First let me be very clear. Your post and my post are talking about two very different things.
you talked about:
When will the Arctic be sea ice free in the summer for the first time?
I talked about:
What happens after the first ice free Arctic, if anything?
So lets examine your claims:
The arctic gets really, really cold in winter. Even when it's warmer than usual, it's still below freezing. That's why most scientists who study the arctic don't think we'll see ice-free (less than 1,000,000 square km of ice) Septembers until the 2050s at the earliest.
And that is precisely why they are so wrong. The Arctic winter is already warming. It is warming very fast. This year we had local temperatures above 0 at the North Pole in February. The data set that best captures the winter warming is DMI's 2m temperatures north of 80.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpI suggest you examine winter temperature anomalies for the last 2 years and compare them to the rest of the dataset. The warming is obvious. This highly anomalous but consistent warming at the Arctic happened exactly at the same time as global temperatures jumped to the record levels we have now. Projections are that the globe will warm much more.
Worst of all the warming experienced in the arctic over the last two years is not directly because of CO2. The warming is a result of hot humid air from the Pacific and Atlantic entering the Arctic and causing havoc on the ice. This is due to disturbances in the atmosphere caused by changes in sea ice and the global jet streams. The waviness of the jet streams forces warm southern air into the Arctic creating a redistribution of heat towards the Arctic. That is not in the models because it didn't work that way before.
And even then, if we reduce our emissions, the Arctic will refreeze every winter and the loss of sea ice will plateau.
The ice will plateau only if global temperatures plateau. For that we have to significantly reduce emissions very fast. As of right now, that is just a pipe dream, specially with the effort of many despicable people attempting to hide the risks.
About the two papers you postedWonderful papers made by serious scientist, but they are wrong. They both ignore the changes in the jet streams that a reduced Arctic sea ice (among other things) produces.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3367-1The Arctic is currently undergoing drastic changes in climate, largely thought to be due to so-called ‘Arctic amplification’, whereby local feedbacks enhance global warming. Recently, a number of observational and modelling studies have questioned what the implications of this change in Arctic sea ice extent might be for weather in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and in particular whether recent extremely cold winters such as 2009/10 might be consistent with an influence from observed Arctic sea ice decline. However, the proposed mechanisms for these links have not been consistently demonstrated. In a uniquely comprehensive cross-season and cross-model study, we show that the CMIP5 models provide no support for a relationship between declining Arctic sea ice and a negative NAM, or between declining Barents–Kara sea ice and cold European temperatures. The lack of evidence for the proposed links is consistent with studies that report a low signal-to-noise ratio in these relationships. These results imply that, whilst links may exist between declining sea ice and extreme cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, the CMIP5 model experiments do not show this to be a leading order effect in the long-term. We argue that this is likely due to a combination of the limitations of the CMIP5 models and an indication of other important long-term influences on Northern Hemisphere climate.
So as you see, the events we are just recently witnessing are not properly acknowledged in the models used in what you posted. Climate scientists were expecting unknown unknowns. This is one of them.
Edit:I wanted to add the following, but posted by error.
In the regions north of the Bering Strait (north of 70° N), future open-water duration shifts from a current 3–4months to a projected near 5months by 2040 based on the mean of the twelve selected climate models
That is happening right now. See the Bering graph attached.