

I'm quite taken with this «draft» 'new' definition of 'functionally ice free':  when DMI-80 temps average 276K (2.8ºC - or some other value) over a 10-day period.

I wonder if this will happen before or after 'less than 1M sq km extent' is reached?
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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #73 on: February 07, 2017, 06:00:51 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.

a few flecks, ok, more or less what i as well wanted to say, bergs, floes, whatever, i agree with that "simile" while pointing out again that 1'000'000 km2 is not what i consider floes, specks, flecks, bergs etc. one could even say that it's ice free when it cannot be measured, which covers your example as well as mine :-)

My measure is physical, like yours, not arbitrary like theirs.  At the same time it is acknowledging what they are trying to say with their million (though treating it as a guess).

What I haven't defined is the value for "temps near freezing," and I am still a bit vague on what that should be as a number.  I know what it will look like on the DMI 80N graph for Summer -- but is that over 5C for 5 days or more?

BTW -- I am not expecting that this Summer, but I am expecting there to be some visual space in that graph when it is supposed to be freezing at the end of Summer.
I read your earlier and was thinking of replying along similar lines but you stole the March on me.

I'd actually set the temperature limit lower, as the ocean will be a powerful moderator as well.  I would extend the time however. 3C+ average for 10 days is sufficient I think.
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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #74 on: February 07, 2017, 06:03:55 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.
Per DMI N80 graph (using a ruler...), 'historically average' summer temp is about 274.3 K = 1.2ºC, with a one day peak temp of about 276.

I'm quite taken with this «draft» 'new' definition of 'functionally ice free':  when DMI-80 temps average 276K (2.8ºC - or some other value) over a 10-day period.

I wonder if this will happen before or after 'less than 1M sq km extent' is reached?
Convergent thinking.  I think it will be a coin toss, but will be close.
This space for Rent.

Jim Williams

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #75 on: February 07, 2017, 06:12:08 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.

a few flecks, ok, more or less what i as well wanted to say, bergs, floes, whatever, i agree with that "simile" while pointing out again that 1'000'000 km2 is not what i consider floes, specks, flecks, bergs etc. one could even say that it's ice free when it cannot be measured, which covers your example as well as mine :-)

My measure is physical, like yours, not arbitrary like theirs.  At the same time it is acknowledging what they are trying to say with their million (though treating it as a guess).

What I haven't defined is the value for "temps near freezing," and I am still a bit vague on what that should be as a number.  I know what it will look like on the DMI 80N graph for Summer -- but is that over 5C for 5 days or more?

BTW -- I am not expecting that this Summer, but I am expecting there to be some visual space in that graph when it is supposed to be freezing at the end of Summer.
I read your earlier and was thinking of replying along similar lines but you stole the March on me.

I'd actually set the temperature limit lower, as the ocean will be a powerful moderator as well.  I would extend the time however. 3C+ average for 10 days is sufficient I think.

I'll buy into that.  I was tossing out a "safe" number.  Between you and Tor I think we can find a better pair of numbers rather than my safe one.

magnamentis

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #76 on: February 07, 2017, 07:15:52 PM »
i don't like this "generally considered" and i know it's not you, just taking the opportunity to throw in my 2cts. again. ice free is "ICE-FREE" which means that there is no sea-ice anymore. everything is once ore artificial man-made definition to better fit the needs or wishes of those who bring a certain defintition into play...

I think it is ice free when there is no longer enough ice to keep the temps at freezing.  That is when my soda is ice free, even if there are a few flecks of ice in the glass.

a few flecks, ok, more or less what i as well wanted to say, bergs, floes, whatever, i agree with that "simile" while pointing out again that 1'000'000 km2 is not what i consider floes, specks, flecks, bergs etc. one could even say that it's ice free when it cannot be measured, which covers your example as well as mine :-)

My measure is physical, like yours, not arbitrary like theirs.  At the same time it is acknowledging what they are trying to say with their million (though treating it as a guess).

What I haven't defined is the value for "temps near freezing," and I am still a bit vague on what that should be as a number.  I know what it will look like on the DMI 80N graph for Summer -- but is that over 5C for 5 days or more?

BTW -- I am not expecting that this Summer, but I am expecting there to be some visual space in that graph when it is supposed to be freezing at the end of Summer.
I read your earlier and was thinking of replying along similar lines but you stole the March on me.

I'd actually set the temperature limit lower, as the ocean will be a powerful moderator as well.  I would extend the time however. 3C+ average for 10 days is sufficient I think.

I'll buy into that.  I was tossing out a "safe" number.  Between you and Tor I think we can find a better pair of numbers rather than my safe one.

sorry again if the sounded wrong, it was not meant to be personal or anything against "your numbers" you just mentioned the nombers as they are floating around. my point was to mention that we, if we want to have an effect on general puplic, should be very careful to never use numbers that anyone can see that they're either wrong or subject to subjective interpretation that can be used against the facts by the "enemies" of the truth which in this case are the deniers of climate change.

there is much more to it and it's an illness of these days that has an impact in many fields, last but not least the monetary system and the economy.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #77 on: February 07, 2017, 07:26:38 PM »
Communication of effectively ice free is a bit of a conundrum.
There will be some ice for decades, even if only icebergs.
Clearly trumpeting an ice free arctic with almost a million km of ice is asking for trouble.
Setting a DMI N80 temperature/time threshold is much better, but very hard to communicate.
Perhaps it is time to give up on declaring an ice free arctic ocean.
Once a ship can sail to the north pole without encountering any sea ice, and once images of blue sea to the horizon are transmitted, I think the message will have been sent.

DrTskoul

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #78 on: February 07, 2017, 07:31:48 PM »
TMQ.... Too many inline quotes....

gerontocrat

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #79 on: February 07, 2017, 07:50:54 PM »
I was a finance analyst for many years. Getting messages to non-finance people is NOT easy. Is it not the same for climate issues ? Numbers often won't work. Technical discussions don't work.
Sometimes I had to say - The business is broke! Once (in Indonesia on a water project), I said - if you put in this water supply project, you have a money machine. It worked.
Methinks climate people have to find a way of getting the message across in less than 140 characters plus the graphics- to defeat Trumpers on their own ground.

The point is you guys have the indisputable data - but how to shove it down the throat of Breibart and the Heritage Foundation.

Sorry to go off topic, ASIF Governor.
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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season
« Reply #80 on: February 07, 2017, 07:51:02 PM »
once images of blue sea to the horizon are transmitted, I think the message will have been sent.

By that time, it will be too late for billions and the global economy. People will not find this out in the news. Most, specially in the northern hemisphere, will find out about it because climate systems close to them will break down.

I really can't understand why people worry about the AMOC and not this. As I understand it, a slow down of the AMOC is dangerous because it will change the dynamics of the ocean atmosphere interface. That's is exactly what we are witnessing as the Arctic melts.  Except that the Arctic is central to the northern hemisphere. I think once we get a BOE its game over for civilization as we know it. There will be too many changes happening at a global scale.

I don't know if it will happen this year. I act as if it won't, but things are not looking good. But what do I know. I am just a crazy man predicting the end of the world.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #81 on: February 07, 2017, 09:26:32 PM »
277,15 K for me (densest Greenland/river water) as the limit. Should change the internal ocean dynamics pretty well that. Doesn't really matter how long or short time it takes to get tonthat. Blue Ocean Event should have happened earlier. I think I'll start to follow the melting in Greenland more in the future. CO2 is of course the main factor there too, and the surplus H2O it has helped to gasify. Gaseous CH4 may become a large factor for arctic winters in the near future helping the new normal establish itself.

Jim Williams

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #82 on: February 07, 2017, 09:33:55 PM »
Communication of effectively ice free is a bit of a conundrum.
There will be some ice for decades, even if only icebergs.
Clearly trumpeting an ice free arctic with almost a million km of ice is asking for trouble.
Setting a DMI N80 temperature/time threshold is much better, but very hard to communicate.
Perhaps it is time to give up on declaring an ice free arctic ocean.
Once a ship can sail to the north pole without encountering any sea ice, and once images of blue sea to the horizon are transmitted, I think the message will have been sent.
There is merit to that.  I am interested in when we get an Arctic that is no longer cold (and preventing Greenland from melting down).  Ice Free is just a popular analog.

The important part of an Ice Free Arctic will be the lack of an Ice Cap...and therefore nothing else but Greenland absorbing the excess heat.

oren

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #83 on: February 10, 2017, 12:41:37 PM »
Very interesting discussion. First, I expect record low volume, the same for area with a high probability, and the same for extent as a realistic possibility. If last year's average melt conditions brought the ice to not so far above the record for area, this year has a much higher chance.
Physically speaking, there are several feedback loops here stemming from the relative abundance of open water in and around the arctic. Winter temps are very high, and storms keep coming in, impeding refreeze and loading the ice with snow. FDDs deficit is enormous, and volume unsurprisingly at record low and will remain that way until the end of the freezing season. The melting season will see a lot of early open water soaking up the sun in the peripheral seas, and a mobile ice pack that insists on moving into these warmed-up waters. However, the same open water feedback may very well create a cloudy and cool arctic, and the thick snow may act as an inhibitor to insolation-driven melt. In the end as usual it's a race of factors against time, but my bet is against the ice.

Let me add another question - what will be the first year where DMI 80N temps exceed 277 at some point? Is there a chance it could be 2017?
I'm glad the discussion has veered again to the DMI question, moving beyond the ice to the first immediate consequence.
In addition, I want to add a more specific prediction regarding the Beaufort, this year should see the earliest zero extent there, considering the lack of MYI. Extent drops should start in April unless some magic weather comes along, and conclude in July.
(And since my predictions tend not to materialize, at least I'll know I saved the Beaufort)  :P

Gray-Wolf

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #84 on: February 10, 2017, 02:01:00 PM »
I think it very difficult for most of us to imagine the scale of change that is now occurring , every year, in terms of energy absorbed by land and Ocean that 30yrs ago would have been lost back to space.

It took the basin a number of years to come to terms with it too!

With the collapse in spring snow cover, followed by the reduction in ice cover over Barentsz/Kara , we had to wait half a dozen years or so for the impacts to be more than some crazy cold plunges into unlikely areas or record snow dumps bringing down supermarket roofing etc.

We have been seeing a more recognisable set of driven impacts since the end of the noughties but by this time the Beaufort/Baffin/ESS had also become seasonally open and so were imparting their energy harvest to the atmosphere above the Arctic.

I believe that this extra energy in the Arctic Ocean is what has been giving the added 'Ooomph' ,since 2012, to the N.Hemisphere Autumn/early winter atmosphere and that any 'lag time' we had to serve before seeing the added open water areas give impact is now served?

This melt season will be the teacher for us all. We will know how many FDD's the ice has absorbed and how much volume we have. Over the weather's of this coming season we will see just how much this conditioning leads to early open water and complete melt out of various ice thickness.

I think I'm safe in saying that a return of the 07' Perfect Melt storm synoptic would be the end of the ice?

So a repeat of last years weather would give us less ice ,come min, than 2016 and a perfect melt storm would melt us out completely. That means that only a worse year than last year ( for melt/export) could possibly give us a healthier pack than last year left us with and what do folk figure the odds of that is?

I also believe that the current 'oddness' in the atmospheric layer above the troposphere is also related to the outpouring of heat over the Arctic basin in Autumn/Early winter and that its impacts are being largely ignored. This past winter should have been QBO easterly but its failure to reverse left us with an extended QBO W phase and the impacts that then had on ENSO /MJO over the year just past. QBO is currently again trying to establish a reversal so we need keep an eye on how that proceeds? Last year all was fine up until the reversal reached near ground level when it just reversed back up remaining westerly.




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Jim Williams

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #85 on: February 10, 2017, 02:50:57 PM »
I also believe that the current 'oddness' in the atmospheric layer above the troposphere is also related to the outpouring of heat over the Arctic basin in Autumn/Early winter and that its impacts are being largely ignored. This past winter should have been QBO easterly but its failure to reverse left us with an extended QBO W phase and the impacts that then had on ENSO /MJO over the year just past. QBO is currently again trying to establish a reversal so we need keep an eye on how that proceeds? Last year all was fine up until the reversal reached near ground level when it just reversed back up remaining westerly.

I think the oddness in the Atmosphere, at all levels, is more related to the inpouring of wet air.  Other than that, I pretty much agree with you.

Jim Williams

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #86 on: February 10, 2017, 06:57:08 PM »
Thank you. End of announcement. Back to the Freezing Season thread. Melting Season thread will soon be re-opened. Allow for some overlap. It's not the end of the world...

Okay, that last sentence perhaps wasn't the best expression to use.  ;) :) :-[ :'(

Um....partly I just want to be mean...however, now aren't you sorry you closed the melting season thread?

Gray-Wolf

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #87 on: February 10, 2017, 09:12:43 PM »
Thank you. End of announcement. Back to the Freezing Season thread. Melting Season thread will soon be re-opened. Allow for some overlap. It's not the end of the world...

Okay, that last sentence perhaps wasn't the best expression to use.  ;) :) :-[ :'(

Um....partly I just want to be mean...however, now aren't you sorry you closed the melting season thread?

Which is why i though it wise to open this thread so we could continue to cogitate that yet to come :)

EDIT I wonder how many pages the melt season thread will need this year???
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Jim Williams

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #88 on: February 10, 2017, 09:32:09 PM »
Thank you. End of announcement. Back to the Freezing Season thread. Melting Season thread will soon be re-opened. Allow for some overlap. It's not the end of the world...

Okay, that last sentence perhaps wasn't the best expression to use.  ;) :) :-[ :'(

Um....partly I just want to be mean...however, now aren't you sorry you closed the melting season thread?

Which is why i though it wise to open this thread so we could continue to cogitate that yet to come :)

EDIT I wonder how many pages the melt season thread will need this year???

I'd agree, however I am not completely convinced about that "yet to come".

4 or 5 times last year.

wallen

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #89 on: February 10, 2017, 10:39:38 PM »
AS a novice will keep it simple. I think the North Pole region is a very strong chance of being declared "Ice free" " at some stage

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #90 on: February 10, 2017, 11:17:25 PM »
...
 I wonder how many pages the melt season thread will need this year???
Extrapolating from what you just wrote, you think there will be some melting during the melt season, right?  Some people here, I think, expect all of the melting will occur before then. 
::) :P
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Feeltheburn

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #91 on: February 13, 2017, 06:35:26 AM »
With Beaufort having thicker ice this season, coupled with no gyre thus far, and seeing that the big extent drops in recent years are due to high ice melt in the western regions of the arctic, I predict more ice will persist longer in the western arctic region such that the minimum ice extent in 2017 will be higher than 2016.
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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #92 on: February 13, 2017, 12:06:46 PM »
Quote
With Beaufort having thicker ice this season, coupled with no gyre thus far

Wait... what? where do you get that from? Nothing I have seen indicate that, quite the contrary.  Can you please show a source?
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meddoc

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #93 on: February 13, 2017, 12:44:38 PM »
Two Words:

Global Catastrophy

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #94 on: February 13, 2017, 12:46:08 PM »
I do not think FTB will oblige as we all know Beaufort is one big mess of FY ice this time with even the coastal strip a mere slip of what we are used to seeing there.

When was the last 'babies arm' in Beaufort ( and out into ESS)? 2014?

FTB has been absent recently and I have to wonder if this was due to similar 'trolling'?

Maybe we wait for their evidence before engaging with them again.

I had held off bemoaning his/her claims thinking it was just trolling and so best left but maybe other need to know?

 
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Archimid

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #95 on: February 13, 2017, 01:16:40 PM »
Yeah. I think FTB's posts are correlated with the few spouts of recovery we have seen. Every time Arctic conditions seem to improve he makes a post. When things are bad he disappears.  I bet he is not even aware of it. I bet he filters out the bad and only keeps what is convenient for his peace of mind.
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DavidR

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #96 on: February 13, 2017, 02:38:37 PM »
And in the Antarctic we have a new all time record low for NSIDC SIE. 2.246 M km^2, breaking the old record by  18K with 1 - 3 weeks of melting still to go.
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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #97 on: February 13, 2017, 03:11:58 PM »
The only way I see we could be higher than 2016 is if there was another chill gray summer like 2013 and ' 14.

I think the pack experienced another melt season state change in 2016 and so if the sun shows itself for a while like it did in July 2015 we could see a crash into the 3's and if we get a sunny summer with a perfectly positioned storm like 2012 we could see the 2's, and worst-case scenario we see a summer with sun all of May, June, July like 2007 and fall into the 1's or even 0's. :o

Of course coming with that possible state change we would see a highly fragmented, uncompactable pack which would mean that late season (A-S) compaction is impossible, so it should also be quite broken up and have many areas of medium concentration, so another statistical oddity with SIE showing a tie with 2012 and SIA showing a new record minimum in the upper 1's is definitely possible, like how last year had the SIE showing a tie with 2007 and SIA appearing only slightly better than 2012...

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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #98 on: February 13, 2017, 03:24:32 PM »
With Beaufort having thicker ice this season, coupled with no gyre thus far, and seeing that the big extent drops in recent years are due to high ice melt in the western regions of the arctic, I predict more ice will persist longer in the western arctic region such that the minimum ice extent in 2017 will be higher than 2016.

This year and 2013 have in common an almost absolute absence of MYI in the Pacific half of the Arctic. This year's very late refreezing implies little snow cover in these areas, and, I guess, that should be helping these areas thicken up and recover before May.
Still the quality of ice is what it was in 2013, exceptionally young flat (thin) salty ice. A lot will depend on the weather.


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Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #99 on: February 13, 2017, 03:40:01 PM »
Record low ice volume for Feb, March & April allowing strong early melt priming very strong insolation late April to early August as in 2016. But even more dramatic than 2016 ? The data from ASIF and elsewhere strongly suggest the direction of travel is down at an accelerated pace. The postings in ASIF warn against predicting specific numbers. Remember the kickback when Prof Wadhams predicted ice-free arctic ocean last year ? The trolls are everywhere.
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