I made this in Nov '16 it has obvious conservatisms within the general maintaining of the last 10-year warming trendline through 2035. For example, a much more rapid removal of aerosols leading to further increased arctic warming producing rapid carbon cycle emissions from (once) frozen soils and a regional increase in albedo forcing which (by 2036) will be equal to approximately 1 watt per meter squared forcing (global average increase) but completely attributed to the arctic ocean.